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Helpem Fren: Australia and the regional assistance mission to Solomon Islands 澳大利亚和所罗门群岛区域援助团
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2023.2229755
J. Corbett
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引用次数: 0
Global values or national interest? Public opinion towards foreign aid in Australia 全球价值观还是国家利益?澳大利亚对外援助的舆论
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-06-16 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2023.2223550
Danielle Chubb, I. McAllister
ABSTRACT This article examines Australian attitudes towards foreign aid and the intersection of these attitudes with broader debates around the purpose and level of the aid program. Drawing on surveys conducted over six decades, we show that the public broadly supports the principle of foreign aid, but are much less supportive of aid expenditure, especially judged against other areas of government spending. Using the 2022 Lowy Poll, we test four hypotheses to explain public support for foreign aid. The results show that both values and interests shape the public’s views of foreign aid spending. The challenge for policymakers is to craft messages about foreign aid which present aid expenditure as being relevant to both the values and interests relevant to the lives of everyday Australians.
摘要本文探讨了澳大利亚对外国援助的态度,以及这些态度与围绕援助计划目的和水平的更广泛辩论的交叉点。根据60多年来进行的调查,我们发现公众普遍支持外国援助的原则,但对援助支出的支持要少得多,尤其是与政府支出的其他领域相比。使用2022年洛伊民意调查,我们检验了四个假设来解释公众对外国援助的支持。结果表明,价值观和利益观共同影响着公众对外援助支出的看法。政策制定者面临的挑战是制定有关外国援助的信息,使援助支出与澳大利亚人日常生活的价值观和利益相关。
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引用次数: 0
Ukraine, Afghanistan and the failure of deterrence 乌克兰、阿富汗与威慑的失败
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2023.2219628
W. Maley
Russia’s 2014 seizure of the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine highlighted the limitations of a ‘rules-based’ international order in protecting a state’s territorial integrity in the face of threats to international peace and security resulting from the actions of a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. With the capacity to veto any Security Council resolution authorising ‘enforcement action’ under Article 42 of the United Nations Charter, Russian leaders only had to fear the exercise under Article 51 of Ukraine’s inherent right of individual or collective self-defence. But Ukraine was in no position to drive Russian forces from Crimea unless supported by a great power such as the United States, and as Lawrence Freedman put it, ‘President Obama made it clear that he saw no circumstances in which the United States would use armed force in connection with this crisis’ (Freedman 2019, 106). The focus of the international response would instead be on extended deterrence of future Russian aggression. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 (Birnbaum et al. 2022), it became abundantly clear that Russia had not been successfully deterred from invading its western neighbour. Debate thereafter tended to focus on two points: the extent to which moves to admit Ukraine to NATO membership, anticipated by US President George W. Bush at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, might or might not have inflamed Russian elite opinion; and the importance of building a coalition of Western states to support the Ukrainian government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, an exercise for which US President Biden on the whole received high marks. Somewhat lost in these discussions was any serious analysis of the deterrence failure that the invasion of Ukraine exposed. Yet an exploration of what deterrence means in the 21st century, and how it came to fail in the Ukrainian case, remains distinctly pertinent when one looks at other potential flashpoints such as the Middle East and East Asia. For this reason, it is worth unpacking some key elements of the idea of deterrence, and looking at what contributed to its failing in the case of Ukraine.
