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Australia-France relations after AUKUS: Macron, Morrison and trust in International Relations AUKUS后的澳法关系:马克龙、莫里森与国际关系信任
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2022.2070599
Eglantine Staunton, B. Day
ABSTRACT The centrepiece of the AUKUS defence pact agreed between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States in September 2021 was a commitment to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines. This made redundant an earlier $90 billion deal Australia had entered into with France to deliver conventionally powered submarines. Australia’s decision to renege on the French deal, as well as the revelation that three of France’s key partners had negotiated AUKUS in secret, triggered a furious French diplomatic response. In this commentary, we explore the ramifications of this episode for future Australia-France relations. We begin by documenting the immediate diplomatic fallout of the AUKUS announcement and tracing how the dispute became personalised between Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and French President Emmanuel Macron. We then move to consider how the episode reveals the divergent approaches Australia and France are taking in response to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Finally, we highlight three reasons why this episode represents a theoretically valuable case study for scholars interested in the roles of trust and leadership in global politics, given it features the breakdown of interpersonal trust between leaders of friendly states.
摘要澳大利亚、英国和美国于2021年9月达成的AUKUS防务协议的核心内容是承诺帮助澳大利亚获得核动力潜艇。这使得澳大利亚早些时候与法国签订的价值900亿美元的常规动力潜艇协议变得多余。澳大利亚违背法国协议的决定,以及法国三个关键合作伙伴秘密谈判AUKUS的消息,引发了法国的愤怒外交回应。在这篇评论中,我们探讨了这一事件对未来澳法关系的影响。我们首先记录AUKUS宣布的直接外交后果,并追踪澳大利亚总理斯科特·莫里森和法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙之间的争端是如何个人化的。然后,我们来思考这一事件如何揭示澳大利亚和法国为应对中国在印太地区日益增长的影响力而采取的不同做法。最后,我们强调了三个原因,为什么这一事件对于对信任和领导力在全球政治中的作用感兴趣的学者来说是一个理论上有价值的案例研究,因为它以友好国家领导人之间的人际信任破裂为特征。
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引用次数: 4
Why does populism not make populist foreign policy? Indonesia under Jokowi 为什么民粹主义不能制定民粹主义的外交政策?佐科威治下的印尼
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2022.2071834
I. Wicaksana
ABSTRACT The consequences of populism on foreign policy have been a rising topic of academic inquiry in recent years. The latest literature exposes diverse propensities in the state governments’ international behaviour led by populist leaders. In comparison, foreign policies of populists in the Americas and Europe exhibit anti-elitism and anti-pluralism toward the outside world. Those in Asia tend to be populist domestically, not in foreign policy. This article focuses on the foreign policies of Asian populist government leaders and addresses the question as to why are their foreign policies sterile from populism? It presents the case of Indonesia under President Joko Widodo (Jokowi). The argument is that the enduring pragmatism and domestic constraints have hindered Jokowi's populist motive from shaping the role of the state foreign policy as the defender of the suppressed people against the repressive elite. Hence, Jokowi is unable to make any substantial change to the foreign policy of his non-populist predecessors, and he has to maintain Indonesia’s traditional foreign policy pillars. Nevertheless, the case of Jokowi's Indonesia can open up the space to challenge the established Euro-American scholarship advancing a positive connection between leaders’ populism and foreign policy.
