Pub Date : 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.047
Min Liu , Jun Fang , Jun Li , Shaohui Zhang
The trend of financialization in Chinese enterprises has garnered significant attention. However, few studies explore this from the perspective of the social security payment burden of enterprises. This study, based on data from non-financial Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008–2022, employs a difference-in-differences model to analyze the effects of the Social Insurance Law on corporate financialization and its underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that the implementation of the China Social Insurance Law significantly increased the level of corporate financialization. Mechanism analysis reveals that this effect is primarily achieved through stimulating companies’ “reservoir” motivation and “investment substitution” motivation. Further analysis reveals that the Social Insurance Law’s promotion effect on corporate financialization is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises and those with high financial debt. This effect is also more significant in investment-type and hedging-type financial assets compared to speculative-type financial assets. This research helps to deepen the understanding of corporate investment and financing behavior.
{"title":"Social security payment burden and corporate financialization: Evidence from China’s social insurance law","authors":"Min Liu , Jun Fang , Jun Li , Shaohui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.047","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.047","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The trend of financialization in Chinese enterprises has garnered significant attention. However, few studies explore this from the perspective of the social security payment burden of enterprises. This study, based on data from non-financial Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008–2022, employs a difference-in-differences model to analyze the effects of the Social Insurance Law on corporate financialization and its underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that the implementation of the China Social Insurance Law significantly increased the level of corporate financialization. Mechanism analysis reveals that this effect is primarily achieved through stimulating companies’ “reservoir” motivation and “investment substitution” motivation. Further analysis reveals that the Social Insurance Law’s promotion effect on corporate financialization is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises and those with high financial debt. This effect is also more significant in investment-type and hedging-type financial assets compared to speculative-type financial assets. This research helps to deepen the understanding of corporate investment and financing behavior.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Pages 456-471"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146079419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.043
Fuyao Li , Yahua Yin
This study resolves the "Safe-Haven Paradox" by constructing a "Context-Frequency-Asset" unified framework to evaluate the defensive efficacy of Bitcoin, gold, and crude oil against global equities (2011–2023). Employing the quantile coherency approach, we capture non-linear tail dependence across multiple frequencies and shock archetypes, addressing the dimensional deficits of prior research. Findings reveal profound contextual heterogeneity driven by distinct economic mechanisms: while Bitcoin consistently serves as a short-term stabilizer, Gold’s medium-term defensive utility collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic due to a liquidity-driven "dash for cash". Conversely, crude oil emerged as a robust full-frequency safe haven during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, acting as a primary transmission channel for geopolitical risk. This research provides investors with scenario-adaptive hedging toolkits and offers policymakers frequency-specific regulatory insights to mitigate systemic risk contagion.
{"title":"Study on the safe-haven and hedging roles of bitcoin, gold, and crude oil on global stock markets in short-term, medium-to-long-term, and shock periods","authors":"Fuyao Li , Yahua Yin","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study resolves the \"Safe-Haven Paradox\" by constructing a \"Context-Frequency-Asset\" unified framework to evaluate the defensive efficacy of Bitcoin, gold, and crude oil against global equities (2011–2023). Employing the quantile coherency approach, we capture non-linear tail dependence across multiple frequencies and shock archetypes, addressing the dimensional deficits of prior research. Findings reveal profound contextual heterogeneity driven by distinct economic mechanisms: while Bitcoin consistently serves as a short-term stabilizer, Gold’s medium-term defensive utility collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic due to a liquidity-driven \"dash for cash\". Conversely, crude oil emerged as a robust full-frequency safe haven during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, acting as a primary transmission channel for geopolitical risk. This research provides investors with scenario-adaptive hedging toolkits and offers policymakers frequency-specific regulatory insights to mitigate systemic risk contagion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Pages 472-489"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146079486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-20DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.036
Juling Wang , Lihua Liu , Yi Chen , Yue’e Long
Against the backdrop of escalating ESG greenwashing risks demanding robust regulatory solutions, this study examines the efficacy of Environmental Liability Insurance (ELI) as a market-based governance tool to enhance corporate environmental accountability, leveraging China’s 2018 ELI pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment. Findings reveal that ELI significantly reduces ESG greenwashing by mitigating managerial short-termism, enhancing environmental transparency, and fostering green innovation. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the inhibitory effect of ELI on ESG greenwashing is more pronounced in non-SOEs, financially constrained firms, non-key polluters, weakly governed enterprises, firms outside the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and those in highly competitive industries. This study contributes to the literature on market-driven environmental governance by demonstrating how financial instruments can complement traditional regulatory approaches. It provides valuable insights for policymakers to promote the nationwide implementation of ELI and to tailor its application based on firm-specific characteristics, thereby facilitating sustainable corporate practices.