2014年俄罗斯对乌克兰克里米亚半岛的占领凸显了“基于规则”的国际秩序在面对联合国安理会常任理事国的行动对国际和平与安全造成的威胁时保护国家领土完整的局限性。根据《联合国宪章》(United Nations Charter)第42条,俄罗斯领导人有权否决安理会授权采取“强制行动”的任何决议,他们只需要担心乌克兰根据第51条行使其固有的单独或集体自卫权。但除非得到美国等大国的支持,否则乌克兰无法将俄罗斯军队赶出克里米亚。正如劳伦斯·弗里德曼(Lawrence Freedman)所说,“奥巴马总统明确表示,他认为美国在任何情况下都不会在这场危机中使用武力”(Freedman 2019, 106)。相反,国际社会反应的重点将是扩大对俄罗斯未来侵略的威慑。随着俄罗斯在2022年2月24日入侵乌克兰(Birnbaum et al. 2022),很明显,俄罗斯并没有成功地阻止其入侵其西部邻国。此后的辩论往往集中在两点上:美国总统乔治•w•布什(George W. Bush)在2008年布加勒斯特北约(NATO)峰会上所预期的接纳乌克兰加入北约(NATO)的举措,在多大程度上是否会激起俄罗斯精英的意见;以及建立西方国家联盟支持乌克兰总统政府的重要性,美国总统拜登在这方面总体上得到了很高的评价。这些讨论多少忽略了对入侵乌克兰所暴露出的威慑失败的认真分析。然而,当我们审视中东和东亚等其他潜在的爆发点时,探索威慑在21世纪意味着什么,以及它是如何在乌克兰事件中失败的,仍然具有明显的相关性。出于这个原因,有必要对威慑理念的一些关键要素进行分析,并研究是什么导致了它在乌克兰问题上的失败。
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引用次数: 0
The changing value of Antarctica to Australia’s security policy 南极不断变化的价值对澳大利亚安全政策的影响
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2023.2216139
Isabelle Bond, James Mortensen
ABSTRACT Antarctica is a crucial regulator of the world’s climate, and as environmental security permeates global security, using Antarctic science to better understand climate is becoming increasingly pressing. Although the Australian Government has recognised that climate change poses ‘a current and existential national security’ threat and has acknowledged Antarctica’s importance regarding the earth’s global climate system, the focus of Australia’s intelligence community pertaining to Antarctica currently remains restricted to upholding the military-security and diplomatic goals of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). This current focus aims to hedge against the possibility of conflict on, or over, the frozen continent via ‘working the ATS’, however, this paper argues that Antarctic climate science holds a greater capacity to deliver security outcomes for Australia. Antarctic climate science offers opportunities regarding intelligence for Antarctica, that is, securing Australia’s Antarctic interests, as well as regarding intelligence from Antarctica; by enhancing natural disaster preparedness, bolstering broader strategic planning, as well as furthering diplomacy and the legitimisation of Australia’s leadership on, and over, the frozen continent. It is recommended that the Commonwealth Government establish a climate intelligence working group to ensure the utility of climate science to security and intelligence is realised.
南极是世界气候的重要调节者,随着环境安全渗透到全球安全中,利用南极科学更好地了解气候变得越来越紧迫。尽管澳大利亚政府已经认识到气候变化构成了“当前和存在的国家安全”威胁,并承认南极洲对地球全球气候系统的重要性,但澳大利亚情报界有关南极洲的重点目前仍局限于维护南极条约系统(ATS)的军事安全和外交目标。目前的重点是通过“ATS工作”来对冲在冰冻大陆上或上空发生冲突的可能性,然而,本文认为南极气候科学具有更大的能力,可以为澳大利亚提供安全成果。南极气候科学为南极洲的情报提供了机会,即确保澳大利亚的南极利益,以及来自南极洲的情报;通过加强自然灾害准备,支持更广泛的战略规划,以及进一步加强外交和澳大利亚在这片冰冻大陆上的领导地位的合法性。建议联邦政府建立一个气候情报工作组,以确保气候科学对安全和情报的效用得以实现。
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引用次数: 0
Learning the right policy lessons from Beijing’s campaign of trade disruption against Australia 从北京对澳大利亚的贸易破坏运动中吸取正确的政策教训
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2023.2212612
J. Laurenceson, S. Armstrong
ABSTRACT Perceived threats to sovereignty stemming from trade exposure to China have led to calls for the Australian government to embrace the concept of ‘trusted trade’. This involves using policy levers to drive trade towards markets that have capitals more geopolitically aligned with Canberra and finds practical expression in forms such as ‘friend-shored’ supply chains. A theme of ‘trusted trade’ advocacy is the conscription of existing security-oriented partnerships, including the ANZUS alliance, the Quad grouping and the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing arrangement, to take on economic dimensions. While holding superficial appeal, this paper details why pursuing this policy path would be to learn the wrong lessons from Beijing’s campaign of trade disruption that began in May 2020, and make Australia both poorer and less secure. Three key data points are highlighted that collectively support an assessment that the Australian government’s traditional trade policy approach, emphasising open regionalism, remains overwhelmingly fit for purpose.
