Pub Date : 2024-12-25DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108511
Thomas Røkås, Erik Gómez-Baggethun
The ‘doughnut economics’ sustainability framework defines a Safe and Just operating Space (SJS) for humanity where human needs are met within ecological limits. Downscaling this framework from global to sub-global levels can increase its policy-relevance, but also faces methodological challenges, both because limits vary across spatiotemporal scales, and because the lived experience of limits differs across cultures. Using Norway as case study, this paper downscales the doughnut's SJS framework through a bottom-up approach with the aim to increase its relevance for national stakeholders and decisions-makers. Combining Earth system data and socio-demographic data, we assess the performance of the Norwegian economy with regards to planetary boundaries and selected social indicators. Our results indicate ecological overshoots for ten out of the eleven assessed planetary boundaries. They further indicate that despite of its comparatively high social performance, Norway's economy is not providing for all its citizens` needs and rights, with significant disparities being observed across demographic groups. Although Norway is, like other Nordic countries, internationally acclaimed for its sustainability policies, an application of the SJS sustainability framework challenge the notion of a “green” and sustainable Norwegian economy by demonstrating evidence of significant inequalities within its population and largel overshoots of its fair share to global resources and ecological sinks.
{"title":"Defining a safe and just operating space for the Norwegian economy","authors":"Thomas Røkås, Erik Gómez-Baggethun","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108511","url":null,"abstract":"The ‘doughnut economics’ sustainability framework defines a Safe and Just operating Space (SJS) for humanity where human needs are met within ecological limits. Downscaling this framework from global to sub-global levels can increase its policy-relevance, but also faces methodological challenges, both because limits vary across spatiotemporal scales, and because the lived experience of limits differs across cultures. Using Norway as case study, this paper downscales the doughnut's SJS framework through a bottom-up approach with the aim to increase its relevance for national stakeholders and decisions-makers. Combining Earth system data and socio-demographic data, we assess the performance of the Norwegian economy with regards to planetary boundaries and selected social indicators. Our results indicate ecological overshoots for ten out of the eleven assessed planetary boundaries. They further indicate that despite of its comparatively high social performance, Norway's economy is not providing for all its citizens` needs and rights, with significant disparities being observed across demographic groups. Although Norway is, like other Nordic countries, internationally acclaimed for its sustainability policies, an application of the SJS sustainability framework challenge the notion of a “green” and sustainable Norwegian economy by demonstrating evidence of significant inequalities within its population and largel overshoots of its fair share to global resources and ecological sinks.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142889290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-25DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108508
Sebastian Valdecantos
This paper explores the tensions that the transition toward a zero‑carbon economy entails for countries relying on natural resource exploitation as the main drivers of (net) exports, as in most South American economies. Given their relatively low diversification and high technology gaps compared to advanced economies, attaining higher prosperity levels driven by sustained economic growth has recurrently been hampered by balance of payments crises. Using a simple long-run demand-led theoretical model with balance of payments constrained growth we show that if the structural limitations in their productive structure are not overcome, the decarbonization of the economy, be it exogenously imposed by the rest of the world or sovereignly decided by each South American country, will be exposed to the dilemma of increasing growth or reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Underpinning this dilemma is the essential role of exports and their associated carbon intensity. Finally, we show that to solve this green transition dilemma, even structural change like the one proposed by the old Latin American structuralist school might not be sufficient – only through a process of green structural change will the long-lastingly desired prosperity of South American countries cease to be an impossible quest.
{"title":"The green transition dilemma: The impossible (?) quest for prosperity of South American economies","authors":"Sebastian Valdecantos","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108508","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the tensions that the transition toward a zero‑carbon economy entails for countries relying on natural resource exploitation as the main drivers of (net) exports, as in most South American economies. Given their relatively low diversification and high technology gaps compared to advanced economies, attaining higher prosperity levels driven by sustained economic growth has recurrently been hampered by balance of payments crises. Using a simple long-run demand-led theoretical model with balance of payments constrained growth we show that if the structural limitations in their productive structure are not overcome, the decarbonization of the economy, be it exogenously imposed by the rest of the world or sovereignly decided by each South American country, will be exposed to the dilemma of increasing growth or reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Underpinning this dilemma is the essential role of exports and their associated carbon intensity. Finally, we show that to solve this green transition dilemma, even structural change like the one proposed by the old Latin American structuralist school might not be sufficient – only through a process of green structural change will the long-lastingly desired prosperity of South American countries cease to be an impossible quest.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142889293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-24DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108469
Jeffrey Pagel
This paper studies whether extractive-resource-activities provoke an ecological response on the emergence and proliferation of malaria by altering the reproductive environment of mosquitoes. In January 2004, the government of the Philippines launched the Minerals Action Plan (MAP), which significantly improved the investment climate in the country’s mining sector. I exploit the timing of the reform and the spatial distribution of mineral endowments through a difference-in-differences (DID) approach that compares provinces with and without gold deposits before and after the reform. After the MAP reform, provinces with deposits of gold had 32 percent more malaria cases per 100,000 relative to provinces without gold deposits. I perform several falsification tests as well as investigate other potential mechanisms which further suggest that the main mechanism is through gold mining’s creation of slow-moving bodies of stagnant water, which provide an ideal breeding site for Anopheles mosquitoes, malaria’s main transmission vector, to propagate and reproduce.