近年来,民粹主义对外交政策的影响已成为学术研究的一个日益上升的话题。最新的文献揭示了由民粹主义领导人领导的州政府在国际行为上的不同倾向。相比之下,美洲和欧洲民粹主义者的对外政策则表现出反精英主义和反多元主义。亚洲国家倾向于在国内奉行民粹主义,而不是在外交政策上。本文关注亚洲民粹主义政府领导人的外交政策,并探讨为什么他们的外交政策不受民粹主义的影响?它介绍了佐科·维多多(Jokowi)总统领导下的印度尼西亚。这种观点认为,持久的实用主义和国内制约阻碍了佐科维的民粹主义动机塑造国家外交政策的角色,使其无法成为受压迫人民对抗压迫精英的捍卫者。因此,佐科威无法对其非民粹主义前任的外交政策做出任何实质性改变,他必须保持印尼传统的外交政策支柱。尽管如此,佐科维领导下的印尼可以打开一个空间,挑战既有的欧美学术,即领导人的民粹主义与外交政策之间的积极联系。
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引用次数: 6
Indonesia’s G20 presidency: neoliberal policy and authoritarian tendencies 印尼担任G20轮值主席国:新自由主义政策与威权主义倾向
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-29 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2022.2070598
F. Al-Fadhat
ABSTRACT Multilateralism at the regional and global stage is essential for Indonesia’s foreign policy. Apart from ASEAN, which has long been a pivotal array for Indonesia’s regional economic interdependence and political stability, the G20 is recently added to the country’s interest. It serves Indonesia’s desire for global leadership and middle-power status. As Indonesia began its year-long presidency of the G20 in 2022, the government is confident that hosting numerous meetings and the Group’s summit at the end of 2022 is a notable milestone for its international leadership exposure. This time, Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo emphasises priority agendas: strengthening global health architecture, transitioning to green and renewable energy, and promoting the digital economy. This commentary evaluates and projects Indonesia’s G20 presidency amidst the country’s democratic decline in recent years. It argues that Indonesia’s proposed agendas are more ambitious goals than strategic. Instead, the country’s priority will be marked by a solid neoliberal economic policy and stability, which is likely to cause even more democratic setbacks at home.
摘要:区域和全球舞台上的多边主义对印尼的外交政策至关重要。东盟长期以来一直是印尼地区经济相互依存和政治稳定的关键组成部分,除此之外,20国集团最近也增加了该国的兴趣。它符合印尼对全球领导地位和中等强国地位的渴望。随着印度尼西亚于2022年开始担任为期一年的二十国集团主席国,政府相信,2022年底举办的多次会议和二十国集团峰会是其国际领导力曝光的一个显著里程碑。这一次,印尼总统佐科·维多多强调了优先议程:加强全球卫生架构,向绿色和可再生能源过渡,以及促进数字经济。这篇评论评估并预测了印尼在近年来民主衰落的情况下担任二十国集团主席国的情况。它认为,印尼提出的议程与其说是战略性的,不如说是雄心勃勃的目标。相反,该国的优先事项将是稳固的新自由主义经济政策和稳定,这可能会在国内造成更大的民主挫折。
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引用次数: 5
Japan’s infrastructure export and development cooperation: the role of ODA loan projects in the 2010s 日本基础设施出口与发展合作:2010年代官方发展援助贷款项目的作用
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-27 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2022.2064972
K. Endo, N. Murashkin
ABSTRACT Japan formulated its first infrastructure export strategy in 2010. However, the outputs and effects of that strategy and its successive revisions over the preceding decade have not yet been extensively reviewed. Although infrastructure came to the fore of the international agenda over the past decade, existing research has mostly discussed individual infrastructure projects and accompanying signalling, sloganeering, and strategic communications in the geopolitical and geo-economic context. This paper therefore aims to make an empirical and interpretive contribution to existing scholarship by comprehensively reviewing Japan’s infrastructure exports in 2010–19 and elucidating further its oft-disregarded commercial and developmental aspects. To do so, this article focuses on Official Development Assistance (ODA) loan projects, which count among the largest items of Japan’s infrastructure exports. We introduce and analyse a previously unexamined dataset on infrastructure-related ODA loan projects and contract awards, while also showcasing the avoidance of zero-sum-game approaches in Japan’s related strategy. We then discuss whether and how the changes of Japanese infrastructure export strategy affected the performance of Japan’s infrastructure export through the ODA loan projects as well as Japan’s relationship with the recipient countries, especially in the various parts of the Indo-Pacific region, such as Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Africa.
