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Nonlinear shrinkage test on a large‐dimensional covariance matrix 大维协方差矩阵的非线性收缩测试
IF 1.5 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1111/stan.12348
Taras Bodnar, Nestor Parolya, Frederik Veldman
This paper is concerned with deriving a new test on a covariance matrix which is based on its nonlinear shrinkage estimator. The distribution of the test statistic is deduced under the null hypothesis in the large‐dimensional setting, that is, when with variables and samples both tending to infinity. The theoretical results are illustrated by means of an extensive simulation study where the new nonlinear shrinkage‐based test is compared with existing approaches, in particular with the commonly used corrected likelihood ratio test, the corrected John test, and the test based on the linear shrinkage approach. It is demonstrated that the new nonlinear shrinkage test possesses better power properties under heteroscedastic alternative.
本文主要研究基于协方差矩阵的非线性收缩估计器,推导出一种新的协方差矩阵检验方法。在大维度环境下,即变量和样本都趋于无穷大时,推导出检验统计量在零假设下的分布。理论结果通过大量的模拟研究加以说明,在模拟研究中,新的基于非线性收缩的检验与现有方法进行了比较,特别是与常用的校正似然比检验、校正约翰检验和基于线性收缩方法的检验进行了比较。结果表明,新的非线性收缩检验在异方差选择下具有更好的功率特性。
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引用次数: 0
Regression estimation using surrogate responses obtained by presmoothing 使用预平滑获得的代用响应进行回归估计
IF 1.5 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1111/stan.12351
Eni Musta, Valentin Patilea, Ingrid Van Keilegom
Presmoothing was initially introduced in the linear regression setting as a method to improve finite sample efficiency by replacing the response variable with a nonparametric estimate of the regression function. Since then, it has found success in various domains, including survival analysis. However, the use of presmoothing with multiple continuous covariates is challenging and undesirable in practice. Inspired by the cure regression setup, we derive a simple estimator for (semi)parametric models with many regressors based on 1‐dimensional presmoothing. The method is particularly valuable when the response variable is not directly observed. However, even when the response is available, presmoothing can enhance accuracy for small to moderate sample sizes. We present several applications of the proposed method in different settings and investigate its finite sample behavior through simulations.
预平滑最初是在线性回归设置中引入的,是一种通过用回归函数的非参数估计来替代响应变量,从而提高有限样本效率的方法。此后,它在生存分析等多个领域取得了成功。然而,在实际应用中,对多个连续协变量使用预平滑是一项挑战,也是不可取的。受固化回归设置的启发,我们在一维预平滑的基础上,为具有多个回归变量的(半)参数模型推导出了一种简单的估计方法。当反应变量无法直接观测时,这种方法尤为重要。然而,即使在有响应变量的情况下,预平滑也能提高中小样本量的准确性。我们介绍了所提方法在不同环境中的几种应用,并通过模拟研究了其有限样本行为。
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引用次数: 0
Hurdle GARCH models for nonnegative time series 非负时间序列的飓风 GARCH 模型
IF 1.5 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1111/stan.12349
Šárka Hudecová, Michal Pešta
The studied semi‐continuous time series contains a nonnegligible portion of observations equal to a single value (typically zero), whereas the remaining outcomes are strictly positive. A novel class of hurdle GARCH models having dependent zero occurrences is considered and the classical maximum likelihood estimation is employed. However, a distribution of the underlying time series innovations does not belong into the exponential family, which together with the dependence of innovations makes the whole inference nonstandard. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator are derived. Efficiency of the estimation is elaborated and compared with the alternative quasi‐likelihood approach. A bootstrap prediction is also discussed. An analysis of sparse nonlife insurance claims is performed.
所研究的半连续时间序列包含不可忽略的一部分观测值,这些观测值等于一个单一值(通常为零),而其余结果严格为正。研究考虑了一类具有依赖零发生率的新型阶跃 GARCH 模型,并采用了经典的最大似然估计方法。然而,基础时间序列创新值的分布不属于指数族,再加上创新值的依赖性,使得整个推断不标准。推导出了估计器的一致性和渐近正态性。对估计的效率进行了阐述,并与其他准概率方法进行了比较。此外,还讨论了引导预测。对稀疏的非寿险理赔进行了分析。
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引用次数: 0
Endogenous and exogenous effects in self‐exciting process models of terrorist activity 恐怖活动自激过程模型中的内生和外生效应
IF 1.5 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1111/stan.12347
Fabrizio Ruggeri, Michael D. Porter, Gentry White
A model based on the cluster process representation of the self‐exciting process model is derived to allow for variation in the excitation effects for terrorist events in a self‐exciting or cluster process model. The model's derivation and implementation details are given and applied to data from the Global Terrorism Database (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), 2015) from 2000 to 2013. Results regarding the practical interpretation and implications for a theoretical model paralleling existing criminological theory are discussed.
