Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献_第2页

Does administrative division adjustment reduce air pollution? Evidence from city-county mergers in China 行政区划调整会减少空气污染吗？中国市县合并的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.031

Administrative division adjustment plays a crucial role in transforming the spatial layout of cities and effectively contributes to green transformation and high-quality regional economic development. We empirically investigate the impact of administrative division adjustment, exemplified by city-county mergers (CCM), on air pollution using the difference-in-differences method. Our results demonstrate that CCM significantly reduces air pollution, which passes a series of robustness tests including heterogeneous treatment effect tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that CCM reduces air pollution by optimizing industrial structure, promoting market allocation, and constraining government size; geo-climatic conditions significantly moderate the haze reduction effect of CCM. Further analyses indicate that the haze reduction effect of CCM is more pronounced in the eastern and western regions, the southeast regions of the Hu Line, and non-resource-based regions. Moreover, CCM not only alleviates air pollution in border areas and mitigates the pollution boundary effect but also yields the social welfare effect. This paper provides valuable insights for maximizing the haze reduction potential of administrative division adjustment, understanding the role of Chinese-style decentralization in regional air pollution management, especially in border areas, and supporting the achievement of carbon emission reduction and sustainable development goals.

行政区划调整在城市空间布局转型中起着至关重要的作用，并能有效促进绿色转型和区域经济的高质量发展。我们采用差分法实证研究了以市县合并（CCM）为代表的行政区划调整对空气污染的影响。结果表明，市县合并能显著减少空气污染，并通过了一系列稳健性检验，包括异质性处理效应检验。机理分析表明，CCM 通过优化产业结构、促进市场配置和限制政府规模来减少空气污染；地理气候条件显著缓和了 CCM 的雾霾减少效应。进一步分析表明，CCM 的减霾效果在东部和西部地区、胡线东南部地区以及非资源型地区更为明显。此外，CCM 不仅能缓解边境地区的空气污染，减轻污染边界效应，还能产生社会福利效应。本文为最大限度地发挥行政区划调整的减霾潜力，理解中国式分权在区域大气污染管理（尤其是边境地区）中的作用，以及支持碳减排和可持续发展目标的实现提供了有价值的启示。

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引用次数: 0

Digital economy, aging of the labor force, and employment transformation of migrant workers: Evidence from China 数字经济、劳动力老龄化与农民工就业转型：来自中国的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.032

Migrant workers are the key group of employment work. Promoting the employment transformation of migrant workers under the background of the booming digital economy and the deepening aging degree is related to the overall stability of employment, but also to rural revitalization and common prosperity. This paper uses five waves of data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2012 to 2020 to explore the impact of the aging of the labor force on the employment transformation of migrant workers using multiple Logit regression models, and systematically and deeply explores the role of the digital economy in this process and its mechanism. The main findings of this study are as follows: firstly, the aging of the labor force significantly inhibits the employment transformation of migrant workers, which is mainly reflected in the inhibition of their transformation from traditional industries to new economy industries. Secondly, the digital economy significantly promotes the employment transformation of migrant workers and effectively alleviates the inhibitory effect of the aging of the labor force on the employment transformation of migrant workers. And it mainly plays its role by promoting the industrial structure upgrading, and the social capital and human capital accumulation of migrant workers. Thirdly, the mitigation effect of the digital economy is more effective among high-skilled migrant workers, young and middle-aged migrant workers, rural migrant workers, as well as migrant workers in eastern cities, large-sized cities, and cities with high digital development levels. Based on the above research conclusions, this article proposes relevant policy recommendations for actively responding to the aging of the labor force and fully leveraging the mitigating effects of the digital economy.

农民工是就业工作的重点群体。在数字经济蓬勃发展、老龄化程度不断加深的背景下，促进农民工就业转型，关系到就业稳定大局，也关系到乡村振兴和共同富裕。本文利用中国家庭面板研究（CFPS）2012-2020年的五波数据，采用多元Logit回归模型探讨了劳动力老龄化对农民工就业转型的影响，并系统深入地探讨了数字经济在这一过程中的作用及其机制。本研究的主要结论如下：第一，劳动力老龄化显著抑制农民工就业转型，主要体现在抑制农民工从传统产业向新经济产业转型。其次，数字经济极大地促进了农民工的就业转型，有效缓解了劳动力老龄化对农民工就业转型的抑制作用。而数字经济主要通过促进产业结构升级、促进农民工的社会资本和人力资本积累来发挥作用。第三，数字经济对高技能农民工、中青年农民工、农民工以及东部城市、大城市和数字化发展水平较高城市的农民工的缓解作用更为有效。基于上述研究结论，本文提出了积极应对劳动力老龄化、充分发挥数字经济缓解效应的相关政策建议。

