Pub Date : 2022-03-22DOI: 10.1177/07388942221077914
Anselm Hager, Kunaal Sharma
We study whether religious anti-violence norms can reduce violent attitudes in settings of deep religious divisions. Our study context is a neighborhood in Nairobi with a history of religious violence. We randomly expose 576 Christian and Muslim respondents to anti-violence norms drawn from religious sources and find that the primes reduce violent attitudes by 0.2 standard deviations. We find no evidence, however, that highlighting the norms’ religious source increases their effectiveness. Rather, we show that subjects apply the norms in a literal manner, suggesting that it is the norms’ content that make them effective.
{"title":"Can religious norms reduce violent attitudes? Experimental evidence from a Muslim–Christian conflict","authors":"Anselm Hager, Kunaal Sharma","doi":"10.1177/07388942221077914","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221077914","url":null,"abstract":"We study whether religious anti-violence norms can reduce violent attitudes in settings of deep religious divisions. Our study context is a neighborhood in Nairobi with a history of religious violence. We randomly expose 576 Christian and Muslim respondents to anti-violence norms drawn from religious sources and find that the primes reduce violent attitudes by 0.2 standard deviations. We find no evidence, however, that highlighting the norms’ religious source increases their effectiveness. Rather, we show that subjects apply the norms in a literal manner, suggesting that it is the norms’ content that make them effective.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44090995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-07DOI: 10.1177/07388942221081792
Barış Arı
Costs associated with recognizing an internal armed challenger as a legitimate bargaining partner deter governments from initiating peace talks. Yet peaceful termination of conflict requires formal negotiations between the belligerents. This article presents evidence that democratic reforms provide a window of opportunity for peace talks. Democratic reforms represent an opportunity to break away from the past policies of the state and render the conflict as an artifact of the preceding authoritarian institutions. The article contributes to the research field by enhancing our ability to predict negotiations. It also highlights that democratic reforms can be undertaken during an ongoing civil conflict.
{"title":"Democratization as an impetus for peace talks in civil wars","authors":"Barış Arı","doi":"10.1177/07388942221081792","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221081792","url":null,"abstract":"Costs associated with recognizing an internal armed challenger as a legitimate bargaining partner deter governments from initiating peace talks. Yet peaceful termination of conflict requires formal negotiations between the belligerents. This article presents evidence that democratic reforms provide a window of opportunity for peace talks. Democratic reforms represent an opportunity to break away from the past policies of the state and render the conflict as an artifact of the preceding authoritarian institutions. The article contributes to the research field by enhancing our ability to predict negotiations. It also highlights that democratic reforms can be undertaken during an ongoing civil conflict.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42694310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-03DOI: 10.1177/07388942221080105
C. Steinert
The Chinese regime is well known for the large-scale detention of dissidents and ethnic minorities. However, little is known about the fates of Chinese political prisoners. This study investigates determinants of the duration of political imprisonment in China. I argue that the duration of political imprisonment is shaped by (a) the perceived threat of individuals’ actions, and (b) their ethnic and religious identities. Drawing on the Chinese political prisoner database, I investigate predictors of the duration of political imprisonment with survival models. Since preceding actions shape detention times, I hand-code each prisoner's criminalized actions that led to incarceration. The evidence suggests that the Chinese regime conditions the duration of political imprisonment on prisoners’ demands and their collective action potential. The findings further demonstrate that ethnic Uyghurs and Tibetans are imprisoned significantly longer than non-minority political prisoners. Additional analyses demonstrate that ethnic Uyghurs are also significantly more likely to die in prison.
{"title":"The duration of political imprisonment: Evidence from China","authors":"C. Steinert","doi":"10.1177/07388942221080105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221080105","url":null,"abstract":"The Chinese regime is well known for the large-scale detention of dissidents and ethnic minorities. However, little is known about the fates of Chinese political prisoners. This study investigates determinants of the duration of political imprisonment in China. I argue that the duration of political imprisonment is shaped by (a) the perceived threat of individuals’ actions, and (b) their ethnic and religious identities. Drawing on the Chinese political prisoner database, I investigate predictors of the duration of political imprisonment with survival models. Since preceding actions shape detention times, I hand-code each prisoner's criminalized actions that led to incarceration. The evidence suggests that the Chinese regime conditions the duration of political imprisonment on prisoners’ demands and their collective action potential. The findings further demonstrate that ethnic Uyghurs and Tibetans are imprisoned significantly longer than non-minority political prisoners. Additional analyses demonstrate that ethnic Uyghurs are also significantly more likely to die in prison.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45640701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-02DOI: 10.1177/07388942221082234
Marius Mehrl
Recent research examines when and why women join rebel groups as combatants. However, we are only beginning to understand how their presence affects rebel group behaviour and conflict dynamics more generally. I address this gap by analysing how women's participation influences two dimensions of rebel behaviour: their relationship to civilians and their fighting performance. I argue that a greater number of female rebels decreases civilian victimization, but also reduces rebel combat performance. I test these propositions using time-varying district-level data from the Nepalese civil war. The results support both expectations. These findings increase our understanding of the effects of women's participation in civil war.
