Background
Melanoma is an aggressive skin cancer with a high metastatic potential and mortality risk. Identifying risk factors for distant metastasis is crucial for optimizing surveillance strategies. The authors aimed to evaluate the predictors of distant metastasis in early-stage cutaneous melanoma within a Turkish patient cohort.
Methods
A retrospective cohort study was conducted on patients with stage I–II melanoma, diagnosed between 2004 and 2024 at the Department of Dermatology, Dokuz Eylul University. A minimum follow-up period of five years was ensured. Demographic, clinical, and histopathological variables were analyzed for their association with distant metastasis using univariate and multivariate statistical models.
Results
Among 148 patients, distant metastasis occurred in 36 (24.3%) during follow-up. Multivariate analysis identified age (HR = 1.03 per year, p = 0.050), Breslow thickness (HR = 1.19 per mm, p = 0.008), ulceration (HR = 3.05, p = 0.028), and Lymphovascular Invasion (LVI) (HR = 4.20, p = 0.002) as significant independent predictors of distant metastasis. The risk was found to increase markedly, particularly after the age of 40. Additionally, the optimal cut-off value for Breslow thickness was determined to be 2.73 mm, with a sensitivity of 69% and a specificity of 71% based on ROC curve analysis.
Conclusion
Increasing age, Breslow thickness, ulceration, and LVI were identified as independent risk factors for distant metastasis in early-stage cutaneous melanoma. Notably, patients over 40-years and those with Breslow thickness >2.73 mm were at significantly higher risk. Further studies are warranted to validate these results and facilitate their integration into clinical practice.
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