European Journal of Population-Revue Europeenne De Demographie最新文献

Whether couples agree on having a(nother) child is crucial for both individuals and society. While fertility research has long focused on women, recent studies emphasize the need to incorporate both partners' perspectives. However, analyses that jointly consider men's and women's fertility intentions remain scarce. This focus on women has been partly driven by homogamy-the tendency for individuals to select partners with similar traits and values. Given that couples with mixed backgrounds have higher dissolution rates, they may also be less likely to share family-related beliefs. This study examines how agreement on fertility intentions varies among mixed and homogamous couples in Sweden. Using the 2021 Swedish Generation and Gender Survey (GGS) and stratifying by respondents' gender, we find that most couples agree not to have a(nother) child, reflecting recent fertility declines. Couples where both partners are migrants exhibit the highest agreement, while mixed couples show the most disagreement and the strongest gender asymmetries in reported intentions. However, these differences are small and vary by the gender of the reporting partner. The higher disagreement among mixed couples aligns with broader research on their elevated dissolution risks. However, reverse causality is possible-value differences may be linked to other stressors, making childbearing less desirable. By highlighting the role of couple composition in fertility decision-making, our findings contribute to understanding how family formation dynamics vary across different couple types.

The negative impact of childhood internal migration on diverse life outcomes is well documented. The main hypothesis to explain this association is the severance of social ties. However, empirical evidence on the link between internal migration and loneliness in childhood is critically lacking. We address this gap by establishing the association between childhood loneliness and inter and intra-regional migration in Europe. Using retrospective life-history data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe in 26 countries, we run a series of country-fixed effect logistic regression for cohorts born before 1967. We find that the probability of often being lonely is 25-39 per cent higher among children who moved at least once, although having siblings exert a strong protective effect. The strength of the association between loneliness and internal migration dissipates with duration of residence, suggesting that children progressively adjust to new surroundings, particularly if they migrated before starting school. However, the mitigating role of duration of residence diminishes with the number of past moves. Despite the limitations of retrospective survey data, our results show a clear association between internal migration and loneliness, highlight the increased risks of chronic migration among children and lend support to the loss-of-social-networks theory, particularly in individualist societies where friendship plays a greater role in social networks and where children consistently report higher levels of loneliness.

Many affluent societies saw a temporary increase in their fertility rates in 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic. This included a number of countries that had experienced fertility decline during the 2010s, like the Nordic. In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic (2022-2023), fertility rates resumed their previous downward trend. Most research on the pandemic-related fertility trends has relied on aggregate data. Although a few studies have examined group-specific trends, hardly any have covered the post-pandemic years-an important step for revealing whether any uptick in 2021 had a lasting impact on fertility structures. Our study attends to this objective, with a focus on parity and group-specific fertility trends in Sweden before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. We apply event-history techniques to Swedish register data to unveil annual trends of birth risks in 2010-2022, for all Swedish-born women of childbearing age. First- and second-birth risks in 2015-2022 are analysed further across socio-demographic factors. Our study reveals that the "pandemic pattern" of fertility increase in 2021 and drop in 2022 was visible among subgroups with better possibilities to prepone already intended births. For example, the fertility increase and subsequent drop was particularly evident for mothers with young children and women with higher education and incomes. The pandemic fertility pattern reflects temporary changes in the timing of childbearing, more specifically a preponement of births that occurred in 2021 with resulting shortfall in 2022. The continued fall in fertility rates in 2023 should be viewed in the light of the long-term fertility decline.

We analysed the associations between mental disorders and women's and men's first-, second- and third-birth rates in 2010-2018, using register data for the full Norwegian population. Having had at least one consultation for depression in primary or specialised health care in the calendar year before the preceding year was associated with lower birth rates. According to a simulation, the birth-rate reduction corresponds to a reduction in completed fertility from 1.60 births per woman among those without any of the mental disorders under study, to 1.34 among those with depression throughout the reproductive period. The corresponding numbers for men were 1.41 and 0.90. The associations between anxiety and fertility were of similar magnitude, while fertility was even lower among individuals with bipolar disorder, eating disorder or personality disorder. The simulated completed fertility was lowest among women and men with schizophrenia (0.36 and 0.16, respectively). However, to the extent that individuals with these mental disorders enter parenthood, many of the estimates suggested that they do so at a relatively early age. The associations between mental disorders and fertility became weaker when partnership, education and income were controlled for, and when characteristics shared by siblings were taken into account in family fixed-effects models.

