Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献_第2页

Waves of uncertainty: Time-varying spillovers of China’s economic policies on belt and road economies 不确定性浪潮：中国经济政策对“一带一路”经济体的时变溢出效应

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.021

Jingyi Wang , Weijiang Liu , Shu Wang , Baicheng Zhou

In recent years, rising external economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has exerted significant influence on the economic and financial stability of emerging markets. Using quarterly macroeconomic data from 154 economies along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) between 2013 and 2022, this paper applies a K-means clustering approach to classify these economies into four groups. It constructs a TVP-SV-FAVAR model to systematically examine the dynamic spillover effects of China’s EPU (CNEPU) on BRI countries and regions from four dimensions: production, consumption, investment, and trade. The main findings are as follows: (1) CNEPU generates significant spillover effects on BRI economies, with pronounced heterogeneity driven by differences in macroeconomic fundamentals and the degree of economic linkages with China. (2) The spillover effects demonstrate both persistence and time variation: in the short run, they spread rapidly through market expectations and capital flows, whereas in the long run, their magnitude diminishes but their duration remains substantial. (3) Mechanism tests reveal that policy uncertainty transmits through both financial markets and economic fundamentals, with heterogeneous impacts arising from fiscal, monetary, trade, and exchange rate policy uncertainty. These findings carry important implications for emerging economies in formulating targeted policies to strengthen their resilience against external shocks.

近年来，外部经济政策不确定性的上升对新兴市场国家的经济金融稳定产生了重大影响。本文利用2013年至2022年“一带一路”沿线154个经济体的季度宏观经济数据，采用k均值聚类方法将这些经济体分为四类。构建了TVP-SV-FAVAR模型，从生产、消费、投资、贸易四个维度系统考察了中国EPU对“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的动态溢出效应。研究发现：(1)CNEPU对“一带一路”经济体产生了显著的溢出效应，且受宏观经济基本面差异和与中国经济联系程度差异的驱动，其异质性显著。(2)外溢效应具有持久性和时变性，短期内通过市场预期和资本流动迅速扩散，而长期内外溢效应强度减小，但持续时间较长。(3)机制检验表明，政策不确定性通过金融市场和经济基本面传导，财政、货币、贸易和汇率政策的不确定性产生异质影响。这些发现对新兴经济体制定有针对性的政策以增强抵御外部冲击的能力具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Jump further or climb higher? Impact of different export upgrading strategies on exporter survival” [Economic Analysis and Policy, Volume 88, December 2025, Pages 2098-2115] “跳得更远还是爬得更高？”不同出口升级策略对出口商生存的影响”[经济分析与政策，第88卷，2025年12月，第2098-2115页]

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.020

Yi Zhou , Xianjuan Chen , Donghan Zou

引用次数: 0

Decentralization and air pollution: Unintended environmental consequences of China’s fiscal hierarchy reform 分权与空气污染：中国财政等级制度改革的意外环境后果

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.028

Yongli Chen , Jinpeng Yin , Yudan Cai

This study examines the unintended environmental consequences of a hierarchical fiscal reform in China and their broader economic implications. Focusing on the Province-Managing-County (PMC) reform, which flattened the fiscal hierarchy by bypassing prefectures in budgetary matters, we exploit its staggered rollout and apply a Difference-in-Differences strategy to county-level panel data from 2000 to 2012. The results show that the reform significantly increased annual average PM2.5 concentrations, indicating a deterioration in local air quality. Moreover, rather than a growth–pollution trade-off, GDP per capita also declined in treated counties, suggesting that the policy imposed both environmental and economic costs. These adverse effects were more pronounced in provinces with a larger initial span of control, consistent with weakened oversight under broader supervisory burdens. Mechanism analysis indicates that the reform reshaped county-level fiscal priorities, reducing investments in environmental protection and development while increasing administrative expenditures. At the firm level, regulatory enforcement weakened, leading to greater emissions and reduced adoption of pollution control technologies. Overall, the findings highlight the risks of decentralization reforms implemented without commensurate monitoring capacity, particularly in governance systems with limited administrative bandwidth.

