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Farm-level adaptations to harvest logistics constraints in export-oriented grain systems 在以出口为导向的粮食系统中,农场层面对收获物流限制的适应
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104565
Garima , Doina Olaru , Brett Smith , Kadambot H.M. Siddique

Context

Grain Producers in export-oriented grain systems face mounting pressure to coordinate harvest logistics under growing climatic, institutional, and infrastructure constraints. These stresses are especially acute in regions with decentralised production, long transport routes, and limited receival and labour capacity. In such settings, logistics adaptability is not just an operational concern but a critical factor shaping farmers' access to markets and overall system performance.

Objective

This study investigates how Western Australian (WA) grain farmers adapt their storage, freight, and delivery strategies in response to misalignments between on-farm decision-making and centralised grain logistics infrastructure.

Methods

Using an abductive, mixed-methods approach—including 48 surveys, 19 interviews, and media and policy document analysis—we explored how farm-level decisions interact with institutional asymmetries and inflexible infrastructure. The design is theoretically informed by Actor–Network Theory to trace translations, enrolment and obligatory passage points among heterogeneous human/non-human actors, and by the Actors–Resources–Activities framework to map actor bonds, resource ties and activity links across inland logistics.

Results and conclusions

The findings reveal that growers rely on on-farm storage, investment in mobile freight capacity, and tactical scheduling to manage seasonal bottlenecks and limited delivery access. These strategies are shaped by market signals, spatial disparities in receival infrastructure and transport options and behavioural heuristics that help farmers navigate institutional constraints. While such adaptations provide short-term resilience, they also create inefficiencies and reinforce systemic inequities in harvest throughput, export timing, and access to price premiums.

Significance

This study contributes to ongoing debates on agricultural systems resilience by linking farm-level behavioural adaptation with infrastructure governance and logistics system design. It highlights the need for modelling frameworks—such as agent-based or participatory approaches—that reflect decentralised, spatially differentiated decision-making. Implications are drawn for transport planning, cooperative infrastructure policy, and the development of future decision-support systems tailored to export-reliant agricultural regions.
在日益严重的气候、体制和基础设施限制下,出口导向型粮食系统的粮食生产者在协调收获物流方面面临越来越大的压力。这些压力在生产分散、运输路线长、接收和劳动力能力有限的区域尤为严重。在这种情况下,物流适应性不仅是一个操作问题,而且是影响农民进入市场和整体系统绩效的关键因素。本研究调查了西澳大利亚州(WA)的粮食农民如何适应他们的储存、货运和交付策略,以应对农场决策和集中粮食物流基础设施之间的错位。方法采用诱捕、混合方法——包括48项调查、19次访谈以及媒体和政策文件分析——我们探讨了农场层面的决策如何与制度不对称和不灵活的基础设施相互作用。该设计在理论上以行动者-网络理论为依据,用于追踪异质人类/非人类行动者之间的翻译、登记和强制性通道点,并以行动者-资源-活动框架为依据,用于映射跨内陆物流的行动者联系、资源联系和活动联系。结果和结论研究结果表明,种植者依靠农场储存、对移动货运能力的投资和战术调度来管理季节性瓶颈和有限的交付通道。这些战略受到市场信号、接收基础设施和运输选择的空间差异以及帮助农民克服制度限制的行为启发法的影响。虽然这种调整提供了短期抵御能力,但也造成了效率低下,并加剧了收获吞吐量、出口时机和获得价格溢价方面的系统性不公平。本研究通过将农场层面的行为适应与基础设施治理和物流系统设计联系起来,为正在进行的关于农业系统弹性的辩论做出了贡献。它强调了对建模框架的需求,例如基于代理或参与式方法,这些框架反映了分散的、空间差异化的决策。本文对运输规划、合作基础设施政策以及为依赖出口的农业地区量身定制未来决策支持系统的发展提出了建议。
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引用次数: 0
There is more to it than just adoption: Exploring agricultural mechanisation journeys in South Asia 这不仅仅是采用:探索南亚的农业机械化之旅
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104564
B. Brown , P. Timsina , A. Chaudhary , E. Karki , A. Sharma , K.K. Das , A. Ghosh , M.W. Rahman

CONTEXT

Agri-mechanisation continues to be a policy and development priority across the Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia. However, adoption evaluations are often constrained by methodological limitations, including narrow sampling, restricted analytical scope, and an overreliance on binary adoption metrics. These shortcomings hinder a deeper understanding of the dynamics and quality of mechanisation adoption in the region.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to improve the assessment of agri-mechanisation adoption by introducing and applying a comprehensive analytical framework (‘Five Ps of Adoption Analysis’) to move beyond binary metrics and uncover the underlying patterns, processes, and pathways of mechanisation uptake.

