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Forecasting the bottom hole closed pressure using time series analysis paradigms. A case study of the Mishrif reservoir at West Qurna oilfield, southern Iraq 利用时间序列分析范式预测井底关闭压力。以伊拉克南部West Qurna油田Mishrif油藏为例
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104283
Mustafa A. Abdulhasan, Amna M. Handhal, Alaa M. Al-Abadi
This study seeks to establish a reliable forecasting framework for Bottom-Hole Close Pressure (BHCP) in the Mishrif Formation of the West Qurna-1 oilfield, southern Iraq, through a comparative analysis of six time-series and machine learning models evaluated under realistic operational conditions. Monthly BHCP, production, and injection data spanning a 12-year period were analyzed using a combination of classical time-series models-including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), and Seasonal ARIMA with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX)–alongside advanced machine learning techniques, specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Model performance was assessed using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The LSTM achieved the best predictive performance, followed closely by Holt–Winters and SARIMA. Although SARIMAX produced slightly higher errors, it offered superior interpretability by explicitly modeling BHCP as a function of injection and production rates. In contrast, XGBoost overfitted severely, producing excellent training accuracy but poor generalization. Using the best-performing models (LSTM and SARIMAX), BHCP forecasts were generated under three different operational conditions. Scenario forecasting from 2022 to 2030 showed that increasing production by 40–80 % leads to a progressive pressure decline, whereas increasing injection by 40–80 % results in measurable pressure recovery. Under constant operational conditions, SARIMAX predicts a stable BHCP trajectory fluctuating around 2700–2800 psi. These findings demonstrate that reservoir pressure in the Mishrif Formation is highly sensitive to the production–injection balance and underscore the effectiveness of SARIMAX as a robust forecasting tool for reservoir-management decision-making.
本研究旨在通过在实际操作条件下评估的六种时间序列和机器学习模型的比较分析,为伊拉克南部西部Qurna-1油田Mishrif地层的井底闭合压力(BHCP)建立可靠的预测框架。利用经典时间序列模型(包括自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)、季节性ARIMA (SARIMA)和外生变量季节性ARIMA (SARIMAX)),结合先进的机器学习技术,特别是长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络和极端梯度增强(XGBoost),对12年期间的每月BHCP、产量和注入数据进行了分析。采用均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)对模型性能进行评估。LSTM的预测效果最好,紧随其后的是Holt-Winters和SARIMA。尽管SARIMAX的误差略高,但通过将BHCP明确建模为注入速率和生产速率的函数,提供了更好的可解释性。相比之下,XGBoost过拟合严重,训练精度很好,但泛化能力差。使用性能最好的模型(LSTM和SARIMAX),在三种不同的操作条件下生成了BHCP预测。从2022年到2030年的情景预测显示,产量增加40 - 80%会导致压力逐渐下降,而注入量增加40 - 80%则会带来可测量的压力恢复。在恒定的作业条件下,SARIMAX预测BHCP轨迹稳定在2700-2800 psi左右。这些发现表明,Mishrif地层的油藏压力对生产-注入平衡高度敏感,并强调了SARIMAX作为油藏管理决策的强大预测工具的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
A comparative study of developed rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves for Ganjam District, Odisha, India 印度奥里萨邦甘贾姆地区降雨强度-持续时间-频率曲线的比较研究
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104284
Padminee Samal , Sandeep Samantaray , Prakash C. Swain , Hashem Shafik Shakir , Zaher Mundher Yaseen
Inadequate availability of hydrological data, such as rainfall and runoff patterns over regions like Ganjam district in Odisha state, India, makes it challenging for hydrologists to effectively plan, organize, and design water resources projects. Hence, there is need for the development of rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves using specific empirical methods. To develop an empirical relationship for Ganjam, in the state of Odisha, daily rainfall data were collected from 22 raingauge stations for the period from 1995 to 2018. The intensity of rainfall values was designed for shorter durations for various return periods, including 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years, 100 years, and 200 years. The representative IDF curves developed using the least squares method were compared with the IDF curves developed using Kothyari and Garde's method. The findings showed that, the IDF generated on a regional constant basis by Kothyari and Garde's equation underestimates the rainfall intensities for 2-year and 5-year return periods. An application of the findings was made to predict the runoff for a given set of rainfall derived from the IDF curves using SCS-Curve Number method. The graphs were developed using the IDF curves applicable for a region under consideration and using SCS-CN method and known as the Runoff Depth-Rainfall Frequency-Rainfall Duration curves. Hence, in areas, where data availability is limited, the created IDF relationship can be utilized to forecast rainfall and runoff depths for the purpose of planning, design and operation of various water resources projects.
