Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-12-02DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104222
Hao Ma , Shaoxiang Guo , Kang Tian , Zhenhua Zhang
Watershed water environment governance plays a pivotal role in ensuring ecological security, promoting economic development, and maintaining social stability. This study adopts a mixed-methods approach that integrates grounded theory with variable principal component analysis (VPCA) to construct and refine a policy collaboration evaluation indicator system for watershed water environment governance, based on textual data and 695 valid questionnaires collected from nine provinces along the Yellow River Basin. The results reveal that the proposed framework encompasses four core categories, twenty primary categories, thirty-five secondary categories, and 145 conceptualised statements, covering four key dimensions: policy intensity, policy objectives, policy measures, and policy platforms, thereby providing a comprehensive reflection of policy processes. Subsequently, VPCA was applied by calculating correlation matrices, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors, leading to the elimination of four primary categories with relatively low explanatory power, while retaining sixteen with assigned weights. The study establishes a scientifically rigorous, rational, and practical evaluation system for policy collaboration in watershed water environment governance, thereby enriching theoretical research on policy evaluation and offering robust support for the formulation, implementation, and assessment of watershed water environment policies in practice.
{"title":"Tracing and optimising the policy collaboration evaluation system for watershed water environment governance under a mixed-methods approach: Evidence from nine provinces along the yellow river in China","authors":"Hao Ma , Shaoxiang Guo , Kang Tian , Zhenhua Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104222","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104222","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Watershed water environment governance plays a pivotal role in ensuring ecological security, promoting economic development, and maintaining social stability. This study adopts a mixed-methods approach that integrates grounded theory with variable principal component analysis (VPCA) to construct and refine a policy collaboration evaluation indicator system for watershed water environment governance, based on textual data and 695 valid questionnaires collected from nine provinces along the Yellow River Basin. The results reveal that the proposed framework encompasses four core categories, twenty primary categories, thirty-five secondary categories, and 145 conceptualised statements, covering four key dimensions: policy intensity, policy objectives, policy measures, and policy platforms, thereby providing a comprehensive reflection of policy processes. Subsequently, VPCA was applied by calculating correlation matrices, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors, leading to the elimination of four primary categories with relatively low explanatory power, while retaining sixteen with assigned weights. The study establishes a scientifically rigorous, rational, and practical evaluation system for policy collaboration in watershed water environment governance, thereby enriching theoretical research on policy evaluation and offering robust support for the formulation, implementation, and assessment of watershed water environment policies in practice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104222"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145685421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-11-19DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104200
Sema Arıman , Sevtap Tırınk , Hülya Böke Özkoç
Surface sediments serve as both sinks and sources of toxic pollutants within freshwater ecosystems and are widely recognized as indicators of water body integrity. This study aimed to conduct a comprehensive geochemical assessment of potentially toxic elements in Kızılırmak River sediments using multi-index evaluation approaches to determine contamination levels, seasonal variations, and associated ecological and human health risk implications. Analysis of twelve metals using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry revealed significant contamination with concentrations following the order: Fe > Mn > Cr > Zn > Ni > Cu > Pb > As > Hg > Cd. Multiple pollution indices confirmed contamination: contamination factor classified arsenic (8.86) as highly contaminated; Cu, Cd, Cr, and Ni (3.08, 3.72, 4.37, and 5.65, respectively) as considerably contaminated; and Mn, Zn, Hg, and Pb (1.76, 1.99, 1.14, and 1.35, respectively) as moderately contaminated. Enrichment factor analysis showed significant enrichment of As (9.27) and Ni (5.81), while the geoaccumulation index classified sediments as moderately to strongly polluted with As (2.55). Ecological risk assessment identified copper as posing a very high ecological risk. Health risk assessment indicated acceptable non-carcinogenic risks for all populations but revealed moderate carcinogenic effects from Ni (1.47x10−4) and Cr (1.09x10−4) in adults and high effects from Cr (1.02x10−3), Ni (1.37x10−3), and As (1.02x10−3) in children. Seasonal variations showed the highest concentrations for most metals during the winter months. This study emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring and remediation of metal contamination in the Kızılırmak River basin.
