Climate Risk Management最新文献

Large-scale climate variability patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence the hydrology and hence affect the management of water resources in numerous regions around the globe. The presence of multiyear drought and wet periods is already challenging as these long, extreme, events tend to stress water resources systems much more than multiple, isolated, ones. This manuscript presents a variant of a hydrologically-driven approach to assess the performance of large-scale water resources systems in regions where the long-term persistence that characterizes the flow regime is likely to be affected by climate change. This approach comprises several steps including the construction of a large ensemble of hydrological projections which are bias-corrected in the frequency domain to account for the long-term persistence; the clustering of these projections based on hydrologic attributes to identify likely alterations of the flow regime; and the use of an optimization model to derive allocation policies tailored to identified alterations of the flow regime. The proposed approach is tested on the Senegal River basin which has experienced multiyear dry, normal, and wet periods in the past. The analysis of allocation policies highlights the relevance of climate-tailored policies in adapting to climate change, with climate tailored policies yielding moderate gains under the most extreme alterations, while they remain meaningful under more moderate ones.

The field of climate justice has been growing in relevance since its conception in 1997. This paper presents a comprehensive bibliometric and topic modelling analyses to examine the evolution and trajectory of the climate justice literature. We analyse 1,683 publications covering the period from 1997 to 2021, highlighting foundational works, influential authors, leading nations and institutions, and prevailing research topics within this field. We employ Latent Dirichlet Allocation to uncover latent research trends in the literature providing a crucial baseline for future scholarly endeavours and policy development in the realm of climate justice.

Our results show that the field of climate justice has grown exponentially from less than 5 papers annually between 1997 and 2005, to around 200 papers annually in recent years. This growth has seen a diversification of research themes with an increase in papers around the topics of health, vulnerability and adaptation, and policy and activism. There has been a consistent backdrop of publications around the topics of sustainable development and policy, and international relations and carbon emissions. Other prominent topics in the literature include education and food security, and human rights and Indigenous people. The field has moved from theoretical research to examining actual examples of climate injustices, with an increased diversification of topics.

Future research could usefully focus on exploring future generations and more-than-human entities; the integration of climate justice and climate activism with broader struggles for justice; re-thinking climate adaptation “success” and “effectiveness” through the lens of climate justice, and the ramifications of the Global Goal on Adaptation on climate justice led-approaches that are inclusive, build on human rights approaches, and extend the scale of adaptation analysis beyond the local. It is imperative to prioritise addressing the climate justice needs of those most affected by climate change, transcending national borders, generational gaps, cultural differences, and even the well-being of various species. Such a holistic approach will help inform and refine global climate policy and action.

Early warning systems in disasters are crucial for life preservation and loss mitigation, endorsed globally by various UN agencies, governments, and disaster researchers. However, the social aspects pose significant challenges to the success of early warning. Using survey data from Sanya, a coastal city in China, our study explores the relationship between early warning services and community engagement. The primary warning channels are social media (SMS and WeChat), the Internet, and TV. These mediums, along with traditional and mass media, foster higher community engagement, like volunteer service and disaster risk reduction efforts. Satisfaction with warning service mediates these connections. Interestingly, families with chronic disease members are more likely to engage in community activities and utilize the Internet and social media for warnings. Notably, different patterns emerge when comparing families with and without chronic disease members, especially regarding Internet and social media usage. This study enhances our understanding of public adaptation to disaster warnings and provides insight for early warning services in the face of increasing climate change impacts and meteorological disasters.

Nepal has more than a decade of experience in formulating and implementing climate change policies, plans, frameworks, and institutional mechanisms for local adaptation. Drawing upon this experience, this research aims to elucidate the existing policies, institutional commitments and capacity that underpin local adaptation. Furthermore, it seeks to delineate the mechanism through which these commitments are translated into action fostering empowerment of poor and vulnerable communities for locally led adaptation (LLA). Our research involved a comprehensive review of major policies and legal and procedural documents related to climate change adaptation. We analyzed Local Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA), carried out in-depth interviews with frontline actors and a participant observation and focus group discussions with LAPA communities. The research features that despite a strong policy commitment, adaptation in Nepal is struggling with institutional barriers, contested interest between key authorities, limited capacity, and unequal distribution of resources to support LLA. The LAPA analysis shows the priorities and investment plans are mostly intended to continue business as usual practices addressing bio-physical and natural hazards rather than properly understanding and addressing underlying, pre-existing, and structural causes of vulnerabilities. Notwithstanding the established evidence about differential impacts of climate change, the response mechanisms have exhibited limited realization of this knowledge. Future trajectory of LLA in Nepal hinges on the proactive efforts of the government to reform institutional and fund flow mechanisms, capacity, commitment, and a changing mindset for the devolution of decision making at the local level and making a substantial progress in climate financing.