METHODS

The ‘Five Ps’ framework was applied to survey data on the use of eight key agricultural machines collected from 5053 households across 55 villages in Nepal, India, and Bangladesh. The framework integrates proportional, temporal, typological, pathway, and process-based analyses to enable a multidimensional evaluation of adoption.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The analysis reveals critical insights into regional mechanisation trends, including significant constraints in extension systems, sub-optimal adoption rates, and the presence of pseudo-adoption. Temporal and typological analyses expose the uneven evolution of adoption processes across contexts and machine types. The framework offers a novel means to capture the diversity and progression of adoption over time, providing a richer understanding than traditional binary approaches.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study advances methodological approaches in mechanisation research and offers practical insights for policymakers and development practitioners. By identifying key barriers and dynamic adoption patterns, the findings support more targeted interventions and highlight the need for complementary qualitative research to inform sustainable agri-mechanisation strategies in South Asia.
农业机械化仍然是整个南亚东部恒河平原的政策和发展重点。然而,采用评估经常受到方法限制的约束,包括狭窄的抽样、受限的分析范围和对二元采用度量的过度依赖。这些缺点阻碍了对该地区机械化采用的动态和质量的深入了解。本研究旨在通过引入和应用一个全面的分析框架(“采用分析的五个p”)来改进对农业机械化采用的评估,以超越二元指标,揭示机械化采用的潜在模式、过程和途径。方法采用“五个p”框架对尼泊尔、印度和孟加拉国55个村庄的5053户家庭收集的8种关键农业机械的使用数据进行调查。该框架集成了比例、时间、类型、途径和基于过程的分析,以实现对采用的多维评估。结果与结论该分析揭示了区域机械化趋势的关键见解,包括推广系统的显著限制、次优采用率和伪采用率的存在。时间和类型分析揭示了跨上下文和机器类型的采用过程的不平衡演变。该框架提供了一种新颖的方法来捕捉随着时间的推移采用的多样性和进展,提供了比传统的二元方法更丰富的理解。本研究推进了机械化研究的方法论方法,并为政策制定者和发展实践者提供了实践见解。通过确定关键障碍和动态采用模式,研究结果支持更有针对性的干预措施,并强调需要进行补充性质的研究,为南亚的可持续农业机械化战略提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Applications of ecological niche and species distribution models in agricultural, livestock, and forestry systems: A comprehensive review 生态位和物种分布模型在农业、畜牧业和林业系统中的应用综述
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104542
Lucas A. Fadda , Rodrigo Lasa-Covarrubias , Luis Osorio-Olvera , M. Gabriela Murúa , Andrés Lira-Noriega

CONTEXT

Declining global agricultural productivity driven by climate variability and pest proliferation creates unprecedented food security challenges that traditional management approaches cannot adequately address. Ecological Niche Models (ENM) and Species Distribution Models (SDM) have emerged as powerful frameworks for predicting spatial distributions under future climate scenarios. These approaches enable identification of optimal cultivation zones and development of targeted adaptation strategies that enhance resilience across agricultural systems while supporting proactive management for global food security.

OBJECTIVE

This review explores the development and use of ENM and SDM in agriculture, livestock, and forestry, emphasizing their role in identifying production areas, assessing risks from pests, diseases, and weeds, and informing management decisions. It also addresses key methodological aspects and their growing importance in sanitary planning, food security, and climate adaptation.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review to examine ENM and SDM applications in productive systems. The analysis recorded specific uses, target organisms, study objectives, and key elements of model construction, parameterization, validation, transferability, and input data.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The review defined the current scope of ENM and SDM in productive systems and identified critical knowledge gaps. It highlights the value of the BAM framework to guide modeling design and interpretation. The findings provide a conceptual base for broader applications and identify future research and implementation opportunities.