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引用次数: 0

Does environmental protection tax impact corporate ESG greenwashing? A quasi-natural experiment in China 环境保护税是否会影响企业的环境、社会和治理（ESG）"洗绿 "行为？中国的准自然实验

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.029

The recently implemented environmental protection tax (EPT) policy in China provides the opportunity to conduct a quasi-natural experiment to empirically evaluate environmental regulations’ impact on corporate practices. We adopt the difference-in-differences method to analyze the effect and mechanisms of the EPT on corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) greenwashing based on Chinese A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2021. The empirical results show that the EPT drives companies to engage in ESG greenwashing, significantly increasing ESG greenwashing by approximately 13.16 %. The mechanism tests demonstrate that the EPT exerts governance pressure but does not create more resources, making companies more likely to achieve compliance through greenwashing. Furthermore, the effect of the EPT on ESG greenwashing is more pronounced for large companies and those located in regions with high economic development and strong regulatory enforcement. Our study provides solid evidence with valuable implications for improving the EPT policy to achieve green and sustainable development.

中国最近实施的环境保护税（EPT）政策为开展准自然实验以实证评估环境法规对企业行为的影响提供了机会。我们以 2015 年至 2021 年的中国 A 股上市公司为研究对象，采用差分法分析了环保税对企业环境、社会和治理（ESG）"洗绿 "行为的影响及其机制。实证结果表明，EPT促使企业进行ESG绿化，使ESG绿化显著增加约13.16%。机制检验表明，EPT 施加了治理压力，但并没有创造更多资源，使公司更有可能通过 "洗绿 "实现合规。此外，EPT 对 ESG 洗绿的影响对于大公司和位于经济发展水平高、监管执行力度强的地区的公司更为明显。我们的研究为改进 EPT 政策以实现绿色可持续发展提供了可靠的证据和有价值的启示。

引用次数: 0

Digital transformation and corporate green total factor productivity: Based on double/debiased machine learning robustness estimation 数字化转型与企业绿色全要素生产率：基于双重/偏差机器学习的稳健性估计

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.023

With the rapid development of the digital economy, China's digital technology and industry continue to integrate deeply into all areas of society. Digital transformation(DT) has become an important engine and key pedestal for economic and social transformations and upgrades. This paper takes 3525 listed companies from 2013 to 2021 as a sample to measure the green total factor productivity(GTFP) of listed enterprises based on the super-efficiency slacks-based measure with the Global Malmquist-Luenberger Index (SBM-GML) and the super-efficiency epsilon-based measure with the Global Malmquist-Luenberger Index (EBM-GML). It draws on the two existing DT indicators to explore the impact and mechanism of enterprise DT on GTFP. The results show that DT can significantly enhance GTFP, and this conclusion still holds after double/debiased machine learning and other robustness tests; the heterogeneity analysis shows that DT of high-tech enterprises, manufacturing industries and low-financialisation enterprises has a more obvious effect on the enhancement of GTFP; and the four-stage mediated impact mechanism suggests that the effect of DT on GTFP can be achieved by improving internal control ability and technological innovation ability. This paper will provide relevant policy insights on how to better drive enterprise DT and green low-carbon development under the “dual-carbon” goal.

随着数字经济的快速发展，中国的数字技术和产业不断深入社会各个领域。数字化转型（DT）已成为经济社会转型升级的重要引擎和关键基石。本文以2013-2021年的3525家上市公司为样本，基于全球马尔奎斯特-伦伯格指数（SBM-GML）的超效率松弛指标和全球马尔奎斯特-伦伯格指数（EBM-GML）的超效率ε指标，测度上市企业的绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）。研究借鉴了这两个现有的 DT 指标，探讨了企业 DT 对 GTFP 的影响和作用机制。结果表明，DT能显著提升GTFP，且该结论在经过双重/偏差机器学习等稳健性检验后仍然成立；异质性分析表明，高新技术企业、制造业和低财务化企业的DT对GTFP的提升效果更为明显；四阶段中介影响机制表明，DT对GTFP的影响可以通过提高内部控制能力和技术创新能力来实现。本文将为 "双碳 "目标下如何更好地推动企业 DT 和绿色低碳发展提供相关政策启示。