水文数据的可用性不足,例如印度奥里萨邦甘贾姆区等地区的降雨和径流模式,使水文学家难以有效地规划、组织和设计水资源项目。因此,有必要利用具体的经验方法开发降雨强度-持续时间-频率(IDF)曲线。为了建立奥里萨邦甘贾姆的经验关系,从1995年至2018年期间从22个雨台站收集了日降雨量数据。在2年、5年、10年、20年、50年、100年和200年的不同回归期,降雨强度值设计为较短的持续时间。将最小二乘法得到的具有代表性的IDF曲线与Kothyari和Garde方法得到的IDF曲线进行了比较。研究结果表明,Kothyari和Garde公式在区域常数基础上产生的IDF低估了2年和5年回归期的降雨强度。将这些发现应用于利用scs -曲线数方法从IDF曲线中得到的一组给定降雨的径流预测。这些图表是使用适用于所考虑区域的IDF曲线并使用SCS-CN方法绘制的,称为径流深度-降雨频率-降雨持续时间曲线。因此,在数据有限的地区,可以利用所建立的IDF关系来预测降雨量和径流深度,以供各种水资源项目的规划、设计和运行。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the impact of microplastic polymer wastes on environmental fate and human health risks 评估微塑料聚合物废物对环境命运和人类健康风险的影响
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104246
Maria Joseph Angelaa Lincy , Senthil Kumar Babu , Saghya Infant Shofia , Senthilkumar Nangan , Balamurugan Paneerselvam
As plastics keep getting manufactured and wasted in enormous amounts, microplastic pollution is becoming a serious environmental and human health issue. This review consolidates new developments concerning the sources, distribution, detection, and physiological effects of microplastics. Microplastics are derived from the breakdown of large plastic litter and from direct industrial sources like cosmetics, textiles, and tire tread particles, infiltrating aquatic, atmospheric, and terrestrial environments. Recent research illustrates that microplastics have the ability to pass through biological barriers, accumulate in various human organs, and induce oxidative stress, release of inflammatory cytokines, mitochondrial impairment, and changes in lipid metabolism offering novel evidence for physiological causation of toxicity. Parameters controlling environmental transport are particle size, form, density, and ecological factors like wind patterns, ocean currents, and precipitation. Human exposure is mainly via ingestion, inhalation, and dermal uptake, with recent biomonitoring verifying microplastics in blood, placenta, breast milk, and lung tissues. Analytical advancements such as Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR), Raman, and pyrolysis–GC/MS methods have enhanced detection sensitivity but continue to pose challenges with respect to contamination control, nanoplastic quantification, and standardization of methods. Recent studies also investigate synergistic toxicity between microplastics and co-contaminants (e.g., heavy metals, persistent organic pollutants) and examine potential transgenerational and microbiome-mediated effects. By synthesizing these novel findings, this review presents an updated understanding of microplastic contamination and its mechanistic connections to human physiology, with the goal of informing future research direction and evidence-based environmental policy.