SIGNIFICANCE

ENM and SDM transform complex ecological and production data into actionable insights that support policy, social, economic, and management decisions across agriculture, forestry, and livestock sectors. Their flexibility across scales enables tailored solutions. Technological advances will enhance their impact, positioning these models as essential tools for sustainable food security.
气候变率和有害生物扩散导致全球农业生产力下降,这对粮食安全构成前所未有的挑战,传统管理方法无法充分应对。生态位模型(ENM)和物种分布模型(SDM)已成为预测未来气候情景下空间分布的有力框架。这些方法有助于确定最佳种植区和制定有针对性的适应战略,从而增强整个农业系统的抵御力,同时支持对全球粮食安全的主动管理。本文综述了ENM和SDM在农业、畜牧业和林业中的发展和应用,强调了它们在确定生产区域、评估病虫害和杂草风险以及为管理决策提供信息方面的作用。它还讨论了关键的方法方面及其在卫生规划、粮食安全和气候适应方面日益增长的重要性。方法对ENM和SDM在生产系统中的应用进行了系统的文献综述。分析记录了具体用途、目标生物、研究目标以及模型构建、参数化、验证、可转移性和输入数据的关键要素。结果与结论本综述明确了ENM和SDM在生产系统中的当前范围,并确定了关键的知识缺口。它强调了BAM框架在指导建模设计和解释方面的价值。研究结果为更广泛的应用提供了概念基础,并确定了未来的研究和实施机会。意义enm和SDM将复杂的生态和生产数据转化为可操作的见解,为农业、林业和畜牧业的政策、社会、经济和管理决策提供支持。其跨规模的灵活性使定制解决方案成为可能。技术进步将增强其影响,使这些模式成为可持续粮食安全的重要工具。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating cumulative input effects in annual crop production: A LASSO-based panel data approach from India 估计年度作物生产的累积投入效应:来自印度的基于lasso的面板数据方法
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104555
Hiroyuki Takeshima , Avinash Kishore
<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>In non-experimental settings, evidence of interannual cumulative effects of inputs for annual crops (e.g., the effects of inputs in one year on outputs in the subsequent year) remains limited despite potential implications within dynamic production systems. The scarcity of sufficiently long annual panel data partly explains this. Furthermore, in non-experimental settings, quantities of many inputs are highly correlated with one another and across years, posing challenges when isolating such cumulative effects through conventional estimation methods.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study narrows these knowledge gaps by applying novel methods to unique annual panel datasets at district- and farm household-levels in India. Specifically, we identify whether certain inputs exhibit meaningfully significant cumulative effects on production relative to the non-cumulative effects and the effects of other inputs.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>We start with flexible translog production functions appropriate for identifying cumulative effects in non-experimental settings. We apply shrinkage methods (LASSO and GMM-LASSO) to approximate production functions with reduced parameter dimensions, addressing multicollinearity among multiple inputs as well as among the same inputs across years, and potential endogeneity in inputs.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS</h3><div>Throughout the shrinkage process, potassium fertilizer consistently remains a key predictor of outputs, while other inputs (land, labor, capital, irrigation, and other fertilizer nutrients) drop out mainly due to high collinearity with potassium and other inputs. More importantly, the cumulative quantity of potassium from the previous year, as well as the current year, is a consistently more critical determinant of production than the quantity of potassium from the current year alone, demonstrating the significant cumulative effects of potassium. These patterns hold both at district and farm levels across diverse agroecologies and cropping systems. Furthermore, the dynamic panel data analyses further suggest that farmers' use of potassium in the current year is significantly negatively affected by its use in the previous year, potentially stabilizing outputs across years. Earlier agronomic results suggesting residual effects of potassium are potentially relevant across wider geographic regions than previously thought. Simulation exercises reveal that the cumulative effects of potassium translate into a significant carryover of productivity into the following year and, combined with the dynamics, considerable repercussions on production during the subsequent years</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to verify the interannual cumulative effects of potassium fertilizer in nonexperimental settings, using methods that control for all other relevant production inputs and their potential cumulative effects with
在非实验环境下,尽管在动态生产系统中存在潜在影响,但证明一年生作物投入的年际累积效应(例如,一年投入对次年产出的影响)的证据仍然有限。缺乏足够长的年度面板数据在一定程度上解释了这一点。此外,在非实验环境中,许多输入的数量彼此之间高度相关,而且是跨年的,这给通过传统估计方法隔离这种累积效应带来了挑战。目的:本研究通过对印度地区和农户层面独特的年度面板数据集应用新颖的方法,缩小了这些知识差距。具体而言,我们确定相对于非累积效应和其他投入的效应,某些投入是否对生产表现出有意义的显著累积效应。方法我们从灵活的超对数生产函数开始,适合于识别非实验环境中的累积效应。我们应用收缩方法(LASSO和GMM-LASSO)来近似具有降维参数的生产函数,解决多个输入之间以及多年相同输入之间的多重共线性问题,以及输入中的潜在内生性问题。结果在整个收缩过程中,钾肥始终是产出的关键预测因子,而其他投入(土地、劳动力、资本、灌溉和其他肥料养分)主要由于与钾肥和其他投入的高度共线性而退出。更重要的是,前一年和本年度钾的累积量始终是比仅当年钾的数量更关键的生产决定因素,这表明钾的显著累积效应。这些模式在不同的农业生态和种植制度中都适用于地区和农场层面。此外,动态面板数据分析进一步表明,农民当年的钾用量受到前一年钾用量的显著负面影响,可能会稳定多年的产量。早期的农艺研究结果表明,钾的残留效应可能比以前认为的更广泛的地理区域相关。模拟试验表明,钾的累积效应转化为下一年的生产力的显著延续,并与动态相结合,对随后几年的生产产生相当大的影响。据作者所知,这是第一个在非实验环境下验证钾肥年际累积效应的研究。在灵活的超对数生产函数框架内,使用控制所有其他相关生产投入及其潜在累积效应的方法
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引用次数: 0
Spatial planning based on the modeling the food-energy-water‑carbon nexus: A case study of the Yangtze River basin 基于食物-能量-水-碳联系模型的空间规划——以长江流域为例
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104552
Beibei Guo , Xian Zou , Yingxue Cui , Suchen Ying , Yinkang Zhou

