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Just beach 只是海滩
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100790
Kammie-Dominique Tavares , Renee O. Setter , Tanya Dreizin , Alan Clinton , Alisha Summers , Makena Coffman
Sandy beaches are being squeezed out of existence due to a combination of erosion, coastal development, poor management practices, and sea level rise. This study offers a beach-scale analysis of the cost of managed retreat for the island of Kaua‘i through the end of the century, prompted by state laws to preserve sandy beaches and County efforts to implement proactive planning solutions. We estimate the cost of property acquisition, deconstruction, and infrastructural realignment across forty beaches under future projections of coastal erosion and sea level rise − a total of $3.1 billion ($2025). Half of the total costs through 2100 is for immediate (2025) needs ($1.7 billion), 94% of which is road infrastructure and the water supply pipes underneath. Infrastructure dominates the total cost of adaptation ($2.0 billion). While residential development represents the largest land use type impacted by coastal erosion, residential parcels account for the second greatest share of adaptation costs ($0.6 billion). Meanwhile, hotel and resort areas affect fewer beaches yet with substantial costs ($0.5 billion). Our results show that historical coastal planning decisions have created development lock-in patterns that make beach-centered adaptation costly. Furthermore, as achieving justice within adaptation relies on information at multiple spatial and temporal scales, this study can be used to inform broader deliberations for sea level rise adaptation.
由于侵蚀、海岸开发、管理不善和海平面上升,沙滩正在逐渐消失。这项研究提供了一个海滩规模的成本分析,到本世纪末,考艾岛管理撤退的成本,受到国家法律保护沙滩和县努力实施积极规划解决方案的推动。根据未来海岸侵蚀和海平面上升的预测,我们估计了40个海滩的房产收购、解构和基础设施重组的成本——总计31亿美元(2025年美元)。到2100年,总成本的一半将用于当下(2025年)的需求(17亿美元),其中94%用于道路基础设施和地下供水管道。基础设施占适应总成本的大头(20亿美元)。虽然住宅开发是受海岸侵蚀影响最大的土地利用类型,但住宅地块占适应成本的第二大份额(6亿美元)。与此同时,酒店和度假区对海滩的影响较少,但成本却很高(5亿美元)。我们的研究结果表明,历史上的沿海规划决策创造了发展锁定模式,使以海滩为中心的适应成本高昂。此外,由于在适应中实现正义依赖于多个时空尺度的信息,因此该研究可用于为更广泛的海平面上升适应讨论提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Taking values seriously for transformational climate change adaptation 认真对待转型适应气候变化的价值观
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100791
Elisa Calliari , Tara Quinn , Michael Klenk , Lovleen Bhullar , Iva Peša , Matthew J. Dennis
Climate change is causing extensive and unprecedented impacts on individuals, societies, and ecosystems. Transformational efforts are increasingly advocated to overcome limits to climate change adaptation, but they can entail difficult and potentially disruptive decisions that depend on the goals that individuals and societies decide to pursue, and thus on the values they wish to prioritise, reconfigure or leave behind in response to radical changes. The call for transformational adaptation revives the impetus for placing values centre stage but also poses key challenges for adaptation research and practice. This perspective outlines three challenges for taking values seriously: understanding what values are, by acknowledging both their descriptive and normative dimensions; accounting for the multiplicity of value holders across space and time; and designing processes through which value conflicts are made explicit and can be legitimately resolved. We outline how ethics can help in determining the relation between what people find valuable and normatively well-grounded values; propose ‘value mapping’ exercises to elicit the values of actors involved in the adaptation process; and stress the potential of deliberative approaches in supporting efforts for more transformative adaptation. These challenges are exemplified through planned relocation, a radical and potentially transformative adaptation response. This paper outlines the distinction between descriptive and normative conceptions of values, a distinction often overlooked in environmental social sciences, and demonstrates its significance for addressing the multiplicity of values and conflicts in transformational adaptation. Rather than prescribing a definitive method for closing the gap between these descriptive and normative conceptions on values, it traces an initial pathway for integrating empirical and ethical perspectives and calls for renewed collaborations across the social sciences and humanities to advance values-based adaptation research and practice.