In this study, we assess the impact of intermarriage on employment outcomes among immigrant women, compared with endogamous (immigrant women married to immigrants). We measure employment outcomes using three variables: a binary outcome (employed or not), a continuous outcome (average weekly hours of work), and a proxy for underemployment. The linear probability model reveals that intermarried immigrant women are nearly 8 percentage points less likely to be employed than their endogamous counterparts. With regard to the intensity of employment, there are no significant differences for women in both marriage types in their probability of being underemployed or in the hours worked.

Existing research has demonstrated that wealthier individuals differ in family formation. Potential explanations draw on wealth's use and symbolic value as well as the relative economic bar of family formation. This study examines the relationship between wealth and three family formation events in Germany: first cohabitation, marriage, and birth. Data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (2002-2017) are used with multi-state, competing-risk, discrete-time event history analysis. Results show that wealth, primarily driven by homeownership, significantly influences cohabitation, marriage, and birth. The impact of homeownership is particularly notable for marriage and birth and shows gender-specific associations for cohabitants. The findings highlight the substantial influence of wealth-most likely through its symbolic and use value-in shaping family formation while indicating limited support for a relative economic bar in Germany.

Attitudes toward immigration are usually investigated from the non-migrant residents' perspective. Much less is known about how perceptions of immigration policy and immigrants vary across immigration background lines, especially in the wider European context, and whether migrants' attitudes toward immigration are affected by the same factors and in the same way as those of the non-migrant population. With still-growing populations of migrants and their descendants in Europe, it is, however, crucial to study interethnic relations not only between migrant and non-migrant populations but also among different immigrant groups. Firstly, we investigate whether immigration attitudes among European migrants are based on intergroup solidarity or, rather, an intergroup threat toward new immigrants and whether minority-specific characteristics have differential effects across the (non-)migrant populations. We uncover that first- and second-generation immigrants' attitudes toward immigration are mostly guided by intergroup solidarity with other immigrants. Our results also show that first-generation immigrants' attitudes become more negative the longer they stay in the host country. Finally, we demonstrate that minority-specific characteristics work differently across our three subsamples and across different destination countries. Our analysis is based on nine rounds of the European Social Survey from 20 European countries and by estimating multilevel regression models of individual factors affecting (non-)migrants' attitudes. The findings contribute to our broader understanding of social cohesion, social inclusion and intergroup conflict.

Previous research has pointed to educational expansions and increased educational attainment among women as an important factor contributing to reductions in fertility levels and changes in family formation patterns in the second half of the twentieth century. We investigate one potential mechanism that may have contributed to these developments-the establishment of local colleges providing access to higher education for broader segments of the population. We study the establishment of regional colleges in Norway 1973-83. Taking advantage of population-wide administrative register data, historical data sources and recent developments in difference-in-differences methodology, we employ an event study design to assess the impact of local colleges on cohort fertility and age-specific fertility outcomes, as well as age at marriage and regional mobility as potential mechanisms. Our findings suggest that access to local colleges did not impact fertility, family formation or mobility to any substantial degree.

Couple relations are a key determinant of mental and physical well-being in old age. However, we do not know how the advantages and disadvantages associated with partnership histories vary between socioeconomic groups. We create relationship history typologies for the cohorts 1945-1957 using the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe and examine, for the first time, how relationship histories relate to multiple indicators of well-being by educational attainment. The results show that stable marriages predict greater well-being, compared to single and less stable partnership histories. The positive outcomes are similar across all educational groups. Those with lower education who have divorced experience even lower well-being in old age. The interaction analyses suggest that individuals with fewer resources could suffer more from losing a partner. The findings underscore that current and past romantic relationships are linked to well-being in old age and help policymakers identify vulnerable subgroups among the ageing population.

In this article, we extend the multiregional cohort-component population projection model developed by Andrei Rogers and colleagues in the 1960s and 1970s to be fully probabilistic. The projections are based on forecasts of age-, sex- and region-specific fertility, mortality, interregional migration, immigration and emigration. The approach is unified by forecasting each demographic component of change by using a combination of log-linear models with bilinear terms. This research contributes to the literature by providing a flexible statistical modelling framework capable of incorporating the high dimensionality of the demographic components over time. The models also account for correlations across age, sex, regions and time. The result is a consistent and robust modelling platform for forecasting subnational populations with measures of uncertainty. We apply the model to forecast population for eight states and territories in Australia.