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The role of weather and climate information services to support in wildfire management in Northwestern Europe 天气和气候信息服务在支持西北欧野火管理中的作用
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100672
H.A. Lambrechts , C.R. Stoof , M. del Pozo , F. Ludwig , S. Paparrizos
As climate change intensifies, temperatures rise and extreme weather events become more frequent, leading to increased droughts and elevated wildfire risks. This trend is especially pronounced in with an emerging wildfire risk under climate change, including Northwestern Europe. This study evaluates the use and needs of climate information services (CIS) for supporting Integrated Fire Management in these regions. Employing a qualitative approach, an online survey was distributed to professional stakeholders in Northwestern Europe, focusing on their awareness and perception of preparedness for wildfires, their use of CIS, and their future needs for fire management.
Results indicate that while stakeholders are experiencing wildfires and although there is a high perception of preparedness for current wildfire conditions, their preparedness for future conditions is considerably lower. Most rely on short-term weather forecasts, yet there is a significant gap in the use and perceived need for long-term climate projections. Additionally, engagement with and awareness of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) are limited. The findings underscore the critical need for more detailed and locally relevant CIS that are salient, credible, and legitimate to foster proactive and adaptive management strategies. Enhancing stakeholder engagement and co-producing tailored CIS can contribute to improving prevention, preparedness, and resilience against the escalating threat of wildfires in Northwestern Europe.
随着气候变化加剧,气温上升,极端天气事件变得更加频繁,导致干旱和野火风险增加。这一趋势在气候变化下出现的野火风险中尤为明显,包括欧洲西北部。本研究评估了气候信息服务(CIS)在这些地区支持综合消防管理的使用和需求。采用定性方法,向西北欧的专业利益相关者分发了一份在线调查,重点关注他们对野火准备的认识和看法、他们对CIS的使用以及他们未来对火灾管理的需求。结果表明,虽然利益相关者正在经历野火,尽管他们对当前野火状况的准备程度很高,但他们对未来状况的准备程度要低得多。大多数依赖于短期天气预报,但在长期气候预测的使用和感知需求方面存在重大差距。此外,对欧洲森林火灾信息系统(EFFIS)的参与和认识有限。研究结果强调,迫切需要更详细的、与当地相关的、突出的、可信的、合法的CIS,以促进积极的、适应性的管理战略。加强利益相关者的参与和共同制定量身定制的CIS可以有助于改善欧洲西北部野火威胁升级的预防、准备和复原力。
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引用次数: 0
Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures 根据文献资料推测的未来排放和温度的可能性
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100605
Frank Venmans , Ben Carr

How high should we build a dyke today, knowing that it will serve for more than 50 years? This depends on the probability distribution of future temperatures. We review the literature on estimates of future emissions for current/stated policy scenarios and current pledge scenarios. Reviewing expert elicitations, abatement costs of scenarios, learning rates of technologies, fossil fuel supply side dynamics and geoengineering, we argue that scenarios with emissions largely beyond current/stated policy scenarios and largely below current pledge scenarios are relatively unlikely. Based on this, we develop a literature-informed evaluation of the likelihoods of future temperature for use in Value at Risk stress tests in 2030, 2050 and 2100.

