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Experimental study of the intrinsic specific energy of water-induced softening rocks under confining pressure condition 围压条件下水致软化岩石本征比能试验研究
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104218
Mingchen Ding , Mingming He , Yangping Yao
Rocks undergo physical and chemical changes on account of interplay with water, their material characteristics undergo deterioration. This behavior is characterized as water-induced softening. Drilling in water-bearing rock layers is more susceptible to engineering accidents such as collapse and instability under the influence of ground stress. This study conducted drilling experiments on four types of rocks at three levels of saturation and four confining pressures to understand the mechanical response of rock in drilling engineering. The recorded drilling parameters were used to calculate the drilling strength (S) and drilling specific energy (E). A drilling softening coefficient (K) was defined based on the E. The relationship between E and S under varying confining pressures and saturation levels was examined. In addition, the depth-dependent evolution of K during drilling was analyzed. These analyses were then used to investigate the mechanism of water-induced rock softening under different confining pressures. The strength parameters of rocks at different saturation levels were introduced to confirm the dependability of the presented K. Experimental findings indicated that K decreases as saturation rises, while it increases with higher confining pressure. Among the rocks, red sandstone exhibited the largest reduction and increase as 46 % and 32 %. A rebound phenomenon in the K occurred with higher confining pressure for limestone, red sandstone and shale. This phenomenon is associated with the coupled effects of water-induced rock degradation and drilling-induced rock failure. These findings offer new insights into the study of water–rock–drill interactions. They contribute to improved efficiency and safety when drilling through deep water-rich rock formations.
岩石由于与水的相互作用而发生物理和化学变化,其物质特性变质。这种行为的特征是水致软化。含水岩层在地应力作用下,更容易发生坍塌、失稳等工程事故。为了了解岩石在钻井工程中的力学响应,本研究对四种岩石在三种饱和度和四种围压下进行了钻井实验。根据记录的钻孔参数计算钻孔强度(S)和钻孔比能(E)。根据E定义了钻井软化系数K,考察了不同围压和饱和度下E与S的关系。此外,还分析了钻井过程中K随深度的演化规律。在此基础上,研究了不同围压条件下水致岩石软化的机理。通过引入不同饱和度下岩石强度参数来验证K值的可靠性。实验结果表明,K值随饱和度的升高而减小,随围压的升高而增大。岩石中,红砂岩的减少和增加幅度最大,分别为46%和32%。在围压较高的情况下,石灰岩、红砂岩和页岩在K区出现反弹现象。这种现象与水致岩石退化和钻井致岩石破坏的耦合作用有关。这些发现为水-岩-钻相互作用的研究提供了新的见解。在钻探富含水的深层岩层时,它们有助于提高效率和安全性。
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引用次数: 0
Vertical distribution of different phase particles in summer topographic clouds over Liupan Mountain 六盘山夏季地形云中不同相粒子的垂直分布
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104212
Tong Lin , Zhiliang Shu , Peiyun Deng , Lei Tian , Yanqiao Sun , Le Jia , Ning Cao , Hanbing Bai
This study uses observation data from Ka-band millimeter-wave cloud radar (reflectivity factor, Doppler radial velocity, spectral width) and temperature profiles detected by microwave radiometers, and adopts a fuzzy logic algorithm to identify and retrieve cloud particle phases in orographic clouds over the Liupan Mountains. The results show that the cloud particle phases in the Liupan Mountains present a vertical distribution of “liquid in the lower layer, mixed phase in the middle layer, and ice crystals in the upper layer”, which is the result of the combined effects of orographic lifting, stratification structure, and local ascending airflows. Moreover, the cloud radar observation data exhibit obvious characteristics of changes with cloud particle phase states, which can serve as a basis for phase identification. Changing the feature threshold has a significant impact on the retrieval results. This study adjusts the threshold locally in combination with regional terrain and climatic characteristics, making the identification results more reasonable, consistent with the actual situation, and improving the applicability of the data. It is of great significance and application value for local weather modification operations.