{"title":"Female combatants and rebel group behaviour: Evidence from Nepal","authors":"Marius Mehrl","doi":"10.1177/07388942221082234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221082234","url":null,"abstract":"Recent research examines when and why women join rebel groups as combatants. However, we are only beginning to understand how their presence affects rebel group behaviour and conflict dynamics more generally. I address this gap by analysing how women's participation influences two dimensions of rebel behaviour: their relationship to civilians and their fighting performance. I argue that a greater number of female rebels decreases civilian victimization, but also reduces rebel combat performance. I test these propositions using time-varying district-level data from the Nepalese civil war. The results support both expectations. These findings increase our understanding of the effects of women's participation in civil war.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41523729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-22DOI: 10.1177/07388942211066117
C. Davenport
This extension of Christian Davenport's virtual Presidential address to the Peace Science Society International attempts to: (1) identify as well as confront some of the issues that divide the Peace Science community and (2) provide some ideas/actions about what can be done to fix them. The article is as much a reflection on where we have been as it is a call to where we must go.
Christian Davenport对国际和平科学协会的虚拟总统演讲的延伸，试图:(1)识别并面对一些分裂和平科学社区的问题，(2)提供一些可以做些什么来解决这些问题的想法/行动。这篇文章既是对我们走过的路的反思，也是对我们必须去的地方的呼唤。
{"title":"Against polarization","authors":"C. Davenport","doi":"10.1177/07388942211066117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942211066117","url":null,"abstract":"This extension of Christian Davenport's virtual Presidential address to the Peace Science Society International attempts to: (1) identify as well as confront some of the issues that divide the Peace Science community and (2) provide some ideas/actions about what can be done to fix them. The article is as much a reflection on where we have been as it is a call to where we must go.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45646601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-22DOI: 10.1177/07388942221081103
Wukki Kim, T. Sandler
This paper quantifies how past transnational terrorist attacks against a potential donor's assets result in enhanced foreign aid flows to a country hosting the responsible terrorist group. Given the reversed causality between foreign aid and terrorism, our empirical analysis puts forward an instrumental variable. Both conflict and governance assistance are shown to stem from transnational terrorist incidents involving recipient–donor dyads during 1974–2013 for a global sample. For recipient-related terrorism, lagged transnational terrorist events against a donor's assets display a robust positive impact on conflict and governance aid. Placebo or falsification tests support the exogeneity of the instrument.
{"title":"Does transnational terrorism stimulate foreign assistance?","authors":"Wukki Kim, T. Sandler","doi":"10.1177/07388942221081103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221081103","url":null,"abstract":"This paper quantifies how past transnational terrorist attacks against a potential donor's assets result in enhanced foreign aid flows to a country hosting the responsible terrorist group. Given the reversed causality between foreign aid and terrorism, our empirical analysis puts forward an instrumental variable. Both conflict and governance assistance are shown to stem from transnational terrorist incidents involving recipient–donor dyads during 1974–2013 for a global sample. For recipient-related terrorism, lagged transnational terrorist events against a donor's assets display a robust positive impact on conflict and governance aid. Placebo or falsification tests support the exogeneity of the instrument.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42267725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-22DOI: 10.1177/07388942211066539
Francisco Villamil
Wartime civilian victimization produces a counter-reaction against the perpetrator. However, this effect hinges on the creation of collective memories of wartime events. In many countries, former fighting actors and political elites try to redirect memories of wartime events through denial, propaganda, and co-optation. Previous works have ignored these aspects. I argue that the effect of violence is conditional on the capacity of local communities to build collective memories and bypass those efforts. I test this argument using local-level data from Guatemala. The results show that the effects of state violence on postwar voting depend on prewar exposure to political mobilization.
