Purpose This paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory foresighting methodology for a forthcoming study. Design/methodology/approach This paper reports a forecasting study about the future of clean energy. Driven mostly by economics and changing carbon policies, the energy sector is currently moving from fossil fuels to a variety of cleaner technologies. Energy experts have several incommensurate interpretations of how this change will happen. This paper describes the first phase of an ongoing study that foresight clean energy futures in Australia. By building on a participatory method in a scientific expert community, it describes the path from technological presumptions into four parallel yet interconnected scenarios. The paper also explores the social drivers behind these scenarios. Findings First, energy experts in Australia classify futures into four main scenarios: abundant, where energy will be mostly produced by solar cells; traded, where the future of energy lies in virtual power plants and microgrids; circular, which targets Australia’s NetZero goals through biomaterials, carbon capture and new powerful; secure, which secures the country’s energy supply through coal and nuclear energy. Second, they locate policy as the most important form of wildcards. The policy is multilayered from local to US politics and falls outside the scope of forecasting. Research limitations/implications The most important limitations of the study are: first, its reliance on scientific and technological experts, which guarantees its scientific validity but may underrepresent the social drivers of energy; second, this study is a methodological pilot of a larger study that will target industrial, commercial and local drivers; third, its focus on Australia, where politics, the size of the country and climate shape the uptake of clean energy in specific ways, most notably in the case of rapid uptake of solar energy. Practical implications The main practical implications of the paper are its broad focus on clean energy futures and its participatory foresighting approach, which can be repeated in other studies. Social implications The main social implication of the study is that it clearly shows that a technological perspective is necessary but not sufficient in understanding the future of clean energy. The paper also shows that local drivers importantly mold the future and should be taken into account in future studies and policy. Originality/value This paper makes two contributions. First, it organizes several technologies into four scenarios that clarify Australia’s clean energy futures better than a piecemeal study would do. Second, it developed and piloted an interpretive participatory methodology for studying futures by building on references from design research. This methodology will be used in subsequent studies.
{"title":"Designing energy futures: a participatory foresight study in Australia","authors":"I. Koskinen, Nicholas Gilmore, Emi Minghui Gui","doi":"10.1108/fs-09-2021-0186","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-09-2021-0186","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory foresighting methodology for a forthcoming study.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper reports a forecasting study about the future of clean energy. Driven mostly by economics and changing carbon policies, the energy sector is currently moving from fossil fuels to a variety of cleaner technologies. Energy experts have several incommensurate interpretations of how this change will happen. This paper describes the first phase of an ongoing study that foresight clean energy futures in Australia. By building on a participatory method in a scientific expert community, it describes the path from technological presumptions into four parallel yet interconnected scenarios. The paper also explores the social drivers behind these scenarios.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000First, energy experts in Australia classify futures into four main scenarios: abundant, where energy will be mostly produced by solar cells; traded, where the future of energy lies in virtual power plants and microgrids; circular, which targets Australia’s NetZero goals through biomaterials, carbon capture and new powerful; secure, which secures the country’s energy supply through coal and nuclear energy. Second, they locate policy as the most important form of wildcards. The policy is multilayered from local to US politics and falls outside the scope of forecasting.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The most important limitations of the study are: first, its reliance on scientific and technological experts, which guarantees its scientific validity but may underrepresent the social drivers of energy; second, this study is a methodological pilot of a larger study that will target industrial, commercial and local drivers; third, its focus on Australia, where politics, the size of the country and climate shape the uptake of clean energy in specific ways, most notably in the case of rapid uptake of solar energy.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The main practical implications of the paper are its broad focus on clean energy futures and its participatory foresighting approach, which can be repeated in other studies.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000The main social implication of the study is that it clearly shows that a technological perspective is necessary but not sufficient in understanding the future of clean energy. The paper also shows that local drivers importantly mold the future and should be taken into account in future studies and policy.