本研究考察了中国分级财政改革的意外环境后果及其更广泛的经济影响。以省管县（PMC）改革为重点，该改革通过在预算问题上绕过地级市，使财政等级扁平化，我们利用其交错推出，并对2000年至2012年的县级面板数据应用差异中的差异策略。结果表明，改革显著提高了年均PM2.5浓度，表明当地空气质量恶化。此外，与增长与污染之间的权衡不同，受政策影响的县的人均GDP也有所下降，这表明该政策既造成了环境成本，也造成了经济成本。这些不利影响在初始控制范围较大的省份更为明显，这与在更大监管负担下监管力度减弱相一致。机制分析表明，改革重塑了县级财政重点，减少了对环境保护和发展的投资，增加了行政支出。在企业一级，监管执法力度减弱，导致排放量增加，污染控制技术的采用减少。总的来说，调查结果突出了在没有相应监测能力的情况下实施权力下放改革的风险，特别是在行政带宽有限的治理系统中。

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引用次数: 0

Sustainability of fiscal policy: A DSGE analysis using export tax refunds as an example 财政政策的可持续性：以出口退税为例的DSGE分析

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.03.002

Zhuoyuan Qi , Xiumei An , Shiqin Yu

This paper investigates export VAT rebates as a fiscal policy instrument by developing a two-country open-economy DSGE model that embeds both a financial accelerator and labor market search-and-matching frictions. The model is used to analyze the transmission channels, marginal effects, and fiscal sustainability of export rebate policies under current structural constraints. In contrast to the existing literature, which largely emphasizes the positive incentive effects of export rebates, this study identifies diminishing effects and clear effectiveness boundaries when resource dependence, financial frictions, and involutionary competition exist. The results show that export VAT rebates operate through three channels—price incentives, financing alleviation, and firm behavioral adjustments—but their effects are not stable. Policy impacts are significantly amplified under moderate frictions, while excessively strong or weak frictions obstruct transmission. High dependence on imported resources leads to “benefit leakage,” weakening terminal price advantages. Moreover, wage bargaining constraints in the labor market and employment choices in the public sector reinforce involutionary competition, preventing rebate gains from being transformed into innovation and capital accumulation, thereby reducing long-term real returns per unit of fiscal cost. Compared with other fiscal instruments, export VAT rebates are characterized by rapid effects, relatively lighter fiscal burdens, and weaker persistence, making them more suitable for short-term stabilization rather than structural guidance. The findings indicate that the effectiveness boundaries of export VAT rebates depend on fiscal balance constraints, financial transmission efficiency, and the degree of alignment with industrial structure.

本文通过建立一个包含金融加速器和劳动力市场搜索匹配摩擦的两国开放经济DSGE模型，对出口增值税退税作为一种财政政策工具进行了研究。利用该模型分析了当前结构性约束下出口退税政策的传导渠道、边际效应和财政可持续性。与现有文献大量强调出口退税的积极激励效应不同，本研究发现，在资源依赖、金融摩擦和革命竞争存在的情况下，出口退税的激励效应逐渐减弱，并且存在明显的有效性边界。结果表明，出口增值税退税通过价格激励、融资缓解和企业行为调整三个渠道发挥作用，但其效果并不稳定。适度摩擦会显著放大政策影响，而过强或过弱的摩擦会阻碍传导。对进口资源的高度依赖导致“利益泄漏”，削弱终端价格优势。此外，劳动力市场的工资谈判约束和公共部门的就业选择加强了革命竞争，阻止了回扣收益转化为创新和资本积累，从而降低了单位财政成本的长期实际回报。与其他财政工具相比，出口增值税退税具有见效快、财政负担相对较轻、持续性较弱的特点，更适合短期稳定而非结构性引导。研究结果表明，出口增值税退税的有效性边界取决于财政平衡约束、财政传导效率和与产业结构的契合程度。

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引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence and digital industry agglomeration development -Theory and empirical analysis from urban economics 人工智能与数字产业集聚发展——城市经济学的理论与实证分析

