Ecological Economics最新文献_第5页

The hidden social costs of climate change: Evidence on weather shocks, children’s mobility and rural economic welfare in Uganda 气候变化的隐性社会成本：关于乌干达天气冲击、儿童流动性和农村经济福利的证据

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108859

Manuela Coromaldi , Alessio D’Amato , Loredana Mirra

Children’s mobility is a relevant phenomenon worldwide. It is even more relevant in developing countries, where the income conditions of rural households exacerbate it. Meanwhile, difficulties in feeding and raising children in rural areas are worsened by climate-related shocks, which severely affect agricultural production. The aim of this paper is to move a further step in the investigation of the role played by weather shocks in driving rural households’ critical decisions, with specific attention to children’s mobility. In turn, we aim to identify the impact of such decisions on rural households’ economic welfare in terms of expenditure and income. To this end, we apply a panel two-stage least squares model, and then we adopt the approach by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) to evaluate the dynamic effects of children’s mobility decisions on rural households’ economic outcomes. Our findings highlight the asymmetric effects of climate shocks: wet events are associated with increased child mobility, while droughts reduce the likelihood that children are sent away. Furthermore, we estimate causal links between child mobility and economic outcomes. Although child relocation is associated with modest increases in per capita food expenditure, total income, and agricultural income, dynamic analysis reveals a more complex picture. Positive effects on expenditure are only manifest two years after relocation, particularly for older children, while crop income declines significantly, although temporarily, following child mobility decisions. These results suggest that child relocation is not always an effective or welfare-improving strategy.

儿童流动是一个世界性的相关现象。这在发展中国家更为重要，因为发展中国家农村家庭的收入状况加剧了这一问题。与此同时，与气候有关的冲击加剧了农村儿童的喂养和抚养困难，严重影响了农业生产。本文的目的是进一步研究天气冲击在推动农村家庭做出关键决策方面所起的作用，并特别关注儿童的流动性。反过来，我们的目标是确定这些决定对农村家庭在支出和收入方面的经济福利的影响。为此，我们采用面板两阶段最小二乘模型，然后采用Callaway和Sant’anna（2021）的方法来评估儿童流动决策对农村家庭经济结果的动态影响。我们的研究结果强调了气候冲击的不对称影响：潮湿事件与儿童流动性增加有关，而干旱则降低了儿童被送走的可能性。此外，我们估计了儿童流动性与经济结果之间的因果关系。虽然儿童迁移与人均粮食支出、总收入和农业收入的适度增加有关，但动态分析揭示了一个更为复杂的情况。对支出的积极影响仅在搬迁两年后才显现出来，特别是对年龄较大的儿童，而在儿童流动决定之后，作物收入大幅下降，尽管是暂时的。这些结果表明，儿童安置并不总是一种有效的或改善福利的策略。

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引用次数: 0

Regional aspects of climate change beliefs in the U.S 美国气候变化信仰的区域方面

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108875

Radhika Lahiri, Chamupathy Samaratunga, Annastiina Silvennoinen

We examine U.S. climate change beliefs and their covariates from a regional perspective. We consider six dimensions of these beliefs, measured using survey data on awareness and risk-consciousness regarding global warming and its impact. Using a multi-level mixed-effects regression methodology, we consider the impact of labour market conditions, political affiliations and ideology, and extreme weather conditions on these beliefs, and whether administrative and legislative control of a region by the Republican or Democratic parties influences beliefs. We find that political affiliation and ideology matter more relative to other socioeconomic and demographic variables: Democratic affiliation and liberal views are positively associated with belief in climate change, while Republican affiliation and conservative views show a negative association. At the regional level, we find that while exposure to extreme weather-related events is related to greater belief in climate change and increased personal risk, there is a stronger relation to the beliefs of the political parties that have administrative and legislative ruling power in the region, but not necessarily in consensus-building form. Specifically, a higher percentage of states under Republican control in a region is associated with greater belief in climate change among Democrats, but not among Republicans. Adverse labour market conditions have a strong negative relation to beliefs and can also negatively affect beliefs of Democrats. These results imply that building consensus for sustainable climate mitigation policies may be difficult, and rests critically on favourable economic conditions and effective communication relating to potential economic benefits of such policies.