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper makes two contributions. First, it organizes several technologies into four scenarios that clarify Australia’s clean energy futures better than a piecemeal study would do. Second, it developed and piloted an interpretive participatory methodology for studying futures by building on references from design research. This methodology will be used in subsequent studies.\u0000","PeriodicalId":51620,"journal":{"name":"Foresight","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43698682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to nurture reflections on the colonization of the future in the present with a particular focus on Africa. This paper aims at exploring how participatory research and particularly anticipatory action research can contribute to a decolonising process. Design/methodology/approach Considering the future as a public good, this paper develops a reflection on the colonization processes that can turn it into a club or a private good. This paper mobilizes the notions of participatory knowledge production and local action research as a way to decolonize the future and empower imagination. This paper revisits the tenets of participatory action research as a means to achieve this objective and discusses the main features of a non-colonial anticipatory action research in the context of African futures. Findings This paper highlights the challenges associated with connecting anticipatory endeavours focusing on action research, the creation of collective intelligence and co-design, with the intention of encouraging the decolonisation process. It includes design principles and anticipates a possible process of counter-decolonization. Research limitations/implications This is a conceptual paper, which does not provide field-tested evidence. Yet, the authors hope it serves as an input enabling to design methodologies that will prevent the colonisation of the future when engaging in future-oriented research activities in Africa and elsewhere. Originality/value This paper provides an integral approach to the colonisation of the future, as a renewed old question. This paper also connects this process with a reflection on the nature of what could be non-colonizing anticipatory action research.
{"title":"The future as a public good: decolonising the future through anticipatory participatory action research","authors":"R. Bourgeois, G. Karuri-Sebina, Kwamou Eva Feukeu","doi":"10.1108/fs-11-2021-0225","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2021-0225","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to nurture reflections on the colonization of the future in the present with a particular focus on Africa. This paper aims at exploring how participatory research and particularly anticipatory action research can contribute to a decolonising process.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Considering the future as a public good, this paper develops a reflection on the colonization processes that can turn it into a club or a private good. This paper mobilizes the notions of participatory knowledge production and local action research as a way to decolonize the future and empower imagination. This paper revisits the tenets of participatory action research as a means to achieve this objective and discusses the main features of a non-colonial anticipatory action research in the context of African futures.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This paper highlights the challenges associated with connecting anticipatory endeavours focusing on action research, the creation of collective intelligence and co-design, with the intention of encouraging the decolonisation process. It includes design principles and anticipates a possible process of counter-decolonization.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This is a conceptual paper, which does not provide field-tested evidence. Yet, the authors hope it serves as an input enabling to design methodologies that will prevent the colonisation of the future when engaging in future-oriented research activities in Africa and elsewhere.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper provides an integral approach to the colonisation of the future, as a renewed old question. This paper also connects this process with a reflection on the nature of what could be non-colonizing anticipatory action research.\u0000","PeriodicalId":51620,"journal":{"name":"Foresight","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43103093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose This paper aims to present a theoretical model for restructuring Colombia’s educational initiatives in response to current socioeconomic needs. More equitable and decolonized education could help learners decouple their capacities to imagine the future from colonialized paradigms, thereby opening spaces for more active engagement in their own futures. Design/methodology/approach The authors take a critical, postmodern approach focused on empowering people to transcend constraints from a colonial past and recognizing that the purpose of knowledge, although reflecting power and social relationships, is to help people improve society. Notions of situated and futures literacies nourish an approach toward a decolonized and glocalized educational model. Findings The current Colombian educational system tends to favor a single focus – local, national or international – at the expense of the others. The authors argue that educational policy and planning should account for three realms of knowledge: locally situated literacies, nationally situated literacies and globally situated literacies. Originality/value Deconstructing obsolete and colonized methodologies could not only help prepare Colombian learners for active engagement both within and beyond their modern-day borders but could also help transform other educational systems originally designed to support societies and economies that no longer exist, including those of the Global North.
