Research on deforestation has grown exponentially due to the availability of satellite-based measures of forest cover. One of the most popular is Global Forest Change (GFC). Using GFC, we estimate that the Colombian civil conflict increases ‘forest cover’. Using an alternative source that validates the same remote sensing images in the ground, we find the opposite effect. This occurs because, in spite of its name, GFC measures tree cover, including vegetation other than native forest. Most users of GFC seem unaware of this. In our case, most of the conflicting results are explained by GFC’s misclassification of oil palm crops as ‘forest’. Our findings call for caution when using automated classification of imagery for specific research questions.
{"title":"The Perils of Misusing Remote Sensing Data: The Case of Forest Cover","authors":"L. Fergusson, S. Saavedra, Juan F. Vargas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3596173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3596173","url":null,"abstract":"Research on deforestation has grown exponentially due to the availability of satellite-based measures of forest cover. One of the most popular is Global Forest Change (GFC). Using GFC, we estimate that the Colombian civil conflict increases ‘forest cover’. Using an alternative source that validates the same remote sensing images in the ground, we find the opposite effect. This occurs because, in spite of its name, GFC measures tree cover, including vegetation other than native forest. Most users of GFC seem unaware of this. In our case, most of the conflicting results are explained by GFC’s misclassification of oil palm crops as ‘forest’. Our findings call for caution when using automated classification of imagery for specific research questions.","PeriodicalId":7501,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural & Natural Resource Economics eJournal","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88981808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article investigates what determines the price dynamics of the main cereals: barley, maize, rice and wheat. Using an extensive dataset of monthly time series covering the years 1980 - 2019, we extract four different common factors explaining the dynamics of commodity prices, exchange rates, financial and macroeconomic indicators. Next, we examine whether these factors are useful in explaining the movements of cereal prices. We show that models incorporating all four factors outperform significantly the naive random walk model in out-of-sample forecasting competition, especially for longer horizons. However, they have only marginally better performance than a simpler model based on the commodity factor alone.
{"title":"Common Factors and the Dynamics of Cereal Prices. A Forecasting Perspective","authors":"M. Kwas, Alessia Paccagnini, Micha l Rubaszek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3593128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3593128","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates what determines the price dynamics of the main cereals: barley, maize, rice and wheat. Using an extensive dataset of monthly time series covering the years 1980 - 2019, we extract four different common factors explaining the dynamics of commodity prices, exchange rates, financial and macroeconomic indicators. Next, we examine whether these factors are useful in explaining the movements of cereal prices. We show that models incorporating all four factors outperform significantly the naive random walk model in out-of-sample forecasting competition, especially for longer horizons. However, they have only marginally better performance than a simpler model based on the commodity factor alone.","PeriodicalId":7501,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural & Natural Resource Economics eJournal","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75403342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine investments in power generation projects under policy uncertainty, when the investor has the choice between two alternative technologies, a gas-fired plant and a wind plant. Increased likelihood of subsidy withdrawal reduces the payoff from and postpones investments in the wind technology. Simultaneously, it accelerates investments in gas, thereby eliminating or further postponing investments in wind capacity. We show that this substitution phenomenon can be of first order importance: it can have a significant impact on the timing of investment, the wind premium, and the probability of investing in the wind technology. Our results provide new insights about the scope and impact of green energy regulation.
{"title":"The Value of Green Energy under Regulation Uncertainty","authors":"J. Detemple, Y. Kitapbayev","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3592711","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3592711","url":null,"abstract":"We examine investments in power generation projects under policy uncertainty, when the investor has the choice between two alternative technologies, a gas-fired plant and a wind plant. Increased likelihood of subsidy withdrawal reduces the payoff from and postpones investments in the wind technology. Simultaneously, it accelerates investments in gas, thereby eliminating or further postponing investments in wind capacity. We show that this substitution phenomenon can be of first order importance: it can have a significant impact on the timing of investment, the wind premium, and the probability of investing in the wind technology. Our results provide new insights about the scope and impact of green energy regulation.","PeriodicalId":7501,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural & Natural Resource Economics eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89200613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Using an APT model where global temperature shocks are a systematically priced factor, the risk premium is significant and positive. Evidence is provided that positive exposure to temperature shocks is related to increasing CO2 emissions by industry. The global impact on the cost of equity could be as high as 2.8% per year, implying a global GDP loss of $2.2 Trillion per year due to global temperature shocks.
