Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania","authors":"Jacob Emanuel Joseph ,&nbsp;K.P.C Rao ,&nbsp;Elirehema Swai ,&nbsp;Anthony M. Whitbread ,&nbsp;Reimund P. Rötter","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding growing period conditions is crucial for effective climate risk management strategies. Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) are key in predicting these conditions and guiding risk management in agriculture. However, low SCF adoption rates among smallholder farmers are due to factors like uncertainty and lack of understanding. In this study, we evaluated the benefits of SCF in predicting growing season conditions, and crop performance, and developing climate risk management strategies in Kongwa district, Tanzania. We used sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) from the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions to predict seasonal rainfall onset dates using the k-nearest neighbor model. Contrary to traditional approaches, the study established the use of rainfall onset dates as the criterion for predicting and describing growing period conditions. We then evaluated forecast skills and the profitability of using SCF in crop management with the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) coupled with a simple bio-economic model. Our findings show that SSTa significantly influences rainfall variability and accurately predicts rainfall onset dates. Onset dates proved more effective than traditional methods in depicting key growing period characteristics, including rainfall variability and distribution. Including SCF in climate risk management proved beneficial for maize and sorghum production both agronomically and economically. Not using SCF posed a higher risk to crop production, with an 80% probability of yield losses, especially in late-onset seasons. We conclude that while SCF has potential benefits, improvements are needed in its generation and dissemination. Enhancing the network of extension agents could facilitate better understanding and adoption by smallholder farmers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100686"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of climate change on household dietary diversity in Afghanistan","authors":"Jamshid Yolchi,&nbsp;Huaiyu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100687","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100687","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change adaptation policies and research have traditionally focused on dietary quantity, neglecting dietary quality, particularly in developing countries like Afghanistan. This study aims to identify how climate change affects household dietary diversity and whether the impacts are consistent across different food groups. To examine the impact of climate change on dietary diversity in Afghanistan, a climate change proxy variable (temperature) was created at the district level by calculating the difference from its long-term mean. Meanwhile, the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) was obtained from three rounds of household survey data conducted between 2011 and 2017, which included information from 60,099 households. Negative binomial regression analysis reveals a positive association between climate change and HDDS. That is, higher temperatures would lead to the higher availability of diverse diets in Afghanistan. Interestingly, climate change appears to affect food groups heterogeneously. While staple food consumption frequency remains unaffected, non-staple food consumption increases with higher temperatures. The results remain consistent after incorporating precipitation and two lagged versions of temperature and precipitation into the model. Therefore, the climate adaptation policies of the government of Afghanistan should consider different policy implications for staple and non-staple foods. These findings have policy implications for achieving food security and climate change-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as SDG 2 (zero hunger) and SDG 13 (climate action).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100687"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of gender in firm-level climate change adaptation behaviour: Insights from small businesses in Senegal and Kenya","authors":"Kate Elizabeth Gannon ,&nbsp;Shaikh M.S.U. Eskander ,&nbsp;Antonio Avila-Uribe ,&nbsp;Elena Castellano ,&nbsp;Mamadou Diop ,&nbsp;Dorice Agol","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100699","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100699","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Literature on gender and climate change adaptation tends to propose that women are both especially vulnerable to climate change and especially valuable to climate change adaptation, but these ideas have been little considered in the context of adaptation within small businesses and have rarely been tested through quantitative empirical analysis. This paper responds to this gap within existing literature and explores how female representation in the ownership or management structures of micro and small businesses shapes firm-level adaptive capacity, as implied through adaptation behaviour. Using firm-level survey data from semi-arid regions of Senegal and Kenya, we employ a Poisson regression model to empirically investigate how female representation in ownership and management of micro and small businesses affects adoption of firm-level sustainable and unsustainable adaptation strategies, with increasing exposure to extreme weather events. Our results show that businesses with female