气候变化正在对个人、社会和生态系统造成广泛和前所未有的影响。越来越多的人提倡转型努力,以克服适应气候变化的限制,但这些努力可能需要做出困难和潜在破坏性的决定,这取决于个人和社会决定追求的目标,从而取决于他们希望优先考虑、重新配置或放弃的价值观,以应对激进的变化。对转型适应的呼吁重振了将价值观置于中心位置的动力,但也为适应研究和实践带来了关键挑战。这一观点概述了认真对待价值观的三个挑战:通过承认其描述性和规范性维度来理解价值观是什么;考虑到跨越空间和时间的价值持有者的多样性;设计流程,使价值冲突变得明确,并能合理地解决。我们概述了伦理如何帮助确定人们认为有价值的价值观与规范上有充分基础的价值观之间的关系;提出“价值映射”练习,以引出参与适应过程的行动者的价值观;并强调审议方法在支持更具变革性的适应努力方面的潜力。这些挑战体现在有计划的搬迁、激进的、可能具有变革性的适应应对措施上。本文概述了描述性和规范性价值观概念之间的区别,这一区别在环境社会科学中经常被忽视,并论证了其对解决转型适应中的价值观多样性和冲突的重要性。它没有规定一种明确的方法来缩小这些描述性和规范性价值观之间的差距,而是追溯了整合经验和伦理观点的初步途径,并呼吁在社会科学和人文科学之间重新开展合作,以推进基于价值观的适应研究和实践。
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引用次数: 0
The shift of heat-related respiratory mortality from 2005 to 2019 in China and its socioeconomic determinants 2005 - 2019年中国热相关呼吸道死亡率的变化及其社会经济决定因素
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100789
Xiaohui Ji , Peng Yin , Haomin Tan , Jiangmei Liu , Zhiying Jiang , Jinlei Qi , Guanhao He , Jianxiong Hu , Fengrui Jing , Ziqiang Lin , Tao Liu , Wenjun Ma , Maigeng Zhou
While extensive research has examined acute mortality risks associated with heat exposure, emerging evidence indicates a paradoxical decline in heat-attributable mortality across developed nations. Yet critical knowledge gaps persist regarding this epidemiological transition in China. Our study collected daily respiratory mortality data from 2,219 districts/counties in 31 provinces, China during 2005–2019. We investigated the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) experienced an increment of 0.124℃ per year from 2005 to 2019 (P = 0.038), while the excess risk (ER) associated with extreme heat declined from 9.46% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 4.81–14.32%) in 2005–2007 to 3.51% (95% CI: 2.12–4.92%) in 2017–2019, representing a 62.88% (95% CI: 55.31–69.99%) reduction. Similarly, the attributable fraction (AF) also decreased from 1.26% (95% CI: 0.57–1.92%) to 0.38% (95% CI: 0.21–0.55%), marking a 69.84% (95% CI: 48.91–89.24%) decrease. Stratified analyses revealed the mortality burdens decreases were more pronounced among males, individuals 0–64 years, southern China, and patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Urbanization rate, the prevalence of air conditioning, and green space were top three socioeconomic factors driving this temporal shift. Our analysis reveals an attenuation of heat-associated respiratory mortality between 2005–2019, concurrent with rising MMT exhibiting pronounced population and spatial disparities. It underscores the critical role of adaptive capacity in mitigating climate change-related health burdens, informing targeted public health strategies.
