This study investigates whether traditional and expanded measures of Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) predict chronic and violent institutional misconduct among a cohort of 4613 serious and violent state-institutionalized juvenile offenders. While prior research demonstrates that childhood adversity increases the risk of delinquency, its role in predicting the highest-rate institutional misconduct has been less explored, especially among deeply entrenched youth in juvenile correctional facilities. The study employs logistic regression models to test whether both the standard 10-item ACEs score and an expanded measure—which incorporates experiences such as witnessing violence, extreme poverty, homelessness, and child welfare involvement—are significant predictors of membership in the top 10 % and top 1 % of institutional misconduct perpetrators, after controlling for demographic and justice-related factors. Results indicate that neither the traditional nor the expanded ACEs measure significantly predicted high-rate or violent misconduct, net of other controls. Instead, variables such as age at incarceration, gang affiliation, and a history of mental health problems were more salient predictors of chronic and violent behavior. These findings suggest that, while childhood adversity remains an important context for understanding juvenile system involvement, targeted interventions and screening may need to place greater emphasis on personal characteristics and situational factors within correctional settings. The study's results hold important implications for correctional assessment, intervention design, and trauma-informed programming, indicating a need to look beyond ACEs alone when developing effective strategies for managing and rehabilitating high-risk youth populations.
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