地表沉积物是淡水生态系统中有毒污染物的汇和源，被广泛认为是水体完整性的指标。本研究旨在利用多指标评价方法对Kızılırmak河流沉积物中潜在有毒元素进行全面的地球化学评估，以确定污染水平、季节变化以及相关的生态和人类健康风险影响。采用电感耦合等离子体质谱法对12种金属进行了分析，结果显示污染程度显著，其浓度顺序为：Fe >； Mn > Cr > Zn > Ni > Cu > Pb > As > Hg > Cd。多种污染指标均证实污染：砷污染系数为8.86，为高污染；Cu、Cd、Cr和Ni的污染程度分别为3.08、3.72、4.37和5.65；中度污染的锰、锌、汞和铅分别为1.76、1.99、1.14和1.35。富集因子分析显示As（9.27）和Ni（5.81）富集显著，而地质堆积指数划分为中~重度As污染（2.55）。生态风险评估认为铜具有很高的生态风险。健康风险评估显示，所有人群的非致癌风险均可接受，但在成人中，Ni （1.47x10−4）和Cr （1.09x10−4）的致癌作用中等，而在儿童中，Cr （1.02x10−3）、Ni （1.37x10−3）和As （1.02x10−3）的致癌作用较高。季节变化表明，大多数金属的浓度在冬季月份最高。本研究强调需要持续监测和修复Kızılırmak河流域的金属污染。
{"title":"Potentially toxic elements in Kızılırmak River sediments, Türkiye: Multi-index evaluation of ecological and health risks","authors":"Sema Arıman , Sevtap Tırınk , Hülya Böke Özkoç","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104200","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104200","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Surface sediments serve as both sinks and sources of toxic pollutants within freshwater ecosystems and are widely recognized as indicators of water body integrity. This study aimed to conduct a comprehensive geochemical assessment of potentially toxic elements in Kızılırmak River sediments using multi-index evaluation approaches to determine contamination levels, seasonal variations, and associated ecological and human health risk implications. Analysis of twelve metals using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry revealed significant contamination with concentrations following the order: Fe > Mn > Cr > Zn > Ni > Cu > Pb > As > Hg > Cd. Multiple pollution indices confirmed contamination: contamination factor classified arsenic (8.86) as highly contaminated; Cu, Cd, Cr, and Ni (3.08, 3.72, 4.37, and 5.65, respectively) as considerably contaminated; and Mn, Zn, Hg, and Pb (1.76, 1.99, 1.14, and 1.35, respectively) as moderately contaminated. Enrichment factor analysis showed significant enrichment of As (9.27) and Ni (5.81), while the geoaccumulation index classified sediments as moderately to strongly polluted with As (2.55). Ecological risk assessment identified copper as posing a very high ecological risk. Health risk assessment indicated acceptable non-carcinogenic risks for all populations but revealed moderate carcinogenic effects from Ni (1.47x10<sup>−4</sup>) and Cr (1.09x10<sup>−4</sup>) in adults and high effects from Cr (1.02x10<sup>−3</sup>), Ni (1.37x10<sup>−3</sup>), and As (1.02x10<sup>−3</sup>) in children. Seasonal variations showed the highest concentrations for most metals during the winter months. This study emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring and remediation of metal contamination in the Kızılırmak River basin.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104200"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145685418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-12-23DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104254
Hesam Goudarzi , Alireza B. Dariane , Fatemeh Moradian
The increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, along with changing precipitation patterns, have heightened flood risks in southwestern Iran. Accurate prediction of extreme rainfall events remains a significant challenge in numerical weather models, especially in topographically complex and data-scarce regions. This study assesses the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting ten extreme precipitation events using a multi-physics ensemble approach. A total of 84 combinations of microphysics, cumulus, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes were evaluated to identify the optimal physical configuration in this area. Model performance was assessed using a dual-framework approach: (1) a spatio-temporal statistical analysis employing nine evaluation statistics (SSIM, Moran's I, Kappa, RMSE, NSE, R2, POD, FBI, and FAR), and (2) a multi-criteria decision-making method using Entropy-TOPSIS. Results show that relying solely on temporal metrics is insufficient to capture the spatial realism of precipitation patterns, emphasizing the need for integrated spatio-temporal evaluation. Among the tested combinations, the best-performing setup—combination 62—included the Thompson microphysics, Kain-Fritsch cumulus, and MYJ PBL schemes. This combination benefited from advanced hydrometeor representation, effective convective triggering, and enhanced vertical mixing, which collectively improved both the spatial and temporal accuracy of predictions. The Entropy-TOPSIS method provided an objective weighting mechanism and delivered results consistent with the analytical evaluation, reinforcing its robustness. The findings represent a methodological innovation and highlight the value of combining physical understanding with multidimensional evaluation strategies for more accurate precipitation forecasting, offering for flood modeling and climate risk assessment in complex mountainous regions.