我们今天应该把堤坝建得多高,知道它的使用寿命将超过 50 年?这取决于未来温度的概率分布。我们回顾了有关当前/既定政策方案和当前承诺方案的未来排放量估计的文献。通过对专家征询、情景减排成本、技术学习率、化石燃料供应方动态和地球工程进行回顾,我们认为,排放量大大超出当前/既定政策情景和大大低于当前承诺情景的情景相对不太可能出现。在此基础上,我们根据文献资料对未来温度的可能性进行了评估,以用于 2030、2050 和 2100 年的风险价值压力测试。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring community heatwave resilience: A comprehensive framework and tool 衡量社区抗热浪能力:综合框架和工具
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100662
Rubenstein Naomi , Keating Adriana , MacClune Karen , Norton Rachel
This article presents the first comprehensive, multi-sector heatwave resilience measurement framework and associated tool, available for use at the community or city neighbourhood scale. The question of how to live in a rapidly urbanising, climate change impacted world with more frequent and intense heatwaves is more urgent than ever. Most cities and communities around the world are critically underprepared for the growing reality of heatwaves. This paper presents the system of systems that come together to generate heatwave risk and action in which can, in-turn, support community-level heatwave resilience: features of urban heatwave risk, heatwave vulnerabilities, and heatwave governance. We then present the heatwave version of the Climate Resilience Measurement for Communities: a systems-based approach for conceptualising and measuring disaster resilience. The framework was co-designed by researchers and practitioners and is based on the most widely applied community flood resilience measurement endeavor in the world. This is, to our knowledge, the only standardized and holistic, yet globally applicable, heatwave resilience measurement framework available.
本文介绍了首个全面的多部门热浪复原力测量框架和相关工具,可在社区或城市街区范围内使用。在一个快速城市化、受气候变化影响、热浪更加频繁和剧烈的世界里,如何生活的问题比以往任何时候都更加紧迫。世界上大多数城市和社区对日益严重的热浪现实准备严重不足。本文介绍了共同产生热浪风险和行动的系统体系,这些体系反过来可以支持社区层面的热浪抗御能力:城市热浪风险特征、热浪脆弱性和热浪治理。然后,我们介绍了热浪版本的 "社区气候复原力测量":一种基于系统的方法,用于概念化和测量灾害复原力。该框架由研究人员和从业人员共同设计,以世界上应用最广泛的社区抗洪能力测量工作为基础。据我们所知,这是目前唯一一个标准化的、全面的、全球适用的热浪抗灾能力衡量框架。
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引用次数: 0
A systematic review of urban heat island and heat waves research (1991–2022) 城市热岛和热浪研究系统回顾(1991-2022 年)
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100603
Sorin Cheval , Vlad-Alexandru Amihăesei , Zenaida Chitu , Alexandru Dumitrescu , Vladut Falcescu , Adrian Irașoc , Dana Magdalena Micu , Eugen Mihulet , Irina Ontel , Monica-Gabriela Paraschiv , Nicu Constantin Tudose

Urban Heat Island (UHI) and Heat Waves (HWs) are very important research topics as they have a strong impact on society and their synergies are not enough understood. Urbanisation and global warming are dynamic processes that amplify the UHI intensity and the HWs, as well as their synergies. In this context, it is not a surprise to see that the number of publications tackling the linkages between UHI and HWs has constantly increased in the last decades. The development of new instruments and technologies allowed for consistent improvements in the temporal and spatial resolution of the data that boosted both the monitoring and analysis of the UHI-HW. The use of satellite remote sensing was very limited at the beginning of the analysed period and has become common practice in the last decade. Last, but not least, the interdisciplinary approaches, including physical, social, and economic aspects are more frequent and support the integrated development of the urban areas. Such changes are captured in this review including more than 400 titles, covering the period 1991–2022, aiming to foster further research on emergent climate change risks at urban scales and contextualise the future urban planning. This review provides a comprehensive, accessible and structured overview of the UHI-HW topic as a support for a better understanding of the gaps to be addressed by future research.

城市热岛(UHI)和热浪(HWs)是非常重要的研究课题,因为它们对社会有很大的影响,而人们对它们的协同作用却了解不够。城市化和全球变暖是一个动态过程,会加剧城市热岛和热浪的强度及其协同作用。在这种情况下,我们不难发现,在过去的几十年里,有关超高强度空气影响和高湿度空气影响之间联系的出版物数量不断增加。新仪器和新技术的发展使得数据的时间和空间分辨率不断提高,从而促进了对特高 温冲击--高温天气的监测和分析。卫星遥感技术的使用在分析期开始时非常有限,在过去十年中已成为普遍做法。最后,但并非最不重要的一点是,跨学科方法,包括物理、社会和经济方面的跨学科方法越来越多,支持了城市地区的综合发展。本综述涵盖了 1991-2022 年间的 400 多篇论文,旨在促进对城市范围内新出现的气候变化风险的进一步研究,并为未来的城市规划提供背景资料。本综述全面、易懂、有条理地概述了 UHI-HW 主题,有助于更好地了解未来研究需要解决的差距。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying overheating risk in English schools: A spatially coherent climate risk assessment 量化英国学校的过热风险:空间一致性气候风险评估
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100602
Laura C. Dawkins , Kate Brown , Dan J. Bernie , Jason A. Lowe , Theodoros Economou , Duncan Grassie , Yair Schwartz , Daniel Godoy-Shimizu , Ivan Korolija , Dejan Mumovic , David Wingate , Emma Dyer