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.02.014

Lingxiao Li , Sensen Jin , Junli Zhao , Cunxiao Ma , Yu Diao

The fundamental principle of urban economics is the analysis of the spatial distribution of economic activities and urban forms. Artificial intelligence is a revolutionary force that is reshaping the underlying logic of digital industry agglomeration. This article employs urban panel data from 2006–2022 to explore the theoretical logic and underlying mechanisms of artificial intelligence in the digital industry agglomerations development. Research has found that artificial intelligence enhances the digital industry agglomeration development by improving urban management efficiency, human capital, and innovation levels. In addition, the promoting effect of artificial intelligence on the digital industry agglomeration development is more significant in central and western cities, as well as small and medium-sized cities and higher level foreign investment. This study offers insights from the perspective of artificial intelligence to augment the theoretical framework of urban economics. Additionally, it provides a foundation for understanding the enhancement of digital industry agglomeration development.

城市经济学的基本原理是分析经济活动和城市形态的空间分布。人工智能是一股革命性的力量，正在重塑数字产业集聚的底层逻辑。本文采用2006-2022年的城市面板数据，探讨人工智能在数字产业集群发展中的理论逻辑和深层机制。研究发现，人工智能通过提高城市管理效率、人力资本和创新水平，促进了数字产业集聚发展。此外，人工智能对数字产业集聚发展的促进作用在中西部城市、中小城市和更高层次的外资中更为显著。本研究从人工智能的视角对城市经济学的理论框架进行了扩充。此外，为理解数字产业集聚发展的增强提供了基础。

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引用次数: 0

How early-life grandparenting experience shapes later non-cognitive abilities: Evidence from rural China 幼年的祖父母经历如何塑造后来的非认知能力：来自中国农村的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.02.011

Yueli Luo , Yongtao Shen , Yang Li , Zhimu Zhou

Grandparents have increasingly assumed childcare responsibilities. We attempt to investigate the causal relationship between early-life grandparenting experience and children’s later non-cognitive abilities. Using longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) for 2010 and 2018, this study employs an instrumental variable methodology and identifies children’s non-cognitive abilities by the Big Five Personality. The main findings are as follows: Firstly, early-life grandparenting experience significantly impairs children’s later non-cognitive abilities development. Secondly, the research highlights the mechanism role of family environments, school involvement as well as children’s self-discrepancy. Finally, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the adverse effects on non-cognitive abilities are more pronounced among pre-high school children. These findings offer valuable insights for fertility and caregiving policies, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to support the development of children from vulnerable backgrounds.

祖父母越来越多地承担起照顾孩子的责任。我们试图探讨早期祖父母经历与儿童后来的非认知能力之间的因果关系。本研究利用中国家庭面板研究（CFPS） 2010年和2018年的纵向数据，采用工具变量方法，通过大五人格识别儿童的非认知能力。主要研究结果如下：第一，早期祖父母经历显著影响儿童后期非认知能力的发展。其次，研究突出了家庭环境、学校参与和儿童自我差异的机制作用。最后，异质性分析显示，非认知能力的不利影响在学前儿童中更为明显。这些发现为生育和护理政策提供了宝贵的见解，强调需要有针对性的干预措施，以支持弱势背景儿童的发展。

引用次数: 0

Can digital transformation contribute to high-quality energy development: Evidence from China 数字化转型能否促进高质量能源发展：来自中国的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.014

Yuhuan Zhao, Jia-hao Wu

As a new engine of technological change, digital transformation has a significant impact on high-quality energy development (HQED). Using Chinese provincial panel data from 2011 to 2024, this study constructs a two-way fixed-effects model to empirically investigate the impact of digital transformation on HQED. We further examine the influence of policy support for digital transformation on HQED. We find that digital transformation significantly contributes to HQED and this finding holds following a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive effect is not universal but is primarily observed in the eastern and western regions and in regions with low energy intensity. The effects of digital transformation foundations and digital transformation labor are the most pronounced of the digital transformation sub-indicators. Mechanism analysis reveals that green technological innovation, industrial robot application, and education improvement are key channels through which digital transformation affects HQED. Furthermore, moderating and threshold models reveal that policy support can significantly enhance the positive effects of digital transformation on HQED, and the effect exhibits a nonlinear trend of marginal incrementality as policy support increases. This study provides new insights for synchronizing digitization and HQED, offering policymakers empirical evidence of the value of leveraging digital upgrades as a sustainable driver of energy development.

