Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-08-05DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100732
Penglong Gao , Shuochen Xiao , Fara Diva Mustapa
Urban and peri-urban agriculture, also referred to as UPA, focuses on tackling the dual challenges of improving food security while addressing poverty reduction, the negative impacts of rapid urbanization, and climate change resilience at the community level. While meeting these objectives, the productivity and sustainability of UPA is threatened by ever-changing and unpredictable environmental conditions. This holistic review includes synthesizing research on UPA, specifically within the context of its advantages, challenges, and climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. UPA sustainability and resilience in the face of climate change is enhanced by technological innovations such as precision agriculture, vertical farming, AI systems, and hydroponics. The review investigates policies supporting UPA relevant to zoning, incentive design, water provision, and waste management. Results demonstrate UPA’s ability to advance social interactions, improve urban microclimates, mitigate the urban heat island phenomenon, and provide essential ecosystem services though limited by scarce land resources and soil contamination, along with water management challenges and regulatory frameworks. Realization of UPA’s potential in fostering sustainable and resilient urban food systems emphasizes the importance of emerging technologies and integrated policies.
{"title":"A comprehensive review of urban agriculture in a changing climate: Technological innovations and policy frameworks","authors":"Penglong Gao , Shuochen Xiao , Fara Diva Mustapa","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100732","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100732","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban and peri-urban agriculture, also referred to as UPA, focuses on tackling the dual challenges of improving food security while addressing poverty reduction, the negative impacts of rapid urbanization, and climate change resilience at the community level. While meeting these objectives, the productivity and sustainability of UPA is threatened by ever-changing and unpredictable environmental conditions. This holistic review includes synthesizing research on UPA, specifically within the context of its advantages, challenges, and climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. UPA sustainability and resilience in the face of climate change is enhanced by technological innovations such as precision agriculture, vertical farming, AI systems, and hydroponics. The review investigates policies supporting UPA relevant to zoning, incentive design, water provision, and waste management. Results demonstrate UPA’s ability to advance social interactions, improve urban microclimates, mitigate the urban heat island phenomenon, and provide essential ecosystem services though limited by scarce land resources and soil contamination, along with water management challenges and regulatory frameworks. Realization of UPA’s potential in fostering sustainable and resilient urban food systems emphasizes the importance of emerging technologies and integrated policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100732"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144779789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-08-31DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100742
Kelli M. Archie , James C. Arnott , Julie A. Vano , Daniella Hirschfeld , Rebecca Rasch , Emilio Mateo
Climate change and its potential to impact transportation systems poses urgent challenges for sustainability and societal well-being, emphasizing a need to plan to reduce transportation infrastructure’s vulnerability to impacts such as sea level rise, extreme weather events, and increased erosion. Previous research has focused on document analysis and case studies and has highlighted the importance of including transportation professional needs in regard to understanding how transportation professionals use climate science. Through direct inclusion of transportation professional perspectives, this paper aims to fill the gaps in understanding about the use of climate information in transportation planning. To obtain data about local and regional level transportation infrastructure planning and the importance of increased funding on the demand for climate information, we conducted an online survey of regional transportation practitioners (n = 105) from United States Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs). The survey examined what types of climate-related information these regional planners are using in the context of transportation infrastructure planning, how it is used, and what types of decision support practitioners think would be most useful. We also explore how the implementation of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law / Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (BIL/IIJA), alongside other factors, may impact the demand for and use of climate information. We find that information providers need to improve decision support tools so they are (a) easy to use and interpret, (b) include explicit methods for modeling tradeoffs among options, and (c) allow the user to easily identify the impacts of alternative scenarios and decisions. Our data suggest that one of the most obvious ways to increase the use of climate information is to provide continuing education opportunities that empower transportation professionals to understand and use climate information and tools toward resilience goals. Based on responses, we also see opportunities for improved networking to connect transportation professionals with prior climate services experience to those who have less experience.
