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Adaptation-stories for imagining futures adjusting to a changing climate 适应——想象未来适应气候变化的故事
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100785
Nina Pirttioja , Päivi Abernethy , Sami Ahonen , Stefan Fronzek , Tiina Jouppila , Kirsti Jylhä , Niina Kautto , Sanna Luhtala , Taru Palosuo , Karoliina Rimhanen , Reija Ruuhela , Kirsti Saarremaa , Timothy R. Carter
Effective adaptation planning requires the integration of diverse forms of knowledge ‒ from local experiences to scientific understanding of projections of climate and societal change and their potential impacts on livelihoods and natural systems. However, the volume, complexity and uncertainty of information can hinder stakeholders from taking decisive action. In this study we present a bottom-up approach for developing adaptation-stories that combine quantitative estimates with qualitative knowledge and experience for portraying past or “imagining” future climate change impacts and adaptation responses. The approach is based on a participatory process comprising five steps: (1) co-definition of a notable climate change impact affecting a chosen livelihood or other specific context; (2) identification of the specific types of climatic and non-climatic factors responsible for the given notable climate change impact; (3) co-evaluation of adaptation measures for ameliorating or exploiting impacts, (4) characterisation of the causal mechanisms and assumptions that specify how the notable impacts and their adaptation have been experienced in the past and how they may develop in the future; and; (5) co-development of adaptation-stories by researchers and stakeholders. We suggest that well-crafted adaptation-stories may empower local actors by exploring climate change adaptation through the lens of their unique experiences and livelihoods. They can also serve as conversation starters between diverse actors and generally spark thinking about adaptation solutions. We illustrate this through a case relating to the planning of a major renewal of a hospital in Finland, reflecting how different actors have adapted to heat-related challenges.
有效的适应规划需要整合各种形式的知识——从地方经验到对气候和社会变化预测及其对生计和自然系统的潜在影响的科学理解。然而,信息的数量、复杂性和不确定性会阻碍利益相关者采取果断行动。在这项研究中,我们提出了一种自下而上的方法来开发适应故事,将定量估计与定性知识和经验相结合,以描绘过去或“想象”未来的气候变化影响和适应反应。该方法基于参与性过程,包括五个步骤:(1)共同定义影响选定生计或其他特定环境的显著气候变化影响;(2)确定造成某一显著气候变化影响的气候因子和非气候因子的具体类型;(3)共同评估改善或利用影响的适应措施;(4)描述因果机制和假设的特征,这些机制和假设说明了过去如何经历显著影响及其适应,以及它们在未来如何发展;和;(5)研究人员和利益相关者共同开发适应故事。我们建议,精心设计的适应故事可以通过当地行动者独特的经历和生计来探索气候变化适应,从而赋予他们权力。它们还可以作为不同行为者之间对话的启动者,并通常激发对适应解决方案的思考。我们通过芬兰一家医院重大更新规划的案例来说明这一点,反映了不同的参与者如何适应与热相关的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating uncertainty: an assessment of climate change risks to the marine and coastal environment of Sri Lanka 导航不确定性:气候变化对斯里兰卡海洋和沿海环境的风险评估
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100782
Susana Lincoln , Piyali Chowdhury , Olivia L. Harrod , Sevvandi Jayakody , Karen Vanstaen , Meththika S. Vithanage , John K. Pinnegar
Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to the impacts of marine climate change due to the low coastal profile, which is densely populated with many rural areas dedicated to fishing and aquaculture. Motivated by this, this study aimed to compile and analyse the available evidence and identify steps to improve climate adaptation by undertaking an assessment of marine climate change risks for Sri Lanka. The stepwise approach consisted of a comprehensive literature review and synthesis of risks, followed by appraisal, validation and scoring by expert stakeholders. Here we present a summary of key findings regarding marine climate variables (temperature, sea-level rise, ocean circulation, salinity, ocean acidification, dissolved oxygen, storminess, precipitation and wind), and risks to marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. The most important biodiversity risks identified include decreasing plankton productivity; threats to sea turtles; changes in fish communities; increasing threats to coral reefs; changes to mangrove and seagrass habitats; shoreline erosion; and increasing risk of bio-invasions. Key risks to ecosystem services include declining fisheries; damage and disruption to critical infrastructure and services; threats to tourism; and loss of protective coastal habitats. We also identified important knowledge gaps and uncertainties involving lack of climate data and evidence of impacts. Finally, we provide recommendations regarding marine monitoring and research, and options to strengthen climate policies and climate adaptation in Sri Lanka.
