European Journal of Population-Revue Europeenne De Demographie最新文献

Over the last 15 years, many European countries have experienced fertility declines. Existing research on this shift in fertility behavior points to economic aspects and increased levels of uncertainty as important drivers. However, in this debate little attention has been paid to how the relevance of individual- and contextual-level dimensions for understanding the new fertility patterns varies by level of urbanization. This is surprising given that urban and rural areas not only differ strongly in fertility timing and levels, but also in economic conditions. Our paper fills this important research gap by analyzing rich register data from Finland using multi-level event history models to study the transition to first birth among younger (under age 30) and older (ages 30 or older) women. We show that urban-rural differences in the transition to parenthood are particularly pronounced among younger women. In addition, the results indicate that economic circumstances and related uncertainties are more relevant for understanding first births probabilities for younger women than older women. Finally, among younger women, the relevance of economic circumstances and related uncertainties seems to be most relevant in the capital region of Helsinki and urban areas compared to semiurban and rural areas. Our findings underline that the urban-rural dimension should receive more attention in research on fertility in times of uncertainty.

A growing body of research shows that demographic attitudes and behaviors across the life course are socially stratified. Building on this and focusing on the transition to parenthood, we hypothesize that (i) parental socioeconomic status is associated with multiple dimensions of the transition to parenthood, including fertility norms (perceived lower age limit at first birth), ideals (ideal age at first birth), and behaviors (age at first birth), and that (ii) this association varies across national contexts, as national contexts determine the opportunities and constraints that guide young adults' life course attitudes and behaviors. Drawing on the European Social Survey 2006 and 2018 data, we analyze early fertility norms and ideals and later fertility behaviors of a pseudo-panel of individuals born between 1976 and 1988. We show that (i) parental socioeconomic status is positively associated with later fertility norms, later fertility ideals, and later childbearing, even when controlling for respondents' own socioeconomic status, and that (ii) national contexts partially moderate these associations. We conclude by discussing implications for theories of fertility and highlighting avenues for future research.

Previous research has highlighted the positive impact of parents on their adult children's fertility plans through childcare, but the association between parental health and fertility expectations remains unclear. Thus, this paper offers a novel perspective on the issue of family support by investigating how caregiving responsibilities toward elderly parents affect adult children's decision to have a child. Using a long panel dataset for Australia, we examine whether adult children changed their fertility expectations after becoming care providers to their parents. To address issues of unobserved heterogeneity and selection into parenthood and caregiving, we employ generalized difference-in-differences models. Results show a 7% decrease in fertility expectations within two years of becoming a parental caregiver, with a stronger effect over time, consistent across genders and more pronounced for respondents with one child. These findings suggest that interventions aimed at reducing the caregiver burden could provide an opportunity to positively influence fertility levels.

Research on the children of immigrants born in the host country (G2) consistently reveals disparities between their educational achievements and labour market outcomes compared to the majority population. This study provides new insights into understanding this disparity by examining patterns of overqualification-i.e., a downward educational mismatch-among the G2. Specifically, it explores 1) how overqualification patterns differ between the G2, foreign-born immigrants (G1), and the majority population and 2) how overqualification patterns vary across ten G2 ancestry groups compared to the majority population. Utilizing Swedish total population register data and linear probability models, this study estimates the probability of overqualification across different immigrant generations and ancestry groups, employing the Realised Matches method to measure overqualification. The results indicate that while G2 individuals have a lower probability of experiencing overqualification compared to G1, they face moderately higher probabilities of overqualification than the majority population-up to 19% higher. This disparity is particularly pronounced among G2 individuals with tertiary education and those of Iranian, Middle Eastern and North African, and Other Non-Western origins, with up to 39% higher probabilities. These findings suggest that G2 individuals, particularly those of non-Western origins, encounter significant challenges in translating their educational qualifications into commensurate employment within the Swedish labour market.

This study examines how young, unmarried, working people's fertility intention is shaped by future scenarios where flexible working arrangements (FWAs) are the default. The unmarried population remains to be an under-studied part of the working population at reproductive ages, who nevertheless becomes increasingly significant for fertility research due to rising ages at marriage and the first birth. Despite significant public anticipation regarding the potential of FWAs to facilitate work-family balance and fertility, there is little research on the effects of FWAs on fertility intentions. We conduct a population-based vignette survey experiment to identify the causal effects of FWAs by randomly manipulating three scenarios of FWAs policy changes-reducing hours, increasing work-schedule flexibility, and increasing workplace flexibility-in Singapore, where both overwork norm and low fertility co-exist. All three types of FWAs improve fertility intentions. The effects are especially substantial for women, for which anticipated work-family conflict is an important mediator. Moreover, FWAs matter particularly to those in professional and managerial occupations. These findings call for policies facilitating a more family-friendly environment to tackle low fertility in the future of work.

