European Journal of Population-Revue Europeenne De Demographie最新文献

House prices rose rapidly in rich societies over the past decade, inhibiting young adults' access to affordable, family-friendly housing. Over the same period, fertility has declined. Some recent studies have examined the connection between these trends, but the individual-level mechanisms that link house prices to fertility remain underexplored. We address this research gap by using register data on the full population of the Netherlands between 2012 and 2023, a period during which house prices increased dramatically. We link variation in changes in house prices across NUTS-3 regions to yearly conception risks and examine the mediating and moderating role of individual-level homeownership. Results show that increasing house prices are associated with lower fertility, which can partly be explained by the lower propensity of young adults to be homeowners and partly by decreased fertility among renters in more expensive housing markets. In contrast, increasing house prices increase the fertility of homeowners. This positive home equity effect is found only among those who entered into homeownership more than three years ago. These results indicate that rising house prices have likely contributed to the fertility decline observed after 2010 among younger cohorts and may amplify fertility differences between housing market insiders and outsiders.

Numerous studies have explored the influences of family policies, such as formal childcare use, and migration on fertility, with mixed findings. However, limited research has examined how formal childcare use (or the lack thereof) affects both fertility intentions and behaviours among native and migrant women. This study uses Italy as a case study, where the familistic welfare system creates challenges in work-family reconciliation and female workforce participation, particularly for migrant women facing precarious jobs and higher fertility. This results in employment disparities between migrant and native women, especially among mothers. Using the 2012 Birth Sample Survey from the Italian National Institute of Statistics, we address two research questions: (i) Does formal childcare use for one child positively influence mothers' fertility intentions and behaviours to have another? (ii) Does this effect vary according to migration background? We apply multinomial logistic regression models to analyse the relationship between mothers' fertility intentions and behaviours and childcare use by migration background, migratory generation, and partner's nationality. Our results show that mothers using formal childcare-either stable or occasional-are more likely to have positive fertility behaviours than those with unmet needs, with differences by migration background. Among mothers using formal care, natives show higher positive short-term fertility intentions than migrants, while natives with unmet childcare needs are less likely to have another child than migrants. While formal childcare has limited effect on fertility, unmet childcare needs emerge as a crucial factor, highlighting the need for policies addressing broader socio-economic and cultural factors shaping fertility decisions.

Seasonal mortality fluctuations significantly affect national life expectancy, yet their role in regional inequalities remains underexplored. Understanding this is crucial for targeted health policies aimed at reducing spatial mortality differences. We quantify the impact of seasonal excess mortality on regional life expectancy levels (e₀) and inequalities in Italy. Using monthly mortality data from the Italian National Statistical Institute by region (N = 20), sex and age between 2005 and 2019, we assessed e₀ losses due to seasonality by using the general approach of comparing observed e₀ with minimum achievable levels. Seasonal effects on inequalities in e₀ were quantified by comparing standard deviations with and without excess seasonal mortality. We then analysed regional contributions using decomposition analysis. Seasonal excess mortality led to an average loss in e₀ of 1.4 years (1.36-1.70) across Italian regions. This effect was most pronounced in southern and insular regions (Campania and Sicilia), especially for winter-related excess mortality. Our analysis showed that spatial inequality in e₀ would have been reduced on average by 11.2% by eliminating excess seasonal mortality, mostly due to excess winter mortality (-7.5%). However, during the years with high mortality burdens (2005 and 2015), seasonality contributed to spatial mortality inequality by 10% and 5.2%, respectively. The regional contributions to e₀ inequality revealed that Campania and Sicilia also had the strongest role in increasing spatial mortality variation throughout the period. The pronounced regional inequalities in e₀ losses due to seasonal excess mortality contributed significantly to shaping regional e₀ variation in Italy, mostly due to different impacts of winter mortality within the country.

The consequences of educational expansion and changes in couples' educational distribution on mortality risk remain understudied. Using Finnish full population register data, this study examines the extent to which the education of both partners in married and cohabiting couples born between 1932 and 1970 is related to mortality risk. The results of Gompertz survival models show that a "resource multiplication mechanism" tends to prevail among these couples. Specifically, homogamous highly educated couples tend to have the highest survival advantage, low-educated couples have the greatest mortality risk, and heterogamous couples fall in between. One exception is women born in 1932-1950, who present a "resource substitution mechanism." Women in couples in which one of the partners has a low level of education have similar survival probabilities to those in highly educated couples, meaning that men's education could fully compensate for women's lack of education. However, among women born between 1951 and 1970, these differences grow to resemble those observed in men, although they remain less pronounced. Furthermore, mortality has risen over time among low-educated couples, particularly cohabiters, while highly educated married couples have experienced significant mortality declines. Overall, cohabiters and low-educated men partnered with low-educated women emerge as the most vulnerable groups.

The US experiences significant excess mortality compared to peer countries. The literature indicates that a similar disadvantage affects morbidity and, more generally, the prevalence of risk factors for major diseases within the US population. In this study, we assess the impact of multi-morbidity at death on the mortality gap between the US and three other high-income countries with comparable data, namely France, Italy, and Spain. The study relies on an analysis of the multiple cause-of-death information available on all death certificates for 2017, used to classify morbid processes leading to death into three categories: simple, multi-morbid, and ill-defined. The results show disproportionately high rates of multi-morbid processes in the US compared with the other three countries. Multi-morbid processes contribute 51% of the US gap in life expectancy at birth with Italy, 73% with Spain, and 75% with France, with a particular concentration at ages 20-85 years. The prevalence of multi-morbid processes in the US is consistent with the hypothesis that multiple factors, rather than a single culprit, are at play in the disadvantage in mortality and it could explain, at least in part, the extraordinarily high cost of health care in this country.

