Mark Gertler and Martin Eichenbaum followed up on comments made by one of the discussants, BenBernanke. Gertler noted that the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate might have played its biggest role from late 2008 to 2010, before quantitative easing and forward guidance produced their full effects. This period was also characterized by a rise in aggregate uncertainty, he argued, which might have interacted with the binding ZLB. Gertler identified two channels through which increaseduncertainty couldhave operated. First, increasedprecautionary savings further reduce the neutral interest rate, bringing it closer to the ZLB. Second, higher uncertainty raises the spread between shortand long-term interest rates, because the ZLB creates an option value by putting a lower bound on future short-term rates. Gertler encouraged the authors to quantify these channels using theirmodel. Eichenbaumpointed out that the binding ZLB took place during a period of large changes in fiscal spending.According to theHutchins Center Fiscal ImpactMeasure, fiscal policywas strongly expansionaryuntil 2011, he argued, before turning very contractionary until 2014. Eichenbaum wondered whether the authors could investigate the interplay between fiscal policy and the ZLB by repeating their empirical exercise using the preand post-2011 subsamples. He admitted that theremight be power issues with such a short sample. The authors acknowledged that strongly countercyclical fiscal policy could in theory explain the empirical irrelevance of the ZLB that they document in the paper. However, this explanation is hard to reconcile with their evidence on the response of long-term interest rates. Fiscal policy alone could not explain why the behavior of these rates did not change during the ZLBperiod, they argued. This is suggestive of a dominant role for monetary policy in the form of quantitative easing and forward guidance, according to the authors.
{"title":"Discussion","authors":"M. Gertler","doi":"10.1086/707180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707180","url":null,"abstract":"Mark Gertler and Martin Eichenbaum followed up on comments made by one of the discussants, BenBernanke. Gertler noted that the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate might have played its biggest role from late 2008 to 2010, before quantitative easing and forward guidance produced their full effects. This period was also characterized by a rise in aggregate uncertainty, he argued, which might have interacted with the binding ZLB. Gertler identified two channels through which increaseduncertainty couldhave operated. First, increasedprecautionary savings further reduce the neutral interest rate, bringing it closer to the ZLB. Second, higher uncertainty raises the spread between shortand long-term interest rates, because the ZLB creates an option value by putting a lower bound on future short-term rates. Gertler encouraged the authors to quantify these channels using theirmodel. Eichenbaumpointed out that the binding ZLB took place during a period of large changes in fiscal spending.According to theHutchins Center Fiscal ImpactMeasure, fiscal policywas strongly expansionaryuntil 2011, he argued, before turning very contractionary until 2014. Eichenbaum wondered whether the authors could investigate the interplay between fiscal policy and the ZLB by repeating their empirical exercise using the preand post-2011 subsamples. He admitted that theremight be power issues with such a short sample. The authors acknowledged that strongly countercyclical fiscal policy could in theory explain the empirical irrelevance of the ZLB that they document in the paper. However, this explanation is hard to reconcile with their evidence on the response of long-term interest rates. Fiscal policy alone could not explain why the behavior of these rates did not change during the ZLBperiod, they argued. This is suggestive of a dominant role for monetary policy in the form of quantitative easing and forward guidance, according to the authors.","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"34 1","pages":"194 - 197"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/707180","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44483468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Valerie Ramey opened the general discussion by praising the paper as a good illustration of how theory and empiricism can inform each other. In particular, identification strategies rooted in theory are essential to good empirical work, she argued. Ramey discussed two identification issues when it comes to estimating Phillips curves. First, cost-push shocks are correlatedwith the explanatory variable, that is, output. Second,monetary policy is endogenous. The paper carefully addresses the second issue by exploiting variations at the regional level, according to Ramey. However, the first issue persists and the paper’s estimates should be interpreted as lower bounds on the slope of the Phillips curve, she argued. Ramey encouraged the authors to use existing state-level data sets on demand shocks, as in Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson (“Fiscal Stimulus in aMonetary Union: Evidence fromUSRegions,”American Economic Review 