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Sensitivity analysis of the physics options in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for typhoon forecasting in Japan and its impacts on storm surge simulations 日本台风预报模式物理选项的敏感性分析及其对风暴潮模拟的影响
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/21664250.2022.2124040
T. Shirai, Y. Enomoto, Masashi Watanabe, T. Arikawa
ABSTRACT Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is useful for forecasting typhoons as an external force of storm surge forecasts. This study examines the variation in typhoon forecasts caused by different choices of arbitrary physics options in WRF and their influence on storm surge forecasts. Eight frequently used combinations of cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layers were extracted via a review of previous studies. Subsequently, sensitivity analyses of these physics options were performed, targeting nine typhoons that landed in Japan during 2015–2019. Additionally, we conducted case studies of storm surge ensemble forecasts in Tokyo Bay and Osaka Bay using WRF-simulated typhoons generated in the sensitivity analysis. As a result, the ensemble mean of the forecasts was comparable to the storm surge reanalysis simulation results obtained using an empirical typhoon model wherein the best track data is integrated to reproduce atmospheric fields. This may be attributed to the fact that the typhoon parameters (intensity, size, approaching angle, and velocity) obtained from the best track at landfall were generally within the range of the parameters that were simulated using WRF.
摘要天气研究与预报(WRF)模型作为风暴潮预报的外力,对台风的预报是有用的。本研究考察了WRF中任意物理选项的不同选择导致的台风预报的变化及其对风暴潮预报的影响。通过回顾以前的研究,提取了八种常用的云微物理和行星边界层组合。随后,针对2015-2019年间登陆日本的9个台风,对这些物理选项进行了敏感性分析。此外,我们还使用敏感性分析中生成的WRF模拟台风,对东京湾和大阪湾的风暴潮集合预报进行了案例研究。因此,预测的总体平均值与使用经验台风模型获得的风暴潮再分析模拟结果相当,其中整合了最佳轨迹数据以再现大气场。这可能是因为从登陆时的最佳路径获得的台风参数(强度、大小、接近角和速度)通常在使用WRF模拟的参数范围内。
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引用次数: 1
Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia 基于东亚最大潜在风暴潮模型的极端风暴潮未来变化
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/21664250.2022.2145682
Sotaro Mori, T. Shimura, T. Miyashita, A. Webb, N. Mori
ABSTRACT We analyzed tropical cyclones (TC) based on the theory of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) and Maximum Potential Surge (MPS) for a long-term assessment of extreme TC intensity and storm surge heights. We investigated future changes in the MPI fields and MPS for different global warming levels based on 150-year continuous scenario projections (HighResMIP) and large ensemble climate projections (d4PDF/d2PDF). Focusing on the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNP), we analyzed future changes in the MPI and found that it reached a maximum in the latitudinal range of 30–40°N in September. We also analyzed future changes in the MPS in major bays of East Asia and along the Pacific coast of Japan. Future changes in the MPS were projected, and it was confirmed that changes in the MPS are larger in bays where large storm surge events have occurred in the past.
摘要:我们基于最大潜在强度(MPI)和最大潜在涌浪(MPS)理论对热带气旋(TC)进行了分析,以长期评估热带气旋的极端强度和风暴潮高度。我们基于150年连续情景预测(HighResMIP)和大集合气候预测(d4PDF/d2PDF),研究了不同全球变暖水平下MPI场和MPS的未来变化。以北太平洋西部(WNP)为重点,我们分析了MPI的未来变化,发现它在9月份的30–40°N纬度范围内达到了最大值。我们还分析了东亚主要海湾和日本太平洋沿岸MPS的未来变化。预测了MPS的未来变化,并证实在过去发生过大型风暴潮事件的海湾中,MPS的变化更大。
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引用次数: 0
Quantile regression analysis of time-space variation characteristics of tropical cyclones in the west North Pacific basin under global warming 全球变暖条件下北太平洋盆地西部热带气旋时空变化特征的分位数回归分析
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/21664250.2022.2129516
X. J. Wang, J. W. Yang, B. Huang, J. Cao
ABSTRACT The enormous economic losses and casualties were caused by tropical cyclones in the southeast coastal areas of China every year. In order to understand the time-space variation characteristics of tropical cyclones (including intensity, minimum central atmosphere pressure, duration, and generation position) in the global and the western North Pacific basin, the monthly and interannual variation characteristics of tropical cyclones from 1949 to 2018 were analyzed by the quantile regression method and least square regression method. The results show that the global climate temperature and the annual maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones have a tendency to increase under different quantiles. While the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones generated in the WNP basin basically decreases with the increase of years in El Niño, La Niña, and normal years under different quantiles. It is obvious that the interannual variation of the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones is affected by the ENSO events. Similarly, minimum central atmospheric pressure, duration, and generation position of TCs from 1949 to 2018 are also analyzed in the present study. The results of this study can provide an effective reference for data analysis and trend prediction of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin.
