Climate Risk Management最新文献_第7页

Environmental justice lens as a necessity and an opportunity in relocation: The case of the Noordwaard and the Eferding Basin 环境正义作为搬迁的必要性和机遇：以诺德沃德和埃弗丁盆地为例

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100740

Chloé ten Brink , Idowu Ajibade , Caroline Zickgraf

Environmental relocation presents a form of risk management that requires organized movement of communities but are complex to carry out and can have inequitable results. A careful examination of the ethical dimensions of relocation from planning to implementation to outcomes offers an avenue for understanding and addressing potential injustices. Using a deductive environmental justice framework, we analyzed two compensation-based relocations, also understood as buyouts: the 2013 Danube flood relocation in Austria’s Eferding Basin and the Noordwaard de-poldering in the Netherlands’ Room for the River program. We combined document analysis (n = 62) and semi-structured interviews (n = 20) to assess justice concerns, focusing on distributive, procedural, and ecological dimensions. Distributive justice was primarily addressed through financial compensation, offering 100 % market value in the Noordwaard and 80 % in the Eferding Basin, but non-monetary considerations were relatively neglected. Procedural justice, particularly transparency and citizen participation, were insufficient. Considerations of ecological justice were absent in the Eferding Basin but the Noordwaard’s use of nature-based solutions and prioritization of spatial quality led to multiple environmental benefits. Overall, this paper argues that justice should not be viewed simply as a criterion to be fulfilled, but rather as a guiding principle for addressing the broader, short and long-term impacts, and well-being related to relocation. By adopting this perspective, justice can be understood as an opportunity for positive transformation, allowing environmental relocation to be framed as a process with the potential for meaningful, beneficial change rather than solely a response to current or future flood risk.

环境重新安置是一种风险管理形式，需要有组织的社区移动，但执行起来很复杂，可能产生不公平的结果。从规划到实施再到结果，仔细检查搬迁的道德层面，为理解和解决潜在的不公正提供了途径。使用演绎环境正义框架，我们分析了两个基于补偿的搬迁，也被理解为买断：2013年奥地利埃费丁盆地的多瑙河洪水搬迁和荷兰河流空间计划的北向去圩田。我们结合文献分析（n = 62）和半结构化访谈（n = 20）来评估司法问题，重点关注分配、程序和生态维度。分配公平主要通过经济补偿来解决，在noordward提供100%的市场价值，在Eferding盆地提供80%的市场价值，但非货币考虑相对被忽视。程序公正，特别是透明度和公民参与是不够的。Eferding盆地缺乏对生态正义的考虑，但noordward使用基于自然的解决方案和空间质量的优先级带来了多重环境效益。总体而言，本文认为，公正不应被简单地视为一项需要实现的标准，而应被视为一项指导原则，以解决与搬迁有关的更广泛、短期和长期影响以及福祉。通过采用这种观点，正义可以被理解为一个积极转变的机会，使环境重新安置成为一个有可能产生有意义的有益变化的过程，而不仅仅是对当前或未来洪水风险的回应。

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引用次数: 0

Communicating the risk of erosion: the effects of map-based communication on risk perception and affect 传达侵蚀风险：基于地图的沟通对风险感知和影响的影响

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100738

Naud Aude , Navarro Oscar , Chotard Manon , Juigner Martin , Robin Marc , Chadenas Céline , Fleury-Bahi Ghozlane

This study firstly aims to understand the impacts of map representations of coastal erosion on risk perception and affects of lay citizens. Secondly, it aims to study the effect of differing design of cartographic features on observation and interpretation of the message conveyed by different maps. Seven maps were presented to the participants (N = 50), varying according endogenous (abstraction, regalian cartridge) and exogenous characteristics (background, colours). A questionnaire interrogated risk perception and affect before and after observation, while eye-tracking data were recorded during the observation of each map. This experiment shows that communicating erosion risk by maps reduces perceived knowledge of risk but also reduces fear of the risk. The abstraction level significantly impacts observation patterns: correlation maps seem to guide visual attention in a more relevant way and to convey the message more clearly and effectively than other types of maps. But there is no influence of the other characteristics even if interviews show that colours seem to influence the message interpretation.