本研究利用ka波段毫米波云雷达的观测数据(反射率因子、多普勒径向速度、谱宽)和微波辐射计测得的温度剖面,采用模糊逻辑算法对六盘山地形云中云粒子相进行识别和检索。结果表明:六盘山云粒相垂直分布呈现“下层液体、中层混合、上层冰晶”的格局,是地形抬升、分层结构和局地上升气流共同作用的结果;此外,云雷达观测数据具有明显的随云粒子相态变化的特征,可作为相位识别的依据。改变特征阈值对检索结果有很大影响。本研究结合区域地形和气候特征局部调整阈值,使识别结果更加合理,符合实际情况,提高了数据的适用性。对局部人工影响天气作业具有重要意义和应用价值。
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引用次数: 0
BAMPP: A novel Bayesian network enhanced by average marginal posterior probabilities to identify critical ground truth meteorological stations for drought monitoring BAMPP:一种基于平均边际后验概率增强的新型贝叶斯网络,用于识别干旱监测的关键地面真实气象站
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104215
Rizwan Niaz , Saman Munir , Muhammad Ahmad Raza , Rifat Tur , Sadegh Partani , Ali Danandeh Mehr
This study introduces a new approach for identifying critical meteorological stations essential for analyzing spatiotemporal dynamics of drought events at regional scale. We propose a Bayesian network enhanced by Average Marginal Posterior Probabilities (AMPP) to evaluate stations based on frequency, severity, and persistence of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at multiple timescales (SPI-3, SPI-6, and SPI-12). The method is demonstrated across the province of Ankara, Türkiye, effectively capturing the probabilistic relationships and interdependencies governing drought propagation among stations. Our analysis revealed distinct spatiotemporal patterns across the region at all time scales. For short-term droughts (SPI-3), critical station identity varied seasonally, indicating localized dynamics; for instance, Esenboga was key station in February, March, July, October and December, while Beypazari was influential in the other months. In contrast, for medium- and long-term droughts (SPI-6, SPI-12), Beypazari was the most critical station across all months, establishing it as the representative station for long-term drought monitoring in the region. This method provides a robust, probabilistic tool for optimizing drought monitoring networks and enhancing regional water resource management.
该研究提出了一种新的方法来确定区域尺度干旱事件时空动态分析所需的关键气象站。基于标准化降水指数(SPI)在多个时间尺度(SPI-3、SPI-6和SPI-12)上的频率、严重程度和持久性,我们提出了一个基于平均边际后验概率(AMPP)增强的贝叶斯网络来评估台站。该方法在土耳其安卡拉省各地进行了演示,有效地捕捉了各监测站之间干旱传播的概率关系和相互依赖性。我们的分析揭示了该地区在所有时间尺度上的不同时空模式。对于短期干旱(SPI-3),关键站身份随季节变化,表明局部动态;例如,埃森博加在2月、3月、7月、10月和12月是关键站点,而贝帕扎里在其他月份具有影响力。而对于中期和长期干旱(SPI-6、SPI-12),贝帕扎里是所有月份中最关键的站点,是该地区长期干旱监测的代表性站点。该方法为优化干旱监测网络和加强区域水资源管理提供了一个可靠的概率工具。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the characteristics of rainfall variation in the Huaihe River Basin based on multi-method analysis 基于多方法分析的淮河流域降水变化特征研究
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104213
Pengxin Cao , Chengcheng Xu , Chuiyu Lu , Kaixuan Guo , Ao Sun , Xinang Li
Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change, extreme weather events have become increasingly frequent, posing significant challenges to watershed water resource management and ecological security due to altered precipitation patterns. To comprehensively reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin, this study integrates multiple analytical methods, including the Mann-Kendall trend test, wavelet transform, and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA), to systematically analyze monthly precipitation data from 16 representative meteorological stations across the basin during the period 1923–2023. The results indicate a general upward trend in precipitation, with particularly notable increases observed in the upstream regions. Spatially, precipitation intensity exhibits a gradient increase from the northwest to the southeast. Wavelet analysis identifies significant periodic fluctuations at both 2–12 years (interannual to decadal) and 20–40 years (multi-decadal) time scales. The Mann-Kendall test detects multiple abrupt change points, predominantly after the year 2000, indicating regime shifts in precipitation dynamics. The MFDFA and its improved variant, wavelet-based MFDFA (W-MFDFA), reveal widespread multifractal characteristics in the precipitation series, with pronounced nonlinear behaviors observed at specific stations such as Fuyang and Zhoukou. These findings enhance the understanding of regional climate variability mechanisms and provide theoretical support and decision-making references for optimized water resource allocation and flood risk management.