Context

The food-energy-water (FEW) nexus is crucial for addressing global resource conflicts and sustainability challenges. It achieves this by securing resources, enhancing synergies, managing competition, and supporting climate adaptation. In the context of China, there is an urgent need to balance FEW securities with carbon neutrality in its food system, particularly given the complex environmental and socioeconomic pressures it faces.

Objective

This study aims to analyze correlations within the food-energy-water‑carbon (FEWC) nexus, characterize its resources, identify spatial allocation patterns and synergistic relationships, determine obstacles to agricultural sustainability, land planning, and cultivated land protection within the nexus, and propose tailored protection strategies for the basin.

Methods

Utilizing multi-source remote sensing data, FEWC resource potentials were characterized (integrated food production, power plant/renewable energy potential, total regional water production, carbon storage). Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the Yangtze River basin data to study the FEWC nexus, using representative indicators providing a robust scientific characterization.

Results and conclusions

PCA showed the first principal component indicates FEWC synergies (reflecting overall synergy intensity), while the second reveals FEWC trade-offs. FEWC nexus evolution enhanced overall synergy but displayed an inverted U-shape pattern in terrestrial ecosystems, marked by growing energy dominance and a shift of food status. Consequently, food security's strategic importance decreased amid rising energy consumption, persistent water scarcity, and increasing carbon neutrality demands. Future conflicts concentrate in cultivated land areas. Spatial zoning requires prioritizing farmland protection and developing energy-agriculture linkages. Monitoring should track food production polarization and conflict zone changes, with FEWC synergy projected to rise in more than 70 % of cities. Carbon storage dynamics must also be monitored, while agricultural buffer zones are needed to reduce ecological risks.

Significance

The study provides valuable insights applicable to territorial spatial planning efforts at the basin scale. Furthermore, it offers tools with which to analyze complex resource nexuses and strategies for sustainable agricultural land management on a global scale.
粮食-能源-水(FEW)关系对于解决全球资源冲突和可持续性挑战至关重要。它通过确保资源、加强协同效应、管理竞争和支持气候适应来实现这一目标。在中国的背景下,特别是考虑到其面临的复杂的环境和社会经济压力,迫切需要在其粮食系统中平衡少数证券与碳中和。目的分析粮食-能源-水-碳(FEWC)关系的相关性,表征其资源特征,识别空间配置格局和协同关系,确定该关系中农业可持续发展、土地规划和耕地保护的障碍,并提出针对性的流域保护策略。方法利用多源遥感数据,对低碳水化合物资源潜力(综合粮食生产潜力、电厂/可再生能源潜力、区域总产水量、碳储量)进行表征。应用主成分分析(PCA)对长江流域数据进行分析,利用代表性指标对FEWC联系进行了稳健的科学表征。结果与结论spca表明,第一个主成分反映了FEWC的协同效应(反映了整体协同强度),第二个主成分反映了FEWC的权衡。FEWC联系演化增强了陆地生态系统的整体协同作用,但表现为能量优势增强和食物地位转移的倒u型格局。因此,在能源消耗不断上升、水资源持续短缺和碳中和需求不断增加的情况下,粮食安全的战略重要性有所下降。未来的冲突集中在耕地地区。空间分区要求优先考虑农田保护和发展能源与农业的联系。监测应跟踪粮食生产两极分化和冲突地区的变化,预计在70%以上的城市中,FEWC的协同效应将有所提高。碳储量动态也必须监测,同时需要农业缓冲区来减少生态风险。意义本研究为流域尺度的国土空间规划提供了有价值的见解。此外,它还提供了在全球范围内分析复杂资源关系和可持续农业用地管理战略的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Comprehensive review of optimization and surrogate models for agricultural water resources and reservoir water management 农业水资源与水库水资源管理优化与替代模型综述
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104562
Ankita Kumari , Tinesh Pathania

Context:

The efficient and coordinated management of water resource systems is crucial to address increasing demands and resource uncertainties. As a result, good water resources management in agricultural and reservoir systems is vital for ensuring water security, better resource utilization, and sustaining agricultural productivity.

