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Patterns of hurricane induced displacement in The Bahamas: Building equitable resilience in small island developing states 巴哈马因飓风而流离失所的模式:建设小岛屿发展中国家的公平复原力
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100634
Stacy-ann Robinson

The extent and severity of disaster displacement in small island developing states (SIDS) often go unreported or underreported in global assessments due to the total number of affected people falling below established thresholds. Additionally, post-disaster assessments prepared by various international relief agencies often present conflicting evidence, and largely do not offer substantial insights into national and subnational spatial and temporal patterns of displacement, particularly with respect to the disproportionate risk that certain localities, communities and populations face over time. This article is a case study of hurricane induced displacement in a Caribbean SIDS – The Bahamas. It triangulates data from a publicly-available global disaster database, weather and post-disaster reports from national government departments and agencies, and newspaper articles. Its qualitative-dominant synthesis represents the best available evidence of hurricane risk across the archipelago between 2004 and 2019, organized according to hazard (winds, storm surge, flooding), exposure (people, livelihoods, assets etc. adversely affected), and vulnerability (the propensity or predisposition for adverse impacts). It finds that 11 hurricanes across three periods caused displacement in one or more of the 17 major islands. In identifying the emerging spatial and temporal patterns, it proposes two alternative core-periphery models for The Bahamas. These models not only provide a more accurate account of the islands’ exposure and sensitivity to hurricanes, but also highlight the geographical factors that should be considered as the basis for future plans, actions, strategies or policies that seek to build equitable resilience to these and other climate-amplified hydrometeorological events in SIDS.

在全球评估中,小岛屿发展中国家(SIDS)因灾流离失所的范围和严重程度往往没有报告或报告不足,原因是受灾总人数低于既定的阈值。此外,各种国际救援机构编制的灾后评估报告往往提出相互矛盾的证据,而且大多不能提供关于国家和国家以下一级流离失所的空间和时间模式的实质性见解,特别是关于某些地区、社区和人口随着时间的推移所面临的不成比例的风险。本文是对加勒比海小岛屿发展中国家--巴哈马--因飓风而流离失所的案例研究。文章从公开的全球灾害数据库、国家政府部门和机构提供的天气报告和灾后报告以及报纸文章中获取数据,对数据进行了三角分析。该报告以定性为主,根据灾害(风、风暴潮、洪水)、风险(受到不利影响的人员、生计、资产等)和脆弱性(受到不利影响的倾向或倾向性)对 2004 年至 2019 年期间巴哈马群岛的飓风风险进行了综合分析,提供了现有的最佳证据。报告发现,三个时期的 11 次飓风在 17 个主要岛屿中的一个或多个造成了流离失所。在确定新出现的空间和时间模式时,报告为巴哈马提出了两种可供选择的核心-外围模式。这些模型不仅更准确地说明了这些岛屿对飓风的暴露程度和敏感性,而且还强调了应考虑的地理因素,这些因素是小岛屿发展中国家未来计划、行动、战略或政策的基础,这些计划、行动、战略或政策旨在建立对飓风和其他气候加剧的水文气象事件的公平复原力。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-criteria decision approach for climate adaptation of cultural resources along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States: Application of AHP method 美国东南部大西洋沿岸文化资源气候适应性的多标准决策方法:AHP 方法的应用
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100587
Abu SMG Kibria , Erin Seekamp , Xiao Xiao , Soupy Dalyander , Mitchell Eaton

Prioritizing climate adaptation actions is often made difficult by stakeholders and decision-makers having multiple objectives, some of which may be competing. Transparent, transferable, and objective methods are needed to assess and weight different objectives for complex decisions with multiple interests. In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to examine priorities in managing cultural resources in the face of climate change at Cape Lookout National Seashore on the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. In this process, we conducted facilitated discussion sessions with the selected stakeholder representatives to elicit a comprehensive list of management objectives. Objectives were then merged into three categories: 1) Maximize retention of historic character and condition (HCC); 2) Foster heritage awareness (HA); and 3) Maximize financial benefits (FB). We facilitated two AHP exercise sessions, both individually and in groups, to seek consensus on the relative importance of the objectives. The AHP process created a space for stakeholders (government agencies and local citizens) to consider and present arguments that we used to contextualize their trade-offs between the objectives. The stakeholders' top priority was to maximize the HCC. This objective was prioritized more than HA and FB in the individual trade-off choices, while HA was given nearly equal priority to FB. The consensus priority vectors of two management objectives (HCC and HA) differ significantly from FB, but the difference between HCC and HA is slight and not statistically different. FB and HA had larger changes in consensus priority vectors among the three objectives relative to individual priority vectors. For HCC, the difference between individual and consensus priority vectors was the smallest and nearly equal. Moreover, very high levels of consistency were found in consensus priority trade-off discussions and AHP application. Our research highlights the advantage of using a two-step AHP process in climate adaptation planning of vulnerable resources to enhance robustness in decision making. Coupling this approach with future efforts to develop management priorities would help estimate indices to determine the order in which adaptation treatments are applied to vulnerable cultural resources.

