During the COVIDpandemic, governments undertook large fiscal interventions—initially to support households and firms during mandated shutdowns and then, as the need for social distancing abated, to revive economic activity. Beginning in early 2020, the US government passed a sequence of bills to provide COVID support, totaling some $5.8 trillion and increasing the federal debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio from 107% in 2019 to 136% in 2021. Governments in Europe similarly enacted an ambitious set of fiscal policies, including an expansion of social safety nets, loan guarantees to firms to protect workers and jobs, and expanded flexibility in national and local debt limits. Over the same 2019– 21 period, euro area government debt increased from 84% to 96% of GDP (International Monetary Fund, n.d.). The debt figures for the euro area as a whole mask large differences across Europe, as the countries hardest hit by the pandemic (such as Spain and Italy) saw debt increases comparable to that of the United States. Relative to the United States, European governments tended to provide more above-the-line support such as loan guarantees, whereas US fiscal interventions relied more heavily on direct transfer payments to individuals. The focus ofAggarwal et al. is the transmission of these unprecedented, COVID-related fiscal expenditures across the set of advanced economies. The paper argues that debt-financed transfers during COVID resulted in predictable changes in the current account that persist over time. Countries that made larger-than-average transfers tended to run current account surpluses, whereas those below the average ran deficits. In the
{"title":"Comment","authors":"L. Tesar","doi":"10.1086/723588","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/723588","url":null,"abstract":"During the COVIDpandemic, governments undertook large fiscal interventions—initially to support households and firms during mandated shutdowns and then, as the need for social distancing abated, to revive economic activity. Beginning in early 2020, the US government passed a sequence of bills to provide COVID support, totaling some $5.8 trillion and increasing the federal debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio from 107% in 2019 to 136% in 2021. Governments in Europe similarly enacted an ambitious set of fiscal policies, including an expansion of social safety nets, loan guarantees to firms to protect workers and jobs, and expanded flexibility in national and local debt limits. Over the same 2019– 21 period, euro area government debt increased from 84% to 96% of GDP (International Monetary Fund, n.d.). The debt figures for the euro area as a whole mask large differences across Europe, as the countries hardest hit by the pandemic (such as Spain and Italy) saw debt increases comparable to that of the United States. Relative to the United States, European governments tended to provide more above-the-line support such as loan guarantees, whereas US fiscal interventions relied more heavily on direct transfer payments to individuals. The focus ofAggarwal et al. is the transmission of these unprecedented, COVID-related fiscal expenditures across the set of advanced economies. The paper argues that debt-financed transfers during COVID resulted in predictable changes in the current account that persist over time. Countries that made larger-than-average transfers tended to run current account surpluses, whereas those below the average ran deficits. In the","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"37 1","pages":"423 - 431"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43270345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-01Epub Date: 2022-04-29DOI: 10.1261/rna.079101.122
Minh Ngoc Le, Cong Truc Le, Tuan Anh Nguyen
Hairpin-containing pre-miRNAs, produced from pri-miRNAs, are precursors of miRNAs (microRNAs) that play essential roles in gene expression and various human diseases. Current qPCR-based methods used to quantify pre-miRNAs are not effective to discriminate between pre-miRNAs and their parental pri-miRNAs. Here, we developed the intramolecular ligation method (iLIME) to quantify and sequence pre-miRNAs specifically. This method utilizes T4 RNA ligase 1 to convert pre-miRNAs into circularized RNAs, allowing us to design PCR primers to quantify pre-miRNAs, but not their parental pri-miRNAs. In addition, the iLIME also enables us to sequence the ends of pre-miRNAs using next-generation sequencing. Therefore, this method offers a simple and effective way to quantify and sequence pre-miRNAs, so it will be highly beneficial for investigating pre-miRNAs when addressing research questions and medical applications.
