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Modern Software tools for Agent-based modeling 基于代理的建模的现代软件工具
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18254/s207751800023501-0
A. Bragin
The article describes the current state of the industry of software tools for creating agent-based models, conducting agent-based simulation and processing the results of such modeling. Despite the large number of articles on various problems in the field of agent-based modeling and reviews of some software tools, only one comprehensive English-language work on this issue was published in 2017. Publications in recent years do not fully reflect the state of the industry, there are practically no reviews in Russian. This work is devoted to a review of agent-based and simulation modeling tools with a brief description of them.
本文描述了用于创建基于代理的模型、执行基于代理的仿真和处理此类建模结果的软件工具的行业现状。尽管关于基于智能体的建模领域的各种问题和一些软件工具的评论的文章很多,但在2017年只发表了一篇关于这个问题的综合英语作品。近年来的出版物并没有充分反映该行业的状况,几乎没有俄文的评论。这项工作致力于对基于代理的仿真建模工具进行回顾,并对它们进行简要描述。
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引用次数: 0
How can you trust Artificial Intelligence Systems? Objective, Subjective and Intersubjective parameters of Trust 你怎么能相信人工智能系统?信任的客观、主观和主体间参数
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18254/s207751800020550-4
A. Alekseev
The article studies the most urgent problem of artificial intelligence (AI) - the development of a methodology for assessing trust in AI systems. A universal range of assessment is proposed: objective, subjective and intersubjective parameters. When studying the objective parameters of trust assessment, a formal definition of AI is introduced to increase the validity of trust judgments. When studying subjective parameters as the basis of expert evaluation indicators, their internal logical inconsistency is revealed along with demonstrating the significance of these parameters for analyzing the success and safety of methods for computer simulation of cognitive functions. When studying the intersubjective parameters of trust, a unified format of trust data is proposed, an interdisciplinary organization of monitoring trust in AI systems is considered, and the main blocks of an expert system project are formed.
本文研究了人工智能(AI)最紧迫的问题——开发一种评估人工智能系统信任的方法。提出了一个普遍的评价范围:客观、主观和主体间参数。在研究信任评估的客观参数时,引入了人工智能的形式化定义,以提高信任判断的有效性。在研究作为专家评价指标基础的主观参数时,揭示了主观参数的内在逻辑不一致性,并论证了主观参数对分析认知功能计算机模拟方法的成功性和安全性的重要性。在研究信任主体间参数时,提出了统一的信任数据格式,考虑了人工智能系统信任监测的跨学科组织,形成了专家系统项目的主要模块。
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引用次数: 1
Risks of using cloud technologies in small business in the Russian Federation 俄罗斯联邦小企业使用云技术的风险
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18254/s207751800019437-9
K. Fedorchuk
Currently, small and medium-sized businesses are an important element in the development of the Russian economy. Small and medium business occupies a significant share among all enterprises. SMEs must comply with modern trends in all areas of their activities in order to maintain competitiveness in the market. The current trend in the international and Russian market is the digitalization of business, which belongs to the category of innovation. To save resources, SMEs are forced to use cloud solutions, but their use creates certain risks for the business. The article discusses the main risks faced by SMEs when using such technologies.
目前,中小企业是俄罗斯经济发展的重要组成部分。中小企业在所有企业中占有相当大的份额。中小企业必须在其活动的各个领域顺应现代趋势,以保持在市场上的竞争力。目前国际和俄罗斯市场的趋势是商业的数字化,这属于创新的范畴。为了节省资源,中小企业被迫使用云解决方案,但云解决方案的使用给企业带来了一定的风险。本文讨论了中小企业在使用这些技术时面临的主要风险。
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引用次数: 0
Economics through the prism of mathematical structures 透过数学结构的棱镜看经济学
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18254/s207751800010809-8
D. Alferev
Economics is a human science. But this does not mean that many mathematical tools do not work in it. This only determines that it has its own specifics, and this must be taken into account in the framework of mathematical modeling. Moreover, the humanitarian nature of economic disciplines cannot be the reason for the decisions made in it, based on someone else's authoritative subjective opinion. Mathematics in its nature allows you to make a really correct and reasonable choice. The article considers a wide range of classical mathematical tools of an economist, which has been developed throughout human history in solving various economic problems. The development of mathematical economics is also presented in accordance with the currently relevant machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms and some other mathematical areas that can be applied to economic processes and phenomena.