104, no. 3 [2014]: 753–92), to address the first issue. The authorswere very much in agreement with Ramey’s comment. Frederic Mishkin seconded the authors’ conclusions by referring to recentworkof his. PeterHooper, Frederic S.Mishkin, andAmir Sufi (“Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or Is It Just Hibernating?” [Working Paper no. 25792, NBER, Cambridge, MA, May 2019]) found that the Phillips curve is flatter for periods during which monetary policy is more effective at stabilizing inflation. Indeed, the objective and the control variable should be uncorrelated when monetary policy is set optimally, he argued. Hooper et al. (“Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy”) exploit regional variations—as in the authors’ paper—to identify the relationship between unemployment and inflation. The identification assumption is that monetary policy is exogenous to regional shocks. Regional variations have also been exploited in the context of fiscal policy, Mishkin noted, citing again the work of Nakamura and Steinsson (“Fiscal Stimulus in a
{"title":"Discussion","authors":"V. Ramey","doi":"10.1086/707184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707184","url":null,"abstract":"Valerie Ramey opened the general discussion by praising the paper as a good illustration of how theory and empiricism can inform each other. In particular, identification strategies rooted in theory are essential to good empirical work, she argued. Ramey discussed two identification issues when it comes to estimating Phillips curves. First, cost-push shocks are correlatedwith the explanatory variable, that is, output. Second,monetary policy is endogenous. The paper carefully addresses the second issue by exploiting variations at the regional level, according to Ramey. However, the first issue persists and the paper’s estimates should be interpreted as lower bounds on the slope of the Phillips curve, she argued. Ramey encouraged the authors to use existing state-level data sets on demand shocks, as in Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson (“Fiscal Stimulus in aMonetary Union: Evidence fromUSRegions,”American Economic Review 104, no. 3 [2014]: 753–92), to address the first issue. The authorswere very much in agreement with Ramey’s comment. Frederic Mishkin seconded the authors’ conclusions by referring to recentworkof his. PeterHooper, Frederic S.Mishkin, andAmir Sufi (“Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or Is It Just Hibernating?” [Working Paper no. 25792, NBER, Cambridge, MA, May 2019]) found that the Phillips curve is flatter for periods during which monetary policy is more effective at stabilizing inflation. Indeed, the objective and the control variable should be uncorrelated when monetary policy is set optimally, he argued. Hooper et al. (“Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy”) exploit regional variations—as in the authors’ paper—to identify the relationship between unemployment and inflation. The identification assumption is that monetary policy is exogenous to regional shocks. Regional variations have also been exploited in the context of fiscal policy, Mishkin noted, citing again the work of Nakamura and Steinsson (“Fiscal Stimulus in a","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"34 1","pages":"280 - 283"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/707184","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44786119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Martin Eichenbaum interpreted the rising concentration in the banking industry through the lens of the authors’ framework. He noted that several regional banks in the Southwest had recentlymerged to forma superregional bank. According to banking professionals, increasing returns play an important role in this industry, he said. Eichenbaum argued that this form of concentration seems consistent with increasing sunk costs or barriers to entry. He asked the authors about their thoughts on the subject. The authors clarified that most of their analysis excludes financial services. They agreed that a rise in barriers to entry could explainmergers in the banking industry, together with an increase in efficiency from mergers. They noted, however, that the evidence on increasing returns to scale in the banking industry remains mostly inconclusive. The emergence of “fintech”might potentially create more scope for such efficiency gains, they argued. The authors emphasized the role of lobbying by the banking industry. As an example, theymentioneddata portability,which allows a client to share her portfolio information with another institution to obtain financial advice. Banks defeated calls for increased data portability in the US, the authors pointed out. On the contrary, they lost in the European Union, where their lobbying power is smaller. This illustrates the role of increased lobbying for the rise in barriers to entry in the US, according to the authors. Laura Veldkamp noted that uncertain revenue streams should command riskpremiawhen investors ormanagers are risk averse. Shepointed out that markups could be the firms’ compensation for that revenue risk andmight not reflect market power at all. Veldkampwondered how the authors took this into account in their analysis. The authors said that they measure firms’ value using market values, which should address concerns related to risk premia. On the relation between firms’ value and entry into an industry, they referred to another paper of theirs. Fixing