{"title":"Climate information use in transportation planning: a survey of Metropolitan Planning Organizations","authors":"Kelli M. Archie , James C. Arnott , Julie A. Vano , Daniella Hirschfeld , Rebecca Rasch , Emilio Mateo","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100742","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100742","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change and its potential to impact transportation systems poses urgent challenges for sustainability and societal well-being, emphasizing a need to plan to reduce transportation infrastructure’s vulnerability to impacts such as sea level rise, extreme weather events, and increased erosion. Previous research has focused on document analysis and case studies and has highlighted the importance of including transportation professional needs in regard to understanding how transportation professionals use climate science. Through direct inclusion of transportation professional perspectives, this paper aims to fill the gaps in understanding about the use of climate information in transportation planning. To obtain data about local and regional level transportation infrastructure planning and the importance of increased funding on the demand for climate information, we conducted an online survey of regional transportation practitioners (n = 105) from United States Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs). The survey examined what types of climate-related information these regional planners are using in the context of transportation infrastructure planning, how it is used, and what types of decision support practitioners think would be most useful. We also explore how the implementation of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law / Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (BIL/IIJA), alongside other factors, may impact the demand for and use of climate information. We find that information providers need to improve decision support tools so they are (a) easy to use and interpret, (b) include explicit methods for modeling tradeoffs among options, and (c) allow the user to easily identify the impacts of alternative scenarios and decisions. Our data suggest that one of the most obvious ways to increase the use of climate information is to provide continuing education opportunities that empower transportation professionals to understand and use climate information and tools toward resilience goals. Based on responses, we also see opportunities for improved networking to connect transportation professionals with prior climate services experience to those who have less experience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100742"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144933129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-05-05DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100715
Nora Louise Schwaller , Todd K. BenDor , Alex Greer , Philip R. Berke
Property buyout programs, widely utilized by the US government to mitigate flood vulnerability, pose uncertain social and economic impacts. Prior studies have analyzed the outcomes of buyout participants alone or in comparison with non-movers. We propose a refined approach to better isolate the impacts of participation in buyout program by comparing participants to non-participants that also relocated in the wake of the storm event. Our study compares 267 buyout program participants and 948 non-buyout movers in Harris County, Texas, after Hurricane Harvey. We find that buyout participants tended to move to similar areas as non-buyout movers. This finding suggests that the HMGP program is as successful as the private market at providing options for relocation post-disaster while achieving additional mitigation benefits for the city at large. Our findings suggest a role for increasing benefits of the buyout programs as a means of decreasing program attrition.
{"title":"Migration due to floodplain buyouts mimics general post-disaster migration patterns","authors":"Nora Louise Schwaller , Todd K. BenDor , Alex Greer , Philip R. Berke","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100715","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100715","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Property buyout programs, widely utilized by the US government to mitigate flood vulnerability, pose uncertain social and economic impacts. Prior studies have analyzed the outcomes of buyout participants alone or in comparison with non-movers. We propose a refined approach to better isolate the impacts of participation in buyout program by comparing participants to non-participants that also relocated in the wake of the storm event. Our study compares 267 buyout program participants and 948 non-buyout movers in Harris County, Texas, after Hurricane Harvey. We find that buyout participants tended to move to similar areas as non-buyout movers. This finding suggests that the HMGP program is as successful as the private market at providing options for relocation post-disaster while achieving additional mitigation benefits for the city at large. Our findings suggest a role for increasing benefits of the buyout programs as a means of decreasing program attrition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100715"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143928665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100759
David A. Dawson , Tamsin Mortleman , Angie C. Lamprea-Pineda , David P. Connolly
Hard-engineered defences protect critical coastal infrastructure that, without long-term adaptation planning, will face increased risk of flooding from sea-level rise (SLR). The adaptation pathway (AP) approach has been developed to improve long-term planning for climate change under future uncertainties, however, there remains a lack of asset level examples to inform coastal infrastructure decisions at a sector level. In this paper, a ‘performance-orientated’ AP approach is developed which provides a technique for generating future decision ‘pathways’ for coastal transport infrastructure using open-source data and standard guidance techniques. The application and method are novel because they combine a modified fragility curve approach with climate change projections of sea-level rise and also easily accessible satellite observational data (InSAR) related to local coastal ground movement. Applied to a local railway branch line it is demonstrated, that absent of any adaptation, approximately of the assets will fail the set standard of protection () by . It is also shown that combinations of adaptation options can delay defence protection ‘tipping points’ beyond the study period (). Finally, the use of satellite observations in AP approaches can allow for more detailed and localised information regarding defence failure timings. The ‘performance-orientated’ AP approach can be an insightful tool for strategic planning and policy, and can be achieved without significant organisational capacity.