本研究首先旨在了解海岸侵蚀地图表征对非专业公民风险感知和影响的影响。其次，研究不同地图学特征的设计对观察和解读不同地图所传达信息的影响。向参与者（N = 50）展示了七张地图，根据内源性（抽象，帝王墨盒）和外源性特征（背景，颜色）而变化。通过问卷调查，对观察前后的风险感知和影响进行调查，同时在观察每张地图的过程中记录眼动数据。这个实验表明，通过地图传达侵蚀风险减少了对风险的认知，但也减少了对风险的恐惧。抽象水平显著影响观察模式：相关性图似乎以一种更相关的方式引导视觉注意力，并且比其他类型的图更清晰有效地传达信息。但是，即使采访显示颜色似乎影响了信息的解释，其他特征也没有影响。

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引用次数: 0

Climate change risk perception as a catalyst for adaptive effect of ICT: The case in rural Eastern China 气候变化风险认知对信息通信技术适应效应的促进作用：以中国东部农村为例

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100697

Yu Yang , Yang Zhang , Jiajun Zhou , Yang Liu , Linshan Lin , Shijia Kang , Gaofei Yang , Johannes Sauer

Understanding the mechanisms by which technological advancements like ICT influence adaptive actions is crucial for smallholder farmers confronting climate change. This study analyzes data from rural areas in China’s Yangtze River Delta to examine how ICT affects farmers’ adaptive investments. The findings reveal that ICT does not directly increase adaptive investments among smallholders. Instead, it indirectly influences these investments by enhancing farmers’ perceptions of climate risks, thereby addressing debates over ICT’s effectiveness in promoting adaptive actions. By categorizing smallholder farmers’ climate change risk perceptions into sixteen distinct subtypes and measuring them, we provide a understanding how ICT elevates risk awareness. This work extends the model of private proactive adaptation to climate change (MPPACC) by demonstrating that technological advancements influence climate change risk perception, expanding its scope from social discourse to include objective adaptive capacity. Practically, these findings underscore the critical role of risk perception in devising effective adaptation policies. By considering risk perception as a key factor in ICT policy formulation, policymakers can effectively enhance smallholders’ adaptive actions.

了解信息通信技术等技术进步影响适应性行动的机制对于小农应对气候变化至关重要。本研究分析了中国长三角农村地区的数据，以检验信息通信技术如何影响农民的适应性投资。研究结果表明，信息通信技术并没有直接增加小农的适应性投资。相反，它通过提高农民对气候风险的认识，从而间接影响这些投资，从而解决了关于信息通信技术在促进适应行动方面有效性的争论。通过将小农的气候变化风险感知分为16个不同的亚型并进行测量，我们了解了ICT如何提高风险意识。本研究通过证明技术进步影响气候变化风险感知，扩展了私人主动适应气候变化（MPPACC）模型，将其范围从社会话语扩展到包括客观适应能力。实际上，这些发现强调了风险感知在制定有效的适应政策中的关键作用。通过将风险认知作为信息通信技术政策制定的关键因素，政策制定者可以有效地提高小农的适应性行动。

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引用次数: 0

From climate risk to action: Analysing adaptation decision robustness under uncertainty 从气候风险到行动：不确定性下的适应决策稳健性分析

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100751

Cecina Babich Morrow , Laura Dawkins , Francesca Pianosi , Dennis Prangle , Dan Bernie

Climate adaptation decisions are made under great uncertainty, arising from uncertainties about both the level of climate risk and the attributes of decision options. Decision-makers must understand how uncertainties in the input factors of risk assessment and decision models affect the ultimate adaptation decision, and whether the modelling yields a robust decision, i.e. one that is consistently identified as optimal over a range of uncertain input factors. Here, we present a framework for analysing the robustness of climate adaptation decisions. We apply a Bayesian Decision Analysis framework to determine the optimal output decision in a region based on both climate risk and decision-related attributes. Then, we present an approach for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the optimal adaptation decision itself to assess robustness and understand which input factors most influence the decision in a particular region. We demonstrate this framework on an idealised example of adaptation decision-making to mitigate the risk of heat-stress on outdoor physical working capacity in the UK. In this application, we find that regions with high uncertainty in climate risk can still exhibit greater robustness in the optimal decision, and the decision is often more sensitive to variations in decision-related attributes rather than risk-related attributes. Previous research often stops short at assessing uncertainty and sensitivity in climate risk alone. These results highlight the necessity of conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the ultimate decision output itself in order to understand what factors drive decision robustness.