{"title":"The Pricing of Global Temperature Shocks in the Cost of Equity Capital","authors":"R. Gregory","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3585742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3585742","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using an APT model where global temperature shocks are a systematically priced factor, the risk premium is significant and positive. Evidence is provided that positive exposure to temperature shocks is related to increasing CO2 emissions by industry. The global impact on the cost of equity could be as high as 2.8% per year, implying a global GDP loss of $2.2 Trillion per year due to global temperature shocks.","PeriodicalId":7501,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural & Natural Resource Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78527836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
David J. Hardisty, Yoonji Shim, Daniel Sun, D. Griffin
The current research presents the "10-year energy cost" label as an effective nudge to increase energy efficient choices by retail consumers. Its efficacy is demonstrated in both lab and field studies (Studies 1a and 1b) and compared to other energy labels (Studies 4 and 5). The current work proposes that it is effective partly because many consumers have a latent "long-term dollar cost-reduction" goal. Normally, when consumers purchase energy using products, they do not think about long-term costs. However, the "10-year energy cost" label activates this latent goal in the presence of an appropriate behavioral path to achieving the goal, increasing the proportion of energy efficient choices (Studies 3 and 4). Thus, this nudge is somewhat selective, having its greatest impact on consumers who self-report actively pursuing long-term cost reduction goals (Study 5).
{"title":"Encouraging Energy Efficiency: Product Labels Activate Temporal Tradeoffs","authors":"David J. Hardisty, Yoonji Shim, Daniel Sun, D. Griffin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3576266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3576266","url":null,"abstract":"The current research presents the \"10-year energy cost\" label as an effective nudge to increase energy efficient choices by retail consumers. Its efficacy is demonstrated in both lab and field studies (Studies 1a and 1b) and compared to other energy labels (Studies 4 and 5). The current work proposes that it is effective partly because many consumers have a latent \"long-term dollar cost-reduction\" goal. Normally, when consumers purchase energy using products, they do not think about long-term costs. However, the \"10-year energy cost\" label activates this latent goal in the presence of an appropriate behavioral path to achieving the goal, increasing the proportion of energy efficient choices (Studies 3 and 4). Thus, this nudge is somewhat selective, having its greatest impact on consumers who self-report actively pursuing long-term cost reduction goals (Study 5).","PeriodicalId":7501,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural & Natural Resource Economics eJournal","volume":"530 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86911969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Unlike in many other countries, in Bulgaria there are no comprehensive analysis of the state and evolution of the system of knowledge sharing, innovation and digitalization in agriculture (AKIS). The goal of this paper is to fill the gap and analyze the state, efficiency and factors of the agricultural knowledge sharing, innovation and digitalization in Bulgaria at current stage of development. Analysis is based on 2019 expert assessment with 32 leading experts from research institutes of the Agricultural Academy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, agrarian and other universities, National Agricultural Advisory Service, and major professional associations of agricultural producers. The study has found out that AKIS of the country consists of diverse and numerous organizations, for which activities and complex relations have no sufficient official or other reliable information. The expert assessments in that study let us identify the state, and major achievements and challenges in development in of that complex system. The lack of data however, only partially can be compensated by experts’ assessments of these type. It is also necessary to carry out in-depth and representative surveys of individual components and the AKIS as a whole. Furthermore, it is necessary to institutionalize and regulate collection of official statistical, report, etc. information for the state and efficiency of that important system.