{"title":"Situating futures literacies in the Colombian educational system: a decolonizing theoretical model","authors":"C. Anderson, R. David","doi":"10.1108/fs-12-2021-0246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-12-2021-0246","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to present a theoretical model for restructuring Colombia’s educational initiatives in response to current socioeconomic needs. More equitable and decolonized education could help learners decouple their capacities to imagine the future from colonialized paradigms, thereby opening spaces for more active engagement in their own futures.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The authors take a critical, postmodern approach focused on empowering people to transcend constraints from a colonial past and recognizing that the purpose of knowledge, although reflecting power and social relationships, is to help people improve society. Notions of situated and futures literacies nourish an approach toward a decolonized and glocalized educational model.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The current Colombian educational system tends to favor a single focus – local, national or international – at the expense of the others. The authors argue that educational policy and planning should account for three realms of knowledge: locally situated literacies, nationally situated literacies and globally situated literacies.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Deconstructing obsolete and colonized methodologies could not only help prepare Colombian learners for active engagement both within and beyond their modern-day borders but could also help transform other educational systems originally designed to support societies and economies that no longer exist, including those of the Global North.\u0000","PeriodicalId":51620,"journal":{"name":"Foresight","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42973713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose The purpose of this study is threefold: to pilot research on the role that trauma-healing and resilience play in developing futures consciousness/literacy; to explore how this informs the coloniality of sexuality; and to engage economically marginalised young gay and bisexual men in exploring future scenarios for the wider LGBTQI+ community in Kenya. Design/methodology/approach This study used participatory action research to pilot the study. Workshop sessions focused on exploratory futures using an integral futures framework. Futures tools used consisted of the futures triangle, polak game and a two-by-two matrix scenario building exercise. Findings Participants found that previous psychosocial support and mental health counselling enabled them to address past traumas, find healing and begin a productive journey of unpacking their understanding of agency and engage with developing personal and communal futures thinking – all prerequisites for effectively addressing decoloniality. Originality/value This research represents the only study of the four-way intersection of trauma-healing, futures consciousness/literacy, the queer community in Africa and decoloniality and coloniality of sexuality.
{"title":"The intersection of trauma-informed futures and the coloniality of sexuality: building futures consciousness with Kenya’s LGBTQI+ community","authors":"S. Lichty, Francis Kamunya","doi":"10.1108/fs-10-2021-0219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-10-2021-0219","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this study is threefold: to pilot research on the role that trauma-healing and resilience play in developing futures consciousness/literacy; to explore how this informs the coloniality of sexuality; and to engage economically marginalised young gay and bisexual men in exploring future scenarios for the wider LGBTQI+ community in Kenya.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study used participatory action research to pilot the study. Workshop sessions focused on exploratory futures using an integral futures framework. Futures tools used consisted of the futures triangle, polak game and a two-by-two matrix scenario building exercise.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Participants found that previous psychosocial support and mental health counselling enabled them to address past traumas, find healing and begin a productive journey of unpacking their understanding of agency and engage with developing personal and communal futures thinking – all prerequisites for effectively addressing decoloniality.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This research represents the only study of the four-way intersection of trauma-healing, futures consciousness/literacy, the queer community in Africa and decoloniality and coloniality of sexuality.\u0000","PeriodicalId":51620,"journal":{"name":"Foresight","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43735048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose This paper aims to present the case for critical realism (CR) as a framework in steering the anticipatory and participatory activities an appropriate analysis of complex problems, aiming toward a transformative change. Design/methodology/approach Through observation, interview and facilitation for Circular Design Lab and Thai Clean Air Network, this paper unpacks their foresight activities, their key findings and subsequently connects to the Morphogenesis analysis based on an alternative foresight epistemology of CR. Findings Foresight based on CR philosophy provides a deeper understanding of the complexity and invisibility of air pollution issues in Thailand. Acknowledging the transitive reality beyond this study’s perception, the activity design applies the iceberg models to investigate problem framing and illustrate the stratified reality in three domains: the empirical based on emission reports and legislative regulations; the actual based on patterns of farmers practice and industrial development, activated by causal mechanisms; the real based on structural and mental models, driven by cultural and belief systems in Thailand. At the bottom layer of the iceberg, the real lies the generative mechanisms of pre-existing structural and cultures that constrain Thai citizen from acting on social change. Research limitations/implications CR’s emancipatory theory provides an immanent critique towards social improvement by illustrating comprehensive causal explanations of complex