Objective:

In this respect, optimization models are employed to analyze several management scenarios, allowing decision-makers to identify optimal strategies under varying conditions. Therefore, we examined optimization-based approaches to address interconnected challenges to promote better understanding of systemic balances between agricultural water and reservoir-based systems.

Methods:

We conducted a comprehensive review of more than 400 research articles. The review article is grouped into sections, which include the applications of optimization techniques in irrigation, surface water and groundwater management, water-energy- food (WEF) nexus, and reservoir management.

Results and conclusions:

The review emphasizes the importance of agricultural water resources and reservoir management for developing an efficient water resource system. This includes simulation–optimization (SO) models that facilitate sustained water policies for conflicting objectives. It also highlights the increasing applications of machine learning (ML) based surrogate models to reduce computational efforts. Further, several reviewed studies indicate that the participation of different stakeholders in the optimization process leads to better water resource utilization.

Significance:

The review presents an overview containing numerous case studies throughout the world, demonstrating the applicability of optimization and ML methodologies. This serves as an important document for academicians, industry experts, and policymakers with the advantages of sustainable water system operations and advances in optimization modeling techniques.
背景:水资源系统的有效和协调管理对于解决日益增长的需求和资源的不确定性至关重要。因此,农业和水库系统的良好水资源管理对于确保水安全、更好地利用资源和维持农业生产力至关重要。目的:在这方面,利用优化模型分析几种管理场景,使决策者能够在不同条件下识别最优策略。因此,我们研究了基于优化的方法来解决相互关联的挑战,以促进对农业用水和水库系统之间系统平衡的更好理解。方法:我们对400多篇研究论文进行了综合综述。本文分为几个部分,包括优化技术在灌溉、地表水和地下水管理、水-能源-粮食(WEF)关系和水库管理中的应用。结果与结论:本文强调了农业水资源和水库管理对构建高效水资源系统的重要性。这包括模拟-优化(SO)模型,该模型有助于为相互冲突的目标制定可持续的水政策。它还强调了基于机器学习(ML)的代理模型的越来越多的应用,以减少计算工作量。此外,一些研究表明,不同利益相关者参与优化过程可以更好地利用水资源。意义:该审查提出了一个概述,其中包含了世界各地的众多案例研究,展示了优化和ML方法的适用性。这是一份重要的文件,为学者、行业专家和政策制定者提供了可持续水系统运行的优势和优化建模技术的进展。
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引用次数: 0
Integrated land-use and agricultural emissions modeling reveals untapped mitigation potential in livestock feed substitution 综合土地利用和农业排放模型揭示了牲畜饲料替代方面尚未开发的缓解潜力
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104558
Xue Yang , Yijie Yao , Yingxu Fan , Vilma Sandström
CONTEXT
With rising global demand for animal-sourced foods, controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock production has become critical to mitigating climate change. While prior research has quantified the global potential of using agricultural by-products to replace crop feeds, a comprehensive evaluation of the associated GHG mitigation benefits—particularly when considering both land-use change (LUC) and agricultural production emissions—has not been addressed.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate the global integrated GHG mitigation potential of replacing livestock crop feeds with agricultural by-products, by combining emissions from both land-use change and agricultural activities, while also identifying regional variations in this potential.

