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Discussion of “Co-citation and Co-authorship Networks of Statisticians” by Pengsheng Ji, Jiashun Jin, Zheng Tracy Ke, and Wanshan Li 纪鹏生、金家顺、柯郑翠、李万山对“统计学家共引合著网络”的探讨
IF 3 2区 数学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2041423
Peter Macdonald, E. Levina, Ji Zhu
We congratulate the authors on an interesting paper and on making an important contribution to the network analysis community through compiling a large new dataset which will spur further work on multilayer, dynamic and other complex network settings. This discussion focuses on the paper’s particular methods and applications in dynamic network analysis. Complexity of dynamic network data leads to many necessary analyst choices in both data processing and network modeling. Where possible, we will compare the choices made in this paper with other possibilities from recent literature on dynamic network analysis. One of the important points of the paper is that much of our network data has always been dynamic. For instance, communication networks consisting of sent and received E-mails come with time stamps, whether we choose to incorporate them or not. Developing statistical methods that take advantage of this time varying structure will lead to greater efficiency, novel insights, and generally allow us to take full advantage of rich modern datasets like the one featured in this paper.
我们祝贺作者发表了一篇有趣的论文,并对网络分析社区做出了重要贡献,他们编纂了一个大型的新数据集,这将促进对多层、动态和其他复杂网络设置的进一步研究。本文着重讨论了本文在动态网络分析中的具体方法和应用。动态网络数据的复杂性导致分析人员在数据处理和网络建模方面有许多必要的选择。在可能的情况下,我们将把本文所做的选择与近期动态网络分析文献中的其他可能性进行比较。本文的重点之一是我们的网络数据一直是动态的。例如,由发送和接收电子邮件组成的通信网络带有时间戳,无论我们是否选择合并它们。开发利用这种时变结构的统计方法将带来更高的效率,新的见解,并且通常允许我们充分利用丰富的现代数据集,如本文所述的数据集。
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引用次数: 0
Data Come First: Discussion of “Co-citation and Co-authorship Networks of Statisticians” 数据至上:“统计学家的共同引用和合作网络”讨论
IF 3 2区 数学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2055356
D. Donoho
I salute the authors for their gift to the world of this new dataset! They have clearly invested plenty of time, effort, and IQ points in the study of the statistics literature as a bibliometric laboratory, and our field will grow and develop because of this dataset, as well as methodology the authors developed and/or fine-tuned with those data. Strikingly, the article also conveys a great deal of enthusiasm for the data! This seems such a departure from the pattern of many articles in statistics today. The enthusiastic spirit reminds me of some classic work by great figures in the history of statistics, who often were fascinated by new kinds of data which were just becoming available in their day, and who were inspired by the new data to invent fundamental new statistical tools and mathematical machinery. Francis Galton was interested in the relationships between father’s height and son’s height, himself compiling an extensive bivariate dataset of such heights, leading to the invention of the bivariate normal distribution and the correlation coefficient. Time and time again, new types of data came first, new types of models and methodology later. Indeed, this seems almost inevitable. As new technologies come onstream, new kinds of measurements become available, and new settings for data analysis and statistical inference emerge. This is plain to see in recent decades, where computational biology produced gene expression data, DNA sequence data, SNP data, and RNA-Seq data, each new data type leading to interesting methodological challenges and scientific progress. For me, each effort by a statistics researcher to understand a newly available type of data enlarges our field; it should be a primary part of the career of statisticians to cultivate an interest in cultivating new types of datasets, so that new methodology can be discovered and developed.
