European Journal of Population-Revue Europeenne De Demographie最新文献

We analysed the associations between mental disorders and women's and men's first-, second- and third-birth rates in 2010-2018, using register data for the full Norwegian population. Having had at least one consultation for depression in primary or specialised health care in the calendar year before the preceding year was associated with lower birth rates. According to a simulation, the birth-rate reduction corresponds to a reduction in completed fertility from 1.60 births per woman among those without any of the mental disorders under study, to 1.34 among those with depression throughout the reproductive period. The corresponding numbers for men were 1.41 and 0.90. The associations between anxiety and fertility were of similar magnitude, while fertility was even lower among individuals with bipolar disorder, eating disorder or personality disorder. The simulated completed fertility was lowest among women and men with schizophrenia (0.36 and 0.16, respectively). However, to the extent that individuals with these mental disorders enter parenthood, many of the estimates suggested that they do so at a relatively early age. The associations between mental disorders and fertility became weaker when partnership, education and income were controlled for, and when characteristics shared by siblings were taken into account in family fixed-effects models.

In this study, we assess the impact of intermarriage on employment outcomes among immigrant women, compared with endogamous (immigrant women married to immigrants). We measure employment outcomes using three variables: a binary outcome (employed or not), a continuous outcome (average weekly hours of work), and a proxy for underemployment. The linear probability model reveals that intermarried immigrant women are nearly 8 percentage points less likely to be employed than their endogamous counterparts. With regard to the intensity of employment, there are no significant differences for women in both marriage types in their probability of being underemployed or in the hours worked.

Existing research has demonstrated that wealthier individuals differ in family formation. Potential explanations draw on wealth's use and symbolic value as well as the relative economic bar of family formation. This study examines the relationship between wealth and three family formation events in Germany: first cohabitation, marriage, and birth. Data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (2002-2017) are used with multi-state, competing-risk, discrete-time event history analysis. Results show that wealth, primarily driven by homeownership, significantly influences cohabitation, marriage, and birth. The impact of homeownership is particularly notable for marriage and birth and shows gender-specific associations for cohabitants. The findings highlight the substantial influence of wealth-most likely through its symbolic and use value-in shaping family formation while indicating limited support for a relative economic bar in Germany.

Attitudes toward immigration are usually investigated from the non-migrant residents' perspective. Much less is known about how perceptions of immigration policy and immigrants vary across immigration background lines, especially in the wider European context, and whether migrants' attitudes toward immigration are affected by the same factors and in the same way as those of the non-migrant population. With still-growing populations of migrants and their descendants in Europe, it is, however, crucial to study interethnic relations not only between migrant and non-migrant populations but also among different immigrant groups. Firstly, we investigate whether immigration attitudes among European migrants are based on intergroup solidarity or, rather, an intergroup threat toward new immigrants and whether minority-specific characteristics have differential effects across the (non-)migrant populations. We uncover that first- and second-generation immigrants' attitudes toward immigration are mostly guided by intergroup solidarity with other immigrants. Our results also show that first-generation immigrants' attitudes become more negative the longer they stay in the host country. Finally, we demonstrate that minority-specific characteristics work differently across our three subsamples and across different destination countries. Our analysis is based on nine rounds of the European Social Survey from 20 European countries and by estimating multilevel regression models of individual factors affecting (non-)migrants' attitudes. The findings contribute to our broader understanding of social cohesion, social inclusion and intergroup conflict.

Previous research has pointed to educational expansions and increased educational attainment among women as an important factor contributing to reductions in fertility levels and changes in family formation patterns in the second half of the twentieth century. We investigate one potential mechanism that may have contributed to these developments-the establishment of local colleges providing access to higher education for broader segments of the population. We study the establishment of regional colleges in Norway 1973-83. Taking advantage of population-wide administrative register data, historical data sources and recent developments in difference-in-differences methodology, we employ an event study design to assess the impact of local colleges on cohort fertility and age-specific fertility outcomes, as well as age at marriage and regional mobility as potential mechanisms. Our findings suggest that access to local colleges did not impact fertility, family formation or mobility to any substantial degree.