{"title":"A natural resource curse: The unintended effects of gold mining on malaria","authors":"Jeffrey Pagel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108469","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies whether extractive-resource-activities provoke an ecological response on the emergence and proliferation of malaria by altering the reproductive environment of mosquitoes. In January 2004, the government of the Philippines launched the Minerals Action Plan (MAP), which significantly improved the investment climate in the country’s mining sector. I exploit the timing of the reform and the spatial distribution of mineral endowments through a difference-in-differences (DID) approach that compares provinces with and without gold deposits before and after the reform. After the MAP reform, provinces with deposits of gold had 32 percent more malaria cases per 100,000 relative to provinces without gold deposits. I perform several falsification tests as well as investigate other potential mechanisms which further suggest that the main mechanism is through gold mining’s creation of slow-moving bodies of stagnant water, which provide an ideal breeding site for <ce:italic>Anopheles</ce:italic> mosquitoes, malaria’s main transmission vector, to propagate and reproduce.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142889292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-24DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108500
Jesús Peiró-Palomino, Lisa Gianmoena, Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo, Vicente Rios
The green transition is a topic of great interest for European policymakers. It is broadly acknowledged that socio-cultural elements embedded in societies, such as social capital, have a major influence on environmental performance. European regions differ widely in terms of both social capital and environmental behavior. However, there are very few related studies at the sub-national level. Using data on 230 regions of the European Union in 2021, this paper examines the impact of social capital on air quality, which is a key indicator of environmental performance. The results show a positive effect, which is robust to several model specifications and to endogeneity. Some potential transmission mechanisms are also explored, revealing that the positive effects of social capital are channeled through the quality of government and more stringent environmental policy. These insights suggest that regional social capital endowments can be a determinant of a green transition that occurs evenly across European regions.
{"title":"Is social capital a driver of the green transition in the European Union?","authors":"Jesús Peiró-Palomino, Lisa Gianmoena, Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo, Vicente Rios","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108500","url":null,"abstract":"The green transition is a topic of great interest for European policymakers. It is broadly acknowledged that socio-cultural elements embedded in societies, such as social capital, have a major influence on environmental performance. European regions differ widely in terms of both social capital and environmental behavior. However, there are very few related studies at the sub-national level. Using data on 230 regions of the European Union in 2021, this paper examines the impact of social capital on air quality, which is a key indicator of environmental performance. The results show a positive effect, which is robust to several model specifications and to endogeneity. Some potential transmission mechanisms are also explored, revealing that the positive effects of social capital are channeled through the quality of government and more stringent environmental policy. These insights suggest that regional social capital endowments can be a determinant of a green transition that occurs evenly across European regions.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142889291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-21DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108509
Chi Nguyen, Uwe Latacz-Lohmann, Nick Hanley, Sayed Iftekhar
How best to achieve spatially-coordinated environmental outcomes using reverse auctions has become a research question of growing interest. This paper makes a first attempt to systematically investigate the combined effects of the spatial configuration of landscape and landholder-to-landholder communication on auction performance in delivering landscape-scale environmental improvements. We provide novel insights into the importance of the regulator's knowledge about landscape configuration when implementing auctions for landscape-scale environmental management. Using lab experiments, we vary the spatial correlations of opportunity costs and environmental benefits (positive, negative, no correlation) and the availability of costly communication in stylized agricultural landscapes, where the environmental goal is to establish corridors and stepping stones to facilitate the movement of wildlife species. Results show that bidding behaviour, the degree of spatial coordination and cost-effectiveness are significantly different across these three types of landscape configuration. Auctions perform worst in landscapes where opportunity costs and environmental benefits are negatively correlated. Communication promotes spatially-coordinated conservation effort, but its effects on bidding behaviour depend on landscape configuration. The interplay of a positive spatial correlation with communication was found to best promote spatial coordination, although willingness to incur communication costs by landholders varies with landscape configuration.