{"title":"Performance assessment of WRF model in spatio-temporal forecasting of extreme precipitation events by exploring optimal physics schemes in southwestern Iran","authors":"Hesam Goudarzi , Alireza B. Dariane , Fatemeh Moradian","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104254","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104254","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, along with changing precipitation patterns, have heightened flood risks in southwestern Iran. Accurate prediction of extreme rainfall events remains a significant challenge in numerical weather models, especially in topographically complex and data-scarce regions. This study assesses the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting ten extreme precipitation events using a multi-physics ensemble approach. A total of 84 combinations of microphysics, cumulus, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes were evaluated to identify the optimal physical configuration in this area. Model performance was assessed using a dual-framework approach: (1) a spatio-temporal statistical analysis employing nine evaluation statistics (SSIM, Moran's I, Kappa, RMSE, NSE, R<sup>2</sup>, POD, FBI, and FAR), and (2) a multi-criteria decision-making method using Entropy-TOPSIS. Results show that relying solely on temporal metrics is insufficient to capture the spatial realism of precipitation patterns, emphasizing the need for integrated spatio-temporal evaluation. Among the tested combinations, the best-performing setup—combination 62—included the Thompson microphysics, Kain-Fritsch cumulus, and MYJ PBL schemes. This combination benefited from advanced hydrometeor representation, effective convective triggering, and enhanced vertical mixing, which collectively improved both the spatial and temporal accuracy of predictions. The Entropy-TOPSIS method provided an objective weighting mechanism and delivered results consistent with the analytical evaluation, reinforcing its robustness. The findings represent a methodological innovation and highlight the value of combining physical understanding with multidimensional evaluation strategies for more accurate precipitation forecasting, offering for flood modeling and climate risk assessment in complex mountainous regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104254"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-12-17DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104252
Weili Ge , Chi Xu , Xiumei Yu
Institutional trust plays a vital role in encouraging individuals to take part in voluntary organizations. However, little attention is paid to how trust in institutions at the macro-level translates into individual participation at the micro-level. This study distinguishes between organizational affiliation (breadth of participation) and active participation (depth of participation), and explores how institutional trust fosters voluntary participation through community-level mechanisms. Drawing on data from the 2023 China General Social Survey (CGSS, N = 3083), we analyze the mediating effects of three subdimensions of community social capital: community networks, community efficacy, and social trust. The results show that institutional trust significantly increases both the breadth and depth of participation. Community social capital accounts for over 40 % of the total effect. However, different aspects of social capital work through distinct pathways. Community networks mediate both forms of participation, whereas community efficacy and social trust significantly mediate the relationship for active participation. These findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between structural forms of community capital (such as networks) and cognitive forms (such as efficacy and trust). By tracing how institutional trust encourages civic engagement through community-level dynamics, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of state-society relations and offers new insights into the development of civic engagement in non-Western contexts.
