Climate Risk Management最新文献

Climate change and natural hazards present a major risk to individuals and communities; however, the current quantitative risk assessment methodologies struggle to capture the wider consequences that arise from society’s complex interconnections. These complex interconnections exist due to the number of mutually dependent systems and mean that impacts on one system can be felt in another. These cascading impacts present a major challenge to climate risk assessments. Climate risk assessments often consider a range of “wellbeing” or “value” domains; for example, in New Zealand the five wellbeing domains are Natural Environment, Human, Economic, Built Environment, and Governance. Existing assessments have sought to characterize the risk to each domain, but do not quantitatively or rigorously consider the interplay between the domains. For example, how does the risk to the human domain change as a result of the impacts to the built environment? This interplay and the ensuing cascading impacts could substantially modify the assessed risk. The change could potentially alter the prioritization and subsequent adaptation plans. In this paper, we show that considering cascading impacts not only increases the magnitude of risk but can shift the prioritization. This highlights the importance of capturing cascading impacts for effective adaptation to climate change.

Climate change-related challenges faced by forest managers are ecological, economic, and social in nature. While several past assessments have looked at the climate-related perceptions and needs of foresters working in rural contexts, urban foresters are not often included in these assessments. Examining foresters’ risk perceptions, adaptation interests and intentions, and need for information/support in rural and urban contexts side-by-side reveals unique opportunities for learning across the rural-to-urban gradient. Through two surveys targeting both rural and urban foresters, we have identified key learning opportunities that support climate-adaptive forest management.

Our analysis shows that many foresters are seeking to maintain current forest conditions or restore forest conditions following a disruption or change, though some see value in transitioning forests to be more resistant and resilient to future climates. We also show a difference in confidence between urban and rural foresters when it comes to addressing climate change through specific adaptation strategies. Based on our findings, we propose facilitated learning opportunities across the rural-to-urban gradient. This would allow urban foresters to learn from rural foresters on topics such as establishment and maintenance of long-term, large, ecologically complex forested areas within cities. Rural foresters could gain insights from their urban counterparts on planting strategies and other approaches that are common in urban settings but novel in rural settings, including stock sourcing and species selection.

To better enable foresters to implement climate adaptation strategies, we suggest: (1) facilitating learning across the rural-to-urban gradient, (2) public engagement trainings and opportunities targeting foresters, (3) workforce development programing, and (4) programs that limit the financial risk that foresters, landowners, and municipalities face when applying forest adaptation strategies to rural or urban lands.

Large-scale climate variability patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence the hydrology and hence affect the management of water resources in numerous regions around the globe. The presence of multiyear drought and wet periods is already challenging as these long, extreme, events tend to stress water resources systems much more than multiple, isolated, ones. This manuscript presents a variant of a hydrologically-driven approach to assess the performance of large-scale water resources systems in regions where the long-term persistence that characterizes the flow regime is likely to be affected by climate change. This approach comprises several steps including the construction of a large ensemble of hydrological projections which are bias-corrected in the frequency domain to account for the long-term persistence; the clustering of these projections based on hydrologic attributes to identify likely alterations of the flow regime; and the use of an optimization model to derive allocation policies tailored to identified alterations of the flow regime. The proposed approach is tested on the Senegal River basin which has experienced multiyear dry, normal, and wet periods in the past. The analysis of allocation policies highlights the relevance of climate-tailored policies in adapting to climate change, with climate tailored policies yielding moderate gains under the most extreme alterations, while they remain meaningful under more moderate ones.