热带气旋每年都会给中国东南沿海地区造成巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡。为了解全球和北太平洋西部热带气旋(包括强度、最低中心气压、持续时间和产生位置)的时空变化特征,采用分位数回归和最小二乘回归方法分析了1949 - 2018年热带气旋的月变化特征和年际变化特征。结果表明:全球气候温度和热带气旋年最大风速在不同分位数下都有增大的趋势;而在不同分位数下,El Niño、La Niña和正常年,WNP盆地产生的热带气旋最大风速基本随年数的增加而减小。热带气旋最大风速的年际变化明显受到ENSO事件的影响。同样,本研究还分析了1949 - 2018年的最低中心气压、持续时间和tc的产生位置。研究结果可为北太平洋西部热带气旋的数据分析和趋势预测提供有效参考。
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引用次数: 0
Hydrodynamic characteristics of emerged modular porous reef breakwaters 已出现的模块化多孔礁防波堤的水动力特性
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/21664250.2022.2143322
V. K. Srineash, K. Murali
ABSTRACT The wave interaction with porous reef breakwaters is investigated in this study through extensive laboratory experiments. The research is focussed on bringing out the hydrodynamic characteristics, such as wave transmission and wave reflection coefficient of reef breakwaters in emerged conditions. Design equations for estimating the transmission and reflection coefficients for emerged porous reef breakwaters are presented. The developed equations will be beneficial in deciding the dimension of the reef breakwaters for a given wave condition. The presence of Reef-Induced wave Breaking (RIB) was observed for certain combination of wave and reef parameters. The effects of hydrodynamic processes observed during the study, namely, RIB and overtopping in relation to the performance of the emerged porous reef breakwaters is discussed. Furthermore, the wave-induced pressures exerted over the reef breakwaters are measured on the seaside, leeside and at the midsection of the reef breakwater. A thorough analysis has been carried out to ascertain the magnitudes of hydrodynamic pressures which has got an important bearing in understanding the magnitude of wave induced forces on the reef breakwaters. Through detailed parametric investigations, the study brings out the parameters that govern the hydrodynamic performance and wave-induced pressures over the emerged reef breakwaters.
摘要本研究通过大量的实验室实验,研究了波浪与多孔礁防波堤的相互作用。研究的重点是揭示出现条件下暗礁防波堤的波浪传输和波浪反射系数等水动力特性。提出了估算出水多孔礁防波堤透射系数和反射系数的设计方程。所开发的方程将有助于在给定波浪条件下确定暗礁防波堤的尺寸。在波浪和珊瑚礁参数的特定组合下,观察到了珊瑚礁诱导波破裂(RIB)的存在。讨论了研究期间观察到的水动力过程,即RIB和漫顶对出现的多孔礁防波堤性能的影响。此外,还测量了施加在防波堤海边、背侧和中段的波浪压力。已经进行了彻底的分析以确定水动力压力的大小,这对理解波浪对礁防波堤的作用力的大小具有重要意义。通过详细的参数研究,该研究得出了控制出礁防波堤水动力性能和波浪诱导压力的参数。
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引用次数: 0
Stochastic source modeling and tsunami simulations of cascadia subduction earthquakes for Canadian Pacific coast 加拿大太平洋海岸cascadia俯冲地震的随机震源模拟和海啸模拟
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/21664250.2022.2139918
K. Goda
ABSTRACT This study presents new stochastic source models for the Cascadia subduction earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest, which can trigger massive tsunamis along the shoreline of Vancouver Island. An extensive set of 5,000 stochastic source models is generated for the moment magnitude ranges between 8.1 and 9.1, and regional tsunami hazard simulations are performed at the grid resolution of 270 m. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations are characterized by evaluating the regional tsunami hazard metric that is based on the geometric mean of the maximum wave heights along the Vancouver Island coast. Subsequently, using the probability distribution of the regional tsunami hazard parameter, representative source models are identified by capturing the average as well as rare rupture cases and then detailed tsunami hazard results, such as maximum wave height maps and wave profiles at specific locations, are examined. Numerical results highlight the directivity effects of tsunami generation and wave propagation on tsunami hazards along the Canadian Pacific coast and the earthquake source characterizations in terms of fault geometry and earthquake slip distribution. The developed source models and tsunami simulation results serve as the first step for performing probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for the Cascadia subduction zone.