Martin Eichenbaum通过作者框架的视角解读了银行业日益集中的现象。他指出，西南部的几家地区性银行已经重组为超级地区性银行。他表示，银行业专业人士认为，增加回报在这个行业发挥着重要作用。Eichenbaum认为，这种形式的集中似乎与不断增加的沉没成本或进入壁垒相一致。他询问了作者对这个问题的看法。作者澄清说，他们的大部分分析都不包括金融服务。他们一致认为，进入壁垒的增加可能解释了银行业的合并，以及合并效率的提高。然而，他们指出，关于银行业规模回报率增加的证据大多没有定论。他们认为，“金融科技”的出现可能会为提高效率创造更多空间。作者强调了银行业游说的作用。例如，他们提到了数据可移植性，它允许客户与另一家机构共享她的投资组合信息，以获得财务建议。作者指出，银行挫败了在美国提高数据可移植性的呼声。相反，他们在欧盟输了，因为他们的游说力量较小。根据作者的说法，这说明了增加游说对美国进入壁垒的作用。Laura Veldkamp指出，当投资者或管理者厌恶风险时，不确定的收入流应该具有风险溢价。谢泼德指出，加价可能是公司对收入风险的补偿，可能根本不能反映市场力量。维尔德坎普想知道作者是如何在分析中考虑到这一点的。作者表示，他们使用市场价值来衡量公司的价值，这应该解决与风险溢价相关的问题。关于企业价值与进入一个行业之间的关系，他们参考了他们的另一篇论文。固定
{"title":"Discussion","authors":"M. Eichenbaum","doi":"10.1086/707172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707172","url":null,"abstract":"Martin Eichenbaum interpreted the rising concentration in the banking industry through the lens of the authors’ framework. He noted that several regional banks in the Southwest had recentlymerged to forma superregional bank. According to banking professionals, increasing returns play an important role in this industry, he said. Eichenbaum argued that this form of concentration seems consistent with increasing sunk costs or barriers to entry. He asked the authors about their thoughts on the subject. The authors clarified that most of their analysis excludes financial services. They agreed that a rise in barriers to entry could explainmergers in the banking industry, together with an increase in efficiency from mergers. They noted, however, that the evidence on increasing returns to scale in the banking industry remains mostly inconclusive. The emergence of “fintech”might potentially create more scope for such efficiency gains, they argued. The authors emphasized the role of lobbying by the banking industry. As an example, theymentioneddata portability,which allows a client to share her portfolio information with another institution to obtain financial advice. Banks defeated calls for increased data portability in the US, the authors pointed out. On the contrary, they lost in the European Union, where their lobbying power is smaller. This illustrates the role of increased lobbying for the rise in barriers to entry in the US, according to the authors. Laura Veldkamp noted that uncertain revenue streams should command riskpremiawhen investors ormanagers are risk averse. Shepointed out that markups could be the firms’ compensation for that revenue risk andmight not reflect market power at all. Veldkampwondered how the authors took this into account in their analysis. The authors said that they measure firms’ value using market values, which should address concerns related to risk premia. On the relation between firms’ value and entry into an industry, they referred to another paper of theirs. Fixing","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"34 1","pages":"62 - 65"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/707172","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45341814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01Epub Date: 2019-11-08DOI: 10.1111/rda.13577
Francesca Mercati, Paula Domingo, Rolando Pasquariello, Cecilia Dall'Aglio, Alessandro Di Michele, Katia Forti, Paolo Cocci, Cristiano Boiti, Lidia Gil, Massimo Zerani, Margherita Maranesi
Freeze-drying (FD) has been exhaustively tried in several mammalian species as an alternative technique to sperm cryopreservation, but few studies have been done in rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus). The main objective of this study was to compare the protective effect of various antioxidants added to EDTA medium on structural and functional components of FD rabbit spermatozoa and on their status of global DNA methylation. FD media used were composed of basic FD medium (10 mM Tris-HCl buffer and 50 mM NaCl) supplemented with either 50 mM EDTA alone (EDTA) or added with 105 µM of rosmarinic acid (RA, EDTA-RA) or 10 µM of melatonin (MLT, EDTA-MLT). The effect of each medium on the preservation of FD spermatozoon structure was evaluated with light and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Global DNA methylation was quantified in all FD sperm samples as well as in fresh spermatozoa. Morphologically, fracture points were evidenced in the neck, mid and principal piece of the spermatozoon tail. No differences in spermatozoon fracture points were evidenced among FD treatments: intact spermatozoa were the largest (p < .01) category, whereas the most frequent (p < .01) injury was the neck fracture, resulting in tailless heads. At SEM, the head of spermatozoa showed a well-conserved shape and intact membrane in all treatments. DNA methylation status was the same in all FD treatments. In conclusion, supplementation of EDTA, EDTA-RA and EDTA-MLT during FD preserved rabbit sperm morphological integrity and methylation status as well. Therefore, the difficulty of getting viable offspring using FD semen is likely unrelated to the impact of the lyophilization process on DNA methylation and morphology of lyophilized spermatozoa.