摘要:由于对中国的贸易暴露,人们认为主权受到威胁,因此呼吁澳大利亚政府接受“可信贸易”的概念。这涉及到利用政策杠杆推动贸易流向资本在地缘政治上与堪培拉更加一致的市场,并以“朋友支撑”供应链等形式得到实际表达。“可信贸易”倡导的一个主题是招募现有的以安全为导向的伙伴关系,包括澳新军团联盟、四方集团和五眼情报共享安排,以应对经济层面的问题。虽然这篇论文具有表面吸引力,但它详细说明了为什么走这条政策道路会从北京2020年5月开始的贸易破坏运动中吸取错误的教训,并使澳大利亚变得更穷、更不安全。强调了三个关键数据点,它们共同支持一种评估,即澳大利亚政府强调开放区域主义的传统贸易政策方法仍然非常符合目的。
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引用次数: 0
The limits of pressure: China’s bounded economic coercion in response to South Korea’s THAAD 压力的极限:中国对韩国萨德的有限经济胁迫
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2023.2216642
Yukyung Yeo
ABSTRACT In the context of economic interdependence, South Korea, like other countries with asymmetrical trade relations with China, is often seen by its citizens as vulnerable to China’s use of economic power to gain political influence. However, South Korea’s deployment of the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) offers the opposite perspective on South Korea’s vulnerability. Despite China’s coercive policies against South Korean businesses and great leverage over Korea’s economy, China failed to generate a concession regarding Korea’s decision to deploy the THAAD. The question is why? Drawing on the 2016–17 THAAD crisis between South Korea and China, I argue that influence of coercive power will depend on the coercive state’s willingness to pay a cost, the target state’s level of stateness, and the relative intensity of interests related to the policy. This case study helps us understand the circumstances under which China’s use of economic coercion against target countries may be successful.
摘要在经济相互依存的背景下,韩国和其他与中国贸易关系不对称的国家一样,经常被其公民视为容易受到中国利用经济力量获取政治影响力的影响。然而,韩国部署末段高空区域防御系统(THAAD)对韩国的脆弱性提供了相反的看法。尽管中国对韩国企业采取了强制性政策,并对韩国经济施加了巨大影响,但中国未能就韩国部署萨德的决定做出让步。问题是为什么?根据2016-17年韩国和中国之间的萨德危机,我认为强制权力的影响将取决于强制国家支付成本的意愿、目标国家的国家水平以及与政策相关的利益的相对强度。这一案例研究有助于我们了解中国对目标国家使用经济胁迫可能取得成功的情况。
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引用次数: 0
The end of the ‘lucky country’? Understanding the failure of the AUKUS policy debate “幸运之国”的终结?理解AUKUS政策辩论的失败
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2023.2210278
R. Dunley
ABSTRACT The Australian debate over AUKUS, and its strategic policy more generally, has been notable for its disjointed and incoherent nature. This article seeks to explain why, arguing that Australia has been the beneficiary of a remarkably benign strategic situation for nearly 80 years, something that has distorted our understanding of the underlying landscape.
摘要澳大利亚关于AUKUS及其更广泛的战略政策的辩论以其脱节和不连贯的性质而引人注目。这篇文章试图解释为什么,认为澳大利亚近80年来一直是一个非常良性的战略局势的受益者,这扭曲了我们对潜在形势的理解。
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引用次数: 0
The case for UN-supported, ASEAN-led negotiations on Myanmar 联合国支持、东盟领导的缅甸问题谈判
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-04-23 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2023.2197283
R. Barber
ABSTRACT Two years following Myanmar’s attempted military coup, the situation is at a stalemate. Little progress has been achieved against ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus, hailed as a major breakthrough in April 2021. Egregious human rights violations continue, and the military is reportedly losing ground but showing little inclination to negotiate. Facing internal political constraints, ASEAN has requested support from the UN. The Security Council has responded by ‘encouraging the international community’ to support ASEAN to resolve the crisis. The UN’s Special Envoy on Myanmar has for her part declared there is no room for ‘talks about talks’, and that she will focus on alleviating suffering. This commentary argues that the UN should do more. It recalls the Secretary-General’s prioritisation in 2017 of ‘diplomacy for peace’, and his ambitions for the UN’s mediation capacity. It reviews situations elsewhere in which the Secretary-General has exercised his ‘good offices’, through his Special Envoys and Representatives, and observes that the exercise of the Secretary-General’s good offices is typically enabled by a request from the Security Council. This commentary thus explores the possibility of ASEAN initiating such a request, with a view to prompting stronger UN support for ASEAN-led negotiations towards a political settlement in Myanmar.
