Climate Risk Management最新文献_第3页

Assessing perceptions of various stakeholders on climate change mitigation and adaptation in rural areas in Cameroon: The use of ICTs 评估各利益攸关方对喀麦隆农村地区减缓和适应气候变化的看法：信息通信技术的使用

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100780

Hubert Fudjumdjum, Walter Leal Filho

The threat of climate change is a global issue that requires international attention. These impacts affect agricultural production, with smallholder farmers recording lower yields as rainfall patterns change and the temperatures increase. This study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the potential contributions of information and communication technologies (ICTs) to climate change adaptation and, where applicable, mitigation efforts in rural areas, with a specific emphasis on agricultural adaptation. This qualitative case study was based on three focus group discussions with 30 smallholder farmers in the Koung-Khi department of Western Cameroon. Participants were selected purposively, and the data were analysed thematically using NVivo software. The results indicate that the absence of modern technologies limits rural communities’ ability to adapt to climate change. Additionally, many rural communities require more financial resources to invest in modern technologies to help them adapt to climate change-related impacts. To address the high risks of climate change to agriculture and food security in rural settings, national policies and institutions should develop ICT-based national programs for smallholder farmers and producers. People have gained a deeper understanding of how modern technologies can adapt to climate change, enabling them to diversify and produce crops under various circumstances. Governments and development agencies should promote and support rural adaptation and mitigation by investing in modern technology.

气候变化的威胁是一个需要国际关注的全球性问题。这些影响影响到农业生产，随着降雨模式的变化和气温的升高，小农的产量下降。本研究旨在全面了解信息通信技术（ict）对适应气候变化的潜在贡献，并在适用的情况下对农村地区的减缓工作作出贡献，特别强调农业适应。这一定性案例研究是基于与喀麦隆西部kung - khi省30名小农进行的三次焦点小组讨论。有目的地选择参与者，并使用NVivo软件对数据进行主题分析。结果表明，现代技术的缺乏限制了农村社区适应气候变化的能力。此外，许多农村社区需要更多的财政资源来投资于现代技术，以帮助他们适应与气候变化有关的影响。为了应对气候变化给农村农业和粮食安全带来的高风险，国家政策和机构应该为小农和生产者制定基于信息通信技术的国家计划。人们对现代技术如何适应气候变化有了更深的了解，使他们能够在各种情况下多样化和生产农作物。各国政府和发展机构应通过投资现代技术，促进和支持农村适应和缓解气候变化。

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引用次数: 0

How relocation impacts wellbeing over time and across population groups: The case of Grantham, Australia 随着时间的推移和人口群体的迁移如何影响幸福感：以澳大利亚格兰瑟姆为例

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100781

Annah Piggott-McKellar , Georgia Bergin , Jasmine Pearson

This article examines the planned relocation of Grantham, Australia that underwent a government-supported voluntary land-swap program following a catastrophic flood event in 2011. Using a wellbeing framing, this study investigates the long-term outcomes of the relocation, analysing perspectives of those who remained living in the old site, those who relocated to the new site, those who moved to Grantham after the relocation, and project staff involved in coordinating and managing the relocation process. Findings reveal that relocation has catalysed into diverse wellbeing outcomes for different population groups. While relocated individuals report enhanced physical safety, they also face emotional and psychological hardships, as do those who didn’t relocate. The research further highlights the complexities of community networks and cohesion, noting that the relocation process has led to divisions among residents based on perceived inequities in the relocation process, and the physical separation of the community. This division is experienced by not only those who live at the old site, and those living at the new site, but also newcomers to Grantham. Additionally, an experienced absence of essential community infrastructure, such as social hubs and transport services, has hindered the integration of relocated individuals and newcomers, further impacting broader wellbeing. While the relocation of Grantham was undoubtedly successful in reducing physical exposure for households who relocated, this article underscores the need and challenges in addressing not only physical safety in relocation planning but also the broader social, and psychological dimensions, offering insights for future policies and practices in disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation.