冷冻干燥（FD）作为一种精子冷冻保存的替代技术已在多个哺乳动物物种中进行了详尽的尝试，但针对兔子（Oryctolagus cuniculus）的研究却寥寥无几。本研究的主要目的是比较添加到 EDTA 培养基中的各种抗氧化剂对冻存兔精子的结构和功能成分及其全局 DNA 甲基化状态的保护作用。所用的FD培养基由基本FD培养基（10 mM Tris-HCl缓冲液和50 mM NaCl）组成，其中单独添加50 mM EDTA（EDTA）或添加105 µM的迷迭香酸（RA，EDTA-RA）或10 µM的褪黑素（MLT，EDTA-MLT）。光镜和扫描电子显微镜（SEM）评估了每种培养基对保存 FD 精子结构的影响。对所有冻存精子样本和新鲜精子的 DNA 甲基化进行了量化。从形态上看，精子尾部的颈部、中部和主部都有断裂点。不同冷冻处理的精子断裂点没有差异：完整精子的断裂点最大（p＜0.05），而新鲜精子的断裂点最小（p＜0.05）。
{"title":"Effect of chelating and antioxidant agents on morphology and DNA methylation in freeze-drying rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) spermatozoa.","authors":"Francesca Mercati, Paula Domingo, Rolando Pasquariello, Cecilia Dall'Aglio, Alessandro Di Michele, Katia Forti, Paolo Cocci, Cristiano Boiti, Lidia Gil, Massimo Zerani, Margherita Maranesi","doi":"10.1111/rda.13577","DOIUrl":"10.1111/rda.13577","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Freeze-drying (FD) has been exhaustively tried in several mammalian species as an alternative technique to sperm cryopreservation, but few studies have been done in rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus). The main objective of this study was to compare the protective effect of various antioxidants added to EDTA medium on structural and functional components of FD rabbit spermatozoa and on their status of global DNA methylation. FD media used were composed of basic FD medium (10 mM Tris-HCl buffer and 50 mM NaCl) supplemented with either 50 mM EDTA alone (EDTA) or added with 105 µM of rosmarinic acid (RA, EDTA-RA) or 10 µM of melatonin (MLT, EDTA-MLT). The effect of each medium on the preservation of FD spermatozoon structure was evaluated with light and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Global DNA methylation was quantified in all FD sperm samples as well as in fresh spermatozoa. Morphologically, fracture points were evidenced in the neck, mid and principal piece of the spermatozoon tail. No differences in spermatozoon fracture points were evidenced among FD treatments: intact spermatozoa were the largest (p < .01) category, whereas the most frequent (p < .01) injury was the neck fracture, resulting in tailless heads. At SEM, the head of spermatozoa showed a well-conserved shape and intact membrane in all treatments. DNA methylation status was the same in all FD treatments. In conclusion, supplementation of EDTA, EDTA-RA and EDTA-MLT during FD preserved rabbit sperm morphological integrity and methylation status as well. Therefore, the difficulty of getting viable offspring using FD semen is likely unrelated to the impact of the lyophilization process on DNA methylation and morphology of lyophilized spermatozoa.</p>","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"11 1","pages":"29-37"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/rda.13577","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83270849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study the impact on the skill premium of increases in the quality of goods consumed by households (“trading up”). Our empirical work shows that high-quality goods are more intensive in skilled labor than low-quality goods and that household spending on high-quality goods rises with income. We propose a model consistent with these facts. This model accounts for the past rise in the skill premium with more plausible rates of skill-biased technical change than those required by the canonical model. It also implies that an expansion of the skilled labor force reduces the skill premium by much less than in the canonical model.