制度信任在鼓励个人参加志愿组织方面起着至关重要的作用。然而，很少有人关注宏观层面对制度的信任如何转化为微观层面的个人参与。本研究区分了组织隶属关系（参与广度）和积极参与（参与深度），并探讨了制度信任如何通过社区层面机制促进自愿参与。本文利用2023年中国综合社会调查（CGSS, N = 3083）的数据，分析了社区社会资本的三个子维度：社区网络、社区效能和社会信任的中介作用。结果表明，制度信任显著提高了参与的广度和深度。社区社会资本占总效应的40%以上。然而，社会资本的不同方面通过不同的途径发挥作用。社区网络对两种参与形式都起中介作用，而社区效能和社会信任对积极参与的关系起显著中介作用。这些发现强调了区分社区资本的结构形式（如网络）和认知形式（如效能和信任）的重要性。通过追踪制度信任如何通过社区层面的动态来鼓励公民参与，本研究有助于更深入地理解国家-社会关系，并为非西方背景下公民参与的发展提供新的见解。
{"title":"Institutional trust and voluntary organization participation in China: The mediating role of community social capital","authors":"Weili Ge , Chi Xu , Xiumei Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104252","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104252","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Institutional trust plays a vital role in encouraging individuals to take part in voluntary organizations. However, little attention is paid to how trust in institutions at the macro-level translates into individual participation at the micro-level. This study distinguishes between organizational affiliation (breadth of participation) and active participation (depth of participation), and explores how institutional trust fosters voluntary participation through community-level mechanisms. Drawing on data from the 2023 China General Social Survey (CGSS, N = 3083), we analyze the mediating effects of three subdimensions of community social capital: community networks, community efficacy, and social trust. The results show that institutional trust significantly increases both the breadth and depth of participation. Community social capital accounts for over 40 % of the total effect. However, different aspects of social capital work through distinct pathways. Community networks mediate both forms of participation, whereas community efficacy and social trust significantly mediate the relationship for active participation. These findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between structural forms of community capital (such as networks) and cognitive forms (such as efficacy and trust). By tracing how institutional trust encourages civic engagement through community-level dynamics, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of state-society relations and offers new insights into the development of civic engagement in non-Western contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104252"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-11-24DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104214
Génesis Buitrón-Cachipuendo , Doris Cevallos-Sánchez , Oscar Rosales-Enríquez , Paúl Arias-Muñoz , Roberto Chang-Silva , Luis Maisincho , Gabriel Jácome-Aguirre
Glaciers cover approximately 10 % of the Earth's land surface and are sensitive indicators of climate change, particularly in the tropical Andes, where small climatic variations can significantly impact their extent. This study analyzed the glacial retreat of the Antizana Glacial System (AGS) by identifying influential variables, assessing glacial evolution using satellite imagery, and developing a predictive model for 2060 under two climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Historical climate data, including temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed were used alongside Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS-R) to relate these variables to glacier surface evolution. Results showed that temperature and precipitation are the most important variables in the predictive model. The glacier area decreased from 18.31 km2 in 1990 to 15 km2 in 2020, a reduction of 18.07 %. The PLS-R model explained 84 % of the variability in glacier coverage, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.3. Climate projections for 2060 indicate that glacier area could decrease to 6.34 km2 under an optimistic scenario (SSP1-2.6) and 4.84 km2 under a pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5), representing losses of 65.37 % and 73.56 %, respectively, compared to 1990. These findings underscore the vulnerability of tropical glaciers to global warming, affecting biodiversity and water availability for local communities. Continuous monitoring is crucial to better understand their future evolution amid climate change. This study provides a foundation for decision-making on glacier conservation and mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources and regional climate.
{"title":"The impact of climate change over the potential evolution of the glaciers of Antizana volcano","authors":"Génesis Buitrón-Cachipuendo , Doris Cevallos-Sánchez , Oscar Rosales-Enríquez , Paúl Arias-Muñoz , Roberto Chang-Silva , Luis Maisincho , Gabriel Jácome-Aguirre","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104214","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104214","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Glaciers cover approximately 10 % of the Earth's land surface and are sensitive indicators of climate change, particularly in the tropical Andes, where small climatic variations can significantly impact their extent. This study analyzed the glacial retreat of the Antizana Glacial System (AGS) by identifying influential variables, assessing glacial evolution using satellite imagery, and developing a predictive model for 2060 under two climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Historical climate data, including temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed were used alongside Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS-R) to relate these variables to glacier surface evolution. Results showed that temperature and precipitation are the most important variables in the predictive model. The glacier area decreased from 18.31 km<sup>2</sup> in 1990 to 15 km<sup>2</sup> in 2020, a reduction of 18.07 %. The PLS-R model explained 84 % of the variability in glacier coverage, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.3. Climate projections for 2060 indicate that glacier area could decrease to 6.34 km<sup>2</sup> under an optimistic scenario (SSP1-2.6) and 4.84 km<sup>2</sup> under a pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5), representing losses of 65.37 % and 73.56 %, respectively, compared to 1990. These findings underscore the vulnerability of tropical glaciers to global warming, affecting biodiversity and water availability for local communities. Continuous monitoring is crucial to better understand their future evolution amid climate change. This study provides a foundation for decision-making on glacier conservation and mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources and regional climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104214"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145737574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104299
