Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献

英文中文

Dynamic spillovers between Shanghai crude oil futures and China's green markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile connectedness approach

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.006

Min Liu , Hongfei Liu , Weiying Ping

This paper provides a preliminary investigation of the dynamic relationship between crude oil and different green assets by examining the spillover effects between the Shanghai crude oil futures (INE), carbon emissions trading (CET), ESG stocks (ESG), clean energy stocks (CSI) and green bonds (GB) markets. The innovation of this paper is its adoption of the quantile-on-quantile connectedness approach to analyze the spillover effects that occur in these markets across various quantiles and provide more accurate and comprehensive empirical results. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, CSI and ESG are positively correlated with INE during the sample period, while CET and GB are negatively correlated with INE. Second, CET has strong potential to hedge against oil shocks during normal market states, while GB shows better hedging performance during extreme market states. Third, regardless of the quantile level, ESG and CSI play the role of primary information transmitters in the network, while GB and CET act more as net spillover recipients. These findings help oil investors to realign their portfolios for risk avoidance and provide policymakers with a reference for formulating policy measures.

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引用次数: 0

Green public procurement and firms' pollution emissions: Does demand-side environmental policy matter? 绿色公共采购与企业的污染排放：需求方环境政策重要吗？

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.011

Renjie Zhang , Guiyi Zhu

Environmental governance requires both production-side and demand-side approaches. Previous literature has extensively studied environmental regulatory policies on the production side, while the role of demand side factors has often been neglected. This study constructs a staggered difference-in-difference model to investigate the impact of Green Public Procurement (GPP) on firms' pollution emissions taking the green procurement lists enacted by the Chinese government as a quasi-natural experiment. The results demonstrate that being selected into the green procurement lists significantly reduces firms' pollution emissions, and the findings still hold after endogeneity tests and a series of robustness tests. We identified the mechanisms responsible for this effect. The reduction in firms' pollution emissions mainly results from energy transition, enhanced technological innovation, and improved end-of-pipe treatment capacity. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the pollution reduction effect of GPP differs depending on the procurement implementation modalities and firm characteristics. Finally, we use China's domestic input-output table to calculate the indicators of upstream and downstream industry linkages and examine the production network spillover effects of GPP. The results show that GPP effectively reduces the pollution emissions of upstream and downstream firms through production network linkages. This study provides empirical evidence from China on the effectiveness of GPP as a demand-side policy in pollution reduction, and offers valuable policy insights for further improving the policy system of environmental governance.

环境治理需要从生产端和需求端两方面入手。以往的文献广泛研究了生产侧的环境监管政策，而需求侧因素的作用往往被忽视。本研究以中国政府颁布的绿色采购清单为准自然实验，构建了交错差分模型，研究绿色政府采购（GPP）对企业污染排放的影响。结果表明，入选绿色采购清单能显著减少企业的污染排放，而且在经过内生性检验和一系列稳健性检验后，研究结果仍然成立。我们确定了产生这种效应的机制。企业污染排放的减少主要源于能源转型、技术创新的加强以及末端治理能力的提高。异质性分析表明，GPP 的污染减排效果因采购实施方式和企业特征的不同而不同。最后，我们利用中国国内投入产出表计算上下游产业关联指标，考察 GPP 的生产网络溢出效应。结果表明，GPP 通过生产网络联系有效减少了上下游企业的污染排放。本研究提供了中国 GPP 作为需求侧政策在污染减排方面有效性的经验证据，为进一步完善环境治理政策体系提供了有价值的政策启示。

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引用次数: 0

Digital economy, CO2 emissions and China's environmental sustainable development— an analysis based on TVP-VAR model 数字经济、二氧化碳排放与中国环境可持续发展--基于 TVP-VAR 模型的分析

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.009

Xinyi Zhang , Yufan Chen , Tianqi Wang

The growth of digital economy and sustainable development of environment are important issues related to high-quality economic development in the new era. This paper selects the yearly data of China from 2007 to 2021, constructs the China's Environmental Performance Index(EPI), and establishes the TVP-VAR model to investigate the dynamic time-varying relationship among digital economy growth, CO₂ emissions, and environment sustainability over short, medium and long-term. The results indicate that the relationships among them are time-varying at all terms. Specifically, in first, the growth of the digital economy exerts a negative impulse on CO₂ emissions, with its immediate consequences being more pronounced than its prolonged impacts. Secondly, there exist positive impulses between the the digital economy and environment sustainability. CO₂ emissions has a negative impact on sustainable development of environment. Thirdly, they have same influencing tendencies at certain time points, but different impact degrees. The impact of the digital economy on environmental sustainable development has significantly increased since the COVID-19 outbreak. Therefore, the development of digital economy can effectively reduce CO₂ emissions and promote the sustainable development of the environment.

