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Digital infrastructure and industrial decarbonization: evidence from the dual perspectives of green innovation and digital coordination in China 数字基础设施与工业脱碳:来自中国绿色创新和数字协调双重视角的证据
IF 8.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.040
Hewen Gao , Fei Li , Jinhua Zhang , Weilin Shi , Yu Sun
Tackling climate change requires profound industrial decarbonization, where digital infrastructure is envisioned as a key enabler. However, the micro-foundations and meso‑level channels through which it operates remain underexplored. Utilizing a unique dataset of 985 Chinese listed industrial firms (2014–2022) matched with city-level data, this study investigates how digital infrastructure affects corporate carbon emission intensity. We propose and test a dual-channel mechanism: enhancing firms' green innovation capacity and fostering industry-wide digital coordination efficiency. Our extended timeframe captures firm behavior before and after the announcement of China's 'Dual Carbon' goals in 2020, offering a unique quasi-experimental setting to examine the policy's reinforcing effect. Our findings, robust to instrumental variable and quasi-natural experiment approaches, confirm that digital infrastructure significantly reduces emission intensity. The mediation analysis validates that both corporate green innovation and industry digital coordination are significant transmission channels. Furthermore, we identify a negative moderating effect of city size and notable heterogeneity across firm types and industries—most notably, a potential 'rebound effect' in technology-intensive sectors. This study makes three primary contributions. First, by shifting the analytical focus from the provincial to the city level and establishing a direct link between urban digital infrastructure and firm-level conduct, we provide more precise and granular micro-evidence that mitigates potential aggregation biases. Second, we theoretically elaborate and empirically test a dual-channel mechanism, incorporating both the micro-foundation of corporate green innovation and the meso‑level channel of industry digital coordination, thereby systematically unpacking the 'black box' of digital decarbonization. Third, methodologically, we pioneer the measurement of industry digital coordination efficiency using input-output tables, offering a novel and replicable approach for future multi-level research on digital economy externalities.
应对气候变化需要深度的工业脱碳,其中数字基础设施被设想为关键的推动因素。然而,其运作的微观基础和中观渠道仍未得到充分探索。本研究利用985家中国工业上市公司(2014-2022)的独特数据集与城市数据相匹配,研究了数字基础设施对企业碳排放强度的影响。我们提出并验证了一个双通道机制:提高企业绿色创新能力和促进全行业数字协调效率。我们延长的时间框架捕捉了中国在2020年宣布“双碳”目标之前和之后的企业行为,提供了一个独特的准实验环境来检验政策的强化效果。我们的研究结果对工具变量和准自然实验方法具有鲁棒性,证实了数字基础设施显著降低了排放强度。中介分析验证了企业绿色创新和行业数字化协调都是重要的传播渠道。此外,我们还发现了城市规模的负调节效应,以及企业类型和行业之间的显著异质性——最值得注意的是,技术密集型行业存在潜在的“反弹效应”。这项研究有三个主要贡献。首先,通过将分析重点从省级转移到城市层面,并在城市数字基础设施与企业层面行为之间建立直接联系,我们提供了更精确、更细粒度的微观证据,从而减轻了潜在的聚集偏差。其次,结合企业绿色创新的微观基础和行业数字化协调的中观渠道,从理论上阐述和实证检验了一种双通道机制,从而系统地打开了数字化脱碳的“黑箱”。第三,在方法上,我们率先使用投入产出表来衡量行业数字协调效率,为未来数字经济外部性的多层次研究提供了一种新颖且可复制的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Agricultural subsidy policy reform and rural digital economic transformation: Evidence from China 农业补贴政策改革与农村数字经济转型:来自中国的证据
IF 8.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.041
Chenze Zhao , Chibo Chen , Zhisheng Ma
Rural digital economic transformation has become an important component in promoting agricultural modernization and rural revitalization. This paper focuses on the impact of agricultural subsidy policy reform on rural digital economic transformation in China. Using panel data from prefecture-level cities across China, the study applies the difference-in-differences (DID) model to explore the causal effects of agricultural subsidy policy reform on rural digital economic transformation. The results show that agricultural subsidy policy reform significantly promotes rural digital economic transformation, and this conclusion holds after a series of robustness checks. Mechanism analysis reveals that agricultural subsidy policy reform drives rural digital economic transformation through promoting agricultural mechanization, fostering new agricultural business entities, and reducing the urban-rural income gap. Furthermore, the study finds significant heterogeneity in the effects of agricultural subsidy policy reform. The results show that the positive effects of the policy are relatively stronger in coastal cities and non-transport hub cities, while no significant differences are observed between cities of different sizes or those classified as old industrial base cities. This study provides theoretical insights for policymakers and serves as a basis for using agricultural subsidy policies to promote the comprehensive digitalization of rural economies.