{"title":"Intramolecular ligation method (iLIME) for pre-miRNA quantification and sequencing.","authors":"Minh Ngoc Le, Cong Truc Le, Tuan Anh Nguyen","doi":"10.1261/rna.079101.122","DOIUrl":"10.1261/rna.079101.122","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Hairpin-containing pre-miRNAs, produced from pri-miRNAs, are precursors of miRNAs (microRNAs) that play essential roles in gene expression and various human diseases. Current qPCR-based methods used to quantify pre-miRNAs are not effective to discriminate between pre-miRNAs and their parental pri-miRNAs. Here, we developed the intramolecular ligation method (iLIME) to quantify and sequence pre-miRNAs specifically. This method utilizes T4 RNA ligase 1 to convert pre-miRNAs into circularized RNAs, allowing us to design PCR primers to quantify pre-miRNAs, but not their parental pri-miRNAs. In addition, the iLIME also enables us to sequence the ends of pre-miRNAs using next-generation sequencing. Therefore, this method offers a simple and effective way to quantify and sequence pre-miRNAs, so it will be highly beneficial for investigating pre-miRNAs when addressing research questions and medical applications.</p>","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"5 1","pages":"1028-1038"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9202589/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83260254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the relevance of these monetary policy surprises as instruments, especially for estimating the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks. For example, monetary policy surprises are correlated with macroeconomic and financial data that is publicly available prior to the FOMC announcement. We address these concerns in two ways: First, we expand the set of monetary policy announcements to include speeches by the Fed Chair, which essentially doubles the number and importance of announcements in our dataset. Second, we explain the predictability of the monetary policy surprises in terms of the “Fed response to news” channel of Bauer and Swanson (2021) and account for it by orthogonalizing the surprises with respect to macroeconomic and financial data. Our subsequent reassessment of the effects of monetary policy yields two key results: First, estimates of the high-frequency effects on financial markets are largely unchanged. Second, estimates of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy are substantially larger and more significant than what most previous empirical studies have found.
{"title":"A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification","authors":"M. Bauer, Eric T. Swanson","doi":"10.1086/723574","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/723574","url":null,"abstract":"High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the relevance of these monetary policy surprises as instruments, especially for estimating the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks. For example, monetary policy surprises are correlated with macroeconomic and financial data that is publicly available prior to the FOMC announcement. We address these concerns in two ways: First, we expand the set of monetary policy announcements to include speeches by the Fed Chair, which essentially doubles the number and importance of announcements in our dataset. Second, we explain the predictability of the monetary policy surprises in terms of the “Fed response to news” channel of Bauer and Swanson (2021) and account for it by orthogonalizing the surprises with respect to macroeconomic and financial data. Our subsequent reassessment of the effects of monetary policy yields two key results: First, estimates of the high-frequency effects on financial markets are largely unchanged. Second, estimates of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy are substantially larger and more significant than what most previous empirical studies have found.","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"37 1","pages":"87 - 155"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48865276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I study a search equilibrium model of the labor market in which workers have stubborn beliefs about their labor market prospects, i.e. beliefs about their probability of (cid:133)nding a job and the wage they will earn that do not respond to aggregate (cid:135)uctuations in fundamentals. I show that, when workers have stubborn beliefs, the response of the wage bargained by a (cid:133)rm and a worker to aggregate shocks is dampened. As a result, the response of labor market tightness, job-(cid:133)nding probability, unemployment and vacancies to aggregate (cid:135)uctuations is ampli(cid:133)ed. I show that stubborn beliefs generate cyclical ine¢ ciencies in the labor market that can be corrected with countercyclical employment subsidies. I (cid:133)nd that the response of the labor market to negative shocks is the same even if only a small fraction of workers has stubborn beliefs. In contrast, if the fraction of workers with stubborn beliefs is small, the response of the labor market to positive shocks is approximately the same as under rational expectations.