由于气候风险水平和决策选择属性的不确定性，气候适应决策是在很大的不确定性下做出的。决策者必须了解风险评估和决策模型的输入因素的不确定性如何影响最终的适应决策，以及建模是否产生稳健决策，即在一系列不确定的输入因素中始终被确定为最优决策。在这里，我们提出了一个框架来分析气候适应决策的稳健性。我们应用贝叶斯决策分析框架，在气候风险和决策相关属性的基础上确定一个地区的最优产出决策。然后，我们提出了一种对最优适应决策本身进行全局不确定性和敏感性分析的方法，以评估鲁棒性并了解哪些输入因素对特定区域的决策影响最大。我们在一个理想化的适应决策的例子上展示了这个框架，以减轻英国户外体力工作能力的热应激风险。在此应用中，我们发现气候风险不确定性较高的地区在最优决策中仍然表现出更强的鲁棒性，并且决策往往对决策相关属性的变化比风险相关属性的变化更敏感。以往的研究往往在评估气候风险的不确定性和敏感性方面止步不前。这些结果强调了对最终决策输出本身进行不确定性和敏感性分析的必要性，以便了解驱动决策鲁棒性的因素。

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引用次数: 0

Adaptive capacity management in municipalities in the Semiarid region of Brazil: Application of a composite index 巴西半干旱地区市政当局的适应性能力管理：综合指数的应用

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696

Yonara Claudia dos Santos , Zoraide Souza Pessoa

The balance between urban growth and global environmental and climate challenges, as well as their local implications, is a fundamental contemporary concern, and often neglected in government agendas at a local scale. The integration of these issues into urban and territorial planning is still incipient in the Brazilian context, especially in smaller cities and in regions such as the Semiarid region of Brazil, where socioeconomic challenges are particularly sensitive to climate impacts. This study diagnoses the adaptive capacity of local management in the Brazilian Semiarid region, revealing high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity that reflect inadequate integration of socio-environmental and climatic issues, as assessed through the Adaptive Capacity Management Index (IGCA). The method used is based on data from the Municipal Basic Information Survey (Munic/IBGE) and operates on a scale from 0 to 1, segmented into five strata corresponding to classification levels ranging from classification levels ranging from “very low” to “very high”. The “very high” stratum indicates a more critical scenario in terms of threats and vulnerabilities, while the “very low” stratum indicates deficiencies in risk management and adaptive capacity. IGCA scores ranged from 0.137 to 0.442, with 76% of municipalities classified as having low adaptive capacity. The operationalization is conducted through weighted variables and the additive approach of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method using GIS software to map threats, vulnerabilities and adaptive management measures to climate change. The results obtained in 21 municipalities in the Piancó-Piranhas-Açu River basin, located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil, reveal a high exposure to climate threats, particularly in relation to social vulnerability. This vulnerability is evident not only in the studied municipalities but likely throughout the region. Given this scenario of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, significant efforts are needed to improve the adaptation and resilience capacity of these regions, including a more integrated approach to climate risk management, strengthening local governance and raising awareness of the importance of integrating climate and environmental issues in government policies.

