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The politics of local climate risk management – A comparison of risk logic in the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden 地方气候风险管理政治--荷兰、挪威和瑞典的风险逻辑比较
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100626
Cathrine Witnes Karlson, Claudia Morsut, Ole Andreas Hegland Engen

Drawing on the securitisation and riskification of climate change literature, this paper investigates local governments’ climate risk management following a comparative analysis of three cases in the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. The comparative analysis reveals how unwanted consequences of climate change are translated into climate risks, identifying the actors involved in these translations. The analysis then determines the means through which the translations occur, following a risk logic that underpins a particular governmental response to climate change. The findings of this analysis have been contrasted in terms of effects and side effects of the risk logic, showing that the three local cases follow a similar pattern. This paper contributes to understanding the challenges of climate risk management in terms of fortifying existing risk practices, expert-led responses with limited citizen involvement, and long-term societal engineering.

本文借鉴气候变化安全化和风险化的文献,通过对荷兰、挪威和瑞典三个案例的比较分析,研究了地方政府的气候风险管理。比较分析揭示了气候变化的不良后果是如何转化为气候风险的,并确定了参与这些转化的行动者。然后,分析确定了转化发生的手段,即政府应对气候变化的特定风险逻辑。分析结果在风险逻辑的效果和副作用方面进行了对比,表明三个地方案例遵循类似的模式。本文有助于理解气候风险管理在以下方面面临的挑战:强化现有的风险做法、由专家主导、公民参与有限的应对措施以及长期的社会工程。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the economic and climate adaptation benefits of land conservation strategies in urban coastal regions of the U.S. and China 评估中美城市沿海地区土地保护战略的经济和气候适应效益
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100632
Longfeng Wu , Seung Kyum Kim

Land conservation has been recognized as a multifunctional adaptive strategy to tackle climate change as it includes the ability to mitigate risk and enhance biodiversity. However, limited empirical studies focus on the climatic adaptive functions of land conservation. Employing various geospatial and statistical techniques, including remote sensing, logistic regression, and landscape metrics, we investigate the effects of land conservation’s spatial characteristics. These characteristics affect the functional efficacy of climate adaptation in urban coastal regions, influencing regional economic vitality in the United States and China. Empirical results indicate that regional economic vitality is positively affected by parks and grassland, patch growth patterns, higher urban density, and closer proximities to coastlines and major roads. In contrast, the core growth form of land conservation has a negative economic effect. Among the estimated variables, we find that the patch growth form of land conservation and closer proximity to higher urban density have the largest positive effects on economic vitality across the study sites. Our findings contribute to both land conservation policy and the climate change literature by uncovering the spatially explicit effects of land conservation related to climate change adaptation.