{"title":"Market-based environmental regulation and ESG greenwashing: Evidence from environmental liability insurance1","authors":"Juling Wang , Lihua Liu , Yi Chen , Yue’e Long","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Against the backdrop of escalating ESG greenwashing risks demanding robust regulatory solutions, this study examines the efficacy of Environmental Liability Insurance (ELI) as a market-based governance tool to enhance corporate environmental accountability, leveraging China’s 2018 ELI pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment. Findings reveal that ELI significantly reduces ESG greenwashing by mitigating managerial short-termism, enhancing environmental transparency, and fostering green innovation. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the inhibitory effect of ELI on ESG greenwashing is more pronounced in non-SOEs, financially constrained firms, non-key polluters, weakly governed enterprises, firms outside the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and those in highly competitive industries. This study contributes to the literature on market-driven environmental governance by demonstrating how financial instruments can complement traditional regulatory approaches. It provides valuable insights for policymakers to promote the nationwide implementation of ELI and to tailor its application based on firm-specific characteristics, thereby facilitating sustainable corporate practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Pages 436-455"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146079418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-20DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.037
Wei Chen , Zhichun Song , Yu Xie
Amid escalating climate risks and rising climate policy uncertainty (CPU), clarifying how institutional fragility, spatial interaction and technological change jointly influence energy transition (ET) has become a central analytical challenge. This study develops a theoretical framework of “institutional fragility-spatial co-operation-technological unlocking,” advancing beyond conventional linear analytical paradigms. Using provincial panel data from China covering the period 2011–2022, Spatial Models and multiple threshold regression methods are employed to examine the effects of CPU on ET. The results indicate that: (1) CPU significantly impedes ET, with more pronounced effects in non-technologically intensive regions, western provinces, and areas exposed to high climate risks; (2) while local CPU hinders ET, CPU in neighbouring regions exerts a positive spillover effect on local ET; (3) green technological innovation (GTI) and digital transformation (DT) exhibit nonlinear moderating effects, with substantive green innovation (SUG) displaying more substantial threshold effects than symbolic green innovation (SYG). Moreover, when the DT index exceeds a critical threshold, its effect shifts from inhibition to promotion. This study provides empirical evidence supporting threshold-sensitive climate governance strategies in developing countries. It highlights the importance of fostering disruptive green and digital technologies as core pillars of nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement.
