Climate Risk Management最新文献_第2页

Assessing exposure inequity to heatwaves between urban and rural populations across 18 Asian countries in a warmer climate 评估在气候变暖的情况下，18个亚洲国家的城乡人口对热浪的暴露不平等

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100777

Meng-Zhuo Zhang , Zhongfeng Xu , Ying Han , Weidong Guo

Continued warming intensifies heatwaves, burdening human health across Asia. Given the distinct vulnerabilities to heat exposure between urban and rural populations, we project future changes in summer heatwave exposure and assess urban–rural exposure inequity throughout 2021–2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios across 18 Asian countries. Results suggest substantial exposure increases in the future against the baseline, primarily driven by climate change. With ongoing urbanization, urban–rural exposure inequity will continuously rise, with India and China emerging as the hardest-hit countries. Generally, urban and rural population exposures tend to increase in the future, whereas urban will contribute 76 % of the total growth on average during 2021–2060 and 90 % during 2061–2100. This inequity can be largely derived from the disparity in urban–rural compounding effects induced by simultaneous changes in climate and population. Furthermore, a novel normalized index is developed to potentially indicate the relative need for developing and implementing future country-level heatwave adaptation measures between urban and rural. Our findings highlight the necessity for tailored adaptation strategies for individual countries, prioritizing the urban for China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, and Malaysia, and equal emphasis placed on implementing heatwave adaptation measures in rural as in urban for Mongolia, as well as Nepal, Bangladesh, and Cambodia under SSP2-4.5. Additionally, incorporating age structures reveals that future population aging will narrow the urban–rural adaptation needs for elderly (60+) adults while widening those for younger (<60) adults. We also emphasize the uncertainty of future exposure changes and their urban–rural inequity, which should be considered for decision-making. Our findings can inform future country-level planning of targeted heatwave adaptations in both urban and rural to cope with continuously increasing heatwave risks. The proposed method can also help assess future exposure inequity to other climate risks between urban and rural populations, which is critical for prioritizing resources and promoting equity in urban–rural climate adaptation policy.

持续变暖加剧了热浪，给亚洲各地的人类健康造成了负担。鉴于城市和农村人口对热暴露的不同脆弱性，我们预测了未来夏季热浪暴露的变化，并评估了18个亚洲国家在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下2021-2100年的城乡暴露不平等。结果表明，主要受气候变化的驱动，未来的暴露量将比基线大幅增加。随着城市化进程的不断推进，城乡暴露不平等将持续加剧，印度和中国将成为受影响最严重的国家。总体而言，城市和农村人口暴露在未来都有增加的趋势，而在2021-2060年和2061-2100年期间，城市人口暴露将平均贡献总增长的76%和90%。这种不平等在很大程度上源于气候和人口同时变化所引起的城乡复合效应的差异。此外，还开发了一种新的标准化指数，以潜在地表明在城市和农村之间制定和实施未来国家级热浪适应措施的相对必要性。我们的研究结果强调了为个别国家制定量身定制的适应战略的必要性，中国、日本、韩国、朝鲜和马来西亚优先考虑城市，蒙古、尼泊尔、孟加拉国和柬埔寨在SSP2-4.5下同样重视在农村实施热浪适应措施。此外，纳入年龄结构的研究表明，未来人口老龄化将缩小老年人（60岁以上）的城乡适应需求，而扩大年轻人（60岁）的城乡适应需求。我们还强调了未来暴露变化的不确定性及其城乡不平等，这在决策时应予以考虑。我们的研究结果可以为未来国家层面的城市和农村有针对性的热浪适应规划提供信息，以应对不断增加的热浪风险。该方法还可以帮助评估未来城乡人口对其他气候风险的暴露不平等，这对于资源优先排序和促进城乡气候适应政策的公平性至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

How relocation impacts wellbeing over time and across population groups: The case of Grantham, Australia 随着时间的推移和人口群体的迁移如何影响幸福感：以澳大利亚格兰瑟姆为例