确定气候适应行动的优先次序往往因利益相关者和决策者拥有多重目标而变得困难,其中一些目标可能是相互竞争的。在涉及多方利益的复杂决策中,需要透明、可转移和客观的方法来评估和权衡不同的目标。在本研究中,我们使用了层次分析法(AHP)来研究美国东南部大西洋沿岸的洛考特角国家海岸在面对气候变化时管理文化资源的优先事项。在此过程中,我们与选定的利益相关者代表进行了讨论,以获得一份全面的管理目标清单。随后,我们将目标合并为三类:1) 最大限度地保留历史特征和历史条件 (HCC);2) 培养遗产意识 (HA);3) 实现经济效益最大化 (FB)。我们协助开展了两次 AHP 工作会议,既有个人会议,也有小组会议,目的是就各项目标的相对重要性达成共识。AHP 过程为利益相关者(政府机构和当地公民)创造了一个考虑和提出论点的空间,我们利用这些论点来说明他们在目标之间的权衡。利益相关者最优先考虑的是最大化 HCC。在个人权衡选择中,该目标的优先级高于 HA 和 FB,而 HA 的优先级几乎与 FB 相当。两个管理目标(HCC 和 HA)的共识优先级向量与 FB 有显著差异,但 HCC 和 HA 之间的差异很小,在统计上没有差异。相对于单个优先级向量,FB 和 HA 在三个目标之间的共识优先级向量变化较大。而对于总部合同委员会,单个优先向量与共识优先向量之间的差异最小,几乎相等。此外,在共识优先权权衡讨论和 AHP 应用中发现了非常高的一致性。我们的研究强调了在脆弱资源的气候适应规划中使用两步式 AHP 流程的优势,以提高决策的稳健性。将这种方法与未来制定管理优先级的工作相结合,将有助于估算指数,以确定对脆弱文化资源采取适应性处理措施的顺序。
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引用次数: 0
Disparities between climate change facts and farmer’s awareness and perception in an arid region: A case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin in northwest China 干旱地区气候变化事实与农民认识和感知之间的差异:中国西北黑河流域中下游案例研究
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100588
Benli Liu , Wanyue Peng , Yunhua Zhang

Arid areas are sensitive and vulnerable to climate change and may face more climate risks in the future under the background of global warming. The adaptability of society to future climate change impacts relies heavily on the awareness and perception of local populations. This study focuses on the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River, which is the second-largest inland river in China, and examine the temperature and precipitation changes from 1981 to 2020, employing the Sen + Mann-Kendall trend analysis method. The local farmers and herdsmen were interviewed, and their variations in awareness and perception regarding climate change were assessed. The results show that local residents are highly sensitive to climate warming but not to precipitation increases, indicating that the communities faces substantial constraints imposed by limited water resources. Residents of the downstream desert area feel a wetter climate than those of the mountain and oasis areas in the middle reach, suggesting a greater water scarcity pressure in the latter. The increased allocation of ecological water to the downstream portion of the Heihe river, as implemented by the “97″ water distribution plan in 2000, may be a contributing factor to this phenomenon. The disparities in the fact and residents’ awareness and perception of climate change are different among the mountainous, oasis, and desert regions, which are influenced by regional differences in climate change, agricultural production conditions, and water policies. The government should consider these factors when formulating water policies to ensure successful and balanced development.