Climate adaptation decision making can be informed by a quantification of current and future climate risk. This is important for understanding which populations and/or infrastructures are most at risk in order to prioritise adaptation action. When assessing the risk of overheating in buildings, many studies use advanced building models to comprehensively represent the vulnerability of the building to overheating, but often use a limited representation of the meteorological (hazard) information which does not vary realistically in space. An alternative approach for quantifying risk is to use a spatial risk assessment framework which combines information about hazard, exposure and vulnerability to estimate risk in a spatially consistent way, allowing for risk to be compared across different locations. Here we present a novel application of an open-source CLIMADA-based spatial risk assessment framework to an ensemble of climate projections to assess overheating risk in ∼20,000 schools in England. In doing so, we demonstrate an approach for bringing together the advantages of open-source spatial risk assessment frameworks, data science techniques, and physics-based building models to assess climate risk in a spatially consistent way, allowing for the prioritisation of adaptation action in this vulnerable young population. Specifically, we assess the expected number of days each school overheats (internal operative temperature exceeds a high threshold) in a school-year based on three global warming levels (recent past, 2 °C and 4 °C warmer than pre-industrial). Our results indicate an increase in this risk in future warmer climates, with the relative frequency of overheating at internal temperatures in excess of 35 °C increasing more than at 26 °C. Indeed, this novel demonstration of the approach indicates that the most at-risk schools could experience up to 15 school days of internal temperature in excess of 35 °C in an average year if the climate warms to 2 °C above pre-industrial. Finally, we demonstrate how the spatial consistency in the output risk could enable the prioritisation of high risk schools for adaptation action.

对当前和未来气候风险的量化可为气候适应决策提供信息。这对于了解哪些人群和/或基础设施面临的风险最大,以便优先采取适应行动非常重要。在评估建筑物过热风险时,许多研究使用先进的建筑模型来全面表示建筑物对过热的脆弱性,但通常使用的气象(灾害)信息表示有限,无法真实反映空间变化。量化风险的另一种方法是使用空间风险评估框架,该框架结合了有关危害、暴露和脆弱性的信息,以空间一致的方式估算风险,从而可以对不同地点的风险进行比较。在这里,我们介绍了一种基于 CLIMADA 的开源空间风险评估框架在气候预测组合中的新应用,以评估英格兰 2 万多所学校的过热风险。在此过程中,我们展示了一种方法,可将开源空间风险评估框架、数据科学技术和基于物理学的建筑模型的优势结合起来,以空间一致的方式评估气候风险,从而为这一脆弱的年轻群体确定适应行动的优先次序。具体而言,我们根据三种全球变暖水平(近期、比工业化前升温 2 ℃ 和 4 ℃),评估了每所学校在一个学年中过热(内部工作温度超过高阈值)的预期天数。我们的研究结果表明,在未来气候变暖的情况下,这种风险会增加,内部温度超过 35 °C 时的过热相对频率比 26 °C 时增加得更多。事实上,这种新颖的方法表明,如果气候变暖到比工业化前温度高 2 °C,风险最高的学校在平均一年中可能会有多达 15 个校内温度超过 35 °C的教学日。最后,我们展示了输出风险的空间一致性如何使高风险学校优先采取适应行动。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “The sacred and climate change: Local perceptions from KaNyaka island in Mozambique” [Clim. Risk Manage. 42 (2023) 100564] 对 "神圣与气候变化:莫桑比克卡尼亚卡岛当地人的看法"[《气候风险管理》第 42 (2023) 100564 期]更正
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100610
Marlino Eugénio Mubai , Salomão Olinda Bandeira , Dadivo José Combane , Tim Daw , Taís Gonzalez , Elizabeth Maria Drury O'Neill , Maria Mancilla Garcia
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the spatial and temporal changes of compound disasters: A case study in Gaoping River, Taiwan 探索复合灾害的时空变化:台湾高屏溪案例研究
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100617
Tzu-Ling Chen, Ting-Xuan Chen, Jin-Cheng Fu

Global climate change has resulted in unusual climatic events of increasing intensity and frequency with severe impacts. An individual disaster is often coupled with another at the same time or in the form of a cascade. Major issues discussed in disaster management range from risks, environmental vulnerability, and resiliency, to the identification of human disaster-inducing land uses and their locations across a region, particularly in watersheds. The accurate identification of these disaster-inducing areas – that is, those locations of land use that may cause or contribute to making downstream impacts worse than they would be in the absence of such land uses – would be of assistance for disaster management agencies in order to mitigate disasters in advance. This study applies spatial autocorrelation statistics to explore the spatial and temporal dynamics associated with compound disasters. The study then utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to calculate runoff volume and sediment discharge to identify the locations of human disaster-inducing land uses. Our modeling outcomes show that there are various kinds of spatial and temporal clusters among compound disasters, and that certain areas are affected by similar disasters regularly while other locations might be the cause of these regular disasters.