该模型基于自激过程模型的群集过程表示法,允许自激或群集过程模型中恐怖事件的激发效应发生变化。文中给出了该模型的推导和实施细节,并将其应用于 2000 年至 2013 年全球恐怖主义数据库(国家恐怖主义和恐怖主义对策研究联合会(START),2015 年)中的数据。讨论了与现有犯罪学理论并行的理论模型的实际解释和影响结果。
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引用次数: 0
A note on trigonometric regression in the presence of Berkson‐type measurement error 关于存在伯克森式测量误差的三角回归的说明
IF 1.5 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1111/stan.12344
Michael T. Gorczyca, Tavish M. McDonald, Justice D. Sefas
In this note, we study how parameter vector estimation for a trigonometric regression model and the expected squared residual error computed from an estimated model are affected by Berkson‐type measurement error. Closed‐form expressions for the parameter vector and the expected squared residual error are obtained by assuming that the observed covariate data are sampled from an equispaced design and that measurement error is generated from a symmetric probability distribution with a mean of zero. Notably, these results indicate that estimates of the amplitude parameters for a trigonometric regression model suffer from attenuation bias when covariate data are mis‐measured, and that estimates of the phase‐shift parameters are unbiased.
在本论文中,我们将研究三角回归模型的参数向量估计和根据估计模型计算的期望残差平方误差如何受到伯克森型测量误差的影响。假设观测协变量数据是从等距设计中采样的,且测量误差产生于均值为零的对称概率分布,则可得到参数向量和预期残差平方误差的闭式表达式。值得注意的是,这些结果表明,当协变量数据测量错误时,三角回归模型的振幅参数估计会出现衰减偏差,而相移参数的估计值是无偏的。
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引用次数: 0
Testing for no effect in regression problems: A permutation approach 回归问题中的无效应检验:置换法
IF 1.5 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1111/stan.12346
Michał G. Ciszewski, Jakob Söhl, Ton Leenen, Bart van Trigt, Geurt Jongbloed
Often the question arises whether can be predicted based on using a certain model. Especially for highly flexible models such as neural networks one may ask whether a seemingly good prediction is actually better than fitting pure noise or whether it has to be attributed to the flexibility of the model. This paper proposes a rigorous permutation test to assess whether the prediction is better than the prediction of pure noise. The test avoids any sample splitting and is based instead on generating new pairings of . It introduces a new formulation of the null hypothesis and rigorous justification for the test, which distinguishes it from the previous literature. The theoretical findings are applied both to simulated data and to sensor data of tennis serves in an experimental context. The simulation study underscores how the available information affects the test. It shows that the less informative the predictors, the lower the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis of fitting pure noise and emphasizes that detecting weaker dependence between variables requires a sufficient sample size.
人们经常会问,使用某种模型能否预测结果。特别是对于神经网络等高度灵活的模型,人们可能会问,看似良好的预测实际上是否优于拟合纯噪声,或者是否必须归因于模型的灵活性。本文提出了一种严格的置换检验方法,用于评估预测结果是否优于纯噪声预测结果。该检验避免了任何样本分割,而是基于产生新的配对。 它引入了新的零假设表述和检验的严格理由,这使其有别于以往的文献。理论研究结果同时应用于模拟数据和实验背景下的网球发球传感器数据。模拟研究强调了可用信息对检验的影响。它表明,预测因子的信息量越少,拒绝拟合纯噪声的零假设的概率就越低,并强调检测变量之间较弱的依赖性需要足够的样本量。
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引用次数: 0
High‐dimensional sparse classification using exponential weighting with empirical hinge loss 利用指数加权和经验铰链损失进行高维稀疏分类
IF 1.5 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1111/stan.12342
The Tien Mai
In this study, we address the problem of high‐dimensional binary classification. Our proposed solution involves employing an aggregation technique founded on exponential weights and empirical hinge loss. Through the employment of a suitable sparsity‐inducing prior distribution, we demonstrate that our method yields favorable theoretical results on prediction error. The efficiency of our procedure is achieved through the utilization of Langevin Monte Carlo, a gradient‐based sampling approach. To illustrate the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct comparisons with the logistic Lasso on simulated data and a real dataset. Our method frequently demonstrates superior performance compared to the logistic Lasso.
在这项研究中,我们解决了高维二元分类的问题。我们提出的解决方案包括采用一种基于指数权重和经验铰链损失的聚合技术。通过使用合适的稀疏性诱导先验分布,我们证明了我们的方法在预测误差方面产生了良好的理论结果。通过使用基于梯度的抽样方法 Langevin Monte Carlo,我们实现了程序的高效性。为了说明我们方法的有效性,我们在模拟数据和真实数据集上与 logistic Lasso 进行了比较。与 logistic Lasso 相比,我们的方法经常表现出更优越的性能。
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引用次数: 0
Duals of convolution thinned relationships 卷积稀化关系的对偶
IF 1.5 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1111/stan.12337
M. C. Jones
In a recent article, J. Peyhardi gives a number of novel results related to quasi Pólya thinning which encompass a number of important mixture relationships between univariate discrete distributions. In this note, I explore the duals of the general results on convolution thinning given in Peyhardi's Theorem 1 in order to obtain new relationships and to gain new insights into old relationships. Some consequences—for integer‐valued autoregressive processes—and analogues—in the continuous case—are noted.