2010年,日本制定了第一个基础设施出口战略。但是,该战略的产出和效果及其在过去十年的连续修订尚未得到广泛审查。尽管在过去十年中,基础设施成为国际议程的重要议题,但现有的研究大多是在地缘政治和地缘经济背景下讨论单个基础设施项目及其伴随的信号、口号和战略通信。因此,本文旨在通过全面回顾2010-19年日本基础设施出口,并进一步阐明其经常被忽视的商业和发展方面,对现有的学术研究做出实证和解释性的贡献。为此,本文将重点关注官方发展援助(ODA)贷款项目,这些项目是日本基础设施出口的最大项目之一。我们介绍和分析了一个以前未经审查的关于基础设施相关ODA贷款项目和合同授予的数据集,同时也展示了日本在相关战略中避免零和博弈的方法。然后,我们讨论了日本基础设施出口战略的变化是否以及如何影响日本通过官方发展援助贷款项目的基础设施出口绩效,以及日本与受援国的关系,特别是在东南亚、南亚和非洲等印度太平洋地区的各个地区。
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引用次数: 1
Framing China in the Pacific Islands 在太平洋岛国陷害中国
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-13 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2022.2063252
Joanne Wallis, A. Ireland, I. Robinson, A. Turner
ABSTRACT How did many Australians come to accept that competition, rather than cooperation, with China was necessary in the Pacific Islands? We use discourse analysis techniques to examine the role that framings in Australian official discourse, media, and commentary over the last decade (2011–2021) played in constructing China’s presence in the region as threatening such that many Australians have accepted that policies aimed at competing with China are the most reasonable foreign and strategic policy response. We find that Australian official discourse was characterised by qualified optimism about China’s role until 2018, when a more explicit emphasis on competition emerged. Echoing this shift, while the media and (much of) the commentary framed China’s role in terms of threat and competition throughout the decade, this framing increased significantly in 2018. It is impossible to isolate the Australian government’s policy approach to China in the Pacific Islands from its broader understanding of China’s increasingly activist role in Australia, the Indo-Pacific, and globally. But our findings suggest that, by consistently framing China in terms of threat and competition, the media and – to a lesser extent, commentary – created an enabling environment for the public to accept changes to the Australian government’s policies.
许多澳大利亚人是如何接受在太平洋岛屿上必须与中国竞争而不是合作的?我们使用话语分析技术来研究过去十年(2011-2021年)澳大利亚官方话语、媒体和评论中的框架在构建中国在该地区存在的威胁中所起的作用,以至于许多澳大利亚人已经接受旨在与中国竞争的政策是最合理的外交和战略政策回应。我们发现,直到2018年,澳大利亚官方话语的特点是对中国的作用持有条件的乐观态度,当时出现了对竞争的更明确强调。与这一转变相呼应的是,尽管媒体和(大部分)评论在过去十年中将中国的角色定义为威胁和竞争,但这种定义在2018年显著增加。澳大利亚政府在太平洋岛屿上对中国的政策方针,不可能与它对中国在澳大利亚、印太地区和全球日益积极的作用的更广泛理解相分离。但我们的研究结果表明,通过持续地将中国描述为威胁和竞争,媒体和(在较小程度上)评论创造了一个有利的环境,使公众接受澳大利亚政府政策的变化。
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引用次数: 5
Explaining China's strategy of implicit economic coercion. Best left unsaid? 解释中国的隐性经济胁迫策略。最好不说?