{"title":"Conservation auctions for landscape-scale environmental management: Does spatial configuration matter for economic and ecological outcomes?","authors":"Chi Nguyen, Uwe Latacz-Lohmann, Nick Hanley, Sayed Iftekhar","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108509","url":null,"abstract":"How best to achieve spatially-coordinated environmental outcomes using reverse auctions has become a research question of growing interest. This paper makes a first attempt to systematically investigate the combined effects of the spatial configuration of landscape and landholder-to-landholder communication on auction performance in delivering landscape-scale environmental improvements. We provide novel insights into the importance of the regulator's knowledge about landscape configuration when implementing auctions for landscape-scale environmental management. Using lab experiments, we vary the spatial correlations of opportunity costs and environmental benefits (positive, negative, no correlation) and the availability of costly communication in stylized agricultural landscapes, where the environmental goal is to establish corridors and stepping stones to facilitate the movement of wildlife species. Results show that bidding behaviour, the degree of spatial coordination and cost-effectiveness are significantly different across these three types of landscape configuration. Auctions perform worst in landscapes where opportunity costs and environmental benefits are negatively correlated. Communication promotes spatially-coordinated conservation effort, but its effects on bidding behaviour depend on landscape configuration. The interplay of a positive spatial correlation with communication was found to best promote spatial coordination, although willingness to incur communication costs by landholders varies with landscape configuration.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108488
Alban Pellegris, Victor Court
This article explores the critical role of energy in shaping capitalist modes of development, and their entry into crisis, in France between 1960 and 2020. This analysis challenges traditional views that regard energy primarily as an exogenous shock and instead posits energy as a fundamental metabolic constraint in capitalist accumulation regimes. To demonstrate this, we integrate energy flows into the analysis of capitalists' regimes by crossing two bodies of knowledge: ecological economics and regulation theory. We enrich regulation theory with three key ecological macroeconomics indicators: thermodynamic efficiency, exosomatic metabolic rate and the weight of energy expenditures. Using descriptive statistics, we show that the weight of energy expenditures is the most significant variable: it must be contained if the rate of profit is to be maintained and if capital accumulation is to continue. Neoliberalism responded to the metabolic exhaustion of Fordism but eventually encountered its own limits in managing energy constraints. Neoliberal recipes for reconfiguring the metabolism have generated major imbalances likely to call into question the reproduction of this regime (financial crises, trade imbalances). We conclude that neoliberalism's structural crisis is rooted in the exhaustion of past energy management strategies, opening the door to the emergence of post-liberal capitalism.
{"title":"The rise and fall of neoliberalism: Evidences from an ecological and regulationist analysis of France (1960–2020)","authors":"Alban Pellegris, Victor Court","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108488","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108488","url":null,"abstract":"This article explores the critical role of energy in shaping capitalist modes of development, and their entry into crisis, in France between 1960 and 2020. This analysis challenges traditional views that regard energy primarily as an exogenous shock and instead posits energy as a fundamental metabolic constraint in capitalist accumulation regimes. To demonstrate this, we integrate energy flows into the analysis of capitalists' regimes by crossing two bodies of knowledge: ecological economics and regulation theory. We enrich regulation theory with three key ecological macroeconomics indicators: thermodynamic efficiency, exosomatic metabolic rate and the weight of energy expenditures. Using descriptive statistics, we show that the weight of energy expenditures is the most significant variable: it must be contained if the rate of profit is to be maintained and if capital accumulation is to continue. Neoliberalism responded to the metabolic exhaustion of Fordism but eventually encountered its own limits in managing energy constraints. Neoliberal recipes for reconfiguring the metabolism have generated major imbalances likely to call into question the reproduction of this regime (financial crises, trade imbalances). We conclude that neoliberalism's structural crisis is rooted in the exhaustion of past energy management strategies, opening the door to the emergence of post-liberal capitalism.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The agricultural sector is recognized as particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In semi-arid areas, the performance and durability of irrigated systems are often difficult to manage. Understanding agriculture's response to water scarcity, institutional change and policy interventions is important in order to better define the different agricultural development pathways. The purpose of this paper is to carry out an economic assessment of the costs of groundwater over-exploitation in the Maghreb. This was achieved by using bio-economic modeling in three case studies: the Saïss plain (Morocco), El Haouaria plain (Tunisia) and Sétif plain (Algeria). A set of indicators (land use, farm gross margin, the dual value of water and labor requirements) was calculated for each case study in two scenarios (a business-as-usual (S_BAU) scenario and a return-to-equilibrium (S_RtE) scenario) over a period of 15 years, from 2021 to 2035. Our results show that (i) the state of the aquifer and its over-exploitation level determine the extent of future changes; (ii) in the case of significant groundwater over-exploitation, restoration costs are higher than over-exploitation costs (Saïss plain); on the other hand, in the case where the over-exploitation rate is lower (El Haouaria and Sétif plains), the over-exploitation and restoration costs are close; (iii) both scenarios show significant structural and social changes, and without the effective implementation of environmental and social policies, they lead to high economic losses.
