European Journal of Population-Revue Europeenne De Demographie最新文献

The fertility rates of Kazakhstan have reversed to levels not seen for several decades. The striking fertility increase poses questions regarding the extent to which this new development is shared across socio-demographic groups and the nature of fertility recuperation. The current study employs UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data and event-history modelling to analyse parity progressions to one, two, three, and four children. The results suggest a sustained fertility increase that is not merely associated with the recuperation of delayed first births, but a genuine increase across all birth orders. This pattern is evident for both main ethnicities in Kazakhstan and across educational groups. The gradual increase of higher-order births, especially among ethnic Kazakhs, indicates a reversed fertility transition and also that the previous fertility decline in the 1990s was not part of a general transition towards below-replacement fertility but rather a reflection of economic crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Previous studies have documented varying fertility responses to changes in parental leave provisions. We contribute to this literature by investigating the effects on the transition to second and third births of a policy reform that introduced generous earnings-dependent parental leave benefit in Estonia in 2004. Our study employs a mixture cure model, a model with some useful properties that has been seldom applied in fertility research. The advantage of the cure model over conventional event history models is the ability to distinguish the effect of the covariates on the propensity to have a next child from their effect on the tempo of childbearing. The results show that the transition to next birth accelerated as parents responded to so-called speed premium, a feature that allowed them to avoid a reduction in benefits caused by a reduction of earned income between births, through the closer spacing of births. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the introduction of generous earning-related parental leave was associated with a substantial increase in the progression to both second and third births.

A lot is known about the association between marital status and mortality, and some of these studies have included data on cohabitation. Studies on the association with health problems, rather than mortality, are often based on self-reported health outcomes, and results from these studies are mixed. As cohabitation is now widespread, more studies that include data on cohabitation are needed. We use Norwegian register data that include detailed information about union status and all cases of disability pensioning from 2005 to 2016. We employ Cox regression analysis and a within-family design in order to control for hard to measure childhood characteristics. Compared to the married, the cohabiting have a somewhat higher risk of receiving disability pension due to mental disorders, and for men also due to physical disorders. Receipt of disability pension is most common among the never married, especially for men. The association between union status and disability pensioning is stronger for mental than for physical disorders.

Economic uncertainty and family dynamics are strictly connected. The increasing uncertainty generated by the Covid-19 pandemic is thus likely to affect couple relationships and stability, with potential opposite effects. Using data from the nationally representative EPICOV survey, that followed individuals throughout the first year of pandemic in France, we examined separation rates and how these were associated with different measures of employment and income uncertainty, including both pre-pandemic conditions and changes occurred during and after the first lockdown in Spring 2020 in France. Our results show increased rates of separation, especially among younger people, during the 6 months after the first lockdown, and a return to rates more similar to those observed in usual times, afterwards. Individuals who were unemployed and had lower income before the beginning of the pandemic were more likely to separate soon after the lockdown, while changes in employment conditions due to the lockdown were not linked with a higher separation risk. The job protection and the income compensation provided by the French state, as well a less stigmatising effect of unemployment occurred during the covid crisis, may explain the absence of effect. Self-declared deterioration in financial condition, especially when declared by men, was associated with higher separation risk for the whole year of observation.

The absence of a suitable partner is the most frequently given reason for unmet fertility intentions across European countries while having a partner is positively associated with the intention to have a child. However, once this relationship is framed within a life-course approach, existing evidence is mixed and inconclusive. The norm to have children within a stable relationship and norms regarding the timing of childbirth are acknowledged in many contemporary societies. Therefore, the presence of a partner might have a stronger effect on fertility intentions around the social deadline for fertility, which could explain the mixed findings in previous research. This article analyses how fertility intentions are influenced by partnership status and how this relationship varies by age and across countries. We use data from the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey to analyse a sample of childless men and women aged 18-45 years from 12 European countries. We implement logistic regression models to investigate the influence of having a partner on fertility intentions during the life course. Previous studies found that the positive influence of having a partner either decreases across the life course or does not vary significantly. This study reveals that the positive association between partnership and fertility intentions increases from the age of 18, proving that whether someone is in a partnership becomes more influential at later stages in life. After a certain age threshold, which varies across countries and gender, this positive association either turns insignificant, remains positive, or reverses.