全球气候变化导致异常气候事件的强度和频率不断增加,造成严重影响。单个灾害往往与另一个灾害同时发生或以连环形式发生。灾害管理中讨论的主要问题包括风险、环境脆弱性和抗灾能力,以及确定整个地区(尤其是流域)内可引发人类灾害的土地用途及其位置。准确识别这些灾害诱发区(即那些可能导致或加剧下游影响的土地使用位置)将有助于灾害管理机构提前减轻灾害。本研究采用空间自相关统计来探索与复合灾害相关的时空动态。然后,研究利用水土评估工具(SWAT)计算径流量和泥沙排放量,以确定人类灾害诱发土地使用的位置。我们的建模结果表明,复合灾害之间存在各种时空集群,某些地区经常受到类似灾害的影响,而其他地点则可能是这些经常性灾害的起因。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing climate risks from satellite imagery with machine learning: A case study of flood risks in Jakarta 利用机器学习从卫星图像评估气候风险:雅加达洪水风险案例研究
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100651
Jeasurk Yang , Donghyun Ahn , Junbeom Bahk , Sungwon Park , Nurrokhmah Rizqihandari , Meeyoung Cha
Consistent and timely assessment of climate risks is crucial for planning disaster mitigation and adaptation to climate change at the local community level. This article presents an automatized method for monitoring climate risks with machine learning on satellite imagery, specially targeting riverine and coastal floods. Our research demonstrates that disaster-related risk measurement becomes more comprehensive and multi-faceted by including the following components: hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. Our model first maps hazard-related risks with geo-spatial data, then extends the model to incorporate exposure and vulnerability. In doing so, we adopt a clustering-based supervised algorithm to sort satellite images to produce the climate risk scores at a grid-level. The developed model was tested over multiple ground-truth datasets on flood risks in the region of Jakarta, Indonesia. Results confirm that our model can assess climate risks in a granular scale and further capture potential risks in the marginalized areas (e.g., slums) that were previously hard to predict. We discuss how computational methods like ours can support humanitarian projects for developing countries.
对气候风险进行一致而及时的评估,对于在地方社区层面规划减灾和适应气候变化至关重要。本文介绍了一种利用机器学习监测卫星图像气候风险的自动化方法,特别针对河流和沿海洪水。我们的研究表明,与灾害相关的风险测量包括以下组成部分:危害、风险暴露和脆弱性,从而变得更加全面和多面。我们的模型首先利用地理空间数据绘制与灾害相关的风险地图,然后扩展模型,将风险暴露和脆弱性纳入其中。在此过程中,我们采用基于聚类的监督算法对卫星图像进行排序,从而得出网格级的气候风险分数。开发的模型在印度尼西亚雅加达地区的多个洪水风险地面实况数据集上进行了测试。结果证实,我们的模型可以评估细粒度的气候风险,并进一步捕捉到以前难以预测的边缘化地区(如贫民窟)的潜在风险。我们将讨论像我们这样的计算方法如何支持发展中国家的人道主义项目。
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引用次数: 0
Key design considerations for flood risk pooling facilities at the sub-national level 国家以下各级洪水风险汇集设施的主要设计考虑因素
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100671
Kamleshan Pillay
Disaster or catastrophe risk pooling refers to the sharing of risk by entities facing common risk exposure to an individual hazard or set of hazards over a geographical area. Risk pooling members can gain risk diversification benefits such as lower premium costs while facilities based on parametric insurance policies are able to provide timely post-disaster payouts to members. The topic of sub-national catastrophe risk pools is relatively unexplored. Sub-national risk pools are advantageous as they can overcome politicised issues of compromised sovereignty and joint decision-making while enhancing insurance access for smaller, rural sub-national authorities. This research represents a starting point on design considerations for developing a sub-national flood risk pool (SNFRP). The operation of an SNFRP may result in greater spatial correlation. This may affect the financial stability of SNFRPs or diminish the risk diversification benefits over time. The balancing of fully risk-based pricing and affordability is also likely to be a significant challenge for SNFRPs, especially those operating in emerging and developing economies (EMDE). Means-based subsidies can overcome this challenge; however, donor access may be limited. In addition to donor partnerships, SNFRPs require engagements with reinsurers and national government actors to assist with risk transfer and seed capitalisation, respectively. In EMDEs, an SNFRP focused on response and relief will likely be based on parametric insurance policies. Issues such as index selection, geographical basis risk, and data and modelling needs must be carefully considered during the design of flood parametric insurance policies. Geographic basis risk may be amplified in an SNFRP operating at smaller spatial scales as flood events are not restricted to the administrative boundaries of sub-national authorities. Other issues that could influence the implementation of a sub-national facility include gaining political buy-in; access to reinsurance markets; and risk reduction incentivisation.
灾害或巨灾风险共担是指在一个地理区域内,面临单个灾害或一组灾害的共同风险的实体分担风险。风险池成员可以获得风险分散的好处,如降低保费成本,而基于参数保单的设施则能够向成员提供及时的灾后赔付。次国家级巨灾风险池这一主题相对来说还没有得到探讨。国家以下各级风险池的优势在于,它们可以克服主权受损和联合决策等政治问题,同时提高规模较小的农村国家以下各级政府的保险可及性。本研究为开发国家以下各级洪水风险池 (SNFRP) 的设计考虑因素提供了一个起点。国家以下各级洪水风险池的运作可能会导致更大的空间相关性。这可能会影响国家以下洪水风险池的财务稳定性,或随着时间的推移降低风险分散的效益。平衡完全基于风险的定价和可负担性也可能是 SNFRP 面临的一个重大挑战,特别是那些在新兴和发展中经济体(EMDE)运营的 SNFRP。以经济手段为基础的补贴可以克服这一挑战;但是,捐助方可能会受到限制。除捐助方伙伴关系外,SNFRP 还需要与再保险公司和国家政府行为者合作,分别协助风险转移和种子资本化。在欧洲、中东和非洲地区,以应对和救援为重点的 SNFRP 可能会以参数保险单为基础。在设计洪水参数保险政策时,必须仔细考虑指数选择、地理基础风险以及数据和建模需求等问题。由于洪水事件并不局限于国家以下各级当局的行政边界,因此在较小空间范围内运作的国家洪水灾害预警系统(SNFRP)中,地理基础风险可能会被放大。可能影响国家以下各级设施实施的其他问题包括:获得政治支持;进入再保险市场;以及降低风险的激励措施。
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引用次数: 0
Roles and activities of local stakeholders facing Alpine permafrost warming: A comparative exploratory analysis of three contexts and networks of actors 面对阿尔卑斯永久冻土变暖,当地利益相关者的作用和活动:对三种情况和参与者网络的探索性比较分析
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100591
Rafaël Weissbrodt , Sandrine Caroly , Jessica Marques Pisoeiro , Ludovic Ravanel , Xavier Bodin