problems such as air pollution; while morphogenesis theory elaborates on the unconscious domination of the existing social structures, agencies, and cultures. Thus, the ethical inquiry of CR research is committed to the emancipation of false beliefs and creating conditions for “human prosperity”. However, this non-neutral value commitment is debated in the futures studies field. Practical implications The anticipatory activities on air pollution in Thailand bring to light the reality of power and oppression beyond human perception and illustrate the connection to the belief systems and its consequential action or lack thereof in dealing with the issues. The insight to power relationship provides an unconventional way to empower citizens in creating transformative change. Originality/value Modern foresight practice has developed under western cultures and societies. Recent efforts are made to investigate the epistemology underlying this field, for the future issues are ever more complex and interrelated across multiple sectors. This requires this study’s consideration of the meaning of knowledge and knowing, influencing the research paradigm. This paper proposes CR as a suitable foresight approach to emancipate this study from the widely accepted epistemologies and examine this study’s presupposition about social reality by a philosophical explanation based on the elements of ontology, causation, structure and persons.
{"title":"AQI revisioned: a critical realism approach to transforming air pollution","authors":"Thasanawan Boonmavichit","doi":"10.1108/fs-06-2021-0129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-06-2021-0129","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to present the case for critical realism (CR) as a framework in steering the anticipatory and participatory activities an appropriate analysis of complex problems, aiming toward a transformative change.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Through observation, interview and facilitation for Circular Design Lab and Thai Clean Air Network, this paper unpacks their foresight activities, their key findings and subsequently connects to the Morphogenesis analysis based on an alternative foresight epistemology of CR.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Foresight based on CR philosophy provides a deeper understanding of the complexity and invisibility of air pollution issues in Thailand. Acknowledging the transitive reality beyond this study’s perception, the activity design applies the iceberg models to investigate problem framing and illustrate the stratified reality in three domains: the empirical based on emission reports and legislative regulations; the actual based on patterns of farmers practice and industrial development, activated by causal mechanisms; the real based on structural and mental models, driven by cultural and belief systems in Thailand. At the bottom layer of the iceberg, the real lies the generative mechanisms of pre-existing structural and cultures that constrain Thai citizen from acting on social change.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000CR’s emancipatory theory provides an immanent critique towards social improvement by illustrating comprehensive causal explanations of complex problems such as air pollution; while morphogenesis theory elaborates on the unconscious domination of the existing social structures, agencies, and cultures. Thus, the ethical inquiry of CR research is committed to the emancipation of false beliefs and creating conditions for “human prosperity”. However, this non-neutral value commitment is debated in the futures studies field.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The anticipatory activities on air pollution in Thailand bring to light the reality of power and oppression beyond human perception and illustrate the connection to the belief systems and its consequential action or lack thereof in dealing with the issues. The insight to power relationship provides an unconventional way to empower citizens in creating transformative change.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Modern foresight practice has developed under western cultures and societies. Recent efforts are made to investigate the epistemology underlying this field, for the future issues are ever more complex and interrelated across multiple sectors. This requires this study’s consideration of the meaning of knowledge and knowing, influencing the research paradigm. This paper proposes CR as a suitable foresight approach to emancipate this study from the widely accepted epistemologies and examine this study’s presupposition about social reality by a philosophical explanation based on the elements of ontology, causation, structure and persons.\u0000","PeriodicalId":51620,"journal":{"name":"Foresight","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44093296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose This paper aims to introduce, unpack, explore, make sense and share Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as a futures concept, framework and methodology to reconceptualize foresight and reframe anticipatory processes to enable the self and communities to reimagine visions of the future. This indigenous foresight process offers to strip the husk and break the shell of conscious, colonial anticipation and reveal and liberate unconscious imagination that enables ethical aspirations to emerge. Design/methodology/approach This paper introduces and examines the context, purpose and process of the four waves of the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach. These were constructed through the use of the Engaged Foresight approach, through workshops, a literature review and an action–learning approach. The first wave, lawak, looks into the breadth of foresight. The second wave, lalim, looks into the depth of foresight. Tayog, the third wave, looks into the peak of foresight. Finally, the fourth wave of foresight kababaang-loob contemplates the nature, values and wisdom of foresight. Findings This paper shares the processes, experiences and impacts through five case studies where the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach was applied. This paper shares the impacts of Hiraya Foresight in democratizing and indigenizing futures literacy. Originality/value This paper describes and offers Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as an indigenous approach to decolonize futures studies and foresight practice.