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-07 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2022.2061418
Charles Miller
ABSTRACT The recent ‘trade war' between Australia and China has understandably sparked fear amongst Australian policymakers, voters and businesses. China's alleged economic coercion towards Australia has the strange property that Chinese leaders are not making any clear explicit demands of Australia. Moreover, this behaviour follows a pattern in recent Chinese dealings with other Asia-Pacific states. Why would a state initiate economic coercion without making clear demands? In this paper, I offer an explanation, building on the logic of audience costs in wars of attrition. I suggest that China's strategy of economic coercion without explicit demands serves a key strategic purpose. Omitting specific demands makes the outcome of any given dispute less clear and hence makes it easier for either side to claim victory. This negates a key advantage which democratic states have in bargaining with autocratic adversaries—the fact that their audience costs for backing down are usually higher, which makes them less likely to initiate but more likely to win international disputes. Implicit economic coercion should therefore be a strategy which is primarily targeted at China’s democratic trading partners. I examine the record of Chinese uses of economic coercion in the past and find that this pattern finds much support.
最近澳大利亚和中国之间的“贸易战”引发了澳大利亚政策制定者、选民和企业的担忧,这是可以理解的。中国对澳大利亚所谓的经济胁迫有一个奇怪的特点,即中国领导人没有对澳大利亚提出任何明确的要求。此外,这种行为遵循了中国最近与其他亚太国家打交道的模式。为什么一个国家会在没有明确要求的情况下实施经济强制?在本文中,我基于消耗战中受众成本的逻辑给出了一个解释。我认为,中国在没有明确要求的情况下实施经济胁迫战略,是为了达到一个关键的战略目的。忽略具体要求会使任何特定争端的结果变得不那么明确,从而使任何一方都更容易宣称胜利。这就否定了民主国家在与专制对手讨价还价时所具有的一个关键优势——事实上,他们让步的受众成本通常更高,这使得他们不太可能发起国际争端,但更有可能赢得国际争端。因此,隐性经济胁迫应该是一种主要针对中国民主贸易伙伴的战略。我研究了中国过去使用经济胁迫的记录,发现这种模式得到了很多支持。
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引用次数: 6
Antarctic Treaty System at 60: fit for the future? 60岁的南极条约体系:适合未来吗?
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2022.2057919
Elizabeth Buchanan, Patrick Flamm
For six decades the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) has succeeded in keeping the Antarctic continent free from military conflict while facilitating international scientific cooperation and environmental protection. As the international system undergoes profound changes once again today with the rise of Asia, a global resurgence of great power politics, an international pandemic, and an accelerating global climate crisis, it seems warranted to explore how this successful multilateral regime might be impacted. In the face of such systemic international challenges, what explains the continued success of the ATS? What does a future multipolar world order or a crisis of liberal democratic global order mean for this carefully balanced governance arrangement of one of the most fragile environmental systems on the planet? The relationships between a rising China and resurgent Russia, both with Antarctic interests and legitimate and important stakes in the ATS, and a United States of America engulfed in polarised domestic politics, yet holding the same set of ATS rights, will no doubt affect the ATS and the Earth’s Southernmost continent. Established Antarctic nations are nervous about the intentions of new players, particularly from Asia, while rapidly progressing environmental change and new regulatory challenges such as tourism and bioprospecting all place additional pressure on the ATS. Finding consensus and maintaining the status-quo in an increasingly anxious, contested and competitive international