Rising rates of "silver splits" in Europe resemble increases in gray divorce in the U.S. Partnership dissolutions may harm older adults' mental health, especially for 'disconnected' parents who do not receive support from their children. However, researchers have relied primarily on multilevel modeling, neglecting unobserved characteristics that may select an individual into both divorce and parent-child disconnectedness. This brief report addresses this research gap by estimating fixed-effects linear regression models that control for time-invariant confounders. We used data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE; 2004-2022, N = 2216 observations, 546 silver splits) to document changes in depressive symptoms pre- and post-dissolution and evaluate whether these patterns are moderated by parent-child disconnectedness. Consistent with previous research, we find that depressive symptoms increase steeply in the year of dissolution and remain high four years post-dissolution for parents who are disconnected from their adult child(ren). However, individuals who maintain a relationship with all their child(ren) show stable levels of depressive symptoms throughout the dissolution process, challenging the assumption that dissolution is uniformly distressing. Our results reveal that depressive symptoms trajectories during the period preceding and following a major life event differ across sociorelational contexts. Social programs and supports for divorced older adults should recognize this heterogeneity rather than assuming uniformly negative mental health outcomes.

This study investigates the link between childbearing and employment changes of female immigrants and their descendants in three European countries: the UK, France, and Germany. Although childbearing significantly influences female labour force participation, the interrelationship between fertility and employment changes among migrant populations is poorly understood. We use event history models to study employment entry and exit by migration background and parity. Mothers are less likely to enter and more likely to exit employment than childless women among native women, immigrants, and their descendants. The largest differences in employment entry and exit are observed between migrant origin groups and generations, and between destination countries. European and Western immigrants are more likely to (re-)enter and less likely to exit employment than those from non-European countries. The descendants of immigrants have higher employment levels than immigrants and the differences compared to natives are smaller, but they persist, particularly among those of non-European descent. We also observe some differences across countries: mothers are the most likely to exit employment in Germany and the least likely in France. Our study highlights the importance of work-family reconciliation and immigration policies for reducing labour market disadvantage among mothers overall and particularly among immigrants and their descendants.

Living together marks an important step in the progression of intimate partner relationships. While existing literature highlights the relevance of both partners' economic characteristics for union formation, it remains unclear whether both partners' economic characteristics are equally linked to the transition to co-residence, whether one partner's traits matter more, and how this varies by gender. We address these gaps by examining how the economic characteristics of women and men in non-residential relationships relate to their transition to co-residence. Using 13 waves (2008-2021) of the German Family Panel pairfam and Cox proportional hazards model, we analyse 7165 non-residential relationships, capturing dyadic data on partners' employment status, contract type, and income. Our findings show that economic factors significantly influence the likelihood of moving in together. Couples with two employed partners are most likely to move in together, while gender plays a role when only one partner works-this transition being more likely when the man is employed. Among employed individuals, higher income increases the probability of moving in together for both men and women. Additionally, temporary employment raises the likelihood of starting a co-residence exclusively for women. Overall, results suggest that men's employment status plays a pivotal role in this transition and that union formation is socially stratified among young adults, reinforcing gender inequalities in partnership dynamics.

The discrepancies between desired and actual fertility rates are one of the key topics in fertility studies. This paper aims to explore the fertility gap-the difference between desired fertility size and actual fertility outcomes, and how this gap can be decomposed according to the importance of various perceived barriers to fertility. This article introduces an innovative approach to quantify the impact of removing obstacles that individuals report prevent them from having a child (or another child) on the total fertility rate ( $\text{TFR}$ ). On the one hand, this method offers an alternative perspective on the relationship between the desired number of children and observed fertility outcomes. Unlike conventional analyses that begin with the differences between desired and actual fertility levels, this approach considers that the sum of the fertility gap-defined by the reported reasons that hinder individuals from having children-and the observed fertility level represents the obstacle-removed $\text{TFR}$ . On the other hand, this method provides a cause-deleted analysis for fertility, addressing a gap in formal demographic analysis which has historically focussed on mortality research. Although this approach introduces some assumptions, the results offer insights into the relative importance of reported obstacles to fertility.

Personality has increasingly become relevant for family formation processes. However, the association between personality and family formation (dissolution) has been underexplored in demographic research. This study contributes to existing research by examining the prospective association between two personality factors [social maturity (SM), and emotional stability (ES)] and family formation and dissolution processes, i.e., (1) marital status, (2) fertility, and (3) partnership dissolution as both (a) divorce and (b) cohabitation dissolution, based on large Swedish register data. Poisson regression, Linear Probability, and Cox proportional hazard models were applied for different outcomes. Findings suggest that males with high scores on SM and ES measured at age of assignment to military service (17-20 years) are more likely to get married by age 39 and above. Regarding fertility, SM and ES show positive associations with offspring counts and negative associations with the probability of remaining childless by age 39 and above. Relationship dissolution is negatively linked with SM and ES, in particular among the lowest personality scores. Further analyses using sibling comparisons support these findings.