本文考察了澳大利亚格兰瑟姆在2011年一场灾难性的洪水事件后，在政府支持下自愿进行土地交换的计划搬迁。本研究采用福利框架，调查了搬迁的长期结果，分析了那些仍然生活在旧址的人，那些搬迁到新址的人，搬迁后搬到格兰瑟姆的人，以及参与协调和管理搬迁过程的项目工作人员的观点。研究结果表明，搬迁促进了不同人群的不同福祉结果。虽然搬迁的人报告说他们的人身安全得到了加强，但他们也面临着情感和心理上的困难，就像那些没有搬迁的人一样。该研究进一步强调了社区网络和凝聚力的复杂性，指出搬迁过程导致了居民之间的分裂，这是基于搬迁过程中感知到的不平等，以及社区的物理分离。不仅住在旧场地的人和住在新场地的人都经历过这种分裂，格兰瑟姆的新来者也经历过这种分裂。此外，长期缺乏必要的社区基础设施，如社交中心和交通服务，阻碍了重新安置的个人和新移民的融合，进一步影响了更广泛的福祉。虽然格兰瑟姆的搬迁无疑成功地减少了搬迁家庭的身体暴露，但本文强调了在搬迁规划中不仅要解决人身安全问题，还要解决更广泛的社会和心理层面的问题，这为未来减少灾害风险和适应气候的政策和实践提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

From climate change to dam construction: A multi-stressor analysis of global river water temperature change 从气候变化到大坝建设：全球河流水温变化的多应力分析

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100778

Jin Gao, Jiawen Zhang, Yiwei Gong, Kaiming Yang, Weici Quan, Lu Li, Yuxi Wu, Rui Wang, Hongguang Cheng

River water temperature is a critical determinant of aquatic ecosystem health and water resource security. Understanding the compounded effects of climate change and human activities is therefore paramount. This review pioneers a quantitative synthesis of the research landscape, employing bibliometric analysis to move beyond narrative summaries and objectively map the field’s intellectual structure at a global scale. Our analysis confirms climate change as the principal driver of river warming, exacerbated by extreme events. Critically, we highlight the pervasive role of human activities, such as dam construction, urbanization, and land-use change, in modulating these thermal regimes through complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions. A key finding is that while dam operations can antagonistically buffer climate-driven warming by creating thermal lags, urbanization and reduced flows often synergistically amplify it. These multi-stressor dynamics exhibit significant regional and seasonal variation, with urban hotspots and latitudinal disparities being particularly evident. This data-driven mapping underscores the urgent need to shift research towards untangling these interactions. We conclude by advocating for enhanced monitoring, the development of advanced multi-source coupled models, and context-specific management strategies, such as optimized reservoir operations and riparian restoration, to mitigate compounded pressures and enhance ecosystem resilience under global change.

河流水温是水生态系统健康和水资源安全的重要决定因素。因此，了解气候变化和人类活动的复合影响至关重要。这篇综述开创了研究景观的定量综合，采用文献计量学分析超越叙事总结，客观地绘制了全球范围内该领域的知识结构。我们的分析证实，气候变化是河流变暖的主要驱动因素，极端事件加剧了河流变暖。重要的是，我们强调了人类活动的普遍作用，如大坝建设、城市化和土地利用变化，通过复杂的协同和拮抗相互作用来调节这些热状态。一个重要的发现是，虽然大坝运行可以通过产生热滞后来对抗气候驱动的变暖，但城市化和流量减少往往会协同放大气候驱动的变暖。这些多应力源动态表现出显著的区域和季节差异，城市热点和纬度差异尤为明显。这种数据驱动的映射强调了迫切需要将研究转向解开这些相互作用。最后，我们提倡加强监测，开发先进的多源耦合模型，以及针对具体情况的管理策略，如优化水库操作和河岸恢复，以减轻全球变化下的复合压力，增强生态系统的恢复能力。

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引用次数: 0

Bridging community resilience and local planning for climate justice 衔接社区复原力和地方气候正义规划