Mountain permafrost warming resulting from climate change increases gravitational hazards. This interdisciplinary study compares the networks of actors involved in managing such hazards in three regions of the European Alps. Interviews were conducted with 40 people (members of local authorities, mountain professionals, and private citizens) at the foot of Mont Blanc (Chamonix, France), in the Vanoise massif (France), and in the canton of Valais (Switzerland). Data were analysed qualitatively and quantitatively using interaction matrices and network diagrams. Communal authorities played a central role but partnered with many other public and private actors. In Valais, collaboration to protect infrastructure and inhabited areas was centred around communal and cantonal authorities. In Chamonix, the network of actors gave a significant role to mountain professionals. In Vanoise, the network was less dense and less well-defined, although actors had high expectations regarding awareness-raising and prevention. Sources of tension existed in all three networks, particularly between authorities and mountain professionals. To strengthen community resilience, authorities should develop more mechanisms for citizen participation in risk management.

气候变化导致山区永久冻土变暖,增加了重力危害。这项跨学科研究比较了欧洲阿尔卑斯山三个地区参与管理此类灾害的行动者网络。研究人员在勃朗峰脚下(法国夏慕尼)、瓦努瓦兹山丘(法国)和瓦莱州(瑞士)采访了 40 人(地方当局成员、山区专业人士和普通公民)。我们利用互动矩阵和网络图对数据进行了定性和定量分析。市镇当局发挥着核心作用,但也与许多其他公共和私人行为者合作。在瓦莱州,保护基础设施和居民区的合作以社区和州政府为中心。在霞慕尼,山区专业人员在行动者网络中发挥了重要作用。在瓦努阿图,尽管参与者对提高认识和预防工作抱有很高的期望,但该网络的密度较低,定义也不明确。在这三个网络中都存在紧张关系,尤其是在当局和山区专业人员之间。为了加强社区的抗灾能力,当局应建立更多的机制,让公民参与风险管理。
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引用次数: 0
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Climate Risk Management
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