由于沿海地势低,斯里兰卡人口密集,许多农村地区从事渔业和水产养殖,因此极易受到海洋气候变化的影响。受此推动,本研究旨在汇编和分析现有证据,并通过对斯里兰卡的海洋气候变化风险进行评估,确定改善气候适应的步骤。阶梯式方法包括全面的文献综述和风险综合,然后由专家利益相关者进行评估、验证和评分。在这里,我们总结了关于海洋气候变量(温度、海平面上升、海洋环流、盐度、海洋酸化、溶解氧、风暴、降水和风)以及海洋生物多样性和生态系统服务风险的主要发现。确定的最重要的生物多样性风险包括浮游生物生产力下降;对海龟的威胁;鱼类群落的变化;对珊瑚礁的威胁日益增加;红树林和海草生境的变化;海岸线侵蚀;生物入侵的风险也在增加。生态系统服务面临的主要风险包括渔业减少;对关键基础设施和服务的破坏和中断;对旅游业的威胁;海岸保护栖息地的丧失。我们还发现了重要的知识缺口和不确定性,包括缺乏气候数据和影响证据。最后,我们提供了有关海洋监测和研究的建议,以及加强斯里兰卡气候政策和气候适应的选择。
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引用次数: 0
High-resolution spatiotemporal analysis and driver attribution of floods in Kazakhstan using SHAP and remote sensing integration 基于SHAP和遥感整合的哈萨克斯坦洪灾高分辨率时空分析及驱动因素归因
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100783
Yixuan Liu , Alim Samat , Peijun Du , Jin Chen , Jilili Abuduwaili , Kaiyue Luo , Enzhao Zhu , Dana Shokparova
The escalating impacts of global climate change and extreme weather have intensified flood risks worldwide, including in arid and semi-arid regions traditionally considered low-risk. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of flood events across Kazakhstan from 2000 to 2024 by integrating remote sensing (RS) with machine learning (ML). Using Google Earth Engine (GEE), we address data gaps and cloud interference through spatiotemporal fusion (STARFM), denoising, smoothing, and sample transferring techniques. In addition, this study incorporates the Time-Disaggregated Water Frequency (TWF) method, which enables the identification of water bodies with temporal variability, eliminates permanent water bodies, and distinguishes flood from non-flood conditions in seasonal water bodies, thereby enhancing the accuracy of flood reconstruction and enabling precise delineation of flood inundation areas. Landsat and MODIS imagery are combined to produce high-resolution flood distribution maps, while spectral similarity indicators guide the transfer of samples from the Global Flood Database. A range of spectral, texture, environmental, and socioeconomic features is extracted, with flood classification performed using random forest (RF) and attribution analysis conducted via XGBoost and SHAP. Results highlight a high flood risk in northern, southwestern, and western Kazakhstan, primarily driven by changes in precipitation (PRE), temperature (TEM), soil moisture (SM), and land use. Floods occur most frequently in spring — especially in March and April — due to snowmelt and extreme precipitation. The ML models achieve over 80 % classification accuracy, demonstrating their reliability. This work improves flood monitoring and provides essential insights for climate adaptation and targeted flood risk management in Kazakhstan.