干旱地区对气候变化非常敏感和脆弱,在全球变暖的背景下,未来可能面临更多的气候风险。社会对未来气候变化影响的适应能力在很大程度上取决于当地居民的意识和观念。本研究以中国第二大内陆河--黑河中下游为研究对象,采用森+曼-肯德尔趋势分析方法,考察 1981-2020 年间气温和降水的变化情况。对当地农牧民进行了访谈,评估了他们对气候变化的认识和感知变化。结果表明,当地居民对气候变暖高度敏感,但对降水增加并不敏感,这表明社区面临着水资源有限所带来的巨大限制。与中游山区和绿洲地区的居民相比,下游沙漠地区的居民感觉气候更加湿润,这表明后者面临着更大的缺水压力。2000 年实施的 "97″水量分配方案增加了黑河下游地区的生态水量分配,可能是造成这种现象的一个因素。受气候变化、农业生产条件和水利政策等地区差异的影响,山区、绿洲和沙漠地区的事实和居民对气候变化的认识和感知存在差异。政府在制定水政策时应考虑这些因素,以确保成功和均衡的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Co-designing a just resilience balance scorecard with experts in islands and coastal cities 与岛屿和沿海城市的专家共同设计一个公平的弹性平衡计分卡
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100577
Priscila Carvalho, Catalina Spataru

The growing focus on enhancing resilience in international humanitarian communities and vulnerable regions underscores the need for advancing theoretical and empirical tools. This research introduces a balance scorecard co-developed with users to monitor justice in disaster risk reduction and resilience (DR3) with a specific emphasis on floods, droughts and heatwaves. The goal is facilitating the integration of risk reduction, climate adaptation, and sustainability into development planning across various locations. The participatory design of the balance scorecard engages 71 stakeholders in vulnerable emerging market economies in the Global South. We take a nexus approach towards critically linked resources (water, energy, land, food, materials), global agendas (Climate Change Adaptation, Sustainable Development Goals and Sendai Framework), vulnerability factors (hazard, exposure and capabilities) and environmental justice dimensions (distribution, participation, capabilities and recognition). Stakeholders confirm the findings from literature that disaster risk governance tends to be more responsive than preventive. The research contributes by introducing temporal dimensions into the balance scorecard, covering anticipation, assessment, prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. This enhances the granularity of pre-emergency phases in risk management, enabling a dynamic analysis of justice considerations given the unique challenges faced by different communities at each stage of the risk management cycle.

加强国际人道主义社区和脆弱地区的抵御力日益受到重视,这凸显了推进理论和实证工具的必要性。本研究引入了一种与用户共同开发的平衡计分卡,用于监测减少灾害风险和恢复力(DR3)中的公平性,特别强调洪水、干旱和热浪。目标是促进将风险降低、气候适应和可持续性纳入各地的发展规划。平衡计分卡的参与式设计涉及全球南方脆弱新兴市场经济体的71个利益相关者。我们对关键相关资源(水、能源、土地、食物、材料)、全球议程(气候变化适应、可持续发展目标和仙台框架)、脆弱性因素(危害、暴露和能力)和环境正义维度(分布、参与、能力和认可)采取联系方法。利益相关者证实了文献中的发现,即灾害风险治理往往更倾向于响应而不是预防。该研究通过在平衡计分卡中引入时间维度,包括预期、评估、预防、准备、响应和恢复。这加强了紧急情况前风险管理阶段的粒度,鉴于不同社区在风险管理周期的每个阶段面临的独特挑战,能够动态分析司法方面的考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of outdoor heat adaptation on indoor thermal conditions – Combining microscale urban climate and building performance simulation 室外热适应对室内热条件的影响--结合微尺度城市气候和建筑性能模拟
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100615
Christoph Schünemann , Tim Felix Kriesten , Uta Moderow , Astrid Ziemann

To what extent can outdoor heat adaptation measures in urban districts help to reduce high indoor temperatures in buildings and thus enhance indoor thermal conditions? To answer this question microscale meteorological simulation (MMS) and building performance simulation (BPS) are combined in a model chain approach. Two existing residential German districts with different urban designs are modelled in the MMS tool ENVI-met. For both districts, a representative residential building (one from the Wilhelminian period and one large panel construction type) is modelled using the BPS tool IDA-ICE. Different scenarios of heat adaptation measures are applied to analyse how changes in urban and building design (e.g. white (cool) roofs (high albedo), white traffic areas (high albedo), intensive green roofs, urban trees, facade insulation or facade greening) affect outdoor and indoor temperatures. The MMS results highlight that the district from the Wilhelminian period is less heat resilient and that the efficacy of heat adaptation measures on heat reduction in open space depends on the urban design and the daytime. Regarding the efficacy of heat adaptation measures on indoor thermal conditions, our findings indicate that the larger share of the indoor cooling effect is not caused by the outdoor air temperature reduction by the outdoor heat adaptation measures but by the change of the building physics in the BPS model (e.g. changing the surface reflectance of the white roofs). White roofs and intensive green roofs show the largest cooling effect by reducing the operative room temperature by more than 1 Kelvin. Our findings also demonstrate that facade insulation can act as both, climate adaptation and mitigation measures.