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100781

Annah Piggott-McKellar , Georgia Bergin , Jasmine Pearson

This article examines the planned relocation of Grantham, Australia that underwent a government-supported voluntary land-swap program following a catastrophic flood event in 2011. Using a wellbeing framing, this study investigates the long-term outcomes of the relocation, analysing perspectives of those who remained living in the old site, those who relocated to the new site, those who moved to Grantham after the relocation, and project staff involved in coordinating and managing the relocation process. Findings reveal that relocation has catalysed into diverse wellbeing outcomes for different population groups. While relocated individuals report enhanced physical safety, they also face emotional and psychological hardships, as do those who didn’t relocate. The research further highlights the complexities of community networks and cohesion, noting that the relocation process has led to divisions among residents based on perceived inequities in the relocation process, and the physical separation of the community. This division is experienced by not only those who live at the old site, and those living at the new site, but also newcomers to Grantham. Additionally, an experienced absence of essential community infrastructure, such as social hubs and transport services, has hindered the integration of relocated individuals and newcomers, further impacting broader wellbeing. While the relocation of Grantham was undoubtedly successful in reducing physical exposure for households who relocated, this article underscores the need and challenges in addressing not only physical safety in relocation planning but also the broader social, and psychological dimensions, offering insights for future policies and practices in disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation.

本文考察了澳大利亚格兰瑟姆在2011年一场灾难性的洪水事件后，在政府支持下自愿进行土地交换的计划搬迁。本研究采用福利框架，调查了搬迁的长期结果，分析了那些仍然生活在旧址的人，那些搬迁到新址的人，搬迁后搬到格兰瑟姆的人，以及参与协调和管理搬迁过程的项目工作人员的观点。研究结果表明，搬迁促进了不同人群的不同福祉结果。虽然搬迁的人报告说他们的人身安全得到了加强，但他们也面临着情感和心理上的困难，就像那些没有搬迁的人一样。该研究进一步强调了社区网络和凝聚力的复杂性，指出搬迁过程导致了居民之间的分裂，这是基于搬迁过程中感知到的不平等，以及社区的物理分离。不仅住在旧场地的人和住在新场地的人都经历过这种分裂，格兰瑟姆的新来者也经历过这种分裂。此外，长期缺乏必要的社区基础设施，如社交中心和交通服务，阻碍了重新安置的个人和新移民的融合，进一步影响了更广泛的福祉。虽然格兰瑟姆的搬迁无疑成功地减少了搬迁家庭的身体暴露，但本文强调了在搬迁规划中不仅要解决人身安全问题，还要解决更广泛的社会和心理层面的问题，这为未来减少灾害风险和适应气候的政策和实践提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Just beach 只是海滩

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100790

Kammie-Dominique Tavares , Renee O. Setter , Tanya Dreizin , Alan Clinton , Alisha Summers , Makena Coffman

Sandy beaches are being squeezed out of existence due to a combination of erosion, coastal development, poor management practices, and sea level rise. This study offers a beach-scale analysis of the cost of managed retreat for the island of Kaua‘i through the end of the century, prompted by state laws to preserve sandy beaches and County efforts to implement proactive planning solutions. We estimate the cost of property acquisition, deconstruction, and infrastructural realignment across forty beaches under future projections of coastal erosion and sea level rise − a total of $3.1 billion ($2025). Half of the total costs through 2100 is for immediate (2025) needs ($1.7 billion), 94% of which is road infrastructure and the water supply pipes underneath. Infrastructure dominates the total cost of adaptation ($2.0 billion). While residential development represents the largest land use type impacted by coastal erosion, residential parcels account for the second greatest share of adaptation costs ($0.6 billion). Meanwhile, hotel and resort areas affect fewer beaches yet with substantial costs ($0.5 billion). Our results show that historical coastal planning decisions have created development lock-in patterns that make beach-centered adaptation costly. Furthermore, as achieving justice within adaptation relies on information at multiple spatial and temporal scales, this study can be used to inform broader deliberations for sea level rise adaptation.