{"title":"Economic valuation of groundwater over-exploitation in the Maghreb","authors":"Abderraouf Zaatra, Georgios Kleftodimos, Mélanie Requier-Desjardins, Hatem Belhouchette","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108499","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108499","url":null,"abstract":"The agricultural sector is recognized as particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In semi-arid areas, the performance and durability of irrigated systems are often difficult to manage. Understanding agriculture's response to water scarcity, institutional change and policy interventions is important in order to better define the different agricultural development pathways. The purpose of this paper is to carry out an economic assessment of the costs of groundwater over-exploitation in the Maghreb. This was achieved by using bio-economic modeling in three case studies: the Saïss plain (Morocco), El Haouaria plain (Tunisia) and Sétif plain (Algeria). A set of indicators (land use, farm gross margin, the dual value of water and labor requirements) was calculated for each case study in two scenarios (a business-as-usual (S_BAU) scenario and a return-to-equilibrium (S_RtE) scenario) over a period of 15 years, from 2021 to 2035. Our results show that (i) the state of the aquifer and its over-exploitation level determine the extent of future changes; (ii) in the case of significant groundwater over-exploitation, restoration costs are higher than over-exploitation costs (Saïss plain); on the other hand, in the case where the over-exploitation rate is lower (El Haouaria and Sétif plains), the over-exploitation and restoration costs are close; (iii) both scenarios show significant structural and social changes, and without the effective implementation of environmental and social policies, they lead to high economic losses.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-18DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108498
David Álvarez-Antelo, Paola López-Muñoz, Luis Llases, Arthur Lauer
Despite the importance of behavioural changes for transitioning to low-carbon societies, quantitative modelling has mainly focused on technological changes, overlooking the complex social dynamics of lifestyle shifts. In this study, we build a coupled system dynamics model linking a passenger transport model with an exploratory endogenous behavioural change model. We use this model and a scenario discovery methodology based on Monte Carlo simulations and multivariate sensitivity analysis to explore pathways for climate mitigation in the transport sector by shifting from flights to trains. Our model reveals several scenarios for mitigation, each requiring different policy combinations and social efforts. We found that personal environmental values significantly impact the speed of behavioural change and its contribution to emissions reduction by 2050, though policy incentives such as educational and economic policies could also help in their absence. Based on four pathways with distinct exogenous drivers, we present four storylines illustrating possible social contexts for a shift from air to train transport: Smart Policy Mix (1), Fast Adaptation (2), Luck in Misfortune (3), and Overcoming the Value-Action Gap (4). The scenarios reveal different situations for achieving mitigation objectives, varying in efficiency, desirability, and feasibility, while also exposing sociopolitical trade-offs. Our work contributes to the field of social and exploratory modelling, offering new insights into the social dynamics of sustainability transformations.