{"title":"Trading Up and the Skill Premium","authors":"Nir Jaimovich, Sergio Rebelo, Arlene Wong, Miao Zhang","doi":"10.1086/707185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707185","url":null,"abstract":"We study the impact on the skill premium of increases in the quality of goods consumed by households (“trading up”). Our empirical work shows that high-quality goods are more intensive in skilled labor than low-quality goods and that household spending on high-quality goods rises with income. We propose a model consistent with these facts. This model accounts for the past rise in the skill premium with more plausible rates of skill-biased technical change than those required by the canonical model. It also implies that an expansion of the skilled labor force reduces the skill premium by much less than in the canonical model.","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"34 1","pages":"285 - 316"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/707185","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44501077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Matías Covarrubias, G. Gutiérrez, Thomas Philippon
We study the evolution of profits, investment, and market shares in US industries over the past 40 years. During the 1990s, and at low levels of initial concentration, we find evidence of efficient concentration driven by tougher price competition, intangible investment, and increasing productivity of leaders. After 2000, however, the evidence suggests inefficient concentration, decreasing competition, and increasing barriers to entry as leaders become more entrenched and concentration is associated with lower investment, higher prices, and lower productivity growth.
{"title":"From Good to Bad Concentration? US Industries over the Past 30 Years","authors":"Matías Covarrubias, G. Gutiérrez, Thomas Philippon","doi":"10.1086/707169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707169","url":null,"abstract":"We study the evolution of profits, investment, and market shares in US industries over the past 40 years. During the 1990s, and at low levels of initial concentration, we find evidence of efficient concentration driven by tougher price competition, intangible investment, and increasing productivity of leaders. After 2000, however, the evidence suggests inefficient concentration, decreasing competition, and increasing barriers to entry as leaders become more entrenched and concentration is associated with lower investment, higher prices, and lower productivity growth.","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"34 1","pages":"1 - 46"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/707169","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41988204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Matías Covarrubias, G. Gutiérrez, Thomas Philippon
We study the evolution of profits, investment and market shares in US industries over the past 40 years. During the 1990’s, and at low levels of initial concentration, we find evidence of efficient concentration driven by tougher price competition, intangible investment, and increasing productivity of leaders. After 2000, however, the evidence suggests inefficient concentration, decreasing competition and increasing barriers to entry, as leaders become more entrenched and concentration is associated with lower investment, higher prices and lower productivity growth.
{"title":"From Good to Bad Concentration? U.S. Industries over the past 30 years","authors":"Matías Covarrubias, G. Gutiérrez, Thomas Philippon","doi":"10.3386/W25983","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25983","url":null,"abstract":"We study the evolution of profits, investment and market shares in US industries over the past 40 years. During the 1990’s, and at low levels of initial concentration, we find evidence of efficient concentration driven by tougher price competition, intangible investment, and increasing productivity of leaders. After 2000, however, the evidence suggests inefficient concentration, decreasing competition and increasing barriers to entry, as leaders become more entrenched and concentration is associated with lower investment, higher prices and lower productivity growth.","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"34 1","pages":"1-46"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3386/W25983","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45589825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chinese local governments wield their enormous political power and administrative capacity to provide “special deals” for favored private firms. We argue that China’s extraordinary economic growth comes from these special deals. Local political leaders do so because they derive personal benefits, either political or monetary, from providing special deals. Competition between local governments limits the predatory effects of special deals.
{"title":"Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics","authors":"C. Bai, Chang-tai Hsieh, Zheng Song","doi":"10.1086/707189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707189","url":null,"abstract":"Chinese local governments wield their enormous political power and administrative capacity to provide “special deals” for favored private firms. We argue that China’s extraordinary economic growth comes from these special deals. Local political leaders do so because they derive personal benefits, either political or monetary, from providing special deals. Competition between local governments limits the predatory effects of special deals.","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"34 1","pages":"341 - 379"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/707189","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49527582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s; men’s wages declined more than women’s. After documenting these changes, we use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings, but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased savings by more. Welfare losses, measured as a onetime asset compensation, are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. Lower wages explain 47%–58% of these losses, shorter life expectancies 25%–34%, and higher medical expenses account for the rest.