由于侵蚀、海岸开发、管理不善和海平面上升，沙滩正在逐渐消失。这项研究提供了一个海滩规模的成本分析，到本世纪末，考艾岛管理撤退的成本，受到国家法律保护沙滩和县努力实施积极规划解决方案的推动。根据未来海岸侵蚀和海平面上升的预测，我们估计了40个海滩的房产收购、解构和基础设施重组的成本——总计31亿美元（2025年美元）。到2100年，总成本的一半将用于当下（2025年）的需求（17亿美元），其中94%用于道路基础设施和地下供水管道。基础设施占适应总成本的大头（20亿美元）。虽然住宅开发是受海岸侵蚀影响最大的土地利用类型，但住宅地块占适应成本的第二大份额（6亿美元）。与此同时，酒店和度假区对海滩的影响较少，但成本却很高（5亿美元）。我们的研究结果表明，历史上的沿海规划决策创造了发展锁定模式，使以海滩为中心的适应成本高昂。此外，由于在适应中实现正义依赖于多个时空尺度的信息，因此该研究可用于为更广泛的海平面上升适应讨论提供信息。

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引用次数: 0

Heat waves in urban areas in Latin America. A review of the literature from the social sciences+ 拉丁美洲城市的热浪。社会科学文献综述+

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100772

A. Vallejos-Romero , A. Mellado , M. Cordoves-Sánchez , C. Cisternas Irarrázabal , A. Boso , F. Sáez-Ardura

As climate change intensifies, the frequency and intensity of heat waves have increased significantly. Adaptation to such extreme events has become a topic of growing research interest. However, scientific production is concentrated in countries of the Global North. In this context, this paper presents a systematic review of publications on social adaptation to heat waves in urban areas of Latin America. The analysis was carried out on 48 publications indexed in Web of Science and Scopus. Four lines of research were identified: (1) outdoor thermal comfort, (2) indoor thermal comfort, (3) health threats and impacts of heat waves, and (4) heat wave mitigation and resilience. In each of these lines of research, several challenges emerge that highlight the need for multidimensional and adaptive approaches to address urban heat in the region, ranging from urban planning to the implementation of contextualised mitigation strategies.

随着气候变化的加剧，热浪的频率和强度显著增加。如何适应这样的极端事件已经成为人们越来越感兴趣的研究课题。然而，科学生产主要集中在北半球国家。在此背景下，本文对拉丁美洲城市地区对热浪的社会适应的出版物进行了系统回顾。该分析是在Web of Science和Scopus中检索的48份出版物中进行的。确定了四个研究方向：(1)室外热舒适；(2)室内热舒适；(3)热浪对健康的威胁和影响；(4)热浪缓解和恢复。在每一项研究中，都出现了一些挑战，这些挑战突出表明需要采取多维和适应性的方法来解决该地区的城市高温问题，从城市规划到实施因地利化的缓解战略。

引用次数: 0

The shift of heat-related respiratory mortality from 2005 to 2019 in China and its socioeconomic determinants 2005 - 2019年中国热相关呼吸道死亡率的变化及其社会经济决定因素

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100789

Xiaohui Ji , Peng Yin , Haomin Tan , Jiangmei Liu , Zhiying Jiang , Jinlei Qi , Guanhao He , Jianxiong Hu , Fengrui Jing , Ziqiang Lin , Tao Liu , Wenjun Ma , Maigeng Zhou

While extensive research has examined acute mortality risks associated with heat exposure, emerging evidence indicates a paradoxical decline in heat-attributable mortality across developed nations. Yet critical knowledge gaps persist regarding this epidemiological transition in China. Our study collected daily respiratory mortality data from 2,219 districts/counties in 31 provinces, China during 2005–2019. We investigated the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) experienced an increment of 0.124℃ per year from 2005 to 2019 (P = 0.038), while the excess risk (ER) associated with extreme heat declined from 9.46% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 4.81–14.32%) in 2005–2007 to 3.51% (95% CI: 2.12–4.92%) in 2017–2019, representing a 62.88% (95% CI: 55.31–69.99%) reduction. Similarly, the attributable fraction (AF) also decreased from 1.26% (95% CI: 0.57–1.92%) to 0.38% (95% CI: 0.21–0.55%), marking a 69.84% (95% CI: 48.91–89.24%) decrease. Stratified analyses revealed the mortality burdens decreases were more pronounced among males, individuals 0–64 years, southern China, and patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Urbanization rate, the prevalence of air conditioning, and green space were top three socioeconomic factors driving this temporal shift. Our analysis reveals an attenuation of heat-associated respiratory mortality between 2005–2019, concurrent with rising MMT exhibiting pronounced population and spatial disparities. It underscores the critical role of adaptive capacity in mitigating climate change-related health burdens, informing targeted public health strategies.

