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Bridging data scarcity in groundwater quality studies: A systematic evaluation of statistical and deep learning-based generators 弥合地下水质量研究中的数据短缺:基于统计和深度学习的生成器的系统评估
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104327
C.D. Aju , Bhupendra Bahadur Singh , A.L. Achu , Madhusudan Ingale , Mangesh M. Goswami , M.C. Raicy , L. Elango
Large-scale groundwater quality assessments are often hindered by the limited availability of hydrochemical data. Synthetic data generation provides a means to augment small datasets; however, the reliability of these methods and their implications for predictive modeling remain underexplored in environmental studies, particularly in the context of groundwater sustainability. We systematically evaluated six approaches, including bootstrap sampling, Gaussian noise perturbation, Monte Carlo sampling, SMOGN, CTGAN, and TVAE, using a groundwater quality dataset from southern India. Synthetic datasets were evaluated for their similarity to real data using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, the Wasserstein distance, moment differences, Pearson correlation, kernel density estimation plots, and principal component analysis. The practical utility of the synthetic data was evaluated by training a Random Forest model to predict total dissolved solids (TDS) from major ions. The model performance on the real dataset was assessed using R2, RMSE, and MAE. Bootstrap delivered near-perfect agreement with the real data (R2 = 0.999, NSE = 0.999, RMSE = 41.5 mg L−1), with SMOGN being competitive. Gaussian perturbation was acceptable, while TVAE was moderate. Monte Carlo and CTGAN performed poorly, with negative NSE indicating performance worse than predicting the mean. SHAP-based feature importance analysis confirmed that the best-performing synthetic methods preserved the dominant hydrochemical drivers. Overall, traditional resampling approaches (Bootstrap, SMOGN) outperformed complex deep generative models on small-sample groundwater datasets. This methodology can support risk assessments by improving the accuracy of water-quality predictive models, thereby facilitating effective resource management and pollution control. This study provides practical guidance for assessing and managing groundwater quality by recommending synthetic data augmentation strategies tailored to dataset characteristics, particularly in data-limited regions.
大规模地下水质量评价常常因水化学数据有限而受到阻碍。合成数据生成提供了一种增强小数据集的方法;然而,在环境研究中,特别是在地下水可持续性的背景下,这些方法的可靠性及其对预测模型的影响仍未得到充分探讨。我们系统地评估了六种方法,包括自举采样、高斯噪声扰动、蒙特卡罗采样、SMOGN、CTGAN和TVAE,使用了印度南部的地下水质量数据集。使用Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验、Wasserstein距离、矩差、Pearson相关、核密度估计图和主成分分析来评估合成数据集与真实数据的相似性。通过训练随机森林模型来预测主要离子的总溶解固体(TDS),评估了合成数据的实际效用。使用R2、RMSE和MAE评估模型在真实数据集上的性能。Bootstrap与实际数据接近完美吻合(R2 = 0.999, NSE = 0.999, RMSE = 41.5 mg L−1),SMOGN具有竞争力。高斯扰动是可以接受的,而TVAE是中等的。蒙特卡罗和CTGAN表现不佳,负NSE表明性能比预测平均值更差。基于shap的特征重要性分析证实,性能最好的合成方法保留了主要的水化学驱动因素。总体而言,传统的重采样方法(Bootstrap、SMOGN)在小样本地下水数据集上的表现优于复杂的深层生成模型。这种方法可以通过提高水质预测模型的准确性来支持风险评估,从而促进有效的资源管理和污染控制。本研究通过推荐适合数据集特征的综合数据增强策略,特别是在数据有限的地区,为评估和管理地下水质量提供了实用指导。
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引用次数: 0
Generative AI-enabled forecasting and green supply chain sustainability assessment: Evidence from China's palm oil trade with ASEAN 生成式人工智能预测和绿色供应链可持续性评估:来自中国与东盟棕榈油贸易的证据
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104341
Yuhan Liu , Xiangzheng Deng , Yunxiao Gao
Food systems and agri-commodity supply chains face increasing pressures from climate change, trade volatility, and environmental degradation, palm oil positioned at the center of sustainability debates. China, as a major importer, and Indonesia, the leading producer, play crucial roles in influencing the environmental footprint and resilience of cross-border palm-oil trade. This study integrates generative AI-based demand forecasting with spatial sustainability assessment to evaluate the alignment between China's future palm-oil demand and Indonesia's sustainability-compliant supply. Using Time-series Generative Adversarial Networks (TimeGAN), we generate scenario-rich forecasts of China's palm-oil imports through 2030. A province-level Green Supply Chain Sustainability Index (GSCI) for Indonesia, incorporating deforestation intensity, land-use efficiency, zero-deforestation commitments, and RSPO certification, supports traceability-based allocation. Results show that more than 60% of China's projected imports can be met by high-GSCI provinces, indicating strong potential for deforestation-free procurement without undermining supply security. The results demonstrate how AI-enabled forecasting combined with spatial sustainability indicators can inform environmentally responsible sourcing strategies and enhance resilience in cross-border palm-oil supply systems.