经济学是一门人文科学。但这并不意味着许多数学工具在其中不起作用。这只决定了它有自己的特点,必须在数学建模的框架中考虑到这一点。此外,经济学科的人道主义性质不能成为其中的决策基于他人权威的主观意见的理由。数学的本质是让你做出真正正确和合理的选择。本文考虑了经济学家的一系列经典数学工具,这些工具在人类历史上发展起来,用于解决各种经济问题。根据目前相关的机器学习和人工智能算法以及其他一些可以应用于经济过程和现象的数学领域,介绍了数学经济学的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation games in business education: the experience of business simulation "Startup: the Limits to Growth" 商业教育中的模拟游戏:商业模拟的经验——创业:成长的极限
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18254/s207751800021241-4
D. Katalevsky
The article reveals how simulations can be used in the teaching of management disciplines. Despite the high demand from students for interactive teaching methods, simulation games are still of a limited use in business education. This is largely due to the lack of high-quality simulation games, especially considering unique domestic simulations. The article reviews the author’s experience of teaching of “Startup: Limits to Growth” Simulation Game based on the agent approach to modeling in business education. By reviewing the outcomes of many simulation sessions, we analyze the key strategies of participants’ decision-making and their misperception of complex systems. We show that business game participants on average poorly perform the simulation even considering a rather moderate nature of complexity embedded in the game provided by a couple of feedback loops and delay effects. We suggest active use of business simulations in training of contemporary managers to develop their system thinking skills and to train their holistic analysis capabilities in business.
本文揭示了如何在管理学科的教学中使用模拟。尽管学生对互动式教学方法有很高的要求,但模拟游戏在商业教育中的应用仍然有限。这主要是由于缺乏高质量的模拟游戏,特别是考虑到国内独特的模拟游戏。本文回顾了笔者在商科教育中基于代理建模方法的“创业:成长的极限”模拟游戏教学经验。通过回顾多次模拟会议的结果,我们分析了参与者决策的关键策略及其对复杂系统的误解。我们表明,即使考虑到由几个反馈循环和延迟效应提供的游戏中嵌入的相当适度的复杂性,商业游戏参与者在模拟中的平均表现也很差。我们建议在当代管理人员的培训中积极运用商业模拟,培养他们的系统思维能力,培养他们在商业中的整体分析能力。
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引用次数: 0
Approaches to Assessing the Socio-Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Computer Simulation 利用计算机模拟评估COVID-19大流行的社会经济后果的方法
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18254/s207751800021929-0
D. Evdokimov
In the context of the coronavirus pandemic, there is an increasing need to develop methods for scientifically based assessment of the consequences both at the level of the country's economy and at the regional level. One of the acute problems of the development of the Russian economy in the context of the coronavirus pandemic is the conflict between measures to protect the life and health of people and the fall in economic activity. To support the economy, countries are taking anti-crisis measures, which are aimed primarily at overcoming serious consequences in the most vulnerable sectors. As part of the study, to assess the socio-economic consequences of the epidemic and reproduce forecasts, modern simulation tools are used - agent-based modeling. Agent-based models allow you to use software of various classes, including neural networks, mathematical models, 3D-4D add-ons and other technologies that can visualize the results of scenario predictive estimates and computational experiments. The aim of the study is to develop methods and techniques for forecasting and scenario modeling of the socio-economic consequences of viral epidemics. For the study, a detailed statistical and analytical database was formed, adaptive blocks were developed with the possibility of additional inclusion of indicators. The software implementation included three functional blocks: demographic, economic and epidemiological, as well as three categories of agents within each subject of the Russian Federation with individual characteristics based on accepted world practice. The software tool chosen to implement the research objectives is the platform for creating agent-based models "AnyLogic". The study was carried out on the example of the following subjects of the Russian Federation: Murmansk region, Krasnodar region, Sverdlovsk, Samara and Voronezh regions. Based on the results of the study, an architecture of an agent-based model was developed, which makes it possible to evaluate restrictive measures and regulations in terms of the socio-economic consequences of a pandemic. As a result of the study, methods and algorithms for agent-based modeling of the socio-economic consequences of viral epidemics were developed, taking into account spatial and communicative interactions. To fulfill the objectives of the study, at the first stage, an analysis of scientific methods for forecasting and building various models for assessing the consequences of macroeconomic decisions and models for the spread of viral epidemics was carried out. At the second stage, an agent-based model was developed, which took into account structured and unstructured information, including the socio-demographic and economic characteristics of the regions, such as morbidity and mortality, employment rates, as well as measures taken by the regions to counter the spread of COVID-19. In terms of social interaction between agents, the study implemented a dynamic multi-relational (MRN) social network of age
