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Peace Negotiations and Civilian Targeting 和平谈判和以平民为目标
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241308270
Ipek Ece Sener
Does the participation of armed actors in peace talks influence their strategy of targeting civilians? I argue that before peace talks belligerents have incentives to demonstrate their military strength and respect for humanitarian standards to international third parties. Thus, they are more likely to spare civilians and discriminately target enemy combatants before international talks. Using change point analysis and surrogate data testing on the daily casualty and territorial control data for the Syrian Civil War, I show that belligerents engaged in negotiations incite more combatant and fewer civilian casualties in the enemy territory immediately before an international meeting is to be held. These findings underscore that international parties can drive combatants to avoid civilian victimization before peace talks by offering them a seat at the negotiation table.
武装行为体参与和平谈判是否影响其以平民为目标的战略?我认为,在和平谈判之前,交战各方有向国际第三方展示其军事实力和尊重人道主义标准的动机。因此,在国际谈判之前,他们更有可能不伤害平民,而歧视性地攻击敌方战斗人员。通过对叙利亚内战的每日伤亡和领土控制数据进行变化点分析和替代数据测试,我表明,在举行国际会议之前,参与谈判的交战各方在敌方领土上煽动更多的战斗人员和更少的平民伤亡。这些调查结果强调,国际各方可以通过在谈判桌上为战斗人员提供席位,促使他们在和平谈判之前避免平民受害。
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引用次数: 0
Crises and Negotiations in Mutual Interventions 相互干预中的危机与谈判
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-12-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241309299
Allard Duursma, Henning Tamm
Why do states that simultaneously support rebel groups in each other’s intrastate conflicts enter negotiations to resolve such mutual interventions? This is an important question, as negotiations between interveners typically lead to negotiated settlements, which in turn tend to make their intrastate conflicts far less deadly. We argue that international crises make negotiations more likely. Crises raise the costs of intervention and often lead potential mediators to put pressure on states to negotiate. Using new monthly data on mutual interventions in Africa, the article shows that crises are indeed significantly associated with the likelihood that negotiations will occur. This finding is robust to using fixed effects and matching. The article contributes to the literature by investigating a widespread though little-studied type of conflict, as well as by studying the impact of state leaders’ crisis perception using a quantitative research design, which helps overcome a methodological limitation seen in previous studies.
为什么在彼此国内冲突中同时支持反叛组织的国家会通过谈判来解决这种相互干预?这是一个重要的问题,因为干预者之间的谈判通常会导致谈判解决,这反过来往往会使他们的国内冲突远不那么致命。我们认为,国际危机使谈判更有可能。危机提高了干预的成本,往往会导致潜在的调解人向各国施压,要求它们进行谈判。文章利用非洲相互干预的新月度数据表明,危机确实与谈判发生的可能性显著相关。这一发现对于使用固定效应和匹配是稳健的。本文通过调查一种广泛但很少研究的冲突类型,以及通过使用定量研究设计研究国家领导人危机感知的影响,从而有助于克服先前研究中出现的方法限制,从而为文献做出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Dovish Hawks: How Leaders’ Combat Experience Influences the End of Civil Conflicts in Peace Agreements 鸽派鹰派:领导人的战斗经验如何影响和平协议中国内冲突的结束
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-12-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241309284
Juliana Tappe Ortiz
Who are the leaders who end civil wars through peace agreements? I theorize that the prior combat experience of a state leader is an important life experience with direct relevance for how leaders evaluate conflict outcomes. Combat experience increases sensitivity to human losses and gives the state leader a hawkish reputation, increasing internal support, boosting their risk-tolerance, and convincing the rebel leader to take the leader seriously. Using a nested research design, I show that civil wars are more likely to terminate in peace agreements when the leader in charge knows the battlefield. I supplement the quantitative analysis of all state leaders in civil conflicts from 1989 to 2015 with a qualitative pathway case of Indonesia’s President Yudhoyono. These findings expand upon insights on leaders’ attributes indicating that prior combat experience has different effects on potential conflict outcomes in intrastate than in international wars.