全球气候变化和极端天气的影响不断升级,加剧了世界范围内的洪水风险,包括在传统上被视为低风险的干旱和半干旱地区。本研究通过将遥感(RS)与机器学习(ML)相结合,研究了2000年至2024年哈萨克斯坦洪水事件的时空动态。利用谷歌地球引擎(GEE),我们通过时空融合(STARFM)、去噪、平滑和样本转移技术来解决数据缺口和云干扰。此外,本研究还结合了时间分解水频率(TWF)方法,可以识别具有时间变化的水体,消除永久性水体,并区分季节性水体的洪水与非洪水情况,从而提高洪水重建的准确性,实现洪水淹没区域的精确划定。Landsat和MODIS图像相结合可以生成高分辨率的洪水分布图,而光谱相似度指标则指导从全球洪水数据库传输样本。提取一系列光谱、纹理、环境和社会经济特征,使用随机森林(RF)进行洪水分类,并通过XGBoost和SHAP进行归因分析。结果表明,哈萨克斯坦北部、西南部和西部的洪水风险较高,主要受降水(PRE)、温度(TEM)、土壤湿度(SM)和土地利用变化的驱动。由于融雪和极端降水,洪水最常发生在春季,尤其是3月和4月。机器学习模型的分类准确率达到80%以上,证明了其可靠性。这项工作改善了洪水监测,并为哈萨克斯坦的气候适应和有针对性的洪水风险管理提供了重要见解。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing perceptions of various stakeholders on climate change mitigation and adaptation in rural areas in Cameroon: The use of ICTs 评估各利益攸关方对喀麦隆农村地区减缓和适应气候变化的看法:信息通信技术的使用
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100780
Hubert Fudjumdjum, Walter Leal Filho
The threat of climate change is a global issue that requires international attention. These impacts affect agricultural production, with smallholder farmers recording lower yields as rainfall patterns change and the temperatures increase. This study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the potential contributions of information and communication technologies (ICTs) to climate change adaptation and, where applicable, mitigation efforts in rural areas, with a specific emphasis on agricultural adaptation. This qualitative case study was based on three focus group discussions with 30 smallholder farmers in the Koung-Khi department of Western Cameroon. Participants were selected purposively, and the data were analysed thematically using NVivo software. The results indicate that the absence of modern technologies limits rural communities’ ability to adapt to climate change. Additionally, many rural communities require more financial resources to invest in modern technologies to help them adapt to climate change-related impacts. To address the high risks of climate change to agriculture and food security in rural settings, national policies and institutions should develop ICT-based national programs for smallholder farmers and producers. People have gained a deeper understanding of how modern technologies can adapt to climate change, enabling them to diversify and produce crops under various circumstances. Governments and development agencies should promote and support rural adaptation and mitigation by investing in modern technology.
气候变化的威胁是一个需要国际关注的全球性问题。这些影响影响到农业生产,随着降雨模式的变化和气温的升高,小农的产量下降。本研究旨在全面了解信息通信技术(ict)对适应气候变化的潜在贡献,并在适用的情况下对农村地区的减缓工作作出贡献,特别强调农业适应。这一定性案例研究是基于与喀麦隆西部kung - khi省30名小农进行的三次焦点小组讨论。有目的地选择参与者,并使用NVivo软件对数据进行主题分析。结果表明,现代技术的缺乏限制了农村社区适应气候变化的能力。此外,许多农村社区需要更多的财政资源来投资于现代技术,以帮助他们适应与气候变化有关的影响。为了应对气候变化给农村农业和粮食安全带来的高风险,国家政策和机构应该为小农和生产者制定基于信息通信技术的国家计划。人们对现代技术如何适应气候变化有了更深的了解,使他们能够在各种情况下多样化和生产农作物。各国政府和发展机构应通过投资现代技术,促进和支持农村适应和缓解气候变化。
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引用次数: 0
How relocation impacts wellbeing over time and across population groups: The case of Grantham, Australia 随着时间的推移和人口群体的迁移如何影响幸福感:以澳大利亚格兰瑟姆为例
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100781
Annah Piggott-McKellar , Georgia Bergin , Jasmine Pearson