leadership that faced a larger number of extreme events adopt more sustainable and fewer unsustainable strategies than those with only male leadership. We interpret this result recognising that unsustainable adaptation strategies, such as selling business assets, require a business to have access to business assets and resources and thus are an outcome of a business’ coping capacity. Consistent with literature, we then identify that adaptation assistance can mitigate some of the harmful effects of climate shocks and additionally support micro and small businesses with female leadership to adopt more adaptation strategies (both sustainable and unsustainable) – and to a greater extent than businesses with only male leadership. Results evidence the value and efficiency of developing an inclusive business enabling environment for adaptation that targets women entrepreneurs, not just for delivering on equitable climate justice agendas, but also for strategic upscaling of resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100699"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increased risk for damages from the dry-rot fungus Serpula lacrymans on buildings in a changing climate","authors":"Mikael Martinsson ,&nbsp;Itai Danielski","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100695","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100695","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Weather-based damages in housing insurance correspond to 23 % of all insurance claims in Sweden and include damages from fungi. Some fungi could cause health risks to the tenants, while others can cause rapid structural failure for the building itself, like the dry-rot fungus <em>Serpula lacrymans</em>.</div><div>The study aims to analyse a possible connection between the increased rate of insurance claims related to <em>S. lacrymans</em> fungi and climate change. This study uses historical data of 2446 damaged properties from insurance companies and current and future climate data. In addition, eight geographical areas within Sweden with 567 damaged properties were analysed in relation to changes in outdoor temperature over a decade. Finally, a full onsite inspection of 20 infected properties by <em>S. lacrymans</em> fungi was conducted to evaluate common conditions for fungi infections.</div><div>The results of this study showed that the <em>S. lacrymans</em> fungus is expected to spread to the northern parts of Sweden even in areas where it could not exist before, while the rate of infected buildings in the southern part of Sweden might decline but not drop to zero. Wooden buildings older constructed before 1980 with chimneys and self-ventilation are at higher risk of infection. Economic implications are significant, with high repair costs rendering some buildings economically unviable, particularly in rural areas. Insurance reimbursement is typically limited to market value loss, indicating location, design, and maintenance status as crucial factors. The results may raise a concern for insurance companies and property owners, especially related to locations in the sparse parts of North of Sweden.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100695"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing vulnerability and climate risk to agriculture for developing resilient farming strategies in the Ganges Delta","authors":"Uttam Kumar Mandal ,&nbsp;Fazlul Karim ,&nbsp;Yingying Yu ,&nbsp;Amit Ghosh ,&nbsp;Taslima Zahan ,&nbsp;Sonali Mallick ,&nbsp;Mohammad Kamruzzaman ,&nbsp;Priya Lal Chandra Paul ,&nbsp;Mohammed Mainuddin","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100690","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100690","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Ganges Delta supports a unique coastal ecosystem that is highly susceptible to global climate change. This paper presents results from a study on climate change impacts on coastal agriculture in the deltaic regions of Bangladesh and India. The study examined how risk emerges from the interaction of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Climate hazards for the 89 administrative units (upazila in Bangladesh and block in India) were assessed using future climate data from the IPCC’s 6th assessment report. Hazard levels were assessed by integrating the impacts of four temperature extremes and five rainfall extremes critical to crop growth. Through an extensive literature review, 18 biophysical and socio-economic variables were identified as critical and policy-relevant, including three related to exposure and 15 to vulnerability. All indicators were normalized to a dimensionless scale ranging from 0 to 1 for use in vulnerability and risk assessments. Three upazilas in Bangladesh were classified as being under very high climate hazard. The exposure score was found to be relatively higher along Indian coast compared to Bangladesh coast. Among the 89 administrative units analyzed, five upazilas in Bangladesh and two blocks in India were identified under very high vulnerability index, covering 18.6% the area and 8.13% of the total population. When combining vulnerability and climate hazard, three upazilas in Bangladesh and one block in India were identified under very high risk to agriculture. These findings provide a practical framework for developing sustainable agricultural strategies and addressing climate risks in the Ganges Delta and other similar coastal ecosystems worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100690"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of current and historical climate shocks on crop diversification in Zambia: Insights