Climate Risk Management最新文献

Based on two surveys among Dutch homeowners, we find evidence for a disconnect between flood risk awareness and intentions to mitigate climate change. In terms of awareness, we find that owners of at-risk properties are 9.8 percentage points more likely to see floods as the main threat to their home. However, at-risk owners are also 4.6 percentage points less likely to consider improving their property’s energy efficiency. Trust in flood protection turns out to be a moderator variable. In particular, at-risk owners with high levels of trust are less likely to consider improving energy efficiency than at-risk owners with low levels of trust in flood protection. We discuss implications for climate risk communication.

Monitoring drought in semi-arid regions due to climate change is of paramount importance. This study, conducted in Morocco’s Upper Drâa Basin (UDB), analyzed data spanning from 1980 to 2019, focusing on the calculation of drought indices, specifically the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at multiple timescales (1, 3, 9, 12 months). Trends were assessed using statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s Slope estimator. Four significant machine learning (ML) algorithms, including Random Forest, Voting Regressor, AdaBoost Regressor, and K-Nearest Neighbors Regressor, were evaluated to predict the SPEI values for both three and 12-month periods. The algorithms’ performance was measured using statistical indices. The study revealed that drought distribution within the UDB is not uniform, with a discernible decreasing trend in SPEI values. Notably, the four ML algorithms effectively predicted SPEI values for the specified periods. Random Forest, Voting Regressor, and AdaBoost demonstrated the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values, ranging from 0.74 to 0.93. In contrast, the K-Nearest Neighbors algorithm produced values within the range of 0.44 to 0.84. These research findings have the potential to provide valuable insights for water resource management experts and policymakers. However, it is imperative to enhance data collection methodologies and expand the distribution of measurement sites to improve data representativeness and reduce errors associated with local variations.

As socio-natural phenomena, wildfires are exacerbated by climate change and socioeconomic dynamics. However, the role of socioeconomic uncertainty in shaping future wildfire risk and management remains largely neglected. Building on the notion that risk emerges at the intersection of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, we conduct an integrative literature review to identify the most significant socioeconomic drivers of wildfire risk in the European geographical and institutional context and bring this together with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) perspectives on plausible socioeconomic dynamics. To our knowledge, this is the first study to bridge the gap between wildfire research and socioeconomic scenarios to establish a conceptual understanding of future wildfire risk. The resulting wildfire risk scenario space has two main applications: (i) it acts as a qualitative navigator for factoring socioeconomic uncertainty in model-based wildfire risk assessments, and (ii) it sets the boundary conditions for evaluating the feasibility of management strategies. Sustainable land use practices and profitable agricultural value chains can reduce future wildfire risk (e.g. SSP1), whereas land degradation (e.g. SSP4), and socioeconomic disparities (e.g. SSP3) may increase it. As a result, challenges to future wildfire risk management differ significantly across scenarios, leading to paradoxical situations. In scenarios where vulnerability reduction has significant potential to lower risk, socioeconomic challenges reduce the feasibility of implementing the necessary measures to achieve risk reduction. Similar dilemmas may arise in the context of hazard and exposure. By considering multiple plausible futures, this paper emphasizes the importance of accounting for socioeconomic dynamics in shaping wildfire risk and keeping the design of risk management strategies open and flexible in the face of changing circumstances.

Unlike existing studies that examined the effects of weather variability by relying on the current weather conditions disregarding the long-term influence of historical weather patterns, we jointly estimate the effects of current and past weather variability on rural households’ nutritional status. Using three waves of nationally representative panel data from rural Ethiopia, we show that the nutritional status of farming households, measured by daily intakes of micro-and macronutrients, is more sensitive to past weather variability than the current weather condition. We also find that adverse weather history can trigger responses that are linked to the deterioration of nutritional status.

Preventive measures adopted to protect buildings and infrastructure from extreme weather and natural hazard events may serve to mitigate extensive damage and thus avoid major expenditures to businesses and society. A survey of 1,001 representative companies across different sectors and regions in Norway reveals that most companies fail to prioritise the climate change adaptation of their buildings or infrastructure. Most respondents have not conducted risk assessments. The greatest focus is adopted by large companies, those that own their buildings and infrastructure, and businesses in the primary and energy sectors. Small companies, service sector businesses and companies that rent their buildings and infrastructure are the least well prepared. The largest perceived barrier to adaptation is costs, followed by a lack of knowledge and competence in the fields of climate change impacts and adaptation measures. The large majority state that they do not measure climate change adaptation at all. Less than 10 per cent use indicators or evaluate their climate change adaptation efforts. Survey results suggest that Norwegian businesses need stronger incentives and clearly defined responsibilities, combined with appropriate tools and guidelines relevant to the entire climate change adaptation cycle. These will include the performance of risk assessments, the tracking of their adaptation status, as well as the measurement and evaluation of their climate change adaptation actions with the help of indicators.