城市地区的室外热适应措施能在多大程度上帮助降低建筑物的室内高温,从而改善室内热条件?为了回答这个问题,我们采用了一种模型链方法,将微尺度气象模拟(MMS)和建筑性能模拟(BPS)结合起来。在 MMS 工具 ENVI-met 中模拟了两个具有不同城市设计的德国现有住宅区。对于这两个地区,使用 BPS 工具 IDA-ICE 对一栋具有代表性的住宅楼(一栋是威廉时期的住宅楼,一栋是大型板式建筑)进行建模。应用不同的热适应措施方案,分析城市和建筑设计的变化(如白色(凉爽)屋顶(高反照率)、白色交通区域(高反照率)、密集绿化屋顶、城市树木、外墙隔热或外墙绿化)如何影响室外和室内温度。多变量模型的结果表明,威廉明尼安时期的地区对热的适应能力较弱,在开放空间采取的热适应措施对减少热量的效果取决于城市设计和白天的情况。关于热适应措施对室内热条件的影响,我们的研究结果表明,室内降温效果的较大部分不是由室外热适应措施降低室外气温造成的,而是由 BPS 模型中建筑物理的变化(如改变白色屋顶的表面反射率)造成的。白色屋顶和密集绿化屋顶显示出最大的降温效果,可将工作室内温度降低 1 开尔文以上。我们的研究结果还表明,外墙隔热既可以作为气候适应措施,也可以作为气候减缓措施。
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引用次数: 0
Adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices (CSAPs) in Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚采用气候智能型农业做法 (CSAPs)
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100628
Assefa Abegaz , Wuletawu Abera , Stephanie Jaquet , Lulseged Tamene
<div><p>To ensure climate-resilient food and other production systems, countries must adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate-change. Adopting climate-smart agricultural practices (CSAPs) will significantly contribute to such adaptation and mitigation. In global, regional, and African contexts, Ethiopia represents a useful case study from which much can be learned. Therefore, the fourfold objectives of this Ethiopia-focused review were to i) synthesize adoption studies of more than seven CSAPs; ii) examine their adoption status, including gender considerations, socioeconomic benefits, and constraints to CSAP adoption; iii) identify gaps in the current CSAPs adoption literature, and iv) highlight future CSAP research and policy directions. Following a systematic literature review procedure, 100 articles published between 2001 and 2021 on adoption of CSAPs in Ethiopia were reviewed. Although all the publications were about the highlands of Ethiopia, over 80% came from the regions of Amhara, Oromiya, and South Nations and Nationalities. The most-adopted practice was soil and water conservation (SWC), with a mean adoption rate of 61.5%, followed by integrated soil fertility management, and agroforestry with mean adoption rates of 56.5% and 48.8%, respectively. Gender analysis was integrated in the studies at varying levels, including in all improved livestock management initiatives; just over half the SWC initiatives; and over 75% of the remaining five practices. Quantified socioeconomic benefits were reported in only 46 papers. Greater farm income; increased land productivity; higher yields; increased food availability; and reduced household poverty were among the reported benefits of adopters compared to their counterparts. Among the aggregated constraints, socioeconomic factors and knowledge/awareness were ranked the two highest, followed by labor shortage and limited market access. The study highlighted research gaps, especially a lack of national-scale studies and studies focusing on drought-prone regions. Additionally, 37% and 46% of the studies respectively, didn’t consider i) gender, and ii) analysis of socioeconomic benefits of CSAP adoption. This Ethiopian review reveals a need to fill research gaps in methodologies and practices, and at all levels in all regions, particularly in drought-prone regions. It identifies those CSAPs which could contribute more to addressing climate change, and emphasizes the need for greater gender inclusion. Policy-related actions should i) boost CSAP-related <em>knowledge</em>; ii) support optimizing their <em>socioeconomic benefits</em>; iii) address <em>labor shortages</em>; iv) improve access to <em>irrigation</em>, <em>markets</em>; <em>credit</em>, and <em>farmers’ social organizations</em>; and v) strengthen <em>land tenure</em>. In future, deploying remote-sensing technology, artificial intelligence and modelling approaches, and implementing Agricultural Weather Index-Based Insurance may also suppo
为确保粮食和其他生产系统具有气候复原力,各国必须适应和减缓气候变化的影响。采用气候智能型农业实践(CSAPs)将极大地促进这种适应和减缓。在全球、地区和非洲背景下,埃塞俄比亚是一个有益的案例研究,可以从中学习到很多东西。因此,这篇以埃塞俄比亚为重点的综述有四个目标:i) 综合七项以上 CSAPs 的采用研究;ii) 检查其采用状况,包括性别因素、社会经济效益以及采用 CSAPs 的限制因素;iii) 找出当前 CSAPs 采用文献中的不足之处;以及 iv) 强调未来 CSAPs 的研究和政策方向。按照系统的文献综述程序,对 2001 年至 2021 年间发表的 100 篇有关埃塞俄比亚采用 CSAPs 的文章进行了综述。尽管所有出版物都是关于埃塞俄比亚高原地区的,但 80% 以上来自阿姆哈拉、奥罗米亚和南方各族地区。采用最多的做法是水土保持(SWC),平均采用率为 61.5%,其次是土壤肥力综合管理和农林业,平均采用率分别为 56.5%和 48.8%。性别分析被纳入了不同程度的研究中,包括所有改良牲畜管理措施、略高于一半的小农作物综合管理措施以及超过 75% 的其余五种做法。只有 46 篇论文报告了量化的社会经济效益。所报告的采用者与采用者相比获得的效益包括:农场收入增加;土地生产力提高;产量提高;粮食供应增加;以及家庭贫困减少。在汇总的制约因素中,社会经济因素和知识/意识是排名最高的两个因素,其次是劳动力短缺和市场准入受限。该研究强调了研究差距,尤其是缺乏全国范围的研究和针对干旱易发地区的研究。此外,分别有 37% 和 46% 的研究没有考虑 i) 性别因素和 ii) 采用 CSAP 的社会经济效益分析。埃塞俄比亚的这次审查表明,有必要填补方法和实践方面的研究空白,并在所有地区的各个层面进行研究,尤其是在易旱地区。它确定了那些可以为应对气候变化做出更大贡献的 CSAP,并强调了进一步纳入性别平等的必要性。与政策相关的行动应包括:i) 增加与全面综合农业行动计划相关的知识;ii) 支持优化其社会经济效益;iii) 解决劳动力短缺问题;iv) 改善灌溉、市场、信贷和农民社会组织的准入;v) 加强土地保有权。今后,部署遥感技术、人工智能和建模方法,以及实施基于农业气象指数的保险,也可为采用综合农业行动计划提供支持。
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引用次数: 0
Living in the ‘Blue Zone’ of a sea-level rise inundation map: Community perceptions of coastal flooding in King Salmon, California 生活在海平面上升淹没地图的 "蓝区":加利福尼亚州国王鲑鱼社区对沿海洪水的看法
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100596
Laurie Richmond , Kristina Kunkel