作为技术变革的新引擎，数字化转型对能源高质量发展具有重要影响。本文利用2011 - 2024年中国省级面板数据，构建双向固定效应模型，实证考察数字化转型对高绩效教育的影响。我们进一步研究了数字化转型的政策支持对HQED的影响。我们发现数字化转型对HQED有显著贡献，这一发现在一系列稳健性和内质性测试后成立。异质性分析表明，东部和西部地区以及能源强度较低的地区具有显著的正向效应，但并非普遍存在。数字化转型基础和数字化转型劳动力的影响是数字化转型子指标中最明显的。机制分析表明，绿色技术创新、工业机器人应用和教育改进是数字化转型影响HQED的关键渠道。此外，调节模型和阈值模型显示，政策支持显著增强了数字化转型对HQED的正向效应，且随着政策支持的增加，这种效应呈现出边际递增的非线性趋势。本研究为同步数字化和HQED提供了新的见解，为政策制定者提供了利用数字化升级作为能源发展可持续驱动力的价值的经验证据。

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引用次数: 0

Innovation, structural changes, and income inequality: New insights from machine learning approach 创新、结构变化和收入不平等：来自机器学习方法的新见解

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.02.017

Ibrahim Mohamed Ali Ali , Sherine Boshra Ghaly

Innovation and structural changes dynamics in developed and developing countries require measuring their potential heterogeneous effects on income inequality, which has become a major global concern guiding recent empirical research. In this context, the current study aims to estimate the distributional consequences of innovation and structural change using parametric and nonparametric estimation techniques for 29 developed and 14 developing countries from 1996 to 2020. The results of Kernel Regularized Least Squares estimations (KRLS) show nonlinear and time-varying paths of distributional effects of innovation and structural changes. Although innovation increases income inequality in both developed and developing countries, results support heterogeneous distributional effects of industrialization and deindustrialization as proxies for structural changes. Industrialization increases income inequality in developed countries and decreases it in developing countries, while deindustrialization reduces inequality in developed countries and increases it in developing countries. The study recommends policies to reduce income inequality associated with innovation processes in developed and developing countries. It argues that developing countries following the traditional path of structural change through deepening industrialization is beneficial for reducing income inequality, while implementing policies aimed at deepening deindustrialization represents a positive path towards reducing income inequality in developed countries.

发达国家和发展中国家的创新和结构变化动态需要衡量其对收入不平等的潜在异质性影响，这已成为指导最近实证研究的主要全球关注问题。在此背景下，本研究旨在利用参数和非参数估计技术对1996年至2020年29个发达国家和14个发展中国家的创新和结构变化的分布后果进行估计。核正则化最小二乘估计（KRLS）的结果显示了创新和结构变化的分布效应的非线性时变路径。尽管创新加剧了发达国家和发展中国家的收入不平等，但研究结果支持工业化和去工业化的异质性分配效应作为结构变化的代表。工业化增加了发达国家的收入不平等，减少了发展中国家的收入不平等，而去工业化减少了发达国家的收入不平等，增加了发展中国家的收入不平等。该研究为发达国家和发展中国家减少与创新过程相关的收入不平等提供了政策建议。本文认为，发展中国家走深化工业化的传统结构变革道路有利于减少收入不平等，而实施旨在深化去工业化的政策则是发达国家减少收入不平等的积极途径。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of antitrust enforcement on peer firm innovation: An empirical analysis based on Chinese merger review 反垄断执法对同行企业创新的影响：基于中国并购审查的实证分析

