Physics and Chemistry of the Earth最新文献

{"title":"Using Theory of Change (ToC) to identify key risks to the effectiveness of shared river basin agreements: a case of the Orange-Senqu River Commission","authors":"J. Moolman ,&nbsp;R.C. Alberts ,&nbsp;F. Retief ,&nbsp;W.D. Lubbe ,&nbsp;C. Roos ,&nbsp;D. Cilliers","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104286","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104286","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Shared river basins support socio-economic development for almost half the world's population. Although the mutual reliance on a shared finite resource introduces high levels of complexity into its management. Shared river basin agreements are often used as specific international policy instruments towards effective water resource management. However, the effectiveness of these agreements in achieving their objectives is increasingly being questioned. In an effort to improve our understanding of water management within shared river basins, the paper aims to identify key risks to the effectiveness of shared river basin agreements. This is achieved by applying a Theory of Change (ToC) methodology to the Orange-Senqu River Commission (ORASECOM) Agreement, promoting cooperative management within the Orange-Senqu River basin in Southern Africa. The ToC produces a causal narrative and highlights key assumptions and risks for implementation. The results reveal 18 key risks underpinning the agreement, of which nine are associated with the input component – what we need to implement the agreement. Considering the existing literature and the current water governance landscape of the region, the main risks to the effectiveness of the ORASECOM Agreement include the lack of enforcement and implementation of national legislation, as well as inadequate provision of resources necessary for effective implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104286"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146023082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Speleogenetic implications of sulfuric acid processes in the Plavecký Karst, Slovakia: geomorphological and mineralogical insights","authors":"Petr Mikysek ,&nbsp;Pavel Bella ,&nbsp;Juraj Littva ,&nbsp;Eliska Mikyskova ,&nbsp;Pavel Bosák","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104256","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104256","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hypogene caves of the Plavecký Karst (Western Carpathians, Slovakia) provide the first reliably documented examples of sulfuric acid speleogenesis (SAS) in the country. Their development was linked to phases of stabilized base level after the emergence from the phreatic zone. The most diagnostic morphological markers include horizontal passages with flat corrosion floors and water table notches, dissected by vertical discharge fissures. Extended data from the Plavecká priepasť Shaft revealed passages and halls with corrosion tables and notches that correlate with the lowermost level of the nearby Plavecká jaskyňa Cave, dated to the upper Middle Pleistocene. Mineralogical analyses of cave sediments, dominated by carbonates with gypsum and minor jarosite, alunite, and hydrated Fe sulfates, despite their scarcity, provided evidence of former SAS activity. Based on new observations and previous sulfur isotope data, we propose the first conceptual model of SAS in the Plavecký Karst. The model presumes H₂S generation from Upper Triassic anhydrite through thermochemical and subsequent microbial sulfate reduction, resulting in pyrite precipitation and secondary sulfate mineral formation. The occurrence of SAS in the hill of Plavecký hradný vrch indicates deep-water circulation along the Leitha Fault Zone, linking cave development with hydrocarbon-related brines and mineralization processes in the broader Vienna Basin Tectonic Front. This concept provides a comprehensive basis for the understanding of SAS in the wider area together with insights applicable to other complex hypogene systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104256"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing shifts in rainfall extremes: A climate-based IDF curves projection study of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan","authors":"Fahad Haseeb,&nbsp;Shahid Ali","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104258","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104258","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate estimation of rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) relationships is essential for the design of climate-resilient infrastructure, especially in regions vulnerable to extreme hydrometeorological events. This study presents precise IDF curves for five major districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—Peshawar, Chitral, Mansehra, Dera Ismail Khan, and Kohat—by combining observed rainfall data with downscaled projections from global climate models (GCMs) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The Equidistant Quantile Mapping (EQM) technique was applied to correct biases in the GCM simulated data, improving its local applicability. Results reveal a consistent increase in rainfall intensities across all durations and return periods under future scenarios, with SSP5-8.5 showing the highest projected extremes. Under SSP2-4.5, rainfall intensities are projected to rise by approximately 10–25 %, whereas under SSP5-8.5, the increase may reach 20–45 % by the end of the century. The projected rise is more pronounced for shorter durations (≤1 h) and higher return periods, particularly in northern cities such