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100776

Kelsea Best , Qian He , Aaron B. Flores , Donghwan Gu , Junia Howell , David R. Johnson , Yanjun Liao , Allison C. Reilly , Andrew Rumbach , Tamara Sheldon , A.R. Siders , Gabrielle Wong-Parodi , Rachel Young , Deb Niemeier

As the effects of climate change increase, and as the federal government deprioritizes climate action, local governments must grapple with the complex challenge of enhancing resilience. Despite the importance of local-scale planning and finance for equitable climate resilience, the knowledge needed to support such efforts is poorly defined. We outline four challenge areas and corresponding priority considerations: capacity and governance, adaptation and recovery, funding mechanisms, and data and methodological needs. By strengthening knowledge and partnerships in each of these areas, scholars, policymakers, and practitioners can better support communities to respond to and recover from the effects of a changing climate.

随着气候变化影响的增加，以及联邦政府对气候行动的不重视，地方政府必须努力应对增强韧性的复杂挑战。尽管地方规模的规划和融资对于公平的气候适应能力至关重要，但支持此类努力所需的知识却定义不清。我们概述了四个挑战领域和相应的优先考虑：能力和治理、适应和恢复、融资机制以及数据和方法需求。通过加强这些领域的知识和伙伴关系，学者、政策制定者和从业者可以更好地支持社区应对气候变化的影响并从中恢复过来。

引用次数: 0

Assessing exposure inequity to heatwaves between urban and rural populations across 18 Asian countries in a warmer climate 评估在气候变暖的情况下，18个亚洲国家的城乡人口对热浪的暴露不平等

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100777

Meng-Zhuo Zhang , Zhongfeng Xu , Ying Han , Weidong Guo

Continued warming intensifies heatwaves, burdening human health across Asia. Given the distinct vulnerabilities to heat exposure between urban and rural populations, we project future changes in summer heatwave exposure and assess urban–rural exposure inequity throughout 2021–2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios across 18 Asian countries. Results suggest substantial exposure increases in the future against the baseline, primarily driven by climate change. With ongoing urbanization, urban–rural exposure inequity will continuously rise, with India and China emerging as the hardest-hit countries. Generally, urban and rural population exposures tend to increase in the future, whereas urban will contribute 76 % of the total growth on average during 2021–2060 and 90 % during 2061–2100. This inequity can be largely derived from the disparity in urban–rural compounding effects induced by simultaneous changes in climate and population. Furthermore, a novel normalized index is developed to potentially indicate the relative need for developing and implementing future country-level heatwave adaptation measures between urban and rural. Our findings highlight the necessity for tailored adaptation strategies for individual countries, prioritizing the urban for China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, and Malaysia, and equal emphasis placed on implementing heatwave adaptation measures in rural as in urban for Mongolia, as well as Nepal, Bangladesh, and Cambodia under SSP2-4.5. Additionally, incorporating age structures reveals that future population aging will narrow the urban–rural adaptation needs for elderly (60+) adults while widening those for younger (<60) adults. We also emphasize the uncertainty of future exposure changes and their urban–rural inequity, which should be considered for decision-making. Our findings can inform future country-level planning of targeted heatwave adaptations in both urban and rural to cope with continuously increasing heatwave risks. The proposed method can also help assess future exposure inequity to other climate risks between urban and rural populations, which is critical for prioritizing resources and promoting equity in urban–rural climate adaptation policy.