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引用次数: 0

Economic and supply chain impacts from energy price shocks in Southeast Asia 东南亚能源价格冲击对经济和供应链的影响

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.025

Following the war in Ukraine, it became evident that substantial energy price increases had complex impacts on the economic systems and supply chains throughout the Southeast Asian region. In this article, we employ a global applied general equilibrium model (GTAP-E-PowerS) to examine how ongoing energy price increases might affect sectors, economies and emissions levels of the region. We additionally investigate how technological development including energy efficiency gains, utilisation of capital and how output augmenting technologies may help mitigate costs. Our findings indicate demand for renewable energy by private and industrial sectors increase substantially as a substitute for traditional fossil fuels, but are not adequate to compensate for losses. Agriculture and food sectors are not significantly affected, suggesting less hazards to food security as they are not energy-intensive. Manufacturing, transport and electricity generation sectors, which are energy-intensive, are materially adversely affected. More interestingly, however, is the primary energy supply sectors, viz. oil and gas extraction, and petroleum product manufacturing sectors, whose output declines by 20–70 % across countries. Real GDP also declines substantially, by 1.0–3.8 % in the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Conversely, total emissions decline by 6–22 % across countries. Of the options considered, investment in improving utilisation of capital resources is found to be the most effective against energy price shocks.

乌克兰战争之后，能源价格的大幅上涨显然对整个东南亚地区的经济体系和供应链产生了复杂的影响。在本文中，我们采用全球应用一般均衡模型（GTAP-E-PowerS）来研究能源价格的持续上涨会如何影响该地区的行业、经济和排放水平。此外，我们还研究了技术发展，包括能源效率的提高、资本的利用以及产出增加技术如何帮助降低成本。我们的研究结果表明，作为传统化石燃料的替代品，私人和工业部门对可再生能源的需求大幅增加，但不足以弥补损失。农业和食品行业受到的影响不大，这表明由于它们不是能源密集型行业，因此对粮食安全的危害较小。而能源密集型的制造业、运输业和发电业则受到了重大不利影响。但更有趣的是，初级能源供应部门，即石油和天然气开采以及石油产品制造部门，其产出在各国都下降了 20-70%。菲律宾、新加坡、越南、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国的实际 GDP 也大幅下降了 1.0-3.8%。相反，各国的总排放量下降了 6-22%。在所考虑的各种方案中，投资提高资本资源的利用率被认为是应对能源价格冲击最有效的方法。

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引用次数: 0

Can China's low-carbon city pilot policy facilitate carbon neutrality? Evidence from a machine learning approach 中国低碳城市试点政策能否促进碳中和？来自机器学习方法的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.028

This study examines China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal using the Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML) model to analyze the causal effects of the low-carbon city pilot (LCCP) policy on urban carbon neutrality in 277 Chinese cities from 2008 to 2017. A series of empirical studies and robustness tests show that the LCCP policy has promoted carbon neutrality in Chinese cities. Through causal mediation analysis, this study identifies potential mechanisms, including increasing green credit, stimulating green innovation, optimizing industrial structures, and strengthening environmental governance. The LCCP policy has a varied impact on cities, depending on their resource endowments, geographical locations, and sizes. Furthermore, this study develops a green development index to assess the causal impact of the LCCP policy on green development, suggesting that it does not hinder the city's economic growth but rather enhances its quality and sustainability. This study provides empirical evidence for regional environmental governance and improvement strategies and offers valuable insights into China's transition from prioritizing rapid economic growth to achieving high-quality development.

