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Provocation, Bargaining, and War 挑衅、讨价还价和战争
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195065
Hyun-Binn Cho, Kyle Haynes, Brandon K. Yoder
The rationalist bargaining literature explains how public statements and military mobilizations can signal resolve. But recent political psychology scholarship shows how such actions can “provoke” targets, increasing their resolve by arousing emotions among their leaders and public. While rationalist models have largely omitted provocation, psychological approaches have neglected its strategic consequences. We model provocation in bargaining, assuming that a challenger’s signals endogenously increase the target’s resolve. Our model shows that introducing provocation can make signals of resolve more credible precisely because their provocative effects make them more costly to send. Moreover, against the prevailing intuition that provocation uniformly promotes conflict, the information from these signals can mitigate their provocative effects and elicit more generous offers than not signaling. Thus, in contrast to psychological accounts, we show that taking provocative actions can be rational and necessary for reaching peaceful bargains. We illustrate these findings with the 1911 Agadir Crisis.
理性主义的讨价还价文献解释了公开声明和军事动员如何表明决心。但最近的政治心理学研究表明,这种行为可以“激怒”目标,通过在领导人和公众中激起情绪来增强他们的决心。虽然理性主义模型在很大程度上忽略了挑衅,但心理学方法忽略了其战略后果。我们在谈判中模拟挑衅,假设挑战者的信号内生地增加了目标的决心。我们的模型表明,引入挑衅可以使决心的信号更加可信,正是因为其挑衅效果使其发送成本更高。此外,与普遍认为挑衅一致会促进冲突的直觉相反,这些信号中的信息可以减轻其挑衅影响,并引发比不发出信号更慷慨的提议。因此,与心理学的说法相反,我们表明,采取挑衅性行动对于达成和平协议是合理和必要的。我们用1911年的阿加迪尔危机来说明这些发现。
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引用次数: 1
Legacies of Survival: Historical Violence and Ethnic Minority Behavior 生存的遗产:历史暴力与少数民族行为
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195384
Amiad Haran Diman, D. Miodownik
How is the electoral behavior of minorities shaped by past violence? Recent studies found that displacement increases hostility between perpetrators and displaced individuals, but there has been paltry research on members of surviving communities. We argue that the latter exhibit the opposite pattern because of their different condition. Violence will cause cross-generational vulnerability, fear and risk-aversion—leading the surviving communities to seek protection and avoid conflict by signalling loyalty and rejecting nationalist movements. In their situation as an excluded minority in the perpetrators’ state, they will be more likely to vote for out-group parties. Exploiting exogenous battlefield dynamics that created inter-regional variation in the Palestinian exodus (1947–1949), microlevel measurements that capture the damage of violence, and an original longitudinal data set, we show that Palestinian villages in Israel more severely impacted by the 1948 war have a much higher vote share to Jewish parties even 70 years later. Survey evidence further supports our theory, revealing that this pattern exists only for members of the surviving communities, and not among displaced individuals. The findings shed new light on the complex social relations that guide political decision-making in post-war settings and divided societies that suffer from protracted conflicts.
过去的暴力事件是如何影响少数族裔的选举行为的?最近的研究发现,流离失所增加了犯罪者和流离失所者之间的敌意,但对幸存社区成员的研究却很少。我们认为,后者由于其不同的条件而表现出相反的模式。暴力将导致跨代的脆弱性、恐惧和风险厌恶,导致幸存的社区通过表示忠诚和拒绝民族主义运动来寻求保护和避免冲突。在他们作为犯罪者所在州被排斥的少数群体的情况下,他们更有可能投票给外部团体政党。利用造成巴勒斯坦人外流(1947–1949)地区间差异的外部战场动态、捕捉暴力破坏的微观层面测量以及原始纵向数据集,我们表明,即使在70年后,受1948年战争影响更严重的以色列巴勒斯坦村庄的选票份额也比犹太政党高得多。调查证据进一步支持了我们的理论,表明这种模式只存在于幸存社区的成员中,而不存在于流离失所的个人中。这些发现为指导战后政治决策的复杂社会关系以及遭受长期冲突的分裂社会提供了新的线索。
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引用次数: 0
Rainy Friday: Religious Participation and Protests 阴雨的星期五:宗教参与和抗议
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-14 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195382
Kyosuke Kikuta
What are the effects of religious participation on collective action such as protests? Until recently, conflict scholars have focused on the macro-level characteristics of religion, while assuming, but rarely analyzing, individual-level mechanisms. I fill in this gap by incorporating insights from the field of American Politics, which has long emphasized the roles of individual-level mechanisms such as attendance at religious gatherings. I hypothesize that attendance at religious gatherings can address problems of collective action and thus lead to protests. I test these hypotheses by exploiting exogenous variation in the attendance at Islamic religious gatherings: rain on the day of Friday Prayer. I apply the design both to macro-level event data and an individual-level survey. The analyses indicate that rainy Fridays decrease the frequency of Muslim religious attendance and lower the likelihood of Muslim protests in Africa. These results imply a core role of communal gatherings in religious mobilization.