{"title":"Energy transition across the climate policy uncertainty divide: The critical role of green technology innovation and digital transformation","authors":"Wei Chen , Zhichun Song , Yu Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid escalating climate risks and rising climate policy uncertainty (CPU), clarifying how institutional fragility, spatial interaction and technological change jointly influence energy transition (ET) has become a central analytical challenge. This study develops a theoretical framework of “institutional fragility-spatial co-operation-technological unlocking,” advancing beyond conventional linear analytical paradigms. Using provincial panel data from China covering the period 2011–2022, Spatial Models and multiple threshold regression methods are employed to examine the effects of CPU on ET. The results indicate that: (1) CPU significantly impedes ET, with more pronounced effects in non-technologically intensive regions, western provinces, and areas exposed to high climate risks; (2) while local CPU hinders ET, CPU in neighbouring regions exerts a positive spillover effect on local ET; (3) green technological innovation (GTI) and digital transformation (DT) exhibit nonlinear moderating effects, with substantive green innovation (SUG) displaying more substantial threshold effects than symbolic green innovation (SYG). Moreover, when the DT index exceeds a critical threshold, its effect shifts from inhibition to promotion. This study provides empirical evidence supporting threshold-sensitive climate governance strategies in developing countries. It highlights the importance of fostering disruptive green and digital technologies as core pillars of nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Pages 322-342"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146024755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.031
Duo Wang, Yunge Hu, Lijia Yang, Yanxi Li
Based on the Resource-Based Theory, this study systematically examines the impact of ESG structural imbalance on corporate green innovation from the dual perspectives of "strategy-driven" and "compliance-driven". The findings reveal that ESG structural imbalance significantly inhibits corporate green innovation, which supports the "compliance-driven" hypothesis. And the degradation in internal self-sustaining capability and constraints in external resource acquisition serve as primary mechanisms. In addition, state-owned enterprises or firms with operating in favorable external information environments can mitigate the negative effect of ESG structural imbalance on green innovation by buffering resource redundancy and reducing investor decision noise. Further analysis shows that ESG structural imbalance offsets the promoting effect of overall ESG performance on green innovation, preventing green innovation from achieving expected enhancement. Furthermore, the inhibitory effect of ESG structural imbalance on green innovation is primarily driven by the environmental dimension. And compared to substantive green innovation, ESG structural imbalance more substantially suppresses strategic green innovation and degrades green innovation quality. By focusing on corporate green innovation activities, this study expands the connotation of sustainable development theory from an internal ESG equilibrium perspective, offering policy insights for enterprises to optimize ESG strategic frameworks and for regulators to refine ESG disclosure systems.
{"title":"The equilibrium dilemma: ESG structural imbalance and corporate green innovation","authors":"Duo Wang, Yunge Hu, Lijia Yang, Yanxi Li","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on the Resource-Based Theory, this study systematically examines the impact of ESG structural imbalance on corporate green innovation from the dual perspectives of \"strategy-driven\" and \"compliance-driven\". The findings reveal that ESG structural imbalance significantly inhibits corporate green innovation, which supports the \"compliance-driven\" hypothesis. And the degradation in internal self-sustaining capability and constraints in external resource acquisition serve as primary mechanisms. In addition, state-owned enterprises or firms with operating in favorable external information environments can mitigate the negative effect of ESG structural imbalance on green innovation by buffering resource redundancy and reducing investor decision noise. Further analysis shows that ESG structural imbalance offsets the promoting effect of overall ESG performance on green innovation, preventing green innovation from achieving expected enhancement. Furthermore, the inhibitory effect of ESG structural imbalance on green innovation is primarily driven by the environmental dimension. And compared to substantive green innovation, ESG structural imbalance more substantially suppresses strategic green innovation and degrades green innovation quality. By focusing on corporate green innovation activities, this study expands the connotation of sustainable development theory from an internal ESG equilibrium perspective, offering policy insights for enterprises to optimize ESG strategic frameworks and for regulators to refine ESG disclosure systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Pages 504-534"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146079402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.033
Wenyi Yang, Yiting Chen
Reforms in public resource transactions are crucial for improving interregional resource allocation and fostering a unified national market. Since 2015, local governments have gradually advanced the integration of public resource trading platforms, yet empirical evidence on the effectiveness of these reforms remains limited. This study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) design to evaluate the impact of platform integration on regional coordinated development. The results show that integrating public resource trading platforms significantly promotes regional coordination. The effects are stronger for commodity transactions with high liquidity, competitive bidding, and greater bidder participation. Spatially, the policy impact is more evident in southern and eastern regions and in areas with greater bureaucratic mobility. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that platform integration enhances regional coordination by improving interregional market integration, standardizing transaction procedures, and increasing information transparency. These findings offer meaningful policy implications for China and other economies seeking to address domestic market fragmentation and strengthen regional coordination.