虽然广泛的研究已经检查了与热暴露相关的急性死亡风险,但新出现的证据表明,发达国家因热导致的死亡率出现了矛盾的下降。然而,关于中国这一流行病学转变的关键知识差距仍然存在。我们的研究收集了2005-2019年中国31个省2219个区/县的每日呼吸道死亡率数据。从2005年到2019年,最低死亡温度(MMT)每年增加0.124℃(P = 0.038),而与极端高温相关的超额风险(ER)从2005 - 2007年的9.46%(95%置信区间(CI): 4.81 ~ 14.32%)下降到2017-2019年的3.51% (95% CI: 2.12 ~ 4.92%),减少了62.88% (95% CI: 55.31 ~ 69.99%)。同样,归因分数(AF)也从1.26% (95% CI: 0.57-1.92%)下降到0.38% (95% CI: 0.21-0.55%),下降了69.84% (95% CI: 48.91-89.24%)。分层分析显示,死亡率负担的下降在男性、0-64岁的个体、中国南方和慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)患者中更为明显。城市化率、空调普及率和绿地是推动这一时间变化的三大社会经济因素。我们的分析显示,2005年至2019年期间,与热相关的呼吸道死亡率有所下降,同时MMT上升,表现出明显的人口和空间差异。它强调了适应能力在减轻与气候变化有关的健康负担、为有针对性的公共卫生战略提供信息方面的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
When it rains, it pours: integration of equity in flood risk management in Boulder County, Colorado 祸不双全:科罗拉多州博尔德县洪水风险管理的整合
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100788
Lauren Stevenson, Elizabeth Reddy, Junko Munakata Marr, Marie Stettler Kleine
Flooding disproportionately impacts underserved and marginalized communities. Institutional means of addressing environmental injustice related to such events remain inadequate in the United States of America. Professionals involved in community engagement and risk management contend with these challenges nonetheless, drawing on their personal ideas about equity rather than formal guidance to do so. This study uses qualitative methods to explore how local, county, and region-level government professionals in Boulder County, Colorado, understand and engage with equity in flood risk management. We sort the approaches to equity that study participants described into three categories, responding to their focus on: access needs, traditionally and present-day overlooked groups, and the duty of a government employee to serve the whole community. While other scholars have productively categorized such ideas and practices in relation to theories of equity, we turn instead to notions of efficacious practice through design frameworks developed in disability studies. Doing so, we offer a model for understanding empirical approaches to equity that professionals may use in the absence of other guidance. . Our results show that disability studies can provide powerful insights for research on flood risk management. Further, they demonstrate the importance of critical engagement with how professionals navigate their work in support of equity in the context of substantial institutional failures.
洪水对服务不足和边缘化社区的影响尤为严重。在美利坚合众国,解决与此类事件有关的环境不公正现象的体制手段仍然不足。尽管如此,参与社区参与和风险管理的专业人士仍在应对这些挑战,他们利用自己对公平的个人想法,而不是正式的指导。本研究使用定性方法探讨科罗拉多州博尔德县的地方、县和区级政府专业人员如何理解和参与洪水风险管理的公平性。我们将研究参与者描述的实现公平的方法分为三类,以回应他们关注的重点:获取需求,传统和现在被忽视的群体,以及政府雇员为整个社区服务的责任。虽然其他学者已经将这些想法和实践与公平理论进行了富有成效的分类,但我们通过残疾研究中开发的设计框架转向有效实践的概念。这样做,我们提供了一个模型来理解实证方法的公平,专业人士可能会在缺乏其他指导的情况下使用。我们的研究结果表明,残疾研究可以为洪水风险管理研究提供强有力的见解。此外,他们还证明了在重大制度失败的背景下,专业人士如何在支持公平的工作中进行批判性参与的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing climate change impacts on military academies: a comparative analysis of the United States Military Academy and the South African Military Academy 评估气候变化对军事学院的影响:美国军事学院和南非军事学院的比较分析
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100784
Mark Read , Hennie Smit , Ivan Henrico , Babalwa Mtshawu , Lesley Welman
Climate change poses growing challenges to military institutions, particularly academies where training, education, and infrastructure are co-located. This study assesses how climate change may affect the United States Military Academy (USMA) at West Point and the South African Military Academy (SAMA) in Saldanha, focusing on implications for training activities, academic programmes, and infrastructure resilience. USMA, located in New York’s Hudson Highlands, is experiencing a warming Humid Continental climate with rising temperatures, stronger tropical cyclones, increased precipitation, and heightened flood risk. SAMA, situated on South Africa’s West Coast, faces a hotter and drier Mediterranean climate, with projected declines in rainfall and sustained water scarcity. Using descriptive climatic data and institutional information, the study compares the climate-related pressures likely to affect each academy over coming decades. The analysis shows that although the academies face distinct climatic trajectories, both will need to adapt training protocols, strengthen infrastructure, and integrate climate resilience into defence education. The findings underscore the importance of coordinated planning and proactive adaptation measures to sustain mission readiness and ensure that future military leaders are adequately prepared for climate-related operational and strategic challenges.
