Climate Risk Management最新文献

Preventive measures adopted to protect buildings and infrastructure from extreme weather and natural hazard events may serve to mitigate extensive damage and thus avoid major expenditures to businesses and society. A survey of 1,001 representative companies across different sectors and regions in Norway reveals that most companies fail to prioritise the climate change adaptation of their buildings or infrastructure. Most respondents have not conducted risk assessments. The greatest focus is adopted by large companies, those that own their buildings and infrastructure, and businesses in the primary and energy sectors. Small companies, service sector businesses and companies that rent their buildings and infrastructure are the least well prepared. The largest perceived barrier to adaptation is costs, followed by a lack of knowledge and competence in the fields of climate change impacts and adaptation measures. The large majority state that they do not measure climate change adaptation at all. Less than 10 per cent use indicators or evaluate their climate change adaptation efforts. Survey results suggest that Norwegian businesses need stronger incentives and clearly defined responsibilities, combined with appropriate tools and guidelines relevant to the entire climate change adaptation cycle. These will include the performance of risk assessments, the tracking of their adaptation status, as well as the measurement and evaluation of their climate change adaptation actions with the help of indicators.

Despite the burgeoning literature on adaptive capacity, there is a lack of psychometric approaches for assessing the determinants of adaptive capacity, particularly in food systems in the Global South. The study addressed this knowledge gap by investigating four determinants, previously identified as leverage points, for strengthening adaptive capacity: access to finance, access to and use of information and knowledge, social learning, and gender equality. Drawing on a survey (n = 1,271) of food system actors in Kisumu County, Kenya, we conducted a confirmatory factor analysis, which yielded factors of moderate-high internal validity and reliability. We then used structural equation modelling to examine the causal effect of food system actors’ attitudes and beliefs towards the four leverage points with regards to their perceived adaptive capacity. Two factors, access to finance and social learning, were significant positive predictors of adaptive capacity. A third leverage point factor, gender equality, contributed to the respondents’ perceived adaptive capacity through the mediating factor of assets. The results reveal entry points for strategic adaptation planning and raise complexities related to gender norms and values. We discuss the implications of these findings for adaptive capacity and transformative adaptation theory in food systems in the Global South.

As the relationship between climate change and agricultural production increasingly gains attention, the FAO recommends the adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices (CSAPs) to ensure the stable development of agriculture amidst changing climatic conditions. However, the adoption rate of CSAPs remains low and the effects of livelihood capitals have received little attention. Based on the survey data for 916 farmers in the Jianghan Plain of China, this paper adopts a multivariate Probit model to examine the impact of farmers’ livelihood capitals which are measured by an entropy-TOPSIS approach on their adoption of CSAPs. Our results demonstrate that different livelihood capitals exert various influence on the adoption of CSAPs. Specifically, human, financial, physical, and social capital have positive relationships with pesticide-oriented CSAPs such as integrated pest management (IPM). Natural capital has a positive relationship with seed- and water- oriented CSAPs like tolerant rice varieties (TRV). Natural capital positively relates to soil-oriented CPSPs including rice straw mulching (RSM) while physical capital has a negative effect. Natural and physical capitals have positive relationships with fertilizer-oriented CSAPs like deep placement of fertilizer (DPF). Social and natural capitals have positive relationships with soil-oriented CSAPs such as no-tillage direct seeding (NTDS) while financial capital has a negative effect. Climate factors are also important in the adoption of CSAPs such as TRV and RSM. Finally, policy recommendations are suggested to enhance household livelihood capitals to promote the adoption of each type of CSAP.

To reduce the escalating maintenance costs for the Norwegian building stock, adapting new building designs to future climate changes becomes necessary. Currently, climate adaptation of moisture safety design by considering future climate loads is not mandatory in the Norwegian building code. This forces building designers to choose between adhering to existing standards and guidelines or investing additional efforts in adapting the building design to future climate change, at higher initial costs and with uncertain long-term benefits. This study aims to analyze the perceptions of Norwegian building physicists of future climate risks and their capacity to influence adaptation efforts in new construction projects. A thematic analysis of 15 semi-structured interviews with Norwegian building physicists from multiple companies and different regions of Norway is presented. The respondents recognize the need to adapt building designs to account for future climate loads more effectively; however, they lack the requisite influence and tools to implement the same. They look to authorities to establish requirements, and research institutes to develop tools that enable them to effectively fulfil their roles. Significant barriers for climate adaptation in building projects include lack of support from other project stakeholders, unavailability of efficient tools based on qualitative risk assessment for addressing climate adaptation, and insufficient focus on climate adaptation in building codes and guidelines. Development of methods for implementing climate adaptation in moisture safety design must reflect this, and quick-to-use robusteness assessment frameworks that treats these uncertainties in a non-quantitative manner are needed.