{"title":"State, Efficiency and Factors for Development of AKIS in Bulgaria","authors":"Hrabrin Bachev Храбрин Башев","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3574265","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3574265","url":null,"abstract":"Unlike in many other countries, in Bulgaria there are no comprehensive analysis of the state and evolution of the system of knowledge sharing, innovation and digitalization in agriculture (AKIS). The goal of this paper is to fill the gap and analyze the state, efficiency and factors of the agricultural knowledge sharing, innovation and digitalization in Bulgaria at current stage of development. Analysis is based on 2019 expert assessment with 32 leading experts from research institutes of the Agricultural Academy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, agrarian and other universities, National Agricultural Advisory Service, and major professional associations of agricultural producers. The study has found out that AKIS of the country consists of diverse and numerous organizations, for which activities and complex relations have no sufficient official or other reliable information. The expert assessments in that study let us identify the state, and major achievements and challenges in development in of that complex system. The lack of data however, only partially can be compensated by experts’ assessments of these type. It is also necessary to carry out in-depth and representative surveys of individual components and the AKIS as a whole. Furthermore, it is necessary to institutionalize and regulate collection of official statistical, report, etc. information for the state and efficiency of that important system.","PeriodicalId":7501,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural & Natural Resource Economics eJournal","volume":"92 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91066756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Functional foods have continuously spread in many countries. Japan is one of the largest functional food market in the world and the government approves them by scientific evidences. The country has managed functional food policies for around 30 years so that consumers in Japan are familiar with them. However, there is no research about the functional products in Japan using real purchasing log data from both marketing and policy viewpoints. This study is the first to reveal socio-demographic effects when consumers purchase functional foodstuff with a large amount of purchasing log data covering many different food categories. In addition, the differences among carriers were found and cluster analysis was conducted to clarify their differences. While previous studies using questionnaire-survey data report that socio- demographic characteristics have only minor impact on the acceptance of functional foods, it is found that socio-demographic factors affect the purchase of functional products in a real market environment. These results are useful and practical in consumer marketing and policy discussions.
{"title":"Who Chooses Functional Food?: Socio-Demographic Effects and Food Category Difference Estimated from Scanner-Panel Data","authors":"Rin Futara, T. Hoshino","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3567617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3567617","url":null,"abstract":"Functional foods have continuously spread in many countries. Japan is one of the largest functional food market in the world and the government approves them by scientific evidences. The country has managed functional food policies for around 30 years so that consumers in Japan are familiar with them. However, there is no research about the functional products in Japan using real purchasing log data from both marketing and policy viewpoints. This study is the first to reveal socio-demographic effects when consumers purchase functional foodstuff with a large amount of purchasing log data covering many different food categories. In addition, the differences among carriers were found and cluster analysis was conducted to clarify their differences. While previous studies using questionnaire-survey data report that socio- demographic characteristics have only minor impact on the acceptance of functional foods, it is found that socio-demographic factors affect the purchase of functional products in a real market environment. These results are useful and practical in consumer marketing and policy discussions.","PeriodicalId":7501,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural & Natural Resource Economics eJournal","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74179091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Policy: is a set of interrelated decision by actor(s) concerning the selection of goals and the means of achieving them within a specified situation where those decisions should, in principle, be within the power of those actors to achieve, as rational and theoretical product that replies to the demands of the powerful majority of the population. Public policies in the Sudan since independence in 1956 are generally a continuation of those adopted in colonial time of high government-led development, land acquisition, production controls and emphasis on irrigated agriculture. Land and crop taxes, especially indirect ones, formed the bulk of government budget revenue at that time. Agriculture is a cutting-edge sector of the economy that is both prosperous and innovative, yet the government has continued to ignore free-market principles by preserving an endless array of macroeconomic policies, credit and financing policy that centrally plan agriculture by controlling supply and thereby raising prices for consumers and increases the cost of production for producers. In general there are not a well-documented agricultural policies, but depending on the general economic policies that dictates the agricultural policies.
{"title":"Appraisal of Agricultural Policy in the Sudan","authors":"I. Mohamed, Farah Adil, Dr Ayat Abubakr Mohamed","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3560093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3560093","url":null,"abstract":"Policy: is a set of interrelated decision by actor(s) concerning the selection of goals and the means of achieving them within a specified situation where those decisions should, in principle, be within the power of those actors to achieve, as rational and theoretical product that replies to the demands of the powerful majority of the population. Public policies in the Sudan since independence in 1956 are generally a continuation of those adopted in colonial time of high government-led development, land acquisition, production controls and emphasis on irrigated agriculture. Land and crop taxes, especially indirect ones, formed the bulk of government budget revenue at that time. Agriculture is a cutting-edge sector of the economy that is both prosperous and innovative, yet the government has continued to ignore free-market principles by preserving an endless array of macroeconomic policies, credit and financing policy that centrally plan agriculture by controlling supply and thereby raising prices for consumers and increases the cost of production for producers. In general there are not a well-documented agricultural policies, but depending on the general economic policies that dictates the agricultural policies.","PeriodicalId":7501,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural & Natural Resource Economics eJournal","volume":"57 3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79258307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The issue of profitability of the agricultural production is often discussed within the framework of the problems of agricultural economics. The study showed a diversification in the profitability of the milk production depending on the cow herd’s size and identified the main determinants of positive economic results. The studies were conducted on commodity farms, which have been grouped according to the production scale, the criterion of scale was the number of dairy cows in the herd. Three scale ranges have been identified, i.e. small, medium and large. The data of 2014 and 2017 was used for the analysis. What was examined was the effectiveness of feeding cows in the identified farm groups and the technical and economic efficiency of the milk production. The full costs of the milk production (i.e. economic costs) were assessed and income from management activity was calculated. The results of the analyses show that as the number of cows in the herd increases, their milk yield and the price of milk are increasing. Farms with a large number of cows in the herd incurred the lowest full costs of the milk production, while obtaining the highest income from management activity per 1 cow and per 1 litre of milk. The measure of the milk production’s economic efficiency was the profitability index (revenues-to-economic costs ratio), the highest was recorded for the large-scale milk production, for the small scale this index did not exceed the profitability threshold.