我向作者们向这个新数据集的世界致敬!他们显然已经投入了大量的时间、精力和智商,作为一个文献计量学实验室来研究统计文献,我们的领域将因为这个数据集以及作者开发和/或对这些数据进行微调的方法而成长和发展。引人注目的是,这篇文章还表达了对数据的极大热情!这似乎与当今许多统计学文章的模式大相径庭。这种热情的精神让我想起了统计史上一些伟大人物的经典作品,他们经常被他们那个时代刚刚出现的新数据所吸引,并受到新数据的启发,发明了基本的新统计工具和数学机制。弗朗西斯·高尔顿对父亲身高和儿子身高之间的关系很感兴趣,他自己编制了一个关于这种身高的广泛的二元数据集,从而发明了二元正态分布和相关系数。一次又一次,新类型的数据先出现,然后是新类型的模型和方法。事实上,这似乎是不可避免的。随着新技术的出现,新的测量方法变得可行,数据分析和统计推断的新设置也出现了。这在最近几十年显而易见,计算生物学产生了基因表达数据、DNA序列数据、SNP数据和RNA-Seq数据,每一种新的数据类型都带来了有趣的方法论挑战和科学进步。对我来说,统计研究者为理解一种新的可用数据类型所做的每一次努力都扩大了我们的研究领域;培养培养新型数据集的兴趣应该是统计学家职业生涯的主要部分,这样才能发现和开发新的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Bootstrapping Two-Stage Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Time Series Models 时间序列模型的自举两阶段拟极大似然估计
IF 3 2区 数学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2058949
Sílvia Gonçalves, Ulrich Hounyo, Andrew J. Patton, Kevin Sheppard
Abstract This article provides results on the validity of bootstrap inference methods for two-stage quasi-maximum likelihood estimation involving time series data, such as those used for multivariate volatility models or copula-based models. Existing approaches require the researcher to compute and combine many first- and second-order derivatives, which can be difficult to do and is susceptible to error. Bootstrap methods are simpler to apply, allowing the substitution of capital (CPU cycles) for labor (keeping track of derivatives). We show the consistency of the bootstrap distribution and consistency of bootstrap variance estimators, thereby justifying the use of bootstrap percentile intervals and bootstrap standard errors.
摘要本文提供了涉及时间序列数据的两阶段拟最大似然估计的bootstrap推理方法的有效性结果,例如用于多变量波动率模型或基于copula的模型的Bootstra推理方法。现有的方法需要研究人员计算和组合许多一阶和二阶导数,这可能很难做到,而且容易出错。Bootstrap方法应用起来更简单,允许用资本(CPU周期)代替劳动力(跟踪衍生品)。我们展示了自举分布的一致性和自举方差估计的一致性,从而证明了自举百分区间和自举标准误差的使用。
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引用次数: 5
Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of U.S. GDP 利用调查信息改进美国GDP的密度临近预测
IF 3 2区 数学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-03-28 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2058000
Cem Çakmakl i, Hamza Demircan
Abstract We provide a methodology that efficiently combines the statistical models of nowcasting with the survey information for improving the (density) nowcasting of U.S. real GDP. Specifically, we use the conventional dynamic factor model together with stochastic volatility components as the baseline statistical model. We augment the model with information from the survey expectations by aligning the first and second moments of the predictive distribution implied by this baseline model with those extracted from the survey information at various horizons. Results indicate that survey information bears valuable information over the baseline model for nowcasting GDP. While the mean survey predictions deliver valuable information during extreme events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the variation in the survey participants’ predictions, often used as a measure of “ambiguity,” conveys crucial information beyond the mean of those predictions for capturing the tail behavior of the GDP distribution.
摘要我们提供了一种方法,该方法有效地将即时预报的统计模型与调查信息相结合,以改进美国实际GDP的(密度)即时预报。具体而言,我们使用传统的动态因素模型和随机波动性成分作为基线统计模型。我们通过将该基线模型所隐含的预测分布的第一和第二矩与从不同层面的调查信息中提取的矩相一致,用调查预期的信息来增强模型。结果表明,调查信息比预测GDP的基线模型具有有价值的信息。虽然平均调查预测在新冠肺炎大流行等极端事件期间提供了有价值的信息,但调查参与者预测的变化(通常被用作“模糊性”的衡量标准)传达的关键信息超出了这些预测的平均值,无法捕捉GDP分布的尾部行为。
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引用次数: 2
Post-selection Inference of High-dimensional Logistic Regression Under Case–Control Design 病例控制设计下高维逻辑回归的后选择推理
IF 3 2区 数学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-03-10 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2050245
Yuanyuan Lin, Jinhan Xie, Ruijian Han, Niansheng Tang
Abstract Confidence sets are of key importance in high-dimensional statistical inference. Under case–control study, a popular response-selective sampling design in medical study or econometrics, we consider the confidence intervals and statistical tests for single or low-dimensional parameters in high-dimensional logistic regression model. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established under mild conditions. We also study statistical tests for testing more general and complex hypotheses of the high-dimensional parameters. The general testing procedures are proved to be asymptotically exact and have satisfactory power. Numerical studies including extensive simulations and a real data example confirm that the proposed method performs well in practical settings.