随着塑料的大量生产和浪费,微塑料污染正在成为一个严重的环境和人类健康问题。本文综述了微塑料的来源、分布、检测和生理效应等方面的最新进展。微塑料来自大量塑料垃圾的分解和化妆品、纺织品和轮胎胎面颗粒等直接工业来源,渗透到水生、大气和陆地环境中。最近的研究表明,微塑料具有穿过生物屏障,在人体各器官中积累的能力,并引起氧化应激,炎症细胞因子的释放,线粒体损伤和脂质代谢的变化,为毒性的生理原因提供了新的证据。控制环境迁移的参数包括颗粒大小、形态、密度以及风型、洋流和降水等生态因素。人类接触微塑料主要通过摄入、吸入和皮肤吸收,最近的生物监测证实血液、胎盘、母乳和肺组织中存在微塑料。傅里叶变换红外(FTIR)、拉曼和热解- gc /MS等分析方法的进步提高了检测灵敏度,但在污染控制、纳米塑料定量和方法标准化方面仍然存在挑战。最近的研究还调查了微塑料与共污染物(例如重金属、持久性有机污染物)之间的协同毒性,并检查了潜在的跨代和微生物组介导的影响。通过综合这些新发现,本文综述了对微塑料污染及其与人体生理机制联系的最新认识,旨在为未来的研究方向和基于证据的环境政策提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Soil-structure interaction and uplift bearing capacity: A study on low-header CEP single pile foundations 土-结构相互作用与抗拔承载力:低头CEP单桩基础研究
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104255
Muhammad Rizwan , Sobia Naseem , Muhammad Akhtar Tarar
Low-header Concrete Expanded-Plate (CEP) single pile foundations play a critical role in supporting renewable energy structures, transmission line supports, and seismic-resilient infrastructure. Their unique geometry and interaction with surrounding soil make uplift resistance a key design consideration. Despite growing application, research on their uplift behavior remains fragmented, with studies often focusing on isolated mechanisms, simplified analytical models, or site-specific experiments. This critical and state-of-the-art review synthesizes current knowledge on soil–structure interaction (SSI) and uplift bearing capacity of low-header CEP piles, integrating experimental findings, numerical simulations, and analytical models across diverse soil conditions. The review evaluates key mechanisms governing uplift resistance, including plate–soil interlocking, shaft shear transfer, and nonlinear soil behavior, while highlighting inconsistencies, methodological limitations, and gaps in existing research. Furthermore, it examines field validation studies, centrifuge testing, and modern numerical approaches, identifying opportunities for reliability-based design, machine-learning-assisted prediction, and adaptive monitoring of pile performance. By consolidating dispersed evidence and providing a structured evaluation of SSI effects, this review offers guidance for improved design strategies and outlines directions for future research to enhance the reliability and efficiency of CEP pile foundations under uplift-dominated loading.
低头混凝土膨胀板(CEP)单桩基础在支持可再生能源结构、输电线路支撑和抗震基础设施方面发挥着至关重要的作用。它们独特的几何形状和与周围土壤的相互作用使抗隆起成为设计的关键考虑因素。尽管应用越来越广泛,但对其隆升行为的研究仍然零散,研究往往集中在孤立的机制、简化的分析模型或特定地点的实验上。这篇重要的、最先进的综述综合了当前关于土-结构相互作用(SSI)和低头CEP桩的上拔承载能力的知识,整合了不同土壤条件下的实验结果、数值模拟和分析模型。该综述评估了控制隆升阻力的关键机制,包括板土联锁、轴剪切转移和非线性土壤行为,同时强调了现有研究中的不一致性、方法局限性和空白。此外,它还检查了现场验证研究、离心机测试和现代数值方法,确定了基于可靠性的设计、机器学习辅助预测和桩性能自适应监测的机会。通过整合分散的证据和对SSI效应的结构化评估,本综述为改进设计策略提供了指导,并为未来的研究方向提供了指导,以提高CEP桩基在抬升主导荷载下的可靠性和效率。
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引用次数: 0
BAMPP: A novel Bayesian network enhanced by average marginal posterior probabilities to identify critical ground truth meteorological stations for drought monitoring BAMPP:一种基于平均边际后验概率增强的新型贝叶斯网络,用于识别干旱监测的关键地面真实气象站
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104215
Rizwan Niaz , Saman Munir , Muhammad Ahmad Raza , Rifat Tur , Sadegh Partani , Ali Danandeh Mehr
This study introduces a new approach for identifying critical meteorological stations essential for analyzing spatiotemporal dynamics of drought events at regional scale. We propose a Bayesian network enhanced by Average Marginal Posterior Probabilities (AMPP) to evaluate stations based on frequency, severity, and persistence of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at multiple timescales (SPI-3, SPI-6, and SPI-12). The method is demonstrated across the province of Ankara, Türkiye, effectively capturing the probabilistic relationships and interdependencies governing drought propagation among stations. Our analysis revealed distinct spatiotemporal patterns across the region at all time scales. For short-term droughts (SPI-3), critical station identity varied seasonally, indicating localized dynamics; for instance, Esenboga was key station in February, March, July, October and December, while Beypazari was influential in the other months. In contrast, for medium- and long-term droughts (SPI-6, SPI-12), Beypazari was the most critical station across all months, establishing it as the representative station for long-term drought monitoring in the region. This method provides a robust, probabilistic tool for optimizing drought monitoring networks and enhancing regional water resource management.