Climate change and natural hazards present a major risk to individuals and communities; however, the current quantitative risk assessment methodologies struggle to capture the wider consequences that arise from society’s complex interconnections. These complex interconnections exist due to the number of mutually dependent systems and mean that impacts on one system can be felt in another. These cascading impacts present a major challenge to climate risk assessments. Climate risk assessments often consider a range of “wellbeing” or “value” domains; for example, in New Zealand the five wellbeing domains are Natural Environment, Human, Economic, Built Environment, and Governance. Existing assessments have sought to characterize the risk to each domain, but do not quantitatively or rigorously consider the interplay between the domains. For example, how does the risk to the human domain change as a result of the impacts to the built environment? This interplay and the ensuing cascading impacts could substantially modify the assessed risk. The change could potentially alter the prioritization and subsequent adaptation plans. In this paper, we show that considering cascading impacts not only increases the magnitude of risk but can shift the prioritization. This highlights the importance of capturing cascading impacts for effective adaptation to climate change.

Factors such as human activity and climate change are contributing to an increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires. This problem has challenged society’s knowledge, response capacity, and resilience, revealing its inadequacy to cope with the new wildfire regime characterized by extreme wildfire events (EWE). Policies on wildfire management mainly focus on suppression and managing emergencies, which may be insufficient to reduce EWE’s incidence and cope with its impact. Consequently, there is a lack of tools to support decision-making in wildfire management in other important aspects, such as prevention and protection. This study examines global wildfire policies specifically in the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain), including cross-border policies. A GIS-based tool to evaluate different normal and extreme wildfire management policies is applied to a cross-border case study, paying attention to the impact on critical land-based transport systems. A relevant outcome of the tool application is that suppression must be complemented with other wildfire management strategies in the analyzed area. The gained insights can help stakeholders to improve decision-making in wildfire management to successfully address EWE.

The interplay of contaminated sites, climate change, and disadvantaged communities are a growing concern worldwide. Worsening extreme events may result in accidental contaminant releases from sites and waste facilities that may impact nearby communities. If such communities are already suffering from environmental, economic, health, or social burdens, they may face disproportionate impacts. Equitable resilience planning to address effects of extreme events requires information on where the impacts may be, when they may occur, and who might be impacted. Because resources are often scarce for these communities, conducting detailed modeling may be cost-prohibitive. By considering indicators for four sources of vulnerability (changing extreme heat conditions, contaminated sites, contaminant transport via wind, and population sensitivities) in one holistic framework, we provide a scientifically robust approach that can assist planners with prioritizing resources and actions. These indicators can serve as screening measures to identify communities that may be impacted most and isolate the reasons for these impacts. Through a transdisciplinary case study conducted in Maricopa County (Arizona, USA), we demonstrate how the framework and geospatial indicators can be applied to inform plans for preparedness, response, and recovery from the effects of extreme heat on contaminated sites and nearby populations. The indicators employed in this demonstration can be applied to other locations with contaminated sites to build community resilience to future climate impacts.

Urban green space (UGS) offers users multiple ecosystem services and amenities. This study investigated whether residents used UGS visitation in summer as a sustainable measure to tackle hot weather and associated climate-change impacts in humid-subtropical Hong Kong. Attributes of the indoor residential environment, seldom examined in park-visitation studies, were evaluated as push factors to visit UGS through a push–pull theoretical framework. A questionnaire survey of 483 respondents targeted urban park users. The results indicated that UGS visit frequency and stay duration were relatively low in hot summer. Ordinal multiple regression showed that indoor living conditions, residence location, living routine, and habit and personal health impacts were significantly correlated with UGS visits. Interdependence between push and pull factors was detected, demonstrating that intrinsic UGS environmental conditions could constrain UGS visits despite the motivations of push factors. The results indicated the need to improve the microclimate-regulating function in UGS. It could be achieved mainly by optimizing the nature-based design to promote UGS as an adaptive measure to combat the thermal stress brought by climate change. The findings yielded hints to shape visiting habits and suggestions to improve UGS management.

The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation is a key process that embeds adaptation in all sectors’ decision-making processes. In order to achieve successful adaptation, we need a socio-ecological transformation that is enabled by robust decision-making which prioritises adaptation. However, measuring the status of adaptation mainstreaming is quite challenging, and few studies have elucidated differences in adaptation mainstreaming among sectors; we therefore propose an assessment framework that does so. Three dimensions illustrating the pathways of adaptation mainstreaming are suggested: awareness, adaptation readiness and advanced implementation. We identify barriers, opportunities and differences among the three sectors of biodiversity conservation, forest management and water management in South Korea. Our results uncover different pathways to mainstreaming adaptation. Levels of awareness and readiness in relation to risk information, institutional arrangements and the active practical implementation of adaptation measures were found to be highest in the water management sector. In the biodiversity conservation sector, levels of active perception, preparation and implementation of adaptation measures in national sectoral policies were found to be relatively low. We also identify the most common barriers and required resources to mainstreaming adaptation and suggest priority entry points for each sector, including the abundant provision of sector-specific risk information and adoption guideline, awareness-raising on national climate change risk, improvements on organizational support, and reinforcing and the preparation of in-house monitoring and evaluation systems. Overall, this study offers insights into the measurement of adaptation mainstreaming by assessing pathways to successful adaptation. As assessing gaps and progress in adaptation is essential for the facilitation of transformational change, it is critical to examine long-term mainstreaming across diverse sectors.