As sea-level rise (SLR) inundation maps proliferate, it is important to study their politics – both how they are created and how they act upon and shape various lives and places. This paper uses the example of King Salmon, CA – a rural, low-income residential area projected to be one of the most at risk to SLR on the US West Coast – to examine how a community responds to external projections showing SLR risk to their homes and businesses. Through interviews with 17 King Salmon community members and observation of a county-hosted ‘communities at risk’ workshop, we examined the community’s social context, their past experiences with flooding, and their reaction to SLR projection maps including what next steps they would like to see taken. Residents expressed a strong connection to the place, noting that it is one of the few affordable places to live on the coast in California. We found that residents already live with regular flooding during larger tides of the year and have taken steps to adapt. We observed a strong generational component in responses to projection maps with many older respondents believing or hoping that the worst effects from SLR would not come until after they passed away. Residents expressed a lack of faith in government to address flooding concerns both at present and into the future, noting that general maintenance issues have gone unaddressed for decades. Many residents interviewed and observed seemed open or at least resigned to the possibility of relocation at a future undetermined time. This work reveals the power dynamics inherent in climate projections like SLR maps, which, due to their technical nature and mobility, can leave communities out of conversations related to potential futures. Findings also have implications related to climate and SLR work – highlighting the importance of understanding community context; contributing to equity considerations about how wealth and other demographic factors shape how communities interact with SLR planning; and spotlighting the need for sustained learning, engagement, and co-production with communities in the ‘blue zones’ of SLR inundation maps.