摘要本研究提出了太平洋西北部卡斯卡迪亚俯冲地震的新随机震源模型,该地震可在温哥华岛海岸线引发大规模海啸。针对8.1至9.1之间的矩震级范围,生成了一组5000个随机震源模型,并以270m的网格分辨率进行了区域海啸灾害模拟。随机海啸模拟的结果通过评估基于温哥华岛沿岸最大波高几何平均值的区域海啸危险性指标来表征。随后,利用区域海啸灾害参数的概率分布,通过捕捉平均和罕见的破裂情况来识别具有代表性的震源模型,然后检查详细的海啸灾害结果,如特定位置的最大波高图和波浪剖面。数值结果突出了海啸发生和波浪传播对加拿大太平洋沿岸海啸灾害的方向性影响,以及断层几何形状和地震滑移分布方面的震源特征。所开发的震源模型和海啸模拟结果是对卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带进行概率海啸危险分析的第一步。
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引用次数: 3
Statistical modeling of undertow on a natural beach 天然海滩暗流的统计模型
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/21664250.2022.2122374
Borribunnangkun Kullachart, Takayuki Suzuki
ABSTRACT To better understand the physical mechanism of undertow, field observations were conducted during barred and planar beach states on the Hasaki coast in Japan. The two observation periods spanned 21 days from May 13 to June 2 in 2016, and 13 days from May 9 to May 22 in 2017, respectively. A horizontal acoustic Doppler current profiler was used to measure the undertow velocity and water level. The observed data were statistically analyzed to investigate the characteristics of the spatial and wave-energetic distributions of the undertow exceedance probability, PE . The results reveal that when the wave energy flux level was high, the undertow velocity increased, as did its PE . By contrast, the undertow PE during a low-wave-energy level decreased with greater water depths. Here, a Weibull distribution was applied to explain PE of the undertow. The Weibull parameters: scale and shape were estimated by the combination of normalized values of the wave energy flux, relative surf zone locations, and normalized water depths, and this generalized equation was considered a statistical model for estimating undertow PE . A comparison of the statistical model against the measurement demonstrates that the model accurately predicted the undertow PE with a small error.
摘要为了更好地了解暗流的物理机制,在日本长崎海岸的条形和平面海滩状态下进行了实地观测。这两个观测期分别为2016年5月13日至6月2日的21天和2017年5月9日至5月22日的13天。利用水平声学多普勒海流剖面仪测量了潜流速度和水位。对观测数据进行统计分析,以研究潜流超越概率PE的空间和波浪能量分布特征。结果表明,当波浪能量通量水平高时,潜流速度增加,其PE也增加。相比之下,在低波浪能级期间,潜流PE随着水深的增加而减小。在这里,威布尔分布被应用来解释潜流的PE。威布尔参数:尺度和形状是通过波浪能量通量的归一化值、相对冲浪区位置和归一化水深的组合来估计的,并且该广义方程被认为是估计潜流PE的统计模型。统计模型与测量结果的比较表明,该模型准确地预测了潜流PE,误差较小。
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引用次数: 0
A new dual earthquake and submarine landslide source model for the 28 September 2018 Palu (Sulawesi), Indonesia tsunami 2018年9月28日印度尼西亚巴鲁(苏拉威西)海啸的一个新的双重地震和海底滑坡源模型
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-09-19 DOI: 10.1080/21664250.2022.2122293
M. Heidarzadeh, I. Mulia
ABSTRACT The September 2018 Palu (Sulawesi, Indonesia) tsunami has been a heavily debated event because multiple source models of three different types have been proposed for this tsunami: (i) The Mw 7.5 earthquake, (ii) landslides, and (iii) dual earthquake and landslide. Surprisingly, all of these three types of models were reported as being successful in the literature in terms of reproducing the existing tsunami observations. This can be partly attributed to the limited observations available for this tsunami. This study is motivated by the results of a marine bathymetric survey, which identified evidence for submarine landslides within the Palu Bay. Our modeling shows that the tsunami cannot be exclusively attributed to the Mw 7.5 earthquake. Inspired by the results of the marine survey, we propose a dual source model including a submarine landslide although most of the existing models include subaerial coastal landslides. Our dual model comprises an earthquake model, which has a length of 264 km, a width of 37 km, and a slip of 0–8.5 m, combined with a submarine landslide with a length of 1.0 km, a width of 2.0 km, and a thickness of 80.0 m located at 119.823°E and −0.792°S.
