Climate Risk Management最新文献

Urban Heat Island (UHI) and Heat Waves (HWs) are very important research topics as they have a strong impact on society and their synergies are not enough understood. Urbanisation and global warming are dynamic processes that amplify the UHI intensity and the HWs, as well as their synergies. In this context, it is not a surprise to see that the number of publications tackling the linkages between UHI and HWs has constantly increased in the last decades. The development of new instruments and technologies allowed for consistent improvements in the temporal and spatial resolution of the data that boosted both the monitoring and analysis of the UHI-HW. The use of satellite remote sensing was very limited at the beginning of the analysed period and has become common practice in the last decade. Last, but not least, the interdisciplinary approaches, including physical, social, and economic aspects are more frequent and support the integrated development of the urban areas. Such changes are captured in this review including more than 400 titles, covering the period 1991–2022, aiming to foster further research on emergent climate change risks at urban scales and contextualise the future urban planning. This review provides a comprehensive, accessible and structured overview of the UHI-HW topic as a support for a better understanding of the gaps to be addressed by future research.

Climate adaptation decision making can be informed by a quantification of current and future climate risk. This is important for understanding which populations and/or infrastructures are most at risk in order to prioritise adaptation action. When assessing the risk of overheating in buildings, many studies use advanced building models to comprehensively represent the vulnerability of the building to overheating, but often use a limited representation of the meteorological (hazard) information which does not vary realistically in space. An alternative approach for quantifying risk is to use a spatial risk assessment framework which combines information about hazard, exposure and vulnerability to estimate risk in a spatially consistent way, allowing for risk to be compared across different locations. Here we present a novel application of an open-source CLIMADA-based spatial risk assessment framework to an ensemble of climate projections to assess overheating risk in ∼20,000 schools in England. In doing so, we demonstrate an approach for bringing together the advantages of open-source spatial risk assessment frameworks, data science techniques, and physics-based building models to assess climate risk in a spatially consistent way, allowing for the prioritisation of adaptation action in this vulnerable young population. Specifically, we assess the expected number of days each school overheats (internal operative temperature exceeds a high threshold) in a school-year based on three global warming levels (recent past, 2 °C and 4 °C warmer than pre-industrial). Our results indicate an increase in this risk in future warmer climates, with the relative frequency of overheating at internal temperatures in excess of 35 °C increasing more than at 26 °C. Indeed, this novel demonstration of the approach indicates that the most at-risk schools could experience up to 15 school days of internal temperature in excess of 35 °C in an average year if the climate warms to 2 °C above pre-industrial. Finally, we demonstrate how the spatial consistency in the output risk could enable the prioritisation of high risk schools for adaptation action.

Global climate change has resulted in unusual climatic events of increasing intensity and frequency with severe impacts. An individual disaster is often coupled with another at the same time or in the form of a cascade. Major issues discussed in disaster management range from risks, environmental vulnerability, and resiliency, to the identification of human disaster-inducing land uses and their locations across a region, particularly in watersheds. The accurate identification of these disaster-inducing areas – that is, those locations of land use that may cause or contribute to making downstream impacts worse than they would be in the absence of such land uses – would be of assistance for disaster management agencies in order to mitigate disasters in advance. This study applies spatial autocorrelation statistics to explore the spatial and temporal dynamics associated with compound disasters. The study then utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to calculate runoff volume and sediment discharge to identify the locations of human disaster-inducing land uses. Our modeling outcomes show that there are various kinds of spatial and temporal clusters among compound disasters, and that certain areas are affected by similar disasters regularly while other locations might be the cause of these regular disasters.

Mountain permafrost warming resulting from climate change increases gravitational hazards. This interdisciplinary study compares the networks of actors involved in managing such hazards in three regions of the European Alps. Interviews were conducted with 40 people (members of local authorities, mountain professionals, and private citizens) at the foot of Mont Blanc (Chamonix, France), in the Vanoise massif (France), and in the canton of Valais (Switzerland). Data were analysed qualitatively and quantitatively using interaction matrices and network diagrams. Communal authorities played a central role but partnered with many other public and private actors. In Valais, collaboration to protect infrastructure and inhabited areas was centred around communal and cantonal authorities. In Chamonix, the network of actors gave a significant role to mountain professionals. In Vanoise, the network was less dense and less well-defined, although actors had high expectations regarding awareness-raising and prevention. Sources of tension existed in all three networks, particularly between authorities and mountain professionals. To strengthen community resilience, authorities should develop more mechanisms for citizen participation in risk management.