粮食系统和农产品供应链面临来自气候变化、贸易波动和环境退化的越来越大的压力,棕榈油处于可持续性辩论的中心。作为主要进口国的中国和主要生产国的印度尼西亚,在影响跨境棕榈油贸易的环境足迹和弹性方面发挥着至关重要的作用。本研究将基于生成式人工智能的需求预测与空间可持续性评估相结合,以评估中国未来棕榈油需求与印尼符合可持续性的供应之间的一致性。利用时间序列生成对抗网络(TimeGAN),我们对中国到2030年的棕榈油进口进行了场景丰富的预测。印度尼西亚的省级绿色供应链可持续发展指数(GSCI)综合了毁林强度、土地利用效率、零毁林承诺和RSPO认证,支持基于可追溯性的分配。结果显示,中国60%以上的预计进口量可以由高gsci省份满足,这表明在不破坏供应安全的情况下实现无砍伐采购的巨大潜力。研究结果表明,人工智能预测与空间可持续性指标相结合,可以为环境负责任的采购策略提供信息,并增强跨境棕榈油供应系统的复原力。
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引用次数: 0
Mapping seawater intrusion for sustainable groundwater management in arid regions: A geophysical approach from Al-Hofuf, Eastern Saudi Arabia 绘制干旱地区可持续地下水管理的海水入侵图:来自沙特阿拉伯东部Al-Hofuf的地球物理方法
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104294
Kamal Abdelrahman , Alfahad A. Almakrami , Saad S. Alarifi
Seawater intrusion affects the sustainability of coastal aquifers, particularly in arid regions such as Eastern Saudi Arabia, where groundwater is the primary source of water. This study maps and characterizes seawater intrusion in Al-Hofuf area using Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) with a Schlumberger array at 20 sites along a coastal–inland transect (AB/2 up to 400 m). Resistivity data were inverted through 1D modeling and statistically validated (R2 > 0.97), revealing four geoelectric layers. The upper heterogeneous Quaternary sediments exhibited variable resistivity, while a low-resistivity clay-rich layer (3.4–39 Ω m) acted as an aquitard. The underlying fractured and karstified limestone (12.2–132 Ω m) forms the principal freshwater aquifer. Very low resistivity (<10 Ω m) near the coast (VES-20, VES-16, VES-10) indicated active intrusion, whereas inland points (VES-7, VES-8) showed high resistivity, denoting fresh or dry sands. Spatial analysis revealed an intrusion extending up to 35 km inland, along permeable sands and fractured limestone. Structural geology, particularly north–south trending anticlines and synclines, modulates saline migration, acting as partial flow barriers. Integrating geoelectrical results with structural mapping produced the first high-resolution seawater intrusion model for Al-Hofuf, identifying vulnerable zones and potential sites for Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR). This cost-effective and scalable approach supports sustainable groundwater management in arid coastal environments, aligning with Sustainable Development Goal 6.
