Climate Risk Management最新文献

Migration triggered by climate variability or climate change is often a problematic yet nearly unavoidable adaptation measure, particularly due to the increasing severity of natural hazards. How relocation is negotiated, and risks are evaluated at different scales are still poorly understood. We discuss the temporality and complexity of risks, that are experienced and approached through socio-spatial differences of intersectional embodiment (Sultana, 2020). The study is based on two flood-related qualitative case studies in the small semi-arid and rapidly growing town of Lodwar in the poorest county of Kenya, Turkana. We propose the typology of fast and slow risks to understand the different strategies, negotiations, and priorities of different people involved. Due to political abstraction, three main slow risks were not addressed: concerning land, water, and income. Consequently, vulnerabilities deepened and shifted at different scales: along the axes of gender and able-bodiedness as women and particularly widows, ageing, sick, and single mothers were bearing the main hardship; but also, between communities as hazard risks were deliberately shifted onto a politically less affluent community. We argue that in the process of negotiations, people have been actively advocating for, trying to manage, and rethinking their slow risks. They have often been employing slow responses, particularly in the form of waiting and reimagining.

The exploration of ways to reduce the downside risk of grain yield posed by meteorological disasters has become a primary task in China. This study employs a moment-based model to estimate the downside risks of maize, rice, and wheat yields. It further analyses the risk mitigation effects of implementing a high-standard farmland construction policy in China using a continuous difference-in-differences (DID) model and Chinese provincial data from 2005 to 2017. The results show that the downside risk of wheat yield but not of maize or rice yield increases when meteorological disasters are considered, implying that wheat is more vulnerable to the adverse effects of meteorological disasters than are maize and rice. China’s high-standard farmland construction policy can significantly mitigate the downside risk of wheat yield. The heterogeneity analysis suggests that provinces with higher education levels and lower population density benefit the most from the downside risk reduction due to the implementation of the high-standard farmland construction policy. To further mitigate the downside risk posed by meteorological disasters, China should accelerate the construction of high-standard farmland while simultaneously focusing on upgrading human capital and promoting urbanization in rural areas.

In 2019, the Queensland Department of Health and National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility at Griffith University co-produced three resources to support Queensland Hospital and Health Service (HHS) staff to identify and manage present-day and future risks from climate change. The first resource is two templates to be completed in order to develop a risk management plan: the high-level Scan Cycle template, and the Detailed Cycle template for evaluation of serious risks requiring urgent action. Second, the Guidelines lead the user through the process. Third, an Almanac provides supporting information and links to additional resources. Together, these resources deliver a comprehensive set of tools, known as the ‘Guidance’, to support and guide HHS staff to address their climate change risks. A programme of training workshops was carried out throughout Queensland, taking staff from all HHS sectors through the templates and providing opportunity for in-depth discussion of their risks. Some gaps in the Guidance were identified in the workshops, for example the need to include humidity in the climate scenarios for Queensland’s subtropical and tropical environments, and to consider system-wide interdependencies when identifying effective adaptation strategies for the highly complex HHSs. Some barriers to effective utilisation of the Guidance include, for example its complexity balanced against the time available to staff. The Guidance is an effective tool to promote and guide adaptation action, but in itself is insufficient – it requires senior management support and financing, and possibly regulatory reporting requirements, in order to properly fulfil its role.

The interactions between climate change and homelessness in the United States are neither widely documented nor uniformly quantified. Individuals who experience homelessness are commonly not accounted for in community, state, or federal climate change adaptation planning or vulnerability assessment frameworks. Drawing on established vulnerability assessment publications, this review and analysis presents a standard approach to evaluate the climate vulnerability of an unhoused population, modeled at U.S. census tract granularity. The methodology features recommended steps to leverage modeling-, survey-, and evaluation-based indicators to measure exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to determine vulnerability of an unhoused population to relevant climate impact drivers. Standardizing a vulnerability assessment methodology that prioritizes unhoused populations can facilitate new opportunities for data compilation, enabling assessment practitioners to highlight urgent vulnerability gaps and undertake targeted interventions to improve resilience within an unhoused population.

Agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for agro-pastoral families in the central highlands of Afghanistan. However, their livelihoods have been significantly affected by climate change. This study examines climate change perceptions, consequences, and adaptive capacity from agro-pastoral communities’ experiences and behaviours in the five central provinces of Afghanistan. A survey was conducted in 521 agro-pastoral households to collect data on socioeconomic factors, perceptions, and adaptation indicators. The results show how agro-pastoral communities are affected by climate change, how they adapt, and which factors influence their decision-making and challenges when using traditional knowledge in adaptation. The analysed data revealed perceptions of both the positive and negative consequences of climate change. Positive consequences include shorter cold seasons, fewer avalanches, improved accessibility, reduced fuel requirements for heating, and extended grazing seasons. However, the perceived negative consequences of climate change include recurrence of severe and sustained droughts, decreased snowfall, and reduced crop yields. Additionally, K-means cluster analysis revealed low, medium, and high levels of adaptation to climate change. Agro-pastoral families have adopted various strategies to improve their adaptation to climate change, including crop, soil, water, livestock, expenditure, and livelihood management. Furthermore, socio-demographic factors, drought severity, perceived climate change, and perceived climate change impacts were the main determinants of adaptation to climate change. This study outlines the main gaps and drivers to help future researchers, managers, and decision-makers prioritize their actions based on farmers’ concerns and their adaptive capacity to abate climate change impacts.