The extent and severity of disaster displacement in small island developing states (SIDS) often go unreported or underreported in global assessments due to the total number of affected people falling below established thresholds. Additionally, post-disaster assessments prepared by various international relief agencies often present conflicting evidence, and largely do not offer substantial insights into national and subnational spatial and temporal patterns of displacement, particularly with respect to the disproportionate risk that certain localities, communities and populations face over time. This article is a case study of hurricane induced displacement in a Caribbean SIDS – The Bahamas. It triangulates data from a publicly-available global disaster database, weather and post-disaster reports from national government departments and agencies, and newspaper articles. Its qualitative-dominant synthesis represents the best available evidence of hurricane risk across the archipelago between 2004 and 2019, organized according to hazard (winds, storm surge, flooding), exposure (people, livelihoods, assets etc. adversely affected), and vulnerability (the propensity or predisposition for adverse impacts). It finds that 11 hurricanes across three periods caused displacement in one or more of the 17 major islands. In identifying the emerging spatial and temporal patterns, it proposes two alternative core-periphery models for The Bahamas. These models not only provide a more accurate account of the islands’ exposure and sensitivity to hurricanes, but also highlight the geographical factors that should be considered as the basis for future plans, actions, strategies or policies that seek to build equitable resilience to these and other climate-amplified hydrometeorological events in SIDS.

Prioritizing climate adaptation actions is often made difficult by stakeholders and decision-makers having multiple objectives, some of which may be competing. Transparent, transferable, and objective methods are needed to assess and weight different objectives for complex decisions with multiple interests. In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to examine priorities in managing cultural resources in the face of climate change at Cape Lookout National Seashore on the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. In this process, we conducted facilitated discussion sessions with the selected stakeholder representatives to elicit a comprehensive list of management objectives. Objectives were then merged into three categories: 1) Maximize retention of historic character and condition (HCC); 2) Foster heritage awareness (HA); and 3) Maximize financial benefits (FB). We facilitated two AHP exercise sessions, both individually and in groups, to seek consensus on the relative importance of the objectives. The AHP process created a space for stakeholders (government agencies and local citizens) to consider and present arguments that we used to contextualize their trade-offs between the objectives. The stakeholders' top priority was to maximize the HCC. This objective was prioritized more than HA and FB in the individual trade-off choices, while HA was given nearly equal priority to FB. The consensus priority vectors of two management objectives (HCC and HA) differ significantly from FB, but the difference between HCC and HA is slight and not statistically different. FB and HA had larger changes in consensus priority vectors among the three objectives relative to individual priority vectors. For HCC, the difference between individual and consensus priority vectors was the smallest and nearly equal. Moreover, very high levels of consistency were found in consensus priority trade-off discussions and AHP application. Our research highlights the advantage of using a two-step AHP process in climate adaptation planning of vulnerable resources to enhance robustness in decision making. Coupling this approach with future efforts to develop management priorities would help estimate indices to determine the order in which adaptation treatments are applied to vulnerable cultural resources.

Arid areas are sensitive and vulnerable to climate change and may face more climate risks in the future under the background of global warming. The adaptability of society to future climate change impacts relies heavily on the awareness and perception of local populations. This study focuses on the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River, which is the second-largest inland river in China, and examine the temperature and precipitation changes from 1981 to 2020, employing the Sen + Mann-Kendall trend analysis method. The local farmers and herdsmen were interviewed, and their variations in awareness and perception regarding climate change were assessed. The results show that local residents are highly sensitive to climate warming but not to precipitation increases, indicating that the communities faces substantial constraints imposed by limited water resources. Residents of the downstream desert area feel a wetter climate than those of the mountain and oasis areas in the middle reach, suggesting a greater water scarcity pressure in the latter. The increased allocation of ecological water to the downstream portion of the Heihe river, as implemented by the “97″ water distribution plan in 2000, may be a contributing factor to this phenomenon. The disparities in the fact and residents’ awareness and perception of climate change are different among the mountainous, oasis, and desert regions, which are influenced by regional differences in climate change, agricultural production conditions, and water policies. The government should consider these factors when formulating water policies to ensure successful and balanced development.

The growing focus on enhancing resilience in international humanitarian communities and vulnerable regions underscores the need for advancing theoretical and empirical tools. This research introduces a balance scorecard co-developed with users to monitor justice in disaster risk reduction and resilience (DR3) with a specific emphasis on floods, droughts and heatwaves. The goal is facilitating the integration of risk reduction, climate adaptation, and sustainability into development planning across various locations. The participatory design of the balance scorecard engages 71 stakeholders in vulnerable emerging market economies in the Global South. We take a nexus approach towards critically linked resources (water, energy, land, food, materials), global agendas (Climate Change Adaptation, Sustainable Development Goals and Sendai Framework), vulnerability factors (hazard, exposure and capabilities) and environmental justice dimensions (distribution, participation, capabilities and recognition). Stakeholders confirm the findings from literature that disaster risk governance tends to be more responsive than preventive. The research contributes by introducing temporal dimensions into the balance scorecard, covering anticipation, assessment, prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. This enhances the granularity of pre-emergency phases in risk management, enabling a dynamic analysis of justice considerations given the unique challenges faced by different communities at each stage of the risk management cycle.