持续变暖加剧了热浪，给亚洲各地的人类健康造成了负担。鉴于城市和农村人口对热暴露的不同脆弱性，我们预测了未来夏季热浪暴露的变化，并评估了18个亚洲国家在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下2021-2100年的城乡暴露不平等。结果表明，主要受气候变化的驱动，未来的暴露量将比基线大幅增加。随着城市化进程的不断推进，城乡暴露不平等将持续加剧，印度和中国将成为受影响最严重的国家。总体而言，城市和农村人口暴露在未来都有增加的趋势，而在2021-2060年和2061-2100年期间，城市人口暴露将平均贡献总增长的76%和90%。这种不平等在很大程度上源于气候和人口同时变化所引起的城乡复合效应的差异。此外，还开发了一种新的标准化指数，以潜在地表明在城市和农村之间制定和实施未来国家级热浪适应措施的相对必要性。我们的研究结果强调了为个别国家制定量身定制的适应战略的必要性，中国、日本、韩国、朝鲜和马来西亚优先考虑城市，蒙古、尼泊尔、孟加拉国和柬埔寨在SSP2-4.5下同样重视在农村实施热浪适应措施。此外，纳入年龄结构的研究表明，未来人口老龄化将缩小老年人（60岁以上）的城乡适应需求，而扩大年轻人（60岁）的城乡适应需求。我们还强调了未来暴露变化的不确定性及其城乡不平等，这在决策时应予以考虑。我们的研究结果可以为未来国家层面的城市和农村有针对性的热浪适应规划提供信息，以应对不断增加的热浪风险。该方法还可以帮助评估未来城乡人口对其他气候风险的暴露不平等，这对于资源优先排序和促进城乡气候适应政策的公平性至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Heat waves in urban areas in Latin America. A review of the literature from the social sciences+ 拉丁美洲城市的热浪。社会科学文献综述+

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100772

A. Vallejos-Romero , A. Mellado , M. Cordoves-Sánchez , C. Cisternas Irarrázabal , A. Boso , F. Sáez-Ardura

As climate change intensifies, the frequency and intensity of heat waves have increased significantly. Adaptation to such extreme events has become a topic of growing research interest. However, scientific production is concentrated in countries of the Global North. In this context, this paper presents a systematic review of publications on social adaptation to heat waves in urban areas of Latin America. The analysis was carried out on 48 publications indexed in Web of Science and Scopus. Four lines of research were identified: (1) outdoor thermal comfort, (2) indoor thermal comfort, (3) health threats and impacts of heat waves, and (4) heat wave mitigation and resilience. In each of these lines of research, several challenges emerge that highlight the need for multidimensional and adaptive approaches to address urban heat in the region, ranging from urban planning to the implementation of contextualised mitigation strategies.

随着气候变化的加剧，热浪的频率和强度显著增加。如何适应这样的极端事件已经成为人们越来越感兴趣的研究课题。然而，科学生产主要集中在北半球国家。在此背景下，本文对拉丁美洲城市地区对热浪的社会适应的出版物进行了系统回顾。该分析是在Web of Science和Scopus中检索的48份出版物中进行的。确定了四个研究方向：(1)室外热舒适；(2)室内热舒适；(3)热浪对健康的威胁和影响；(4)热浪缓解和恢复。在每一项研究中，都出现了一些挑战，这些挑战突出表明需要采取多维和适应性的方法来解决该地区的城市高温问题，从城市规划到实施因地利化的缓解战略。

引用次数: 0

Compound coastal flood exposure in global deltas: an integrated assessment of sea-level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic dynamics 全球三角洲复合沿海洪水暴露：海平面上升、下沉和社会经济动态的综合评估

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100775

Shupu Wu , Can Lu , Johan Reyns , Xudong Zhou , Wenzhen Zhao , Md. Jaker Hossain , Xiuzhen Li , Jiayi Fang , Weiguo Zhang , Heqin Cheng , Qing He