from household- and district-level observations","authors":"Junren Wang ,&nbsp;Megan Konar ,&nbsp;Patrese Nicole Anderson ,&nbsp;Protensia Hadunka ,&nbsp;Brian Mulenga","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100683","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100683","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Crop diversification is a farming practice for risk management prevalent in smallholder agriculture, offering adaptive benefits against challenges like climate change, price fluctuations, and crop disease. Despite its importance, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the relationship of crop diversification and current and historical climate shock. Our study seeks to bridge this gap through statistical analysis of household- and district-level data in Zambia. Specifically, we use the Pooled Fractional Probit (PFP) estimator to develop regression models for crop diversification, analyzing 6625 households for 3 years and 74 districts for 9 years, using Rural Agriculture Living Survey (RALS) and Crop Forecast Survey (CFS) datasets, respectively. Simpson’s Diversity Index (SDI) of crops serves as the dependent variable and is consistently higher at the district level than at the household level, suggesting that aggregation at larger scales may mask localized monoculture vulnerabilities. Our findings reveal that both current and historical climate shocks significantly influence crop diversification decisions at both the household and district levels in Zambia. Heat stress and rainfall deficits during the planting season promote crop diversification, but their effects vary due to the diverse agroecological conditions and crop characteristics in different areas. Historical climate shocks prompt farmers to diversify as a long-term resilience strategy. This study emphasizes the complex, scale-dependent drivers of crop diversification in response to climate shocks, providing valuable insights for policy development in climate-resilient agricultural strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100683"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What it means to be resilient to heatwaves for vulnerable households in mass tourist destinations?","authors":"Hyerim Yoon,&nbsp;Anna Ribas","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100688","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100688","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite clear evidence of increasing heatwaves in the Mediterranean region, coastal cities in Spain are often reluctant to recognize these events as significant risks, largely due to the economic benefits a warm climate brings to their tourism industry. This reluctance exists despite the fact that many residents in these cities, particularly those working in tourism, face economic hardship due to the precarious nature of the sector. Our research focuses on Lloret de Mar, Catalonia, to examine the impacts of heatwaves in vulnerable households. We analyze the vulnerability and resilience of these households to extreme heat events and heatwaves by studying lived experiences identifying their coping strategies and the barriers they face. To gather data, we conducted 28 interviews and participatory mapping exercises with users of a food distribution center run by Caritas. Participants frequently reported experiences of extreme discomfort at home, describing symptoms such as exhaustion, suffocation, and excessive sweating, exacerbated by high humidity levels. The study found that participants have limited coping mechanisms, relying mainly on natural ventilation and fans. Some are constrained to staying at home due to economic challenges, with no opportunity to use vacation as a respite. The participatory mapping further revealed that these households are regularly exposed to heat during their daily activities. In the absence of effective municipal or collective adaptation strategies, vulnerable households remain entrapped in increasingly unlivable conditions. Our findings underscore the urgent need for localized adaptation plans that address the specific needs of the community, especially given the current municipal policies that are heavily focused on sustaining the tourism industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100688"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stakeholder engagement strategies to build resilience to compound hazards: Engaging community-based organizations in research","authors":"Sarah Clark ,&nbsp;Zack Guido ,&nbsp;Laura T. Cabrera-Rivera ,&nbsp;Pablo Méndez-Lázaro ,&nbsp;Ben McMahan ,&nbsp;Federico Cintrón Moscoso ,&nbsp;Wanda I. Crespo-Acevedo ,&nbsp;Marcel Castro-Sitiriche","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100693","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100693","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate extremes can generate impacts in one sector that cascade or amplify the impacts in others. Developing strategies that build resilience to these compound hazards requires collaboration among diverse stakeholders to understand hazard dynamics and the synergies and tradeoffs in adaptation activities. In many regions, community-based organizations (CBOs) lead in local climate adaptation, and their engagement in research can help inform research agendas and capacity-strengthening activities that support locally led adaptation. In this paper, we describe a co-produced, collaborative research project that convened CBOs working in climate adaptation, public health, and energy resilience in Puerto Rico. The goals were to identify knowledge gaps and opportunities for immediate action. Based