该研究提出了一种新的方法来确定区域尺度干旱事件时空动态分析所需的关键气象站。基于标准化降水指数(SPI)在多个时间尺度(SPI-3、SPI-6和SPI-12)上的频率、严重程度和持久性,我们提出了一个基于平均边际后验概率(AMPP)增强的贝叶斯网络来评估台站。该方法在土耳其安卡拉省各地进行了演示,有效地捕捉了各监测站之间干旱传播的概率关系和相互依赖性。我们的分析揭示了该地区在所有时间尺度上的不同时空模式。对于短期干旱(SPI-3),关键站身份随季节变化,表明局部动态;例如,埃森博加在2月、3月、7月、10月和12月是关键站点,而贝帕扎里在其他月份具有影响力。而对于中期和长期干旱(SPI-6、SPI-12),贝帕扎里是所有月份中最关键的站点,是该地区长期干旱监测的代表性站点。该方法为优化干旱监测网络和加强区域水资源管理提供了一个可靠的概率工具。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating Conventional and machine learning approaches with seismic inversion for optimized porosity estimation in heterogeneous siliciclastic rocks 将传统方法和机器学习方法与地震反演相结合,优化非均质硅塑性岩石孔隙度估算
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104248
Muyyassar Hussain , Urooj Shakir , Zohaib Naseer , Muhammad Raiees Amjad , Farooq Arshad , Muhammad Kamal , Ahmed E. Radwan
Heterogeneous siliciclastic rocks pose significant challenges in reservoir characterization, where such heterogeneity is often not sufficiently captured by conventional petrophysical techniques alone. In this work, an innovative integrative framework for optimizing porosity estimation in complex depositional conditions is presented, combining sophisticated machine learning (ML) methods with traditional seismic inversion, considering the extreme heterogeneity of the Lower Goru Formation (LGF), Tajjal gas field, Gambat area, Lower Indus Basin (LIB), Pakistan. Specifically, a probabilistic neural network (PNN) is employed as a sophisticated deep-learning technique and coupled with well logs and 3D seismic datasets to develop an optimized predictive model for porosity estimation within the C-Interval of the LGF. A three-dimensional variation of porosity, calculated using a seismic inverted PNN map, ranges from -10 % to 13%. The petrophysical analysis began with a conventional approach based on empirical formulas, and the computed properties were then calibrated and cross-matched with log analysis performed using machine learning algorithms. Along with a limited 3D seismic dataset, three wells were used for petrophysical evaluation with the conventional technique, whereas in the supervised ML approach, two wells were used for training while one was kept as a test well. Among the models applied, the Extra Trees Regressor (ETR) provided low Vshl values and high effective porosity (PHIE), achieving over 99% R2 with the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) score. When compared to conventional interpretation at the test well, the Random Forest Regressor (RFR) provided water saturation (Sw) estimates with approximately 100% accuracy, demonstrating a relatively lower deviation than traditional petrophysical methods. Thus, the porosity values obtained from the integrated approach show strong agreement, reinforcing confidence in their reliability for future exploration endeavors in heterogeneous siliciclastic formations. Consequently, the results of this research can be applied to similar geological settings, particularly those characterized by alternating shale–sandstone layers enriched with hydrocarbons and exhibiting thickness variations with lateral extents.