This article examines the planned relocation of Grantham, Australia that underwent a government-supported voluntary land-swap program following a catastrophic flood event in 2011. Using a wellbeing framing, this study investigates the long-term outcomes of the relocation, analysing perspectives of those who remained living in the old site, those who relocated to the new site, those who moved to Grantham after the relocation, and project staff involved in coordinating and managing the relocation process. Findings reveal that relocation has catalysed into diverse wellbeing outcomes for different population groups. While relocated individuals report enhanced physical safety, they also face emotional and psychological hardships, as do those who didn’t relocate. The research further highlights the complexities of community networks and cohesion, noting that the relocation process has led to divisions among residents based on perceived inequities in the relocation process, and the physical separation of the community. This division is experienced by not only those who live at the old site, and those living at the new site, but also newcomers to Grantham. Additionally, an experienced absence of essential community infrastructure, such as social hubs and transport services, has hindered the integration of relocated individuals and newcomers, further impacting broader wellbeing. While the relocation of Grantham was undoubtedly successful in reducing physical exposure for households who relocated, this article underscores the need and challenges in addressing not only physical safety in relocation planning but also the broader social, and psychological dimensions, offering insights for future policies and practices in disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation.
本文考察了澳大利亚格兰瑟姆在2011年一场灾难性的洪水事件后,在政府支持下自愿进行土地交换的计划搬迁。本研究采用福利框架,调查了搬迁的长期结果,分析了那些仍然生活在旧址的人,那些搬迁到新址的人,搬迁后搬到格兰瑟姆的人,以及参与协调和管理搬迁过程的项目工作人员的观点。研究结果表明,搬迁促进了不同人群的不同福祉结果。虽然搬迁的人报告说他们的人身安全得到了加强,但他们也面临着情感和心理上的困难,就像那些没有搬迁的人一样。该研究进一步强调了社区网络和凝聚力的复杂性,指出搬迁过程导致了居民之间的分裂,这是基于搬迁过程中感知到的不平等,以及社区的物理分离。不仅住在旧场地的人和住在新场地的人都经历过这种分裂,格兰瑟姆的新来者也经历过这种分裂。此外,长期缺乏必要的社区基础设施,如社交中心和交通服务,阻碍了重新安置的个人和新移民的融合,进一步影响了更广泛的福祉。虽然格兰瑟姆的搬迁无疑成功地减少了搬迁家庭的身体暴露,但本文强调了在搬迁规划中不仅要解决人身安全问题,还要解决更广泛的社会和心理层面的问题,这为未来减少灾害风险和适应气候的政策和实践提供了见解。
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引用次数: 0
From climate change to dam construction: A multi-stressor analysis of global river water temperature change 从气候变化到大坝建设:全球河流水温变化的多应力分析
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100778
Jin Gao, Jiawen Zhang, Yiwei Gong, Kaiming Yang, Weici Quan, Lu Li, Yuxi Wu, Rui Wang, Hongguang Cheng
River water temperature is a critical determinant of aquatic ecosystem health and water resource security. Understanding the compounded effects of climate change and human activities is therefore paramount. This review pioneers a quantitative synthesis of the research landscape, employing bibliometric analysis to move beyond narrative summaries and objectively map the field’s intellectual structure at a global scale. Our analysis confirms climate change as the principal driver of river warming, exacerbated by extreme events. Critically, we highlight the pervasive role of human activities, such as dam construction, urbanization, and land-use change, in modulating these thermal regimes through complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions. A key finding is that while dam operations can antagonistically buffer climate-driven warming by creating thermal lags, urbanization and reduced flows often synergistically amplify it. These multi-stressor dynamics exhibit significant regional and seasonal variation, with urban hotspots and latitudinal disparities being particularly evident. This data-driven mapping underscores the urgent need to shift research towards untangling these interactions. We conclude by advocating for enhanced monitoring, the development of advanced multi-source coupled models, and context-specific management strategies, such as optimized reservoir operations and riparian restoration, to mitigate compounded pressures and enhance ecosystem resilience under global change.