{"title":"Informing adaptation pathway approaches for vulnerable coastal infrastructure","authors":"David A. Dawson , Tamsin Mortleman , Angie C. Lamprea-Pineda , David P. Connolly","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100759","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100759","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hard-engineered defences protect critical coastal infrastructure that, without long-term adaptation planning, will face increased risk of flooding from sea-level rise (SLR). The adaptation pathway (AP) approach has been developed to improve long-term planning for climate change under future uncertainties, however, there remains a lack of asset level examples to inform coastal infrastructure decisions at a sector level. In this paper, a ‘performance-orientated’ AP approach is developed which provides a technique for generating future decision ‘pathways’ for coastal transport infrastructure using open-source data and standard guidance techniques. The application and method are novel because they combine a modified fragility curve approach with climate change projections of sea-level rise and also easily accessible satellite observational data (InSAR) related to local coastal ground movement. Applied to a local railway branch line it is demonstrated, that absent of any adaptation, approximately <span><math><mrow><mn>83</mn><mo>%</mo></mrow></math></span> of the assets will fail the set standard of protection (<span><math><mrow><mi>SoP</mi></mrow></math></span>) by <span><math><mrow><mn>2050</mn></mrow></math></span>. It is also shown that combinations of adaptation options can delay defence protection ‘tipping points’ beyond the study period (<span><math><mrow><mo>></mo><mn>2150</mn></mrow></math></span>). Finally, the use of satellite observations in AP approaches can allow for more detailed and localised information regarding defence failure timings. The ‘performance-orientated’ AP approach can be an insightful tool for strategic planning and policy, and can be achieved without significant organisational capacity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100759"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145519851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-03-25DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100702
Alan T. Kennedy-Asser , Oliver D. Andrews , Jill Montgomery , Katie L. Jenkins , Ben A.H. Smith , Elizabeth Lewis , Stephen J. Birkinshaw , Helen He , Richard F. Pywell , Matt J. Brown , John W. Redhead , Rachel Warren , Craig Robson , Adam J.P. Smith , Robert J. Nicholls , Donal Mullan , Ryan McGuire
Climate risk modelling provides valuable quantitative data on potential risks at different spatiotemporal scales, but it is essential that these models are evaluated appropriately. In some cases, it may be useful to merge quantitative datasets with qualitative data and local knowledge, to better inform and evaluate climate risk assessments. This interdisciplinary study maps climatic risks relating to health and agriculture that are facing rural Northern Ireland. A large range of quantitative national climate risk modelling results from the OpenCLIM project are scrutinised using local qualitative insights identified during workshops and interviews with farmers and rural care providers. In some cases, the qualitative local knowledge supported the quantitative modelling results, such as (1) highlighting that heat risk can be an issue for health in rural areas as well as urban centres, and (2) precipitation is changing, with increased variability posing challenges to agriculture. In other cases, the local knowledge challenged the national quantitative results. For example, models suggested that (1) potential heat stress impacts will be low, and (2) grass growing conditions will be more favourable, with higher yields as a result of future climatic conditions. In both cases, local knowledge challenged these conclusions, with discomfort and workplace heat stress reported by care staff and recent experience of variable weather having significant impacts on grass growth on farms across the country. Hence, merging even a small amount of qualitative local knowledge with quantitative national modelling projects results in a more holistic understanding of the local climate risk.
