This study seeks to establish a reliable forecasting framework for Bottom-Hole Close Pressure (BHCP) in the Mishrif Formation of the West Qurna-1 oilfield, southern Iraq, through a comparative analysis of six time-series and machine learning models evaluated under realistic operational conditions. Monthly BHCP, production, and injection data spanning a 12-year period were analyzed using a combination of classical time-series models-including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), and Seasonal ARIMA with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX)–alongside advanced machine learning techniques, specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Model performance was assessed using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The LSTM achieved the best predictive performance, followed closely by Holt–Winters and SARIMA. Although SARIMAX produced slightly higher errors, it offered superior interpretability by explicitly modeling BHCP as a function of injection and production rates. In contrast, XGBoost overfitted severely, producing excellent training accuracy but poor generalization. Using the best-performing models (LSTM and SARIMAX), BHCP forecasts were generated under three different operational conditions. Scenario forecasting from 2022 to 2030 showed that increasing production by 40–80 % leads to a progressive pressure decline, whereas increasing injection by 40–80 % results in measurable pressure recovery. Under constant operational conditions, SARIMAX predicts a stable BHCP trajectory fluctuating around 2700–2800 psi. These findings demonstrate that reservoir pressure in the Mishrif Formation is highly sensitive to the production–injection balance and underscore the effectiveness of SARIMAX as a robust forecasting tool for reservoir-management decision-making.

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