土地保护被认为是应对气候变化的一种多功能适应战略,因为它具有减轻风险和提高生物多样性的能力。然而,关注土地保护的气候适应功能的实证研究却十分有限。利用遥感、逻辑回归和景观度量等多种地理空间和统计技术,我们研究了土地保护空间特征的影响。这些特征会影响城市沿海地区气候适应的功能效果,进而影响美国和中国的地区经济活力。实证结果表明,公园和草地、片状增长模式、较高的城市密度以及与海岸线和主要道路的距离较近,都会对区域经济活力产生积极影响。相比之下,土地保护的核心增长形式对经济产生了负面影响。在估算的变量中,我们发现土地保护的成片增长形式和更接近更高的城市密度对整个研究地点的经济活力具有最大的积极影响。我们的研究结果揭示了与适应气候变化相关的土地保护的空间效应,为土地保护政策和气候变化文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Unpacking the theory-practice gap in climate adaptation” [Clim. Risk Manage. 42 (2023) 100567] 揭开气候适应理论与实践之间的差距 "的更正 《气候风险管理》第 42 (2023) 100567 期
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100620
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引用次数: 0
Unseen suffering: Social injustice among women during climate-induced migration in Pakistan 看不见的痛苦:巴基斯坦妇女在气候导致的移徙中遭受的社会不公
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100663
Wahid Ullah , Haijun Dong , Ashfaq Ahmad Shah , Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Muhammad Khursid , Takaaki Nihei
Women are highly exposed to climate-induced natural disasters in Pakistan due to socio-cultural barriers resulting in heightened social injustice among them. This paper investigates the drivers of social injustice during forced migration among women living in vulnerable areas of Pakistan. The study utilized data from fifteen key informants’ interviews by employing a systematic narrative analysis to investigate women’s responses towards migration and gender dimensions of adverse climatic events. The results show that economic, socio-cultural, and health related factors were among the key contributors exposing women to social injustice during migration while in search for better life. The findings further unveiled that decisions regarding migration were mainly taken by the household heads especially who in most cases were the male family members. In all circumstances, securing lives, livelihoods, and properties, access to better education, healthcare facilities, and to overall improve socioeconomic situation of the household, were the primary goals of deciding to move to newfound. Given that some members of the household pursue migration as a result of adverse climatic events, government strategies are required to mitigate risks at destinations and create opportunities for the displaced populations.
在巴基斯坦,由于社会文化方面的障碍,妇女极易受到气候引起的自然灾害的影响,从而加剧了她们之间的社会不公。本文调查了生活在巴基斯坦脆弱地区的妇女被迫迁徙期间社会不公的驱动因素。研究利用 15 个关键信息提供者的访谈数据,通过系统的叙事分析,调查了妇女对迁移的反应以及不利气候事件的性别层面。研究结果表明,经济、社会文化和健康相关因素是导致妇女在寻求更好生活的移徙过程中遭受社会不公的主要原因。研究结果进一步揭示,有关迁移的决定主要由户主做出,特别是在大多数情况下,户主都是男性家庭成员。在所有情况下,确保生命、生计和财产安全,获得更好的教育和医疗设施,以及全面改善家庭 的社会经济状况,都是决定迁往新地方的首要目标。鉴于一些家庭成员因不利气候事件而迁移,政府需要制定战略,以降低目的地的风险,并为流离失所者创造机会。
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引用次数: 0
Using social-network analysis to map institutional actors’ links with vulnerable municipalities under climate change in Honduras’ dry corridor. Pathways towards improved cooperation and territorial interventions 利用社会网络分析绘制洪都拉斯干旱走廊气候变化下机构参与者与脆弱城市的联系图。改善合作和地区干预的途径
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100664
Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez-Rodriguez , Irma Ayes-Rivera , Jean-Francois Le Coq , Rafael Renteria-Ramos , Johana Marcela Castillo-Rivera
The Honduras dry corridor, located in Central America’s Pacific region, has high natural climate variability. Nearly half of the Honduran population depends on socio-economic activities linked to agriculture, making climate-change adaptation crucial for the agricultural sector to ensure food and nutrition security. This research analyzes how institutional structures function and interact as a network to investigate the spatial coherence and relevance of public- and private-sector interventions related to agriculture, climate change, and food security in 153 municipalities of Honduras’ dry corridor. We employed a Social Network Analysis (SNA) approach to examine these interactions over the territories, revealing two network patterns: the first favors a single municipality, observed only in the Central District where Honduras’ capital is located; the second is an egocentric network, favoring a single institution, observed in four cases, particularly in municipalities bordering with El Salvador and Guatemala. The SNA results reveal a spatial misalignment, where only 9% of interventions linked to climate-change adaptation are conducted in the highly vulnerable, outlying zones located farthest from the capital. The study highlights the need for improved coordination and strategic prioritization of interventions in the most vulnerable municipalities within the Honduras dry corridor, specifically improvement in collaborative actions, use of resources, and setting strategic priorities in regions where future demand will require progressively mobilizing institutional capabilities. By identifying the current gaps and misalignments in institutional actions, this research provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to enhance collaborative efforts to ensure that climate-change adaptation measures effectively target the most vulnerable areas.