城市发展与全球环境和气候挑战之间的平衡，以及它们对地方的影响，是当代的一个基本问题，但在地方层面的政府议程中往往被忽视。在巴西，将这些问题纳入城市和领土规划仍处于起步阶段，特别是在巴西的小城市和半干旱地区，这些地区的社会经济挑战对气候影响特别敏感。本研究诊断了巴西半干旱区当地管理的适应能力，揭示了通过适应能力管理指数（IGCA）评估的高脆弱性和低适应能力，反映了社会环境和气候问题的不充分整合。所使用的方法基于市政基本信息调查（Munic/IBGE）的数据，并按照从0到1的等级进行操作，分为五个层，对应从“非常低”到“非常高”的分类级别。“非常高”的层次表明在威胁和脆弱性方面的情况更为严重，而“非常低”的层次表明在风险管理和适应能力方面存在缺陷。IGCA得分从0.137到0.442不等，76%的城市被列为低适应能力。利用GIS软件对气候变化威胁、脆弱性和适应性管理措施进行映射，通过加权变量和多准则决策（MCDM）方法的加性方法进行操作。在巴西东北部北巴西大州Piancó-Piranhas-Açu河流域的21个城市获得的结果显示，该地区极易受到气候威胁，特别是在社会脆弱性方面。这种脆弱性不仅在所研究的城市很明显，而且可能在整个区域都很明显。鉴于这种高脆弱性和低适应能力的情景，需要付出巨大努力来提高这些地区的适应和恢复能力，包括采取更综合的气候风险管理方法，加强地方治理，提高将气候和环境问题纳入政府政策的重要性意识。

{"title":"Adaptive capacity management in municipalities in the Semiarid region of Brazil: Application of a composite index","authors":"Yonara Claudia dos Santos , Zoraide Souza Pessoa","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The balance between urban growth and global environmental and climate challenges, as well as their local implications, is a fundamental contemporary concern, and often neglected in government agendas at a local scale. The integration of these issues into urban and territorial planning is still incipient in the Brazilian context, especially in smaller cities and in regions such as the Semiarid region of Brazil, where socioeconomic challenges are particularly sensitive to climate impacts. This study diagnoses the adaptive capacity of local management in the Brazilian Semiarid region, revealing high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity that reflect inadequate integration of socio-environmental and climatic issues, as assessed through the Adaptive Capacity Management Index (IGCA). The method used is based on data from the Municipal Basic Information Survey (Munic/IBGE) and operates on a scale from 0 to 1, segmented into five strata corresponding to classification levels ranging from classification levels ranging from “very low” to “very high”. The “very high” stratum indicates a more critical scenario in terms of threats and vulnerabilities, while the “very low” stratum indicates deficiencies in risk management and adaptive capacity. IGCA scores ranged from 0.137 to 0.442, with 76% of municipalities classified as having low adaptive capacity. The operationalization is conducted through weighted variables and the additive approach of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method using GIS software to map threats, vulnerabilities and adaptive management measures to climate change. The results obtained in 21 municipalities in the Piancó-Piranhas-Açu River basin, located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil, reveal a high exposure to climate threats, particularly in relation to social vulnerability. This vulnerability is evident not only in the studied municipalities but likely throughout the region. Given this scenario of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, significant efforts are needed to improve the adaptation and resilience capacity of these regions, including a more integrated approach to climate risk management, strengthening local governance and raising awareness of the importance of integrating climate and environmental issues in government policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100696"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The role of remittances in building resilience through adaptive capacities amid environmental and socioeconomic vulnerabilities: A systematic literature review 汇款在环境和社会经济脆弱性中通过适应能力建设复原力的作用：系统文献综述

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100769

Ikram Ullah , Niraj Prakash Joshi , Luni Piya

This systematic review examines how financial and social remittances contribute to resilience under environmental and socioeconomic stress by synthesizing 79 peer-reviewed studies published between 2002 and 2025. Guided by a Disaster Resilience Integrated Framework for Transformation (DRIFT)-informed, stage-based framework, we analyze resilience before, during, and after disasters, linking each phase to capacities such as consumption smoothing, livelihood diversification, asset-based adaptation, social capital, and institutional empowerment. Remittance-resilience research expanded rapidly after 2020, with most studies focusing on Asia and Africa and fewer in Latin America, Europe, and Pacific Small Island Developing States. Financial remittances primarily support immediate stabilization and asset repair, whereas social remittances strengthen skills, networks, risk awareness, and collective action that underpin longer-term adjustment. Regional patterns differ: Asian cases emphasize consumption smoothing and housing upgrades, while African studies highlight diversification and institutional pathways. Our review contributes by mapping remittance roles across household, community, and system levels; linking micro-level mechanisms to governance and market conditions; and offering a comparative regional synthesis. Key constraints include dependency risks, unequal access by gender and income, and market or institutional volatility. Policy priorities include integrating remittances into national adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies, reducing transfer costs through digital rails, leveraging diaspora co-financing, and strengthening financial and digital literacy to enhance inclusive, shock-responsive resilience aligned with Sustainable Development Goals 11, 13, and 16.