在全球气候变化加剧的背景下,极端天气事件日益频繁,由于降水模式的改变,给流域水资源管理和生态安全带来了重大挑战。为了全面揭示淮河流域降水的时空演变特征,本研究采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、小波变换、多重分形去趋势波动分析(MFDFA)等多种分析方法,对淮河流域16个代表性气象站1923-2023年逐月降水资料进行了系统分析。结果表明,降水总体呈上升趋势,其中上游地区的增加尤为显著。从空间上看,降水强度从西北向东南呈梯度增加。小波分析发现在2-12年(年际至年代际)和20-40年(多年代际)时间尺度上存在显著的周期波动。Mann-Kendall检验检测到多个突变点,主要是在2000年之后,表明降水动力学的状态变化。MFDFA及其改进的基于小波的MFDFA (W-MFDFA)在降水序列中表现出广泛的多重分形特征,在阜阳和周口等特定站点表现出明显的非线性特征。研究结果有助于进一步认识区域气候变率机制,为水资源优化配置和洪水风险管理提供理论支持和决策参考。
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引用次数: 0
Indirect mineral carbonation of CO2 using municipal incinerator bottom ash 利用城市焚烧炉底灰间接矿物碳酸化CO2
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104209
Zahra Sarkarpour, Azadeh Hemmati
Rising atmospheric CO2 levels and their impact on global warming necessitate the development of efficient carbon capture and storage (CCS) methods. Among these, mineral carbonation offers a safe and permanent solution. This study investigates indirect CO2 mineralization using bottom ash from a municipal waste incinerator as a calcium source. The effects of temperature, reaction time, and acid molarity on extraction efficiency were examined. Bottom ash was treated with hydrochloric acid (1 M and 2 M) at 80 °C for 30, 60, and 120 min. The resulting leachate underwent a pH-swing process using 1 M NaOH to precipitate impurities. A purified, calcium-rich solution was then reacted with Na2CO3 produced by bubbling CO2 through 2 M NaOH to precipitate calcium carbonate. Laboratory results show that low pH favors the removal of iron and other impurities, while high pH (9–10) is optimal for calcium carbonate precipitation. Under these conditions, a carbonation efficiency of approximately 45 % and a product purity of 96 % were achieved, as confirmed by XRF analysis. Mass balance data indicate that 12 g of ash treated with 400 mL of HCl yields 2.3 g of calcium carbonate. ICP analysis identified 80 °C, 1 M acid, and 120 min as optimal parameters for maximum extraction efficiency. This study provides a scalable method for converting waste ash into valuable CaCO3 while capturing CO2, offering both environmental and economic benefits.