on interviews, a participatory workshop, and a survey, we report on the CBO activities, their networks and their views on the relationships between climate, public health, and energy. We also describe their perspectives on priorities to address compound hazards. Drawing on these results, we discuss five strategies that can help research projects collaborate, co-produce, and engage with CBOs. They include understanding the network to inform engagement, paying attention to differential impacts and justice, employing flexible planning to accommodate multiple goals and perspectives, focusing on information sharing to advance collaboration, exploring narratives of change to understand adaptation and maladaptation, and confronting the question of “what next.” This study informs how research can more effectively engage CBOs in climate adaptation studies, which, in turn, can contribute to building plans and systems that are better equipped to build resilience to compound extreme events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100693"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The value of structured expert judgment to help assess climate adaptation","authors":"Alexandre K. Magnan ,&nbsp;Jia Li ,&nbsp;Adèle Tanguy ,&nbsp;Stéphane Hallegatte ,&nbsp;Christophe Buffet","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100692","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100692","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While climate change continues to accelerate and associated risks are expected to become more intense and complex than previously anticipated, climate adaptation policies and projects remain short-sighted and single hazard-focused, limited in scale, limited in addressing the root causes of exposure and vulnerability, and poorly monitored. Understanding whether societies are on track to adapt or on a pathway towards higher risks is essential but raises many methodological challenges. Assessment methods based on quantitative indicators have been prominent up to now, but they show limitations especially relating to the difficulty of identifying statistical data that capture the complex nature of adaptation and are relevant across contexts. This Perspective paper discusses the case of structured expert judgment methods to assess adaptation status based on a wider range of information (quantitative and qualitative, published and non-published, etc.), therefore offering complementary, alternative methods to assess progress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100692"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk Governance of Climate-Related Hazards in Longyearbyen, Svalbard: A Review of Risk Governance Approaches and Knowledge Gaps","authors":"Stig Johannessen ,&nbsp;Holt Hancock ,&nbsp;Siiri Wickström ,&nbsp;Eirik Albrechtsen","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate-related risks pose challenges to communities globally as changing climatic conditions alter the patterns of natural hazards which threaten human lives and infrastructure. In Longyearbyen, Norway, in the High Arctic Svalbard archipelago, climatic changes presently occur at rates well in excess of global means, with corresponding changes to climate-related risks requiring new and improved risk governance strategies. Here, we present the results from a literature review investigating how recent advances in climate-related risk governance can help inform risk governance strategy development in Longyearbyen. The literature identified in our work indicates recent research into the governance of climate-related risks has focused to a large extent on flooding or landslides. Successful risk governance in the reviewed literature often included data collection of both environmental and social information and emphasized local, context-specific knowledge via bi-directional risk communication throughout the risk governance process. We identified knowledge gaps in the literature review. First, there is a missing societal safety perspective on climate changes and natural hazards: much of the identified literature views the climatic changes and natural hazards either through a physical process-based perspective rooted in the natural sciences, or focuses on physical mitigation measures, without considering the interaction of nature, technology, and society. Second, there is a lack of research on data collection and analysis strategies that combine the acquisition of local knowledge via a discourse-based approach with data and knowledge generated from sensors or physical models via a technical approach. Third, more research is required on uncertainty assessment and handling in the risk governance process. Fourth, there is missing consideration of short-term disaster handling approaches – especially in relation to relatively more frequent consideration of long-term climate adaptation strategies. Finally, as none of the reviewed works specifically addressed risk governance in an Arctic setting, we discuss how the results from this literature review and the proposed risk governance framework can help transfer knowledge to Longyearbyen’s context. Our results help clarify current knowledge related to the governance of climate-related risks and provide a foundation for future work in Arctic locations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"43 ","pages":"Article 100585"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000020/pdfft?md5=7455a94b9027d0511bda9fe12c783e97&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000020-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139434399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}