本系统综述通过综合2002年至2025年间发表的79项同行评议研究，考察了金融和社会汇款如何促进环境和社会经济压力下的复原力。在灾害复原力转型综合框架（DRIFT）的指导下，我们分析了灾前、灾中和灾后的复原力，并将每个阶段与消费平滑、生计多样化、基于资产的适应、社会资本和机构赋权等能力联系起来。2020年后，对汇款复原力的研究迅速扩大，大多数研究集中在亚洲和非洲，对拉丁美洲、欧洲和太平洋小岛屿发展中国家的研究较少。金融汇款主要支持即时稳定和资产修复，而社会汇款则加强技能、网络、风险意识和集体行动，为长期调整奠定基础。区域模式不同：亚洲案例强调消费平滑和住房升级，而非洲研究强调多样化和制度路径。我们的评估通过映射汇款在家庭、社区和系统层面的作用做出了贡献；将微观层面的机制与治理和市场条件联系起来；并提供了一个比较的区域综合。主要制约因素包括依赖风险、性别和收入不平等以及市场或体制波动。政策重点包括将汇款纳入国家适应和减少灾害风险战略，通过数字轨道降低转移成本，利用侨民共同融资，加强金融和数字素养，以增强符合可持续发展目标11、13和16的包容性、抗冲击能力。

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引用次数: 0

Factors affecting the application of protective measures before flood occurrence among local communities in Iran 影响伊朗当地社区在洪水发生前采取保护措施的因素

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100730

Esmaiel Askari , Moslem Savari , Marzieh Rezaei

Floods rank among the most destructive natural hazards, inflicting extensive damage on rural areas by compromising infrastructure, destroying crops, and undermining livelihoods. Beyond the immediate economic losses, such events often trigger rural outmigration and erode social cohesion. Effective flood prevention strategies are therefore critical and can be advanced through public awareness campaigns, the reinforcement of social capital, the development of flood-resilient infrastructure, and the implementation of integrated crisis management plans. Despite the importance of these measures, previous research has largely concentrated on assessing community vulnerability, with limited attention given to proactive protective factors. Addressing this gap, the present study aims to identify the determinants influencing the adoption of protective measures among rural communities in Iran prior to flood events. The statistical population of this study comprised all rural households in Shushtar County, located in Khuzestan Province, southwest Iran. A sample of 353 rural household heads was selected using the Krejcie and Morgan table, applying a multi-stage stratified sampling method to ensure representation across different villages. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire, the validity of which was confirmed by a panel of subject matter experts, while reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient. Data analysis was conducted in two phases—descriptive and inferential statistics—using SPSS and SmartPLS software. The findings demonstrated that the variables of psychological distance, social media use, place attachment, flood experience, social capital, and flood risk perception had significant and positive effects on protective behaviors prior to flooding. Collectively, these variables accounted for 76.3% of the variance in protective measures. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers seeking to enhance the resilience and safety of rural communities in flood-prone regions. By proactively addressing flood risks, such measures can contribute to the sustainability of rural livelihoods and the strengthening of local resilience.

洪水是最具破坏性的自然灾害之一，通过破坏基础设施、摧毁作物和破坏生计，对农村地区造成广泛破坏。除了直接的经济损失外，这类事件往往引发农村人口外流，侵蚀社会凝聚力。因此，有效的防洪战略至关重要，可以通过提高公众意识、加强社会资本、发展抗洪基础设施以及实施综合危机管理计划来推进。尽管这些措施很重要，但以前的研究主要集中在评估社区脆弱性上，对主动保护因素的关注有限。为了解决这一差距，本研究旨在确定在洪水事件发生之前影响伊朗农村社区采取保护措施的决定因素。本研究的统计人口包括位于伊朗西南部胡齐斯坦省Shushtar县的所有农村家庭。采用Krejcie和Morgan表选取了353个农村户主样本，采用多阶段分层抽样方法，以确保不同村庄的代表性。数据通过结构化问卷收集，其有效性由主题专家小组确认，而可靠性则使用Cronbach 's alpha系数进行评估。使用SPSS和SmartPLS软件进行数据分析，分为描述性统计和推断性统计两个阶段。研究结果表明，心理距离、社交媒体使用、地方依恋、洪水经历、社会资本和洪水风险感知对洪水前保护行为有显著的正向影响。总的来说，这些变量占保护措施方差的76.3%。这些发现为寻求提高洪水易发地区农村社区的抗灾能力和安全性的政策制定者提供了重要的见解。通过积极应对洪水风险，这些措施有助于农村生计的可持续性和加强当地的抵御能力。