{"title":"Unified market construction and regional coordinated development: Evidence from the integration of China’s public resource trading platforms","authors":"Wenyi Yang, Yiting Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reforms in public resource transactions are crucial for improving interregional resource allocation and fostering a unified national market. Since 2015, local governments have gradually advanced the integration of public resource trading platforms, yet empirical evidence on the effectiveness of these reforms remains limited. This study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) design to evaluate the impact of platform integration on regional coordinated development. The results show that integrating public resource trading platforms significantly promotes regional coordination. The effects are stronger for commodity transactions with high liquidity, competitive bidding, and greater bidder participation. Spatially, the policy impact is more evident in southern and eastern regions and in areas with greater bureaucratic mobility. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that platform integration enhances regional coordination by improving interregional market integration, standardizing transaction procedures, and increasing information transparency. These findings offer meaningful policy implications for China and other economies seeking to address domestic market fragmentation and strengthen regional coordination.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Pages 549-575"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146079401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.030
Wei-Qiang Huang, Yilin Wang
This study proposes a novel generalized dynamic factor tail-restricted integrated regression function (GDF-IRF) network to investigate the idiosyncratic tail risk spillover in Chinese commodity futures markets. The core advance of this model lies in its design as a directed tail-conditional dependence network, which is built on factor-filtered idiosyncratic components and aggregated over short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. Using data from 1,604 trading days spanning March 2018 to November 2024, we analyze idiosyncratic tail risk transmission patterns across different frequency domains and crisis periods (e.g., the US-China trade friction, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war). Our results show that: (1) The contagion in the idiosyncratic tail risk network is significantly higher than that in the tail risk network. Furthermore, the former is stronger in the upper tail than in the lower tail, whereas the latter follows the opposite trend. (2) Coal-related and soybean futures are the main idiosyncratic risk transmitters in the lower and upper tails, while oil-related and soybean meal futures act as idiosyncratic risk receivers in the lower and upper tails. (3) The regression results indicate that both commodity characteristics and macroeconomic factors drive futures’ contagiousness, but their effects are asymmetric. Investors and policymakers could use our findings as early warning tools to identify influential risk spreaders during crisis periods.
{"title":"Idiosyncratic tail risk spillover of Chinese commodity futures markets","authors":"Wei-Qiang Huang, Yilin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes a novel generalized dynamic factor tail-restricted integrated regression function (GDF-IRF) network to investigate the idiosyncratic tail risk spillover in Chinese commodity futures markets. The core advance of this model lies in its design as a directed tail-conditional dependence network, which is built on factor-filtered idiosyncratic components and aggregated over short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. Using data from 1,604 trading days spanning March 2018 to November 2024, we analyze idiosyncratic tail risk transmission patterns across different frequency domains and crisis periods (e.g., the US-China trade friction, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war). Our results show that: (1) The contagion in the idiosyncratic tail risk network is significantly higher than that in the tail risk network. Furthermore, the former is stronger in the upper tail than in the lower tail, whereas the latter follows the opposite trend. (2) Coal-related and soybean futures are the main idiosyncratic risk transmitters in the lower and upper tails, while oil-related and soybean meal futures act as idiosyncratic risk receivers in the lower and upper tails. (3) The regression results indicate that both commodity characteristics and macroeconomic factors drive futures’ contagiousness, but their effects are asymmetric. Investors and policymakers could use our findings as early warning tools to identify influential risk spreaders during crisis periods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Pages 650-680"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146079400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.032
Sarath Chandra Koppolu , Lisa Hoeschle , Lucie Maruejols
Energy poverty remains a pressing global challenge, with approximately 685 million people lacking electricity access and 2.1 billion without clean cooking fuels. Traditional metrics often fail to capture the multidimensional nature of energy deprivation, prompting the adoption of frameworks like the World Bank’s Multi-Tier Framework (MTF). However, existing approaches overlook the concept of potential to identify where and how energy poverty reduction efforts can be most effective. This study bridges this gap with an error decomposition framework that analyzes whether household-level or regional-level interventions should be prioritized. Using machine learning’s (ML) XGBoost, we develop a predictive model of multidimensional energy poverty for Nepal, Myanmar, and Cambodia that helps avoid misspecification problems and outperforms traditional econometric methods, achieving test accuracies of up to 0.78 when incorporating spatial fixed effects. The error decomposition reveals systematic underperformance in certain regions and demographic groups, highlighting latent opportunities for policy intervention. Key findings indicate that energy poverty is shaped by both household-level characteristics and systemic regional factors, with urban-rural and ethnic disparities playing significant roles. In Nepal, marginalized ethnic groups exhibit persistent energy deprivation despite high socioeconomic status, while Myanmar’s urban areas suffer from unreliable supply despite high connection rates. Cambodia’s rural households remain underserved, emphasizing the need for decentralized energy solutions. By distinguishing between reducible and irreducible error components, our framework provides actionable insights for targeted policy interventions, advancing progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7).