Syed Bilawal Ali Shah
The increasing demand for natural gas in Pakistan has intensified interest in evaluating unconventional shale gas resources as a supplement to declining conventional reserves. This study presents the first integrated geochemical and petrophysical assessment of the Sembar Formation in the Ahmedpur Oilfield, Punjab Platform Basin, with the objective of determining its shale gas generation and storage potential. Twenty-three cutting samples were analysed using TOC, Rock-Eval pyrolysis, and vitrinite reflectance to characterise organic richness, kerogen type, and thermal maturity. TOC values ranges from 1.35 to 2.92 wt% and S2 ranges from 5.25 to 7.88 mg HC/g rock and HI values of 180–397 mg HC/g TOC indicating mixed Type II/III kerogen. Tmax ranges from 437 to 444 °C and vitrinite reflectance 0.71–0.83 %Ro confirm that formation lies in early-to-mid gas window. Petrophysical analysis using density, neutron, SP and resistivity logs shows average porosity of ∼12 %, water saturation of 37.28 % and hydrocarbon saturation of 62.71 %, these demonstrates favourable reservoir characteristics as per the standard values. Integration of geochemical parameters with polar shale gas risk plot shows that Sembar Formation meets key criteria for an economically viable shale gas reservoir. Overall results suggest that Sembar Formation possesses adequate gas generation potential and suitable storage capacity highlighting its significance as a prospective shale gas target in Punjab Platform Basin.
{"title":"Shale gas potential of Sembar Formation, Punjab Platform, Pakistan: Insights for a possible shale gas reservoir of economic quantity","authors":"Syed Bilawal Ali Shah","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104299","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104299","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing demand for natural gas in Pakistan has intensified interest in evaluating unconventional shale gas resources as a supplement to declining conventional reserves. This study presents the first integrated geochemical and petrophysical assessment of the Sembar Formation in the Ahmedpur Oilfield, Punjab Platform Basin, with the objective of determining its shale gas generation and storage potential. Twenty-three cutting samples were analysed using TOC, Rock-Eval pyrolysis, and vitrinite reflectance to characterise organic richness, kerogen type, and thermal maturity. TOC values ranges from 1.35 to 2.92 wt% and S2 ranges from 5.25 to 7.88 mg HC/g rock and HI values of 180–397 mg HC/g TOC indicating mixed Type II/III kerogen. Tmax ranges from 437 to 444 °C and vitrinite reflectance 0.71–0.83 %Ro confirm that formation lies in early-to-mid gas window. Petrophysical analysis using density, neutron, SP and resistivity logs shows average porosity of ∼12 %, water saturation of 37.28 % and hydrocarbon saturation of 62.71 %, these demonstrates favourable reservoir characteristics as per the standard values. Integration of geochemical parameters with polar shale gas risk plot shows that Sembar Formation meets key criteria for an economically viable shale gas reservoir. Overall results suggest that Sembar Formation possesses adequate gas generation potential and suitable storage capacity highlighting its significance as a prospective shale gas target in Punjab Platform Basin.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104299"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145976566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-12DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104278
Hu Wen , Feiyang Jin , Shixing Fan , Dengke Wang , Zhengdong Liu , Xiaojiao Cheng , Rijun Li , Bocong Liu , Maoxia Liu , Gaoming Wei , Mengru Huang , Yujie Peng , Jiarui Zhu
The injecting of CO2 into deep coal seams to modify reservoirs and enhance coalbed methane recovery efficiency is one of the effective technologies. However, the time-varying dynamics of the interaction between ScCO2 and coal remain unclear, limiting coalbed methane production rates. Therefore, the present study investigates the evolution patterns of pore heterogeneity in deep coal seams subjected to ScCO2 dissolution, coal samples were collected from the Benxi Formation at a burial depth of 2500 m and studied using a custom-designed ScCO2 coal dissolution experimental platform. The temporal and spatial evolution patterns of the mineral and pore characteristics of coal samples subjected to varying dissolution durations were analyzed. Multiple fractal theory was employed to quantify the heterogeneity of the pore size distribution and the temporal evolution of connectivity. The results indicate that after ScCO2 dissolution, the coal sample undergoes transformation primarily through mineral dissolution, migration, and alteration within an acidic fluid environment. Pore evolution is characterised by a sequence of events including micropore collapse, minipores restructuring, and progressive expansion of medium and large pores. The overall pore development exhibits a trend from micropores toward medium-to-large pores. The microporous volume exhibited a substantial decrease of 78.18 %, with small pores demonstrating a decline that exceeded 90 % in the short term. However, following a period of gradual evolution, a 489.28 % increase in small pore volume was observed, while medium and large pores exhibited progressive expansion exceeding 230 %. When leaching exceeds 10 days, the volume and specific surface area of micropores and minipores begin to decline, while mesopores and macropores continue to expand. After an approximate period of fifteen days, there is an observable decline in the parameters of certain pores. In comparison to mesopores and macropores, micropores demonstrate heightened heterogeneity and diminished pore connectivity. Pore heterogeneity reached its zenith during the 10–15day leaching period, with the H index decreasing by 22.94 %. The heterogeneity in mesopore and macropore sizes diminished, while the combined H and singularity index α0 indicated that pore connectivity increased as heterogeneity decreased. The dissolution-swelling mechanism of ScCO2 on the pore structure of coal is significant, exhibiting a distinct temporal window for structural transformation. This reveals the spatiotemporal response patterns of coal's multiscale structure under ScCO2 influence. The findings provide theoretical guidance for optimizing the engineering sequence of deep coalbed CO2 sequestration and coalbed methane enhanced recovery.