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引用次数: 0

Does livelihood risk matter in disaster preparedness? Insights from flood risk areas of rural China 生计风险在备灾中重要吗？来自中国农村洪涝风险地区的洞察

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100705

Wei Liu , Pengfei Qi , Jie Xu , Marcus Feldman , Dingde Xu

Farmers in flood-risk areas are exposed to disruptions in their daily production and livelihood operations. However, disaster preparedness can reduce risk and minimize household losses, thereby increasing livelihood sustainability for farming families. Although sustainable livelihoods and disaster preparedness of farmers have been categorized, few studies have explored the correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness. This study examines survey data from 540 farming family households in the three counties Gaoxian, Jiajiang, and Yuechi, which are affected by floods. We consider four distinct types of livelihood risks faced by farmers and three categories of disaster preparedness in the study area and construct a Tobit regression model to test the correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness. The results show (1) a significant correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness among farmers; (2) health risk is positively correlated with farmers’ physical preparedness; (3) social risk is negatively correlated with farmers’ physical, knowledge and skills, and overall disaster preparedness; and (4) financial risk is negatively correlated with farmers’ overall disaster preparedness. Our findings may assist in disaster preparedness and in policy formulation pertaining to flood risk management.

洪水危险地区的农民的日常生产和生计活动受到干扰。然而，备灾可以减少风险，最大限度地减少家庭损失，从而提高农民家庭生计的可持续性。虽然可持续生计与农民备灾已被分类，但很少有研究探讨生计风险与备灾之间的相关性。本研究以高县、嘉江、岳池三县受洪水影响的540户农户为调查对象。考虑研究区农民面临的四种不同类型的生计风险和三种不同类型的备灾，构建Tobit回归模型检验生计风险与备灾之间的相关性。结果表明：(1)农户生计风险与备灾之间存在显著相关；(2)健康风险与农民身体准备程度呈正相关；(3)社会风险与农民身体素质、知识技能和整体备灾能力呈负相关；(4)财务风险与农户整体备灾能力呈负相关。我们的研究结果可能有助于灾害准备和与洪水风险管理有关的政策制定。

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引用次数: 0

Identifying summer energy poverty and public health risks in a temperate climate 确定夏季能源贫困和温带气候下的公共卫生风险

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698

Zhiting Chen , Kimberley Clare O’Sullivan , Rachel Kowalchuk Dohig , Nevil Pierse , Terence Jiang , Mylène Riva , Runa Das

Understanding the health risks associated with indoor overheating and the impacts of cooling energy poverty during summer is becoming increasingly urgent as anthropogenic climate change intensifies heatwave events in many places. We report on results from a cross-sectional postal survey undertaken in Summer 2021/2022, conducted in five regions of New Zealand that typically experience some of the highest temperatures nationally. The study revealed that energy poverty is significant issue during summer, with 43% of the respondents identifying cost as a cooling restriction. Indoor overheating commonly affected the health and wellbeing of participants, with 63% reporting adverse health outcomes. Households citing cost as a cooling restriction were significantly more likely to report adverse health outcomes. Renters and indigenous Māori households were disproportionately affected by indoor overheating and the associated health and energy inequities. These findings highlight the growing health risks from indoor heat exposure in warming climatesparticularly in temperate countries like New Zealand, where inhabitants and infrastructure are not adequately prepared to handle heat-related risks. Relying solely on energy-intensive active cooling exacerbates energy poverty and injustice, increasing residential energy demand. Policy interventions should focus on promoting passive, energy-efficient, and sustainable cooling strategies to protect vulnerable populations from heat-related health disparities.