摘要2018年9月巴鲁(印度尼西亚苏拉威西)海啸一直是一个备受争议的事件,因为已经为这次海啸提出了三种不同类型的多源模型:(i)7.5级地震,(ii)滑坡,以及(iii)双重地震和滑坡。令人惊讶的是,所有这三种类型的模型在文献中都被报道为在再现现有海啸观测方面是成功的。这在一定程度上可以归因于对这次海啸的观测有限。这项研究的动机是海洋测深调查的结果,该调查确定了巴鲁湾海底滑坡的证据。我们的模型表明,海啸不能完全归因于7.5级地震。受海洋调查结果的启发,我们提出了一个包括海底滑坡的双源模型,尽管大多数现有模型包括陆上海岸滑坡。我们的双重模型包括一个长264公里、宽37公里、滑动0–8.5米的地震模型,以及位于119.823°E和−0.792°S的长1.0公里、宽2.0公里、厚80.0米的海底滑坡。
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引用次数: 5
A composite approach towards understanding the mechanisms and driving variables of river mouth variability: A case study of the Da Dien River mouth 一种理解河口变化机制和驱动变量的综合方法——以大奠河口为例
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-09-19 DOI: 10.1080/21664250.2022.2124046
Nhu Y Nguyen, Duy Huy Binh Pham, Thu Thao Hoang, Van Sy Pham, Dang Dinh Kha, Tien Giang Nguyen
ABSTRACT This research aims to present a composite approach to characterizing the intra-annual and interannual variability in inlet throat width and understanding its mechanism (how, when, and why it varies). The techniques used include remote sensing imagery analysis, spectral and cross-spectral analyses, correlation analyses, and random forest variable importance. The Da Dien River mouth (DDRM), which is located in southern Central Vietnam and experiences a strong annual signal of climate regimes, was selected as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the approach. The results show that the narrowing/widening of the DDRM throat width is highly dynamic and variable under the significant dominant influence of wave height, tide and river flow, which seasonally and interannually vary according to the monsoon regime, El Niño/Southern Oscillation and sunspot number variations (better correlation with ENSO events). The overall throat width decreases during El Niño/the positive QBO phase and increases during La Niña periods/the negative QBO phase. The difference in river flow magnitudes is the main cause for the constriction/expansion of the DDRM throat width. The successful application of the study approach to the DDRM case study demonstrates its usefulness and ability to be applied to other case studies in tropical monsoon regions.