摘要置信集是高维统计推断的关键。病例对照研究是医学研究或计量经济学中常见的一种响应选择抽样设计,我们在高维逻辑回归模型中考虑单维或低维参数的置信区间和统计检验。在温和的条件下,得到了估计量的渐近性质。我们还研究了用于检验更一般和复杂的高维参数假设的统计检验。证明了一般的检验方法是渐近精确的,并具有令人满意的幂。数值研究包括大量的模拟和一个实际数据实例,证实了该方法在实际环境中的良好性能。
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引用次数: 1
Circularly Projected Common Factors for Grouped Data 分组数据的循环投影共同因子
IF 3 2区 数学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-03-10 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2051520
Mingjing Chen
Abstract To extract the common factors from grouped data, multilevel factor models have been put forward in the literature, and methods based on iterative principal component analysis (PCA) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA) have been proposed for estimation purpose. While iterative PCA requires iteration and is hence time-consuming, CCA can only deal with two groups of data. Herein, we develop two new methods to address these problems. We first extract the factors within groups and then project the estimated group factors into the space spanned by them in a circular manner. We propose two projection processes to estimate the common factors and determine the number of them. The new methods do not require iteration and are thus computationally efficient. They can estimate the common factors for multiple groups of data in a uniform way, regardless of whether the number of groups is large or small. They not only overcome the drawbacks of CCA but also nest the CCA method as a special case. Finally, we theoretically and numerically study the consistency properties of these new methods and apply them to studying international business cycles and the comovements of retail prices.
摘要为了从分组数据中提取共同因素,文献中提出了多层次因素模型,并提出了基于迭代主成分分析(PCA)和规范相关分析(CCA)的估计方法。虽然迭代PCA需要迭代,因此耗时,但CCA只能处理两组数据。在此,我们开发了两种新方法来解决这些问题。我们首先提取组内的因子,然后将估计的组因子以圆形方式投影到它们所跨越的空间中。我们提出了两个投影过程来估计公共因子并确定它们的数量。新方法不需要迭代,因此计算效率高。他们可以以统一的方式估计多组数据的共同因素,无论组的数量是大还是小。它们不仅克服了CCA的缺点,而且将CCA方法作为一个特例。最后,我们从理论和数值上研究了这些新方法的一致性性质,并将其应用于研究国际商业周期和零售价格的协动。
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引用次数: 2
Fast Variational Bayes Methods for Multinomial Probit Models 多项式问题模型的快速变分Bayes方法
IF 3 2区 数学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-25 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2139267
Rub'en Loaiza-Maya, D. Nibbering
Abstract The multinomial probit model is often used to analyze choice behavior. However, estimation with existing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is computationally costly, which limits its applicability to large choice datasets. This article proposes a variational Bayes method that is accurate and fast, even when a large number of choice alternatives and observations are considered. Variational methods usually require an analytical expression for the unnormalized posterior density and an adequate choice of variational family. Both are challenging to specify in a multinomial probit, which has a posterior that requires identifying restrictions and is augmented with a large set of latent utilities. We employ a spherical transformation on the covariance matrix of the latent utilities to construct an unnormalized augmented posterior that identifies the parameters, and use the conditional posterior of the latent utilities as part of the variational family. The proposed method is faster than MCMC, and can be made scalable to both a large number of choice alternatives and a large number of observations. The accuracy and scalability of our method is illustrated in numerical experiments and real purchase data with one million observations.