While previous studies acknowledge intercropping as a climate-smart agricultural practice and confirm its prominence in developing countries, behavioral factors underlying farmers’ decision in intercropping adoption remain poorly understood. This study assesses and compares the heterogeneity in adoption of intercropping among smallholder farmers in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, through the lens of climate change adaptation. A sample of 1017 smallholder farmers was recruited for a household survey across the three countries using a convenient sampling approach. Principle component analysis (PCA) was performed to identify the main dimensions of farmers’ perception towards climate change and adaptation. Next, generalized order logit regressions were employed to assess the association between farmers’ adoption tendency of intercropping and their perception of climate change and adaptation, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of intercropping, and socio-demographic characteristics. The study shows that perceived climate severity was negatively associated with intercropping adoption tendency in Vietnam and Laos (p < 0.001). In all studied countries, farmers who perceived a higher level of climate change impact were less interested in intercropping. Perceived ease and perceived usefulness of intercropping were positively related to farmers’ adoption of intercropping in the three countries (p < 0.001). Information acquisition on climate change adaptation reduced the willingness to intercrop in Vietnam (p < 0.001) but increased the adoption readiness in Laos (p < 0.001) and Cambodia (p < 0.1). Informal social support hampered readiness to adopt intercropping only in Vietnam (p < 0.001). Lastly, households with a home garden were more willing to adopt intercropping in Laos (p < 0.1) and Cambodia (p < 0.001), compared to households without a home garden. Policies focused on enhancing the perceived ease and benefits of intercropping, alongside improving the access and usability of information on climate change and adaptation, could incentivize adoption of intercropping among smallholder farmers,therefore strengthening their resilience against the impacts of climate change.

Households in the coastal areas are more vulnerable to various environmental, social, and economic disruptions in terms of an intersectionality point of view. As a first step in mitigating potential effects on families, knowing how susceptible they are and, ideally, fortifying themselves against existing and potential disruptions is essential. Vulnerability and adaptive capacity could not be uniformly distributed between households owing to gender-based socio-economic disparities and inequities. This research, thereby, examined the vulnerability and adaptive capacity variation between households headed by males and females in the two coastal areas of an emerging economy like Bangladesh. This study utilized the Evaluation-based on the Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) method and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) technique to conduct the analysis. The EDAS method has been used to analyze the adaptive capacity index. Using BRT, an innovative approach in the area, we showed that male and female-headed households are different in terms of their capability to adapt. The findings from this study suggest that the households led by females are more vulnerable than those headed by males in the study region across a variety of dimensions (social, health, economic, housing, and land ownership) from an intersectionality perspective. The study findings can provide a new outlook for the decision-makers in the coastal region on the vulnerability and adaptive capacity differences among the residents and thus lead to more efficient disaster management practices.

Very little research has focused on climate impacts on aquaculture and the potential of climate information services (CIS) for aquaculture to support sustainable development goals 2030 (SDGs).¹ This study represents an effort to bridge this gap by conducting a first ex-ante economic evaluation of CIS for aquaculture in Bangladesh by semi-automating the extraction of data on climate-induced fish losses during 2011 to 2021 from popular online newspaper articles and corroborating them with available government and satellite datasets. During this period, Bangladesh faced an estimated loss of around 140 million USD for hatcheries, open water fish and shrimp. When validated with a year of country-wide official data on climate-induced economic losses to aquaculture, the damage reported from these media sources is approximately 10 percent of actual losses. Given this rule of thumb, the potential economic value of aquacultural CIS could be up to USD14 million a year, if 10 percent of the damage can be offset by appropriate services through a range of multi-sector efforts to establish and extend these services to farmers at scale.

Climate change-related challenges faced by forest managers are ecological, economic, and social in nature. While several past assessments have looked at the climate-related perceptions and needs of foresters working in rural contexts, urban foresters are not often included in these assessments. Examining foresters’ risk perceptions, adaptation interests and intentions, and need for information/support in rural and urban contexts side-by-side reveals unique opportunities for learning across the rural-to-urban gradient. Through two surveys targeting both rural and urban foresters, we have identified key learning opportunities that support climate-adaptive forest management.

Our analysis shows that many foresters are seeking to maintain current forest conditions or restore forest conditions following a disruption or change, though some see value in transitioning forests to be more resistant and resilient to future climates. We also show a difference in confidence between urban and rural foresters when it comes to addressing climate change through specific adaptation strategies. Based on our findings, we propose facilitated learning opportunities across the rural-to-urban gradient. This would allow urban foresters to learn from rural foresters on topics such as establishment and maintenance of long-term, large, ecologically complex forested areas within cities. Rural foresters could gain insights from their urban counterparts on planting strategies and other approaches that are common in urban settings but novel in rural settings, including stock sourcing and species selection.

To better enable foresters to implement climate adaptation strategies, we suggest: (1) facilitating learning across the rural-to-urban gradient, (2) public engagement trainings and opportunities targeting foresters, (3) workforce development programing, and (4) programs that limit the financial risk that foresters, landowners, and municipalities face when applying forest adaptation strategies to rural or urban lands.