海水入侵影响沿海含水层的可持续性,特别是在干旱地区,如沙特阿拉伯东部,地下水是主要的水源。本研究利用垂直电测深(VES)和斯伦贝谢阵列在沿海-内陆样带的20个地点(AB/2至400米)绘制了Al-Hofuf地区海水入侵的地图和特征。通过一维建模反演电阻率数据并进行统计验证(R2 > 0.97),揭示了4个地电层。上部非均质第四纪沉积物表现为可变电阻率,而低电阻率富粘土层(3.4-39 Ω m)则为引水层。下伏的裂隙岩溶灰岩(12.2-132 Ω m)形成了主要的淡水含水层。靠近海岸(vs -20、vs -16、vs -10)的极低电阻率(<10 Ω m)表明侵入活动,而内陆点(vs -7、vs -8)的电阻率较高,表明为新鲜或干砂。空间分析显示,沿渗透性砂岩和裂缝性石灰岩向内陆延伸了35公里。构造地质,特别是南北走向的背斜和向斜,调节了盐运移,起到部分流动障碍的作用。将地电结果与构造测绘相结合,生成了Al-Hofuf的第一个高分辨率海水入侵模型,确定了脆弱区域和管理含水层补给(MAR)的潜在地点。这种具有成本效益和可扩展的方法支持干旱沿海环境中的可持续地下水管理,符合可持续发展目标6。
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引用次数: 0
Remote sensing applications for assessing climate change impacts on deciduous forests—A systematic review 气候变化对阔叶林影响的遥感评估——系统综述
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104321
Sude Gül Yel , Hasan Burak Özmen , Siğnem Öney Birol , Esra Tunç Görmüş , Gordana Kaplan
Deciduous forests play a vital role in global carbon sequestration, hydrological regulation, and biodiversity conservation, yet they are increasingly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. This review synthesizes recent advances in remote sensing applications for assessing climate-induced changes in phenology, productivity, and resilience of deciduous forests. A systematic literature analysis was conducted using Web of Science, incorporating 70 peer-reviewed studies that employed satellite-based datasets such as MODIS, Landsat, and Sentinel-2. The review identifies key remote sensing metrics, including NDVI, EVI, LAI, and SIF, which are used to monitor phenological shifts, drought impacts, and changes in forest productivity. Analytical approaches such as time series analysis, regression models, and machine learning (e.g., RF, LMEM) were evaluated for their effectiveness in modeling forest-climate interactions. Results highlight distinct regional patterns in phenological responses, sensor preferences across climate zones, and a growing reliance on multi-sensor data fusion to enhance monitoring precision. Despite advancements in remote sensing technologies, critical research gaps persist, especially regarding the biological interpretation of spectral indices and the assessment of forest resilience mechanisms at finer spatial scales. This review underscores the need for interdisciplinary approaches and advanced remote sensing frameworks to support future forest conservation and climate adaptation strategies.
落叶森林在全球固碳、水文调节和生物多样性保护方面发挥着至关重要的作用,但它们越来越容易受到气候变化的不利影响。本文综述了近年来遥感应用在评估气候引起的落叶森林物候、生产力和恢复力变化方面的最新进展。利用Web of Science进行了系统的文献分析,纳入了70项同行评议的研究,这些研究采用了基于卫星的数据集,如MODIS、Landsat和Sentinel-2。该综述确定了用于监测物候变化、干旱影响和森林生产力变化的关键遥感指标,包括NDVI、EVI、LAI和SIF。对时间序列分析、回归模型和机器学习(如RF、LMEM)等分析方法在模拟森林-气候相互作用方面的有效性进行了评估。结果突出了物候响应的不同区域模式,不同气候带的传感器偏好,以及越来越多地依赖多传感器数据融合来提高监测精度。尽管遥感技术取得了进步,但关键的研究差距仍然存在,特别是在光谱指数的生物学解释和在更精细的空间尺度上评估森林恢复力机制方面。这一综述强调需要跨学科方法和先进的遥感框架来支持未来的森林保护和气候适应战略。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the impact of microplastic polymer wastes on environmental fate and human health risks 评估微塑料聚合物废物对环境命运和人类健康风险的影响
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104246
Maria Joseph Angelaa Lincy , Senthil Kumar Babu , Saghya Infant Shofia , Senthilkumar Nangan , Balamurugan Paneerselvam
As plastics keep getting manufactured and wasted in enormous amounts, microplastic pollution is becoming a serious environmental and human health issue. This review consolidates new developments concerning the sources, distribution, detection, and physiological effects of microplastics. Microplastics are derived from the breakdown of large plastic litter and from direct industrial sources like cosmetics, textiles, and tire tread particles, infiltrating aquatic, atmospheric, and terrestrial environments. Recent research illustrates that microplastics have the ability to pass through biological barriers, accumulate in various human organs, and induce oxidative stress, release of inflammatory cytokines, mitochondrial impairment, and changes in lipid metabolism offering novel evidence for physiological causation of toxicity. Parameters controlling environmental transport are particle size, form, density, and ecological factors like wind patterns, ocean currents, and precipitation. Human exposure is mainly via ingestion, inhalation, and dermal uptake, with recent biomonitoring verifying microplastics in blood, placenta, breast milk, and lung tissues. Analytical advancements such as Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR), Raman, and pyrolysis–GC/MS methods have enhanced detection sensitivity but continue to pose challenges with respect to contamination control, nanoplastic quantification, and standardization of methods. Recent studies also investigate synergistic toxicity between microplastics and co-contaminants (e.g., heavy metals, persistent organic pollutants) and examine potential transgenerational and microbiome-mediated effects. By synthesizing these novel findings, this review presents an updated understanding of microplastic contamination and its mechanistic connections to human physiology, with the goal of informing future research direction and evidence-based environmental policy.