洪都拉斯干旱走廊位于中美洲太平洋地区,自然气候变异性大。洪都拉斯近一半的人口依赖与农业相关的社会经济活动,因此适应气候变化对农业部门确保粮食和营养安全至关重要。本研究分析了洪都拉斯干旱走廊 153 个城市的制度结构如何作为一个网络发挥作用和互动,以调查与农业、气候变化和粮食安全相关的公共和私营部门干预措施的空间一致性和相关性。我们采用了社会网络分析(SNA)方法来研究这些地区的互动情况,发现了两种网络模式:第一种模式有利于单一市镇,仅在洪都拉斯首都所在的中央区观察到;第二种是以自我为中心的网络,有利于单一机构,在四个案例中观察到,特别是在与萨尔瓦多和危地马拉接壤的市镇。国民账户体系的结果揭示了一种空间错位,即只有 9% 与适应气候变化有关的干预措施是在离首都最远的高度脆弱的外围地区实施的。这项研究强调,有必要在洪都拉斯干旱走廊内最脆弱的城市加强协调,并对干预措施进行战略优先排序,特别是在未来需求需要逐步调动机构能力的地区,改进合作行动、资源利用和战略优先排序。通过确定当前机构行动中的差距和失调,本研究为政策制定者和利益相关者提供了宝贵的见解,以加强合作努力,确保气候变化适应措施有效地针对最脆弱的地区。
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引用次数: 0
CLIM-SEG: A generalizable segmentation model for heat and flood risk mapping CLIM-SEG:用于绘制热量和洪水风险图的可通用细分模型
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100654
Anushka Ray , Katherine Xu , Norhan Bayomi, John E. Fernandez
With the escalating impact of climate change coupled with increased urbanization, many cities will experience extreme heat events and intense flooding. Current modeling approaches often fail to incorporate high-resolution, frequently updated data sources, such as aerial imagery from web mapping platforms, limiting their effectiveness in identifying areas at risk. To address this gap, the paper presents CLIM-SEG, a novel framework for high-resolution urban heat and flood risk assessment, addressing critical gaps in current climate risk modeling. This framework integrates semantic segmentation of aerial imagery with a weighted sum approach that integrates environmental, socioeconomic, and building data to provide comprehensive risk evaluations at the census tract level. CLIM-SEG synthesize land cover data with hazard and vulnerability factors, producing risk scores ranging from 0 to 1. This low-cost and efficient framework can enable urban planners to prioritize resources for flood mitigation and heat adaptation, addressing the limitations of current approaches and contributing to the field of urban planning and climate change adaptation. The propoosed methodology incorporates a custom-curated dataset of 545 aerial images, including 145 manually annotated segmentation maps, to fine-tune advanced semantic segmentation models. The optimized Segmenter model achieves a pixel accuracy of 97.85% and an Intersection over Union (IoU) of 0.9578 for key urban features, significantly outperforming baseline models. Boston is selected to represent an ideal representation for both heat and flood risk, as the city experiences severe urban heat islands, and is susceptible to coastal and riverine flooding, with over 11,000 structures expected to be affected by 2070 due to sea level rise and increased precipitation. Results from flood and heat risk models indicate that census tracts in South End have the highest flood risk, with a weighted score value of 0.825, while census tracts in the Fenway-Kenmore neighborhood show the highest heat risk, with a score of 0.991. Both of these results have also been verified with other heat and flood risk mapping sources for Boston. The proposed framework of CLIM-SEG not only addresses the challenges faced by Boston but also has the potential to be scaled to other urban areas dealing with the impacts of climate change, providing a valuable tool for risk assessment and decision-making in the face of a changing climate.
随着气候变化影响的不断升级以及城市化进程的加快,许多城市都将遭遇极端高温事件和严重洪涝灾害。目前的建模方法往往不能结合高分辨率、经常更新的数据源,如网络地图平台的航空图像,从而限制了其识别风险区域的有效性。为弥补这一不足,本文介绍了用于高分辨率城市高温和洪水风险评估的新型框架 CLIM-SEG,以弥补当前气候风险建模中的关键不足。该框架将航空图像的语义分割与加权和方法相结合,综合环境、社会经济和建筑数据,在普查区层面提供全面的风险评估。CLIM-SEG 将土地覆被数据与灾害和脆弱性因素综合在一起,得出 0 到 1 的风险分数。这种低成本、高效率的框架可以帮助城市规划者优先考虑用于洪水缓解和热适应的资源,解决当前方法的局限性,为城市规划和气候变化适应领域做出贡献。建议的方法结合了一个由 545 幅航空图像组成的定制数据集,其中包括 145 幅人工注释的分割图,以微调先进的语义分割模型。优化后的 Segmenter 模型的像素准确率达到 97.85%,关键城市特征的 "联合交集"(IoU)达到 0.9578,明显优于基线模型。波士顿被选为热量和洪水风险的理想代表,因为该市存在严重的城市热岛,并且容易受到沿海和沿河洪水的影响,由于海平面上升和降水量增加,预计到 2070 年将有超过 11,000 座建筑受到影响。洪水和高温风险模型的结果表明,南端人口普查区的洪水风险最高,加权分值为 0.825,而芬威-肯莫尔社区的人口普查区的高温风险最高,分值为 0.991。这两项结果也与波士顿的其他热量和洪水风险地图来源进行了验证。所提出的 CLIM-SEG 框架不仅能解决波士顿面临的挑战,而且有可能推广到其他应对气候变化影响的城市地区,为面对不断变化的气候进行风险评估和决策提供宝贵的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change worry in the times of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence from two large-scale European surveys COVID-19 大流行时期的气候变化担忧。来自欧洲两次大规模调查的证据
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100599
Ádám Stefkovics , Csilla Ágoston , Emőke Bukovenszki , Andrea Dúll , Olivér Hortay , Attila Varga