environment will be difficult. And Australia, which has the largest stake (claiming 42% of the Antarctic continent), has a particular interest. It seems fitting to produce a special issue of the Australian Journal of International Affairs to offer just some of the ways in which Antarctic scholars in Australia and New Zealand perceive the future of Antarctica and the ATS. Is the ATS fit for this more strategically competitive international environment and if not, what could and should be done about it? Where can Australia lead this effort? In the first article, Elizabeth Buchanan examines the character of strategic competition in Antarctica. Buchanan argues grey zone activities are a prominent (yet overlooked) feature of contemporary Antarctic geopolitics. Grey zone strategies have allowed states to facilitate their own strategic agendas under the guise of cooperation and yet such activities remain in adherence to the ATS, in many ways as Buchanan argues, the system turns on grey zone activity. She undertakes an in-depth analysis of Australian Antarctic policy settings across the defence and foreign policy sectors since 2000. Buchanan finds Australian policy overlooks grey zone activities and fails to grasp the
六十年来,《南极条约体系》成功地使南极大陆免于军事冲突,同时促进了国际科学合作和环境保护。今天,随着亚洲的崛起、大国政治的全球复苏、国际流行病和全球气候危机的加剧,国际体系再次经历深刻变化,似乎有必要探讨这一成功的多边体制可能受到的影响。面对如此系统性的国际挑战,如何解释ATS的持续成功?未来的多极世界秩序或自由民主全球秩序的危机,对地球上最脆弱的环境系统之一的这种精心平衡的治理安排意味着什么?崛起的中国和复兴的俄罗斯之间的关系,两者都有南极利益和在ATS中的合法和重要利益,而美国陷入了两极分化的国内政治,但拥有同样的ATS权利,毫无疑问将影响ATS和地球上最南端的大陆。老牌南极国家对新参与者的意图感到紧张,尤其是来自亚洲的新参与者,而快速发展的环境变化和新的监管挑战,如旅游业和生物勘探,都给ATS带来了额外的压力。在日益焦虑、争夺和竞争的国际环境中寻求共识和维持现状将是困难的。而拥有最大股份(声称拥有南极大陆42%的土地)的澳大利亚有着特殊的利益。似乎有必要在《澳大利亚国际事务杂志》(Australian Journal of International Affairs)上出一期特刊,提供澳大利亚和新西兰的南极学者对南极洲和南极研究中心未来的一些看法。ATS是否适合这种更具战略竞争性的国际环境?如果不适合,我们可以而且应该做些什么?澳大利亚可以在哪里领导这一努力?在第一篇文章中,伊丽莎白·布坎南考察了南极洲战略竞争的特点。布坎南认为,灰色地带活动是当代南极地缘政治的一个突出(但被忽视)特征。灰色地带战略允许各国在合作的幌子下促进自己的战略议程,但这些活动仍然遵守ATS,正如布坎南所说,在许多方面,该系统开启了灰色地带活动。自2000年以来,她对澳大利亚国防和外交政策部门的南极政策进行了深入分析。布坎南发现,澳大利亚的政策忽视了灰色地带的活动,未能把握住
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引用次数: 2
Assessing the maritime ‘rules-based order’ in Antarctica 评估南极洲的海上“基于规则的秩序”
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2022.2056874
Rebecca Strating
ABSTRACT International Relations has become increasingly interested in maritime order as the oceans have emerged as a key site of strategic competition. The South China Sea has become totemic of contests between ‘free’ and ‘closed’ visions of the seas, and is viewed by some as a litmus test for China’s efforts to re-write the ‘rules-based order’ in other maritime domains. This article examines the maritime ‘rules-based order’ in Antarctica, critically examining how and why the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) matters for the Antarctic region, the Southern Ocean and mechanisms of regional governance. This article contributes to understanding the complexity of maritime order in Antarctica by using Australia’s maritime claims as a case study. Australia is the largest claimant state in Antarctica, with the Australian Antarctic Territory (AAT) constituting 42% of the landmass. This paper examines Australia’s contentious maritime jurisdiction and its ‘normative hedging’ strategy that simultaneously asserts maritime claims and defends collective governance mechanisms, despite the apparent dissonance between these two positions. It argues that the Antarctic region has its own unique ‘rules-based order’ and geographic realities that complicate cross-regional comparisons, and that even so-called ‘like-minded’ states interpret maritime rules in different ways.