{"title":"Stubborn Beliefs in Search Equilibrium","authors":"G. Menzio","doi":"10.1086/723582","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/723582","url":null,"abstract":"I study a search equilibrium model of the labor market in which workers have stubborn beliefs about their labor market prospects, i.e. beliefs about their probability of (cid:133)nding a job and the wage they will earn that do not respond to aggregate (cid:135)uctuations in fundamentals. I show that, when workers have stubborn beliefs, the response of the wage bargained by a (cid:133)rm and a worker to aggregate shocks is dampened. As a result, the response of labor market tightness, job-(cid:133)nding probability, unemployment and vacancies to aggregate (cid:135)uctuations is ampli(cid:133)ed. I show that stubborn beliefs generate cyclical ine¢ ciencies in the labor market that can be corrected with countercyclical employment subsidies. I (cid:133)nd that the response of the labor market to negative shocks is the same even if only a small fraction of workers has stubborn beliefs. In contrast, if the fraction of workers with stubborn beliefs is small, the response of the labor market to positive shocks is approximately the same as under rational expectations.","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"37 1","pages":"239 - 297"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47868430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The authors develop a climate-economy framework whose main purpose is to illustrate the importance of taking “the unknown” seriously in this area. More precisely, the paper considers risk, model ambiguity, and model misspecification. The focus is on the decision problem of a plannerwhose preferences embody uncertainty aversion. That is, amarket outcome is not considered. The key contribution of the paper is to propose a framework—that is, methods useful for addressing this kind of issue—and then to apply it to three examples. None of the examples can be viewed as full-fledged, quantitative settings, so it is difficult to draw concrete policy conclusions from them. At the same time, they illustrate possible magnitudes that could arise. Overall it is an impressive paper. My commentswill be organized into three sections: Iwill discuss the broad motivation for focusing on uncertainty, I will comment on the specific modeling approach, and I will make concluding remarks.
{"title":"Comment","authors":"Per Krusell","doi":"10.1086/718670","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718670","url":null,"abstract":"The authors develop a climate-economy framework whose main purpose is to illustrate the importance of taking “the unknown” seriously in this area. More precisely, the paper considers risk, model ambiguity, and model misspecification. The focus is on the decision problem of a plannerwhose preferences embody uncertainty aversion. That is, amarket outcome is not considered. The key contribution of the paper is to propose a framework—that is, methods useful for addressing this kind of issue—and then to apply it to three examples. None of the examples can be viewed as full-fledged, quantitative settings, so it is difficult to draw concrete policy conclusions from them. At the same time, they illustrate possible magnitudes that could arise. Overall it is an impressive paper. My commentswill be organized into three sections: Iwill discuss the broad motivation for focusing on uncertainty, I will comment on the specific modeling approach, and I will make concluding remarks.","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"36 1","pages":"329 - 334"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46512205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Barnett, Brock, and Hansen build a theoretical and quantitative framework to incorporate concepts of uncertainty and ambiguity aversion to climate policy modeling. Their primary focus is on building a tractable dynamic model that includes uncertainty about carbon dynamics, temperature dynamics, and damage functions in a parsimonious way. Their model features state-of-the-art tools in asset pricing with a continuoustimemodel, emphasizing specific processes of uncertainty, such as regime changes (jump processes) and misspecified Brownian increments. This model extends the authors’ previous work (Barnett, Brock, and Hansen 2020). Climate carbon and temperature dynamics follow scientific inputs that combine various climatemodels (Joos et al. 2013). The static economic game is simple, focused on investment and consumption choices over time. There are no explicit prices. The use of emissions in production, which are costly from a climate-change perspective, largely determines the shadow price of consumption. The paper presented by Barnett et al. is a serious attempt at modeling uncertainty from a mathematical point of view. A comprehensive treatment of uncertainty surrounding climate change, such as the one proposed in this paper, seems warranted. I agree that there are significant uncertainties to be studied, particularly regarding the ability of humanity to adapt and mitigate the change (policy and economic uncertainty) as well as surrounding the possibility of major tipping points (Cai et al. 2015; Lemoine and Traeger 2016). Indeed, the authors find that uncertainty