Organisations, in the private, public and third sectors, are critical stakeholders and actors in the governance of climate change adaptation. Understanding organisational perceptions of preparedness, risk and response to climate change is important for effective climate adaptation-focused actions and policy design. Our study focuses on two research questions: what factors influence adaptation actions by organisations?, and what do organisations mean by the term ‘adaptation’? To address these, we developed and analysed a national survey of UK-based organisations’ perceptions of adapting to a changing climate, administered in spring 2021 (n = 2,429). Our findings confirm that awareness matters: respondents who reported that their organisation had high levels of concern about climate change risk or threat, and which had greater integration of adaptation within processes, are more likely to take adaptation action. In addition, we find a positive relationship between the occurrence and type of extreme event experienced and increased adaptation action by organisations. However, when asked about specific adaptation measures taken by organisations, examples of mitigation are more frequently mentioned compared to adaptation-type actions. Whether this may signal confusion or conflation of adaptation and mitigation by organisations requires further study. These findings offer critical insights into the perceptions of organisations as pivotal leaders of enacting responses to climate change. A renewed focus on organisational experiences, awareness, attitudes and capacity regarding adaptation can assist in better understanding how organisations can facilitate improved climate-resilient decision-making.

Changing climate poses significant challenges for smallholder rice farmers. Weather-related deviations from longer-term patterns and crop losses due to abiotic hazards can affect farmer risk preferences and drive adaptive responses. In addition, farmers’ proneness to and past experiences with crop risks such as drought, submergence, and excess soil salinity can impact their baseline risk preferences and their response to changing risks. Using data for Bangladesh from two waves of the Rice Monitoring Survey, climate-related data (precipitation and temperature), farmer reports of crop losses, and measures of proneness to abiotic risks, this article estimates how weather deviations from longer-term trends, crop losses, and proneness to crop risks (submergence, drought, and soil salinity) affect elicited risk preferences over time. This research finds evidence in favor of the hypothesis that larger absolute seasonal deviations from past patterns of seasonal mean daily minimum temperature and seasonal total precipitation yield increased risk aversion. In addition, the research provides mixed evidence with respect to risk proneness and farmers’ change in risk preferences over time. Contrary to our original hypothesis, individuals with land more prone to soil salinity become more risk averse rather than less, but, consistent with our hypothesis, those with land more prone to crop submergence become more risk preferring over time. Because of differences in crop experiences and degrees of proneness to risk, risk preferences for farmers in different regions are predicted to evolve along different pathways. This article contributes to the literature on risk preference formation by considering the possibility that less significant deviations than shocks might also contribute to evolving risk preferences. In addition, the article emphasizes the regional heterogeneity of changing preferences. An ancillary finding of this work suggests that risk preferences are only weakly related over time, contrary to other findings in the literature on the stability of risk preferences. Of policy relevance, the differential experiences in weather variability at the regional and local levels yield important differences in changes in preferences and should give rise to careful, regional-level policies to support adaptation to changing weather.

This study investigates the experiences of violence women faced during and after climate-induced migration in Pakistan, focusing on the context of floods. Through in-depth interviews, the study explores the specific forms of violence experienced by women, the underlying factors contributing to their vulnerability, their coping strategies employed in flood-affected areas, and the disaster management abilities of women in Pakistan. The findings of the study indicate that the economic hardships and poverty, displacement and gender disparities, overcrowded living conditions in relief camps, breakdown of law and order during disasters, and limited access to healthcare services stand out as noticeable reasons for gender-based violence. Key informants reported an increase in domestic violence incidence. However, women’s role as caretakers, their ability to livelihood diversification, and their knowledge of local conditions were among the dominant coping measures in the study area. Therefore, the study suggests implementing gender-sensitive disaster management strategies that prioritize women’s safety, access to resources, strengthening legal protections against gender-based violence, and promoting women’s leadership in disaster preparedness and response efforts.

How high should we build a dyke today, knowing that it will serve for more than 50 years? This depends on the probability distribution of future temperatures. We review the literature on estimates of future emissions for current/stated policy scenarios and current pledge scenarios. Reviewing expert elicitations, abatement costs of scenarios, learning rates of technologies, fossil fuel supply side dynamics and geoengineering, we argue that scenarios with emissions largely beyond current/stated policy scenarios and largely below current pledge scenarios are relatively unlikely. Based on this, we develop a literature-informed evaluation of the likelihoods of future temperature for use in Value at Risk stress tests in 2030, 2050 and 2100.