随着塑料的大量生产和浪费,微塑料污染正在成为一个严重的环境和人类健康问题。本文综述了微塑料的来源、分布、检测和生理效应等方面的最新进展。微塑料来自大量塑料垃圾的分解和化妆品、纺织品和轮胎胎面颗粒等直接工业来源,渗透到水生、大气和陆地环境中。最近的研究表明,微塑料具有穿过生物屏障,在人体各器官中积累的能力,并引起氧化应激,炎症细胞因子的释放,线粒体损伤和脂质代谢的变化,为毒性的生理原因提供了新的证据。控制环境迁移的参数包括颗粒大小、形态、密度以及风型、洋流和降水等生态因素。人类接触微塑料主要通过摄入、吸入和皮肤吸收,最近的生物监测证实血液、胎盘、母乳和肺组织中存在微塑料。傅里叶变换红外(FTIR)、拉曼和热解- gc /MS等分析方法的进步提高了检测灵敏度,但在污染控制、纳米塑料定量和方法标准化方面仍然存在挑战。最近的研究还调查了微塑料与共污染物(例如重金属、持久性有机污染物)之间的协同毒性,并检查了潜在的跨代和微生物组介导的影响。通过综合这些新发现,本文综述了对微塑料污染及其与人体生理机制联系的最新认识,旨在为未来的研究方向和基于证据的环境政策提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Soil-structure interaction and uplift bearing capacity: A study on low-header CEP single pile foundations 土-结构相互作用与抗拔承载力:低头CEP单桩基础研究
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104255
Muhammad Rizwan , Sobia Naseem , Muhammad Akhtar Tarar
Low-header Concrete Expanded-Plate (CEP) single pile foundations play a critical role in supporting renewable energy structures, transmission line supports, and seismic-resilient infrastructure. Their unique geometry and interaction with surrounding soil make uplift resistance a key design consideration. Despite growing application, research on their uplift behavior remains fragmented, with studies often focusing on isolated mechanisms, simplified analytical models, or site-specific experiments. This critical and state-of-the-art review synthesizes current knowledge on soil–structure interaction (SSI) and uplift bearing capacity of low-header CEP piles, integrating experimental findings, numerical simulations, and analytical models across diverse soil conditions. The review evaluates key mechanisms governing uplift resistance, including plate–soil interlocking, shaft shear transfer, and nonlinear soil behavior, while highlighting inconsistencies, methodological limitations, and gaps in existing research. Furthermore, it examines field validation studies, centrifuge testing, and modern numerical approaches, identifying opportunities for reliability-based design, machine-learning-assisted prediction, and adaptive monitoring of pile performance. By consolidating dispersed evidence and providing a structured evaluation of SSI effects, this review offers guidance for improved design strategies and outlines directions for future research to enhance the reliability and efficiency of CEP pile foundations under uplift-dominated loading.