{"title":"Deep coal seam ScCO2 reservoir reconstruction technology: Multi-Scale pore structure heterogeneity multifractal research","authors":"Hu Wen , Feiyang Jin , Shixing Fan , Dengke Wang , Zhengdong Liu , Xiaojiao Cheng , Rijun Li , Bocong Liu , Maoxia Liu , Gaoming Wei , Mengru Huang , Yujie Peng , Jiarui Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104278","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104278","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The injecting of CO<sub>2</sub> into deep coal seams to modify reservoirs and enhance coalbed methane recovery efficiency is one of the effective technologies. However, the time-varying dynamics of the interaction between ScCO<sub>2</sub> and coal remain unclear, limiting coalbed methane production rates. Therefore, the present study investigates the evolution patterns of pore heterogeneity in deep coal seams subjected to ScCO<sub>2</sub> dissolution, coal samples were collected from the Benxi Formation at a burial depth of 2500 m and studied using a custom-designed ScCO<sub>2</sub> coal dissolution experimental platform. The temporal and spatial evolution patterns of the mineral and pore characteristics of coal samples subjected to varying dissolution durations were analyzed. Multiple fractal theory was employed to quantify the heterogeneity of the pore size distribution and the temporal evolution of connectivity. The results indicate that after ScCO<sub>2</sub> dissolution, the coal sample undergoes transformation primarily through mineral dissolution, migration, and alteration within an acidic fluid environment. Pore evolution is characterised by a sequence of events including micropore collapse, minipores restructuring, and progressive expansion of medium and large pores. The overall pore development exhibits a trend from micropores toward medium-to-large pores. The microporous volume exhibited a substantial decrease of 78.18 %, with small pores demonstrating a decline that exceeded 90 % in the short term. However, following a period of gradual evolution, a 489.28 % increase in small pore volume was observed, while medium and large pores exhibited progressive expansion exceeding 230 %. When leaching exceeds 10 days, the volume and specific surface area of micropores and minipores begin to decline, while mesopores and macropores continue to expand. After an approximate period of fifteen days, there is an observable decline in the parameters of certain pores. In comparison to mesopores and macropores, micropores demonstrate heightened heterogeneity and diminished pore connectivity. Pore heterogeneity reached its zenith during the 10–15day leaching period, with the <em>H</em> index decreasing by 22.94 %. The heterogeneity in mesopore and macropore sizes diminished, while the combined <em>H</em> and singularity index <em>α</em><sub>0</sub> indicated that pore connectivity increased as heterogeneity decreased. The dissolution-swelling mechanism of ScCO<sub>2</sub> on the pore structure of coal is significant, exhibiting a distinct temporal window for structural transformation. This reveals the spatiotemporal response patterns of coal's multiscale structure under ScCO<sub>2</sub> influence. The findings provide theoretical guidance for optimizing the engineering sequence of deep coalbed CO<sub>2</sub> sequestration and coalbed methane enhanced recovery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104278"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-13DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104303
Sumanta Dandapath
This study analyzes monthly average rainfall data from 1991 to 2020 for 70 major Indian cities, using GIS-based DEMs to assess spatial and intra-annual rainfall variability. July is identified as the wettest month, followed by August, June, and September. While 77.2 % of annual rainfall occurs during the monsoon season (JJAS), significant city-wise variability exists. Cities during intense rainfall months exhibit about 28 % higher intensity than the rest of the year. Rainfall during these peak months is strongly correlated (r = 0.95) with annual totals, suggesting its potential for early rainfall forecasting. Urban areas experience ∼4 % less rainfall than the national average, but are more susceptible to flooding due to higher JJAS rainfall concentration. These findings support better urban water resource planning.