{"title":"Influence of Scale Size on the Profitability of Cow’s Milk Production","authors":"A. Skarżyńska","doi":"10.30858/zer/117749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30858/zer/117749","url":null,"abstract":"The issue of profitability of the agricultural production is often discussed within the framework of the problems of agricultural economics. The study showed a diversification in the profitability of the milk production depending on the cow herd’s size and identified the main determinants of positive economic results. The studies were conducted on commodity farms, which have been grouped according to the production scale, the criterion of scale was the number of dairy cows in the herd. Three scale ranges have been identified, i.e. small, medium and large. The data of 2014 and 2017 was used for the analysis. What was examined was the effectiveness of feeding cows in the identified farm groups and the technical and economic efficiency of the milk production. The full costs of the milk production (i.e. economic costs) were assessed and income from management activity was calculated. The results of the analyses show that as the number of cows in the herd increases, their milk yield and the price of milk are increasing. Farms with a large number of cows in the herd incurred the lowest full costs of the milk production, while obtaining the highest income from management activity per 1 cow and per 1 litre of milk. The measure of the milk production’s economic efficiency was the profitability index (revenues-to-economic costs ratio), the highest was recorded for the large-scale milk production, for the small scale this index did not exceed the profitability threshold.","PeriodicalId":7501,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural & Natural Resource Economics eJournal","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91416359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-10DOI: 10.1142/s0217590820440014
Unal Seven, Semih Tumen
We present cross-country evidence suggesting that agricultural credits have a positive impact on agricultural productivity. In particular, we find that doubling agricultural credits generates around 4–5% increase in agricultural productivity. We use two different agricultural production measures: (i) the agricultural component of GDP and (ii) agricultural labor productivity. Employing a combination of panel-data and instrumental-variable methods, we show that agricultural credits operate mostly on the agricultural component of GDP in developing countries and agricultural labor productivity in developed countries. This suggests that the nature of the relationship between agricultural finance and agricultural output changes along the development path. We conjecture that the development of the agricultural finance system generates entry into the agricultural labor market, which pushes up the agricultural component of GDP and keeps down agricultural labor productivity in developing countries; while, in developed countries, it leads to labor-augmenting increase in agricultural production. We argue that replacement of the informal credit channel with formal and advanced agricultural credit markets along the development path is the main force driving the labor market response.
{"title":"Agricultural Credits and Agricultural Productivity: Cross-Country Evidence","authors":"Unal Seven, Semih Tumen","doi":"10.1142/s0217590820440014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0217590820440014","url":null,"abstract":"We present cross-country evidence suggesting that agricultural credits have a positive impact on agricultural productivity. In particular, we find that doubling agricultural credits generates around 4–5% increase in agricultural productivity. We use two different agricultural production measures: (i) the agricultural component of GDP and (ii) agricultural labor productivity. Employing a combination of panel-data and instrumental-variable methods, we show that agricultural credits operate mostly on the agricultural component of GDP in developing countries and agricultural labor productivity in developed countries. This suggests that the nature of the relationship between agricultural finance and agricultural output changes along the development path. We conjecture that the development of the agricultural finance system generates entry into the agricultural labor market, which pushes up the agricultural component of GDP and keeps down agricultural labor productivity in developing countries; while, in developed countries, it leads to labor-augmenting increase in agricultural production. We argue that replacement of the informal credit channel with formal and advanced agricultural credit markets along the development path is the main force driving the labor market response.","PeriodicalId":7501,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural & Natural Resource Economics eJournal","volume":"242 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91443264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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