{"title":"Awakening the unconscious imagination and igniting ethical aspirations: the case of Hiraya Foresight via the engaged foresight approach","authors":"S. Cruz, Nicole Anne Kahn-Parreño","doi":"10.1108/fs-11-2021-0237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2021-0237","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to introduce, unpack, explore, make sense and share Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as a futures concept, framework and methodology to reconceptualize foresight and reframe anticipatory processes to enable the self and communities to reimagine visions of the future. This indigenous foresight process offers to strip the husk and break the shell of conscious, colonial anticipation and reveal and liberate unconscious imagination that enables ethical aspirations to emerge.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper introduces and examines the context, purpose and process of the four waves of the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach. These were constructed through the use of the Engaged Foresight approach, through workshops, a literature review and an action–learning approach. The first wave, lawak, looks into the breadth of foresight. The second wave, lalim, looks into the depth of foresight. Tayog, the third wave, looks into the peak of foresight. Finally, the fourth wave of foresight kababaang-loob contemplates the nature, values and wisdom of foresight.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This paper shares the processes, experiences and impacts through five case studies where the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach was applied. This paper shares the impacts of Hiraya Foresight in democratizing and indigenizing futures literacy.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper describes and offers Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as an indigenous approach to decolonize futures studies and foresight practice.\u0000","PeriodicalId":51620,"journal":{"name":"Foresight","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42616902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose This paper aims to identify the aspects that social actors consider in constructing shared futures in communities. In their application in emerging countries, especially in the Global South, the socio-cultural particularities of communities and actors are often overlooked, generating friction or social conflicts. This paper presents two critical elements contributing to the debate: the importance of understanding Social Actors within a model of generating community futures in emerging countries; and the relevant factors that influence the actors in an exercise of building futures in communities. Design/methodology/approach From qualitative research, a case study of community foresight of the future was used: the future of Puerto Gaitán 2037 (Meta, Colombia). A method of information collection was applied from observation of the participants and analysis of documentation. The analysis method was the deductive qualitative analysis (DQA). Findings The participation of the social actors presents a model of five relevant elements that influence the actors for the successful construction of futures in communities. The first four factors, revealed from theory, are presented in real life. Likewise, a fifth factor is proven, Long-term thinking, which is evidenced by a model of application of futures studies for the specific context, applicable to the case of communities in countries of the Global South. Originality/value Although there are isolated examples of recommendations regarding studies to generate the future of communities, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that presents concrete factors that contribute to guiding the construction of community futures from social actors, especially in countries of the Global South such as Colombia. It is also one of the first studies to use the DQA as a method of analysis in a topic of futures studies.