非均质硅质碎屑岩对储层表征提出了重大挑战,仅靠常规岩石物理技术往往无法充分捕捉到这种非均质性。在这项工作中,考虑到巴基斯坦下印度河盆地(LIB) Tajjal气田下Goru组(LGF)的极端非均质性,提出了一个创新的综合框架,将复杂的机器学习(ML)方法与传统的地震反演相结合,用于优化复杂沉积条件下的孔隙度估算。具体来说,将概率神经网络(PNN)作为一种复杂的深度学习技术,结合测井和3D地震数据集,开发出一种优化的预测模型,用于LGF c层段的孔隙度估计。利用地震反向PNN图计算的孔隙度三维变化范围为- 10%至13%。岩石物理分析首先采用基于经验公式的常规方法,然后使用机器学习算法对计算出的性质进行校准,并与测井分析交叉匹配。利用有限的三维地震数据集,采用常规技术使用了3口井进行岩石物理评价,而在监督式机器学习方法中,使用了2口井进行训练,1口井作为测试井。在应用的模型中,Extra Trees regression (ETR)提供了较低的Vshl值和较高的有效孔隙度(PHIE), R2超过99%,均方误差(MSE)评分最低。与测试井的常规解释相比,随机森林回归(RFR)提供的含水饱和度(Sw)估计精度接近100%,与传统岩石物理方法相比,偏差相对较小。因此,通过综合方法获得的孔隙度值显示出很强的一致性,增强了对未来非均质硅屑地层勘探工作可靠性的信心。因此,这项研究的结果可以应用于类似的地质环境,特别是那些以富含碳氢化合物的页岩-砂岩交替层为特征,并表现出横向厚度变化的地质环境。
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引用次数: 0
Integrated source apportionment, risk assessment, and probabilistic modeling of potentially toxic elements in soils from an undeveloped metallogenic region, northwest China 西北欠发达成矿区土壤中潜在有毒元素的综合来源分配、风险评估和概率模型
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104288
Qiong Han , Wenfeng Wang , Tongyang Zhao , Liuyuan Jin , Yangshuang Wang , Shiming Yang , Yunhui Zhang
While risk zones of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) are generally associated with intensive anthropogenic disturbances, undeveloped metallogenic regions (UMRs) feature naturally high PTE concentrations that have received limited scientific attention. To fill this gap, this study investigated the sources and quantified the contributions of PTEs in the soils of a UMR in Northwest China, while assessing their associated ecological-health risks. A total of 480 soil samples were collected for analysis. A multi-method framework combining geochemical baseline values (GBVs), Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF), integrated pollution indices, and probabilistic health risk modeling was established. The results revealed that Mercury (Hg) exhibited the highest exceedance rate (13.33 %) compared with other PTEs. PTEs were predominantly derived from natural sources: soil parent material (61.91 %), Pb enrichment (22.98 %), Cu mineralization (10.50 %), and hydrothermal processes (4.61 %), suggesting a primarily geogenic origin. Ecological risk assessment identified Hg as the main contributor to ecological risk. Overall, soil quality in the study area ranged from unpolluted to slightly polluted, with localized high-risk zones mainly distributed in the eastern region. Health risk assessment showed that chromium (Cr) and cobalt (Co) were the major contributors to non-carcinogenic risk, while Cr dominated the carcinogenic risk. Notably, 49.32 % of the samples posed unacceptable non-carcinogenic risks to children, 10.01 % and 0.90 % posed unacceptable carcinogenic risks to children and adults, respectively. These results highlighted that natural metallogenic processes alone could generate unacceptable risks to ecological systems and vulnerable populations. Based on these findings, long-term monitoring of Cr, Co, and Hg in soils near PTE-enriched areas is recommended to mitigate potential ecological and health threats. The study results can provide a scientific basis for the management of soil PTEs in high-background metallogenic regions worldwide.