In 1977, Michael Lipton introduced the Urban Bias Thesis as a framework for understanding how most economic policy initiatives have contributed to the overdevelopment of urban areas and the underdevelopment of rural areas. In Latin America, there has historically been a positive correlation between urbanization and mortality decline, as the region's health transition generally began in the main cities and tended to proceed more rapidly in countries with higher levels of urbanization. This paper seeks evidence of a residual urban bias in the region's mortality patterns. Using a sample of Latin American countries over the 2000-2010 period, I analyse the disparities in mortality patterns and avoidable causes of death by looking closely at urban and rural areas using continuum categories. The results indicate that the urban advantage does persist and that rural-urban mortality differentials have consistently favoured the largest cities. The metropolitan advantage in mortality is an outcome of lower mortality in causes of death that are avoidable through primary interventions. Even in scenarios of high mortality at younger adult ages (15-44), the metropolitan advantage remains, due primarily to unsuccessful efforts to reduce mortality in populations aged 45 years and over outside the main and large cities.

In this paper, we use data from the 'Families and Social Subjects' survey conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics in 2016 to study the impact of micro- and macro-level economic conditions on first co-residential union formation. We aim to determine if and to what extent the probability of forming the first union is explained by individual labour market positions (e.g. having non-standard employment or not having work), and additionally explore if adverse macroeconomic conditions also play a role. We differentiate by union type-marriage and cohabitation-known to be characterised by different levels of union commitment. We also address potential gender differences by conducting separate analyses on men and women. Our results suggest that while micro- and macro-level economic factors matter in the union formation process, their effect varies by gender and union type. Individual economic vulnerability has a greater impact on marriage than on cohabitation for both men and women. Instead, contextual economic uncertainty plays a relevant role, especially in the transition to cohabitation, regardless of gender, and, to a lesser extent, in the transition to marriage, but only for women.

The limited existing literature studying the effects of childhood residential mobility suggests that it influences a range of life outcomes, at least in young adulthood. Little is known about how the frequency of moving in childhood is related to later-life demographic behaviour in Europe. Drawing on residential and partnership histories from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), this paper examines whether moving in childhood relates to union dissolution in adulthood. It empirically addresses two theoretical explanations underlying the potential association: First, according to the confounding hypothesis, effects of childhood residential mobility differ by family background and resources. Second, the family stress model suggests that the accumulated stress and conflicts associated with frequent residential mobility disrupt the family and child's social ties, resulting in worse relationship skills in later life (mediation hypothesis). Applying discrete-time event history analysis to individuals born between 1945 and 1965 in Sweden, Denmark, and Finland, we find a significant association between childhood moves (prior to age 17) and adult union dissolution. The effect's strength varies based on the number of childhood moves, demonstrating a clear gradient. Notably, adults with three or more childhood moves exhibit a 55% higher likelihood of union dissolution compared to non-movers. These associations persist even after accounting for childhood background factors, while family stress mediates the link partially. Our findings shed light on the role of spatial mobility in shaping demographic outcomes and underscore its potential contribution to the accumulation and reproduction of life disadvantages.

Union dissolution has severe consequences for women's economic well-being. Theoretical work links these consequences to ethnic inequality. Ethnic groups vary in terms of separation rates, female employment, repartnering trajectories, kin support, and reliance on welfare benefits. The current study examines whether ethnicity moderates the dissolution penalty. To do so, the authors draw on register data, covering women from five major ethnic groups in the Netherlands: Dutch, Antillean, Surinamese, Moroccan, and Turkish. The authors describe women's income trajectories from 1 year before to 5 years after union dissolution. Using decomposition techniques, changes in household income are decomposed into changes in six underlying income sources (i.e., earnings, benefits, alimony, partner income, and coresident family income). The results show that ethnicity moderates the dissolution penalty and, especially, the contribution of the various income sources when recovering from dissolution.

While uncertainty has been a key explanation for very low fertility throughout Europe, few studies have analysed how macro-level uncertainty trickles down to shape how people think about having children. Most research focuses on economic uncertainty, not political or social uncertainty. We address these gaps with qualitative data from Ukraine, which has experienced extreme political uncertainty and, for the past decade, armed conflict. Ukraine also had exceptionally low fertility, with an estimated total fertility rate of 1.17 in 2021. In July 2021, we conducted 16 online focus groups on topics related to childbearing with informants living in urban and rural areas in Eastern Ukraine, including areas of Donetsk province that were outside Ukrainian government control. Half the groups consisted of persons displaced by the 2014 Donbas war. The discussions revealed distinct patterns whereby experiences of displacement, the simmering armed conflict, and economic problems combined to produce and intensify uncertainties that discouraged couples from having more than one child. Some blamed the government or delved into conspiracy theories. Armed conflict generates its own forms of uncertainty that interact with persistent economic challenges, dampening fertility.