宗教参与对抗议等集体行动有什么影响?直到最近,冲突学者一直关注宗教的宏观层面特征,同时假设但很少分析个人层面的机制。我通过吸收美国政治领域的见解来填补这一空白,该领域长期以来一直强调个人层面机制的作用,如参加宗教集会。我假设参加宗教集会可以解决集体行动的问题,从而引发抗议。我通过利用伊斯兰宗教集会出席人数的外生变化来检验这些假设:周五祈祷当天下雨。我将该设计应用于宏观层面的事件数据和个人层面的调查。分析表明,下雨的星期五降低了穆斯林参加宗教活动的频率,也降低了非洲穆斯林抗议的可能性。这些结果意味着社区集会在宗教动员中的核心作用。
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引用次数: 0
Domestic Political Unrest and Sovereign Bond Ratings in the Developing World 发展中国家国内政治动荡与主权债券评级
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195383
G. Biglaiser, Hoon Lee, Ronald J. McGauvran
This paper integrates the credit rating agency and domestic conflict literatures, investigating the effects of non-violent and violent domestic political unrest on sovereign bond ratings. Using up to 60 developing countries and 94 unrest cases from 1996-2018, we find that while countries under domestic unrest often receive bond downgrades, non-violent unrest appears not to be responsible. Further, we use mediation analysis and show that respect for the rule of law and economic stability seem to mediate the relationship between violent and non-violent unrest and bond ratings. Given developing countries' need to issue debt, and the critical role credit rating agencies play in rating sovereign bonds, our work suggests that countries should seek to avoid violent domestic political unrest if for no other reason than to acquire lower-cost capital.
本文综合信用评级机构和国内冲突文献,考察了国内非暴力和暴力政治动荡对主权债券评级的影响。利用1996-2018年多达60个发展中国家和94起动乱案件,我们发现,虽然处于国内动乱中的国家经常被降级债券,但非暴力动乱似乎没有责任。此外,我们使用调解分析表明,尊重法治和经济稳定似乎可以调解暴力和非暴力动乱与债券评级之间的关系。考虑到发展中国家发行债务的需要,以及信用评级机构在主权债券评级中发挥的关键作用,我们的工作表明,如果没有其他原因,除了获得低成本资本,各国应该寻求避免国内暴力政治动荡。
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引用次数: 0
Changes in Perceptions of Border Security Influence Desired Levels of Immigration 边境安全观念的变化影响期望的移民水平
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-11 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195066
Ryan C. Briggs, Omer Solodoch
Security concerns about immigration are on the rise. Many countries respond by fortifying their borders. Yet little is known about the influence of border security measures on perceived threat from immigration. Borders might facilitate group identities and spread fear of outsiders. In contrast, they might enhance citizens’ sense of security and control over immigration. We test these claims using survey experiments run on a quota sample of over 1000 Americans. The findings show that allocating more government resources to border security increases desired levels of immigration. This effect is likely driven by a sense of control over immigration, induced by border security measures even when the number or characteristics of immigrants remain unchanged. Our findings suggest that border controls, which are widely considered as symbols of closure and isolation, can increase public support for immigration.