本研究利用双重/偏差机器学习（DML）模型研究了中国 2060 年的碳中和目标，分析了 2008 年至 2017 年期间中国 277 个城市的低碳城市试点（LCCP）政策对城市碳中和的因果效应。一系列实证研究和稳健性检验表明，低碳城市试点政策促进了中国城市的碳中和。通过因果中介分析，本研究发现了潜在的机制，包括增加绿色信贷、激励绿色创新、优化产业结构和加强环境治理。根据城市的资源禀赋、地理位置和规模，LCCP 政策对城市的影响各不相同。此外，本研究还开发了一个绿色发展指数来评估 LCCP 政策对绿色发展的因果影响，表明该政策不仅不会阻碍城市的经济增长，反而会提高其质量和可持续性。本研究为区域环境治理和改善战略提供了实证证据，并为中国从经济高速增长优先向实现高质量发展转变提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Supply chain digitalization and firms' green innovation: Evidence from a pilot program 供应链数字化与企业的绿色创新：试点项目的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.024

Green innovation is essential for realizing environmental sustainability and achieving long-term ecological balance. This paper investigates the influence of supply chain digitalization on firms' green innovation in the manufacturing industry. China's 2018 Supply Chain Innovation and Application Pilot program as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) estimation approach to reach the following findings: (1) supply chain digitalization significantly enhances the quantity and quality of enterprise green innovation, with a more substantial impact on quality. (2) supply chain financing capacity and firm environmental awareness play a partial mediating role in the relationship supply chain digitalization and the quality and quantity of corporate green innovation. (3) the heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of supply chain digitalization on green innovation is notably heightened in firms with managers who have overseas experience, weak internal controls, and poor regional supply chain environments. This study enriches the theoretical understanding of enterprise green innovation from the perspective of supply chain digitalization, providing a theoretical basis and practical insights for green innovation practices in enterprises.

绿色创新是实现环境可持续发展和长期生态平衡的关键。本文研究供应链数字化对制造业企业绿色创新的影响。以2018年中国供应链创新与应用试点项目为准自然实验，采用差分估计（DID）方法得出以下结论：（1）供应链数字化显著提升了企业绿色创新的数量和质量，其中对质量的影响更为显著。(2）供应链融资能力和企业环境意识在供应链数字化与企业绿色创新质量和数量的关系中起部分中介作用。(3）异质性分析表明，供应链数字化对绿色创新的影响在管理者具有海外经验、内部控制薄弱、区域供应链环境较差的企业中明显增强。本研究从供应链数字化的角度丰富了对企业绿色创新的理论认识，为企业的绿色创新实践提供了理论依据和实践启示。

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引用次数: 0

Competition policy and enterprise competitiveness: Catalyst or barrier? 竞争政策与企业竞争力：催化剂还是障碍？

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.022

As a seminal institutional innovation within the framework of Chinese-style modern competition theory, the question of whether the Fair Competition Review System (FCRS) can harness policy dividends and bolster enterprise competitiveness stands as a pivotal concern for accelerating the emergence of new productive forces and fostering a harmonious integration of an "effective government + efficient market." Leveraging data from China's listed manufacturing enterprises spanning the period from 2010 to 2020, this paper undertakes an empirical examination of the impact of competition policy frameworks on the competitiveness of manufacturing enterprises. The FCRS is treated as a quasi-natural experiment, and a difference-in-differences (DID) methodology is employed for analysis.

The findings of this paper are as follows: (1) The implementation of the FCRS has been found to effectively augment the competitiveness of manufacturing enterprises by approximately 1.97 %, and this fundamental conclusion retains its validity after a battery of robustness tests; (2) The FCRS primarily influences enterprise competitiveness by lowering financing costs, enhancing technological innovation, and mitigating over-investment; (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that non-high-tech enterprises and those with lower financing constraints can attain more pronounced effects in promoting enterprise competitiveness through competition policies. Additionally, enterprise size and operational risks also exert an influence on the efficacy of competition policies in enhancing competitiveness; (4) Expanded analysis indicates that competition policies optimize the capital structure of enterprises through "debt reduction" and "capacity enhancement," thereby exploring the viability of analyzing the macro factors that impact enterprise "deleveraging" from the lens of competition policies. The research conclusions presented in this paper carry substantial guiding significance for the government in clarifying the preeminent role of market allocation of resources, promoting the establishment of a unified national market, and orchestrating a coherent fair competition system.