随着海洋成为战略竞争的重要场所,国际关系对海洋秩序越来越感兴趣。南中国海已成为“自由”和“封闭”海洋概念之争的象征,一些人将其视为中国在其他海洋领域改写“基于规则的秩序”努力的试金石。本文考察了南极洲的海洋“基于规则的秩序”,批判性地考察了《联合国海洋法公约》(UNCLOS)对南极地区、南大洋和区域治理机制的重要性。本文以澳大利亚的海洋权利主张为例,有助于理解南极洲海洋秩序的复杂性。澳大利亚是南极洲最大的主权声索国,澳大利亚南极领地(AAT)占南极洲陆地面积的42%。本文考察了澳大利亚有争议的海事管辖权及其“规范性对冲”策略,该策略同时主张海事索赔并捍卫集体治理机制,尽管这两个立场之间存在明显的不协调。它认为,南极地区有自己独特的“基于规则的秩序”和地理现实,这使得跨区域比较变得复杂,甚至所谓的“志同道合”的国家也以不同的方式解释海洋规则。
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引用次数: 0
Antarctica in the gray zone 灰色地带的南极洲
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2022.2057917
Elizabeth Buchanan
ABSTRACT All appears quiet on Australia’s southern front – Antarctica. The continent remains a beacon of cooperation, home to a continued system of international governance and scientific engagement, lauded as a political win from the depths of the Cold War. Beneath the surface, however, this article argues that strategic competition is now building. In Antarctica, this competition takes the form of gray zone activities. This article argues that the proliferation of gray zone challenges could jeopardize the future of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). This article analyses gray zone activity in Antarctica and highlights the growing complexity Australia faces, as Canberra pursues the dual objectives of protecting Australia’s territorial claim to the Australian Antarctic Territory (AAT) and bolstering the ATS.
摘要:在澳大利亚的南线——南极洲,一切似乎都很安静。非洲大陆仍然是合作的灯塔,拥有持续的国际治理和科学参与体系,被誉为冷战时期的政治胜利。然而,在表面之下,本文认为战略竞争正在形成。在南极洲,这种竞赛采取灰色地带活动的形式。这篇文章认为,灰色地带挑战的扩散可能危及南极条约体系的未来。本文分析了南极洲的灰色地带活动,并强调了澳大利亚面临的日益复杂的情况,因为堪培拉追求保护澳大利亚对澳大利亚南极领土(AAT)的领土主张和加强ATS的双重目标。
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引用次数: 1
Conservation Law in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean: the Antarctic Treaty System, conservation, and environmental protection 南极和南大洋的保护法:南极条约体系、保护和环境保护
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2022.2057920
A. Press, A. Constable
ABSTRACT The Antarctic Treaty System provides the corpus of law that governs the obligations of its Parties to protect and conserve the Antarctic environment. The System consists principally of the Antarctic Treaty (the Treaty), the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CAMLR Convention), and the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty (Environmental Protocol). The Antarctic Treaty establishes the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting – the body that makes decisions under the provisions of the Treaty and Environmental Protocol. The CAMLR Convention establishes the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) – its decision-making body. Together, these two international bodies are responsible for the modern-day conservation and environmental management regimes for Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. This paper looks at the scope of law developed under the Antarctic Treaty System and its evolution; and at the interaction between the different components of the Antarctic Treaty System. The paper also forecasts some of the future challenges to conservation and environmental protection in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.
《南极条约体系》为缔约国保护和养护南极环境的义务提供了法律主体。该体系主要由《南极条约》(《条约》)、《南极海洋生物资源养护公约》(《CAMLR公约》)和《南极条约环境保护议定书》(《环境议定书》)组成。《南极条约》设立了南极条约协商会议- -根据《条约》和《环境议定书》的规定作出决定的机构。《南极海洋生物资源保护公约》设立了南极海洋生物资源保护委员会(CCAMLR)——其决策机构。这两个国际机构共同负责南极洲和南大洋的现代养护和环境管理制度。本文着眼于根据《南极条约体系》制定的法律范围及其演变;以及《南极条约系统》不同组成部分之间的相互作用。这篇论文还预测了未来南极洲和南大洋环境保护面临的一些挑战。
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引用次数: 5
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Australian Journal of International Affairs
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