{"title":"Potential for energy poverty reduction by error decomposition with machine learning","authors":"Sarath Chandra Koppolu , Lisa Hoeschle , Lucie Maruejols","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy poverty remains a pressing global challenge, with approximately 685 million people lacking electricity access and 2.1 billion without clean cooking fuels. Traditional metrics often fail to capture the multidimensional nature of energy deprivation, prompting the adoption of frameworks like the World Bank’s Multi-Tier Framework (MTF). However, existing approaches overlook the concept of potential to identify where and how energy poverty reduction efforts can be most effective. This study bridges this gap with an error decomposition framework that analyzes whether household-level or regional-level interventions should be prioritized. Using machine learning’s (ML) XGBoost, we develop a predictive model of multidimensional energy poverty for Nepal, Myanmar, and Cambodia that helps avoid misspecification problems and outperforms traditional econometric methods, achieving test accuracies of up to 0.78 when incorporating spatial fixed effects. The error decomposition reveals systematic underperformance in certain regions and demographic groups, highlighting latent opportunities for policy intervention. Key findings indicate that energy poverty is shaped by both household-level characteristics and systemic regional factors, with urban-rural and ethnic disparities playing significant roles. In Nepal, marginalized ethnic groups exhibit persistent energy deprivation despite high socioeconomic status, while Myanmar’s urban areas suffer from unreliable supply despite high connection rates. Cambodia’s rural households remain underserved, emphasizing the need for decentralized energy solutions. By distinguishing between reducible and irreducible error components, our framework provides actionable insights for targeted policy interventions, advancing progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Pages 417-435"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146079472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-15DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.028
Yongli Chen , Jinpeng Yin , Yudan Cai
This study examines the unintended environmental consequences of a hierarchical fiscal reform in China and their broader economic implications. Focusing on the Province-Managing-County (PMC) reform, which flattened the fiscal hierarchy by bypassing prefectures in budgetary matters, we exploit its staggered rollout and apply a Difference-in-Differences strategy to county-level panel data from 2000 to 2012. The results show that the reform significantly increased annual average PM2.5 concentrations, indicating a deterioration in local air quality. Moreover, rather than a growth–pollution trade-off, GDP per capita also declined in treated counties, suggesting that the policy imposed both environmental and economic costs. These adverse effects were more pronounced in provinces with a larger initial span of control, consistent with weakened oversight under broader supervisory burdens. Mechanism analysis indicates that the reform reshaped county-level fiscal priorities, reducing investments in environmental protection and development while increasing administrative expenditures. At the firm level, regulatory enforcement weakened, leading to greater emissions and reduced adoption of pollution control technologies. Overall, the findings highlight the risks of decentralization reforms implemented without commensurate monitoring capacity, particularly in governance systems with limited administrative bandwidth.