气候变化给军事机构带来了越来越大的挑战,尤其是那些训练、教育和基础设施都在同一地点的院校。本研究评估了气候变化如何影响西点军校的美国军事学院(USMA)和萨尔达尼亚的南非军事学院(SAMA),重点关注对培训活动、学术项目和基础设施恢复能力的影响。USMA位于纽约哈德逊高地,正经历着温暖潮湿的大陆性气候,气温上升,热带气旋更强,降水增加,洪水风险增加。SAMA位于南非西海岸,面临着更热、更干燥的地中海气候,预计降雨量会减少,水资源会持续短缺。利用描述性气候数据和机构信息,该研究比较了未来几十年可能影响每个学院的气候相关压力。分析表明,尽管两所院校面临着不同的气候轨迹,但它们都需要调整培训协议,加强基础设施,并将气候适应能力纳入国防教育。研究结果强调了协调规划和主动适应措施的重要性,以维持任务准备,并确保未来的军事领导人为气候相关的业务和战略挑战做好充分准备。
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引用次数: 0
Heat-health risk knowledge, perceptions, adaptation, and challenges in Mozambique: insights from community members and health professionals 莫桑比克的热健康风险知识、认知、适应和挑战:来自社区成员和卫生专业人员的见解
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100786
Carolina Pereira Marghidan , Osvaldo Inlamea , Granelio Tamele , Paulo Notiço , Pedro Inguana , Américo José , Eduardo Samo Gudo , Erin Coughlan de Perez , Justine Blanford , Maarten van Aalst , Tatiana Marrufo
Intro: Extreme heat is increasing across Mozambique, yet evidence on how heat is perceived, experienced, and how it impacts communities and key sectors remains limited. Methods: This exploratory study examines heat-health risk knowledge and perceptions, occupational and healthcare challenges, and adaptation strategies in Maputo City and Matola Municipality, the country’s largest urban area. Using a purposive sampling approach, we conducted 95 structured surveys between January and April 2023 (56 community members (C); 39 health professionals (H)), combining closed- and open-ended questions. These perspectives offer insight into local heat risks from key actors positioned to recognize and respond to heat risks, providing essential initial evidence to inform heat preparedness and policy in Mozambique. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, non-parametric group comparison tests and ordinal logistic regression, and inductive thematic analysis for open-ended responses. Results: Nearly all participants (98%) perceived that extreme heat had increased in recent years and viewed it as a severe public health threat, with most rating the risk at the maximum level (10/10). Most respondents perceived themselves as “very much” vulnerable to heat (C: 55%, H: 39%), primarily due to health impacts and inadequate housing and work conditions contributing to high exposure. Heat was reported to affect healthcare delivery through increased patient load, equipment failures, and difficulties in storing medicines, as well as reducing labour productivity due to physical and mental fatigue. Although 94% reported receiving heat warnings, participants emphasized that warnings do not consistently reach vulnerable groups and called for more community-based dissemination. Conclusion: Extreme heat is already affecting daily life and healthcare services in urban Mozambique. Building resilience will require low-cost, equitable adaptation measures, strengthened health system preparedness, and coordinated institutional responses as heatwaves intensify. In data-scarce settings, frontline community and health-system perspectives are particularly valuable to understand local heat-health risks.
