European Journal of Population-Revue Europeenne De Demographie最新文献

Population decline is now established at the continental scale in Europe, occurring in abundance across sub-national areas and outweighing population growth. This represents an unfamiliar pathway of demographic change and is set to present unique challenges to the functioning of societies and economies. The nature of these challenges will be influenced by the demographic cause of population decline. Typically, low fertility is cited as the primary instigator, though it remains unclear of the ways in which unique interactions between fertility, mortality and migration have shaped contemporary population decline outcomes. This study empirically analyses the demographic causes of population decline in 732 sub-national areas extending across 33 European countries. Drawing on data derived from national statistics from 2000-2018, we employ a novel methodological approach consisting of decomposition, multivariate functional principal component analysis, and k-medoid clustering to identify the dominant demographic processes underpinning European depopulation. Our analysis reveals five unique signatures, encoding nuanced contributions from fertility, mortality and migration changes. Population decline is found to be a multi-causal process, with natural deficits and negative rates of net-migration both operating depopulations in most instances. We conclude that natural deficits are ubiquitous in causing sub-national population declines with net-migration patterns responsible for determining annual rates of population loss. We model the relationship between these signatures and wider demographic, socio-economic and geo-spatial attributes, finding that a distinct combination of contextual factors are associated with different demographic causes of population decline.

The study analyses how a two-year guaranteed income program that provided a significant earnings supplement affected childbearing among previously unemployed women. Results from previous research indicate that cash transfers may increase fertility, for example, by compensating for the additional costs of childbearing and lost earnings opportunities. However, cash transfers may also induce incentives that lead to opposite fertility effects. The study provides new empirical evidence on the effect of cash transfers on childbearing by using register data from the Finnish basic income experiment conducted in 2017-2018. The intervention increased returns from employment relative to unemployment. As a result, it increased cash incentives to employment and other activities, such as studying, that compete with childbearing. The experiment offers a unique opportunity to study the causal effect of these changes on women's childbearing decisions. According to the analysis, the experiment had a negative effect on the probability of having children among women who received basic income and a positive effect among women whose spouses received basic income. The findings suggest that while improvements in economic circumstances likely have a positive effect on childbearing, benefits conditional to working or other competing activities may have the opposite effect, at least in the short term. The findings emphasize the importance of considering the overall changes of income and cash incentives when reforming tax-benefit policies.

Joint physical custody (JPC)-where children alternate between parental households after a separation-has been found to be on a rise in a diversity of European countries. However, variations in sampling, data and operationalization consistently complicate the comparative mapping of JPC prevalence and its correlates. In this respect, the 2021 EU-SILC ad hoc module on Living arrangements and conditions of children in separated and blended families provides a unique opportunity to study JPC prevalence across Europe. The current study aims to validate and expand on existing research by employing the module's second release, concerning children in households across 21 countries. Our descriptive overview of shared versus sole and main residence supports and adds to the previously noted diversity of JPC in Europe. We further note a similar father- to mother-residence ratio in countries with high and low incidence of JPC, warranting consideration of how social and legal norms regulate the granting of custody to mothers versus fathers in various country settings. Subsequently, we analyse the association of child-, parent-/household- and country-level characteristics with JPC using a three-level linear mixed model. The results underline the importance of a multi-level approach to understanding the correlates of JPC and prompt the elaboration of country comparisons using the EU-SILC module.

This paper investigates the size and direction of the interrelationships between two important aspects of integration of refugees in Austria: labour market integration and social integration. Labour market integration is captured in terms of being in paid employment, as compared to being unemployed or inactive, whereas social integration distinguishes between social networks and their ethnic composition and social capital. The analysis uses a unique dataset based on a survey of about 4000 refugees from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran who had come to Austria since 2010. It finds an important causal link between social integration and obtaining paid employment and shows that social network effects with Austrians are particularly significant for labour market integration. This has important implications as factors that affect refugees' social integration with Austrians also have an impact through this channel on their employment prospects. The analysis also finds that social networks with Austrians and co-ethnic social networks are complementary. This is significant, as it indicates that-in the case of this group of refugees which are often in the early phases of integration with the host society-the linkages with the co-ethnic community do not hinder social integration with individuals (predominantly Austrians) outside that community but develop in parallel.