Barnett、Brock和Hansen建立了一个理论和定量框架，将不确定性和模糊性厌恶概念纳入气候政策建模。他们的主要重点是建立一个易于处理的动态模型，其中包括碳动力学、温度动力学和损伤函数的不确定性。他们的模型采用了最先进的资产定价工具和连续模型，强调了不确定性的具体过程，如制度变化(跳跃过程)和错误指定的布朗增量。该模型扩展了作者之前的工作(Barnett, Brock, and Hansen 2020)。气候碳和温度动态遵循结合各种气候模型的科学输入(Joos et al. 2013)。静态经济博弈很简单，关注的是一段时间内的投资和消费选择。没有明确的价格。从气候变化的角度来看，在生产中使用排放物的成本很高，这在很大程度上决定了消费的影子价格。Barnett等人提出的论文是从数学角度对不确定性建模的认真尝试。对围绕气候变化的不确定性的综合处理，如本文中提出的，似乎是有必要的。我同意有很大的不确定性需要研究，特别是关于人类适应和减缓变化的能力(政策和经济的不确定性)，以及围绕主要临界点的可能性(Cai et al. 2015;Lemoine and Traeger 2016)。事实上，作者发现了这种不确定性
{"title":"Comment","authors":"M. Reguant","doi":"10.1086/718669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718669","url":null,"abstract":"Barnett, Brock, and Hansen build a theoretical and quantitative framework to incorporate concepts of uncertainty and ambiguity aversion to climate policy modeling. Their primary focus is on building a tractable dynamic model that includes uncertainty about carbon dynamics, temperature dynamics, and damage functions in a parsimonious way. Their model features state-of-the-art tools in asset pricing with a continuoustimemodel, emphasizing specific processes of uncertainty, such as regime changes (jump processes) and misspecified Brownian increments. This model extends the authors’ previous work (Barnett, Brock, and Hansen 2020). Climate carbon and temperature dynamics follow scientific inputs that combine various climatemodels (Joos et al. 2013). The static economic game is simple, focused on investment and consumption choices over time. There are no explicit prices. The use of emissions in production, which are costly from a climate-change perspective, largely determines the shadow price of consumption. The paper presented by Barnett et al. is a serious attempt at modeling uncertainty from a mathematical point of view. A comprehensive treatment of uncertainty surrounding climate change, such as the one proposed in this paper, seems warranted. I agree that there are significant uncertainties to be studied, particularly regarding the ability of humanity to adapt and mitigate the change (policy and economic uncertainty) as well as surrounding the possibility of major tipping points (Cai et al. 2015; Lemoine and Traeger 2016). Indeed, the authors find that uncertainty","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"36 1","pages":"321 - 328"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47061556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Daron Acemoglu opened the discussion by recognizing the importance of the topic. Then, in agreement with the discussants, he argued for a number of potentially fruitful extensions of the model. First, he expressed the desirability ofwidening the scope of the analysis to include issues such as irreversibility and tipping points. He added that it would be useful to jointly analyze emissions and mitigation actions, which are themselves uncertain or subject to uncertain learning. In the presence of uncertainty, it might be optimal to be conservative in emissions butmore experimental in mitigation policies such as investment in renewable energy and carbon sequestration. This is because the latter act as insurancemechanisms. Mar Reguant expressed concern that in the current model, dire scenarios can be avoided by losing only 20% of utility, and this seems infeasible. Lars Hansen agreed that he and his collaborators look forward to pushing the analysis in the ways mentioned and in other directions, while preserving tractability. The point of this paper is to argue for taking a broader approach to uncertainty than is typical in this and other literatures and to show that this can be quantitatively important. In regard to tipping points in particular, Hansen added that the introduction of a probabilistic structure on tipping points opens up new research challenges by pushing beyondpure riskmodels to amore nuanced approach that recognizes the limited knowledge of the timing and magnitude of such events. The discussion then centered around the issue of discounting. James Stock pointed out that implementing a stochastic approach to discounting under uncertainty is a complex procedure that requires information on outcomes of covariances and consumption paths, which might
{"title":"Discussion","authors":"D. Acemoglu","doi":"10.1086/718671","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718671","url":null,"abstract":"Daron Acemoglu opened the discussion by recognizing the importance of the topic. Then, in agreement with the discussants, he argued for a number of potentially fruitful extensions of the model. First, he expressed the desirability ofwidening the scope of the analysis to include issues such as irreversibility and tipping points. He added that it would be useful to jointly analyze emissions and mitigation actions, which are themselves uncertain or subject to uncertain learning. In the presence of uncertainty, it might be optimal to be conservative in emissions butmore experimental in mitigation policies such as investment in renewable energy and carbon sequestration. This is because the latter act as insurancemechanisms. Mar Reguant expressed concern that in the current model, dire scenarios can be avoided by losing only 20% of utility, and this seems infeasible. Lars Hansen agreed that he and his collaborators look forward to pushing the analysis in the ways mentioned and in other directions, while preserving tractability. The point of this paper is to argue for taking a broader approach to uncertainty than is typical in this and other literatures and to show that this can be quantitatively important. In regard to tipping points in particular, Hansen added that the introduction of a probabilistic structure on tipping points opens up new research challenges by