低头混凝土膨胀板(CEP)单桩基础在支持可再生能源结构、输电线路支撑和抗震基础设施方面发挥着至关重要的作用。它们独特的几何形状和与周围土壤的相互作用使抗隆起成为设计的关键考虑因素。尽管应用越来越广泛,但对其隆升行为的研究仍然零散,研究往往集中在孤立的机制、简化的分析模型或特定地点的实验上。这篇重要的、最先进的综述综合了当前关于土-结构相互作用(SSI)和低头CEP桩的上拔承载能力的知识,整合了不同土壤条件下的实验结果、数值模拟和分析模型。该综述评估了控制隆升阻力的关键机制,包括板土联锁、轴剪切转移和非线性土壤行为,同时强调了现有研究中的不一致性、方法局限性和空白。此外,它还检查了现场验证研究、离心机测试和现代数值方法,确定了基于可靠性的设计、机器学习辅助预测和桩性能自适应监测的机会。通过整合分散的证据和对SSI效应的结构化评估,本综述为改进设计策略提供了指导,并为未来的研究方向提供了指导,以提高CEP桩基在抬升主导荷载下的可靠性和效率。
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引用次数: 0
BAMPP: A novel Bayesian network enhanced by average marginal posterior probabilities to identify critical ground truth meteorological stations for drought monitoring BAMPP:一种基于平均边际后验概率增强的新型贝叶斯网络,用于识别干旱监测的关键地面真实气象站
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104215
Rizwan Niaz , Saman Munir , Muhammad Ahmad Raza , Rifat Tur , Sadegh Partani , Ali Danandeh Mehr
This study introduces a new approach for identifying critical meteorological stations essential for analyzing spatiotemporal dynamics of drought events at regional scale. We propose a Bayesian network enhanced by Average Marginal Posterior Probabilities (AMPP) to evaluate stations based on frequency, severity, and persistence of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at multiple timescales (SPI-3, SPI-6, and SPI-12). The method is demonstrated across the province of Ankara, Türkiye, effectively capturing the probabilistic relationships and interdependencies governing drought propagation among stations. Our analysis revealed distinct spatiotemporal patterns across the region at all time scales. For short-term droughts (SPI-3), critical station identity varied seasonally, indicating localized dynamics; for instance, Esenboga was key station in February, March, July, October and December, while Beypazari was influential in the other months. In contrast, for medium- and long-term droughts (SPI-6, SPI-12), Beypazari was the most critical station across all months, establishing it as the representative station for long-term drought monitoring in the region. This method provides a robust, probabilistic tool for optimizing drought monitoring networks and enhancing regional water resource management.
该研究提出了一种新的方法来确定区域尺度干旱事件时空动态分析所需的关键气象站。基于标准化降水指数(SPI)在多个时间尺度(SPI-3、SPI-6和SPI-12)上的频率、严重程度和持久性,我们提出了一个基于平均边际后验概率(AMPP)增强的贝叶斯网络来评估台站。该方法在土耳其安卡拉省各地进行了演示,有效地捕捉了各监测站之间干旱传播的概率关系和相互依赖性。我们的分析揭示了该地区在所有时间尺度上的不同时空模式。对于短期干旱(SPI-3),关键站身份随季节变化,表明局部动态;例如,埃森博加在2月、3月、7月、10月和12月是关键站点,而贝帕扎里在其他月份具有影响力。而对于中期和长期干旱(SPI-6、SPI-12),贝帕扎里是所有月份中最关键的站点,是该地区长期干旱监测的代表性站点。该方法为优化干旱监测网络和加强区域水资源管理提供了一个可靠的概率工具。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating Conventional and machine learning approaches with seismic inversion for optimized porosity estimation in heterogeneous siliciclastic rocks 将传统方法和机器学习方法与地震反演相结合,优化非均质硅塑性岩石孔隙度估算
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104248
Muyyassar Hussain , Urooj Shakir , Zohaib Naseer , Muhammad Raiees Amjad , Farooq Arshad , Muhammad Kamal , Ahmed E. Radwan
Heterogeneous siliciclastic rocks pose significant challenges in reservoir characterization, where such heterogeneity is often not sufficiently captured by conventional petrophysical techniques alone. In this work, an innovative integrative framework for optimizing porosity estimation in complex depositional conditions is presented, combining sophisticated machine learning (ML) methods with traditional seismic inversion, considering the extreme heterogeneity of the Lower Goru Formation (LGF), Tajjal gas field, Gambat area, Lower Indus Basin (LIB), Pakistan. Specifically, a probabilistic neural network (PNN) is employed as a sophisticated deep-learning technique and coupled with well logs and 3D seismic datasets to develop an optimized predictive model for porosity estimation within the C-Interval of the LGF. A three-dimensional variation of porosity, calculated using a seismic inverted PNN map, ranges from -10 % to 13%. The petrophysical analysis began with a conventional approach based on empirical formulas, and the computed properties were then calibrated and cross-matched with log analysis performed using machine learning algorithms. Along with a limited 3D seismic dataset, three wells were used for petrophysical evaluation with the conventional technique, whereas in the supervised ML approach, two wells were used for training while one was kept as a test well. Among the models applied, the Extra Trees Regressor (ETR) provided low Vshl values and high effective porosity (PHIE), achieving over 99% R2 with the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) score. When compared to conventional interpretation at the test well, the Random Forest Regressor (RFR) provided water saturation (Sw) estimates with approximately 100% accuracy, demonstrating a relatively lower deviation than traditional petrophysical methods. Thus, the porosity values obtained from the integrated approach show strong agreement, reinforcing confidence in their reliability for future exploration endeavors in heterogeneous siliciclastic formations. Consequently, the results of this research can be applied to similar geological settings, particularly those characterized by alternating shale–sandstone layers enriched with hydrocarbons and exhibiting thickness variations with lateral extents.