虽然广泛的研究已经检查了与热暴露相关的急性死亡风险，但新出现的证据表明，发达国家因热导致的死亡率出现了矛盾的下降。然而，关于中国这一流行病学转变的关键知识差距仍然存在。我们的研究收集了2005-2019年中国31个省2219个区/县的每日呼吸道死亡率数据。从2005年到2019年，最低死亡温度（MMT）每年增加0.124℃（P = 0.038），而与极端高温相关的超额风险（ER）从2005 - 2007年的9.46%（95%置信区间（CI）： 4.81 ~ 14.32%）下降到2017-2019年的3.51% (95% CI: 2.12 ~ 4.92%)，减少了62.88% （95% CI: 55.31 ~ 69.99%）。同样，归因分数（AF）也从1.26% （95% CI: 0.57-1.92%）下降到0.38% (95% CI: 0.21-0.55%)，下降了69.84% （95% CI: 48.91-89.24%）。分层分析显示，死亡率负担的下降在男性、0-64岁的个体、中国南方和慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）患者中更为明显。城市化率、空调普及率和绿地是推动这一时间变化的三大社会经济因素。我们的分析显示，2005年至2019年期间，与热相关的呼吸道死亡率有所下降，同时MMT上升，表现出明显的人口和空间差异。它强调了适应能力在减轻与气候变化有关的健康负担、为有针对性的公共卫生战略提供信息方面的关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Taking values seriously for transformational climate change adaptation 认真对待转型适应气候变化的价值观

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100791

Elisa Calliari , Tara Quinn , Michael Klenk , Lovleen Bhullar , Iva Peša , Matthew J. Dennis

Climate change is causing extensive and unprecedented impacts on individuals, societies, and ecosystems. Transformational efforts are increasingly advocated to overcome limits to climate change adaptation, but they can entail difficult and potentially disruptive decisions that depend on the goals that individuals and societies decide to pursue, and thus on the values they wish to prioritise, reconfigure or leave behind in response to radical changes. The call for transformational adaptation revives the impetus for placing values centre stage but also poses key challenges for adaptation research and practice. This perspective outlines three challenges for taking values seriously: understanding what values are, by acknowledging both their descriptive and normative dimensions; accounting for the multiplicity of value holders across space and time; and designing processes through which value conflicts are made explicit and can be legitimately resolved. We outline how ethics can help in determining the relation between what people find valuable and normatively well-grounded values; propose ‘value mapping’ exercises to elicit the values of actors involved in the adaptation process; and stress the potential of deliberative approaches in supporting efforts for more transformative adaptation. These challenges are exemplified through planned relocation, a radical and potentially transformative adaptation response. This paper outlines the distinction between descriptive and normative conceptions of values, a distinction often overlooked in environmental social sciences, and demonstrates its significance for addressing the multiplicity of values and conflicts in transformational adaptation. Rather than prescribing a definitive method for closing the gap between these descriptive and normative conceptions on values, it traces an initial pathway for integrating empirical and ethical perspectives and calls for renewed collaborations across the social sciences and humanities to advance values-based adaptation research and practice.

气候变化正在对个人、社会和生态系统造成广泛和前所未有的影响。越来越多的人提倡转型努力，以克服适应气候变化的限制，但这些努力可能需要做出困难和潜在破坏性的决定，这取决于个人和社会决定追求的目标，从而取决于他们希望优先考虑、重新配置或放弃的价值观，以应对激进的变化。对转型适应的呼吁重振了将价值观置于中心位置的动力，但也为适应研究和实践带来了关键挑战。这一观点概述了认真对待价值观的三个挑战：通过承认其描述性和规范性维度来理解价值观是什么；考虑到跨越空间和时间的价值持有者的多样性；设计流程，使价值冲突变得明确，并能合理地解决。我们概述了伦理如何帮助确定人们认为有价值的价值观与规范上有充分基础的价值观之间的关系；提出“价值映射”练习，以引出参与适应过程的行动者的价值观；并强调审议方法在支持更具变革性的适应努力方面的潜力。这些挑战体现在有计划的搬迁、激进的、可能具有变革性的适应应对措施上。本文概述了描述性和规范性价值观概念之间的区别，这一区别在环境社会科学中经常被忽视，并论证了其对解决转型适应中的价值观多样性和冲突的重要性。它没有规定一种明确的方法来缩小这些描述性和规范性价值观之间的差距，而是追溯了整合经验和伦理观点的初步途径，并呼吁在社会科学和人文科学之间重新开展合作，以推进基于价值观的适应研究和实践。