{"title":"Social Actors constructing community visions in the Global South","authors":"Fredy Vargas-Lama","doi":"10.1108/fs-11-2021-0235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2021-0235","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to identify the aspects that social actors consider in constructing shared futures in communities. In their application in emerging countries, especially in the Global South, the socio-cultural particularities of communities and actors are often overlooked, generating friction or social conflicts. This paper presents two critical elements contributing to the debate: the importance of understanding Social Actors within a model of generating community futures in emerging countries; and the relevant factors that influence the actors in an exercise of building futures in communities.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000From qualitative research, a case study of community foresight of the future was used: the future of Puerto Gaitán 2037 (Meta, Colombia). A method of information collection was applied from observation of the participants and analysis of documentation. The analysis method was the deductive qualitative analysis (DQA).\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The participation of the social actors presents a model of five relevant elements that influence the actors for the successful construction of futures in communities. The first four factors, revealed from theory, are presented in real life. Likewise, a fifth factor is proven, Long-term thinking, which is evidenced by a model of application of futures studies for the specific context, applicable to the case of communities in countries of the Global South.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Although there are isolated examples of recommendations regarding studies to generate the future of communities, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that presents concrete factors that contribute to guiding the construction of community futures from social actors, especially in countries of the Global South such as Colombia. It is also one of the first studies to use the DQA as a method of analysis in a topic of futures studies.\u0000","PeriodicalId":51620,"journal":{"name":"Foresight","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48180156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to see how critical and vital artificial intelligence (AI) and big data are in today’s world. Besides this, this paper also seeks to explore qualitative and theoretical perspectives to underscore the importance of AI and big data applications in multi-sectoral scenarios of businesses across the world. Moreover, this paper also aims at working out the scope of ontological communicative perspectives based on AI alongside emphasizing their relevance in business organizations that need to survive and sustain with a view to achieve their strategic goals. Design/methodology/approach This paper attempts to explore the qualitative perspectives to build a direction for strategic management via addressing the following research questions concerned with assessing the scope of ontological communicative perspectives in AI relevant to business organizations; exploring benefits of big data combined with AI in modern businesses; and underscoring the importance of AI and big data applications in multi-sectoral scenarios of businesses in today’s world. Employing bibliometric analysis along with NVivo software to do sentiment analysis, this paper attempts to develop an understanding of what happens when AI and big data are combined in businesses. Findings AI and big data have tremendous bearing on modern businesses. Because big data comprises enormous information of diverse sorts, AI-assisted machines, tools and devices help modern businesses process it quickly, efficiently and meaningfully. Therefore, business leaders and entrepreneurs need to focus heavily on ontological and communicative perspectives to deal with diverse range of challenges and problems particularly in the context of recent crises caused by COVID-19 pandemic. Research limitations/implications There is hardly any arena of human activity wherein AI and big data are not relevant. The implication of this paper is that of combining both well so that we may find answers to the difficult and challenging multi-sectoral scenarios concerning not just businesses but life at large. Moreover, automated tools based on AI such as natural language processing and speech to text also facilitate meaningful communication at various levels not just in business organizations but other fields of human activities as well. Social implications This paper has layered social implications, as it conceptually works out as to how strategically we may combine AI and big data to benefit modern business scenarios dealing with service providers, manufacturers, entrepreneurs, business leaders, customers and consumers. All the stakeholders are socio-culturally and contextually rooted/situated, and that is how this study becomes socially relevant. Originality/value This paper is an original piece of research and has been envisioned in view of the challenging business scenarios across the world today. This paper underscores the importance of strategically combining AI and big data, as t