摘要多项概率模型是分析选择行为的常用方法。然而,现有的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)估计方法计算量大,限制了其对大选择数据集的适用性。本文提出了一种变分贝叶斯方法,即使考虑了大量的选择和观测值,也能准确而快速地进行分析。变分方法通常需要非归一化后验密度的解析表达式和变分族的适当选择。两者在多项式概率中都具有挑战性,因为多项式概率具有后验,需要识别限制条件,并且具有大量潜在效用。我们在潜在效用的协方差矩阵上采用球面变换来构建一个识别参数的非归一化增广后验,并使用潜在效用的条件后验作为变分族的一部分。所提出的方法比MCMC更快,并且可以扩展到大量的选择选项和大量的观测值。数值实验和百万次实际采购数据验证了该方法的准确性和可扩展性。
{"title":"Fast Variational Bayes Methods for Multinomial Probit Models","authors":"Rub'en Loaiza-Maya, D. Nibbering","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2139267","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2139267","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The multinomial probit model is often used to analyze choice behavior. However, estimation with existing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is computationally costly, which limits its applicability to large choice datasets. This article proposes a variational Bayes method that is accurate and fast, even when a large number of choice alternatives and observations are considered. Variational methods usually require an analytical expression for the unnormalized posterior density and an adequate choice of variational family. Both are challenging to specify in a multinomial probit, which has a posterior that requires identifying restrictions and is augmented with a large set of latent utilities. We employ a spherical transformation on the covariance matrix of the latent utilities to construct an unnormalized augmented posterior that identifies the parameters, and use the conditional posterior of the latent utilities as part of the variational family. The proposed method is faster than MCMC, and can be made scalable to both a large number of choice alternatives and a large number of observations. The accuracy and scalability of our method is illustrated in numerical experiments and real purchase data with one million observations.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45179652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Ordered Probit Model with Random Effects 具有随机效应的自回归面板有序概率模型的复合似然估计
IF 3 2区 数学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-24 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2044829
Kerem Tuzcuoglu
Abstract Modeling and estimating autocorrelated discrete data can be challenging. In this article, we use an autoregressive panel ordered probit model where the serial correlation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a nonlinear model, the presence of a lagged latent variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals. To tackle this problem, we use composite likelihoods that involve a much lower order of integration. However, parameter identification might potentially become problematic since the information employed in lower dimensional distributions may not be rich enough for identification. Therefore, we characterize types of composite likelihoods that are valid for this model and study conditions under which the parameters can be identified. Moreover, we provide consistency and asymptotic normality results for two different composite likelihood estimators and conduct Monte Carlo studies to assess their finite-sample performances. Finally, we apply our method to analyze corporate bond ratings. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
摘要建模和估计自相关离散数据可能具有挑战性。在本文中,我们使用了一个自回归面板有序probit模型,其中离散变量中的序列相关性由潜在变量中的自相关驱动。在这样的非线性模型中,滞后潜变量的存在导致了包含高维积分的难以处理的似然性。为了解决这个问题,我们使用了包含低阶积分的复合可能性。然而,参数识别可能会成为潜在的问题,因为在低维分布中使用的信息可能不够丰富,无法进行识别。因此,我们描述了对该模型有效的复合可能性的类型,并研究了可以识别参数的条件。此外,我们提供了两种不同的复合似然估计的一致性和渐近正态性结果,并进行了蒙特卡罗研究来评估它们的有限样本性能。最后,我们将我们的方法应用于分析公司债券评级。本文的补充材料可在线获取。
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引用次数: 3
Discussion of “Co-citation and Co-authorship Networks of Statisticians” 关于“统计学家的共同引用和合作网络”的讨论
IF 3 2区 数学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-22 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2044335
X. Zhu, E. Kolaczyk
We thank the authors for their new contribution to a high quality dataset and interesting findings from the modeling and analysis of the co-citation and co-authorship networks of statisticians. Leveraging this dataset, there are lots of additional questions that might be answered, and analyses done. Network motif analysis is one such, with roots in the triad census of traditional social network analysis (Wasserman and Faust 1994, chap. 14.2.1) and first introduced in its modern form by Milo et al. (2002) in systems biology. It has since been applied to various scientific domains, for example, social science, neuroscience, to study network structures and the underlying complex systems (see Stone, Simberloff, and Artzy-Randrup (2019) for a survey article). While the notion of network motif was originally defined for static networks as small subgraph patterns occurring frequently in a given network, several ways have been proposed to extend it to dynamic networks consisting of a set of vertices and a collection of timestamped edges. One widely used one is from Paranjape, Benson, and Leskovec (2017), where temporal motifs are defined as an ordered sequence of timestamped edges among a subset of nodes conforming to a specified pattern as well as a specified duration of time δ in which the edges must occur. In contrast to their static counterparts, such temporal motifs take into account not only subgraph isomorphism but also edge ordering and duration, which can be regarded as the simple building blocks for temporal structures of dynamic networks. There are a few works in the literature on motif analysis for journal citation networks (Wu, Han, and Li 2008; Zeng and Rong 2021) and author collaboration networks (Chakraborty, Ganguly, and Mukherjee 2015), but none of them seem to be from the perspective of temporal motifs. In this discussion, we construct temporal citation networks among statisticians using the publication data provided in the article, and focus on analyzing the frequency and distribution of temporal motifs in such dynamic networks. This analysis provides initial insights into the temporal patterns of citing behaviors among authors of various statistics journals from 1975 to 2015.