数字经济增长与环境可持续发展是新时代经济高质量发展的重要课题。本文选取中国 2007-2021 年的年度数据，构建中国环境绩效指数（EPI），并建立 TVP-VAR 模型，研究数字经济增长、二氧化碳排放与环境可持续发展之间的短、中、长期动态时变关系。结果表明，它们之间的关系在各期都是时变的。具体来说，首先，数字经济增长对二氧化碳排放产生负向影响，其直接后果比长期影响更为明显。其次，数字经济与环境可持续性之间存在正向促进作用。二氧化碳排放对环境的可持续发展有负面影响。第三，二者在特定时间点的影响趋势相同，但影响程度不同。COVID-19 爆发后，数字经济对环境可持续发展的影响明显增强。因此，发展数字经济可以有效减少二氧化碳排放，促进环境可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Political conformity and digital transformation: Evidence from China 政治服从与数字化转型：来自中国的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.014

Haiyan Yang , Linlin Chen , Yuyu Zhang

This study investigates the influence of political conformity on digital transformation in Chinese family businesses from 2011 to 2020. We find that political conformity significantly boosts digital transformation by strengthening strategic leadership, technology focus, and organizational capabilities. It also fosters risk-taking, reduces agency costs, and eases financial constraints. The impact is more pronounced in situations in contexts with high economic policy uncertainty, when executives have limited IT knowledge, family members hold positions in the party committee, and the firm is geographically proximate to the political center, Beijing. Additionally, aligning political conformity with technology strategies not only advances digital transformation but also enhances the businesses' Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) profile and firm value.

本研究探讨了政治顺应性对 2011-2020 年中国家族企业数字化转型的影响。我们发现，政治顺应通过加强战略领导力、技术聚焦和组织能力，极大地促进了数字化转型。同时，它还能促进风险承担，降低代理成本，缓解财务约束。在经济政策不确定性较高、高管人员信息技术知识有限、家庭成员在党委中任职、企业地理位置靠近政治中心北京的情况下，这种影响更为明显。此外，使政治与技术战略保持一致不仅能推进数字化转型，还能提升企业的环境、社会和治理（ESG）形象和企业价值。

引用次数: 0

The impact of environmental regulation on enterprise green innovation 环境监管对企业绿色创新的影响

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.008

Qin Kun , Yao Chang , Niu Runkai

This paper evaluates the real effects of the environmental regulation at the firm level. Using the implementation of Chinese Air Pollution Prevention and Control in 2013 as a quasi-natural experiment,difference-in-differences estimation shows that: (1) environmental regulation significantly improve the application of green innovation by firms, and this relationship is robust to different specifications and alternative measures; (2) three possible channels are the improved levels of the environmental protection subsidy, total factor productivity (TFP) and environmental protection investment of enterprises; (3) our findings are particularly pronounced in subsamples with the application of utility green innovation and state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Overall, this paper reveals the micro-mechanisms behind the real effects of environmental regulation on firm green innovation, thus providing timely implications for regulators concerned with environmental protection.

本文评估了环境监管在企业层面的实际效果。以中国 2013 年实施的《大气污染防治法》为准自然实验，差分估计结果表明(1）环境规制显著改善了企业的绿色创新应用，并且这种关系对不同的规格和替代措施都是稳健的；（2）三个可能的渠道是企业环保补贴、全要素生产率（TFP）和环保投资水平的提高；（3）我们的研究结果在应用实用性绿色创新的子样本和国有企业中尤为明显。总之，本文揭示了环境规制对企业绿色创新实际影响背后的微观机制，从而为关注环境保护的监管者提供了及时的启示。

引用次数: 0

Employee stock ownership plans and controlling shareholders’ over-appointing of directors 员工持股计划和控股股东超额任命董事

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.001

Lei Zhou, Feng Wei

Using a large sample of Chinese non-financial listed firms from 2014 to 2021, we find that employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) significantly reduce controlling shareholders’ over-appointing of directors, and this finding is robust after addressing endogeneity concerns. We then provide evidence to show that reducing the risk of control transfer and controlling shareholders’ private benefits of control are important channels in which ESOPs affect controlling shareholders’ over-appointing of directors. Furthermore, we find that effect of ESOPs on controlling shareholders’ over-appointing of directors is less pronounced when firms with stronger corporate governance. We also demonstrate that the type of ownership, the source of funding, and the lock-up period of ESOPs can affect the effectiveness of ESOPs.