河流水温是水生态系统健康和水资源安全的重要决定因素。因此,了解气候变化和人类活动的复合影响至关重要。这篇综述开创了研究景观的定量综合,采用文献计量学分析超越叙事总结,客观地绘制了全球范围内该领域的知识结构。我们的分析证实,气候变化是河流变暖的主要驱动因素,极端事件加剧了河流变暖。重要的是,我们强调了人类活动的普遍作用,如大坝建设、城市化和土地利用变化,通过复杂的协同和拮抗相互作用来调节这些热状态。一个重要的发现是,虽然大坝运行可以通过产生热滞后来对抗气候驱动的变暖,但城市化和流量减少往往会协同放大气候驱动的变暖。这些多应力源动态表现出显著的区域和季节差异,城市热点和纬度差异尤为明显。这种数据驱动的映射强调了迫切需要将研究转向解开这些相互作用。最后,我们提倡加强监测,开发先进的多源耦合模型,以及针对具体情况的管理策略,如优化水库操作和河岸恢复,以减轻全球变化下的复合压力,增强生态系统的恢复能力。
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引用次数: 0
Bridging community resilience and local planning for climate justice 衔接社区复原力和地方气候正义规划
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100776
Kelsea Best , Qian He , Aaron B. Flores , Donghwan Gu , Junia Howell , David R. Johnson , Yanjun Liao , Allison C. Reilly , Andrew Rumbach , Tamara Sheldon , A.R. Siders , Gabrielle Wong-Parodi , Rachel Young , Deb Niemeier
As the effects of climate change increase, and as the federal government deprioritizes climate action, local governments must grapple with the complex challenge of enhancing resilience. Despite the importance of local-scale planning and finance for equitable climate resilience, the knowledge needed to support such efforts is poorly defined. We outline four challenge areas and corresponding priority considerations: capacity and governance, adaptation and recovery, funding mechanisms, and data and methodological needs. By strengthening knowledge and partnerships in each of these areas, scholars, policymakers, and practitioners can better support communities to respond to and recover from the effects of a changing climate.
随着气候变化影响的增加,以及联邦政府对气候行动的不重视,地方政府必须努力应对增强韧性的复杂挑战。尽管地方规模的规划和融资对于公平的气候适应能力至关重要,但支持此类努力所需的知识却定义不清。我们概述了四个挑战领域和相应的优先考虑:能力和治理、适应和恢复、融资机制以及数据和方法需求。通过加强这些领域的知识和伙伴关系,学者、政策制定者和从业者可以更好地支持社区应对气候变化的影响并从中恢复过来。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing exposure inequity to heatwaves between urban and rural populations across 18 Asian countries in a warmer climate 评估在气候变暖的情况下,18个亚洲国家的城乡人口对热浪的暴露不平等
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100777
Meng-Zhuo Zhang , Zhongfeng Xu , Ying Han , Weidong Guo
Continued warming intensifies heatwaves, burdening human health across Asia. Given the distinct vulnerabilities to heat exposure between urban and rural populations, we project future changes in summer heatwave exposure and assess urban–rural exposure inequity throughout 2021–2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios across 18 Asian countries. Results suggest substantial exposure increases in the future against the baseline, primarily driven by climate change. With ongoing urbanization, urban–rural exposure inequity will continuously rise, with India and China emerging as the hardest-hit countries. Generally, urban and rural population exposures tend to increase in the future, whereas urban will contribute 76 % of the total growth on average during 2021–2060 and 90 % during 2061–2100. This inequity can be largely derived from the disparity in urban–rural compounding effects induced by simultaneous changes in climate and population. Furthermore, a novel normalized index is developed to potentially indicate the relative need for developing and implementing future country-level heatwave adaptation measures between urban and rural. Our findings highlight the necessity for tailored adaptation strategies for individual countries, prioritizing the urban for China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, and Malaysia, and equal emphasis placed on implementing heatwave adaptation measures in rural as in urban for Mongolia, as well as Nepal, Bangladesh, and Cambodia under SSP2-4.5. Additionally, incorporating age structures reveals that future population aging will narrow the urban–rural adaptation needs for elderly (60+) adults while widening those for younger (<60) adults. We also emphasize the uncertainty of future exposure changes and their urban–rural inequity, which should be considered for decision-making. Our findings can inform future country-level planning of targeted heatwave adaptations in both urban and rural to cope with continuously increasing heatwave risks. The proposed method can also help assess future exposure inequity to other climate risks between urban and rural populations, which is critical for prioritizing resources and promoting equity in urban–rural climate adaptation policy.