Climate change beliefs drive individual actions tackling climate change and influence the support of climate change policies. In the last two years, however, humanity has faced a parallel global crisis: the COVID-19 pandemic. The widely communicated finite pool of worry theory suggests that consideration of a crisis usually decreases when another crisis is emerging. Nevertheless, according to recent evidence, climate change concerns or awareness have increased during the pandemic. In this study, we aimed at describing recent changes in climate change concerns and examining the effect of COVID-fear on climate change worry in 28 European countries drawing on data from nationally representative surveys. We observed a strong increase in climate change concerns between 2016 and 2021, and a slight additional increase between during the pandemic (between 2020 and 2021) in the 28 countries examined, especially in those countries, where the level of concern was originally lower. The results of the multilevel models showed that COVID-19 fear reinforces climate change concerns which contradicts the finite pool of worry theory. These findings may come as good news given that increasing climate change concerns may raise individuals' support of climate policies, however, carefully designed awareness-raising campaigns are needed.

气候变化信念推动着个人应对气候变化的行动,并影响着对气候变化政策的支持。然而,在过去的两年里,人类同时面临着一场全球性危机:COVID-19 大流行病。广为流传的有限担忧理论认为,当另一场危机出现时,人们对危机的考虑通常会减少。然而,根据最近的证据,在大流行病期间,人们对气候变化的担忧或认识有所提高。在这项研究中,我们利用具有全国代表性的调查数据,对 28 个欧洲国家气候变化担忧的近期变化进行了描述,并研究了 COVID-fear 对气候变化担忧的影响。我们观察到,在所研究的 28 个国家中,气候变化担忧在 2016 年至 2021 年间大幅增加,在大流行期间(2020 年至 2021 年)又略有增加,尤其是在那些担忧程度原本较低的国家。多层次模型的结果表明,COVID-19 恐惧强化了对气候变化的担忧,这与有限担忧库理论相矛盾。这些发现可能是一个好消息,因为气候变化担忧的增加可能会提高个人对气候政策的支持,但是,还需要精心设计提高认识的活动。
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引用次数: 0
Delayed, abrupt and unjust: An institutionalist perspective on limits to climate change adaptation 延迟、突然和不公正:从制度主义角度看气候变化适应的局限性
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100611
Frans Berkhout , Kirstin Dow , Adelle Thomas

An actor-centred, risk-based framework for analysing limits to the capacity to adapt to climate change impacts, developed in the context of IPCC AR5 (Dow et al,. 2013b), was refined in the IPCC AR6 reports (Mechler et al., 2020; O’Neill et al., 2022; Thomas et al., 2021). In this paper, we centre the analysis on how institutional contexts shape and influence adaptation limits as experienced by social actors. We emphasise institutions’ stability over time leading to delayed adaptation, their role in protecting more powerful rather than weaker social interests, and their tendency to generate punctuated rather than smooth changes in vulnerability to climate risks. We illustrate these arguments with two case studies of socio-ecological institutional regimes facing adaptation limits: water resources management in the Colorado River Basin; and disaster risk management in The Bahamas. These represent divergent risk governance contexts generating limits to adaptation for multiple social actors, despite the availability of plausible adaptation pathways. Our aim is to contribute to a generalisable approach to adaptation limits which can be applied in identifying and assessing critical choices in responses to growing climate change impacts.