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引用次数: 0

Compound coastal flood exposure in global deltas: an integrated assessment of sea-level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic dynamics 全球三角洲复合沿海洪水暴露：海平面上升、下沉和社会经济动态的综合评估

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100775

Shupu Wu , Can Lu , Johan Reyns , Xudong Zhou , Wenzhen Zhao , Md. Jaker Hossain , Xiuzhen Li , Jiayi Fang , Weiguo Zhang , Heqin Cheng , Qing He

Delta regions worldwide face escalating coastal flood risks driven by the compound effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and vertical land motion (VLM). Existing studies often analyze these hazards separately and rely heavily on simplified static inundation models, limiting the accuracy of flood impact assessments and neglecting dynamic socioeconomic factors. This study develops an integrated framework combining high-resolution VLM monitoring (SBAS-InSAR), dynamic hydrodynamic modeling (LISFLOOD-FP), and socioeconomic projections (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for comprehensive flood impact evaluation in three globally significant deltas: the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), Mississippi, and Yangtze. Results highlight severe and spatially variable subsidence rates—most notably in the GBM Delta (–8.98 mm/year), followed by the Mississippi (–2.93 mm/year) and Yangtze (–1.60 mm/year)—with human activities likely playing an important role in driving surface deformation. Projected flood scenarios (2050 and 2080) indicate significant increases in inundation extents and exposed populations and economic assets, particularly under combined SLR + VLM scenarios. The Yangtze Delta shows the highest economic exposure (up to approximately 1 trillion USD), whereas the GBM Delta exhibits the greatest demographic vulnerability, potentially affecting approximately 20 million individuals. The relative contributions analysis emphasizes an increasing dominance of SLR over time, especially under high-emission scenarios. These findings underscore the critical importance of tailored, region-specific adaptation strategies including resilient infrastructure, nature-based solutions, and adaptive spatial planning.

全球三角洲地区在海平面上升和陆地垂直运动的复合作用下，沿海洪水风险不断上升。现有研究往往分别分析这些灾害，严重依赖简化的静态淹没模型，限制了洪水影响评估的准确性，忽视了动态的社会经济因素。本研究开发了一个综合框架，结合高分辨率VLM监测（SBAS-InSAR）、动态水动力学建模（LISFLOOD-FP）和社会经济预测（共享社会经济路径：SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5），对恒河-雅鲁藏布江-梅格纳河（GBM）、密西西比河和长江三个全球重要三角洲进行综合洪水影响评估。研究结果表明，地表沉降速率具有明显的空间差异，其中以GBM三角洲最为显著（-8.98 mm/年），其次是密西西比河（-2.93 mm/年）和长江（-1.60 mm/年），人类活动可能在地表变形中发挥了重要作用。预测的洪水情景（2050年和2080年）表明，淹没范围、暴露人口和经济资产显著增加，特别是在SLR + VLM组合情景下。长江三角洲的经济风险最高（高达约1万亿美元），而GBM三角洲的人口脆弱性最大，可能影响约2000万人。相对贡献分析强调单反的优势随着时间的推移而增加，特别是在高排放情景下。这些发现强调了有针对性的区域适应战略的重要性，包括弹性基础设施、基于自然的解决方案和适应性空间规划。

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引用次数: 0

When it rains, it pours: integration of equity in flood risk management in Boulder County, Colorado 祸不双全：科罗拉多州博尔德县洪水风险管理的整合