谁是通过和平协议结束内战的领导人?我的理论是,国家领导人之前的战斗经验是一种重要的生活经验,与领导人如何评估冲突结果直接相关。战斗经验增加了对人员损失的敏感性,给国家领导人带来了鹰派的声誉,增加了内部支持,提高了他们的风险承受能力,并说服反对派领导人认真对待领导人。通过一个嵌套的研究设计,我表明,当领导者了解战场时,内战更有可能在和平协议中结束。我在对1989年至2015年国内冲突中所有国家领导人的定量分析的基础上,补充了印度尼西亚总统尤多约诺(Yudhoyono)的定性路径案例。这些发现扩展了对领导者属性的见解,表明先前的战斗经验对国内战争和国际战争中潜在冲突结果的影响不同。
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引用次数: 0
The Law Behind Dispute Onset: How Legal Uncertainty Drives Maritime Boundary Disputes 争端发生背后的法律:法律不确定性如何推动海洋边界争端
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-12-06 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241305076
Umut Yüksel
The making of international law through multilateral conventions and adjudication often leads to periods of legal uncertainty, times in which there are alternative rules and divergent views on how they ought to be applied to particular cases. I argue that legal uncertainty gives states opportunities and incentives to formulate excessive unilateral claims, thus making disputes more likely to arise. I illustrate my argument with a comprehensive analysis of maritime boundary disputes in the aftermath of the Second World War. In this period, the law regulating maritime boundary-making has been marked by varying degrees of uncertainty due to different rules and interpretations proffered by various multilateral and judicial lawmaking attempts. I find strong evidence that high legal uncertainty is associated with an increased probability of dispute onset. The analysis calls for an important rethinking of the impact of legalization on international affairs, both in maritime boundary-making and in other issues areas.
通过多边公约和裁决制定国际法往往会导致法律不确定的时期,在这个时期,存在可选择的规则和对如何将这些规则适用于特定案件的不同意见。我认为,法律的不确定性给国家提供了制定过多单方面主张的机会和动机,从而使争端更有可能出现。我通过对二战后海上边界争端的全面分析来阐明我的观点。在这一时期,由于各种多边立法和司法立法尝试提供了不同的规则和解释,规范海洋划界的法律具有不同程度的不确定性。我发现强有力的证据表明,法律的高度不确定性与纠纷发生的可能性增加有关。该分析要求重新思考合法化对国际事务的影响,包括在海洋边界划定和其他问题领域。
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引用次数: 0
Voter Intimidation as a Tool of Mobilization or Demobilization? Evidence from West Bengal, India 选民恐吓是动员还是遣散的工具?来自印度西孟加拉邦的证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241298890
Ursula Daxecker, Annekatrin Deglow, Hanne Fjelde
This study presents new theory and evidence on the repertoire of electoral intimidation, suggesting that threats can be used to deter rival party supporters from voting but also to mobilize citizens to vote for a particular party. We expect these strategies to unfold in the same electoral context, but differ in targeting and incidence; while threats to demobilize are concentrated in closely contested areas and occur more frequently overall, threats to mobilize target fewer voters and are centered in parties’ own strongholds. Recognizing the difficulty of surveying citizens about sensitive experiences, we combine qualitative material from local news with evidence from a list experiment embedded in an original survey conducted after the 2019 elections in the Indian state of West Bengal. Our empirical findings corroborate our expectations: areas without overt violence may nevertheless be highly coercive, underlining the importance of studying the full repertoire of electoral violence.
这项研究提出了关于选举恐吓的新理论和证据,表明威胁可以用来阻止对手政党的支持者投票,也可以用来动员公民投票给特定政党。我们期望这些战略在相同的选举背景下展开,但在目标和发生率方面有所不同;虽然遣散威胁集中在竞争激烈的地区,而且总体上发生的频率更高,但动员威胁针对的选民较少,集中在各政党自己的据点。认识到调查公民敏感经历的困难,我们将当地新闻的定性材料与2019年印度西孟加拉邦选举后进行的原始调查中的清单实验证据结合起来。我们的经验调查结果证实了我们的期望:尽管如此,没有公开暴力的地区可能是高度强制的,这强调了研究选举暴力全部情况的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The Power of Cabinet Appointments in Autocracies: Elite Cooptation and Anti-Regime Mass Uprisings 专制国家内阁任命的权力:精英的合作与反政权的群众起义
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-12-02 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241304703
Berker Kavasoglu
Why are some autocratic regimes more prone to mass uprisings than others? This article argues that autocratic leaders can mitigate opposition mobilization by strategically appointing opposition leaders to cabinet positions. Drawing on yearly data from autocracies between 1966 and 2020, the article exploits temporal variations in the composition of cabinets and the onset of mass uprisings within autocratic regimes. The findings demonstrate that appointing opposition elites to cabinet positions significantly decreases the likelihood of anti-regime mass uprisings. The results are robust across alternative model specifications and estimation strategies addressing endogeneity concerns. By demonstrating why some autocracies with organized opposition avoid uprisings while others face repeated challenges, this study offers novel insights into how opposition cooptation stabilizes autocratic regimes.