{"title":"The role of local knowledge in enhancing climate change risk assessments in rural Northern Ireland","authors":"Alan T. Kennedy-Asser , Oliver D. Andrews , Jill Montgomery , Katie L. Jenkins , Ben A.H. Smith , Elizabeth Lewis , Stephen J. Birkinshaw , Helen He , Richard F. Pywell , Matt J. Brown , John W. Redhead , Rachel Warren , Craig Robson , Adam J.P. Smith , Robert J. Nicholls , Donal Mullan , Ryan McGuire","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100702","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100702","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate risk modelling provides valuable quantitative data on potential risks at different spatiotemporal scales, but it is essential that these models are evaluated appropriately. In some cases, it may be useful to merge quantitative datasets with qualitative data and local knowledge, to better inform and evaluate climate risk assessments. This interdisciplinary study maps climatic risks relating to health and agriculture that are facing rural Northern Ireland. A large range of quantitative national climate risk modelling results from the OpenCLIM project are scrutinised using local qualitative insights identified during workshops and interviews with farmers and rural care providers. In some cases, the qualitative local knowledge supported the quantitative modelling results, such as (1) highlighting that heat risk can be an issue for health in rural areas as well as urban centres, and (2) precipitation is changing, with increased variability posing challenges to agriculture. In other cases, the local knowledge challenged the national quantitative results. For example, models suggested that (1) potential heat stress impacts will be low, and (2) grass growing conditions will be more favourable, with higher yields as a result of future climatic conditions. In both cases, local knowledge challenged these conclusions, with discomfort and workplace heat stress reported by care staff and recent experience of variable weather having significant impacts on grass growth on farms across the country. Hence, merging even a small amount of qualitative local knowledge with quantitative national modelling projects results in a more holistic understanding of the local climate risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100702"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143739433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-02-16DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100695
Mikael Martinsson , Itai Danielski
Weather-based damages in housing insurance correspond to 23 % of all insurance claims in Sweden and include damages from fungi. Some fungi could cause health risks to the tenants, while others can cause rapid structural failure for the building itself, like the dry-rot fungus Serpula lacrymans.
The study aims to analyse a possible connection between the increased rate of insurance claims related to S. lacrymans fungi and climate change. This study uses historical data of 2446 damaged properties from insurance companies and current and future climate data. In addition, eight geographical areas within Sweden with 567 damaged properties were analysed in relation to changes in outdoor temperature over a decade. Finally, a full onsite inspection of 20 infected properties by S. lacrymans fungi was conducted to evaluate common conditions for fungi infections.
The results of this study showed that the S. lacrymans fungus is expected to spread to the northern parts of Sweden even in areas where it could not exist before, while the rate of infected buildings in the southern part of Sweden might decline but not drop to zero. Wooden buildings older constructed before 1980 with chimneys and self-ventilation are at higher risk of infection. Economic implications are significant, with high repair costs rendering some buildings economically unviable, particularly in rural areas. Insurance reimbursement is typically limited to market value loss, indicating location, design, and maintenance status as crucial factors. The results may raise a concern for insurance companies and property owners, especially related to locations in the sparse parts of North of Sweden.