pushing beyondpure riskmodels to amore nuanced approach that recognizes the limited knowledge of the timing and magnitude of such events. The discussion then centered around the issue of discounting. James Stock pointed out that implementing a stochastic approach to discounting under uncertainty is a complex procedure that requires information on outcomes of covariances and consumption paths, which might","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"36 1","pages":"335 - 336"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45825036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this provocative paper, Hall and Kudlyak show that during a typical recession in the United States from 1949 to 2019, a short-lived burst of job loss explains much of the rapid increase in the unemployment rate. During the subsequent expansion, unemployment declines comparatively slowly and steadily, primarily due to a sharp and persistent decline in the job finding rate, both for the initial group of job losers and for other workers who became unemployed only later in the business cycle. Hall and Kudlyak argue that the elevated jobless rate for the latter group is evidence that unemployment is “contagious” or “infectious.” For the most part, I will not take issue with their facts, although I will make the (well-known) observation that the 2020 pandemic recession and subsequent expansion featured the fastest increase in unemployment on record, followed by the fastest decrease on record. Although this recession was different in many ways from past ones, the fact that unemployment fell so quickly during the early stages of this expansionmay be useful for diagnosing why unemployment declined so slowly during prior expansions. I will focusmy attention on the claim that unemployment is contagious or infectious. Hall and Kudlyak are very clear about what they mean by this: “We consider negative feedback from high unemployment to the job finding rate as a key mechanism behind the slow unemployment recoveries.” The function g(u) in equation (14) exemplifies this logic. SectionVIII of their paper sketches a number of endogenousmechanisms that cangenerate such feedback. Iwill not try to critique each—or indeed any—
{"title":"Comment","authors":"R. Shimer","doi":"10.1086/718655","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718655","url":null,"abstract":"In this provocative paper, Hall and Kudlyak show that during a typical recession in the United States from 1949 to 2019, a short-lived burst of job loss explains much of the rapid increase in the unemployment rate. During the subsequent expansion, unemployment declines comparatively slowly and steadily, primarily due to a sharp and persistent decline in the job finding rate, both for the initial group of job losers and for other workers who became unemployed only later in the business cycle. Hall and Kudlyak argue that the elevated jobless rate for the latter group is evidence that unemployment is “contagious” or “infectious.” For the most part, I will not take issue with their facts, although I will make the (well-known) observation that the 2020 pandemic recession and subsequent expansion featured the fastest increase in unemployment on record, followed by the fastest decrease on record. Although this recession was different in many ways from past ones, the fact that unemployment fell so quickly during the early stages of this expansionmay be useful for diagnosing why unemployment declined so slowly during prior expansions. I will focusmy attention on the claim that unemployment is contagious or infectious. Hall and Kudlyak are very clear about what they mean by this: “We consider negative feedback from high unemployment to the job finding rate as a key mechanism behind the slow unemployment recoveries.” The function g(u) in equation (14) exemplifies this logic. SectionVIII of their paper sketches a number of endogenousmechanisms that cangenerate such feedback. Iwill not try to critique each—or indeed any—","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"36 1","pages":"56 - 67"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48057167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In recent years, various Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD) countries have implemented reforms targeting work incentives directed at older workers. So understanding how such reforms affect the labor market is crucial. I see this interesting and important paper by Richard Rogerson and JohannaWalleniusas as a first step in an exciting new research agenda. In this paper, the authors investigate the link between the labor market policy reforms targeting older workers and these workers’ employment rates. The paper presents an extremely useful synthesis that brings together findings from different countries, and it suggests an important avenue for further research. The paper contains numerous insights, and below I discuss the main argument. First, the authors document that the employment rate of men aged 55–64 has displayed aU-shaped pattern over the last 4 decades. Interestingly (and somewhat surprisingly), this pattern is common across many advanced economies, hinting that a common explanation could be responsible for it. At the same time, the reversal’s magnitude varies across countries. The explanation the authors put forth is based on three steps. First, the authors argue for the importance of “institutions” that gave rise to provisions that favored a reduction in employment rate of this older age group inmany countries in the 1970s and 1980s. Second, they suggest there was a mean-reverting aggregate shock that led to a recovery in the employment