非均质硅质碎屑岩对储层表征提出了重大挑战,仅靠常规岩石物理技术往往无法充分捕捉到这种非均质性。在这项工作中,考虑到巴基斯坦下印度河盆地(LIB) Tajjal气田下Goru组(LGF)的极端非均质性,提出了一个创新的综合框架,将复杂的机器学习(ML)方法与传统的地震反演相结合,用于优化复杂沉积条件下的孔隙度估算。具体来说,将概率神经网络(PNN)作为一种复杂的深度学习技术,结合测井和3D地震数据集,开发出一种优化的预测模型,用于LGF c层段的孔隙度估计。利用地震反向PNN图计算的孔隙度三维变化范围为- 10%至13%。岩石物理分析首先采用基于经验公式的常规方法,然后使用机器学习算法对计算出的性质进行校准,并与测井分析交叉匹配。利用有限的三维地震数据集,采用常规技术使用了3口井进行岩石物理评价,而在监督式机器学习方法中,使用了2口井进行训练,1口井作为测试井。在应用的模型中,Extra Trees regression (ETR)提供了较低的Vshl值和较高的有效孔隙度(PHIE), R2超过99%,均方误差(MSE)评分最低。与测试井的常规解释相比,随机森林回归(RFR)提供的含水饱和度(Sw)估计精度接近100%,与传统岩石物理方法相比,偏差相对较小。因此,通过综合方法获得的孔隙度值显示出很强的一致性,增强了对未来非均质硅屑地层勘探工作可靠性的信心。因此,这项研究的结果可以应用于类似的地质环境,特别是那些以富含碳氢化合物的页岩-砂岩交替层为特征,并表现出横向厚度变化的地质环境。
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引用次数: 0
Agro-climatic classification of Türkiye's Agricultural Basins using long-term ERA5-Land temperature data 基于era5 -陆地温度长期数据的<s:1>基耶农业流域农业气候分类
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104307
Mehmet Ali Çelik
The 30 main agricultural basins in Türkiye are categorized in this study using long-term mean, maximum, and minimum temperature indicators that were obtained from ERA5-Land data. Four thermally coherent clusters representing different agro-climatic regimes were formed from the basins using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering. Mild and steady temperatures in Cluster 1 (coastal and lowland basins) are ideal for intensive, high-value crop production. Wide diurnal ranges and low minimum temperatures are characteristics of Cluster 2 (high-altitude and continental basins), which represents cold and frost-prone agricultural zones. The highest mean and maximum temperatures are found in Cluster 3 (the basins of the Mediterranean, Aegean, and Southeastern Anatolia), which denotes hot, dry climates with significant risks of heat and water stress. Cluster 4, which has mixed agricultural potential and moderate thermal variability, serves as a transitional zone between continental and maritime climates. Temperature trends across all agricultural basins during the 1950–2023 period were positive, with some basins (Coastal Aegean, Coastal Mediterranean, Gediz and GAP basins) experiencing an average temperature increase rate of 2–7 °C per century. Analyses reveal that minimum temperatures are increasing faster than maximum temperatures, and that nocturnal warming is a dominant climate signal across Türkiye. Strong inter-station coherence in all temperature variables was confirmed by correlation analysis, indicating that regional-scale atmospheric dynamics shape Türkiye's temperature patterns more so than local microclimatic effects. These thermal clusters offer a spatially explicit framework for adaptive agricultural planning from an agro-climatological point of view, providing information on heat stress vulnerability, evapotranspiration demand, and frost risk. The findings demonstrate how temperature-based clustering can be combined with other policy tools like crop suitability mapping, irrigation control, and agro-climatic zoning. This study contributes to the development of climate-adapted and sustainable agricultural strategies in Türkiye by identifying agricultural regions with similar temperatures.