我们从区域角度考察了美国的气候变化信念及其协变量。我们考虑了这些信念的六个维度，使用关于全球变暖及其影响的意识和风险意识的调查数据进行测量。使用多层次混合效应回归方法，我们考虑了劳动力市场条件、政治派别和意识形态以及极端天气条件对这些信念的影响，以及共和党或民主党对一个地区的行政和立法控制是否会影响信念。我们发现，政治派别和意识形态对其他社会经济和人口变量的影响更大：民主党派别和自由主义观点与气候变化信念呈正相关，而共和党派别和保守观点呈负相关。在区域层面上，我们发现，虽然暴露于极端天气相关事件与对气候变化的更大信念和个人风险增加有关，但与该地区拥有行政和立法执政权力的政党的信念有更强的关系，但不一定是以建立共识的形式。具体来说，在一个地区，共和党控制的州的比例越高，民主党人对气候变化的信念就越强，而共和党人则不然。不利的劳动力市场条件与信念有很强的负相关，也会对民主党的信念产生负面影响。这些结果表明，就可持续气候缓解政策达成共识可能很困难，关键取决于有利的经济条件和与此类政策的潜在经济效益有关的有效沟通。

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引用次数: 0

Climate change mitigation and green energy investment: A stock-flow consistent model 减缓气候变化和绿色能源投资：一个存量流量一致的模型

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108863

Gustavo Pereira Serra , Ettore Gallo

This paper develops a stock-flow consistent business cycle model integrating aggregate demand dynamics, income distribution, and ecological constraints to analyze climate mitigation strategies. We propose a two-sector framework distinguishing between energy and non-energy production. The model comprises wage and rent-earning households, firms in energy and non-energy sectors, a central bank, and commercial banks. Throughout the business cycle, energy sector firms gradually increase their share of green energy investment in the face of the low-carbon transition, replacing brown technologies with green alternatives. Through numerical simulations, we show that the pace of the energy transition influences both economic outcomes and emission trajectories. A negative shock to the green energy investment share – caused e.g. by policy inaction – not only slows the low-carbon transition but also depresses aggregate demand, wages, and employment. The paper examines possibilities for reducing the carbon intensity of production and provides insights into the interactions between ecological, macroeconomic, and distributive factors during the transition to a green economy.

本文建立了一个整合总需求动态、收入分配和生态约束的库存流量一致商业周期模型来分析气候减缓策略。我们提出了一个区分能源和非能源生产的两部门框架。该模型包括工资和租金收入家庭、能源和非能源部门的公司、中央银行和商业银行。在整个经济周期中，面对低碳转型，能源部门企业逐渐增加绿色能源投资的份额，用绿色替代品取代棕色技术。通过数值模拟，我们发现能源转型的速度既影响经济产出，也影响排放轨迹。对绿色能源投资份额的负面冲击——例如由政策不作为造成的——不仅会减缓低碳转型，还会抑制总需求、工资和就业。本文探讨了降低生产碳强度的可能性，并对向绿色经济转型过程中生态、宏观经济和分配因素之间的相互作用提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Harmful temperatures and consumption expenditure: Evidence from Nigerian households 有害温度和消费支出：来自尼日利亚家庭的证据

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108874

Jubril Animashaun , Lotanna E. Emediegwu , Okiemua T. Okoror , Nneka E. Osadolor

We examine the welfare effects of interannual variation in extreme temperatures on consumption expenditure using nationally representative household survey data from Nigeria. Prior work shows that small-scale farmers attenuate the impact of extreme heat on agricultural productivity through the short-term use of non-traded productive inputs, such as land. However, when investment in tradable inputs, such as drought-resistant technologies, is higher, attenuating weather shocks may reduce the welfare of net food buyers if it increases food prices. Using microdata on consumption expenditure from Nigerian households and controlling for seasonality and other time- and zone-specific trends, we examine the effect of changes in extreme temperature on households’ food expenditure. We find that extreme heat increases per capita consumption expenditure during the dry season but not during the wet season. Compared with households in urban areas, rural households pay more for food during the dry season. We interpret this as a reflection of the higher production costs associated with extreme heat during the dry season. Our results support policies that provide income support to vulnerable households to mitigate the impact of weather shocks in agrarian communities in developing countries.