as Peshawar and Chitral, reflecting the influence of topography and increased moisture availability. These findings suggest an elevated risk of urban flooding and stormwater overflows in the future. The updated IDF curves developed in this study provide essential inputs for future flood risk mitigation and climate-resilient infrastructure planning in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104258"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating reference evapotranspiration in data-scarce regions: Comparative analysis and calibration of empirical models against the Penman-Monteith method in Malawi","authors":"Patsani Gregory Kumambala ,&nbsp;Lenard Kumwenda ,&nbsp;Deogratias M.M. Mulungu ,&nbsp;Sheila Kavwenje","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104269","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104269","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is vital for irrigation planning and hydrological modelling yet remains challenging in data-scarce regions such as Malawi. This study evaluated three empirical ET₀ models—the Hargreaves–Samani (HS), Priestley–Taylor (PT), and Turc methods—against the FAO-56 Penman–Monteith (PM) standard across six meteorological stations representing Malawi's major agro-climatic zones. Daily temperature, humidity, wind speed, and sunshine data were obtained from the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services in Malawi and aggregated to monthly scales. Linear regression calibration aligned empirical estimates with FAO-56 p.m. values, while the F-test and Jarque–Bera test assessed statistical significance and residual normality. Results show that radiation-based models outperformed the temperature-based HS method. The calibrated Turc model achieved the highest accuracy (<span><math><mrow><msup><mi>R</mi><mn>2</mn></msup></mrow></math></span> = 0.79–0.94), followed by PT (<span><math><mrow><msup><mi>R</mi><mn>2</mn></msup></mrow></math></span> = 0.55–0.95), whereas HS showed lower accuracy (<span><math><mrow><msup><mi>R</mi><mn>2</mn></msup></mrow></math></span> = 0.40–0.74) and strong sensitivity to wind speed. Model performance declined from humid highlands to arid lakeshore regions, highlighting the influence of aerodynamic factors. Overall, the calibrated Turc and Priestley–Taylor models provide robust, low-data alternatives to FAO-56 p.m., particularly in humid and moderate-wind environments. These findings offer practical tools for irrigation management, drought monitoring, and water-resource assessment in Malawi and similar tropical data-limited settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104269"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergistic effects of dissimilar additives on shrink–swell subgrade soil","authors":"Chijioke Christopher Ikeagwuani ,&nbsp;ThankGod Chukwuebuka Alexander ,&nbsp;Chetachi Sarah Maduabuchi ,&nbsp;Idorenyin Ndarake Usanga","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104276","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104276","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study optimized the synergistic effects of three additives such as magnesium oxide (MO), metamarl (MM), and guar gum (GG) on the mechanical properties of shrink-swell subgrade soil using a combined Taguchi and grey-based optimization approach. The optimal combination was determined as 1.5 % MO, 15 % MM, and 1.5 % GG. The stabilized soil exhibited significant improvements, with unconfined compressive strength (UCS) increasing by 577.81 % after 28days and California bearing ratio (CBR) increasing by 468.89 % compared to the untreated soil. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed a denser soil matrix with fewer voids and the formation of cementitious compounds, confirming enhanced strength and stability. The integration of Taguchi and grey-based optimization proved effective in determining the optimal additive blend for subgrade stabilization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104276"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving regional hydrological modeling in the Iberian Peninsula using the VIC model and optimized WRF/Noah-MP parameterizations","authors":"Nicolás Tacoronte ,&nbsp;Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis ,&nbsp;David Donaire-Montaño ,&nbsp;Patricio Yeste ,&nbsp;María Jesús Esteban-Parra ,&nbsp;Yolanda Castro-Díez ,&nbsp;Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104274","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104274","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate hydrological modeling is essential for managing water resources under climate change, especially in regions like the Iberian Peninsula (IP), characterized by diverse hydroclimatic conditions. This study aims to enhance regional hydrological simulation performance across the IP by optimizing the configuration of the Noah Land Surface Model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP), coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and subsequently integrating outputs into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model. A total of 78 WRF/Noah-MP experiments were evaluated to determine the optimal setup for accurately simulating hydrologically relevant variables, such as daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation, during contrasting climatic years (dry 2005 and wet 2010). Results showed significant variability in model performance depending on specific Noah-MP parameterizations, particularly regarding vegetation dynamics, canopy stomatal resistance, runoff and surface exchange processes. Experiments employing the Ball-Berry canopy resistance model with dynamic