Nepal has more than a decade of experience in formulating and implementing climate change policies, plans, frameworks, and institutional mechanisms for local adaptation. Drawing upon this experience, this research aims to elucidate the existing policies, institutional commitments and capacity that underpin local adaptation. Furthermore, it seeks to delineate the mechanism through which these commitments are translated into action fostering empowerment of poor and vulnerable communities for locally led adaptation (LLA). Our research involved a comprehensive review of major policies and legal and procedural documents related to climate change adaptation. We analyzed Local Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA), carried out in-depth interviews with frontline actors and a participant observation and focus group discussions with LAPA communities. The research features that despite a strong policy commitment, adaptation in Nepal is struggling with institutional barriers, contested interest between key authorities, limited capacity, and unequal distribution of resources to support LLA. The LAPA analysis shows the priorities and investment plans are mostly intended to continue business as usual practices addressing bio-physical and natural hazards rather than properly understanding and addressing underlying, pre-existing, and structural causes of vulnerabilities. Notwithstanding the established evidence about differential impacts of climate change, the response mechanisms have exhibited limited realization of this knowledge. Future trajectory of LLA in Nepal hinges on the proactive efforts of the government to reform institutional and fund flow mechanisms, capacity, commitment, and a changing mindset for the devolution of decision making at the local level and making a substantial progress in climate financing.

Urban green space (UGS) offers users multiple ecosystem services and amenities. This study investigated whether residents used UGS visitation in summer as a sustainable measure to tackle hot weather and associated climate-change impacts in humid-subtropical Hong Kong. Attributes of the indoor residential environment, seldom examined in park-visitation studies, were evaluated as push factors to visit UGS through a push–pull theoretical framework. A questionnaire survey of 483 respondents targeted urban park users. The results indicated that UGS visit frequency and stay duration were relatively low in hot summer. Ordinal multiple regression showed that indoor living conditions, residence location, living routine, and habit and personal health impacts were significantly correlated with UGS visits. Interdependence between push and pull factors was detected, demonstrating that intrinsic UGS environmental conditions could constrain UGS visits despite the motivations of push factors. The results indicated the need to improve the microclimate-regulating function in UGS. It could be achieved mainly by optimizing the nature-based design to promote UGS as an adaptive measure to combat the thermal stress brought by climate change. The findings yielded hints to shape visiting habits and suggestions to improve UGS management.

The Mediterranean Sea Basin (MSB) is experiencing increasing pressure on its natural resources due to climate change (CC) and demographic growth, posing challenges to water and food sustainability. In line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus, this study projects shifts in welfare and food security under various climatic conditions. Agriculture, a sector that is highly vulnerable to climate variability, depends predominantly on rainfed croplands, which constitute 70-100% of agricultural land in most MSB countries. The remaining areas are irrigated by climate-dependent water bodies such as rivers and aquifers.

A comprehensive analysis of the WEFE nexus is essential for a coherent examination of climate policy and future pathways for the economy and the natural environment. Using a dual-modeling approach, this research assesses the impacts of alternative water sources and irrigated agriculture within the MSB amidst uncertainties of CC-driven extreme events. A global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, based on the GTAP framework, was used to examine inter-sectoral and inter-regional impacts. In tandem, the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) based on the RICE-99 framework quantifies the uncertainties related to future extreme climatic events. This synergistic approach provides a comprehensive assessment of CC impacts, integrating adaptation strategies for alternative water sources and irrigated agriculture, as well as mitigation strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy production.

The focus on cross-sectoral and multi-scale management of water, ecosystems, and food in the MSB was embedded into the economic models - CGE GTAP-AW and IAM RICE-MED, to analyze the impacts of CC adaptation and mitigation strategies on the WEFE nexus. The results indicate a reduced impact of CC on food production, and provide a comprehensive overview of potential adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce food security risks in the MSB. These findings are crucial for policymakers to promote sustainable water and agricultural practices in the face of a changing climate.