{"title":"Increased risk for damages from the dry-rot fungus Serpula lacrymans on buildings in a changing climate","authors":"Mikael Martinsson , Itai Danielski","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100695","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100695","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Weather-based damages in housing insurance correspond to 23 % of all insurance claims in Sweden and include damages from fungi. Some fungi could cause health risks to the tenants, while others can cause rapid structural failure for the building itself, like the dry-rot fungus <em>Serpula lacrymans</em>.</div><div>The study aims to analyse a possible connection between the increased rate of insurance claims related to <em>S. lacrymans</em> fungi and climate change. This study uses historical data of 2446 damaged properties from insurance companies and current and future climate data. In addition, eight geographical areas within Sweden with 567 damaged properties were analysed in relation to changes in outdoor temperature over a decade. Finally, a full onsite inspection of 20 infected properties by <em>S. lacrymans</em> fungi was conducted to evaluate common conditions for fungi infections.</div><div>The results of this study showed that the <em>S. lacrymans</em> fungus is expected to spread to the northern parts of Sweden even in areas where it could not exist before, while the rate of infected buildings in the southern part of Sweden might decline but not drop to zero. Wooden buildings older constructed before 1980 with chimneys and self-ventilation are at higher risk of infection. Economic implications are significant, with high repair costs rendering some buildings economically unviable, particularly in rural areas. Insurance reimbursement is typically limited to market value loss, indicating location, design, and maintenance status as crucial factors. The results may raise a concern for insurance companies and property owners, especially related to locations in the sparse parts of North of Sweden.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100695"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-08-15DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100736
Miguel Quishpe , Irene Acosta-Vargas , Adrian Buenaño , Bryan Rosero , Maria Reyes , Gustavo Duran , Rasa Zalakeviciute
Climate change is currently one of the greatest global concerns, as it increases the probability and magnitude of climate threats, putting population at risk, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the Ecuadorian Amazon Region (EAR). This area is known for its exceptional biodiversity and indigenous ethnic diversity but faces significant socioeconomic and environmental problems. The culturally diverse Amazonian tribes historically inhabit remote and difficult-to-access regions, which is reflected in low-level infrastructure and limited access to social services. These characteristics, combined with the lack of quantifiable data for the EAR, hinder the development of effective adaptation plans for climate hazards. To address this challenge, the present study evaluated climate risks under the current conditions and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The study followed the recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment (MOVE). Fuzzy logic was employed for the normalization and aggregation of multiple indicators classified under ecological and socioeconomic infrastructures. This approach allows the handling of scattered and complex information by generating partial or intermediate values, unlike classical logic, which is limited to binary outcomes (true or false). The main findings indicate that climate risk is high across the EAR in all scenarios, with particularly sever risks in the northern part of the region. Three consistent hotspots were identified in Lago Agrio, Shushufindi and Orellana, municipalities located within indigenous territories. This research provides a framework to support decision-making based on spatial analysis of climate-related information. We recommend incorporating ecological infrastructure into the development of holistic climate change adaptation plans, complementing traditional socio-economic assessments.
{"title":"Vulnerability and climate risk assessment in the Ecuadorian Amazon Region, based on ecological and socioeconomic infrastructures","authors":"Miguel Quishpe , Irene Acosta-Vargas , Adrian Buenaño , Bryan Rosero , Maria Reyes , Gustavo Duran , Rasa Zalakeviciute","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100736","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100736","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is currently one of the greatest global concerns, as it increases the probability and magnitude of climate threats, putting population at risk, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the Ecuadorian Amazon Region (EAR). This area is known for its exceptional biodiversity and indigenous ethnic diversity but faces significant socioeconomic and environmental problems. The culturally diverse Amazonian tribes historically inhabit remote and difficult-to-access regions, which is reflected in low-level infrastructure and limited access to social services. These characteristics, combined with the lack of quantifiable data for the EAR, hinder the development of effective adaptation plans for climate hazards. To address this challenge, the present study evaluated climate risks under the current conditions and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The study followed the recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment (MOVE). Fuzzy logic was employed for the normalization and aggregation of multiple indicators classified under ecological and socioeconomic infrastructures. This approach allows the handling of scattered and complex information by generating partial or intermediate values, unlike classical logic, which is limited to binary outcomes (true or false). The main findings indicate that climate risk is high across the EAR in all scenarios, with particularly sever risks in the northern part of the region. Three consistent hotspots were identified in Lago Agrio, Shushufindi and Orellana, municipalities located within indigenous territories. This research provides a framework to support decision-making based on spatial analysis of climate-related information.<!--> <!-->We recommend incorporating ecological infrastructure into the development of holistic climate change adaptation plans, complementing traditional socio-economic assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100736"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144890459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2024-12-21DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100683