持续变暖加剧了热浪,给亚洲各地的人类健康造成了负担。鉴于城市和农村人口对热暴露的不同脆弱性,我们预测了未来夏季热浪暴露的变化,并评估了18个亚洲国家在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下2021-2100年的城乡暴露不平等。结果表明,主要受气候变化的驱动,未来的暴露量将比基线大幅增加。随着城市化进程的不断推进,城乡暴露不平等将持续加剧,印度和中国将成为受影响最严重的国家。总体而言,城市和农村人口暴露在未来都有增加的趋势,而在2021-2060年和2061-2100年期间,城市人口暴露将平均贡献总增长的76%和90%。这种不平等在很大程度上源于气候和人口同时变化所引起的城乡复合效应的差异。此外,还开发了一种新的标准化指数,以潜在地表明在城市和农村之间制定和实施未来国家级热浪适应措施的相对必要性。我们的研究结果强调了为个别国家制定量身定制的适应战略的必要性,中国、日本、韩国、朝鲜和马来西亚优先考虑城市,蒙古、尼泊尔、孟加拉国和柬埔寨在SSP2-4.5下同样重视在农村实施热浪适应措施。此外,纳入年龄结构的研究表明,未来人口老龄化将缩小老年人(60岁以上)的城乡适应需求,而扩大年轻人(60岁)的城乡适应需求。我们还强调了未来暴露变化的不确定性及其城乡不平等,这在决策时应予以考虑。我们的研究结果可以为未来国家层面的城市和农村有针对性的热浪适应规划提供信息,以应对不断增加的热浪风险。该方法还可以帮助评估未来城乡人口对其他气候风险的暴露不平等,这对于资源优先排序和促进城乡气候适应政策的公平性至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Heat waves in urban areas in Latin America. A review of the literature from the social sciences+ 拉丁美洲城市的热浪。社会科学文献综述+
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100772
A. Vallejos-Romero , A. Mellado , M. Cordoves-Sánchez , C. Cisternas Irarrázabal , A. Boso , F. Sáez-Ardura
As climate change intensifies, the frequency and intensity of heat waves have increased significantly. Adaptation to such extreme events has become a topic of growing research interest. However, scientific production is concentrated in countries of the Global North. In this context, this paper presents a systematic review of publications on social adaptation to heat waves in urban areas of Latin America. The analysis was carried out on 48 publications indexed in Web of Science and Scopus. Four lines of research were identified: (1) outdoor thermal comfort, (2) indoor thermal comfort, (3) health threats and impacts of heat waves, and (4) heat wave mitigation and resilience. In each of these lines of research, several challenges emerge that highlight the need for multidimensional and adaptive approaches to address urban heat in the region, ranging from urban planning to the implementation of contextualised mitigation strategies.