{"title":"Violence, co-optation, and postwar voting in Guatemala","authors":"Francisco Villamil","doi":"10.1177/07388942211066539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942211066539","url":null,"abstract":"Wartime civilian victimization produces a counter-reaction against the perpetrator. However, this effect hinges on the creation of collective memories of wartime events. In many countries, former fighting actors and political elites try to redirect memories of wartime events through denial, propaganda, and co-optation. Previous works have ignored these aspects. I argue that the effect of violence is conditional on the capacity of local communities to build collective memories and bypass those efforts. I test this argument using local-level data from Guatemala. The results show that the effects of state violence on postwar voting depend on prewar exposure to political mobilization.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43478638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-09DOI: 10.1177/07388942211072433
Saadet Ulasoglu Imamoglu
Recent studies suggest that a lack of judicial independence increases the risk of violent action, diminishing the incentives to solve disputes peacefully. However, violent action is not the only option when judiciaries are under the control of the executive. I argue that individuals become refugees in countries with non-independent judiciaries, losing their hope that violations of rules by the executive or privileged groups will be tried fairly. Using data from 181 countries over the 1976–2015 period, I find evidence that the lack of judicial independence leads countries to produce more refugees than others.
{"title":"Judicial independence and refugee flights","authors":"Saadet Ulasoglu Imamoglu","doi":"10.1177/07388942211072433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942211072433","url":null,"abstract":"Recent studies suggest that a lack of judicial independence increases the risk of violent action, diminishing the incentives to solve disputes peacefully. However, violent action is not the only option when judiciaries are under the control of the executive. I argue that individuals become refugees in countries with non-independent judiciaries, losing their hope that violations of rules by the executive or privileged groups will be tried fairly. Using data from 181 countries over the 1976–2015 period, I find evidence that the lack of judicial independence leads countries to produce more refugees than others.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46422812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-08DOI: 10.1177/07388942211062495
Ilker Kalin, Marie Olson Lounsbery, F. Pearson
Non-violent movements are rarely confined to the borders of the societies in which they take place. International actors are prone to take a side in the face of such resistance. Yet knowledge is limited on external actors’ effects on outcomes of non-violent protests abroad. Thus, we zero in on the strategic logic behind major powers’ involvement decisions regarding such movements, and the impact those decisions have on campaign outcomes. We find that major powers tend to undermine non-violent movements when target states are strategically important; we find also an indirect link between major power support for movements and security force defections in target states, thus improving success prospects for the protestors. Our research adds a dyadic international dimension to the question of external support during non-violent resistance movements and expands the current knowledge base regarding the identity and direction of support.
{"title":"Major power politics and non-violent resistance movements","authors":"Ilker Kalin, Marie Olson Lounsbery, F. Pearson","doi":"10.1177/07388942211062495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942211062495","url":null,"abstract":"Non-violent movements are rarely confined to the borders of the societies in which they take place. International actors are prone to take a side in the face of such resistance. Yet knowledge is limited on external actors’ effects on outcomes of non-violent protests abroad. Thus, we zero in on the strategic logic behind major powers’ involvement decisions regarding such movements, and the impact those decisions have on campaign outcomes. We find that major powers tend to undermine non-violent movements when target states are strategically important; we find also an indirect link between major power support for movements and security force defections in target states, thus improving success prospects for the protestors. Our research adds a dyadic international dimension to the question of external support during non-violent resistance movements and expands the current knowledge base regarding the identity and direction of support.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44494282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-27DOI: 10.1177/07388942211062840
J. Hong, Wenhui Yang
This paper explores whether the cross-border effect of ethnic violence is contingent on internal factors, such as domestic security measures, distribution of religious sites, availability of communication tools, and proximity to turbulent neighboring countries. Using county-level data from Xinjiang (1995–2012), our analyses show no support for direct violence-enhancing effects of outside terrorism in Xinjiang. When terrorist attacks increase globally or in neighboring countries, overall violence in Xinjiang diminishes. We attribute this to increased security measures by the government. However, the reduction in violence is highly conditional on local factors. We find that historical religiosity and geographic proximity to the border reduce the subsident effects of external terrorism.
{"title":"Conditional cross-border effects of terrorism in China","authors":"J. Hong, Wenhui Yang","doi":"10.1177/07388942211062840","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942211062840","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores whether the cross-border effect of ethnic violence is contingent on internal factors, such as domestic security measures, distribution of religious sites, availability of communication tools, and proximity to turbulent neighboring countries. Using county-level data from Xinjiang (1995–2012), our analyses show no support for direct violence-enhancing effects of outside terrorism in Xinjiang. When terrorist attacks increase globally or in neighboring countries, overall violence in Xinjiang diminishes. We attribute this to increased security measures by the government. However, the reduction in violence is highly conditional on local factors. We find that historical religiosity and geographic proximity to the border reduce the subsident effects of external terrorism.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41306693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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