随着人为气候变化加剧了许多地方的热浪事件，了解与室内过热和夏季制冷能源匮乏相关的健康风险变得越来越紧迫。我们报告了2021/2022年夏季进行的一项横断面邮政调查的结果，该调查在新西兰的五个地区进行，这些地区通常是全国气温最高的地区。研究显示，能源匮乏是夏季的一个重要问题，43%的受访者认为成本是制冷的限制因素。室内过热通常会影响参与者的健康和福祉，63%的人报告了不利的健康结果。将成本作为制冷限制因素的家庭更有可能报告不利的健康后果。租房者和土著Māori家庭不成比例地受到室内过热以及相关的健康和能源不平等的影响。这些发现突出表明，在气候变暖的情况下，室内热暴露对健康的危害越来越大，尤其是在像新西兰这样的温带国家，那里的居民和基础设施没有充分准备好应对与热有关的风险。仅仅依靠能源密集型主动冷却加剧了能源贫困和不公平，增加了住宅能源需求。政策干预应侧重于促进被动、节能和可持续的制冷战略，以保护弱势群体免受与热有关的健康差异的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Identifying transformative decisions: A dual approach to adaptation pathways design using forward-exploration and backcasting 识别变革性决策：采用前向探索和反向预测设计适应路径的双重方法

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100716

Noor ten Harmsen van der Beek , Renske de Winter , Esther van Baaren , Ferdinand Diermanse , Arno Nolte , Marjolijn Haasnoot

Adaptation is needed to keep deltas and coastal zones liveable under changing climatic and socio-economic conditions. To date, adaptation is mostly small scale with incremental adaptation measures, while in some areas more fundamental transformative decisions are required in the future, such as changing objectives and land use. Here, we introduce an adaptation pathways method that uses forward-exploration and backcasting to study the impact of fundamental decisions on the solution space. For this, we extend the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP) approach and refer to this as DAPP-Δ (DAPP-delta) with Δ representing the fundamental decisions. Following the traditional DAPP approach, we explore alternative sequences of adaptation measures to continue to achieve objectives under changing conditions. New to the method is the backcasting of critical implementation paths from different envisioned future states, including changes in land use. Additionally, we identify synergies and conflicts between the forward-looking pathways and backcasting implementation paths. We use the southwest of the Netherlands as an illustrative case study. In this region, multiple adaptation tipping points are projected due to sea-level rise and economic changes, while simultaneously large-scale investments in aging infrastructure are expected. The results show that the DAPP-Δ method a) helps to identify pivotal adaptation decisions that goes beyond incremental adaptation and includes transformative decisions; b) effectively reveals the risk of maladaptation; and c) illustrates the necessity to include multiple changes in the analysis, as they together determine investments in the area and with that the solution space.

为了在不断变化的气候和社会经济条件下保持三角洲和沿海地区的宜居性，需要采取适应措施。到目前为止，适应主要是小规模的、渐进的适应措施，而在一些领域，未来需要更根本的变革决策，如改变目标和土地利用。在此，我们引入了一种适应路径方法，该方法使用正向探索和反向推算来研究基本决策对解空间的影响。为此，我们扩展了动态自适应路径规划（DAPP）方法，并将其称为DAPP-Δ （DAPP-delta），其中Δ表示基本决策。在传统DAPP方法的基础上，我们探索了适应措施的替代序列，以在不断变化的条件下继续实现目标。该方法的新特点是回溯不同设想的未来状态的关键实施路径，包括土地利用的变化。此外，我们还确定了前瞻性路径和回溯实施路径之间的协同作用和冲突。我们使用荷兰西南部作为一个说明性的案例研究。在该地区，由于海平面上升和经济变化，预计将出现多个适应临界点，同时预计将对老化的基础设施进行大规模投资。结果表明，DAPP-Δ方法a)有助于识别超越增量适应的关键适应决策，包括变革性决策；B)有效地揭示不适应的风险；c)说明了在分析中包含多个变更的必要性，因为它们共同决定了在该领域的投资以及解决方案空间。

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