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100788

Lauren Stevenson, Elizabeth Reddy, Junko Munakata Marr, Marie Stettler Kleine

Flooding disproportionately impacts underserved and marginalized communities. Institutional means of addressing environmental injustice related to such events remain inadequate in the United States of America. Professionals involved in community engagement and risk management contend with these challenges nonetheless, drawing on their personal ideas about equity rather than formal guidance to do so. This study uses qualitative methods to explore how local, county, and region-level government professionals in Boulder County, Colorado, understand and engage with equity in flood risk management. We sort the approaches to equity that study participants described into three categories, responding to their focus on: access needs, traditionally and present-day overlooked groups, and the duty of a government employee to serve the whole community. While other scholars have productively categorized such ideas and practices in relation to theories of equity, we turn instead to notions of efficacious practice through design frameworks developed in disability studies. Doing so, we offer a model for understanding empirical approaches to equity that professionals may use in the absence of other guidance. . Our results show that disability studies can provide powerful insights for research on flood risk management. Further, they demonstrate the importance of critical engagement with how professionals navigate their work in support of equity in the context of substantial institutional failures.

洪水对服务不足和边缘化社区的影响尤为严重。在美利坚合众国，解决与此类事件有关的环境不公正现象的体制手段仍然不足。尽管如此，参与社区参与和风险管理的专业人士仍在应对这些挑战，他们利用自己对公平的个人想法，而不是正式的指导。本研究使用定性方法探讨科罗拉多州博尔德县的地方、县和区级政府专业人员如何理解和参与洪水风险管理的公平性。我们将研究参与者描述的实现公平的方法分为三类，以回应他们关注的重点：获取需求，传统和现在被忽视的群体，以及政府雇员为整个社区服务的责任。虽然其他学者已经将这些想法和实践与公平理论进行了富有成效的分类，但我们通过残疾研究中开发的设计框架转向有效实践的概念。这样做，我们提供了一个模型来理解实证方法的公平，专业人士可能会在缺乏其他指导的情况下使用。我们的研究结果表明，残疾研究可以为洪水风险管理研究提供强有力的见解。此外，他们还证明了在重大制度失败的背景下，专业人士如何在支持公平的工作中进行批判性参与的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating uncertainty: an assessment of climate change risks to the marine and coastal environment of Sri Lanka 导航不确定性：气候变化对斯里兰卡海洋和沿海环境的风险评估

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100782

Susana Lincoln , Piyali Chowdhury , Olivia L. Harrod , Sevvandi Jayakody , Karen Vanstaen , Meththika S. Vithanage , John K. Pinnegar

Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to the impacts of marine climate change due to the low coastal profile, which is densely populated with many rural areas dedicated to fishing and aquaculture. Motivated by this, this study aimed to compile and analyse the available evidence and identify steps to improve climate adaptation by undertaking an assessment of marine climate change risks for Sri Lanka. The stepwise approach consisted of a comprehensive literature review and synthesis of risks, followed by appraisal, validation and scoring by expert stakeholders. Here we present a summary of key findings regarding marine climate variables (temperature, sea-level rise, ocean circulation, salinity, ocean acidification, dissolved oxygen, storminess, precipitation and wind), and risks to marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. The most important biodiversity risks identified include decreasing plankton productivity; threats to sea turtles; changes in fish communities; increasing threats to coral reefs; changes to mangrove and seagrass habitats; shoreline erosion; and increasing risk of bio-invasions. Key risks to ecosystem services include declining fisheries; damage and disruption to critical infrastructure and services; threats to tourism; and loss of protective coastal habitats. We also identified important knowledge gaps and uncertainties involving lack of climate data and evidence of impacts. Finally, we provide recommendations regarding marine monitoring and research, and options to strengthen climate policies and climate adaptation in Sri Lanka.