农村数字经济转型已成为推进农业现代化和乡村振兴的重要组成部分。本文主要研究农业补贴政策改革对中国农村数字经济转型的影响。本文利用中国地级市面板数据,运用差异中差异(DID)模型探讨农业补贴政策改革对农村数字经济转型的因果效应。结果表明,农业补贴政策改革显著促进了农村数字经济转型,这一结论经过一系列稳健性检验后成立。机制分析表明,农业补贴政策改革通过促进农业机械化、培育新型农业经营主体、缩小城乡收入差距等三个方面推动农村数字经济转型。此外,研究发现农业补贴政策改革的效果存在显著的异质性。结果表明,政策的积极效应在沿海城市和非交通枢纽城市中相对较强,而在不同规模的城市和老工业基地城市之间没有显著差异。本研究为政策制定者提供了理论见解,并为利用农业补贴政策促进农村经济全面数字化提供了依据。
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引用次数: 0
Social security payment burden and corporate financialization: Evidence from China’s social insurance law 社保缴费负担与企业金融化:来自中国社会保险法的证据
IF 8.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.047
Min Liu , Jun Fang , Jun Li , Shaohui Zhang
The trend of financialization in Chinese enterprises has garnered significant attention. However, few studies explore this from the perspective of the social security payment burden of enterprises. This study, based on data from non-financial Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008–2022, employs a difference-in-differences model to analyze the effects of the Social Insurance Law on corporate financialization and its underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that the implementation of the China Social Insurance Law significantly increased the level of corporate financialization. Mechanism analysis reveals that this effect is primarily achieved through stimulating companies’ “reservoir” motivation and “investment substitution” motivation. Further analysis reveals that the Social Insurance Law’s promotion effect on corporate financialization is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises and those with high financial debt. This effect is also more significant in investment-type and hedging-type financial assets compared to speculative-type financial assets. This research helps to deepen the understanding of corporate investment and financing behavior.
中国企业的金融化趋势备受关注。然而,很少有研究从企业社保缴费负担的角度来探讨这一问题。本研究基于2008-2022年中国a股非金融类上市公司数据,采用异中异模型分析《社会保险法》对企业金融化的影响及其潜在机制。结果表明,《中国社会保险法》的实施显著提高了企业金融化水平。机制分析表明,这主要是通过刺激企业的“储层”动机和“投资替代”动机来实现的。进一步分析发现,《社会保险法》对企业金融化的促进作用在非国有企业和金融负债较高的企业中更为明显。与投机型金融资产相比,这种效应在投资型和对冲型金融资产中更为显著。本研究有助于加深对企业投融资行为的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the safe-haven and hedging roles of bitcoin, gold, and crude oil on global stock markets in short-term, medium-to-long-term, and shock periods 比特币、黄金、原油在短期、中长期、震荡期对全球股市的避险和对冲作用研究
IF 8.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.043
Fuyao Li , Yahua Yin
This study resolves the "Safe-Haven Paradox" by constructing a "Context-Frequency-Asset" unified framework to evaluate the defensive efficacy of Bitcoin, gold, and crude oil against global equities (2011–2023). Employing the quantile coherency approach, we capture non-linear tail dependence across multiple frequencies and shock archetypes, addressing the dimensional deficits of prior research. Findings reveal profound contextual heterogeneity driven by distinct economic mechanisms: while Bitcoin consistently serves as a short-term stabilizer, Gold’s medium-term defensive utility collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic due to a liquidity-driven "dash for cash". Conversely, crude oil emerged as a robust full-frequency safe haven during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, acting as a primary transmission channel for geopolitical risk. This research provides investors with scenario-adaptive hedging toolkits and offers policymakers frequency-specific regulatory insights to mitigate systemic risk contagion.