虽然潜在有毒元素(PTE)的危险区通常与强烈的人为干扰有关,但未开发的成矿区(UMRs)具有天然的高PTE浓度,但受到的科学关注有限。为了填补这一空白,本研究调查了中国西北一个UMR土壤中pte的来源并量化了其贡献,同时评估了其相关的生态健康风险。共收集了480份土壤样本进行分析。建立了地球化学基线值(GBVs)、正矩阵分解(PMF)、综合污染指数和概率健康风险建模相结合的多方法框架。结果表明,汞(Hg)的超标率最高,为13.33%。pte主要来源于土壤母质(61.91%)、Pb富集(22.98%)、Cu矿化(10.50%)和热液作用(4.61%),以地成因为主。生态风险评价认为汞是生态风险的主要因素。总体而言,研究区土壤质量从未污染到轻度污染,局部高危区主要分布在东部地区。健康风险评价结果显示,铬(Cr)和钴(Co)是造成非致癌性风险的主要因素,而铬(Cr)是致癌风险的主要因素。值得注意的是,49.32%的样品对儿童具有不可接受的非致癌风险,10.01%和0.90%的样品对儿童和成人具有不可接受的致癌风险。这些结果表明,自然成矿过程本身可能对生态系统和脆弱人群产生不可接受的风险。基于这些发现,建议对pte富集地区附近土壤中的Cr、Co和Hg进行长期监测,以减轻潜在的生态和健康威胁。研究结果可为全球高背景成矿地区土壤pte的管理提供科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Reconstructing seismic landslide spatial records in data-scarce Indian Himalayas: a polygon-based inventory and susceptibility assessment for the 1999 Chamoli earthquake 在数据稀缺的印度喜马拉雅地区重建地震滑坡空间记录:1999年Chamoli地震的多边形盘存和易感性评估
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104243
Shivani Joshi , Akshat Vashistha , Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian , Ali P. Yunus
The seismically active Himalayas are highly prone to secondary hazards such as earthquake-induced landslides (EIL), which pose serious risks to local populations and reshape mountainous terrains. However, spatial data on historic EIL events in India remain limited. This study presents the first polygon-based landslide inventory for the 1999 Mw 6.6 Chamoli earthquake in Uttarakhand, improving significantly upon earlier point-based datasets. A total of 73 landslides were identified and mapped across the Chamoli and Rudraprayag districts, with validations through field surveys and archival reports. The study employed the frequency ratio method for landslide susceptibility mapping and evaluated the influence of topographic, geological, land-use, and tectonic factors. Despite the 25-year gap since the event, the landslide inventory aligns well with global trends in landslide size and frequency, confirming its completeness. These findings highlight the significance of historical remote sensing for reconstructing past events, supporting seismic hazard assessment, landscape evolution studies, and disaster risk reduction.
地震活跃的喜马拉雅地区极易发生地震引发的山体滑坡(EIL)等次生灾害,这给当地居民带来了严重的风险,并重塑了山区地形。然而,印度历史上EIL事件的空间数据仍然有限。本研究提出了1999年北阿坎德邦6.6 Mw Chamoli地震的第一个基于多边形的滑坡清单,在早期基于点的数据集的基础上有了显着改进。在Chamoli和Rudraprayag地区共确定和绘制了73个滑坡,并通过实地调查和档案报告进行了验证。采用频率比法进行滑坡易感性填图,评价地形、地质、土地利用、构造等因素对滑坡易感性填图的影响。尽管距离该事件有25年的差距,但滑坡清单与滑坡规模和频率的全球趋势保持一致,证实了其完整性。这些发现强调了历史遥感在重建过去事件、支持地震危害评估、景观演变研究和减少灾害风险方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Experiments and simulations of gas slippage effect on gas permeability and gas production in methane-hydrate-bearing montmorillonite sediments 含甲烷水合物蒙脱石沉积物气滑脱对渗透率和产气量影响的实验与模拟
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104309
Qingkai Gu , Zhaoran Wu , Guijing Li , Jianhua Geng
Gas flow in deep-sea natural gas hydrate reservoirs is significantly influenced by gas slippage, particularly in montmorillonite-rich clay sediments characterized by high porosity (>0.4), low permeability (<2.3 mD), and micro-nano scale pore spaces. Under these conditions, clay expansion markedly enhances the gas slippage effect. Therefore, this study selects montmorillonite sediments as the representative research medium. Understanding the gas slippage effect on permeability and production rate is crucial for gas hydrate exploitation. By fitting experimental data and eliminating the gas slippage effect on permeability, a relationship was derived between gas permeability and decomposed water content, effective stress, gas slippage effect, and porosity. A gas production model for methane-hydrate-bearing montmorillonite sediments was developed accounting for gas slippage effect. Numerical simulation results indicate that the change in gas permeability is not a linear decline during the depressurization decomposition of methane hydrates. Instead, there are periods where gas permeability increases or the rate of decline slows. The contributions of gas slippage compensation, effective stress, decomposed water, and the reduction in hydrate saturation to the changes in gas permeability were analyzed in details. The average gas production rates for each stage shows that gas slippage compensation enhances permeability and increases gas production.