Delta regions worldwide face escalating coastal flood risks driven by the compound effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and vertical land motion (VLM). Existing studies often analyze these hazards separately and rely heavily on simplified static inundation models, limiting the accuracy of flood impact assessments and neglecting dynamic socioeconomic factors. This study develops an integrated framework combining high-resolution VLM monitoring (SBAS-InSAR), dynamic hydrodynamic modeling (LISFLOOD-FP), and socioeconomic projections (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for comprehensive flood impact evaluation in three globally significant deltas: the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), Mississippi, and Yangtze. Results highlight severe and spatially variable subsidence rates—most notably in the GBM Delta (–8.98 mm/year), followed by the Mississippi (–2.93 mm/year) and Yangtze (–1.60 mm/year)—with human activities likely playing an important role in driving surface deformation. Projected flood scenarios (2050 and 2080) indicate significant increases in inundation extents and exposed populations and economic assets, particularly under combined SLR + VLM scenarios. The Yangtze Delta shows the highest economic exposure (up to approximately 1 trillion USD), whereas the GBM Delta exhibits the greatest demographic vulnerability, potentially affecting approximately 20 million individuals. The relative contributions analysis emphasizes an increasing dominance of SLR over time, especially under high-emission scenarios. These findings underscore the critical importance of tailored, region-specific adaptation strategies including resilient infrastructure, nature-based solutions, and adaptive spatial planning.

全球三角洲地区在海平面上升和陆地垂直运动的复合作用下，沿海洪水风险不断上升。现有研究往往分别分析这些灾害，严重依赖简化的静态淹没模型，限制了洪水影响评估的准确性，忽视了动态的社会经济因素。本研究开发了一个综合框架，结合高分辨率VLM监测（SBAS-InSAR）、动态水动力学建模（LISFLOOD-FP）和社会经济预测（共享社会经济路径：SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5），对恒河-雅鲁藏布江-梅格纳河（GBM）、密西西比河和长江三个全球重要三角洲进行综合洪水影响评估。研究结果表明，地表沉降速率具有明显的空间差异，其中以GBM三角洲最为显著（-8.98 mm/年），其次是密西西比河（-2.93 mm/年）和长江（-1.60 mm/年），人类活动可能在地表变形中发挥了重要作用。预测的洪水情景（2050年和2080年）表明，淹没范围、暴露人口和经济资产显著增加，特别是在SLR + VLM组合情景下。长江三角洲的经济风险最高（高达约1万亿美元），而GBM三角洲的人口脆弱性最大，可能影响约2000万人。相对贡献分析强调单反的优势随着时间的推移而增加，特别是在高排放情景下。这些发现强调了有针对性的区域适应战略的重要性，包括弹性基础设施、基于自然的解决方案和适应性空间规划。

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引用次数: 0

Transdisciplinary Knowledge Production for Integrated Climate Risk Management: Application of a Framework in the Dutch Urbanized Delta 综合气候风险管理的跨学科知识生产：一个框架在荷兰城市化三角洲的应用

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100773

Seyedabdolhossein Mehvar , Anne Bruggen , Pradeep Murukannaiah , Catholijn Jonker , Zac Taylor , Tom Daamen

Climate change increasingly impacts the built environment through rising sea levels, intensifying heatwaves, and frequent extreme weather events, especially in low-lying, densely populated countries like the Netherlands. Despite growing urgency, current climate risk management strategies are rather individuated by firms, and siloed across sectors. A lack of shared, accessible knowledge on climate risks to real estate and infrastructure hinders coordinated, transparent, and integrated decision-making. This highlights the need for structured transdisciplinary approaches that foster collaboration between researchers and practitioners to co-produce knowledge and develop integrated adaptation solutions.

This article introduces a novel framework to facilitate transdisciplinary knowledge production for integrated real estate and infrastructure climate risk management. Using a mixed-method approach, the framework is developed through a literature review on transdisciplinary research and further evolved by incorporating practice-based empirical insights and collective experiential learning gained during its application within the Red&Blue (Real Estate Development and Building in Low Urban Environments) case study.

The framework comprises four interconnected phases: (1) knowledge elicitation through a three-layer stakeholder engagement and impact plan, (2) knowledge exploration by combining the institutionalized logics theory and AI-supported techniques, (3) knowledge integration, and (4) knowledge transformation.

Applying the framework to the Red&Blue case study reveals that effective transdisciplinary knowledge production requires not only a structured process but also an adaptive, and iterative approach. Key enablers include sustained stakeholders engagement, safe-space dialogue, conscious knowledge integration, and integrative leadership. These elements foster trust, improve communication, and support the co-creation of actionable and transferable knowledge to address complex climate risk and sustainability challenges in urbanized built environments in the Netherlands and beyond.