佩哈迪(J. Peyhardi)在最近的一篇文章中给出了许多与准波利亚稀化相关的新结果,这些结果包含了单变量离散分布之间的许多重要混合关系。在这篇论文中,我探讨了佩哈尔迪定理 1 中给出的卷积稀化一般结果的对偶,以获得新的关系,并对旧的关系有新的认识。本文指出了整值自回归过程的一些后果以及连续情况下的类似结果。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation and convergence rates in the distributional single index model 分布式单一指数模型的估计和收敛率
IF 1.5 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1111/stan.12336
Fadoua Balabdaoui, Alexander Henzi, Lukas Looser
The distributional single index model is a semiparametric regression model in which the conditional distribution functions <mjx-container aria-label="upper P left parenthesis upper Y less than or equals y vertical bar upper X equals x right parenthesis equals upper F 0 left parenthesis theta 0 left parenthesis x right parenthesis comma y right parenthesis" ctxtmenu_counter="0" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex="1" jax="CHTML" role="application" sre-explorer- style="font-size: 103%; position: relative;" tabindex="0"><mjx-math aria-hidden="true"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children="36,34" data-semantic-content="10" data-semantic- data-semantic-role="equality" data-semantic-speech="upper P left parenthesis upper Y less than or equals y vertical bar upper X equals x right parenthesis equals upper F 0 left parenthesis theta 0 left parenthesis x right parenthesis comma y right parenthesis" data-semantic-type="relseq"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children="0,27" data-semantic-content="35,0" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="37" data-semantic-role="simple function" data-semantic-type="appl"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-font="italic" data-semantic- data-semantic-operator="appl" data-semantic-parent="36" data-semantic-role="simple function" data-semantic-type="identifier"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-mo data-semantic-added="true" data-semantic- data-semantic-operator="appl" data-semantic-parent="36" data-semantic-role="application" data-semantic-type="punctuation" style="margin-left: 0.056em; margin-right: 0.056em;"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children="26" data-semantic-content="1,9" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="36" data-semantic-role="leftright" data-semantic-type="fenced"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator="fenced" data-semantic-parent="27" data-semantic-role="open" data-semantic-type="fence" style="margin-left: 0.056em; margin-right: 0.056em;"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children="24,5,25" data-semantic-content="5" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="27" data-semantic-role="sequence" data-semantic-type="punctuated"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children="2,4" data-semantic-content="3" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="26" data-semantic-role="inequality" data-semantic-type="relseq"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-font="italic" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="24" data-semantic-role="latinletter" data-semantic-type="identifier"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator="relseq,≤" data-semantic-parent="24" data-semantic-role="inequality" data-semantic-type="relation" rspace="5" space="5"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-font="italic" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="24" data-semantic-role="latinletter" data-semantic-type="identifier"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi></mjx-mrow><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator="punctuated" data-semanti
分布式单一指数模型是一种半参数回归模型,其中条件分布函数 P(Y≤y|X=x)=F0(θ0(x),y)$$ Pleft(Yle y|X=xright)={F}_0left({theta}_0(x)、yright) $$ 实值结果变量 Y$$ Y$ 通过单变量参数指标函数 θ0(x)$$ {theta}_0(x) $$ 取决于 d$$ d$ 维协变量 X$$ X$ ,并且随着 θ0(x)$$ {theta}_0(x) $$ 的增加而随机增加。在 θ0(x)=α0⊤x$$ {theta}_0(x)={alpha}_0^{top }x $$ 的重要情况下,我们提出了联合估计 θ0$$ {theta}_0 $$ 和 F0$$ {F}_0 $$ 的最小二乘法,并获得了 n-1/3$$ {n}^{-1/3} $$ 的收敛率、从而改进了给出 n-1/6$ {n}^{-1/6} $$ 收敛率的现有结果。模拟研究表明,估计 α0$$ {alpha}_0 $$ 的收敛速度可能更快。此外,我们还通过对房价数据的应用说明了我们的方法,从而展示了形状限制在单指数模型中的优势。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of the incubation time distribution in the singly and doubly interval censored model 单区间和双区间普查模型中孵化时间分布的估计
IF 1.5 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.1111/stan.12335
Piet Groeneboom
We analyze nonparametric estimators for the distribution function of the incubation time in the singly and doubly interval censoring model. The classical approach is to use parametric families like Weibull, log‐normal or gamma distributions in the estimation procedure. We propose nonparametric estimates for functions of the observations, which stay closer to the data than the classical parametric methods. We also give explicit limit distributions for discrete versions of the models and apply this to compute confidence intervals. The methods complement the analysis of the continuous model in Groeneboom (2021, 2023). R scripts for computation of the estimates are provided in Groeneboom (2020).
我们分析了单区间和双区间普查模型中孵化时间分布函数的非参数估计器。经典的方法是在估计过程中使用参数族,如 Weibull、log-normal 或 gamma 分布。我们提出了观测值函数的非参数估计,它比传统的参数方法更接近数据。我们还给出了离散模型的明确极限分布,并将其用于计算置信区间。这些方法是对 Groeneboom (2021, 2023) 中连续模型分析的补充。计算估计值的 R 脚本在 Groeneboom (2020) 中提供。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Statistica Neerlandica
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