为什么一些专制政权比其他政权更容易发生群众起义?本文认为,专制领导人可以通过战略性地任命反对派领导人担任内阁职务来缓解反对派的动员。根据1966年至2020年独裁政权的年度数据,文章利用了独裁政权内部内阁组成和大规模起义的时间变化。研究结果表明,任命反对派精英担任内阁职务显著降低了反政府大规模起义的可能性。结果在解决内生性问题的可选模型规范和估计策略中是健壮的。通过证明为什么一些有组织反对派的独裁政权避免了起义,而另一些则面临着反复的挑战,本研究为反对派的合作如何稳定独裁政权提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Whom to Repress: Tall Poppies, Key Players, and Weakest Links 要压制谁:高个子、关键人物和最薄弱环节
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241303150
Kris De Jaegher
This paper presents a game-theoretic model where dissidents with heterogeneous abilities and motivations contribute to collective action. A regime demotivates dissidents by preemptively increasing their costs of contributing, using a budget that can be spread across them in any way desired. The regime’s optimal targeting strategy is shown to depend on the (technological) degree of complementarity between dissidents’ contributions. For low complementarity, it is optimal to equalize all dissidents’ strengths (where strength depends both on motivation and ability; tall-poppies strategy). For intermediate complementarity, it is optimal to focus all repression on the most able dissidents (key-player strategy). For high complementarity, it is optimal to focus all repression on the least-motivated dissidents (weakest-link strategy). The range of intermediate complementarities for which the key-player strategy is optimal is larger, the larger heterogeneity in abilities. The paper finds indication for the use of these strategies in concrete examples of preemptive repression.
本文提出了具有异质能力和动机的持不同政见者参与集体行动的博弈论模型。一个政权通过先发制人地增加他们的贡献成本来打击持不同政见者,使用的预算可以以任何想要的方式分摊给他们。该政权的最佳目标策略取决于不同政见者贡献之间的(技术)互补性程度。在互补性较低的情况下,最优的做法是平衡所有持不同政见者的优势(优势既取决于动机,也取决于能力;tall-poppies策略)。对于中间互补性,最理想的是将所有镇压集中在最有能力的持不同政见者身上(关键人物战略)。为了实现高度互补性,最理想的做法是将所有镇压集中在动机最弱的持不同政见者身上(最薄弱环节战略)。关键角色策略最优的中间互补性范围越大,能力异质性越大。本文在先发制人镇压的具体例子中发现了使用这些策略的迹象。
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引用次数: 0
Personalist Regime and Rebel Sponsorship in Civil Conflicts 国内冲突中的个人主义政权与叛军支持
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241297641
Ruixing Cao
Under what conditions do sponsors directly intervene in the target state’s civil conflicts? While previous research on state sponsorship for the rebels tends to focus on how ties between the two can influence their interactions, this article argues that the sponsor is more willing to provide combat support when the target state is under the rule of a personalist regime. Due to a lack of internal constraints, personalist leaders are more likely to pursue aggressive foreign policies. The high degree of policy flexibility also makes personalist regimes unreliable partners for negotiation. To avoid future instability, rival states are more likely to use civil conflicts as opportunities to weaken the personalist regime. Military ineffectiveness under personalist regimes also lowers the cost of combat support and potentially allows sponsors to reap more material benefits from the civil conflict. Utilizing comprehensive data on personalism and rebel sponsorship, I find support for this argument.