Drought is one of the most significant and complex climate risks, with profound effects on reducing agricultural production and exacerbating poverty and food insecurity worldwide in the absence of effective mitigation measures. Climate assessments indicate that drought will affect the majority of world regions in the future, with agricultural-dependent communities bearing the brunt of its impacts. Therefore, managing measures to mitigate the effects of drought is crucial in this regard. This research aims to (1) examine the adoption status of adaptation strategies and (2) identify the influential factors affecting the adoption of drought mitigation measures in Iran. The study population consisted of all rural agricultural households in Kerman Province (southeastern Iran). In order to accurately select the studied samples, calculation of drought severity was done based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In this research, an extended version of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), incorporating new variables including trust, self-efficacy, social influence, facilitating conditions, perceived risk, resistance to use, and performance expectancy, was utilized as the theoretical framework. Data analysis was conducted using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results revealed that all adaptation strategies of farmers under drought conditions were categorized into five classes: Social activities (SA), Physical infrastructure management (PIM), Financial management (FIM), Farm management (FM), Irrigation and water management (IWM), and Crop management (CM). Furthermore, SEM results indicated that all hypothesized relationships in this context were significant, and the research variables explained 58% of the variance in the adoption of adaptive behaviors. Lastly, considering that trust had the most significant effect on the adoption of adaptation measures, policymakers in this field are recommended to increase farmers’ trust in these strategies by conducting thorough needs assessments and identifying the most effective strategies. Moreover, organizing appropriate workshops and training courses can enhance farmers’ awareness and understanding of adaptation measures for mitigating the impacts of drought.

Climate hazards threaten the health and wellbeing of people living in urban areas. This study characterized reported climate hazards, adaptation action, and barriers to adaptation in 124 Latin American cities, and associations of climate hazards with urban social and built environment characteristics. We examined cities that responded to a global environmental disclosure system and that were included in the Urban Health in Latin America (SALURBAL) Project database.

The cities studied reported a median of three climate hazards. The most reported hazards were storms (61%) water scarcity (57%) extreme temperature (52%) and wildfires (51%). Thirty-eight percent of cities reported four or more distinct types of hazards. City size, density, GDP, and greenness were related to hazard reports, and although most cities reported taking actions to reduce vulnerability to climate change, 23% reported no actions at all. The most frequently reported actions were hazard mapping and modeling (47%) and increasing vegetation or greenspace coverage (45%). Other actions, such as air quality initiatives and urban planning, were much less common (8% and 3%, respectively). In terms of challenges in adapting to climate change, 35% of cities reported no challenges. The most frequently reported challenges were urban environment and development (43%) and living conditions (35%). Access to data, migration, public health, and safety/security were rarely reported as challenges. Our results suggest that climate hazards are recognized, but that adaptation responses are limited and that many important challenges to response action are not fully recognized.

This study contributes to understanding of local priorities, ongoing actions, and required support for urban climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation responses. Findings suggest the need for future research documenting local perceptions of climate hazards and comparison with documented climate hazards.

The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation is a key process that embeds adaptation in all sectors’ decision-making processes. In order to achieve successful adaptation, we need a socio-ecological transformation that is enabled by robust decision-making which prioritises adaptation. However, measuring the status of adaptation mainstreaming is quite challenging, and few studies have elucidated differences in adaptation mainstreaming among sectors; we therefore propose an assessment framework that does so. Three dimensions illustrating the pathways of adaptation mainstreaming are suggested: awareness, adaptation readiness and advanced implementation. We identify barriers, opportunities and differences among the three sectors of biodiversity conservation, forest management and water management in South Korea. Our results uncover different pathways to mainstreaming adaptation. Levels of awareness and readiness in relation to risk information, institutional arrangements and the active practical implementation of adaptation measures were found to be highest in the water management sector. In the biodiversity conservation sector, levels of active perception, preparation and implementation of adaptation measures in national sectoral policies were found to be relatively low. We also identify the most common barriers and required resources to mainstreaming adaptation and suggest priority entry points for each sector, including the abundant provision of sector-specific risk information and adoption guideline, awareness-raising on national climate change risk, improvements on organizational support, and reinforcing and the preparation of in-house monitoring and evaluation systems. Overall, this study offers insights into the measurement of adaptation mainstreaming by assessing pathways to successful adaptation. As assessing gaps and progress in adaptation is essential for the facilitation of transformational change, it is critical to examine long-term mainstreaming across diverse sectors.