不断上升的大气二氧化碳水平及其对全球变暖的影响要求开发高效的碳捕获和储存(CCS)方法。其中,矿物碳酸化提供了一种安全和永久的解决方案。本研究利用城市垃圾焚烧炉底灰作为钙源,研究间接二氧化碳矿化。考察了温度、反应时间和酸的摩尔浓度对萃取效率的影响。底灰分别用盐酸(1 M和2 M)在80℃下处理30、60和120 min。所得的渗滤液采用1 M NaOH进行ph -摆动过程沉淀杂质。然后将纯化的富钙溶液与通过2 M NaOH鼓泡CO2产生的Na2CO3反应,沉淀碳酸钙。实验结果表明,低pH有利于铁和其他杂质的去除,而高pH(9-10)最有利于碳酸钙的沉淀。XRF分析证实,在此条件下,碳化效率约为45%,产品纯度为96%。质量平衡数据表明,用400ml盐酸处理12g灰分,可产生2.3 g碳酸钙。ICP分析确定80°C, 1 M酸,120 min为最大萃取效率的最佳参数。本研究提供了一种可扩展的方法,将废灰转化为有价值的CaCO3,同时捕获二氧化碳,提供环境和经济效益。
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引用次数: 0
Insightful frameworks for zeta potential of various clays in different brine compositions 不同卤水成分中各种粘土的zeta电位的深刻框架
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104219
Junhou Wang , Farag M.A. Altalbawy , Suranjana V. Mayani , R. Manjunatha , Debasish Shit , M. Nirmala , Ajay Sharma , Sarbeswara Hota , Barno Abdullaeva , Fadhil Faez Sead , Khursheed Muzammil , Mehrdad Mottaghi
Zeta potential is essentially the electrical charge on tiny particles suspended in a liquid. This charge is super important because it controls how stable these particles are and how they interact with each other. The zeta potential of clay particles is incredibly important for how colloidal suspensions behave, especially in industries like oil and gas. Knowing and being able to predict this electrical charge is crucial for tackling big challenges. This work presents an inclusive approach to forecasting the zeta potential of clay particles using advanced machine learning techniques, thereby addressing a key challenge in analyzing the electrochemical behavior of clays under varying environmental conditions. Experimental data from recent academic literature included 226 data points, comprising four input variables: clay type, pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), and ionic strength. After statistical analysis and outlier detection using the Monte Carlo Outlier Detection (MCOD), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) models were developed and optimized. To fine-tune these models, we employed a range of optimization algorithms, such as Evolution Strategy (ES), Self-Adaptive Differential Evolution (SADE), Batch Bayesian Optimization (BBO) and Bayesian Probability Improvement (BPI). The models' function was appraised using k-fold cross-validation, and their predictive accuracy was measured based on metrics such as mean squared error (MSE) and R2. The results demonstrated that ES, BBO, and BPI algorithms achieved superior predictive accuracy, with R2 values exceeding 0.92 for the test data, while SADE exhibited relatively lower efficiency. Sensitivity and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis revealed that clay type was the most influential feature. Our novel application of Gradient Boosting and optimization algorithms effectively captures the complex, non-linear relationships between various factors and zeta potential. This methodological approach offers enhanced predictive power over traditional methods, marking a significant advancement for fields like environmental remediation, colloid stability assessment, and enhanced oil recovery, where understanding clay-fluid interactions is vital.
ζ电位本质上是悬浮在液体中的微小粒子上的电荷。这种电荷非常重要,因为它控制着这些粒子的稳定性以及它们如何相互作用。粘土颗粒的zeta电位对胶体悬浮液的表现非常重要,尤其是在石油和天然气等行业。了解并能够预测这种电荷对于应对重大挑战至关重要。这项工作提出了一种使用先进的机器学习技术预测粘土颗粒zeta电位的包容性方法,从而解决了在不同环境条件下分析粘土电化学行为的关键挑战。来自近期学术文献的实验数据包括226个数据点,包括四个输入变量:粘土类型、pH值、总溶解固体(TDS)和离子强度。通过统计分析和蒙特卡罗离群检测(Monte Carlo outlier detection, MCOD)的离群检测,建立并优化了梯度增强机(Gradient Boosting Machine, GBM)模型。为了对这些模型进行微调,我们采用了一系列优化算法,如进化策略(ES)、自适应差分进化(SADE)、批处理贝叶斯优化(BBO)和贝叶斯概率改进(BPI)。采用k-fold交叉验证对模型的功能进行评价,并根据均方误差(MSE)和R2等指标衡量模型的预测精度。结果表明,ES、BBO和BPI算法的预测准确率较高,测试数据的R2值均超过0.92,而SADE算法的预测效率相对较低。敏感性和SHapley加性解释(SHapley Additive explanation)分析表明,粘土类型是影响最大的特征。我们的新应用梯度增强和优化算法有效地捕获了各种因素和zeta电位之间复杂的非线性关系。与传统方法相比,该方法具有更强的预测能力,标志着环境修复、胶体稳定性评估和提高采收率等领域的重大进步,在这些领域,了解粘土-流体相互作用至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of climate change over the potential evolution of the glaciers of Antizana volcano 气候变化对安提萨纳火山冰川潜在演化的影响
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104214
Génesis Buitrón-Cachipuendo , Doris Cevallos-Sánchez , Oscar Rosales-Enríquez , Paúl Arias-Muñoz , Roberto Chang-Silva , Luis Maisincho , Gabriel Jácome-Aguirre