本文利用ERA5-Land数据获得的长期平均、最高和最低温度指标,对 rkiye地区30个主要农业流域进行了分类。利用主成分分析(PCA)和K-means聚类,从流域中形成了代表不同农业气候状况的4个热相干集群。集群1(沿海和低地盆地)温和而稳定的温度是集约化、高价值作物生产的理想条件。大的日变化幅度和低的最低温度是集群2(高海拔和大陆盆地)的特征,它代表了寒冷和易霜冻的农业区。平均温度和最高温度最高的是第三组(地中海、爱琴海和安纳托利亚东南部的盆地),这表示炎热、干燥的气候,有严重的高温和缺水风险。集群4具有混合的农业潜力和适度的热变率,是大陆性和海洋性气候之间的过渡区。在1950-2023年期间,所有农业盆地的温度趋势都是积极的,其中一些盆地(爱琴海沿岸、地中海沿岸、盖迪斯和GAP盆地)的平均温度增长率为每世纪2-7°C。分析表明,最低气温的上升速度快于最高气温,夜间变暖是整个 rkiye的主要气候信号。相关分析证实了各温度变量的站间一致性较强,表明区域尺度的大气动力对 rkiye温度模式的影响大于局地小气候效应。从农业气候学的角度来看,这些热集群为适应性农业规划提供了明确的空间框架,提供了有关热胁迫脆弱性、蒸散需求和霜冻风险的信息。研究结果表明,基于温度的聚类可以与作物适宜性绘图、灌溉控制和农业气候区划等其他政策工具相结合。该研究通过确定具有相似温度的农业区,有助于制定适应气候变化的可持续农业战略。
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引用次数: 0
Numerical simulation of CO2 migration and mineralization reaction characteristics in goaf 采空区CO2运移与矿化反应特征的数值模拟
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104220
Zheng Dai , Shugang Li , Biao Hu , Xiangguo Kong , Jingfei Zhang , Bing Zhu , Qian Wei
Coal mine goafs, as a special type of saline aquifer characterized by multi-fracture structures, remain insufficiently studied as potential CO2 storage sites. Therefore, this study integrates the fracture evolution of mining overlying strata with the TOUGHREACT numerical simulation to construct a two-dimensional idealized goaf model. A 50-day isothermal CO2 injection simulation was conducted to systematically assess pressure evolution, multiphase CO2 migration, and the acidification–mineral dissolution–precipitation processes driven by the fracture network, and to reveal the key differences in sequestration mechanisms between the goaf and a continuous geological body (CGB), clarifying the mineral evolution pathways. The results show that the fracture network significantly enhances CO2-brine contact efficiency, forming a dissolved CO2 distribution that envelops the surrounding minerals, and leading a triangular pressure field inside the goaf. In strongly acidic zones, primary minerals such as calcite and k-feldspar undergo rapid dissolution, releasing Ca2+, Mg2+, and Al3+, which promote the formation of secondary minerals such as smectite and quartz. At the same spatial and temporal scale, the CO2 dissolution storage capacity of the goaf exceeds that of the CGB by 3261 kg, demonstrating superior sequestration performance. These findings provide theoretical support for the engineering deployment of CO2 sequestration in such unconventional reservoirs.
煤矿采空区作为一种以多裂隙结构为特征的特殊咸水含水层,作为潜在的CO2储集场所,目前研究还不充分。因此,本研究将采动覆岩裂隙演化与TOUGHREACT数值模拟相结合,构建二维理想化采空区模型。通过50 d等温CO2注入模拟,系统评价了裂隙网络驱动下的压力演化、多相CO2运移和酸化-矿物溶解-沉淀过程,揭示了采空区与连续地质体(CGB)封存机制的关键差异,阐明了矿物演化路径。结果表明:裂缝网络显著提高了CO2-卤水接触效率,形成了一个包裹周围矿物的溶解CO2分布,并在采空区内部形成了一个三角形压力场;在强酸性带中,方解石、钾长石等原生矿物快速溶解,释放出Ca2+、Mg2+和Al3+,促进蒙脱石、石英等次生矿物的形成。在相同时空尺度下,采空区的CO2溶蚀库容量比CGB大3261 kg,表现出较好的固存性能。这些发现为此类非常规储层二氧化碳封存技术的工程部署提供了理论支持。
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Physics and Chemistry of the Earth
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