随着气候变化的加剧,热浪的频率和强度显著增加。如何适应这样的极端事件已经成为人们越来越感兴趣的研究课题。然而,科学生产主要集中在北半球国家。在此背景下,本文对拉丁美洲城市地区对热浪的社会适应的出版物进行了系统回顾。该分析是在Web of Science和Scopus中检索的48份出版物中进行的。确定了四个研究方向:(1)室外热舒适;(2)室内热舒适;(3)热浪对健康的威胁和影响;(4)热浪缓解和恢复。在每一项研究中,都出现了一些挑战,这些挑战突出表明需要采取多维和适应性的方法来解决该地区的城市高温问题,从城市规划到实施因地利化的缓解战略。
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引用次数: 0
Compound coastal flood exposure in global deltas: an integrated assessment of sea-level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic dynamics 全球三角洲复合沿海洪水暴露:海平面上升、下沉和社会经济动态的综合评估
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100775
Shupu Wu , Can Lu , Johan Reyns , Xudong Zhou , Wenzhen Zhao , Md. Jaker Hossain , Xiuzhen Li , Jiayi Fang , Weiguo Zhang , Heqin Cheng , Qing He
Delta regions worldwide face escalating coastal flood risks driven by the compound effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and vertical land motion (VLM). Existing studies often analyze these hazards separately and rely heavily on simplified static inundation models, limiting the accuracy of flood impact assessments and neglecting dynamic socioeconomic factors. This study develops an integrated framework combining high-resolution VLM monitoring (SBAS-InSAR), dynamic hydrodynamic modeling (LISFLOOD-FP), and socioeconomic projections (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for comprehensive flood impact evaluation in three globally significant deltas: the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), Mississippi, and Yangtze. Results highlight severe and spatially variable subsidence rates—most notably in the GBM Delta (–8.98 mm/year), followed by the Mississippi (–2.93 mm/year) and Yangtze (–1.60 mm/year)—with human activities likely playing an important role in driving surface deformation. Projected flood scenarios (2050 and 2080) indicate significant increases in inundation extents and exposed populations and economic assets, particularly under combined SLR + VLM scenarios. The Yangtze Delta shows the highest economic exposure (up to approximately 1 trillion USD), whereas the GBM Delta exhibits the greatest demographic vulnerability, potentially affecting approximately 20 million individuals. The relative contributions analysis emphasizes an increasing dominance of SLR over time, especially under high-emission scenarios. These findings underscore the critical importance of tailored, region-specific adaptation strategies including resilient infrastructure, nature-based solutions, and adaptive spatial planning.
全球三角洲地区在海平面上升和陆地垂直运动的复合作用下,沿海洪水风险不断上升。现有研究往往分别分析这些灾害,严重依赖简化的静态淹没模型,限制了洪水影响评估的准确性,忽视了动态的社会经济因素。本研究开发了一个综合框架,结合高分辨率VLM监测(SBAS-InSAR)、动态水动力学建模(LISFLOOD-FP)和社会经济预测(共享社会经济路径:SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5),对恒河-雅鲁藏布江-梅格纳河(GBM)、密西西比河和长江三个全球重要三角洲进行综合洪水影响评估。研究结果表明,地表沉降速率具有明显的空间差异,其中以GBM三角洲最为显著(-8.98 mm/年),其次是密西西比河(-2.93 mm/年)和长江(-1.60 mm/年),人类活动可能在地表变形中发挥了重要作用。预测的洪水情景(2050年和2080年)表明,淹没范围、暴露人口和经济资产显著增加,特别是在SLR + VLM组合情景下。长江三角洲的经济风险最高(高达约1万亿美元),而GBM三角洲的人口脆弱性最大,可能影响约2000万人。相对贡献分析强调单反的优势随着时间的推移而增加,特别是在高排放情景下。这些发现强调了有针对性的区域适应战略的重要性,包括弹性基础设施、基于自然的解决方案和适应性空间规划。
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Climate Risk Management
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