我们使用尼日利亚具有全国代表性的家庭调查数据来检验极端温度年际变化对消费支出的福利影响。先前的研究表明，小农通过短期使用非贸易生产性投入（如土地）来减弱极端高温对农业生产力的影响。然而，当对可贸易投入物（如抗旱技术）的投资较高时，减弱天气冲击可能会降低粮食净购买者的福利，因为它会提高粮食价格。利用尼日利亚家庭消费支出的微观数据，并控制季节性和其他特定时间和地区的趋势，我们研究了极端温度变化对家庭食品支出的影响。我们发现，极端高温会增加旱季的人均消费支出，而在雨季则不会。与城市家庭相比，农村家庭在旱季的食物支出更高。我们将此解释为旱季极端高温导致生产成本上升的反映。我们的研究结果支持为弱势家庭提供收入支持的政策，以减轻气候冲击对发展中国家农业社区的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Behavioural ecological economics - Positioning the field and introducing the special issue 行为生态经济学——领域定位与专题介绍

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108870

Nives Della Valle , Tiziano Distefano , Leonardo Boncinelli , Ann-Kathrin Blankenberg , Tommaso Luzzati

引用次数: 0

When government does too well? Perceived environmental governance performance and citizens' green consumption 当政府做得太好？感知环境治理绩效与公民绿色消费

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108867

Lei Zhang , Sisi Chen , Hangyan Tong , Quande Qin

Local governments worldwide increasingly emphasize their environmental governance performance (EGP) to demonstrate commitment to sustainability and inspire citizens' environmental engagement. While this strategy intuitively appears beneficial for promoting green behaviors, our study reveals an unexpected paradox that challenges this conventional wisdom. Drawing on the vicarious moral balancing framework, we examine how citizens' perception of government's EGP influences their green consumption behavior, with particular attention to the role of city identification. Through an experiment and a questionnaire survey, our findings demonstrate that: (1) When citizens perceive high levels of EGP, they tend to reduce their green consumption behaviors; conversely, when they perceive low levels of EGP, they increase such behavior. (2) This relationship is mediated by moral credit, suggesting that citizens might vicariously claim moral credits from government's environmental achievements. (3) The mediating effect of moral credit is moderated by city identification - the higher the city identification, the stronger the mediating effect. This study reveals an unexpected “too well” effect: while government's environmental achievements are crucial, they may inadvertently lead to moral licensing among citizens. We provide theoretical implications for vicarious moral balancing literature and practical suggestions for promoting citizens' green consumption behavior while maintaining government environmental initiatives.

世界各地的地方政府越来越重视其环境治理绩效（EGP），以展示其对可持续发展的承诺，并激发公民的环境参与。虽然这种策略在直觉上似乎有利于促进绿色行为，但我们的研究揭示了一个意想不到的悖论，挑战了这种传统智慧。利用替代道德平衡框架，我们研究了公民对政府EGP的感知如何影响他们的绿色消费行为，并特别关注城市认同的作用。通过实验和问卷调查，我们发现：(1)当市民感知到高水平的EGP时，他们倾向于减少绿色消费行为；相反，当他们察觉到EGP水平较低时，他们会增加这种行为。(2)这种关系以道德信用为中介，表明公民可能从政府的环境成就中间接索取道德信用。(3)道德信用的中介效应受城市认同的调节，城市认同越高，中介效应越强。这项研究揭示了一个意想不到的“太好”效应：虽然政府的环境成就至关重要，但它们可能在不经意间导致公民的道德许可。本文为替代性道德平衡文献提供了理论启示，并为促进公民绿色消费行为同时保持政府环保主动性提供了实践建议。