由于沿海地势低，斯里兰卡人口密集，许多农村地区从事渔业和水产养殖，因此极易受到海洋气候变化的影响。受此推动，本研究旨在汇编和分析现有证据，并通过对斯里兰卡的海洋气候变化风险进行评估，确定改善气候适应的步骤。阶梯式方法包括全面的文献综述和风险综合，然后由专家利益相关者进行评估、验证和评分。在这里，我们总结了关于海洋气候变量（温度、海平面上升、海洋环流、盐度、海洋酸化、溶解氧、风暴、降水和风）以及海洋生物多样性和生态系统服务风险的主要发现。确定的最重要的生物多样性风险包括浮游生物生产力下降；对海龟的威胁；鱼类群落的变化；对珊瑚礁的威胁日益增加；红树林和海草生境的变化；海岸线侵蚀;生物入侵的风险也在增加。生态系统服务面临的主要风险包括渔业减少；对关键基础设施和服务的破坏和中断；对旅游业的威胁；海岸保护栖息地的丧失。我们还发现了重要的知识缺口和不确定性，包括缺乏气候数据和影响证据。最后，我们提供了有关海洋监测和研究的建议，以及加强斯里兰卡气候政策和气候适应的选择。

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引用次数: 0

Transdisciplinary Knowledge Production for Integrated Climate Risk Management: Application of a Framework in the Dutch Urbanized Delta 综合气候风险管理的跨学科知识生产：一个框架在荷兰城市化三角洲的应用

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100773

Seyedabdolhossein Mehvar , Anne Bruggen , Pradeep Murukannaiah , Catholijn Jonker , Zac Taylor , Tom Daamen

Climate change increasingly impacts the built environment through rising sea levels, intensifying heatwaves, and frequent extreme weather events, especially in low-lying, densely populated countries like the Netherlands. Despite growing urgency, current climate risk management strategies are rather individuated by firms, and siloed across sectors. A lack of shared, accessible knowledge on climate risks to real estate and infrastructure hinders coordinated, transparent, and integrated decision-making. This highlights the need for structured transdisciplinary approaches that foster collaboration between researchers and practitioners to co-produce knowledge and develop integrated adaptation solutions.

This article introduces a novel framework to facilitate transdisciplinary knowledge production for integrated real estate and infrastructure climate risk management. Using a mixed-method approach, the framework is developed through a literature review on transdisciplinary research and further evolved by incorporating practice-based empirical insights and collective experiential learning gained during its application within the Red&Blue (Real Estate Development and Building in Low Urban Environments) case study.

The framework comprises four interconnected phases: (1) knowledge elicitation through a three-layer stakeholder engagement and impact plan, (2) knowledge exploration by combining the institutionalized logics theory and AI-supported techniques, (3) knowledge integration, and (4) knowledge transformation.

Applying the framework to the Red&Blue case study reveals that effective transdisciplinary knowledge production requires not only a structured process but also an adaptive, and iterative approach. Key enablers include sustained stakeholders engagement, safe-space dialogue, conscious knowledge integration, and integrative leadership. These elements foster trust, improve communication, and support the co-creation of actionable and transferable knowledge to address complex climate risk and sustainability challenges in urbanized built environments in the Netherlands and beyond.

气候变化对建筑环境的影响越来越大，包括海平面上升、热浪加剧和极端天气事件频发，尤其是在荷兰等地势低洼、人口稠密的国家。尽管气候风险管理日益紧迫，但目前的气候风险管理战略因公司而异，且各部门相互孤立。缺乏关于房地产和基础设施面临的气候风险的共享、可获取的知识，阻碍了协调、透明和综合的决策。这突出表明需要结构化的跨学科方法，促进研究人员和实践者之间的合作，共同生产知识和开发综合适应解决方案。本文介绍了一个新的框架，以促进跨学科知识生产的综合房地产和基础设施气候风险管理。该框架采用混合方法，通过对跨学科研究的文献综述来开发，并通过将其在红&蓝（低城市环境中的房地产开发和建筑）案例研究中应用过程中获得的基于实践的经验见解和集体经验学习进一步发展。该框架包括四个相互关联的阶段：(1)通过三层利益相关者参与和影响计划获得知识；(2)结合制度化逻辑理论和人工智能支持技术进行知识探索；(3)知识整合；(4)知识转化。将该框架应用于Red&；Blue案例研究表明，有效的跨学科知识生产不仅需要一个结构化的过程，还需要一个自适应的、迭代的方法。关键的促成因素包括持续的利益相关者参与、安全空间对话、有意识的知识整合和综合领导。这些要素促进了信任，改善了沟通，并支持共同创造可操作和可转移的知识，以应对荷兰及其他地区城市化建筑环境中复杂的气候风险和可持续性挑战。

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