本研究通过构建“情境-频率-资产”统一框架来评估比特币、黄金和原油对全球股票的防御效能(2011-2023),解决了“避险悖论”。采用分位数相干方法,我们捕获了多个频率和冲击原型的非线性尾相关性,解决了先前研究的维度缺陷。研究结果揭示了由不同经济机制驱动的深刻背景异质性:尽管比特币一直充当短期稳定剂,但在COVID-19大流行期间,由于流动性驱动的“现金抢购”,黄金的中期防御效用崩溃了。相反,在俄乌冲突期间,原油成为了强劲的全频率避险资产,成为地缘政治风险的主要传导渠道。本研究为投资者提供了情景适应性对冲工具,并为政策制定者提供了针对特定频率的监管见解,以减轻系统性风险传染。
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引用次数: 0
Market-based environmental regulation and ESG greenwashing: Evidence from environmental liability insurance1 基于市场的环境监管与ESG洗绿:来自环境责任保险的证据
IF 8.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.036
Juling Wang , Lihua Liu , Yi Chen , Yue’e Long
Against the backdrop of escalating ESG greenwashing risks demanding robust regulatory solutions, this study examines the efficacy of Environmental Liability Insurance (ELI) as a market-based governance tool to enhance corporate environmental accountability, leveraging China’s 2018 ELI pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment. Findings reveal that ELI significantly reduces ESG greenwashing by mitigating managerial short-termism, enhancing environmental transparency, and fostering green innovation. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the inhibitory effect of ELI on ESG greenwashing is more pronounced in non-SOEs, financially constrained firms, non-key polluters, weakly governed enterprises, firms outside the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and those in highly competitive industries. This study contributes to the literature on market-driven environmental governance by demonstrating how financial instruments can complement traditional regulatory approaches. It provides valuable insights for policymakers to promote the nationwide implementation of ELI and to tailor its application based on firm-specific characteristics, thereby facilitating sustainable corporate practices.
在ESG“漂绿”风险不断升级、需要强有力的监管解决方案的背景下,本研究利用中国2018年的环境责任保险试点政策作为准自然实验,考察了环境责任保险(ELI)作为一种基于市场的治理工具增强企业环境问责制的有效性。研究结果表明,ELI通过减轻管理短期主义、提高环境透明度和促进绿色创新,显著减少了ESG的绿色洗涤。异质性分析表明,在非国有企业、资金约束企业、非重点污染企业、治理弱企业、长江经济带以外企业和高竞争行业中,企业环境治理对企业ESG绿洗的抑制作用更为明显。这项研究通过展示金融工具如何补充传统的监管方法,为市场驱动的环境治理的文献做出了贡献。它为政策制定者提供了有价值的见解,以促进ELI在全国范围内的实施,并根据企业的具体特点量身定制其应用,从而促进可持续的企业实践。
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引用次数: 0
Energy transition across the climate policy uncertainty divide: The critical role of green technology innovation and digital transformation 跨越气候政策不确定性鸿沟的能源转型:绿色技术创新和数字化转型的关键作用
IF 8.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.037
Wei Chen , Zhichun Song , Yu Xie
Amid escalating climate risks and rising climate policy uncertainty (CPU), clarifying how institutional fragility, spatial interaction and technological change jointly influence energy transition (ET) has become a central analytical challenge. This study develops a theoretical framework of “institutional fragility-spatial co-operation-technological unlocking,” advancing beyond conventional linear analytical paradigms. Using provincial panel data from China covering the period 2011–2022, Spatial Models and multiple threshold regression methods are employed to examine the effects of CPU on ET. The results indicate that: (1) CPU significantly impedes ET, with more pronounced effects in non-technologically intensive regions, western provinces, and areas exposed to high climate risks; (2) while local CPU hinders ET, CPU in neighbouring regions exerts a positive spillover effect on local ET; (3) green technological innovation (GTI) and digital transformation (DT) exhibit nonlinear moderating effects, with substantive green innovation (SUG) displaying more substantial threshold effects than symbolic green innovation (SYG). Moreover, when the DT index exceeds a critical threshold, its effect shifts from inhibition to promotion. This study provides empirical evidence supporting threshold-sensitive climate governance strategies in developing countries. It highlights the importance of fostering disruptive green and digital technologies as core pillars of nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement.