The association between parental separation and children's education has been widely studied, but mainly at a single time point and for marital dissolution only. We examine whether the (generally negative) association has changed across cohorts for several educational outcomes and whether the association differs by parental union type (marriage, cohabitation) and socioeconomic family background (parental education).We use Finnish total population register data. We focus on child cohorts born between 1987 and 2003 (N = 967,242) and analyse grade point averages, secondary education and tertiary education using linear regression and linear probability models with standard errors clustered within families.The association between parental separation and educational achievement is negative and has remained similar across the birth cohorts. Differences according to parental union type and socioeconomic family background are rather small. The stability of the association over time suggests that the consequences of parental separation on children's education have not changed over time, and they do not depend much on parental union type or family background.

Preferences for homogamous partnerships, not only in terms of having a partner with the same ethnicity, but one with the same religion, are an important factor in explaining low levels of interethnic partnerships in Western countries. However, previous research has rarely explicitly focused on the role of preferences for partnership formation patterns. Using data from a factorial survey experiment, which was implemented in the 9th wave of the "Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Survey in Four European Countries" among young adults in Germany (CILS4EU-DE), this study explores patterns of religious homophily in partnership preferences among young adults in Germany. It thereby specifically focuses on individuals belonging to two major religious groups: Christians and Muslims. It investigates the effects of religious denomination, religiosity, type of intimate partnership, and gender differences for religious homophily in partnership preferences. Both male and female respondents were found to prefer partners of the same religious denomination, with this effect being stronger among Muslims than Christians. Muslim respondents showed no or little disapproval of more strongly religious partners, whereas Christian respondents showed strong disapproval of more religious partners. Among Christian and male Muslim but not among female Muslim respondents, preferences for religious homophily were lower for casual partnerships than for marriage. Overall, the findings suggest that religious homophily and religion play an important part in shaping partnership choices among young Christian and Muslim adults in Germany.

Childbirth has consequences for mothers' labour market outcomes which in turn has consequences for gender differences in pay. In the Finnish context, earnings-related parental leave can be extended with home care allowance which enables mothers to choose their childcare leave length with varying benefit levels. We empirically test the importance of choice of childcare leave length for the subsequent child penalty. We apply Finnish register data with information on the length of childcare leave at the individual and workplace levels. By using workplace comparisons, we can account for some of the endogeneity in choices of workplace, parity, and childcare leave length. By instrumenting the leave length with varying home care allowance levels, we categorise always-takers, never-takers, and compliers. We find that the child penalty is heterogeneous and highly related to the choice of leave length. Always-takers use longer leaves than the workplace average and are penalised, while never-takers use shorter leaves than the workplace average and experience only a mild child penalty. Compliers adjust their leave lengths to the allowance level and experience child penalties in between. These results support that self-selection of childcare leave length has implications for post-birth outcomes and in addition, that family policy can affect the child penalty and the gender gap in pay.

Research has shown that married individuals live longer lives than unmarried women and men. A smaller number of studies have included non-marital cohabitation and have found that their mortality falls between the married and other unmarried groups. There are indications that the cohabiting population is diverse in terms of mortality risk, yet very little is known about how the association is related to age and stages of the life course. Sweden is a forerunner in family trends, and this is the first study that examines cohabitation and mortality in a Swedish context. Using Swedish register data for the years 2012-2017, we investigated how different partnership statuses are related to mortality for men and women at different ages (N = 5,572,011). We also examine whether the association between cohabitation and mortality is similar after accounting for family-of-origin effects through the use of a sibling comparison design. Our findings confirmed the notion of cohabiters as a diverse group whose relative mortality risk differs depending on the timing of cohabitation. Never-married cohabiters had a mortality risk similar to married couples at younger ages and a gradually increased risk with age. Divorced and widowed cohabiters exhibited an age gradient in the opposite direction. Future research should consider how the context of cohabitation changes across the life course.

In 2021, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Total Fertility Rate in Iceland rose unexpectedly from 1.79 to 1.90. The increased number of births followed an important reform in the Icelandic paid parental leave scheme, which included an expansion of the leave from 10 to 12 months. Analysis of data from Statistics Iceland and focus group interviews with parents who had a child in 2021 were used to explore if and how the parental leave reform and the societal changes related to the pandemic-shaped parents' decision to have a child in 2021. As the rise in fertility was short-lived, the results indicate that the baby boom of 2021 can hardly be explained by the parental leave reform. Rather, at least for educated women, who already had children and were in a good financial state, it seems that the pandemic created a favourable atmosphere for having a child. Parents' narratives from the focus group interviews suggest that the pandemic might have been a good time to start or add to the family because of the increased time spent at home and the limited involvement in social activities outside the home.