Despite the burgeoning literature on adaptive capacity, there is a lack of psychometric approaches for assessing the determinants of adaptive capacity, particularly in food systems in the Global South. The study addressed this knowledge gap by investigating four determinants, previously identified as leverage points, for strengthening adaptive capacity: access to finance, access to and use of information and knowledge, social learning, and gender equality. Drawing on a survey (n = 1,271) of food system actors in Kisumu County, Kenya, we conducted a confirmatory factor analysis, which yielded factors of moderate-high internal validity and reliability. We then used structural equation modelling to examine the causal effect of food system actors’ attitudes and beliefs towards the four leverage points with regards to their perceived adaptive capacity. Two factors, access to finance and social learning, were significant positive predictors of adaptive capacity. A third leverage point factor, gender equality, contributed to the respondents’ perceived adaptive capacity through the mediating factor of assets. The results reveal entry points for strategic adaptation planning and raise complexities related to gender norms and values. We discuss the implications of these findings for adaptive capacity and transformative adaptation theory in food systems in the Global South.

To reduce the escalating maintenance costs for the Norwegian building stock, adapting new building designs to future climate changes becomes necessary. Currently, climate adaptation of moisture safety design by considering future climate loads is not mandatory in the Norwegian building code. This forces building designers to choose between adhering to existing standards and guidelines or investing additional efforts in adapting the building design to future climate change, at higher initial costs and with uncertain long-term benefits. This study aims to analyze the perceptions of Norwegian building physicists of future climate risks and their capacity to influence adaptation efforts in new construction projects. A thematic analysis of 15 semi-structured interviews with Norwegian building physicists from multiple companies and different regions of Norway is presented. The respondents recognize the need to adapt building designs to account for future climate loads more effectively; however, they lack the requisite influence and tools to implement the same. They look to authorities to establish requirements, and research institutes to develop tools that enable them to effectively fulfil their roles. Significant barriers for climate adaptation in building projects include lack of support from other project stakeholders, unavailability of efficient tools based on qualitative risk assessment for addressing climate adaptation, and insufficient focus on climate adaptation in building codes and guidelines. Development of methods for implementing climate adaptation in moisture safety design must reflect this, and quick-to-use robusteness assessment frameworks that treats these uncertainties in a non-quantitative manner are needed.

Changing climate poses significant challenges for smallholder rice farmers. Weather-related deviations from longer-term patterns and crop losses due to abiotic hazards can affect farmer risk preferences and drive adaptive responses. In addition, farmers’ proneness to and past experiences with crop risks such as drought, submergence, and excess soil salinity can impact their baseline risk preferences and their response to changing risks. Using data for Bangladesh from two waves of the Rice Monitoring Survey, climate-related data (precipitation and temperature), farmer reports of crop losses, and measures of proneness to abiotic risks, this article estimates how weather deviations from longer-term trends, crop losses, and proneness to crop risks (submergence, drought, and soil salinity) affect elicited risk preferences over time. This research finds evidence in favor of the hypothesis that larger absolute seasonal deviations from past patterns of seasonal mean daily minimum temperature and seasonal total precipitation yield increased risk aversion. In addition, the research provides mixed evidence with respect to risk proneness and farmers’ change in risk preferences over time. Contrary to our original hypothesis, individuals with land more prone to soil salinity become more risk averse rather than less, but, consistent with our hypothesis, those with land more prone to crop submergence become more risk preferring over time. Because of differences in crop experiences and degrees of proneness to risk, risk preferences for farmers in different regions are predicted to evolve along different pathways. This article contributes to the literature on risk preference formation by considering the possibility that less significant deviations than shocks might also contribute to evolving risk preferences. In addition, the article emphasizes the regional heterogeneity of changing preferences. An ancillary finding of this work suggests that risk preferences are only weakly related over time, contrary to other findings in the literature on the stability of risk preferences. Of policy relevance, the differential experiences in weather variability at the regional and local levels yield important differences in changes in preferences and should give rise to careful, regional-level policies to support adaptation to changing weather.

This study investigates the experiences of violence women faced during and after climate-induced migration in Pakistan, focusing on the context of floods. Through in-depth interviews, the study explores the specific forms of violence experienced by women, the underlying factors contributing to their vulnerability, their coping strategies employed in flood-affected areas, and the disaster management abilities of women in Pakistan. The findings of the study indicate that the economic hardships and poverty, displacement and gender disparities, overcrowded living conditions in relief camps, breakdown of law and order during disasters, and limited access to healthcare services stand out as noticeable reasons for gender-based violence. Key informants reported an increase in domestic violence incidence. However, women’s role as caretakers, their ability to livelihood diversification, and their knowledge of local conditions were among the dominant coping measures in the study area. Therefore, the study suggests implementing gender-sensitive disaster management strategies that prioritize women’s safety, access to resources, strengthening legal protections against gender-based violence, and promoting women’s leadership in disaster preparedness and response efforts.