We model the incidence of the COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the epidemic in Castilla-Leon (Spain). Within-province dynamics may be governed by a generalized logistic map, but this lacks of spatial structure. To couple the provinces, we relate the daily new infections through a density-independent parameter that entails positive spatial correlation. Pointwise values of the input parameters are fitted by an optimization procedure. To accommodate the significant variability in the daily data, with abruptly increasing and decreasing magnitudes, a random noise is incorporated into the model, whose parameters are calibrated by maximum likelihood estimation. The calculated paths of the stochastic response and the probabilistic regions are in good agreement with the data.
This paper develops methods to test for associations between two variables with clustered data using a U-Statistic approach with a second-order approximation to the variance of the parameter estimate for the test statistic. The tests that are presented are for clustered versions of: Pearsons χ 2 test, the Spearman rank correlation and Kendall's τ for continuous data or ordinal data and for alternative measures of Kendall's τ that allow for ties in the data. Shih and Fay use the U-Statistic approach but only consider a first-order approximation. The first-order approximation has inflated significance level in scenarios with small sample sizes. We derive the test statistics using the second-order approximations aiming to improve the type I error rates. The method applies to data where clusters have the same number of measurements for each variable or where one of the variables may be measured once per cluster while the other variable may be measured multiple times. We evaluate the performance of the test statistics through simulation with small sample sizes. The methods are all available in the R package cluscor.
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