在气候风险不断升级和气候政策不确定性不断上升的背景下,阐明制度脆弱性、空间相互作用和技术变革如何共同影响能源转型已成为一项核心的分析挑战。本研究发展了“制度脆弱性-空间合作-技术解锁”的理论框架,超越了传统的线性分析范式。利用2011-2022年中国省际面板数据,利用空间模型和多阈值回归方法分析了中央处理器对ET的影响。结果表明:(1)中央处理器显著阻碍ET,在非技术密集型地区、西部省份和气候高风险地区的影响更为显著;(2)当本地CPU阻碍ET时,邻近区域的CPU对本地ET具有正向溢出效应;③绿色技术创新(GTI)与数字化转型(DT)表现出非线性调节效应,实质性绿色创新(SUG)比象征性绿色创新(SYG)表现出更显著的阈值效应。此外,当DT指数超过一个临界阈值时,其作用由抑制转向促进。本研究为支持发展中国家阈值敏感型气候治理战略提供了经验证据。它强调了培育颠覆性绿色和数字技术作为《巴黎协定》下国家自主贡献核心支柱的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The equilibrium dilemma: ESG structural imbalance and corporate green innovation 均衡困境:ESG结构失衡与企业绿色创新
IF 8.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.031
Duo Wang, Yunge Hu, Lijia Yang, Yanxi Li
Based on the Resource-Based Theory, this study systematically examines the impact of ESG structural imbalance on corporate green innovation from the dual perspectives of "strategy-driven" and "compliance-driven". The findings reveal that ESG structural imbalance significantly inhibits corporate green innovation, which supports the "compliance-driven" hypothesis. And the degradation in internal self-sustaining capability and constraints in external resource acquisition serve as primary mechanisms. In addition, state-owned enterprises or firms with operating in favorable external information environments can mitigate the negative effect of ESG structural imbalance on green innovation by buffering resource redundancy and reducing investor decision noise. Further analysis shows that ESG structural imbalance offsets the promoting effect of overall ESG performance on green innovation, preventing green innovation from achieving expected enhancement. Furthermore, the inhibitory effect of ESG structural imbalance on green innovation is primarily driven by the environmental dimension. And compared to substantive green innovation, ESG structural imbalance more substantially suppresses strategic green innovation and degrades green innovation quality. By focusing on corporate green innovation activities, this study expands the connotation of sustainable development theory from an internal ESG equilibrium perspective, offering policy insights for enterprises to optimize ESG strategic frameworks and for regulators to refine ESG disclosure systems.