Couple relations are a key determinant of mental and physical well-being in old age. However, we do not know how the advantages and disadvantages associated with partnership histories vary between socioeconomic groups. We create relationship history typologies for the cohorts 1945-1957 using the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe and examine, for the first time, how relationship histories relate to multiple indicators of well-being by educational attainment. The results show that stable marriages predict greater well-being, compared to single and less stable partnership histories. The positive outcomes are similar across all educational groups. Those with lower education who have divorced experience even lower well-being in old age. The interaction analyses suggest that individuals with fewer resources could suffer more from losing a partner. The findings underscore that current and past romantic relationships are linked to well-being in old age and help policymakers identify vulnerable subgroups among the ageing population.

In this article, we extend the multiregional cohort-component population projection model developed by Andrei Rogers and colleagues in the 1960s and 1970s to be fully probabilistic. The projections are based on forecasts of age-, sex- and region-specific fertility, mortality, interregional migration, immigration and emigration. The approach is unified by forecasting each demographic component of change by using a combination of log-linear models with bilinear terms. This research contributes to the literature by providing a flexible statistical modelling framework capable of incorporating the high dimensionality of the demographic components over time. The models also account for correlations across age, sex, regions and time. The result is a consistent and robust modelling platform for forecasting subnational populations with measures of uncertainty. We apply the model to forecast population for eight states and territories in Australia.

Population decline is now established at the continental scale in Europe, occurring in abundance across sub-national areas and outweighing population growth. This represents an unfamiliar pathway of demographic change and is set to present unique challenges to the functioning of societies and economies. The nature of these challenges will be influenced by the demographic cause of population decline. Typically, low fertility is cited as the primary instigator, though it remains unclear of the ways in which unique interactions between fertility, mortality and migration have shaped contemporary population decline outcomes. This study empirically analyses the demographic causes of population decline in 732 sub-national areas extending across 33 European countries. Drawing on data derived from national statistics from 2000-2018, we employ a novel methodological approach consisting of decomposition, multivariate functional principal component analysis, and k-medoid clustering to identify the dominant demographic processes underpinning European depopulation. Our analysis reveals five unique signatures, encoding nuanced contributions from fertility, mortality and migration changes. Population decline is found to be a multi-causal process, with natural deficits and negative rates of net-migration both operating depopulations in most instances. We conclude that natural deficits are ubiquitous in causing sub-national population declines with net-migration patterns responsible for determining annual rates of population loss. We model the relationship between these signatures and wider demographic, socio-economic and geo-spatial attributes, finding that a distinct combination of contextual factors are associated with different demographic causes of population decline.

The study analyses how a two-year guaranteed income program that provided a significant earnings supplement affected childbearing among previously unemployed women. Results from previous research indicate that cash transfers may increase fertility, for example, by compensating for the additional costs of childbearing and lost earnings opportunities. However, cash transfers may also induce incentives that lead to opposite fertility effects. The study provides new empirical evidence on the effect of cash transfers on childbearing by using register data from the Finnish basic income experiment conducted in 2017-2018. The intervention increased returns from employment relative to unemployment. As a result, it increased cash incentives to employment and other activities, such as studying, that compete with childbearing. The experiment offers a unique opportunity to study the causal effect of these changes on women's childbearing decisions. According to the analysis, the experiment had a negative effect on the probability of having children among women who received basic income and a positive effect among women whose spouses received basic income. The findings suggest that while improvements in economic circumstances likely have a positive effect on childbearing, benefits conditional to working or other competing activities may have the opposite effect, at least in the short term. The findings emphasize the importance of considering the overall changes of income and cash incentives when reforming tax-benefit policies.

Joint physical custody (JPC)-where children alternate between parental households after a separation-has been found to be on a rise in a diversity of European countries. However, variations in sampling, data and operationalization consistently complicate the comparative mapping of JPC prevalence and its correlates. In this respect, the 2021 EU-SILC ad hoc module on Living arrangements and conditions of children in separated and blended families provides a unique opportunity to study JPC prevalence across Europe. The current study aims to validate and expand on existing research by employing the module's second release, concerning children in households across 21 countries. Our descriptive overview of shared versus sole and main residence supports and adds to the previously noted diversity of JPC in Europe. We further note a similar father- to mother-residence ratio in countries with high and low incidence of JPC, warranting consideration of how social and legal norms regulate the granting of custody to mothers versus fathers in various country settings. Subsequently, we analyse the association of child-, parent-/household- and country-level characteristics with JPC using a three-level linear mixed model. The results underline the importance of a multi-level approach to understanding the correlates of JPC and prompt the elaboration of country comparisons using the EU-SILC module.