Junren Wang , Megan Konar , Patrese Nicole Anderson , Protensia Hadunka , Brian Mulenga
Crop diversification is a farming practice for risk management prevalent in smallholder agriculture, offering adaptive benefits against challenges like climate change, price fluctuations, and crop disease. Despite its importance, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the relationship of crop diversification and current and historical climate shock. Our study seeks to bridge this gap through statistical analysis of household- and district-level data in Zambia. Specifically, we use the Pooled Fractional Probit (PFP) estimator to develop regression models for crop diversification, analyzing 6625 households for 3 years and 74 districts for 9 years, using Rural Agriculture Living Survey (RALS) and Crop Forecast Survey (CFS) datasets, respectively. Simpson’s Diversity Index (SDI) of crops serves as the dependent variable and is consistently higher at the district level than at the household level, suggesting that aggregation at larger scales may mask localized monoculture vulnerabilities. Our findings reveal that both current and historical climate shocks significantly influence crop diversification decisions at both the household and district levels in Zambia. Heat stress and rainfall deficits during the planting season promote crop diversification, but their effects vary due to the diverse agroecological conditions and crop characteristics in different areas. Historical climate shocks prompt farmers to diversify as a long-term resilience strategy. This study emphasizes the complex, scale-dependent drivers of crop diversification in response to climate shocks, providing valuable insights for policy development in climate-resilient agricultural strategies.
{"title":"Impact of current and historical climate shocks on crop diversification in Zambia: Insights from household- and district-level observations","authors":"Junren Wang , Megan Konar , Patrese Nicole Anderson , Protensia Hadunka , Brian Mulenga","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100683","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100683","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Crop diversification is a farming practice for risk management prevalent in smallholder agriculture, offering adaptive benefits against challenges like climate change, price fluctuations, and crop disease. Despite its importance, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the relationship of crop diversification and current and historical climate shock. Our study seeks to bridge this gap through statistical analysis of household- and district-level data in Zambia. Specifically, we use the Pooled Fractional Probit (PFP) estimator to develop regression models for crop diversification, analyzing 6625 households for 3 years and 74 districts for 9 years, using Rural Agriculture Living Survey (RALS) and Crop Forecast Survey (CFS) datasets, respectively. Simpson’s Diversity Index (SDI) of crops serves as the dependent variable and is consistently higher at the district level than at the household level, suggesting that aggregation at larger scales may mask localized monoculture vulnerabilities. Our findings reveal that both current and historical climate shocks significantly influence crop diversification decisions at both the household and district levels in Zambia. Heat stress and rainfall deficits during the planting season promote crop diversification, but their effects vary due to the diverse agroecological conditions and crop characteristics in different areas. Historical climate shocks prompt farmers to diversify as a long-term resilience strategy. This study emphasizes the complex, scale-dependent drivers of crop diversification in response to climate shocks, providing valuable insights for policy development in climate-resilient agricultural strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100683"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-01-15DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100688
Hyerim Yoon, Anna Ribas
Despite clear evidence of increasing heatwaves in the Mediterranean region, coastal cities in Spain are often reluctant to recognize these events as significant risks, largely due to the economic benefits a warm climate brings to their tourism industry. This reluctance exists despite the fact that many residents in these cities, particularly those working in tourism, face economic hardship due to the precarious nature of the sector. Our research focuses on Lloret de Mar, Catalonia, to examine the impacts of heatwaves in vulnerable households. We analyze the vulnerability and resilience of these households to extreme heat events and heatwaves by studying lived experiences identifying their coping strategies and the barriers they face. To gather data, we conducted 28 interviews and participatory mapping exercises with users of a food distribution center run by Caritas. Participants frequently reported experiences of extreme discomfort at home, describing symptoms such as exhaustion, suffocation, and excessive sweating, exacerbated by high humidity levels. The study found that participants have limited coping mechanisms, relying mainly on natural ventilation and fans. Some are constrained to staying at home due to economic challenges, with no opportunity to use vacation as a respite. The participatory mapping further revealed that these households are regularly exposed to heat during their daily activities. In the absence of effective municipal or collective adaptation strategies, vulnerable households remain entrapped in increasingly unlivable conditions. Our findings underscore the urgent need for localized adaptation plans that address the specific needs of the community, especially given the current municipal policies that are heavily focused on sustaining the tourism industry.