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引用次数: 0

Who suffers the heat? Partial adaptation and persistent inequalities in France 谁在忍受高温？法国的部分适应和持续的不平等

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108873

Camille Salesse

This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of extreme heat on mortality in France, highlighting disparities across population density, socio-economic characteristics, and time. Using a new monthly database of French municipalities from 1980 to 2019, I exploit year-to-year random variations in temperature to show that extreme heat significantly increases the mortality rate, especially for people aged 75 and over. The study also emphasizes the greater vulnerability of people living in densely populated cities due to structural challenges that amplify the impact of high temperatures. Socio-economic conditions also shape vulnerability, as low-income municipalities face a disproportionate impact, especially in rural areas. Indeed, the paper’s key contribution is to disentangle the effects of urban density and income on the heat–mortality relationship, showing that social inequalities in the effects of high temperatures are particularly pronounced in rural settings. The results also show a major reduction in the impact of heat following the extreme 2003 heatwave, partly due to the National Heatwave Plan implemented in response to this event.

本文考察了极端高温对法国死亡率的异质性影响，突出了人口密度、社会经济特征和时间的差异。我利用1980年至2019年法国各市新的月度数据库，利用气温的逐年随机变化，表明极端高温会显著增加死亡率，尤其是75岁及以上的人。该研究还强调，由于结构性挑战放大了高温的影响，生活在人口密集城市的人们更容易受到伤害。社会经济条件也会影响脆弱性，因为低收入城市面临着不成比例的影响，特别是在农村地区。事实上，这篇论文的关键贡献在于理清了城市密度和收入对热死亡率关系的影响，表明高温影响的社会不平等在农村地区尤为明显。研究结果还显示，2003年极端热浪之后，热浪的影响大大减少，部分原因是为应对这一事件而实施的国家热浪计划。

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引用次数: 0

Rising temperatures and physical pain: Evidence from over 2 million U.S. residents 气温上升和身体疼痛：来自200多万美国居民的证据

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108871

Cheng Keat Tang , Nattavudh Powdthavee , Lucía Macchia

Physical pain is on the rise worldwide, yet little is known about its relationship with rising temperatures. Using daily survey data on more than 2 million U.S. residents from 26,987 zip codes between 2008 and 2017, we examine whether hotter days are associated with greater reports of pain. Our outcome captures whether respondents experienced physical pain for a substantial part of the day, reflecting the prevalence of sustained daily pain rather than fleeting discomfort. We find that the likelihood of such pain increases steadily with temperature up to around 16–18 °C and remains elevated, though with smaller further increases, on hotter days. On days with temperatures of 32 °C or higher, the probability of reporting pain is about 0.45 percentage points higher—an increase of roughly 1.9 % relative to the average prevalence. Analyses of stress, enjoyment, and activity limitation suggest that physiological pathways play an important role in this association, complementing possible behavioural responses. Using climate projection data (CMIP5, SSP2–4.5), we estimate that temperature-driven increases in pain prevalence between 2008 and 2017 imposed annual economic costs of approximately $2 billion, with projected costs rising to $9.4 billion by 2050 if no adaptation measures are taken. These findings suggest that temperature deviations from moderate ranges exacerbate physical suffering, with the heat effects likely understated in our data, and underscore the need for policies that mitigate both climatic and health impacts.

在世界范围内，身体疼痛呈上升趋势，但人们对其与气温上升的关系知之甚少。利用2008年至2017年间对26,987个邮政编码的200多万美国居民的日常调查数据，我们研究了炎热的天气是否与更多的疼痛报告有关。我们的结果捕获了受访者是否在一天的大部分时间里经历了身体疼痛，反映了持续的日常疼痛的普遍性，而不是短暂的不适。我们发现，当温度达到16-18°C左右时，这种疼痛的可能性会稳步增加，并且在较热的天气里，这种可能性会继续升高，尽管进一步升高的幅度较小。在温度为32°C或更高的日子里，报告疼痛的概率大约高出0.45个百分点，相对于平均患病率增加了大约1.9%。对压力、享受和活动限制的分析表明，生理途径在这种关联中起着重要作用，补充了可能的行为反应。利用气候预测数据（CMIP5, SSP2-4.5），我们估计，2008年至2017年期间，温度驱动的疼痛患病率上升造成的年度经济成本约为20亿美元，如果不采取适应措施，预计到2050年成本将上升至94亿美元。这些发现表明，温度偏离中等范围会加剧身体痛苦，而我们的数据可能低估了热效应，并强调需要制定减轻气候和健康影响的政策。