在什么情况下,赞助者会直接介入目标国的国内冲突?以往有关国家赞助反叛分子的研究往往侧重于两者之间的关系如何影响其互动,而本文则认为,当目标国处于个人主义政权统治之下时,赞助者更愿意提供战斗支持。由于缺乏内部约束,个人主义领导人更有可能推行侵略性的外交政策。政策的高度灵活性也使个人主义政权成为不可靠的谈判伙伴。为了避免未来的不稳定,敌对国家更有可能利用国内冲突削弱个人主义政权。个人主义政权下的军事效率低下也降低了作战支持的成本,并有可能使支持者从国内冲突中获得更多的物质利益。利用有关个人主义和叛军赞助的综合数据,我发现这一论点得到了支持。
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引用次数: 0
Does Local Representation Reduce Self-Determination Conflict? 地方代表制会减少自决冲突吗?
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241299815
Alejandro Corvalan
There is ample evidence that the political exclusion of minorities from state power increases the risk of conflict. Nevertheless, do these same results apply to local representation? I explore this question using the success in mayoral elections of the Chilean Mapuche, a deprived indigenous minority in a longstanding conflict against the Chilean state. Combining a novel database on conflict and a surname strategy to single out Mapuche mayors, panel evidence suggests a negative association between minority mayors and local self-determination conflict. To provide identification, I exploit an electoral reform that exogenously changes the candidates’ probability of being elected. Land invasions, a primary type of conflict strategy for ethnic minorities, significantly decreased after the election of Mapuche mayors. I discuss the role of local horizontal inequalities and coercion as possible mechanisms.
有大量证据表明,在政治上将少数群体排除在国家权力之外会增加冲突的风险。然而,这些结果是否同样适用于地方代表制?我利用智利马普切人在市长选举中的成功经验探讨了这一问题,马普切人是一个被剥夺了权利的土著少数民族,与智利政府有着长期冲突。结合新颖的冲突数据库和将马普切市长单列出来的姓氏策略,小组证据表明少数民族市长与地方自决冲突之间存在负相关。为了提供识别,我利用了选举改革,从外部改变了候选人的当选概率。土地侵占是少数民族的一种主要冲突策略,在马普切人当选市长后,土地侵占明显减少。我讨论了地方横向不平等和胁迫作为可能机制的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Introducing the Rebels’ Armament Dataset (RAD): Empirical Evidence on Rebel Military Capabilities 介绍叛军军备数据集 (RAD):反叛分子军事能力的经验证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241297692
Oliver Pamp, Andreas Mehltretter, Paul Binder, Paul W. Thurner
There is a scarcity of systematic data regarding the military equipment of rebel groups engaged in intrastate conflicts. This empirical gap has impeded the rigorous evaluation of (formal) theories concerning militarized interactions between governments and rebel groups. To address this deficiency, we have developed the Rebels' Armament Dataset (RAD). This dataset provides detailed information on the military arsenals of 270 groups over the period from 1989 to 2020, categorizing 15 different types of small arms, light weapons, explosives, and major weapons. In this article, we introduce RAD, compare it with existing datasets, elucidate the data collection process, present an initial overview of the information contained in it, and apply the data to examine civilian suffering in civil wars. Although this dataset is merely an initial step that can be expanded as additional public information becomes available, RAD offers the first organized compilation of data on the armament levels of rebels.
有关参与国内冲突的反叛组织军事装备的系统数据十分匮乏。这一经验空白阻碍了对有关政府与反叛组织之间军事化互动的(正式)理论进行严格评估。为了弥补这一不足,我们开发了叛军武器装备数据集(RAD)。该数据集提供了 1989 年至 2020 年期间 270 个反叛组织军事武库的详细信息,并对 15 种不同类型的小武器、轻武器、爆炸物和主要武器进行了分类。在本文中,我们将介绍 RAD,将其与现有数据集进行比较,阐明数据收集过程,对其中包含的信息进行初步概述,并将数据用于研究内战中的平民苦难。尽管该数据集仅仅是第一步,随着更多公开信息的出现还可以进一步扩展,但 RAD 首次有组织地汇编了有关叛军军备水平的数据。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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