{"title":"Artificial intelligence and big data: ontological and communicative perspectives in multi-sectoral scenarios of modern businesses","authors":"M. Arora, Roshan Lal Sharma","doi":"10.1108/FS-10-2021-0216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0216","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to see how critical and vital artificial intelligence (AI) and big data are in today’s world. Besides this, this paper also seeks to explore qualitative and theoretical perspectives to underscore the importance of AI and big data applications in multi-sectoral scenarios of businesses across the world. Moreover, this paper also aims at working out the scope of ontological communicative perspectives based on AI alongside emphasizing their relevance in business organizations that need to survive and sustain with a view to achieve their strategic goals.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper attempts to explore the qualitative perspectives to build a direction for strategic management via addressing the following research questions concerned with assessing the scope of ontological communicative perspectives in AI relevant to business organizations; exploring benefits of big data combined with AI in modern businesses; and underscoring the importance of AI and big data applications in multi-sectoral scenarios of businesses in today’s world. Employing bibliometric analysis along with NVivo software to do sentiment analysis, this paper attempts to develop an understanding of what happens when AI and big data are combined in businesses.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000AI and big data have tremendous bearing on modern businesses. Because big data comprises enormous information of diverse sorts, AI-assisted machines, tools and devices help modern businesses process it quickly, efficiently and meaningfully. Therefore, business leaders and entrepreneurs need to focus heavily on ontological and communicative perspectives to deal with diverse range of challenges and problems particularly in the context of recent crises caused by COVID-19 pandemic.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000There is hardly any arena of human activity wherein AI and big data are not relevant. The implication of this paper is that of combining both well so that we may find answers to the difficult and challenging multi-sectoral scenarios concerning not just businesses but life at large. Moreover, automated tools based on AI such as natural language processing and speech to text also facilitate meaningful communication at various levels not just in business organizations but other fields of human activities as well.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000This paper has layered social implications, as it conceptually works out as to how strategically we may combine AI and big data to benefit modern business scenarios dealing with service providers, manufacturers, entrepreneurs, business leaders, customers and consumers. All the stakeholders are socio-culturally and contextually rooted/situated, and that is how this study becomes socially relevant.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper is an original piece of research and has been envisioned in view of the challenging business scenarios across the world today. This paper underscores the importance of strategically combining AI and big data, as t","PeriodicalId":51620,"journal":{"name":"Foresight","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42152508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The first aim of this study is to show the impact of global warming on temperature and precipitation changes in Algeria. The second objective is to exhibit the strategy planned by the country to mitigate these effects on water resources in the future.
Design/methodology/approach
This research assesses the expected changes in temperature, precipitation and SPEI index, over Algeria (16 weather stations), between two horizons (2030, 2050), by using an ensemble of 16 general circulation models under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios.
Findings
More warming and drought will be experienced under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6 scenario. The highest warming is observed at the Southern stations. However, the lowest precipitation is projected in the western stations. The results of SPEI calculation indicate that the severity of drought spread progressively across time and space. The highest values were observed over 2050 with values varied between 0.15 and −2.08 under RCP2.6 scenario, and range from −0.73 to −2.63 under RCP8.5. These results indicate that Algeria is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change on water resources, which stressed the need to develop a strategy against this situation.
Originality/value
This study is one of the first to simulate the future climate changes over 16 Algerian weather stations by using an average of 16 general circulation models data, under two RCP scenarios. This study shows the 2030 water development strategy to mitigate the effect of drought and water scarcity on different sectors.