随着海平面上升(SLR)淹没地图的大量涌现,研究其政治性就显得尤为重要--既要研究它们是如何绘制的,也要研究它们是如何影响和塑造各种生活和地方的。本文以加利福尼亚州国王鲑鱼镇为例--该镇是一个农村低收入居民区,预计将成为美国西海岸海平面上升风险最大的地区之一--研究该社区如何应对显示其住宅和商业面临海平面上升风险的外部预测。通过对 17 名国王鲑鱼社区成员的访谈以及对该县主办的 "风险社区 "研讨会的观察,我们研究了该社区的社会背景、他们过去的洪灾经历以及他们对可持续土地退化和干旱预测图的反应,包括他们希望采取的下一步措施。居民们表达了与当地的紧密联系,并指出这是加利福尼亚沿海地区为数不多的可负担得起的居住地之一。我们发现,这里的居民已经在一年中较大的潮汐期间经常遭受洪水侵袭,并已采取措施加以适应。我们注意到,在对预测地图的反应中,有很大的代际因素,许多年长的受访者认为或希望他们会在可持续土地退化造成的最大影响到来之前死去。居民们表示对政府解决当前和未来洪水问题缺乏信心,并指出一般的维护问题几十年来一直没有得到解决。许多接受采访和观察的居民似乎对在未来某个未确定的时间搬迁的可能性持开放态度,或者至少是逆来顺受。这项工作揭示了可持续土地退化和干旱地图等气候预测中固有的权力动态,由于其技术性和流动性,这些预测可能会将社区排除在与潜在未来相关的对话之外。研究结果还对气候和可持续土地退化和干旱工作产生了影响--强调了了解社区背景的重要性;促进了关于财富和其他人口因素如何影响社区与可持续土地退化和干旱规划互动的公平考虑;并突出了在可持续土地退化和干旱淹没地图的 "蓝色区域 "与社区进行持续学习、参与和共同生产的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Adaptations of potato production to future climate change by optimizing planting date, irrigation and fertilizer in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of China 在中国农牧生态区通过优化种植日期、灌溉和施肥使马铃薯生产适应未来气候变化
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100604
Jianzhao Tang , Huizi Bai , Shenghai Zhang , Dengpan Xiao , Zheng Tianzhu , De Li Liu , Bin Wang , Puyu Feng

Future climate change, especially rising temperature and varying precipitation will have significant impacts on potato production. Revealing the optimum planting date, irrigation schedule and fertilizer amount under future climate scenarios is critical for promoting sustainable potato production in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone (APE). In this study, two representative stations of Wuchuan (WC) and Zhangbei (ZB) in APE were selected, firstly, we used well validated APSIM-Potato model to optimize the planting date of potato in future climate scenarios. Then the impacts of different combination of N fertilizer and irrigation on potato yield, N loss, water use efficiency (WUE), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and economic income were analyzed under optimal planting date. The future climate projection was provided by 13 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under two emission scenarios of future societal development pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585. Compared with baseline period (1981–2010), the planting windows during 2040 s (2031–2060) and 2080 s (2071–2100) were wider, and the optimal planting dates (OPDs) for rainfed potato should be arranged later under SSP245, but it should be earlier under SSP585. However, the OPDs for irrigated potato should advance under SSP245 and SSP585. Then, we analyzed the coupling effects of irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer on potato production under OPDs in future climate scenarios. Irrigation was carried out based on the soil water deficit within 1 m depth (IR, ranged from 10 mm (IR10) to 100 mm (IR1) with the interval of 10 mm) and fertilizer was set with 8 treatments (N, ranged from 0 kg ha−1 (N0) to 210 kg ha−1 (N7) with the interval of 30 kg ha−1). To achieve highest yield, maximum amount of N (N7, 210 kg ha−1) coupled with IR10 (irrigation applied if soil water deficit beyond 10 mm) should be applied for both WC and ZB station. However, these combinations would accumulatively decrease groundwater table (GDT) by 70.8–76.5 m (39.1–44.8 m) and 78.7–80.2 m (38.6–47.4 m) during 2040 s and 2080 s, and induce annual N loss by 21.6–27.3 kg ha−1 (24.7–25.3 kg ha−1) and 17.7–21.9 kg ha−1 (18.3–21.2 kg ha−1) at WC (ZB), respectively. Net income of potato under different combinations of irrigation and N fertilizer ranged from −10700 to 25,500 Yuan ha−1 and from −4100 to 26,600 Yuan ha−1 at Wuchuan and Zhangbei. To maximize the income of farmers, N4 (120 kg ha−1) coupled with IR9 (irrigation applied if soil water deficit beyond 20 mm) should be applied at the two study sites. Our results would be helpful in developing adaptable strategies for potato production to cope with future climate change in the APE.