通过对 2014 年至 2021 年中国非金融类上市公司的大样本研究，我们发现员工持股计划（ESOP）能显著减少控股股东对董事的过度任命，而且在解决了内生性问题后，这一结论是稳健的。然后，我们提供证据表明，降低控制权转移风险和控股股东的控制权私人利益是 ESOP 影响控股股东超额任命董事的重要渠道。此外，我们还发现，ESOP 对控股股东超额任命董事的影响在公司治理较强的企业中并不明显。我们还证明，ESOP 的所有权类型、资金来源和锁定期会影响 ESOP 的有效性。

引用次数: 0

How does macroprudential policy affect the relationship between financial openness and bank risk-taking 宏观审慎政策如何影响金融开放与银行风险承担之间的关系

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.004

Hui-Jun Li , Deng-Kui Si , Meng-Long Chen

This paper investigates how macroprudential policy affects the relationship between financial openness and bank risk-taking by utilizing Chinese commercial banking data from 2005 to 2021. We find that financial openness generally promotes bank risk-taking. Robustness checks consistently support this finding, including variable substitutions, sample period adjustments, controlling for other shocks, and endogeneity concerns. The impact of financial openness on risk-taking demonstrates potential heterogeneity, contingent upon factors such as bank financing constraints, risk management, and financial regulation. We delineate credit, interest rate, and asset price channels through which financial openness affects bank risk-taking, notably by amplifying bank credit volumes, diminishing credit asset ratios, compressing net interest margins and spreads, and elevating asset prices. Macroprudential policies are identified as effective countermeasures against the heightened bank risk-taking associated with financial openness, with the effectiveness of these policies varying by the specific regulatory instruments.

本文利用 2005 年至 2021 年的中国商业银行数据，研究了宏观审慎政策如何影响金融开放与银行风险承担之间的关系。我们发现，金融开放总体上促进了银行的风险承担。稳健性检验一致支持这一结论，包括变量替代、样本期调整、控制其他冲击以及内生性问题。金融开放对风险承担的影响表现出潜在的异质性，取决于银行融资约束、风险管理和金融监管等因素。我们划分了信贷、利率和资产价格渠道，金融开放通过这些渠道影响银行的风险承担，特别是通过放大银行信贷量、降低信贷资产比率、压缩净息差和利差以及提高资产价格。宏观审慎政策被认为是应对与金融开放相关的银行风险承担增加的有效措施，这些政策的有效性因具体监管工具而异。

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引用次数: 0

The effects of macroprudential policies on house prices: Evidence from non-ordinary house purchasing policy using China real transaction data 宏观审慎政策对房价的影响：利用中国实际交易数据从非普通住宅购买政策中获取证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.057

Sun LinLin , Zhang Yawen , Xue Xiaojun

This paper contributes to the international policy debate on the effect of macroprudential policy on housing prices. Our identification relies on the fact that ordinary housing and non-ordinary housing in Beijing face different loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions and transaction tax rates. This paper uses regression discontinuity (RD) design to test whether the differentiated regulation of ordinary housing and non-ordinary housing caused a discontinuous change in housing prices with house-level transaction data. We find that housing prices have a significant discontinuous decline at the cutoff point caused by macroprudential policy, which we take 140 m² s since it is the identification standard of non-ordinary housing. Further, we carry out RD-DID analysis to investigate the influence of loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions on housing prices. We find that around 2 % decline in house prices is caused by credit policy.