简介:莫桑比克各地的极端高温正在增加,但关于如何感知、体验高温及其对社区和关键部门的影响的证据仍然有限。方法:本探索性研究考察了马普托市和马托拉市(该国最大的城市地区)的热健康风险知识和观念、职业和医疗保健挑战以及适应策略。采用有目的的抽样方法,我们在2023年1月至4月期间进行了95次结构化调查(56名社区成员(C);39名卫生专业人员(H)),结合了封闭式和开放式问题。这些观点为识别和应对高温风险的关键行为者提供了对当地高温风险的洞察,为莫桑比克的高温防范和政策提供了重要的初步证据。数据分析采用描述性统计、非参数组比较检验和有序逻辑回归,以及开放式回答的归纳专题分析。结果:几乎所有参与者(98%)都认为近年来极端高温有所增加,并将其视为严重的公共卫生威胁,大多数人将风险评为最高水平(10/10)。大多数答复者认为自己“非常”容易受热影响(C: 55%, H: 39%),主要原因是健康影响以及住房和工作条件不足导致高暴露。据报告,高温会增加病人负荷、设备故障、药品储存困难,以及由于身心疲劳而降低劳动生产率,从而影响医疗保健服务的提供。尽管94%的人报告收到了高温警报,但与会者强调,警报并没有始终到达弱势群体,并呼吁更多地以社区为基础进行传播。结论:极端高温已经影响到莫桑比克城市的日常生活和卫生保健服务。建设抗灾能力需要采取低成本、公平的适应措施,加强卫生系统的准备工作,并在热浪加剧时协调机构应对措施。在数据匮乏的情况下,一线社区和卫生系统的观点对于了解当地的热健康风险特别有价值。
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引用次数: 0
Climate risk adaptation through disaster insurance: Understanding purchase behavior of farmers threatened by flash floods in rural China 基于灾害保险的气候风险适应:了解中国农村受山洪威胁农民的购买行为
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100787
Feiting Gao, Li Peng, Damin Zhou, Shuai Liang
Climate-related disasters such as flash floods pose severe threats to rural communities, making effective adaptation strategies essential for reducing risks and strengthening resilience. Disaster insurance, as an important climate policy instrument, can mitigate economic losses. However, a gap remains between their willingness to buy and actual purchase of disaster insurance. In this study, a research framework integrating partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), probit regression, and mediation analysis was employed to explore the factors influencing farmers’ disaster insurance purchase behavior (DIPB) in the Longmen Mountain region of southwest China, which is under frequent threat of climate-induced hazards. A household survey of 536 farmers was conducted, and the probit regression analysis revealed that their DIPB was strongly linked to their willingness to purchase insurance as well as their insurance awareness. Other factors that influenced their purchase behavior included their age, health status, education level, and labor out-migration. The PLS-SEM results indicated that farmers’ disaster preparedness expectations (DPE) were shaped by village capacity building, trust in government, and risk perception. In addition, participation in community-based disaster management (PCDM) was found to play a mediating role between expectations and behavior. These findings highlight the need for climate policy frameworks that integrate individual decision-making, community-based adaptation, and institutional trust to promote disaster insurance uptake. Policy recommendations are offered for expanding insurance coverage, enhancing rural resilience, and embedding disaster risk transfer into broader climate adaptation strategies.
山洪等与气候有关的灾害对农村社区构成严重威胁,因此制定有效的适应战略对于降低风险和增强抵御能力至关重要。灾害保险作为一项重要的气候政策工具,可以减轻经济损失。然而,他们购买灾难保险的意愿和实际购买之间仍然存在差距。本文采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型(PLS-SEM)、probit回归和中介分析相结合的研究框架,探讨了气候灾害频发的龙门山区农民灾害保险购买行为的影响因素。通过对536名农户的入户调查,probit回归分析显示,农户的DIPB与农户购买保险的意愿和保险意识有密切关系。影响其购买行为的其他因素包括年龄、健康状况、受教育程度和外迁。PLS-SEM结果显示,农户备灾预期受村庄能力建设、政府信任和风险认知的影响。此外,参与社区灾害管理(PCDM)在期望和行为之间起中介作用。这些发现突出表明,需要建立气候政策框架,将个人决策、社区适应和机构信任结合起来,以促进灾害保险的吸收。报告提出了扩大保险覆盖面、增强农村抵御能力以及将灾害风险转移纳入更广泛的气候适应战略的政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Adaptation-stories for imagining futures adjusting to a changing climate 适应——想象未来适应气候变化的故事
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100785
Nina Pirttioja , Päivi Abernethy , Sami Ahonen , Stefan Fronzek , Tiina Jouppila , Kirsti Jylhä , Niina Kautto , Sanna Luhtala , Taru Palosuo , Karoliina Rimhanen , Reija Ruuhela , Kirsti Saarremaa , Timothy R. Carter
Effective adaptation planning requires the integration of diverse forms of knowledge ‒ from local experiences to scientific understanding of projections of climate and societal change and their potential impacts on livelihoods and natural systems. However, the volume, complexity and uncertainty of information can hinder stakeholders from taking decisive action. In this study we present a bottom-up approach for developing adaptation-stories that combine quantitative estimates with qualitative knowledge and experience for portraying past or “imagining” future climate change impacts and adaptation responses. The approach is based on a participatory process comprising five steps: (1) co-definition of a notable climate change impact affecting a chosen livelihood or other specific context; (2) identification of the specific types of climatic and non-climatic factors responsible for the given notable climate change impact; (3) co-evaluation of adaptation measures for ameliorating or exploiting impacts, (4) characterisation of the causal mechanisms and assumptions that specify how the notable impacts and their adaptation have been experienced in the past and how they may develop in the future; and; (5) co-development of adaptation-stories by researchers and stakeholders. We suggest that well-crafted adaptation-stories may empower local actors by exploring climate change adaptation through the lens of their unique experiences and livelihoods. They can also serve as conversation starters between diverse actors and generally spark thinking about adaptation solutions. We illustrate this through a case relating to the planning of a major renewal of a hospital in Finland, reflecting how different actors have adapted to heat-related challenges.