vegetation, Monin-Obukhov surface drag exchange parameterization, and the TOPMODEL runoff scheme demonstrated superior performance, notably reducing temperature biases and better capturing spatial temperature patterns. Conversely, equilibrium water table-based runoff and original Noah surface exchange schemes exhibited less suitable performance and larger biases. VIC hydrological simulations, driven by optimized WRF/Noah-MP outputs (2005–2014), substantially improved monthly streamflow simulations across the IP's headwater basins, confirmed by validation metrics including the Kling-Gupta Efficiency and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Overall, 82 % of the basins achieved satisfactory hydrological simulation performance, underscoring the robustness and added value of the proposed model configuration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104274"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrated approaches for pillar design and stability assessment in underground hard rock mining: From empirical models to machine learning","authors":"Mritunjay Kumar ,&nbsp;Akhil Avchar ,&nbsp;Shambhavi Sinha ,&nbsp;Sahas V. swamy","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104235","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104235","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pillar design in underground hard rock mining is critical for structural integrity and geohazard mitigation. Traditional empirical methods are rapid but often underestimate stability in jointed rock masses by 15–20 %, while numerical and machine learning approaches offer higher accuracy yet lack systematic integration with geological controls. This review synthesises empirical, numerical (finite element and finite difference), and machine learning methods over the past two decades, with a focus on incorporating geological discontinuities, lithology, and rock mass quality to improve pillar stability assessment. Empirical approaches perform poorly in complex jointed settings (50°–70° dip angles), whereas finite element modelling excels in highly jointed rocks and finite difference methods in less jointed conditions. Machine learning models (Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, ANN) achieve 80–99 % predictive accuracy by integrating key parameters such as width-to-height ratio, RMR, and UCS. Case studies from limestone, quartzite, and platinum mines reveal that discontinuities reduce pillar strength by 15–30 %, with slender pillars (W/H &lt; 0.8) prone to sudden collapse. A novel hybrid framework is proposed that integrates empirical baselines, detailed numerical simulations, and data-driven machine learning with real-time geophysical data and probabilistic techniques. This framework improves stability predictions by 15–20 % compared to standalone methods, enhances adaptability across diverse geological settings, and effectively mitigates geohazards such as rockbursts and subsidence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104235"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mining-induced land use change and ecological restoration: Lessons from three developing economies","authors":"Shuai Li,&nbsp;Zhenyu Dan,&nbsp;Tubing Yin","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104267","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104267","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on satellite remote sensing data covering 12 typical mining areas in Chile, China, and Brazil, 68 environmental assessment reports, and 23 policy documents, this study comprehensively analyzes mining-induced land use changes and ecological restoration practices in the three countries from 2000 to 2020, revealing their differentiated paths and core challenges in balancing mining land management and sustainable development. For arid conditions, Chile applied thickened tailings treatment technology (water recycling rate: 53.07 %) and seawater desalination systems in copper mines, yet community participation was below 30 % with 12 annual indigenous land conflicts. In China, mining land expanded from 18,000 km² (2000) to 36,100 km² (2020); under the \"mining and restoration simultaneously\" policy, 224,000 hm² was restored (2019–2023), but restoration rates in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia remained 46 % lower than degradation rates, with only 31.2 % of enterprises meeting policy standards. In Brazil's Amazon, mining concessions accounted for 0.4 % of the region, but their 70 km buffer Region covered 23.4 % of the rainforest; mining in indigenous territories increased by 77.1 km² (2017–2020), and illegal mining interrupted 58 % of restoration projects. Through comparison, the study identifies common strategies for sustainable mining land management: establishing an adaptive governance framework, initiating restoration planning 1–2 years pre-mining, and applying low-carbon tailings reuse technology. Unlike previous research, this study is the first to integrate the \"resource endowment-governance model-climate adaptability\" three-dimensional framework. It quantifies restoration efficiency differences among the three countries and addresses gaps in long-term restoration assessment and the integration of climate change into mining planning. Its findings provide practical references for emerging economies like Australia, South Africa, India, and Indonesia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104267"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soil moisture retrieval and ecohydrological assessment for sundarbans delta using multi-temporal Sentinel-1 SAR","authors":"Ismail Mondal ,&nbsp;Pratanu Maity ,&nbsp;Jatisankar Bandyopadhyay ,&nbsp;Fahad Alshehri ,&nbsp;S.K. Ariful Hossain ,&nbsp;Felix Jose ,&nbsp;Lal Mohammad ,&nbsp;Mukhiddin Juliev","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104244","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104244","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the dynamics of soil moisture in rapidly evolving coastal landscapes is crucial for assessing hydrological variability, ecosystem responses, and agricultural resilience. The western Sundarbans Delta, influenced by monsoon rainfall, tidal movements, and diverse vegetation, poses significant challenges for conventional monitoring. To bridge this gap, we developed a multi-temporal retrieval system utilizing Sentinel-1 C-band SAR data processed within the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment. This system seamlessly integrates radar backscatter with vegetation indices and precipitation data. Monthly soil-moisture maps for 2021 were generated and rigorously validated against a comprehensive network of in-situ measurements. The retrievals effectively captured the region's hydrological seasonality, showcasing pronounced wet conditions during the monsoon and significant moisture depletion prior to summer. The strong correlation between radar-derived soil moisture and field observations (r² = 0.90) underscores the efficacy of the SAR-based change-detection methodology in complex coastal environments. Sensitivity analyses highlighted the reliability of radar backscatter as an indicator of near-surface soil water, particularly in areas with limited vegetation cover or roughness interference. Correlation assessments revealed that soil moisture has a more coherent relationship with NDVI than with rainfall, underscoring the role of vegetation as a stabilizing intermediary that integrates water availability over time. Lag analysis provided additional insights, revealing that vegetation responses extend beyond immediate precipitation events, reflecting broader ecosystem-level water regulation mechanisms. This methodological framework provides a scalable and transferable strategy for soil-moisture monitoring in vulnerable deltas, offering crucial insights for sustainable agriculture, ecological conservation, and climate adaptation planning. It also contributes to UN SDG 13, SDG 14, and SDG 15.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104244"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Glacier mass balance and velocity estimation of the Zemu glacier using SAR data","authors":"Gurnam Parsad ,&nbsp;Akash Basotra ,&nbsp;Ajay Kumar Taloor ,&nbsp;Sushil Kumar Singh ,&nbsp;Rohit Kumar ,&nbsp;Khadeijah faqeih","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104296","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104296","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study focuses on Zemu Glacier, located in the eastern Himalayas, utilizing Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical data to estimate glacier velocity and glacier mass balance (GMb) over the period from 2017 to 2024. The mass balance analysis indicates a persistent and consistent negative trend throughout the study period, confirming ongoing glacier thinning and retreat. GMb exhibits notable interannual variability yet remains dominated by net mass loss, underscoring the glacier's high sensitivity to climatic forcing measured in meter water equivalent per year (m w. e. y⁻¹). The annual GMb values fluctuated between −0.75 and −0.28 m w.e. y⁻¹, with corresponding Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) variations from 5580 to 5799.5 m and Accumulation Area Ratio (AAR) ranging from 35.98 % to 49.75 %, highlighting substantial interannual variability.Velocity estimates derived from Sentinel-1A SAR offset tracking reveal pronounced spatial and temporal variations, ranging from near-stagnant ice to 167 m y⁻¹, with values generally higher than those derived from LISS-4 optical data. It revealed maximum velocities ranging from 115.97 m y⁻¹ to 150.59 m y⁻¹. These velocity estimates indicate periods of increased glacier flow, reflecting the glacier dynamic response to climatic factors. The ITS_LIVE dataset further validates the results, showing a progressive decline in maximum glacier velocities between 2017 and 2022, indicating a decelerating glacier system. Variations in ELA and facies distribution particularly shifts in Frozen Percolation Zone (FPZ) and Wet Snow Zone (WSZ) correspond closely with changes in glacier mass balance and ELA, while Bare Ice Zone (BIZ) and Debris Covered Ice Zone (DCIZ) remain comparatively stable. The study meticulously quantifies uncertainties associated with the derived glaciological parameters for Zemu Glacier. Minimum and maximum SAR-based velocities carry uncertainties of ±0.4 to ±9.0 m y⁻¹, while optical-derived maximum velocities have an uncertainty of ±4.1 m y⁻¹. The ELA uncertainty is ±25.7 m, AAR ±1.6, and GMb ±0.1 m w.e. y⁻¹. These quantified uncertainties ensure the robustness and reliability of the velocity, mass balance, and ELA estimates, providing confidence in the multi-sensor analysis of glacier dynamics. Furthermore, the study helps in the spatiotemporal transitions with glacier facies identification as BIZ, WSZ, FPZ and DCIZ. The study has also implemented the Wilcoxon signed rank test, an important implication giving statistical significance of seasonal glacier mass balance fluctuations. The combined analysis of glacier mass balance and velocity data provides a comprehensive understanding of Zemu glacier dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104296"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146022974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}