{"title":"Towards a sustainable mobility lifestyle: Exploring the flight to rail shift through model-based behavioural change scenarios","authors":"David Álvarez-Antelo, Paola López-Muñoz, Luis Llases, Arthur Lauer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108498","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108498","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the importance of behavioural changes for transitioning to low-carbon societies, quantitative modelling has mainly focused on technological changes, overlooking the complex social dynamics of lifestyle shifts. In this study, we build a coupled system dynamics model linking a passenger transport model with an exploratory endogenous behavioural change model. We use this model and a scenario discovery methodology based on Monte Carlo simulations and multivariate sensitivity analysis to explore pathways for climate mitigation in the transport sector by shifting from flights to trains. Our model reveals several scenarios for mitigation, each requiring different policy combinations and social efforts. We found that personal environmental values significantly impact the speed of behavioural change and its contribution to emissions reduction by 2050, though policy incentives such as educational and economic policies could also help in their absence. Based on four pathways with distinct exogenous drivers, we present four storylines illustrating possible social contexts for a shift from air to train transport: <ce:italic>Smart Policy Mix (1)</ce:italic>, <ce:italic>Fast Adaptation (2)</ce:italic>, <ce:italic>Luck in Misfortune (3)</ce:italic>, and <ce:italic>Overcoming the Value-Action Gap (4)</ce:italic>. The scenarios reveal different situations for achieving mitigation objectives, varying in efficiency, desirability, and feasibility, while also exposing sociopolitical trade-offs. Our work contributes to the field of social and exploratory modelling, offering new insights into the social dynamics of sustainability transformations.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-18DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108485
F.J. Blok, F. Fuerst
Natural hazard risk is captured in property prices through two principal channels: the risk to the building and the risk to its occupiers. These two effects are typically bundled up in transaction prices, thereby becoming individually unobservable. This study analyses residential rents as those should solely represent the risk to occupiers, who pay for their own losses in the case of a natural hazard event, but not for the owner's potential damage to the asset. Applying a hedonic framework to a sample of 18,339 dwellings across Switzerland, we examine the relationship between residential rents and exposure to five different climate-related natural hazards, some of which have been hitherto understudied. Strong evidence of a small rental discount of 1.4 % is found for dwellings that are subject to moderate flood hazard. Similar, albeit weaker, estimates are found for surface runoff hazard. Gravitational hazards including landslide, debris flow, and hillslope debris flow are not associated with significantly lower rents, possibly due to the small sample size. Our findings imply that not all natural hazard risk is reflected in the cost-side of the profit-equation in commercial residential real estate, but partly manifests itself in the form of reduced income, which is often less apparent.
{"title":"Multiple hazards and residential rents in Switzerland: Who pays the price of extreme natural events?","authors":"F.J. Blok, F. Fuerst","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108485","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108485","url":null,"abstract":"Natural hazard risk is captured in property prices through two principal channels: the risk to the building and the risk to its occupiers. These two effects are typically bundled up in transaction prices, thereby becoming individually unobservable. This study analyses residential rents as those should solely represent the risk to occupiers, who pay for their own losses in the case of a natural hazard event, but not for the owner's potential damage to the asset. Applying a hedonic framework to a sample of 18,339 dwellings across Switzerland, we examine the relationship between residential rents and exposure to five different climate-related natural hazards, some of which have been hitherto understudied. Strong evidence of a small rental discount of 1.4 % is found for dwellings that are subject to moderate flood hazard. Similar, albeit weaker, estimates are found for surface runoff hazard. Gravitational hazards including landslide, debris flow, and hillslope debris flow are not associated with significantly lower rents, possibly due to the small sample size. Our findings imply that not all natural hazard risk is reflected in the cost-side of the profit-equation in commercial residential real estate, but partly manifests itself in the form of reduced income, which is often less apparent.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-14DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108497
Tommaso Rughi, Jacopo Staccioli, Maria Enrica Virgillito
This paper provides a direct understanding of the labour-saving threats embedded in decarbonisation pathways. It starts with a mapping of the technological innovations characterised by both climate change mitigation/adaptation (green) and labour-saving attributes. To accomplish this, we draw on the universe of patent grants in the USPTO since 1976 to 2021 reporting the Y02-Y04S tagging scheme and we identify those patents embedding an explicit labour-saving heuristic via a dependency parsing algorithm. We characterise their technological, sectoral and time evolution. Finally, after constructing an index of sectoral penetration of LS and non-LS green patents, we explore its correlation with employment share growth at the state level in the US. Our evidence shows that employment shares in sectors characterised by a higher exposure to LS (non-LS) technologies present an overall negative (positive) growth dynamics.
本文提供了对去碳化途径中蕴含的节省劳动力威胁的直接理解。本文首先描绘了同时具有减缓/适应气候变化（绿色）和节省劳动力属性的技术创新。为此，我们利用了美国专利商标局自 1976 年至 2021 年报告 Y02-Y04S 标记方案的专利授权范围，并通过依赖性解析算法识别出那些包含明确的节省劳动力启发式的专利。我们描述了这些专利的技术、部门和时间演变特征。最后，在构建了 LS 和非 LS 绿色专利的行业渗透指数后，我们探讨了其与美国各州就业份额增长的相关性。我们的研究结果表明，在较多接触 LS（非 LS）技术的行业中，就业份额呈现出总体负（正）增长态势。
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