有效的适应规划需要整合各种形式的知识——从地方经验到对气候和社会变化预测及其对生计和自然系统的潜在影响的科学理解。然而,信息的数量、复杂性和不确定性会阻碍利益相关者采取果断行动。在这项研究中,我们提出了一种自下而上的方法来开发适应故事,将定量估计与定性知识和经验相结合,以描绘过去或“想象”未来的气候变化影响和适应反应。该方法基于参与性过程,包括五个步骤:(1)共同定义影响选定生计或其他特定环境的显著气候变化影响;(2)确定造成某一显著气候变化影响的气候因子和非气候因子的具体类型;(3)共同评估改善或利用影响的适应措施;(4)描述因果机制和假设的特征,这些机制和假设说明了过去如何经历显著影响及其适应,以及它们在未来如何发展;和;(5)研究人员和利益相关者共同开发适应故事。我们建议,精心设计的适应故事可以通过当地行动者独特的经历和生计来探索气候变化适应,从而赋予他们权力。它们还可以作为不同行为者之间对话的启动者,并通常激发对适应解决方案的思考。我们通过芬兰一家医院重大更新规划的案例来说明这一点,反映了不同的参与者如何适应与热相关的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating uncertainty: an assessment of climate change risks to the marine and coastal environment of Sri Lanka 导航不确定性:气候变化对斯里兰卡海洋和沿海环境的风险评估
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100782
Susana Lincoln , Piyali Chowdhury , Olivia L. Harrod , Sevvandi Jayakody , Karen Vanstaen , Meththika S. Vithanage , John K. Pinnegar
Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to the impacts of marine climate change due to the low coastal profile, which is densely populated with many rural areas dedicated to fishing and aquaculture. Motivated by this, this study aimed to compile and analyse the available evidence and identify steps to improve climate adaptation by undertaking an assessment of marine climate change risks for Sri Lanka. The stepwise approach consisted of a comprehensive literature review and synthesis of risks, followed by appraisal, validation and scoring by expert stakeholders. Here we present a summary of key findings regarding marine climate variables (temperature, sea-level rise, ocean circulation, salinity, ocean acidification, dissolved oxygen, storminess, precipitation and wind), and risks to marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. The most important biodiversity risks identified include decreasing plankton productivity; threats to sea turtles; changes in fish communities; increasing threats to coral reefs; changes to mangrove and seagrass habitats; shoreline erosion; and increasing risk of bio-invasions. Key risks to ecosystem services include declining fisheries; damage and disruption to critical infrastructure and services; threats to tourism; and loss of protective coastal habitats. We also identified important knowledge gaps and uncertainties involving lack of climate data and evidence of impacts. Finally, we provide recommendations regarding marine monitoring and research, and options to strengthen climate policies and climate adaptation in Sri Lanka.