{"title":"Comment","authors":"Nir Jaimovich","doi":"10.1086/718665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718665","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, various Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD) countries have implemented reforms targeting work incentives directed at older workers. So understanding how such reforms affect the labor market is crucial. I see this interesting and important paper by Richard Rogerson and JohannaWalleniusas as a first step in an exciting new research agenda. In this paper, the authors investigate the link between the labor market policy reforms targeting older workers and these workers’ employment rates. The paper presents an extremely useful synthesis that brings together findings from different countries, and it suggests an important avenue for further research. The paper contains numerous insights, and below I discuss the main argument. First, the authors document that the employment rate of men aged 55–64 has displayed aU-shaped pattern over the last 4 decades. Interestingly (and somewhat surprisingly), this pattern is common across many advanced economies, hinting that a common explanation could be responsible for it. At the same time, the reversal’s magnitude varies across countries. The explanation the authors put forth is based on three steps. First, the authors argue for the importance of “institutions” that gave rise to provisions that favored a reduction in employment rate of this older age group inmany countries in the 1970s and 1980s. Second, they suggest there was a mean-reverting aggregate shock that led to a recovery in the employment","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"36 1","pages":"217 - 233"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47171026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Neoclassical growth theory posits that countries with access to identical technologies should converge to a common income level. However, an important literature, exemplified by Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992), tested this prediction using cross-country data from 1960 to 1990 and instead found conditional convergence. That is, poor countries converged in growth to rich countries only after conditioning on policies, institutions, and other country-specific factors such as human capital. “Converging to Convergence” extends the underlying data series up to 2015, reestimates cross-country growth regressions, and documents a striking change. Since the mid-1980s, there has been a trend toward unconditional convergence culminating in absolute convergence since 2000 (roughly 1% per annum). The paper examines convergence in correlates of growth, andfinds that enhanced Solow fundamentals (s, n, h), short-run correlates (political and financial institutions, fiscal policy), and culture all show b-convergence. This evidence, the authors suggest, is supportive of “institutional homogenization” contributing to absolute convergence: short-run growth coefficients diminished because convergence of “development-favored” policies outpaced that of income. Importantly, the same is not true of Solow fundamentals. The paper is based on an impressive collation of data sets and careful standardization of conditioning variables. Using the original empirical specification developed in Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992), it documents
{"title":"Comment","authors":"R. Pande, Nils Enevoldsen","doi":"10.1086/718673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718673","url":null,"abstract":"Neoclassical growth theory posits that countries with access to identical technologies should converge to a common income level. However, an important literature, exemplified by Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992), tested this prediction using cross-country data from 1960 to 1990 and instead found conditional convergence. That is, poor countries converged in growth to rich countries only after conditioning on policies, institutions, and other country-specific factors such as human capital. “Converging to Convergence” extends the underlying data series up to 2015, reestimates cross-country growth regressions, and documents a striking change. Since the mid-1980s, there has been a trend toward unconditional convergence culminating in absolute convergence since 2000 (roughly 1% per annum). The paper examines convergence in correlates of growth, andfinds that enhanced Solow fundamentals (s, n, h), short-run correlates (political and financial institutions, fiscal policy), and culture all show b-convergence. This evidence, the authors suggest, is supportive of “institutional homogenization” contributing to absolute convergence: short-run growth coefficients diminished because convergence of “development-favored” policies outpaced that of income. Importantly, the same is not true of Solow fundamentals. The paper is based on an impressive collation of data sets and careful standardization of conditioning variables. Using the original empirical specification developed in Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992), it documents","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"36 1","pages":"413 - 424"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42108048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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