本文有助于国际上关于宏观审慎政策对房价影响的政策辩论。我们的识别依赖于北京的普通住房和非普通住房面临不同的贷款成数（LTV）限制和交易税率这一事实。本文采用回归非连续性（RD）设计，利用房屋交易数据检验了普通住房和非普通住房的差异化调控是否导致了房价的非连续性变化。我们发现，房价在宏观审慎政策导致的分界点处出现了显著的不连续下降，我们取 140 m2 s 作为非普通住房的识别标准。此外，我们还进行了 RD-DID 分析，以研究贷款价值限制（LTV）对房价的影响。我们发现，约 2% 的房价下跌是由信贷政策造成的。

引用次数: 0

Digital industry agglomeration and urban innovation: Evidence from China 数字产业集聚与城市创新：来自中国的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.047

Danning Lu , Eddie Chi Man Hui , Jianfu Shen , Jianxun Shi

This study explores the relationship between digital economy and urban innovation from the perspective of economic agglomeration. Based on a panel data set of 285 Chinese cities from 2009 to 2019 and the classification of the digital industry by the National Bureau of Statistics, this study shows that an increased level of digital industry agglomeration significantly contributes to urban innovation, with more pronounced effects observed in larger cities and those in eastern and western regions. Further analysis of industry heterogeneity reveals that digital industry agglomeration not only boosts innovation within the digital industry but also enhances it in non-digital industries. Additionally, digital industry agglomeration appears more conducive to promoting innovation in green technology industries than in non-green technology industries. The mechanism analysis reveals the mediating effect of data capital accumulation, market size expansion, and digital technology spillover on urban innovation. The Sobel test reveals that data capital accumulation has the largest mediating effect on total patents, while digital technology spillover has the strongest mediating effect on invention patents. This study enriches the existing understanding of the agglomeration effect of the digital industry on urban innovation and sheds light on the mechanisms driving urban innovation in emerging economies.

本研究从经济集聚的角度探讨数字经济与城市创新之间的关系。基于 2009 年至 2019 年中国 285 个城市的面板数据集和国家统计局的数字产业分类，本研究表明，数字产业集聚水平的提高显著促进了城市创新，在较大城市和东西部地区的城市中观察到更明显的效应。对产业异质性的进一步分析表明，数字产业集聚不仅能促进数字产业内部的创新，还能增强非数字产业的创新。此外，与非绿色技术产业相比，数字产业集聚似乎更有利于促进绿色技术产业的创新。机制分析揭示了数据资本积累、市场规模扩张和数字技术溢出对城市创新的中介效应。Sobel 检验显示，数据资本积累对专利总量的中介效应最大，而数字技术溢出对发明专利的中介效应最强。这项研究丰富了现有关于数字产业对城市创新的集聚效应的认识，并揭示了新兴经济体城市创新的驱动机制。

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引用次数: 0

The economic implications of population aging on current account balance 人口老龄化对经常账户收支的经济影响

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.053

Tomas Kabrt

This paper focuses on the demographic determinants of current account balance (CAB) across income groups, continents, and time periods between 1993 and 2021. The benchmark model employs a panel data analysis, particularly a two-way effects estimator (Baltagi, 2021), with CAB as the main dependent variable, while savings rate (SAV) is used as an alternative dependent variable. It was found that the old dependency ratio, fertility rate, life expectancy, population growth, and mortality rate have a statistically significant effect on CAB and SAV, but the effects are heterogeneous across income groups and continents. In Africa, an increase in the old dependency ratio has a negative effect on CAB in accordance with the theories of Modigliani and Sterling (1983), Graham, (1987), and Masson and Tryon (1990). Fertility rate has a negative effect on CAB in Africa while having an ambiguous effect in Asia and Europe. In line with the findings of Mason and Lee (2006), there is a positive relationship between fertility rates and CAB and SAV in lower-middle-income countries and negative relationship in high-income countries. Conversely, population growth affects negatively CAB and SAV in lower middle-income countries and positively in high-income countries.

本文重点研究 1993 年至 2021 年间各收入群体、各大洲和各时期经常账户余额（CAB）的人口决定因素。基准模型采用面板数据分析，特别是双向效应估计法（Baltagi，2021 年），以经常账户余额为主要因变量，储蓄率（SAV）为替代因变量。研究发现，老龄受扶养人比率、生育率、预期寿命、人口增长和死亡率对 CAB 和 SAV 有显著的统计影响，但这些影响在不同收入群体和大洲之间存在差异。在非洲，根据 Modigliani 和 Sterling（1983 年）、Graham（1987 年）以及 Masson 和 Tryon（1990 年）的理论，老年抚养比的增加对 CAB 有负面影响。在非洲，生育率对 CAB 有负面影响，而在亚洲和欧洲则影响模糊。与 Mason 和 Lee（2006 年）的研究结果一致，在中低收入国家，生育率与 CAB 和 SAV 之间呈正相关，而在高收入国家则呈负相关。相反，人口增长对中低收入国家的 CAB 和 SAV 有负面影响，而对高收入国家则有正面影响。

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