深海天然气水合物储层中的气体流动受气体滑脱的影响较大,特别是在高孔隙度(0.4)、低渗透率(2.3 mD)、孔隙空间为微纳米尺度的富蒙脱石粘土沉积物中。在此条件下,粘土膨胀显著增强了气滑效应。因此,本研究选择蒙脱石沉积物作为代表性研究介质。了解气滑脱对渗透率和产量的影响对天然气水合物开发至关重要。通过拟合实验数据,剔除气滑脱效应对渗透率的影响,推导出气藏渗透率与分解含水量、有效应力、气滑脱效应、孔隙度之间的关系。建立了考虑气滑效应的含甲烷水合物蒙脱石沉积产气模型。数值模拟结果表明,在甲烷水合物减压分解过程中,渗透率的变化不是线性下降的。相反,有一些时期,气体渗透率增加或下降速度减慢。详细分析了气滑脱补偿、有效应力、分解水和水合物饱和度降低对渗透率变化的贡献。每一级的平均产气量表明,气滑补偿提高了渗透率,增加了产量。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial discrepancy of stable isotopes in river water and groundwater, eastern Qaidam Basin: Controlling factors and implications for hydrological cycle 柴达木盆地东部河流和地下水稳定同位素空间差异:水文循环的控制因素及意义
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104251
Nuan Yang , Xinming Song , Liang Guo , Shouchuan Zhang , Guangcai Wang
Stable isotope-based hydrological cycle is the most commonly employed approach for water resource management. Qaidam Basin is situated near the summer monsoon boundary and exhibits particular hydrological sensitivity to climate change. Investigating the spatial variations and controlling factors of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in water bodies in the eastern margin of the Qaidam Basin is conducive to elucidate hydrological processes and response to climate change. Focusing on the Xiangride and Delingha areas, the study combined the stable isotopic analysis (δD, δ18O, d-excess) in river water and groundwater and water vapor transport trajectories modeling (HYSPLIT model) to identify water sources, river water-groundwater interaction, and moisture sources and transport trajectories. The Xiangride and Delingha areas exist both commonalities and distinctions in the hydrological cycle processes. The relationships among δD, δ18O, and d-excess suggest that river water and groundwater in two areas derive from atmospheric precipitation generated in the surrounding mountainous areas and experience semblable evaporation intensities. River water-groundwater interaction follow a consistent pattern: river water infiltrates and recharges groundwater in the piedmont zone, followed by groundwater discharges into river water in the fine-soil plain. The combination of d-excess analysis and HYSPLIT modeling reveals that the moisture sources generated precipitation in two regions are controlled by the Westerlies, while the Delingha area is further influenced by local recycled moisture from the plain area. The study results provide a critical scientific basis for managing regional river water and groundwater resources or even entire Qaidam Basin.
基于稳定同位素的水循环是水资源管理中最常用的方法。柴达木盆地位于夏季风边界附近,对气候变化具有特殊的水文敏感性。研究柴达木盆地东缘水体氢、氧同位素的空间变化及其控制因素,有助于阐明水文过程及其对气候变化的响应。以相日勒和德令哈地区为研究对象,采用稳定同位素分析(δD、δ18O、d-excess)和水汽输送轨迹模拟(HYSPLIT模型)相结合的方法,对流域水源、河流-地下水相互作用、水汽来源和输送轨迹进行了识别。相日勒和德令哈地区在水循环过程中既有共性又有差异性。δD、δ18O和d-excess之间的关系表明,两个地区的河流和地下水来源于周边山区的大气降水,蒸发强度相似。河流与地下水的相互作用遵循一致的模式:在山前地区,河流水渗透并补给地下水,然后在细土平原地区,地下水向河流中排放。结合d-excess分析和HYSPLIT模型分析发现,两区降水的水汽来源均受西风带控制,而德令哈地区则进一步受到平原地区局部再循环水汽的影响。研究结果为区域河流和地下水资源乃至整个柴达木盆地的管理提供了重要的科学依据。
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Physics and Chemistry of the Earth
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