气候变化对建筑环境的影响越来越大，包括海平面上升、热浪加剧和极端天气事件频发，尤其是在荷兰等地势低洼、人口稠密的国家。尽管气候风险管理日益紧迫，但目前的气候风险管理战略因公司而异，且各部门相互孤立。缺乏关于房地产和基础设施面临的气候风险的共享、可获取的知识，阻碍了协调、透明和综合的决策。这突出表明需要结构化的跨学科方法，促进研究人员和实践者之间的合作，共同生产知识和开发综合适应解决方案。本文介绍了一个新的框架，以促进跨学科知识生产的综合房地产和基础设施气候风险管理。该框架采用混合方法，通过对跨学科研究的文献综述来开发，并通过将其在红&蓝（低城市环境中的房地产开发和建筑）案例研究中应用过程中获得的基于实践的经验见解和集体经验学习进一步发展。该框架包括四个相互关联的阶段：(1)通过三层利益相关者参与和影响计划获得知识；(2)结合制度化逻辑理论和人工智能支持技术进行知识探索；(3)知识整合；(4)知识转化。将该框架应用于Red&；Blue案例研究表明，有效的跨学科知识生产不仅需要一个结构化的过程，还需要一个自适应的、迭代的方法。关键的促成因素包括持续的利益相关者参与、安全空间对话、有意识的知识整合和综合领导。这些要素促进了信任，改善了沟通，并支持共同创造可操作和可转移的知识，以应对荷兰及其他地区城市化建筑环境中复杂的气候风险和可持续性挑战。

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引用次数: 0

Climate-adaptive prediction of wind erosion risks for earthen heritage under multi-scenario futures 未来多情景下土质遗产风蚀风险的气候适应性预测

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100763

Qiong Wang , Jun Xiao , Anrong Dang , Xiuyun Xu , Jingxiong Huang , Ruihua Zhang

Earthen heritage sites are vital components of global cultural assets, yet face intensifying wind erosion driven by more frequent extreme wind events. Accurate erosion prediction is critical to preserve structural integrity and guide climate-adaptive management under UNESCO’s climate action framework. However, current methods rely on simplified geometry models or limited wind simulations, producing insufficient spatial resolution and overlooking differential mass loss among components. Temporally, projections based on linear extrapolation from typical years neglect long-term, non-stationary trends. This study developed an integrated prediction framework combining centimeter-scale LiDAR modeling, high-resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and CMIP6 multi-scenario climate data. Applied to the representative Chinese earthen heritage site Xixia Imperial Tombs, the framework produces site-wide risk maps and identifies localized high-risk zones. Results quantify nonlinear erosion responses to wind speed gradients, extending conventional initiation thresholds with acceleration inflection points. Temporal resampling refines wind-speed resolution, producing annual projections of cumulative erosion metrics (mass, depth, volume) through 2100 under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. The intermediate SSP2–4.5 pathway shows higher interannual variability and greater mean cumulative erosion than the high-forcing SSP5–8.5 scenario, indicating elevated long-term degradation risk under moderate climate forcing. Both scenarios displayed wide uncertainty ranges, suggesting a substantial likelihood of extreme erosion outcomes beyond mean projections. By integrating high-precision simulation with scenario-sensitive climate data, this framework advances predictive modeling of climate-driven hazards in the built environment and supports resilient planning and conservation of earthen heritage in arid regions.