{"title":"Spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall characteristics in major Indian cities (1991–2020)","authors":"Sumanta Dandapath","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104303","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104303","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes monthly average rainfall data from 1991 to 2020 for 70 major Indian cities, using GIS-based DEMs to assess spatial and intra-annual rainfall variability. July is identified as the wettest month, followed by August, June, and September. While 77.2 % of annual rainfall occurs during the monsoon season (JJAS), significant city-wise variability exists. Cities during intense rainfall months exhibit about 28 % higher intensity than the rest of the year. Rainfall during these peak months is strongly correlated (<em>r = 0.95</em>) with annual totals, suggesting its potential for early rainfall forecasting. Urban areas experience ∼4 % less rainfall than the national average, but are more susceptible to flooding due to higher JJAS rainfall concentration. These findings support better urban water resource planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104303"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146022976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Attributing the drivers of groundwater depletion (GWD) is essential for sustainable management and planning. Although many studies have sought to accurately decouple the effects of these driving factors on GWD, they often consider only direct effects. Consequently, using a typical agricultural county in Northeast China, this study employed Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) to identify the main direct and indirect effects of factors on GWD. A significant GWD trend was observed from the year 2000–2019, with an average annual depletion rate of 0.082 m/year. The PLS-SEM was theoretically consistent, demonstrated reasonable predictive performance, and explained 79.2 % of the variance in GWD. Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) change had the largest total effect on GWD (61.7 %), followed by socioeconomics (SEC) with a total effect of 32.3 % on GWD. The effect of climatic variability (CLV) was not significant, having the lowest total effect on GWD (6 %). Based on the designed PLS-SEM, LULC change was interpreted as the pathway through which SEC indirectly affects GWD, revealing that the indirect effect of SEC on GWD was greater than its direct effect. Groundwater storage estimations based on calculated hydrological constants revealed a rich storage of about 3.389 billion m3, of which 87.93 % is stored in the phreatic aquifer. For sustainable water quality and quantity management, source point management zones delineation for identifying treatment needs and protection zones, regular monitoring to ensure suitability for drinking, and supplementation from surface water sources were recommended for irrigated areas affected by similar challenges across the globe.
{"title":"Decoupling temporal groundwater depletion drivers using partial least squares structural equation modelling","authors":"Achivir Stella Yawe , Changlai Xiao , Oluwafemi Adewole Adeyeye , Xiujuan Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104271","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104271","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Attributing the drivers of groundwater depletion (GWD) is essential for sustainable management and planning. Although many studies have sought to accurately decouple the effects of these driving factors on GWD, they often consider only direct effects. Consequently, using a typical agricultural county in Northeast China, this study employed Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) to identify the main direct and indirect effects of factors on GWD. A significant GWD trend was observed from the year 2000–2019, with an average annual depletion rate of 0.082 m/year. The PLS-SEM was theoretically consistent, demonstrated reasonable predictive performance, and explained 79.2 % of the variance in GWD. Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) change had the largest total effect on GWD (61.7 %), followed by socioeconomics (SEC) with a total effect of 32.3 % on GWD. The effect of climatic variability (CLV) was not significant, having the lowest total effect on GWD (6 %). Based on the designed PLS-SEM, LULC change was interpreted as the pathway through which SEC indirectly affects GWD, revealing that the indirect effect of SEC on GWD was greater than its direct effect. Groundwater storage estimations based on calculated hydrological constants revealed a rich storage of about 3.389 billion m<sup>3</sup>, of which 87.93 % is stored in the phreatic aquifer. For sustainable water quality and quantity management, source point management zones delineation for identifying treatment needs and protection zones, regular monitoring to ensure suitability for drinking, and supplementation from surface water sources were recommended for irrigated areas affected by similar challenges across the globe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104271"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146022977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-12DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104302