Given population ageing and the emphasis on in-home care, more working-age adults are facing the demands of providing unpaid care to the elderly with potential implications for their own well-being. Such effects likely vary across Europe because care is differently organized with a differing emphasis on public support, dependence on family, and orientation toward gender equality. We studied the relationship between unpaid caregiving for elderly parents and the psychological well-being of older working-age (50-64) men and women by analysing data from the Survey of Health, Retirement, and Ageing in Europe (SHARE), covering 18 countries between 2004 and 2020 (N = 24,338), using ordinary least squares (OLS). We examined risk of depression by caregiving intensity and tested whether coresidence mediated outcomes. Men and women providing care to parents experience important psychological well-being losses across Europe, especially when caregiving is intensive. A heavier caregiving burden associated with coresidence explains a regime gradient in depression, not least for women in Southern Europe. Results highlight the spillover costs of unpaid caregiving across Europe and the need to address caregiver psychological well-being, especially in contexts where state support for elder care is low and coresidence is common.

The establishment of free mobility in Europe has lowered barriers to movement and given rise to diversity in migration and integration patterns. However, in part due to data constraints, it is difficult to study migration motives, integration and return migration together. Using linked Finnish and Swedish register data covering the period 1988-2005, we address these processes within the same framework and study how the reason for migration and trajectories at the destination relate to return migration. In particular, we assess the migration motives of 13,948 Finnish migrants in Sweden using pre- and post-migration information. Finland and Sweden have been part of the common Nordic labour market since 1954, which has allowed Nordic citizens to move without barriers between the two countries. We also study how income trajectories and trajectories of family formation differ across the assessed motives, and analyse how return migration risks are shaped by the motive and by trajectories of income and family formation. Results reveal that labour and tied migrants are initially more likely to have family abroad than student migrants. Student migrants instead continue their education and experience a steeper income increase. The income of student migrants eventually catches up and surpasses that of labour migrants. Return migration risks are shaped by trajectories at the destination, but also by the initial migration motive. These findings underline the importance of assessing diversity across migrants to gain a better understanding of how different migrant groups fare in the destination country and how this relates to subsequent moves.

The internal migration literature has identified various factors that deter migration and encourage staying, but has been less concerned with people's own reports about what makes it difficult for them to migrate or makes them want to stay. We explore factors that make it difficult to change the place of residence-from here on denoted as constraints-reported in the Spanish survey on Attitudes and Expectations of Spatial Mobility in the Labour Force (N = 3892). These constraints were uniquely asked from all respondents through an open-ended question, regardless of their migration intentions. We find that many self-reported constraints correspond to factors that have previously been associated with decreased migration propensities. In order of frequency, respondents reported ties to family and friends, ties to their residential environment, financial limitations, and ties to work as constraints to migration. Our results further show that the likelihood of mentioning ties to family and friends as constraints decreased with age, was higher for women than for men and for people who lived close to most of their social network than for those who did not. Mentioning ties to the residential environment as constraints was positively associated with being partnered, and also with living in one's birthplace. People who were unemployed were less likely to mention ties to work and were more likely to report financial limitations as constraints than people who had a permanent contract-whereas being self-employed was positively associated with mentioning ties to the residential environment.

Theoretically, whether a more loosely regulated labour market inhibits or fosters fertility in a society is ambiguous. Empirically, the few studies analysing the relationship between the strictness of employment protection legislation-the norms and procedures regulating labour markets' hiring and firing processes-and fertility have found mixed evidence. This paper reconciles the ambivalent conclusions of previous studies by analysing the impact of employment protection legislation and labour market dualism on total fertility across 19 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Our results indicate that an increase in employment protection for regular workers positively affects total fertility. Nonetheless, an increasing gap between the regulation of regular and temporary employment-that is, labour market dualism-negatively impacts total fertility. These effects, of small-to-moderate intensity, are relatively homogeneous across age groups and geographical areas and are especially pronounced among the lower educated. We conclude that labour market dualism, rather than a "rigid" employment protection legislation, discourages fertility.

This study evaluates the impact of introducing the Maternity Capital (MC) program-a child subsidy of 250,000 Rub (7,150 euros or 10,000 USD, in 2007)-provided to mothers giving birth to/adopting a second or subsequent child since January 2007. Eligible Russian families could use this subsidy to improve family housing conditions, fund child's education/childcare, or invest in the mother's retirement fund. This study evaluates the impact of MC eligibility on various child health and developmental outcomes, household consumption patterns, and housing quality. Using data from the representative Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey 2010-2017, I tested regression discontinuity models and found that MC eligibility may have led to a small improvement in child health status, which could be explained by improved housing conditions, particularly in rural areas. However, children living in MC-eligible families were also more likely to report reduced socialisation. Heterogeneity analysis by child gender, household poverty status, and urban/rural residence suggests that MC incentives may have had a differential impact on some analysed outcomes. Results are robust to different polynomial and nonparametric RDD specifications.