尽管有明确的证据表明地中海地区的热浪越来越多，但西班牙的沿海城市往往不愿意将这些事件视为重大风险，这主要是由于温暖的气候给其旅游业带来的经济利益。尽管这些城市的许多居民，特别是从事旅游业的居民，由于该部门的不稳定性质而面临经济困难，但这种不情愿仍然存在。我们的研究重点是加泰罗尼亚的Lloret de Mar，以检查热浪对脆弱家庭的影响。通过研究这些家庭的生活经历，确定他们的应对策略和面临的障碍，我们分析了这些家庭对极端高温事件和热浪的脆弱性和复原力。为了收集数据，我们与明爱经营的食品配送中心的用户进行了28次访谈和参与式测绘活动。参与者经常报告在家中极度不适的经历，描述了疲惫、窒息和过度出汗等症状，高湿度加剧了这些症状。研究发现，参与者的应对机制有限，主要依靠自然通风和风扇。由于经济困难，一些人被迫呆在家里，没有机会利用假期来喘息。参与式测绘进一步显示，这些家庭在日常活动中经常暴露在高温下。在缺乏有效的市政或集体适应战略的情况下，脆弱家庭仍然处于日益不适宜居住的环境中。我们的研究结果强调，迫切需要制定本地化的适应计划，以满足社区的具体需求，特别是考虑到当前的市政政策主要侧重于维持旅游业。
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Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2025-07-10DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100726
Md. Hayder Khan Sujan , Md Abdur Rouf Sarkar , Monira Sultana , Md. Ali Akber , Andrew M. McKenzie , Mohammad Mizanul Haque Kazal , Imrul Islam , Ammar Abdul Aziz
Crab fattening has been flourishing along the coastal regions of South Asian countries, including Bangladesh, offering significant livelihood opportunities for local dwellers, yet its economic viability remains underexplored. This study evaluates the economic viability (profitability and risk), determinants of crab production, technical efficiency, and factors contributing to inefficiency among crab fatteners in coastal Bangladesh, utilizing panel data from 2018 and 2023, for the first time. Fixed-effects regression was employed to identify the drivers of crab production, while a true random-effects Cobb-Douglas panel stochastic frontier model was used to estimate technical efficiency. The profitability of crab fattening declined from USD 3,978 per hectare in 2018 to USD 3,351 per hectare in 2023. Despite this decline, both crab production and prices increased over time, mitigating the risk of losses and ultimately enhancing economic viability. Factors positively influencing production included age, education, income, access to credit, proximity to output markets, crab price, crablet stocking, feed, and water exchange, whereas disease prevalence had a negative impact. The mean technical efficiency of crab fatteners improved from 0.69 in 2018 to 0.74 in 2023. Education, income, crab price, and market proximity positively influenced technical efficiency, while distance to extension offices and disease prevalence negatively impacted it. Enhanced extension support, improved access to credit, fair market pricing, and the development of hatcheries for quality crablet could bolster the success of this climate-smart aquaculture practice, aiding Bangladesh in achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2.3 of doubling the agricultural productivity and income of small-scale farmers.
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