未来的气候变化,尤其是气温升高和降水量变化将对马铃薯生产产生重大影响。揭示未来气候情景下的最佳播种期、灌溉时间和施肥量对于促进农牧生态区(APE)马铃薯的可持续生产至关重要。本研究选取了农牧生态区具有代表性的武川和张北两个站点,首先利用经过充分验证的 APSIM-Potato 模型对未来气候情景下的马铃薯播种期进行了优化。然后分析了最佳种植期下不同氮肥和灌溉组合对马铃薯产量、氮损失、水利用效率、氮利用效率和经济收入的影响。在未来社会发展路径(SSP)245 和 SSP585 两种排放情景下,由耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段(CMIP6)的 13 个全球气候模式(GCM)提供了未来气候预测。与基线期(1981-2010 年)相比,2040 s(2031-2060 年)和 2080 s(2071-2100 年)的种植窗口期更宽,在 SSP245 条件下,雨养马铃薯的最佳种植期(OPDs)应安排得更晚,但在 SSP585 条件下应更早。然而,在 SSP245 和 SSP585 条件下,灌溉马铃薯的最佳播种期应提前。然后,我们分析了未来气候情景下灌溉和氮肥对 OPDs 条件下马铃薯产量的耦合效应。根据 1 米深度内的土壤缺水量进行灌溉(IR,范围为 10 毫米(IR10)至 100 毫米(IR1),间隔为 10 毫米),并设置 8 个肥料处理(N,范围为 0 千克/公顷-1(N0)至 210 千克/公顷-1(N7),间隔为 30 千克/公顷-1)。为了获得最高产量,WC 和 ZB 站都应施用最大氮量(N7,210 千克/公顷-1)和 IR10(土壤缺水量超过 10 毫米时进行灌溉)。然而,在 2040 秒和 2080 秒期间,这些组合将使地下水位(GDT)累积下降 70.8-76.5 米(39.1-44.8 米)和 78.7-80.2 米(38.6-47.4 米),并导致 WC(ZB)的年氮损失量分别为 21.6-27.3 千克/公顷(24.7-25.3 千克/公顷)和 17.7-21.9 千克/公顷(18.3-21.2 千克/公顷)。在不同的灌溉和氮肥组合下,吴川和张北的马铃薯纯收入分别为-10700-25500 元/公顷和-4100-26600 元/公顷。为使农民收入最大化,应在两个研究地点施用氮肥 4(120 千克/公顷)和 IR9(土壤缺水超过 20 毫米时灌溉)。我们的研究结果将有助于制定马铃薯生产的适应性战略,以应对亚太经济合作组织未来的气候变化。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of climate risk adaptation on food security among farming households: The case of Nigeria 气候风险适应对农户粮食安全的影响:尼日利亚的案例
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100600
Mustapha Yakubu Madaki , Miroslava Bavorova , Edvin Zhllima , Drini Imami

Climate risk is a major threat to the sustainable food production of many farmers who depend on rainfed agricultural systems. In response to this threat, climate-smart agricultural innovations, such as drought-tolerant and early mature crop varieties, have been developed and promoted. It is well-known that adopting innovations and improved technologies positively impact adopters' well-being. Therefore, this study sought to determine the factors influencing the adoption of climate risk adaptation strategies and subsequently estimate how food security is affected by the adoption using questionnaire survey data from 1,080 farming households across six agro-ecological zones. The data were analysed using different matching techniques and Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR). The model results reveal that access to extension, crop-related and weather information, access to credit and climate change awareness of farmers increase the adoption likelihood of the climate risk adaptation strategies. Adoption of climate risk adaptation strategies positively impacts the food security of farming households as it increases their dietary diversity score and reduces the food security coping strategy index. Enhancing the accessibility of the drought-tolerant and early mature varieties, promoting crop-related and weather information through extension services, and empowering farmers through credit accessibility would strengthen the adoption of climate risk adaptation strategies to increase food security.

气候风险对许多依赖雨水灌溉农业系统的农民的可持续粮食生产构成重大威胁。为应对这一威胁,开发并推广了气候智能型农业创新,如耐旱和早熟作物品种。众所周知,采用创新和改良技术会对采用者的福祉产生积极影响。因此,本研究试图利用来自六个农业生态区 1080 个农户的问卷调查数据,确定影响采用气候风险适应战略的因素,并据此估算采用气候风险适应战略对粮食安全的影响。数据分析采用了不同的匹配技术和内生转换回归(ESR)。模型结果显示,获得推广、作物相关信息和天气信息、获得信贷以及农民对气候变化的认识都会增加采用气候风险适应战略的可能性。气候风险适应策略的采用对农户的粮食安全产生了积极影响,因为它提高了农户的膳食多样性得分,降低了粮食安全应对策略指数。提高耐旱早熟品种的可获得性,通过推广服务促进作物相关信息和天气信息的传播,以及通过信贷可获得性增强农民的能力,将加强气候风险适应战略的采用,从而提高粮食安全。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating seasonality in cotton-based farming systems in southern Mali 在马里南部以棉花为基础的农业系统中驾驭季节性
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100649
Arouna Dissa , Maja Slingerland , Ken E. Giller , Katrien Descheemaeker