Glaciers cover approximately 10 % of the Earth's land surface and are sensitive indicators of climate change, particularly in the tropical Andes, where small climatic variations can significantly impact their extent. This study analyzed the glacial retreat of the Antizana Glacial System (AGS) by identifying influential variables, assessing glacial evolution using satellite imagery, and developing a predictive model for 2060 under two climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Historical climate data, including temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed were used alongside Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS-R) to relate these variables to glacier surface evolution. Results showed that temperature and precipitation are the most important variables in the predictive model. The glacier area decreased from 18.31 km2 in 1990 to 15 km2 in 2020, a reduction of 18.07 %. The PLS-R model explained 84 % of the variability in glacier coverage, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.3. Climate projections for 2060 indicate that glacier area could decrease to 6.34 km2 under an optimistic scenario (SSP1-2.6) and 4.84 km2 under a pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5), representing losses of 65.37 % and 73.56 %, respectively, compared to 1990. These findings underscore the vulnerability of tropical glaciers to global warming, affecting biodiversity and water availability for local communities. Continuous monitoring is crucial to better understand their future evolution amid climate change. This study provides a foundation for decision-making on glacier conservation and mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources and regional climate.
冰川覆盖了大约10%的地球陆地表面,是气候变化的敏感指标,特别是在热带安第斯山脉,在那里,微小的气候变化可以显著影响其范围。本文通过识别影响变量,利用卫星图像评估冰川演变,并建立了两种气候变化情景(SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5)下2060年的预测模型,分析了Antizana冰川系统(AGS)的冰川退缩。使用历史气候数据,包括温度、降水、太阳辐射和风速,以及偏最小二乘回归(PLS-R)来将这些变量与冰川表面演变联系起来。结果表明,温度和降水是预测模型中最重要的变量。冰川面积从1990年的18.31 km2减少到2020年的15 km2,减少了18.07%。PLS-R模型解释了84%的冰川覆盖变化,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.3。2060年的气候预估表明,在乐观情景(SSP1-2.6)下,冰川面积可能减少至6.34 km2,在悲观情景(SSP5-8.5)下,冰川面积可能减少至4.84 km2,与1990年相比分别减少65.37%和73.56%。这些发现强调了热带冰川对全球变暖的脆弱性,影响了当地社区的生物多样性和水资源供应。持续监测对于更好地了解它们在气候变化中的未来演变至关重要。研究结果可为冰川保护和减缓气候变化对水资源和区域气候的影响提供决策依据。
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引用次数: 0
Cenozoic geodynamic and tectonomagmatic evolution of Andean margin, implications for metallogenic endowment of orogenic belts 安第斯山脉边缘新生代地球动力学与构造岩浆演化及其对造山带成矿禀赋的启示
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104202
Juan Pablo Bello-González , Eduardo Contreras-Reyes , Ítalo Payacán , Felipe Quiero , Paula Araya-Jaraquemada , Pablo Moreno-Yaeger , Pamela Jara , Carlos Bazaes
The genesis and distribution of porphyry copper deposits have long been studied due to the pivotal role this commodity has in economic development. However, they remain poorly understood and continue to be a topic of global interest. Although porphyry formation is typically associated with convergent plate margins, these deposits and their associated magmatic arcs are not uniformly distributed along such boundaries, which calls for alternative or complementary hypotheses to explain these differences. In this contribution, we explore the processes that play a role in the metal endowment of the continental crust, focusing on the heterogeneity of the subducting and overriding plates during the Cenozoic in the Central Andes. By reconstructing the tectonic interactions of oceanic and continental plates and analyzing a large set of 2355 igneous rock compositions (1770 pre-Quaternary), we examine these dynamics along the Andean margin, from northern Peru to central Chile. A significant finding is the pronounced spatio-temporal relationship between the subduction of hotspot tracks (from Easter, San Félix and Juan Fernández hotspots) and the genesis of porphyry copper deposits in the region, which are predominantly situated south of the hotspot tracks. Additionally, the trace element composition and distance to the trench of magmatic events display a distinct contrast between the northern and southern segments of the hotspot ridge subduction along the Andes. These observations suggest that seamount chain subduction may have played a primary role in lithospheric deformation and magma composition in the Andean orogen during the Cenozoic.