在冠状病毒大流行的背景下,越来越需要制定方法,在国家经济和区域层面对后果进行科学评估。在冠状病毒大流行背景下,俄罗斯经济发展面临的一个严峻问题是,保护人民生命和健康的措施与经济活动下降之间存在冲突。为了支持经济,各国正在采取反危机措施,其主要目的是克服最脆弱部门的严重后果。作为研究的一部分,为了评估该流行病的社会经济后果和重现预测,使用了现代模拟工具——基于主体的建模。基于代理的模型允许您使用各种类型的软件,包括神经网络,数学模型,3D-4D附加组件和其他可以可视化场景预测估计和计算实验结果的技术。这项研究的目的是发展预测病毒流行的社会经济后果和情景建模的方法和技术。在这项研究中,形成了一个详细的统计和分析数据库,开发了自适应块,并可能额外纳入指标。软件的实施包括三个功能模块:人口、经济和流行病学,以及俄罗斯联邦每一主题内根据公认的世界惯例具有个人特征的三类代理人。选择用于实现研究目标的软件工具是创建基于代理的模型的平台“AnyLogic”。这项研究是以俄罗斯联邦下列主题为例进行的:摩尔曼斯克地区、克拉斯诺达尔地区、斯维尔德洛夫斯克地区、萨马拉地区和沃罗涅日地区。根据这项研究的结果,开发了一个基于主体的模型架构,使人们能够根据大流行病的社会经济后果来评估限制性措施和条例。研究的结果是,考虑到空间和交流的相互作用,开发了基于主体的病毒流行病社会经济后果建模方法和算法。为了实现这项研究的目标,在第一阶段,分析了预测和建立各种模型以评估宏观经济决策后果的科学方法以及病毒流行病传播的模型。在第二阶段,开发了一个基于主体的模型,该模型考虑了结构化和非结构化信息,包括各区域的社会人口和经济特征,如发病率和死亡率、就业率,以及各区域为应对COVID-19蔓延所采取的措施。在代理人之间的社会互动方面,研究实现了代理人的动态多关系(MRN)社会网络,该网络的结构在引入隔离措施时发生变化,限制了代理人之间的互动程度。在同一类型的病原体群体中引入不同的个体特征具体值,使得能够在个人层面上最详细地评估病毒流行病的社会经济后果。这一研究领域的进一步发展将包括改进已开发的模型,以便根据已获得的预测情景,从领土系统社会经济发展的角度分析病毒流行病传播的后果。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the influence of Information Impacts on the Choice of Diet by Russian residents based on an Agent-based model 基于agent模型的信息冲击对俄罗斯居民饮食选择的影响分析
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18254/s207751800023531-3
A. Mashkova
The article is devoted to the study of the influence of information influences on the choice of diet by residents in an agent-based model of the dynamics of the spread of anemia. The structure of the model is presented, the interrelations of agents with the socio-economic environment through the channels of employment, consumption and receiving benefits from the state are determined. Two main channels of information impact are considered: advertising and thematic content. Through these channels, three types of influences are distributed in the model: “motivating”, “frightening” and “tempting”. Their influence is modeled using the algorithms presented in the article for informational impact and changes in the food pattern. To reflect the differences in the degree of exposure of agents to the influence of information influences, the concept of a cluster of social activity is introduced. As part of experimental studies, a comparison was made of the number of residents who adhere to a balanced diet in the absence of informational influences, with advertising with a coverage of 20% to 80% and thematic content with motivating and frightening effects. The resulting forecasts were compared with the forecast in the absence of advertising. In the absence of information impacts of other types, advertising with a coverage of more than 60% leads to a decrease in the number of residents adhering to diet No. 1 by 10%, and with a coverage of 80%, the drop is already 19%. The presence of thematic content with a coverage of 5% makes it possible to compensate for the negative effects of advertising, and with an increase in coverage to 20%, the number of residents adhering to diet No. 1 grows by 20% compared to the base case in the absence of any information impact.
本文在基于主体的贫血传播动态模型中,研究了信息对居民饮食选择的影响。提出了模型的结构,确定了主体通过就业、消费和从国家获得利益等渠道与社会经济环境的相互关系。考虑到信息影响的两个主要渠道:广告和专题内容。通过这些渠道,三种类型的影响分布在模型中:“激励”,“恐惧”和“诱惑”。它们的影响使用文章中介绍的算法来模拟信息影响和食物模式的变化。为了反映代理人对信息影响的暴露程度的差异,引入了社会活动集群的概念。作为实验研究的一部分,比较了在没有信息影响的情况下坚持均衡饮食的居民人数,广告覆盖率为20%至80%,主题内容具有激励和恐惧的效果。得出的预测结果与没有广告的预测结果进行了比较。在没有其他类型的信息影响的情况下,覆盖率超过60%的广告会导致坚持1号饮食的居民数量下降10%,覆盖率达到80%时,已经下降了19%。专题内容的覆盖率为5%,可以弥补广告的负面影响,并且随着覆盖率增加到20%,与没有任何信息影响的基本情况相比,坚持第一种饮食的居民人数增加了20%。
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引用次数: 0
Digitization of Love 爱情数字化
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18254/s207751800018248-1
D. Bylieva
Modern technologies are increasingly changing the life of humans. Even romantic relationships today are becoming technologically mediated. Digital technologies are used for communication and partner selection. Virtualization of relationships goes hand in hand with dehumanization, computer games, simulators, chatbots expand the possibilities of romantic and erotic relationships with technological unhuman. The development of artificial intelligence technologies has determined its decisive role both in the selection and communication with partners and in the creation of an "ideal" companion robot capable of satisfying human desires. The article describes the dynamics of changes in the impact of technology on the love sphere of life, presents examples of technologies used, and analyzes existing trends.