土制遗产是全球文化资产的重要组成部分，但由于极端风事件的频繁发生，土制遗产面临着日益严重的风蚀。准确的侵蚀预测对于保护结构完整性和指导教科文组织气候行动框架下的气候适应性管理至关重要。然而，目前的方法依赖于简化的几何模型或有限的风模拟，产生的空间分辨率不足，并且忽略了组件之间的质量损失差异。在时间上，基于典型年份的线性外推的预测忽略了长期的、非平稳的趋势。本研究开发了一个结合厘米尺度激光雷达建模、高分辨率计算流体动力学（CFD）和CMIP6多情景气候数据的综合预测框架。应用于具有代表性的中国土制文化遗址西夏王陵，该框架生成了全遗址范围的风险地图，并识别了局部的高风险区域。研究结果量化了风速梯度下的非线性侵蚀响应，用加速度拐点扩展了传统的起始阈值。时间重采样改进了风速分辨率，在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下产生到2100年累积侵蚀指标（质量、深度、体积）的年度预估。与高强迫情景SSP5-8.5相比，中等强迫情景SSP2-4.5表现出更高的年际变率和更大的平均累积侵蚀，表明中等气候强迫下长期退化风险升高。这两种情景都显示出很大的不确定性范围，表明极端侵蚀结果超出平均预测的可能性很大。通过将高精度模拟与场景敏感气候数据相结合，该框架推进了建筑环境中气候驱动灾害的预测建模，并支持干旱地区的弹性规划和土遗产保护。

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引用次数: 0

From Silos to Synergy: Conceptualizing an integrated infrastructure design for climate resilience in Rotterdam 从筒仓到协同：鹿特丹气候适应综合基础设施设计概念化

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100691

Angela Ordóñez Llancce , Yirang Lim , Theresa Audrey O. Esteban , Joep van Leeuwen , Johan Ninan

In recent years, municipalities have been recognised for their crucial role in protecting cities from climate change impacts by adopting mitigative and adaptive strategies to enhance climate resilience. However, anchoring these strategies demands multiple interventions, which are often hindered by the current siloed organization of departments and disciplines. An integrated infrastructure design approach (IIDA) can co-create a process that converges sectors, disciplines, and actors’ interests to tackle this challenge. To this end, this research explores how municipalities can effectively implement IIDA to enhance climate-resilient infrastructures. The city of Rotterdam served as a case study involving a thematic analysis of 21 interviews with internal actors of the municipality. This study identified 19 key factors influencing a municipality’s effectiveness in using an integrated design approach to enhance climate resilience. These influential factors belong to six different dimensions: Human Capacity, Organisational Culture, Governance, Communication, Project Development Process and Finance. The findings suggest that it is essential that actors within municipalities have soft skills such as proactivity and open-mindedness for collaboration. Furthermore, it is necessary to foster an innovative and collaborative culture to enable the development of pilot projects. This, in turn, helps update standards and scale up implementation by aligning integration at the three management levels: strategic, program, and project. Based on the findings, we recommend establishing a multi-dimensional baseline, setting up a communication strategy and tools, build human and institutional capacity through pilots and living labs. This can help municipalities implement an integrated infrastructure design in their organisation, offering a promising future in designing climate-resilient infrastructures.

近年来，市政当局通过采取缓解和适应战略以增强气候适应能力，在保护城市免受气候变化影响方面发挥了至关重要的作用。然而，锚定这些战略需要多种干预措施，这往往受到目前部门和学科孤立组织的阻碍。综合基础设施设计方法（IIDA）可以共同创建一个流程，将部门、学科和参与者的利益融合起来，以应对这一挑战。为此，本研究探讨了市政当局如何有效实施IIDA，以加强气候适应型基础设施。鹿特丹市作为一个案例研究，涉及对该市内部行为者进行21次访谈的专题分析。本研究确定了影响市政当局使用综合设计方法提高气候适应能力有效性的19个关键因素。这些影响因素属于6个不同的维度：人的能力、组织文化、治理、沟通、项目开发过程和财务。调查结果表明，市政当局内部的行为者必须具备积极主动和开放合作等软技能。此外，有必要培育一种创新和协作的文化，使试点项目得以发展。反过来，这有助于更新标准，并通过在三个管理级别（战略、计划和项目）调整集成来扩大实现。根据研究结果，我们建议建立多维基线，制定传播战略和工具，通过试点和活体实验室建设人力和机构能力。这可以帮助市政当局在其组织中实施综合基础设施设计，为设计气候适应型基础设施提供了一个充满希望的未来。

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