由于斑岩铜矿在经济发展中起着举足轻重的作用,人们对斑岩铜矿的成因和分布进行了长期的研究。然而,他们仍然知之甚少,并继续成为全球关注的话题。虽然斑岩的形成通常与会聚的板块边缘有关,但这些矿床及其伴生的岩浆弧并不是均匀分布在这样的边界上,这就需要替代或互补的假设来解释这些差异。在这篇文章中,我们探讨了在大陆地壳金属禀赋中起作用的过程,重点研究了安第斯山脉中部新生代俯冲和上覆板块的非均质性。通过重建海洋和大陆板块的构造相互作用,并分析2355组火成岩组成(1770年前第四纪),我们研究了安第斯山脉边缘从秘鲁北部到智利中部的这些动力学。一个重要的发现是热点径迹(来自Easter、San f - lix和Juan Fernández热点)的俯冲与该地区斑岩铜矿的成因之间存在明显的时空关系,斑岩铜矿主要位于热点径迹以南。此外,在沿安第斯山脉俯冲的热点脊的南北段之间,微量元素组成和到岩浆事件海沟的距离显示出明显的对比。这些观测结果表明,海山链俯冲作用可能在安第斯造山带新生代岩石圈变形和岩浆组成中起主要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Landslide susceptibility assessment using AHP and RF techniques: Special reference to Kumaun lesser Himalaya, Uttarakhand, India 使用AHP和RF技术的滑坡易感性评估:以印度北阿坎德邦的Kumaun小喜马拉雅为例
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104191
Achla Joshi , Girish Ch Kothyari , Atul Kumar Patidar , Khyati Gupta
Landslides represent one of the most pervasive and hazardous geohazards globally, particularly in tectonically active and monsoon-dominated regions such as the Himalayas. The inner lesser and higher Himalayas are extremely susceptible to slope instability due to a fragile geological setup and erratic monsoon precipitation. The study focuses on the eastern Ramganga River basin, located in the Uttarakhand Himalaya, which experiences frequent occurrences of landslides. Therefore, identification and monitoring of hazard-prone zones are essential for risk mitigation and sustainable development planning. This study undertakes a comparative assessment of landslide susceptibility using two distinct approaches, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), a knowledge-driven multi-criteria decision-making method, and the Random Forest (RF) machine learning (ML) algorithms, a data-driven ensemble technique. A spatial database is developed, incorporating multiple Landslide Explanatory Variables (LEV) such as slope, aspect, curvature (plan and profile), distance to streams, topographic wetness index (TWI), geological units, structural features, lineament density, land use/land cover (LULC), soil type, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The model performance is evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) metric. The landslide susceptible zonation analysis indicates a ∼431.93 km2 area under high (∼32 %) and 150.68 km2 very high (∼12 %) in the RF. However, ∼569.16 km2 area under high (∼42 %) to 101.32 km2 very high (∼8 %) in AHP. The RF model demonstrated a superior predictive capability (AUC 86 %), which outperformed to AHP model (AUC 70 %). Variable importance analysis revealed that slope, geology, and distance to streams are the most influential parameters controlling landslide dynamics. The comparative analysis between the two aforementioned techniques shows that the outcomes of RF are more reliable for landslide susceptibility analysis, owing to no subjectivity and bias compared to AHP. Overall, this study attributes the effectiveness of ML techniques for accurately marking the susceptible zones of the landslide and related hazards.