现代科技正日益改变着人类的生活。如今,即使是浪漫的关系也正在被技术所介导。数字技术用于沟通和合作伙伴选择。人际关系的虚拟化与非人性化密切相关,电脑游戏、模拟器、聊天机器人用非人类的技术扩大了浪漫和色情关系的可能性。人工智能技术的发展决定了它在选择和交流伙伴以及创造能够满足人类欲望的“理想”伴侣机器人方面的决定性作用。本文描述了技术对生活中爱情领域影响的动态变化,展示了使用的技术示例,并分析了现有的趋势。
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引用次数: 0
Features of Human Resource Management in Large Socio-economic Systems based on Intellectual and Social rating. 基于智力与社会等级的大型社会经济系统人力资源管理特征
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18254/s207751800023471-7
A. Amentes
In November 2022, the world population surpassed 8 billion people. Population density is increasing, and urbanization is the main driver of density growth. There are associations of territories around the largest cities in different countries. Such associations began to be called mega-regions. Each of the mega-regions is a large system in terms of its features and properties. The elements of the system are citizens, who in general can be united by the concept of human resources. mega-regions compete with each other for high-quality human resources, creating comfortable and attractive living conditions. At the same time, mega-regions use various ways to control and use human resources, as well as ways to invest in the creation of human capital. Today, much attention is paid to the individuality and personality of citizens, since it is precisely the properties of a person that make it possible to produce the main value of the 21st century - information. This creates certain barriers and problems for working with people, as it raises the issue of taboo memes that negatively affect immigration. The article also deals with the issues of metauniverses as surrogates for megaregions. A scheme for the development of human potential is given, as well as a system for assessing the personal quality of individuals.
到2022年11月,世界人口超过80亿。人口密度不断增加,城市化是人口密度增长的主要动力。不同国家的大城市周围都有地区协会。这样的联系开始被称为超级地区。就其特征和属性而言,每个超级区域都是一个大系统。这个制度的要素是公民,一般来说,他们可以通过人力资源的概念团结起来。超大区域相互竞争优质人力资源,创造舒适而有吸引力的生活条件。与此同时,特大区域利用各种方式控制和使用人力资源,以及投资于人力资本创造的方式。今天,人们非常重视公民的个性和个性,因为正是一个人的属性才有可能产生21世纪的主要价值——信息。这给与人合作带来了一定的障碍和问题,因为它引发了禁忌表情包的问题,对移民产生了负面影响。本文还讨论了以元宇宙代替特大区域的问题。提出了开发人的潜能的方案,以及评价个人素质的体系。
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引用次数: 0
Digital platforms of the metaverses as a digital twin 虚拟世界的数字平台是一个数字双胞胎
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18254/s207751800022959-3
A. Barybina
This study was carried out as part of the development of guidelines for the creation of an ecosystem digital platform for the industry of the Ural Federal District (URFO). The platform solves many urgent problems formulated by representatives of industry, science, public administration, education and investment. This study is devoted to solving one of the tasks set for the platform - reducing barriers to the implementation of digital transformation processes in the industry. To solve this problem, the ecosystem is supplemented with the introduction of the mathuniverse - augmented reality (XR) technology, as one of the constituent elements of the architecture of the ecosystem of the digital platform industry of the Ural Federal District.
这项研究是为乌拉尔联邦区(URFO)工业创建生态系统数字平台制定指导方针的一部分。该平台解决了工业、科学、公共管理、教育和投资代表提出的许多紧迫问题。本研究致力于解决平台设定的任务之一-减少行业中实施数字化转型过程的障碍。为了解决这个问题,生态系统的补充是引入mathuniverse -增强现实(XR)技术,作为乌拉尔联邦区数字平台产业生态系统架构的组成要素之一。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
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