对移民的安全担忧正在上升。许多国家通过加强边境防御来应对。然而,人们对边境安全措施对移民威胁的影响知之甚少。边界可能会促进群体认同,并传播对外来者的恐惧。相反,他们可能会增强公民的安全感和对移民的控制。我们对1000多名美国人进行了抽样调查,以检验这些说法。研究结果表明,将更多的政府资源分配给边境安全,会增加人们所期望的移民水平。这种效应很可能是由一种对移民的控制感所驱动的,这种控制感是由边境安全措施引起的,即使移民的数量或特征保持不变。我们的研究结果表明,被广泛认为是封闭和孤立象征的边境管制可以增加公众对移民的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Type of Violence and Ingroup Identity: Evidence From the Spanish Civil War 暴力类型与内部群体认同:来自西班牙内战的证据
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-07 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231190099
Sergi Martínez
Wartime violence and authoritarian repression against civilians take various forms. Past research has explored the causes and consequences of violence, but no previous work simultaneously assessed the long-term effects of different types of violence on political identities. This paper contends that indiscriminate attacks can reinforce ingroup identity, whereas the role of civilian agency in selective violence may have a detrimental impact. Equipped with original data capturing municipality-level exposure to both selective and indiscriminate violence during the Spanish civil war (1936–1939) in Biscay (Basque Country), this study examines its legacy on voting behavior (1983–2015). Results indicate that fascist airstrikes increased Basque nationalism while selective violence diminished the popularity of Basque parties. Individual and community-level evidence suggests that airstrikes fostered the intergenerational transmission of political attitudes. Violence can boost national identities, but it can also erode them: it depends on the type.
战时暴力和对平民的专制镇压形式多种多样。过去的研究探讨了暴力的原因和后果,但之前的工作没有同时评估不同类型的暴力对政治身份的长期影响。本文认为,不分青红皂白的攻击可以强化群体内认同,而民事机构在选择性暴力中的作用可能会产生不利影响。本研究利用西班牙内战(1936-1939)期间比斯开(巴斯克地区)市政一级遭受选择性和无差别暴力的原始数据,考察了其对投票行为的影响(1983-2015)。结果表明,法西斯空袭增加了巴斯克民族主义,而选择性暴力则削弱了巴斯克政党的受欢迎程度。个人和社区层面的证据表明,空袭促进了政治态度的代际传递。暴力可以增强国家身份认同,但也可以削弱它们:这取决于类型。
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引用次数: 0
The Economic Coercion Trilemma 经济胁迫三难困境
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231191530
Michael-David Mangini
States often use market access as a bargaining chip in international politics. A state that requires simultaneous compliance in multiple issue areas before granting market access maximizes incentives to comply but also makes them brittle – any targeted states that cannot comply in one issue area have no incentive to comply in any. More generally, programs of economic coercion can achieve at most two of the following three objectives: 1) secure a broad coalition of domestic political support, 2) the association of meaningful trade value with each policy issue, and 3) assurance that enforcing one political issue will not reduce the target’s incentives to comply with conditionality on others. Characteristics of the program’s domestic constituency, of the issues themselves, and of the international economy are key determinants of how the state prioritizes the three objectives. The trilemma explains the number and types of issues that can be linked to economic value.
各国经常利用市场准入作为国际政治中的筹码。在授予市场准入之前,一个州要求在多个问题领域同时遵守规定,这最大限度地激励了遵守规定的动机,但也使其变得脆弱——任何无法在一个问题领域遵守规定的目标州都没有在任何问题领域遵守的动机。更普遍地说,经济胁迫计划最多可以实现以下三个目标中的两个:1)确保国内政治支持的广泛联盟,2)将有意义的贸易价值与每一个政策问题联系起来,以及3)确保执行一个政治问题不会减少目标遵守其他条件的动机。该计划的国内选民、问题本身和国际经济的特点是国家如何优先考虑这三个目标的关键决定因素。三重困境解释了与经济价值相关的问题的数量和类型。
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引用次数: 2
Turning the Tables: Military Intervention and the Onset of Negotiations in Civil War 翻盘:军事干预与内战谈判的开始
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-26 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231190915
R. Dudley
When do negotiations occur in civil war? How does military intervention alter this process? While the existing literature presents models of the onset of negotiations – both mediated and unassisted – they are incomplete if they do not consider third-party states involved in the conflict prior to negotiations. I argue that military intervention impacts negotiation onset by adjusting barriers to negotiation through three pathways: the likelihood of military victory, the risk of signaling weakness, and the presence of additional veto players. I examine these mechanisms using logistic random effects models on a dataset of African civil wars. An extension of the argument addresses how expectations of intervention shape conflict behavior. Rebel-supporting interventions, interventions with independent interests, and asymmetric interventions lead to an increase in the likelihood of negotiations occurring. Models controlling for expectations of intervention also suggest that third parties can impact belligerents’ behavior through both expectations and follow-through.