由于沿海地势低,斯里兰卡人口密集,许多农村地区从事渔业和水产养殖,因此极易受到海洋气候变化的影响。受此推动,本研究旨在汇编和分析现有证据,并通过对斯里兰卡的海洋气候变化风险进行评估,确定改善气候适应的步骤。阶梯式方法包括全面的文献综述和风险综合,然后由专家利益相关者进行评估、验证和评分。在这里,我们总结了关于海洋气候变量(温度、海平面上升、海洋环流、盐度、海洋酸化、溶解氧、风暴、降水和风)以及海洋生物多样性和生态系统服务风险的主要发现。确定的最重要的生物多样性风险包括浮游生物生产力下降;对海龟的威胁;鱼类群落的变化;对珊瑚礁的威胁日益增加;红树林和海草生境的变化;海岸线侵蚀;生物入侵的风险也在增加。生态系统服务面临的主要风险包括渔业减少;对关键基础设施和服务的破坏和中断;对旅游业的威胁;海岸保护栖息地的丧失。我们还发现了重要的知识缺口和不确定性,包括缺乏气候数据和影响证据。最后,我们提供了有关海洋监测和研究的建议,以及加强斯里兰卡气候政策和气候适应的选择。
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引用次数: 0
High-resolution spatiotemporal analysis and driver attribution of floods in Kazakhstan using SHAP and remote sensing integration 基于SHAP和遥感整合的哈萨克斯坦洪灾高分辨率时空分析及驱动因素归因
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100783
Yixuan Liu , Alim Samat , Peijun Du , Jin Chen , Jilili Abuduwaili , Kaiyue Luo , Enzhao Zhu , Dana Shokparova
The escalating impacts of global climate change and extreme weather have intensified flood risks worldwide, including in arid and semi-arid regions traditionally considered low-risk. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of flood events across Kazakhstan from 2000 to 2024 by integrating remote sensing (RS) with machine learning (ML). Using Google Earth Engine (GEE), we address data gaps and cloud interference through spatiotemporal fusion (STARFM), denoising, smoothing, and sample transferring techniques. In addition, this study incorporates the Time-Disaggregated Water Frequency (TWF) method, which enables the identification of water bodies with temporal variability, eliminates permanent water bodies, and distinguishes flood from non-flood conditions in seasonal water bodies, thereby enhancing the accuracy of flood reconstruction and enabling precise delineation of flood inundation areas. Landsat and MODIS imagery are combined to produce high-resolution flood distribution maps, while spectral similarity indicators guide the transfer of samples from the Global Flood Database. A range of spectral, texture, environmental, and socioeconomic features is extracted, with flood classification performed using random forest (RF) and attribution analysis conducted via XGBoost and SHAP. Results highlight a high flood risk in northern, southwestern, and western Kazakhstan, primarily driven by changes in precipitation (PRE), temperature (TEM), soil moisture (SM), and land use. Floods occur most frequently in spring — especially in March and April — due to snowmelt and extreme precipitation. The ML models achieve over 80 % classification accuracy, demonstrating their reliability. This work improves flood monitoring and provides essential insights for climate adaptation and targeted flood risk management in Kazakhstan.
全球气候变化和极端天气的影响不断升级,加剧了世界范围内的洪水风险,包括在传统上被视为低风险的干旱和半干旱地区。本研究通过将遥感(RS)与机器学习(ML)相结合,研究了2000年至2024年哈萨克斯坦洪水事件的时空动态。利用谷歌地球引擎(GEE),我们通过时空融合(STARFM)、去噪、平滑和样本转移技术来解决数据缺口和云干扰。此外,本研究还结合了时间分解水频率(TWF)方法,可以识别具有时间变化的水体,消除永久性水体,并区分季节性水体的洪水与非洪水情况,从而提高洪水重建的准确性,实现洪水淹没区域的精确划定。Landsat和MODIS图像相结合可以生成高分辨率的洪水分布图,而光谱相似度指标则指导从全球洪水数据库传输样本。提取一系列光谱、纹理、环境和社会经济特征,使用随机森林(RF)进行洪水分类,并通过XGBoost和SHAP进行归因分析。结果表明,哈萨克斯坦北部、西南部和西部的洪水风险较高,主要受降水(PRE)、温度(TEM)、土壤湿度(SM)和土地利用变化的驱动。由于融雪和极端降水,洪水最常发生在春季,尤其是3月和4月。机器学习模型的分类准确率达到80%以上,证明了其可靠性。这项工作改善了洪水监测,并为哈萨克斯坦的气候适应和有针对性的洪水风险管理提供了重要见解。
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Climate Risk Management
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