在IPCC第五次评估报告(Dow等人,2013年b)的背景下开发了一个以行动者为中心、基于风险的框架,用于分析适应气候变化影响能力的限制,该框架在IPCC第六次评估报告(Mechler等人,2020年;O'Neill等人,2022年;Thomas等人,2021年)中得到了完善。在本文中,我们将重点分析制度背景如何塑造和影响社会行动者所经历的适应限制。我们强调制度的长期稳定性会导致适应的延迟,强调制度在保护更强大而非更弱小的社会利益方面所起的作用,并强调制度往往会导致对气候风险的脆弱性发生点状而非平滑的变化。我们通过两个面临适应限制的社会生态制度案例研究来说明这些论点:科罗拉多河流域的水资源管理和巴哈马的灾害风险管理。这两个案例代表了不同的风险治理背景,尽管存在合理的适应途径,但仍对多个社会参与者的适应产生了限制。我们的目标是为适应限制的通用方法做出贡献,该方法可用于确定和评估应对日益严重的气候变化影响的关键选择。
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引用次数: 0
An editorial to the Special Issue on “Severe climate Risks”
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100661
A.K. Magnan, B.C. O’Neill, M. Garschagen
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引用次数: 0
Updating catastrophe models to today’s climate – An application of a large ensemble approach to extreme rainfall 根据当今气候更新灾害模型--对极端降雨采用大集合方法
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100594
Andreas Lang , Benjamin Poschlod

As climate change unfolds, extreme weather events and natural hazards relevant for the insurance industry may change in frequency and intensity. In order to guarantee risk-adequate pricing, risk modelers have to ask themselves the question whether a certain ‘hazard’ parameter based on past observations and calibrated on past data is still valid or needs to be updated. Using the example of heavy rainfall between 3 h and 72 h as a proxy for flash flooding, we apply a unique high-resolution single model initial-condition large ensemble. We outline a methodology by which risk modelers can assess whether, where and by how much updating the hazard component of their risk model is needed. Therefore, we compare two time periods: 1980–1999 (as an example for a typical baseline period) and 2015–2034 (representing a 20-year period centered around today). We argue that assessing changes over the full ensemble space is vital for (i) the identification of homogeneous regions where a certain signal emerges, and (ii) the quantification of risk changes in the tail of the extreme value distribution that may still be hidden in the mean response to climate change. In the example case of 3-hourly 50-year rainfall return levels, we find a significant increase between 1980 and 1999 and 2015–2034 over 44 % of European land area. We also identify specific risk regions such as northwestern Spain where changes in the very tail (100-year rainfall return level) already emerge before more common extremes (1-year rainfall return level). Failing to detect and consider these tail changes or assuming equal changes for common and rare extremes may therefore lead to an under- or overestimation of the true level of risk today.

随着气候变化的发展,与保险业相关的极端天气事件和自然灾害的频率和强度可能会发生变化。为了保证风险定价的适当性,风险建模人员必须扪心自问,基于过去观测数据校准的某个 "危害 "参数是否仍然有效,还是需要更新。以 3 小时至 72 小时的暴雨作为山洪暴发的代表为例,我们采用了独特的高分辨率单一模型初始条件大集合。我们概述了一种方法,通过这种方法,风险建模人员可以评估是否需要更新其风险模型中的灾害部分、更新的位置和更新的程度。因此,我们比较了两个时间段:1980-1999 年(以典型基线期为例)和 2015-2034 年(以今天为中心的 20 年)。我们认为,评估整个集合空间的变化对于(i)识别出现某种信号的同质区域,以及(ii)量化极端值分布尾部的风险变化至关重要,这些风险变化可能仍然隐藏在对气候变化的平均响应中。以 50 年一遇的 3 小时降雨量为例,我们发现在 1980-1999 年和 2015-2034 年期间,欧洲 44% 的陆地面积降雨量显著增加。我们还发现了一些特定的风险地区,如西班牙西北部,在这些地区,最尾端(100 年降雨重现水平)的变化已经先于更常见的极端变化(1 年降雨重现水平)出现。因此,如果没有发现和考虑这些尾部变化,或假设常见和罕见极端情况的变化相同,可能会导致低估或高估当前的真实风险水平。
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引用次数: 0
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