本文基于资源基础理论,从“战略驱动”和“合规驱动”的双重视角系统考察了ESG结构失衡对企业绿色创新的影响。研究发现,ESG结构失衡显著抑制了企业绿色创新,支持了“合规驱动”假说。内部自我维持能力的退化和外部资源获取的制约是主要机制。此外,国有企业或外部信息环境良好的企业可以通过缓冲资源冗余和降低投资者决策噪声来缓解ESG结构失衡对绿色创新的负面影响。进一步分析表明,ESG结构失衡抵消了整体ESG绩效对绿色创新的促进作用,阻碍了绿色创新实现预期提升。此外,ESG结构失衡对绿色创新的抑制作用主要由环境维度驱动。与实质性绿色创新相比,ESG结构失衡更实质性地抑制了战略性绿色创新,降低了绿色创新质量。本研究通过关注企业绿色创新活动,从内部ESG均衡的视角拓展了可持续发展理论的内涵,为企业优化ESG战略框架和监管机构完善ESG披露制度提供政策见解。
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引用次数: 0
Unified market construction and regional coordinated development: Evidence from the integration of China’s public resource trading platforms 统一市场建设与区域协调发展:来自中国公共资源交易平台整合的证据
IF 8.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.033
Wenyi Yang, Yiting Chen
Reforms in public resource transactions are crucial for improving interregional resource allocation and fostering a unified national market. Since 2015, local governments have gradually advanced the integration of public resource trading platforms, yet empirical evidence on the effectiveness of these reforms remains limited. This study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) design to evaluate the impact of platform integration on regional coordinated development. The results show that integrating public resource trading platforms significantly promotes regional coordination. The effects are stronger for commodity transactions with high liquidity, competitive bidding, and greater bidder participation. Spatially, the policy impact is more evident in southern and eastern regions and in areas with greater bureaucratic mobility. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that platform integration enhances regional coordination by improving interregional market integration, standardizing transaction procedures, and increasing information transparency. These findings offer meaningful policy implications for China and other economies seeking to address domestic market fragmentation and strengthen regional coordination.
公共资源交易改革是改善区域间资源配置、培育全国统一市场的重要内容。自2015年以来,地方政府逐步推进公共资源交易平台整合,但这些改革的有效性的实证证据仍然有限。本研究采用交错差中差(DID)设计来评估平台整合对区域协调发展的影响。结果表明,整合公共资源交易平台显著促进区域协调。对于流动性高、竞价竞争性强、投标人参与度高的商品交易,这种效应更强。从空间上看,政策影响在南部和东部地区以及官僚流动性较大的地区更为明显。机制分析表明,平台整合通过促进区域间市场一体化、规范交易流程、提高信息透明度等方式促进区域协调。这些发现为中国和其他寻求解决国内市场碎片化和加强区域协调的经济体提供了有意义的政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
Idiosyncratic tail risk spillover of Chinese commodity futures markets 中国大宗商品期货市场的特殊尾部风险溢出效应
IF 8.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.030
Wei-Qiang Huang, Yilin Wang
This study proposes a novel generalized dynamic factor tail-restricted integrated regression function (GDF-IRF) network to investigate the idiosyncratic tail risk spillover in Chinese commodity futures markets. The core advance of this model lies in its design as a directed tail-conditional dependence network, which is built on factor-filtered idiosyncratic components and aggregated over short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. Using data from 1,604 trading days spanning March 2018 to November 2024, we analyze idiosyncratic tail risk transmission patterns across different frequency domains and crisis periods (e.g., the US-China trade friction, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war). Our results show that: (1) The contagion in the idiosyncratic tail risk network is significantly higher than that in the tail risk network. Furthermore, the former is stronger in the upper tail than in the lower tail, whereas the latter follows the opposite trend. (2) Coal-related and soybean futures are the main idiosyncratic risk transmitters in the lower and upper tails, while oil-related and soybean meal futures act as idiosyncratic risk receivers in the lower and upper tails. (3) The regression results indicate that both commodity characteristics and macroeconomic factors drive futures’ contagiousness, but their effects are asymmetric. Investors and policymakers could use our findings as early warning tools to identify influential risk spreaders during crisis periods.