METHODS

Five major agricultural by-products (cereal bran, molasses, sugar beet pulp, citrus pulp, and distillers' grains) were selected to replace six energy-intensive crop feeds across 19 global regions. The methodology comprised four key steps: (1) developing region-specific substitution matrices based on previous literature; (2) estimating land-use change emissions of replaced crop feeds and replacing by-products using spatially explicit data; (3) assessing agricultural emissions of replaced crop feeds and replacing by-products with statistical data; and (4) calculating global GHG mitigation potential as the difference between emissions from replaced crop feeds and those from replacing by-products.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Globally, replacing crop feeds with agricultural by-products was projected to reduce GHG emissions by 167 Mt. CO₂-eq. (80–276 Mt. CO₂-eq) annually over a 30-year timeframe, which accounts for 9 % (4 %–14 %) of the total annual emissions from crop feeds; 80 % of this reduction is attributed to land carbon restoration. Regionally, South-eastern Asia (31 Mt. CO₂-eq) and Southern Asia (30 Mt. CO₂-eq) emerge as mitigation hotspots, primarily due to their status as tropical and subtropical regions with high native land carbon stocks. Eastern Asia, Eastern Europe, Southern America, and Western Europe exhibit mitigation potentials ranging from 14 to 20 Mt. CO₂-eq, driven mainly by their large volumes of replaced crop feeds.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study advances the development of a framework for assessing land-use and agricultural emission reductions from crop feed substitution with by-products. It provides a foundational reference for further research on mitigation strategies in the global livestock feed sector.
背景随着全球对动物性食品需求的不断增长,控制畜牧生产产生的温室气体(GHG)排放对于减缓气候变化至关重要。虽然先前的研究量化了利用农业副产品替代作物饲料的全球潜力,但尚未对相关的温室气体缓解效益进行全面评估,特别是在考虑土地利用变化(LUC)和农业生产排放时。本研究旨在通过结合土地利用变化和农业活动产生的排放,评估用农业副产品替代牲畜作物饲料的全球综合温室气体缓解潜力,同时确定这一潜力的区域差异。方法选择全球19个地区的5种主要农业副产品(谷物麸皮、糖蜜、甜菜浆、柑橘浆和酒糟)替代6种高耗能作物饲料。该方法包括四个关键步骤:(1)基于先前的文献建立特定区域的替代矩阵;(2)利用空间显式数据估算替代作物饲料和替代副产品的土地利用变化排放;(3)评估替代作物饲料的农业排放,用统计数据替代副产品;(4)计算全球温室气体减缓潜力,即替代作物饲料排放与替代副产品排放之间的差异。结果与结论在全球范围内,用农业副产品替代作物饲料预计可减少1.67亿吨二氧化碳当量的温室气体排放。(80 - 2.76亿吨二氧化碳当量),占作物饲料年总排放量的9% (4% - 14%);其中80%的减少归功于土地碳恢复。从区域上看,东南亚(31亿吨二氧化碳当量)和南亚(30亿吨二氧化碳当量)成为缓解热点,这主要是因为它们是热带和亚热带地区,具有较高的原生土地碳储量。东亚、东欧、南美和西欧的减排潜力在1400万吨至2000万吨二氧化碳当量之间,这主要是由于它们大量替换了作物饲料。本研究促进了一个框架的发展,用于评估用副产品替代作物饲料的土地利用和农业减排。为进一步研究全球牲畜饲料行业的缓解战略提供了基础参考。
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引用次数: 0
A novel framework for evaluating farmer resilience: Methodological advances and theoretical foundations 评估农民复原力的新框架:方法进展和理论基础
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104554
Kieron Moller , A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi , Mohammad Tirgari , Nilson Vieira Junior , Ana Julia Paula Carcedo , Ignacio Ciampitti , P.V. Vara Prasad , Amadiane Diallo
<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Many challenges, such as climate change, conflict, and economic fluctuations, pose a significant threat to global agriculture and food systems. Therefore, it is crucial to develop and evaluate methods to enhance agricultural resilience.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVES</h3><div>This study aims to identify knowledge gaps in commonly used methods for determining farm household resilience. It addresses these gaps by developing a novel method for determining resilience. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to (1) identify knowledge gaps within existing resilience determination literature and develop a resilience quantification approach and (2) incorporate the shock-failure-recovery sequence to measure resilience. Incorporating this sequence allows understanding the dynamic relationship between failure and recovery phases and how it varies across study units.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>A comprehensive resilience measure for farmers' livelihoods is established by integrating two fundamental dimensions: (1) the system's failure dynamics caused by external shocks and (2) the recovery path following these shocks. This study extends these aspects within the theoretical framework of the agricultural household model, which simultaneously captures farmers' production and consumption decisions within rural economies. The agricultural household model is particularly relevant in contexts characterized by incomplete or missing markets, which often arise due to high transaction costs. By leveraging this framework, we conceptualize failure and recovery as intrinsic components of farmers' resilience, systematically linking household decision-making processes to resilience assessment.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>The proposed resilience measurement procedure offers two key advantages over conventional methodologies: (1) it conceptualizes resilience as an explicitly quantifiable variable rather than a latent construct; and (2) it mitigates biases stemming from perception-based assessments and subjective valuations. The econometric framework improves methodological flexibility. It estimates the marginal effect of the farmer indicator variable on recovery probabilities and accommodates diverse data structures. However, ensuring the procedure's accuracy requires further refinement through rigorous validation studies, multidimensional assessment, context-specific indicator selection, and the development of standardized analytical models to enhance methodological consistency and policy relevance.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This study contributes to the field of agricultural resilience by introducing a novel, data-driven framework. The framework can integrate farmers' indicator variables related to economic, nutritional, risk, and other livelihood aspects to measure resilience. The results from this resilience measurement approach can enhance farmers' resilience, helping achieve sustainable dev