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引用次数: 0

Waste delinking: A pathway to degrowth? 废物脱链：去生长的途径？

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108869

Sara Karimzadeh

Cross-border waste trade from high- to lower-income countries contributes to unsustainable economic growth through overproduction and overconsumption in the former while shifting environmental, social, and health costs to the latter. Drawing on Samir Amin's theory of delinking, this article presents waste delinking as an imperative to internalize the costs of affluent regions' post-consumption residues within their own territories and capacities. Using recent evidence on plastic, textile, and electronic waste, the article shows how closing export outlets constraints growth and can catalyze systemic transformation. Waste delinking necessiates a reorganization of production–consumption systems and therefore provides a concrete pathway toward degrowth-oriented futures grounded in non-colonial relations, localization, and ecological justice.

从高收入国家到低收入国家的跨境废物贸易助长了不可持续的经济增长，原因是前者生产过剩和消费过度，同时将环境、社会和卫生成本转嫁给后者。本文借鉴了萨米尔·阿明的去联系理论，提出了垃圾去联系是富裕地区消费后残留物成本内化在其领土和能力范围内的必要措施。本文利用最近关于塑料、纺织品和电子废物的证据，展示了关闭出口渠道如何制约增长，并能促进系统转型。废物分离需要对生产-消费系统进行重组，因此提供了一条以非殖民关系、本地化和生态正义为基础的以去增长为导向的未来的具体途径。

引用次数: 0

Normal for whom? Exploring socioeconomic variation in a travel cost analysis of urban shoreline fishing 对谁来说正常？探索城市岸线捕鱼旅行成本分析中的社会经济差异

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108872

Camille Antinori , Tobias Börger , Philip King , Matthew Peterson

A travel cost analysis based on the multivariate Poisson-log normal model explores the varying effects of income and race/ethnicity on visitation to a low-cost urban blue space amenity for angling. Using data from an on-site survey in San Francisco Bay, we estimate a consumer surplus value of $78 per angling visit, which breaks down into $74, $91 and $45 for low, medium and high income brackets, respectively, questioning the normal good assumption for environmental amenities in close proximity to large, diverse urban populations. Further, income effects vary across race/ethnicity groups whose representation at the shoreline contrasts with the local managing municipality, revealing the location’s value as a regional resource. Both observed and contingent behavior information estimated simultaneously within the model shows that a quality change in the form of a reopened pier would almost double visitation, with the largest relative increase among wealthier anglers. The paper contributes to analysis of access and equity in outdoor recreation by illustrating distinct features of urban shoreline fishing, with implications for multilayered coastal governance and competing policy agendas.

一项基于多元泊松对数正态模型的旅行成本分析探讨了收入和种族/民族对低成本城市蓝色空间钓鱼设施访问的不同影响。利用旧金山湾现场调查的数据，我们估计每次垂钓的消费者剩余价值为78美元，在低收入、中等收入和高收入人群中分别为74美元、91美元和45美元，这对靠近大型、多样化城市人口的环境设施的正常良好假设提出了质疑。此外，不同种族/民族的收入影响不同，他们在海岸线的代表与当地管理市政当局形成鲜明对比，揭示了该地点作为区域资源的价值。模型中同时估计的观察和偶然行为信息表明，重新开放码头形式的质量变化几乎会使访问量增加一倍，而富裕的垂钓者的相对增长最大。本文通过阐述城市岸线渔业的独特特征，分析了户外休闲活动的可及性和公平性，并对沿海多层次治理和相互竞争的政策议程产生了影响。

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引用次数: 0