{"title":"The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of White, Non-College-Educated Americans Born in the 1960s","authors":"M. Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi, Fang Yang","doi":"10.1086/707173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707173","url":null,"abstract":"White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s; men’s wages declined more than women’s. After documenting these changes, we use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings, but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased savings by more. Welfare losses, measured as a onetime asset compensation, are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. Lower wages explain 47%–58% of these losses, shorter life expectancies 25%–34%, and higher medical expenses account for the rest.","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"34 1","pages":"67 - 115"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/707173","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47606259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The authors opened the discussion by addressing three concerns raised by the discussants. First, they pointed out their model assumes that asset holdings and liabilities grow at an exogenous rate. As a consequence, the balance sheet of banks is inelastic with respect to government guarantees, and the value of deposit insurance is not competed away, as noted by Lawrence Summers during his discussion. The authors agreed that changes in regulation or government guarantees could affect the size of the banking sector and that this issue is important for policy making. They argued that this response is slow due to adjustment costs in the banking sector, and the market-to-book ratio is expected to increase during the transition. Second, the authors acknowledged that both the reaction time before bailout and the presence of jump risk are key determinants of the value of government guarantees, as emphasized by Summers. Their calibration assumes a market-to-book ratio of 2, corresponding to that observed during the period of interest, and a risk-neutral probability of a crisis of 5%. With a reaction time of a year, their model predicts a government bailout worth half of book equity. They noted that with a precrisis book equity value of banks around $1.1 trillion, this amounts to a subsidy of $550 billion. In the authors’ view, this figure is comparable to the actual government support during crisis,which speaks in favor of a 1-year delay before bailout. Third, the authors confirmed that theirmodel abstracts from interest rate risk, as highlighted by Juliane Begenau as part of her discussion. They argued that such risk does not generate large enough losses over the course of a year to rationalize the value of government guarantees. Credit risk is more attractive in this respect, theymentioned, due to larger jumps and tail risk. In the authors’ opinion, the role of interest rate risk during earlier episodes, including the savings and loans crisis, was associated with longer reaction times by regulators.
{"title":"Discussion","authors":"","doi":"10.1086/700911","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700911","url":null,"abstract":"The authors opened the discussion by addressing three concerns raised by the discussants. First, they pointed out their model assumes that asset holdings and liabilities grow at an exogenous rate. As a consequence, the balance sheet of banks is inelastic with respect to government guarantees, and the value of deposit insurance is not competed away, as noted by Lawrence Summers during his discussion. The authors agreed that changes in regulation or government guarantees could affect the size of the banking sector and that this issue is important for policy making. They argued that this response is slow due to adjustment costs in the banking sector, and the market-to-book ratio is expected to increase during the transition. Second, the authors acknowledged that both the reaction time before bailout and the presence of jump risk are key determinants of the value of government guarantees, as emphasized by Summers. Their calibration assumes a market-to-book ratio of 2, corresponding to that observed during the period of interest, and a risk-neutral probability of a crisis of 5%. With a reaction time of a year, their model predicts a government bailout worth half of book equity. They noted that with a precrisis book equity value of banks around $1.1 trillion, this amounts to a subsidy of $550 billion. In the authors’ view, this figure is comparable to the actual government support during crisis,which speaks in favor of a 1-year delay before bailout. Third, the authors confirmed that theirmodel abstracts from interest rate risk, as highlighted by Juliane Begenau as part of her discussion. They argued that such risk does not generate large enough losses over the course of a year to rationalize the value of government guarantees. Credit risk is more attractive in this respect, theymentioned, due to larger jumps and tail risk. In the authors’ opinion, the role of interest rate risk during earlier episodes, including the savings and loans crisis, was associated with longer reaction times by regulators.","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"33 1","pages":"163 - 165"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/700911","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46978338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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