我们感谢作者对高质量数据集的新贡献,以及对统计学家的共同引用和共同作者网络的建模和分析得出的有趣发现。利用这个数据集,还有很多额外的问题可能会得到回答,并进行分析。网络基序分析就是其中之一,其根源于传统社会网络分析的三元普查(Wasserman和Faust 1994,第14.2.1章),并由Milo等人(2002)在系统生物学中首次以现代形式引入。此后,它被应用于各种科学领域,例如社会科学、神经科学,以研究网络结构和潜在的复杂系统(见Stone、Simberloff和Artzy Randrup(2019)的调查文章)。虽然网络基序的概念最初是为静态网络定义的,即在给定网络中频繁出现的小子图模式,但已经提出了几种方法将其扩展到由一组顶点和一组带时间戳的边组成的动态网络。一种广泛使用的模式来自Paranjape、Benson和Leskovec(2017),其中时间基序被定义为符合特定模式以及边缘必须出现的特定持续时间δ的节点子集中的带时间戳的边缘的有序序列。与静态基序相比,这种时间基序不仅考虑了子图同构,还考虑了边序和持续时间,这可以被视为动态网络时间结构的简单构建块。文献中有一些关于期刊引文网络主题分析的作品(吴、韩和李,2008;曾和荣,2021)和作者合作网络(Chakraborty、Ganguly和Mukherjee,2015),但似乎都不是从时间主题的角度出发的。在这篇讨论中,我们利用文章中提供的发表数据构建了统计学家之间的时间引文网络,并重点分析了时间基序在这种动态网络中的频率和分布。这项分析为1975年至2015年各种统计期刊作者引用行为的时间模式提供了初步见解。
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引用次数: 1
Discussion of “Co-citation and Co-authorship Networks of Statisticians” 关于“统计学家的共同引用和合作网络”的讨论
IF 3 2区 数学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-22 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2044828
J. Loyal, Yuguo Chen
We want to congratulate the authors on a fascinating article containing an insightful analysis and their hard work curating the high-quality co-citation and co-authorship networks. These datasets alone are a valuable contribution to the statistics profes-sion, which will undoubtedly inspire future data science projects and advances in methodology. In fact, we are eager to use these networks in our own classrooms and research. Furthermore, the authors use these networks to tackling exciting questions in network science that go beyond the familiar problems of edge imputation and predicting node labels. In doing so, the authors perform a terrific analysis accompanied by exciting new methodology. This analysis serves as a great first step in understanding these networks, and the ideas initiated in this article will certainly stimulate many further research questions. For how do influence the research Or,
我们要祝贺作者们发表了一篇引人入胜的文章,其中包含了深刻的分析,以及他们在管理高质量的共同引用和共同作者网络方面所做的辛勤工作。仅这些数据集就对统计学专业做出了宝贵贡献,这无疑将激励未来的数据科学项目和方法论进步。事实上,我们渴望在自己的课堂和研究中使用这些网络。此外,作者使用这些网络来解决网络科学中令人兴奋的问题,这些问题超出了人们熟悉的边缘插补和预测节点标签的问题。在这样做的过程中,作者进行了出色的分析,并采用了令人兴奋的新方法。这一分析是理解这些网络的第一步,本文提出的想法肯定会引发许多进一步的研究问题。对于如何影响研究或者,
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
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