摘要本研究旨在提出一种综合方法来表征入口喉部宽度的年内和年际变化,并了解其机制(如何、何时以及为什么变化)。所使用的技术包括遥感图像分析、光谱和交叉光谱分析、相关性分析和随机森林变量重要性。Da Dien河口(DDRM)位于越南中南部,每年都有强烈的气候变化信号,被选为案例研究,以证明该方法的适用性。结果表明,在波高、潮汐和河流流量的显著主导影响下,DDRM喉部宽度的变窄/加宽是高度动态和可变的,这些因素随季风、厄尔尼诺/南方涛动和太阳黑子数的变化而季节性和年际变化(与ENSO事件的相关性更好)。总喉部宽度在厄尔尼诺/正QBO阶段减小,在拉尼娜/负QBO阶段增大。河流流量大小的差异是DDRM喉部宽度收缩/扩张的主要原因。该研究方法在DDRM案例研究中的成功应用证明了其在热带季风地区其他案例研究中应用的有用性和能力。
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引用次数: 0
Long-term observation of current at the mouth of Tokyo Bay 东京湾河口海流的长期观测
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-09-13 DOI: 10.1080/21664250.2022.2122300
S. Hosokawa, Shota Okura
ABSTRACT Current patterns at the mouth of Tokyo Bay have been observed since the 1970s. However, earlier studies using short-term observations and numerical analyses were too limited in their spatiotemporal scale. This study analyzed long-term observations (over a decade) obtained using an acoustic Doppler current profiler mounted on a ferry that crosses the mouth of the bay. This long-term observation dataset revealed that tidal currents dominated at the bay mouth, and that an estuarine circulation of residual current was associated with inflow into the bay along topographic pathways formed by the Tokyo Submarine Canyon and the Uraga Channel. The water volume of the inflow was substantially greater than the discharge of the four major rivers flowing into Tokyo Bay. Although the mean residual current of the surface layer on the east side was outflow, it was variable with substantial and frequent inflow from the ocean, which might have caused an oceanic environment on the east side. Analysis of the long-term observations elucidated the spatial mean picture and temporal variability of the current patterns at the mouth of Tokyo Bay. This improved knowledge and the extended dataset will help answer remaining questions regarding the water quality in Tokyo Bay.
摘要自20世纪70年代以来,人们一直在观察东京湾河口的洋流模式。然而,早期使用短期观测和数值分析的研究在时空尺度上过于有限。这项研究分析了使用安装在穿越海湾河口的渡轮上的声学多普勒海流剖面仪获得的长期观测结果(超过十年)。这一长期观测数据集显示,潮流在海湾口占主导地位,残余流的河口环流与沿东京海底峡谷和浦贺海峡形成的地形路径流入海湾有关。流入的水量远远大于流入东京湾的四条主要河流的流量。尽管东侧表层的平均残余流是外流,但随着大量频繁的海洋流入,它是可变的,这可能导致了东侧的海洋环境。对长期观测结果的分析阐明了东京湾河口洋流模式的空间平均图和时间变异性。这些改进的知识和扩展的数据集将有助于回答有关东京湾水质的剩余问题。
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引用次数: 1
A new predictive equation for estimating wave period of subaerial solid-block landslide-generated waves 一种估算陆上固体块体滑坡波周期的新预测方程
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-09-04 DOI: 10.1080/21664250.2022.2110657
R. Sabeti, M. Heidarzadeh
ABSTRACT In the aftermath of the deadly 2018 Anak Krakatau tsunami (Indonesia) and associated confusions over its modeling and generation mechanism, there has been an urgent need for further studies to improve our understanding of landslide-generated tsunamis. Two important factors in accurate modeling of landslide tsunamis are the wave period and the initial wave amplitude. Here, we apply a physical modeling approach and develop an empirical equation to predict the dominant wave period generated by solid-block subaerial landslide tsunamis. Fifty-one laboratory experiments are conducted at different water depths and using four different concrete blocks for the sliding masses. The results are consequently employed to derive a predictive equation for the wave period of solid-block subaerial landslide tsunamis. An innovation of this study is that we apply data from different scales (laboratory and field scales) to produce our predictive equation. For field data, the data from the 2018 Anak Krakatau event is used. We compared our predictive equation with other previously-published equations. To confirm the validity of our predictive equation, it is applied for the prediction of the wave period of an independent landslide tsunami event whose data was not used for the derivation of the equation.
2018年印尼喀拉喀托阿纳克海啸发生后,人们对其建模和产生机制存在诸多困惑,迫切需要进一步研究以提高我们对滑坡引发的海啸的认识。准确模拟滑坡海啸的两个重要因素是波周期和初始波幅。在这里,我们采用物理模拟方法,并开发了一个经验方程来预测固体块体陆上滑坡海啸产生的主导波周期。在不同的水深和使用四种不同的混凝土块作为滑动块进行了51个实验室实验。结果可用于推导固体块体陆上滑坡海啸波周期的预测方程。这项研究的一个创新之处在于,我们应用了来自不同尺度(实验室和现场尺度)的数据来产生我们的预测方程。对于现场数据,使用2018年喀拉喀托火山事件的数据。我们将我们的预测方程与之前发表的其他方程进行了比较。为了验证该预测方程的有效性,将其应用于一次独立滑坡海啸事件的波周期预测,该事件的数据未用于方程的推导。
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引用次数: 1
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Coastal Engineering Journal
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