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.02.019

Fang Yi , Chenru Cao , Jingxuan Xu

Antitrust laws in major jurisdictions around the world all reflect a focus on innovation issues. How antitrust enforcement affects innovation is a very important issue to study. This study uses the Staggered Difference-in-Differences (Staggered DID) method to assess the impact of antitrust enforcement in China’s merger review on the innovation level and quality of peer firms (firms were not reviewed in the case but affected by the merger and antitrust case in the industry). The findings indicate that the implementation of antitrust enforcement in merger review significantly enhances the innovation level and quality of peer firms. The mechanism test results indicate that antitrust review compresses profit margins, prompting peer firms to increase their innovation efforts, rely on long-term financing to support innovation. Besides, peer firms receive positive feedback from capital markets in terms of expected future growth. The heterogeneity analysis further indicates that the integration of enforcement agencies, together with the associated adaptation process and coordination costs, has reduced the efficiency of antitrust enforcement, thereby weakening its positive effect on innovation. The promotion effect of antitrust enforcement in merger cases on innovation level and innovation quality is particularly significant for firms in the manufacturing and high-tech industries. From the perspective of firm size, the enforcement events exert a more pronounced positive effect on the innovation level and quality of large enterprises.

世界主要司法管辖区的反垄断法都反映了对创新问题的关注。反垄断执法如何影响创新是一个非常重要的研究问题。本研究采用交错差分法（交错DID）来评估中国并购审查中反垄断执法对同行企业创新水平和质量的影响（本案中企业未被审查，但受到行业内并购和反垄断案件的影响）。研究结果表明，在并购审查中实施反垄断执法显著提高了同行企业的创新水平和创新质量。机制检验结果表明，反垄断审查压缩了企业的利润空间，促使同行企业加大创新力度，依靠长期融资支持创新。此外，同行公司在预期未来增长方面得到了资本市场的积极反馈。异质性分析进一步表明，执法机构的整合以及相关的适应过程和协调成本降低了反垄断执法的效率，从而削弱了反垄断执法对创新的积极作用。并购案件中反垄断执法对企业创新水平和创新质量的促进作用在制造业和高技术产业尤为显著。从企业规模来看，执行事件对大型企业创新水平和质量的正向影响更为显著。

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引用次数: 0

Institutional Reform and Enterprise Digitalization: A Quasi-Natural Experiment in Cross-Border E-Commerce Pilot Zones 机构改革与企业数字化：跨境电子商务试验区的准自然实验

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.025

Wenjing Bi , Yue Min , Weiyin Xu , Xiaotao Zhang

Enterprise digital transformation is constrained by technological limitations but also by costs, incentives, and other factors shaped by institutional environment. However, the role of institutional innovation remains underexplored. Using 2012-2023 data on Chinese A-share listed firms, we exploit cross-border e-commerce pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the impact of institutional reform on digital transformation. Results show the reform promotes digital transformation by reducing institutional transaction costs, improving the digital environment, and expanding market opportunities. Further analyses show the effects are driven by local institutional innovation rather than spatial spillovers and enhance firm efficiency and innovation. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that institutional reform effects are stronger in firms with higher digitalization, lower information transparency, private enterprises, and regions with better digital infrastructure and southeast in China. The identified mechanisms and empirical evidence show how institutional reform promotes digital transformation and offer policy insights for other economies advancing digital economic development.

企业数字化转型不仅受到技术限制的制约，还受到成本、激励和制度环境等因素的制约。然而，制度创新的作用仍未得到充分发掘。利用2012-2023年中国a股上市公司数据，以跨境电子商务试验区为准自然实验，考察制度改革对数字化转型的影响。结果表明，改革通过降低制度交易成本、改善数字环境和扩大市场机会来促进数字化转型。进一步分析表明，这一效应是由地方制度创新驱动的，而不是由空间溢出驱动的，并能促进企业效率和创新。异质性分析表明，在信息化程度较高、信息透明度较低的企业、民营企业、数字基础设施较好的地区和东南部地区，制度改革效应更强。所识别的机制和经验证据显示了制度改革如何促进数字转型，并为其他经济体推进数字经济发展提供政策见解。

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引用次数: 0