{"title":"Climate change projections for Algeria: the 2030 water sector development strategy","authors":"Tarek Bouregaa","doi":"10.1108/fs-05-2021-0110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-05-2021-0110","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>The first aim of this study is to show the impact of global warming on temperature and precipitation changes in Algeria. The second objective is to exhibit the strategy planned by the country to mitigate these effects on water resources in the future.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>This research assesses the expected changes in temperature, precipitation and SPEI index, over Algeria (16 weather stations), between two horizons (2030, 2050), by using an ensemble of 16 general circulation models under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>More warming and drought will be experienced under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6 scenario. The highest warming is observed at the Southern stations. However, the lowest precipitation is projected in the western stations. The results of SPEI calculation indicate that the severity of drought spread progressively across time and space. The highest values were observed over 2050 with values varied between 0.15 and −2.08 under RCP2.6 scenario, and range from −0.73 to −2.63 under RCP8.5. These results indicate that Algeria is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change on water resources, which stressed the need to develop a strategy against this situation.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>This study is one of the first to simulate the future climate changes over 16 Algerian weather stations by using an average of 16 general circulation models data, under two RCP scenarios. This study shows the 2030 water development strategy to mitigate the effect of drought and water scarcity on different sectors.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":51620,"journal":{"name":"Foresight","volume":"250 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138506655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced human society; statistics have shown many countries ended 2020 with minimal or even negative economic growth. This pandemic proved that development biased to economic issues without considering other factors such as social and environmental is not sustainable, and it can even be the source of the crisis. This paper aims to discover plausible alternative futures at the macrolevel where nations, businesses and societies can change routines, and approach to a better peaceful future. Design/methodology/approach To accomplish this, trends emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic are studied and some uncertainties are identified. At the intersections of uncertainties, scenarios are shaped based on the Global Business Network (GBN) methodology. GBN helps to draw macrolevel images about plausible futures. The main uncertainties rose from three different but interconnected natures including: approach to the globalization (social perspective), approach to the concept of value (business perspective) and approach to the governance (states/governance perspective). Each uncertainty can take two extreme alternatives; consequently, eight scenario spaces with different probability are formed by the intersection of alternatives. Then the most favorable scenario is introduced and strategies are proposed to achieve a better future. Findings In the current paradigm in which countries will sacrifice the environment for economic growth in the race to rapidly rebuild their economy, concerns for the post-COVID-19 will continue to mount. While, in the favorable scenario, value creation is sought in sustainable development. This means deviation from a favorable scenario to achieve short-term goals is completely predictable. Although we have learned that the COVID-19 pandemic is controllable and manageable as time goes by, but no effort or commitment has been seen in the governments to eradicate the COVID-19 sources (at least till today). Originality/value The main originality of this research appeared in the practical aspect. This paper analyzes and projects scenarios at the global level and studies challenges that societies, governments and businesses are facing in the modern world with biased development paradigms. Moreover, different viewpoints to deal with global crisis are assessed and criticized.
{"title":"Global scenarios under crises: the case of post COVID-19 era","authors":"R. Hafezi, Pardis Asemi","doi":"10.1108/fs-12-2021-0248","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-12-2021-0248","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced human society; statistics have shown many countries ended 2020 with minimal or even negative economic growth. This pandemic proved that development biased to economic issues without considering other factors such as social and environmental is not sustainable, and it can even be the source of the crisis. This paper aims to discover plausible alternative futures at the macrolevel where nations, businesses and societies can change routines, and approach to a better peaceful future.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000To accomplish this, trends emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic are studied and some uncertainties are identified. At the intersections of uncertainties, scenarios are shaped based on the Global Business Network (GBN) methodology. GBN helps to draw macrolevel images about plausible futures. The main uncertainties rose from three different but interconnected natures including: approach to the globalization (social perspective), approach to the concept of value (business perspective) and approach to the governance (states/governance perspective). Each uncertainty can take two extreme alternatives; consequently, eight scenario spaces with different probability are formed by the intersection of alternatives. Then the most favorable scenario is introduced and strategies are proposed to achieve a better future.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000In the current paradigm in which countries will sacrifice the environment for economic growth in the race to rapidly rebuild their economy, concerns for the post-COVID-19 will continue to mount. While, in the favorable scenario, value creation is sought in sustainable development. This means deviation from a favorable scenario to achieve short-term goals is completely predictable. Although we have learned that the COVID-19 pandemic is controllable and manageable as time goes by, but no effort or commitment has been seen in the governments to eradicate the COVID-19 sources (at least till today).\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The main originality of this research appeared in the practical aspect. This paper analyzes and projects scenarios at the global level and studies challenges that societies, governments and businesses are facing in the modern world with biased development paradigms. Moreover, different viewpoints to deal with global crisis are assessed and criticized.\u0000","PeriodicalId":51620,"journal":{"name":"Foresight","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42120559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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