气候变化、冲突和经济波动等诸多挑战对全球农业和粮食系统构成重大威胁。因此,制定和评估提高农业抵御力的方法至关重要。目的本研究旨在确定农户复原力常用方法的知识缺口。它通过开发一种确定弹性的新方法来解决这些差距。因此,本研究的目标是:(1)识别现有弹性测定文献中的知识空白,并开发弹性量化方法;(2)采用冲击-失效-恢复序列来测量弹性。结合这个序列可以理解故障和恢复阶段之间的动态关系,以及它在不同的研究单元之间是如何变化的。方法通过整合两个基本维度(1)外部冲击导致的系统失效动力学和(2)冲击后的恢复路径,建立农户生计综合弹性测度。本研究在农户模型的理论框架内扩展了这些方面,农户模型同时捕捉了农村经济中农民的生产和消费决策。农户模式在市场不完全或缺失的情况下尤其适用,这往往是由于交易成本高造成的。通过利用这一框架,我们将失败和恢复概念化为农民复原力的内在组成部分,系统地将家庭决策过程与复原力评估联系起来。结果与结论与传统测量方法相比,本文提出的弹性测量方法具有两个主要优势:(1)它将弹性定义为一个明确的可量化变量,而不是一个潜在的构式;(2)减轻了基于感知的评估和主观评价所产生的偏见。计量经济学框架提高了方法的灵活性。它估计农民指标变量对恢复概率的边际效应,并适应不同的数据结构。然而,为了确保程序的准确性,需要通过严格的验证研究、多维评估、针对具体情况的指标选择以及开发标准化分析模型来进一步改进,以提高方法的一致性和政策相关性。本研究通过引入一个新颖的数据驱动框架,为农业弹性领域做出了贡献。该框架可以整合农民与经济、营养、风险和其他生计方面相关的指标变量,以衡量抗灾能力。这种复原力测量方法的结果可以增强农民的复原力,帮助实现应对气候和非气候冲击的可持续发展目标。将弹性的故障恢复方面纳入数学公式构成了所提议框架的主要方法创新。
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引用次数: 0
Identification of synergies and trade-offs in cropping system performance in southern Australia 确定南澳大利亚种植制度绩效的协同效应和权衡
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104556
Li Luo , Matthew J. Knowling , Aaron C. Zecchin , Glenn K. McDonald
<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Expectations are mounting on cropping systems to satisfy objectives across social, economic, and environmental dimensions. To identify cropping systems with an enhanced capacity to deliver on these diverse objectives, it is essential to understand both how these systems perform for a wide range of quantifiable performance metrics and the extent of synergies and trade-offs between these metrics, as they describe the underlying system's processes and properties. Such knowledge is presently lacking for dryland cropping systems in the southern grains region of Australia (SGR), one of the largest global grain production regions.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study (1) evaluates the performance of different cropping systems in the SGR for a range of performance metrics and (2) explores the relationships between these metrics for the range of case studies considered.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>Using the process-based crop model, APSIM, we simulated the water-limited production potential of different cropping systems across diverse environments, from which performance metrics were computed to describe key system processes and properties. A total of 16 systems, with varying cropping diversity and intensity, were evaluated using 14 performance metrics spanning six objectives. Three case studies collectively represent key variabilities in climate and soil within the SGR.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>No single cropping system consistently outperformed others across all performance metrics. The ‘baseline’ systems, which reflect the most commonly adopted system in given regions, were generally not the top performers across several key metrics, highlighting some potential opportunities for performance improvements. Systems achieving higher productivity (e.g., water use efficiency (WUE)), were generally associated with improved environmental outcomes across all study areas, including lower CO<sub>2</sub>-e emissions and decreased relative soil loss. In addition, while higher WUE was linked to greater gross margins (GM) in the low- and high-rainfall zones, this relationship was not as evident in the mid-rainfall zone. Synergies were strongest for the high rainfall zone case study, where the correlation coefficients were 0.94 between WUE and GM, and −0.72 between WUE and CO<sub>2</sub>-e emissions. Trade-offs and synergies were influenced by both site- and system-specific factors.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>Our findings highlight that identified synergies between economic and environmental metrics could serve to enhance confidence in growers regarding strategic cropping decisions. Our findings offer region-specific insights that can help inform decisions towards more sustainable and profitable cropping systems, while some relationships that were found to be independent of system and sites may be applicable to other cropping regions in similar dryland farming worldwide.</div></
人们对种植制度的期望越来越高,以满足社会、经济和环境各方面的目标。为了确定具有实现这些不同目标的增强能力的种植系统,有必要了解这些系统在广泛的可量化绩效指标上的表现,以及这些指标之间的协同作用和权衡的程度,因为它们描述了底层系统的过程和特性。目前,全球最大的粮食生产区之一——澳大利亚南部粮食产区(SGR)的旱地种植系统缺乏这方面的知识。本研究(1)评估了SGR中不同种植系统的一系列性能指标的性能,(2)探讨了这些指标之间的关系,并考虑了案例研究的范围。方法利用基于过程的作物模型APSIM,模拟了不同种植制度在不同环境下的限水生产潜力,并以此计算绩效指标来描述关键的系统过程和特性。采用涵盖6个目标的14个绩效指标对16个系统进行了评估,这些系统具有不同的种植多样性和强度。三个案例研究共同代表了SGR内气候和土壤的关键变化。结果和结论没有单一种植系统在所有性能指标上都优于其他系统。“基线”系统反映了特定地区最普遍采用的系统,在几个关键指标上通常不是表现最好的,这突出了一些潜在的绩效改进机会。实现更高生产力(例如,水利用效率(WUE))的系统通常与所有研究区域的环境结果改善有关,包括降低CO2-e排放和减少相对土壤流失。此外,虽然高水分利用效率与高降雨区较高的毛利率(GM)相关,但这种关系在中降雨区并不明显。在高降雨区案例研究中,协同效应最强,WUE与GM之间的相关系数为0.94,WUE与CO2-e排放之间的相关系数为- 0.72。权衡和协同效应受到场地和系统特定因素的影响。意义:我们的研究结果强调,经济和环境指标之间的协同效应可以增强种植者对战略性种植决策的信心。我们的研究结果提供了特定区域的见解,可以帮助为更可持续和更有利可图的种植系统的决策提供信息,而发现的一些独立于系统和地点的关系可能适用于全球类似旱地农业的其他种植区域。
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引用次数: 0
Standardised framework for analysis of greenhouse performance using key performance indicators 使用关键绩效指标分析温室绩效的标准化框架
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104545
William Sylvain, Timothé Lalonde, Danielle Monfet, Didier Haillot