滑坡是全球最普遍和最危险的地质灾害之一,特别是在构造活跃和季风主导的地区,如喜马拉雅山。由于脆弱的地质构造和不稳定的季风降水,内部较小和较高的喜马拉雅山脉极易受到斜坡不稳定的影响。这项研究的重点是位于北阿坎德邦喜马拉雅地区的东部拉姆甘加河流域,该地区经常发生山体滑坡。因此,确定和监测易发危险区对于减轻风险和可持续发展规划至关重要。本研究使用两种不同的方法对滑坡易感性进行了比较评估,即层次分析法(AHP),一种知识驱动的多标准决策方法,以及随机森林(RF)机器学习(ML)算法,一种数据驱动的集成技术。建立了一个包含多个滑坡解释变量(LEV)的空间数据库,这些变量包括坡度、坡向、曲率(平面和剖面)、到河流的距离、地形湿度指数(TWI)、地质单元、结构特征、线条密度、土地利用/土地覆盖(LULC)、土壤类型和归一化植被指数(NDVI)。使用曲线下面积(AUC)度量来评估模型性能。滑坡易感带分析表明,在RF中,约431.93 km2的区域处于高水平(约32%),150.68 km2的区域处于极高水平(约12%)。然而,在AHP中,~ 569.16 km2的面积处于高(~ 42%)至101.32 km2的面积非常高(~ 8%)。RF模型的预测能力(AUC为86%)优于AHP模型(AUC为70%)。变重要度分析表明,坡度、地质条件和距离河流的距离是控制滑坡动力学的最重要参数。两种方法的对比分析表明,相对于层次分析法,射频法的结果不存在主观性和偏差,在滑坡敏感性分析中更为可靠。总体而言,本研究归因于ML技术在准确标记滑坡易感区域和相关危害方面的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Extreme events and infant mortality: A mathematical modeling approach to understand climate-induced vulnerability in India 极端事件和婴儿死亡率:用数学模型方法来了解印度气候引起的脆弱性
IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104192
Aditi Chaturvedi, Mohammad Younus Bhat
Extreme climate events have increased the frequency and intensity of environmental extremes, impacting children, particularly infants. To systematically investigate how infant mortality is temporally related to extreme climate events, we created a mathematical model to demonstrate the transitory nature of the relationships in India over the period 1990–2022, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method as an econometric approach with time series mathematical modeling. This method enables to estimate variables dynamic relationships in both the long and short run, and is ideal for addressing the complexity of extreme climatic event interactions. The empirical findings indicate that particulate matter (PM2.5), and increased frequency of natural disaster events have a significant positive relationship with higher infant mortality rates in both long and short-run, as 1 % rise in disasters and PM2.5 levels results in 0.05 % and 0.12 % rise in infant mortality rates respectively in the long run. The increased occurrence of vector-borne diseases has revealed mixed results as rise in malaria by 1 % leads to rise in infant mortality rates by 0.21 % in the long-run, while dengue has a negative association in the long-run. The rise in temperature and carbon emissions demonstrated a negative link with the infant mortality rate in both long and short-run. This study highlights the need for climate-resilient health systems and the need for early warning systems to protect infant health amid increasing climate extremes.
极端气候事件增加了环境极端事件的频率和强度,影响到儿童,特别是婴儿。为了系统地研究婴儿死亡率与极端气候事件的时间相关性,我们使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法作为时间序列数学建模的计量经济学方法,创建了一个数学模型,以证明印度1990-2022年期间这种关系的暂时性。这种方法能够估计变量在长期和短期内的动态关系,是解决极端气候事件相互作用复杂性的理想方法。实证结果表明,PM2.5、自然灾害事件频次增加与婴儿死亡率长期和短期均呈显著正相关,灾害和PM2.5水平每增加1%,婴儿死亡率长期分别上升0.05%和0.12%。病媒传播疾病发病率的增加带来了好坏参半的结果,从长远来看,疟疾发病率每上升1%,婴儿死亡率就会上升0.21%,而登革热在长期内则呈负相关。气温上升和碳排放量的上升,无论从长期还是短期来看,都与婴儿死亡率呈负相关。这项研究强调,需要建立具有气候适应能力的卫生系统,也需要建立早期预警系统,以便在极端气候日益增多的情况下保护婴儿健康。
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Physics and Chemistry of the Earth
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