作为中国式现代竞争理论框架下的一项开创性制度创新，公平竞争审查制度（FCRS）能否发挥政策红利、提升企业竞争力，是加速新生产力崛起、促进 "有效政府+有效市场 "和谐统一的关键问题。本文利用2010-2020年中国制造业上市企业的数据，对竞争政策框架对制造业企业竞争力的影响进行了实证研究。本文将FCRS视为准自然实验，并采用差分法（DID）进行分析：(1)研究发现，FCRS 的实施能有效提高制造业企业竞争力约 1.97%，这一基本结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后仍然有效；(2)FCRS 主要通过降低融资成本、加强技术创新和缓解过度投资来影响企业竞争力；(3)异质性分析表明，非高科技企业和融资约束较低的企业通过竞争政策提高企业竞争力的效果更为明显。此外，企业规模和经营风险也会对竞争政策提升竞争力的效果产生影响；（4）拓展分析表明，竞争政策通过 "减债 "和 "增能 "优化了企业的资本结构，从而探索了从竞争政策视角分析影响企业 "去杠杆化 "的宏观因素的可行性。本文的研究结论对政府明确市场配置资源的主导作用、促进全国统一市场的建立、协调公平竞争体系具有重要的指导意义。

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引用次数: 0

Government spending efficiency, fiscal decentralization and regional innovation capability: Evidence from China 政府支出效率、财政分权与区域创新能力：来自中国的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.08.033

Improving regional innovation is the key to achieving high-quality development, and regional innovation requires government support. However, a notable research gap exists in studies examining the relationship between government spending efficiency and regional innovation. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021, this study verifies the positive impact of government spending efficiency on regional innovation capacity and its mechanism. Notably, the Consumer Price Index has been selected as an instrumental variable through a rigorous theoretical analysis to address the potential endogeneity and ensure the robustness of the findings. The findings also suggest that government spending efficiency can do better in promoting regional innovation capability in higher-investment preference areas, less financial development level regions. Further analysis reveals that human capital and advanced industrial structure play a great channel effect, while fiscal decentralization positively moderates the relationship between government spending efficiency and regional innovation capability. This study deepens our understanding of the impact of fiscal policy on local innovation development from different perspectives. Furthermore, it provides a reference to developing countries on the importance of local government in optimizing regional innovation.

提高区域创新能力是实现高质量发展的关键，而区域创新需要政府的支持。然而，关于政府支出效率与区域创新关系的研究存在明显的空白。本研究基于 2000 年至 2021 年中国 30 个省份的面板数据，验证了政府支出效率对区域创新能力的积极影响及其作用机制。值得注意的是，本研究通过严谨的理论分析，选取了居民消费价格指数作为工具变量，以解决潜在的内生性问题，确保研究结论的稳健性。研究结果还表明，在投资偏好较高、金融发展水平较低的地区，政府支出效率可以更好地促进区域创新能力。进一步的分析表明，人力资本和先进的产业结构发挥了巨大的渠道效应，而财政分权则正向调节了政府支出效率与区域创新能力之间的关系。这项研究从不同角度加深了我们对财政政策对地方创新发展影响的理解。此外，它还为发展中国家认识地方政府在优化区域创新中的重要性提供了参考。

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引用次数: 0

Farmers' decision-making regarding land under economic incentives: Evidence from rural China 经济激励下的农民土地决策：来自中国农村的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.019

To achieve complete urbanization in developing countries, it is essential for many farmers to leave rural areas and withdraw from farmland as they enter urban employment. The Chinese government offers economic incentives to encourage households to relinquish their land rights. Based on a survey data in rural China, this paper examines the impact of land transfers and urban housing on the withdrawal of contractual rights of farm households. Econometric analyses reveal that rural households with urban housing are 6.4 % less likely to choose to withdraw from land, whereas those involved in land transfers are 3.8 % more likely to do so. The study's findings suggest that a uniform policy, like nationwide land withdrawal reforms accompanied by economic compensation, might lead to outcomes where the poor lose land and the rich retain theirs.

发展中国家要实现完全的城市化，许多农民必须离开农村，在进入城市就业的同时退出农田。中国政府提供经济激励措施，鼓励农户放弃土地权利。本文基于中国农村调查数据，研究了土地流转和城市住房对农户承包权退出的影响。计量经济学分析表明，拥有城市住房的农户选择退出土地的可能性降低了 6.4%，而参与土地流转的农户选择退出土地的可能性提高了 3.8%。研究结果表明，统一的政策，如在全国范围内进行土地退出改革并辅以经济补偿，可能会导致穷人失去土地而富人保有土地的结果。

引用次数: 0