{"title":"Decentralization and air pollution: Unintended environmental consequences of China’s fiscal hierarchy reform","authors":"Yongli Chen , Jinpeng Yin , Yudan Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the unintended environmental consequences of a hierarchical fiscal reform in China and their broader economic implications. Focusing on the Province-Managing-County (PMC) reform, which flattened the fiscal hierarchy by bypassing prefectures in budgetary matters, we exploit its staggered rollout and apply a Difference-in-Differences strategy to county-level panel data from 2000 to 2012. The results show that the reform significantly increased annual average PM2.5 concentrations, indicating a deterioration in local air quality. Moreover, rather than a growth–pollution trade-off, GDP per capita also declined in treated counties, suggesting that the policy imposed both environmental and economic costs. These adverse effects were more pronounced in provinces with a larger initial span of control, consistent with weakened oversight under broader supervisory burdens. Mechanism analysis indicates that the reform reshaped county-level fiscal priorities, reducing investments in environmental protection and development while increasing administrative expenditures. At the firm level, regulatory enforcement weakened, leading to greater emissions and reduced adoption of pollution control technologies. Overall, the findings highlight the risks of decentralization reforms implemented without commensurate monitoring capacity, particularly in governance systems with limited administrative bandwidth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Pages 266-284"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146024754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-15DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.029
Yiru Chen , Yaojia Liang , Jiacan Gong , Wei Liu
This paper examines the impact of agricultural modernization on common prosperity in China and uncovers the mechanisms through which modernization promotes inclusive and equitable development. Using provincial panel data from 2011 to 2023, the study constructs a comprehensive agricultural modernization index and a multidimensional common prosperity index to analyze both direct and indirect effects. The results demonstrate that agricultural modernization significantly advances common prosperity by improving agricultural productivity, increasing farmers’ income, and enhancing rural living standards. Further analysis identifies non-agricultural income and non-agricultural employment as critical mediating channels through which modernization facilitates income diversification and labor mobility, thereby narrowing urban–rural income gaps. In addition, digital infrastructure plays a significant moderating role, amplifying the positive effects of agricultural modernization by improving production efficiency, expanding non-agricultural job opportunities, and strengthening the inclusiveness of economic growth. Robustness tests using propensity score matching, the Heckman two-stage model, and lagged variable estimation confirm the stability of the results. Overall, the findings highlight that agricultural modernization not only contributes to economic growth but also enhances income redistribution and social welfare, laying a solid foundation for achieving common prosperity. Policy efforts should therefore focus on promoting coordinated development between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, expanding digital infrastructure in rural areas, and improving the inclusiveness and sustainability of agricultural modernization.
{"title":"How does agricultural modernization promote common prosperity? Evidence from non-agricultural transformation and digital infrastructure","authors":"Yiru Chen , Yaojia Liang , Jiacan Gong , Wei Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of agricultural modernization on common prosperity in China and uncovers the mechanisms through which modernization promotes inclusive and equitable development. Using provincial panel data from 2011 to 2023, the study constructs a comprehensive agricultural modernization index and a multidimensional common prosperity index to analyze both direct and indirect effects. The results demonstrate that agricultural modernization significantly advances common prosperity by improving agricultural productivity, increasing farmers’ income, and enhancing rural living standards. Further analysis identifies non-agricultural income and non-agricultural employment as critical mediating channels through which modernization facilitates income diversification and labor mobility, thereby narrowing urban–rural income gaps. In addition, digital infrastructure plays a significant moderating role, amplifying the positive effects of agricultural modernization by improving production efficiency, expanding non-agricultural job opportunities, and strengthening the inclusiveness of economic growth. Robustness tests using propensity score matching, the Heckman two-stage model, and lagged variable estimation confirm the stability of the results. Overall, the findings highlight that agricultural modernization not only contributes to economic growth but also enhances income redistribution and social welfare, laying a solid foundation for achieving common prosperity. Policy efforts should therefore focus on promoting coordinated development between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, expanding digital infrastructure in rural areas, and improving the inclusiveness and sustainability of agricultural modernization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Pages 358-377"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146025364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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