Adolfo Quesada-Román , Néstor Montalván-Burbano
Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are gaining global attention as sustainable strategies for reducing disaster risks, yet a comprehensive quantitative synthesis of their application to natural hazards is lacking. This study aims to fill this gap by presenting a bibliometric analysis of 1359 peer-reviewed publications on NbS for natural hazards indexed in Scopus and Web of Science (2015–2024). A systematic bibliometric methodology was applied, combining performance analysis and keyword co-occurrence mapping using VOSviewer. Annual outputs grew from only 2 publications in 2015 to more than 400 in 2024, representing a 20,100 % increase. The corpus involves 5005 authors and 495 publication sources, with an average of 16 citations per document. Keyword mapping highlights six thematic clusters related to hydrometeorological disasters: flooding and stormwater management, coastal hazards, soil erosion and landslides, drought and water scarcity, urban and climate-related hazards, and integrated approaches. The United Kingdom and the United States are the leading contributors, together producing nearly 500 documents, followed by the Netherlands, Italy, and China. Journals such as Sustainability and Science of the Total Environment concentrate the largest number of NbS–hazard publications. Despite this rapid expansion, gaps persist in evidence of long-term effectiveness, equity of application, and governance. The results provide actionable insights by identifying thematic and geographic research priorities, collaboration patterns, and implementation gaps that can guide future research agendas, inform policy design, and support practitioners in scaling NbS for disaster risk reduction.
基于自然的解决方案（NbS）作为减少灾害风险的可持续战略正受到全球关注，但缺乏对其在自然灾害中的应用的全面定量综合。本研究旨在通过对Scopus和Web of Science检索的1359篇自然灾害国家统计局同行评议出版物（2015-2024）进行文献计量分析来填补这一空白。采用系统的文献计量学方法，结合性能分析和使用VOSviewer进行关键词共现映射。年产出从2015年的2篇增加到2024年的400多篇，增长了20,100%。该语料库涉及5005位作者和495个出版来源，平均每个文档被引用16次。关键字制图突出了与水文气象灾害相关的六个专题集群：洪水和雨水管理、沿海灾害、水土流失和山体滑坡、干旱和水资源短缺、城市和气候相关灾害以及综合对策。英国和美国是主要的贡献者，共编写了近500份文件，其次是荷兰、意大利和中国。《可持续性》和《全面环境科学》等期刊集中了最多的nbs危害出版物。尽管这种快速扩张，但在长期有效性、应用公平性和治理方面的证据仍然存在差距。通过确定专题和地理研究重点、合作模式和实施差距，研究结果提供了可操作的见解，可以指导未来的研究议程，为政策设计提供信息，并支持从业者扩大国家统计局以减少灾害风险。
{"title":"Global trends in scaling nature-based solutions for disaster risk reduction","authors":"Adolfo Quesada-Román , Néstor Montalván-Burbano","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104302","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2026.104302","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are gaining global attention as sustainable strategies for reducing disaster risks, yet a comprehensive quantitative synthesis of their application to natural hazards is lacking. This study aims to fill this gap by presenting a bibliometric analysis of 1359 peer-reviewed publications on NbS for natural hazards indexed in Scopus and Web of Science (2015–2024). A systematic bibliometric methodology was applied, combining performance analysis and keyword co-occurrence mapping using VOSviewer. Annual outputs grew from only 2 publications in 2015 to more than 400 in 2024, representing a 20,100 % increase. The corpus involves 5005 authors and 495 publication sources, with an average of 16 citations per document. Keyword mapping highlights six thematic clusters related to hydrometeorological disasters: flooding and stormwater management, coastal hazards, soil erosion and landslides, drought and water scarcity, urban and climate-related hazards, and integrated approaches. The United Kingdom and the United States are the leading contributors, together producing nearly 500 documents, followed by the Netherlands, Italy, and China. Journals such as Sustainability and Science of the Total Environment concentrate the largest number of NbS–hazard publications. Despite this rapid expansion, gaps persist in evidence of long-term effectiveness, equity of application, and governance. The results provide actionable insights by identifying thematic and geographic research priorities, collaboration patterns, and implementation gaps that can guide future research agendas, inform policy design, and support practitioners in scaling NbS for disaster risk reduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 104302"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146023081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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