CONTEXT

There is a growing interest in sustainable and year-round food production through protected agriculture. Greenhouses play a key role in this transition, but their performance varies significantly with climate conditions and operational strategies.

OBJECTIVE

As a result, this study proposes a standardised and practical framework for evaluating greenhouse performance, grounded in a systematic analysis of key performance indicators (KPI).

METHODS

A total of 16 key performance indicators (KPI) were identified from the literature and classified into three main categories: thermal, daylighting, and energy. From these, a refined set of 10 KPI was selected based on their applicability, non-redundancy, and relevance for both passive and active greenhouses. These KPI were applied to a case study involving a naturally ventilated, free-standing Gothic arch greenhouse, modelled using the TRNSYS dynamic simulation software. The model was validated using measured data and used to assess greenhouse performance under three distinct Canadian climates: cold (Montréal), very cold (Baie-Comeau), and subarctic (Kuujjuaq).

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The analysis revealed that while some KPI, such as the average indoor air temperature (T¯ai,ND) and daily light integral (DLI), are essential for assessing crop survival, others provided insights into growing potential, operational climate control or the environmental and economic viability of the system. This study introduced two refined indicators for greenhouse cultivation in cold climates: TGSLlimit, which excludes lethal short-term cold events, and OGSL, which combines temperature and daylight to define realistic growing conditions. These demonstrated that combining different classes of KPI enabled more meaningful, comparative assessments of greenhouse suitability, offering practical guidance for optimising crop production and energy use under diverse climates.

SIGNIFICANCE

This work contributes to a standardised and practical framework for evaluating greenhouse performance, paving the way for more informed decision-making in controlled environment agriculture.
背景人们对通过受保护农业实现可持续的全年粮食生产越来越感兴趣。温室在这一转变中发挥着关键作用,但它们的表现因气候条件和运营策略而有很大差异。因此,本研究在对关键绩效指标(KPI)进行系统分析的基础上,提出了一个评估温室绩效的标准化和实用框架。方法从文献中确定16个关键绩效指标,并将其分为热、采光和能源3大类。从中,根据它们的适用性、非冗余性和被动和主动温室的相关性,选择了一组精炼的10个KPI。这些KPI应用于一个案例研究,涉及一个自然通风的独立式哥特式拱形温室,使用TRNSYS动态仿真软件进行建模。该模型使用测量数据进行了验证,并用于评估加拿大三种不同气候条件下的温室性能:寒冷(蒙特兰萨摩)、极冷(拜-科莫)和亚北极(库伊juaq)。结果与结论分析表明,虽然一些KPI,如室内平均空气温度(T¯ai,ND)和日光照积分(DLI),对于评估作物成活率至关重要,但其他KPI可以提供对系统的生长潜力,操作气候控制或环境和经济可行性的见解。本研究引入了两个改进的寒冷气候下温室栽培指标:TGSLlimit(排除致命的短期寒冷事件)和OGSL(结合温度和日光来确定实际生长条件)。这些研究表明,将不同类别的KPI结合起来,可以对温室适用性进行更有意义的比较评估,为在不同气候条件下优化作物生产和能源使用提供实用指导。这项工作有助于建立一个评估温室绩效的标准化和实用框架,为在受控环境农业中做出更明智的决策铺平道路。
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Agricultural Systems
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