本文提出了一种新的广义动态因子尾约束综合回归函数网络,用于研究中国商品期货市场的特殊尾部风险溢出。该模型的核心进步在于其作为定向尾条件依赖网络的设计,该网络建立在因素过滤的特质组件上,并在短期、中期和长期范围内进行汇总。利用2018年3月至2024年11月的1604个交易日的数据,我们分析了不同频率域和危机时期(例如,中美贸易摩擦、新冠肺炎大流行和俄乌战争)的特殊尾部风险传播模式。研究结果表明:(1)异质性尾部风险网络中的传染效应显著高于普通尾部风险网络。此外,前者在上尾强于下尾,而后者则相反。(2)煤炭期货和大豆期货是上下尾的主要特异风险传递者,油类期货和豆粕期货是上下尾的特异风险接收者。(3)回归结果表明,商品特征和宏观经济因素共同驱动期货传染,但两者的影响是不对称的。投资者和政策制定者可以利用我们的发现作为早期预警工具,在危机时期识别有影响力的风险传播者。
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引用次数: 0
Potential for energy poverty reduction by error decomposition with machine learning 通过机器学习的误差分解来减少能源贫困的潜力
IF 8.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.032
Sarath Chandra Koppolu , Lisa Hoeschle , Lucie Maruejols
Energy poverty remains a pressing global challenge, with approximately 685 million people lacking electricity access and 2.1 billion without clean cooking fuels. Traditional metrics often fail to capture the multidimensional nature of energy deprivation, prompting the adoption of frameworks like the World Bank’s Multi-Tier Framework (MTF). However, existing approaches overlook the concept of potential to identify where and how energy poverty reduction efforts can be most effective. This study bridges this gap with an error decomposition framework that analyzes whether household-level or regional-level interventions should be prioritized. Using machine learning’s (ML) XGBoost, we develop a predictive model of multidimensional energy poverty for Nepal, Myanmar, and Cambodia that helps avoid misspecification problems and outperforms traditional econometric methods, achieving test accuracies of up to 0.78 when incorporating spatial fixed effects. The error decomposition reveals systematic underperformance in certain regions and demographic groups, highlighting latent opportunities for policy intervention. Key findings indicate that energy poverty is shaped by both household-level characteristics and systemic regional factors, with urban-rural and ethnic disparities playing significant roles. In Nepal, marginalized ethnic groups exhibit persistent energy deprivation despite high socioeconomic status, while Myanmar’s urban areas suffer from unreliable supply despite high connection rates. Cambodia’s rural households remain underserved, emphasizing the need for decentralized energy solutions. By distinguishing between reducible and irreducible error components, our framework provides actionable insights for targeted policy interventions, advancing progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7).
能源贫困仍然是一个紧迫的全球挑战,约有6.85亿人无法获得电力,21亿人没有清洁的烹饪燃料。传统的衡量标准往往无法反映能源匮乏的多维性,这促使人们采用了世界银行的多层框架(MTF)等框架。然而,现有的方法忽略了潜力的概念,即确定在何处以及如何减少能源贫困的努力可以最有效。本研究通过错误分解框架弥补了这一差距,该框架分析了应优先考虑家庭一级还是区域一级的干预措施。利用机器学习(ML) XGBoost,我们为尼泊尔、缅甸和柬埔寨开发了一个多维能源贫困预测模型,该模型有助于避免规格错误问题,并且优于传统的计量经济学方法,在纳入空间固定效应时实现了高达0.78的测试精度。误差分解揭示了某些地区和人口群体的系统性表现不佳,突出了政策干预的潜在机会。主要研究结果表明,能源贫困既有家庭层面的特征,也有系统性的区域因素,城乡差异和民族差异在其中起着重要作用。在尼泊尔,尽管社会经济地位很高,但边缘化的少数民族仍表现出持续的能源匮乏;而缅甸的城市地区尽管接入率很高,但供应不可靠。柬埔寨的农村家庭仍然得不到充分的服务,这强调了分散能源解决方案的必要性。通过区分可简化和不可简化的错误成分,我们的框架为有针对性的政策干预提供了可操作的见解,从而推动实现可持续发展目标7 (SDG 7)。
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引用次数: 0
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