摘要缅甸军事政变未遂两年后,局势陷入僵局。与2021年4月被誉为重大突破的东盟五点共识相比,进展甚微。侵犯人权的行为仍在继续,据报道,军方正在节节败退,但几乎没有谈判的意愿。面对内部政治制约,东盟请求联合国给予支持。安理会的回应是“鼓励国际社会”支持东盟解决危机。联合国缅甸问题特使宣布,没有“谈一谈”的空间,她将专注于减轻痛苦。这篇评论认为联合国应该做得更多。它回顾了秘书长2017年对“外交促进和平”的优先考虑,以及他对联合国调解能力的雄心。它审查了秘书长通过其特使和代表进行“斡旋”的其他情况,并指出,秘书长进行斡旋通常是根据安全理事会的请求。因此,本评论探讨了东盟提出这一请求的可能性,以期促使联合国更加支持东盟领导的缅甸政治解决谈判。
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引用次数: 0
Craig stockings’ fiery official history of the East Timor crisis 克雷格·斯托克斯关于东帝汶危机的火热官方历史
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2023.2189219
John Blaxland
Abstract This is a review of Professor Craig Stockings' fiery official history of the East Timor crisis and the Australian led intervention. It spans the diplomatic, historical, cultural, geographic and political background to the Indonesian occupation in 1975, the 1999 ballot and the part played by the UN Assistance Mission East Timor (UNAMET) as well as the subsequent Australian led intervention in September 1999. This no-punches-pulled account exposes significant shortcomings in Australia's departments of Defence, Foreign Affairs and Trade, and beyond.
摘要这是对克雷格·斯托克斯教授关于东帝汶危机和澳大利亚领导的干预的激烈官方历史的回顾。它涵盖了1975年印度尼西亚占领、1999年投票、联合国东帝汶援助团(东帝汶特派团)发挥的作用以及随后澳大利亚领导的1999年9月干预的外交、历史、文化、地理和政治背景。这种毫不留情的说法暴露了澳大利亚国防部、外交部和贸易部等部门的重大缺陷。
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引用次数: 0
Global IR and the middle power concept: exploring different paths to agency 全球IR与中等权力概念:探索不同的代理路径
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2023.2191925
Charalampos Efstathopoulos
ABSTRACT The premise of Global IR for greater pluralism and inclusivity allows for reconsidering the relevance of established concepts in the IR discipline. This article discusses how Global IR can contribute to rethinking the question of agency in the middle power concept. While the concept has been used in a Western and non-Western context, there is a tendency to adopt a binary distinction between Western middle powers that are conformist in their approach to the liberal international order and Southern middle powers that adopt a reformist stance. The article argues that a Global IR approach can help overcome this dichotomy and open up the study of Western and Southern middle powers to new agential possibilities. To demonstrate this, the article discusses how the cases of Australia and Brazil are not limited to conformist and reformist middle power agencies respectively. The discussion shows how the two states have undergone periods of ambivalence to gradually project new forms of middle power agency that alter and redefine their roles within the liberal international order.
全球IR的前提是更大的多元化和包容性,允许重新考虑IR学科中既定概念的相关性。本文讨论了全球国际关系如何有助于重新思考中等大国概念中的代理问题。虽然这一概念在西方和非西方背景下都有使用,但人们倾向于采用一种二元区分,即在自由国际秩序中墨守成规的西方中等大国和采取改革派立场的南方中等大国。本文认为,全球国际关系方法可以帮助克服这种二分法,并为西方和南方中等大国的研究开辟新的代理可能性。为了证明这一点,本文讨论了澳大利亚和巴西的案例如何不局限于墨守成规和改革派的中等权力机构。这一讨论表明,两国如何经历了矛盾的时期,以逐渐规划新形式的中等力量机构,改变和重新定义它们在自由国际秩序中的角色。
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引用次数: 2
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Australian Journal of International Affairs
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