内战中什么时候进行谈判?军事干预如何改变这一进程?虽然现有文献提出了谈判开始的模式——包括调解和无援助——但如果不考虑谈判前参与冲突的第三方国家,这些模式就不完整。我认为,军事干预通过三种途径调整谈判障碍来影响谈判的开始:军事胜利的可能性、示弱的风险和额外否决权参与者的存在。我在非洲内战的数据集上使用逻辑随机效应模型来研究这些机制。该论点的延伸涉及干预的期望如何影响冲突行为。支持叛乱的干预、具有独立利益的干预和不对称干预导致谈判发生的可能性增加。控制干预预期的模型还表明,第三方可以通过预期和后续行动影响交战方的行为。
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引用次数: 0
Past and Present Group Exclusion and Conflict: Group Marginalization, Opportunity, and Islamic State Foreign Fighter Mobilization 过去和现在的群体排斥和冲突:群体边缘化、机会和伊斯兰国外国战斗人员动员
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231190914
Jared F. Edgerton
Researchers and policymakers have increasingly recognized foreign fighter mobilization as a national security threat to foreign states and domestic populations. Yet, scholars remain divided on the motivations of foreign combatants, arguing that fighters may be motivated by grievances, opportunity, or material incentives. The motivations of foreign fighters may be especially complex, as they are engaging in a conflict outside of their state. I analyze how historical and present-day group exclusionary policies and opportunity shape mobilization. To do so, I leverage novel data consisting of individual fighter data of Islamic State volunteers fighting in Iraq and Syria. Consistent with my theoretical framework, I find that a higher rate of Islamic State fighters come from areas where Sunni Muslims were denied access to political power and have greater state capacity.
研究人员和政策制定者越来越认识到,动员外国战士是对外国和国内民众的国家安全威胁。然而,学者们对外国战斗人员的动机仍然存在分歧,他们认为战斗人员可能是出于不满、机会或物质激励。外国战斗人员的动机可能特别复杂,因为他们正在参与本州以外的冲突。我分析了历史和当今的群体排斥政策和机会如何影响动员。为此,我利用了由在伊拉克和叙利亚作战的伊斯兰国志愿者的个人战士数据组成的新数据。与我的理论框架一致,我发现伊斯兰国战士的比例更高,他们来自逊尼派穆斯林被剥夺政治权力和国家能力的地区。
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引用次数: 0
Does Deplatforming Work? 去平台化有效吗?
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-20 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231188909
Danny Klinenberg
Social media has become an outlet for extremists to fundraise and organize. While governments deliberate on how to regulate, some social media companies have removed creators of offensive content —deplatforming. I estimate the effects of deplatforming on revenue and viewership, using variation in the timing of removals across two video-streaming companies — YouTube, and its far-right competitor, Bitchute. Being deplatformed on Youtube results in a 30% increase in weekly Bitcoin revenue and a 50% increase in viewership on Bitchute. This increase in Bitchute activity is less than that on YouTube, meaning that deplatforming works in decreasing a content creator’s overall views and revenue.
社交媒体已经成为极端分子筹集和组织资金的渠道。当政府考虑如何监管时,一些社交媒体公司已经删除了攻击性内容的创作者——去平台化。我估计了去平台化对收入和收视率的影响,使用了两家视频流媒体公司——YouTube及其极右翼竞争对手Bitchute——删除时间的变化。Youtube上的去平台化导致比特币每周收入增加30%,比特币上的收视率增加50%。比特币活动的增长幅度小于YouTube,这意味着去平台化会降低内容创作者的整体浏览量和收入。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal of Conflict Resolution
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