Smallholder farmers’ livelihoods follow predictable and cyclical patterns related to annual cycles of weather, crop and animal production and market fluctuations. Understanding seasonality forms an essential part of unravelling farming systems behaviour and performance, especially in contexts with strong seasonality, such as southern Mali. Farmers make strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to different time horizons to support their agricultural activities. The diverse resource endowments of farming households influence their decisions, and adaptive capacity. This study aimed to understand farmers’ management decisions to cope with weather variability and related consequences. We used a case study approach to analyse temporal interactions between farming system components using data collected over three consecutive years (2017–2019). We focused on three research questions. First, how do farmers navigate the regular patterns of seasonal variations in rainfall, prices, food and fodder availability, and income? Second, how does seasonality influence complementarity between farm components, and trade-offs and synergies among farming objectives that result from the allocation of scarce resources? Finally, how do farming households of different resource endowments respond to unexpected changes and how does this affect the above-mentioned synergies and trade-offs? The data collection methods included (1) focus group discussions, (2) household surveys, and (3) detailed farm monitoring. Farmers undertook diverse production activities, which helped to mitigate negative consequences of crop failure. While providing opportunities for increased adaptive capacity, this diversity also creates interdependencies among farming system components, leading to reinforced positive outcomes in good years and negative outcomes in bad years. This double-edged sword challenges the simple assumption that diversification increases the stability of a farming system. All farm types faced seasonal resource constraints to adapt to unexpected changes. However, the magnitudes of changes in synergies and trade-offs among objectives were less pronounced for medium resource endowed farmers because of their more balanced people- and herd-to-land ratio compared to high resource endowed farmers. Our findings suggest that a better understanding of farm management decisions and the influence of seasonality is key to support farm productivity and to expand the adaptive capacity of smallholders. We suggest that policies aiming to support farm productivity should pay attention to the specific impediments faced by farms with different resource endowments to adapt to changes. Especially, access to credit helps poorer farmers not only to navigate the seasonal food and cash constraints but also to escape poverty traps.

小农的生计遵循与天气、作物和动物生产以及市场波动的年度周期相关的可预测周期性模式。了解季节性是了解农业系统行为和绩效的重要组成部分,尤其是在马里南部等季节性较强的地区。农民根据不同的时间跨度做出战略、战术和经营决策,以支持其农业活动。农户的不同资源禀赋影响着他们的决策和适应能力。本研究旨在了解农民应对天气多变性及相关后果的管理决策。我们采用案例研究方法,利用连续三年(2017-2019 年)收集的数据分析农业系统各组成部分之间的时间互动。我们重点研究了三个问题。首先,农民如何把握降雨、价格、粮食和饲料供应以及收入的季节性变化的规律?其次,季节性如何影响农场各组成部分之间的互补性,以及稀缺资源分配所导致的农业目标之间的权衡和协同作用?最后,不同资源禀赋的农户如何应对意外变化,这对上述协同作用和权衡有何影响?数据收集方法包括:(1)焦点小组讨论;(2)家庭调查;(3)详细的农场监测。农民开展了多种生产活动,这有助于减轻作物歉收的负面影响。这种多样性在为提高适应能力提供机会的同时,也造成了农业系统各组成部分之间的相互依存关系,从而导致丰年时的积极结果得到加强,而歉年时的消极结果得到削弱。这把双刃剑挑战了多样化能提高农业系统稳定性的简单假设。所有类型的农场都面临季节性资源限制,以适应意外变化。然而,与资源禀赋高的农户相比,资源禀赋中等的农户在目标间的协同作用和权衡方面的变化幅度较小,因为他们的人口和畜群与土地的比例更为均衡。我们的研究结果表明,更好地理解农场管理决策和季节性的影响是支持农场生产力和提高小农适应能力的关键。我们建议,旨在支持农场生产力的政策应关注不同资源禀赋的农场在适应变化时所面临的具体障碍。特别是,获得信贷不仅能帮助贫困农户克服季节性粮食和现金限制,还能帮助他们摆脱贫困陷阱。
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