Atmospheric Research最新文献

{"title":"Improving air pollution source apportionment in size-segregated PM using Pb isotope-based Bayesian mixing models in Tarragona (Spain)","authors":"Edson Plasencia Sánchez ,&nbsp;Mònica Rosell ,&nbsp;Clara Torrentó ,&nbsp;Francisco Sánchez-Soberón ,&nbsp;Joaquim Rovira ,&nbsp;Jordi Sierra ,&nbsp;Marta Schuhmacher ,&nbsp;Albert Soler ,&nbsp;David Widory","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107939","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107939","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A total of 75 outdoor PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and PM₁ samples from 14 schools, and 9 samples from potential local emission sources, were collected and analysed for their metallic content and lead (Pb) isotope ratios in 2 seasonal campaigns in Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain) to identify and apportion contamination sources and to assess associated health risks. Lead was predominantly found in PM₁, and although its levels were below air quality standards, its Enrichment Factors (EF), along with those of other potentially toxic elements (Cd, Cr, Cu and Sb), indicated extremely severe enrichment in all PM sizes. Seasonal differentiation in Pb enrichment was particularly significant in PM₁ during the cold campaign. This suggests an anthropogenic origin, mainly from combustion processes such as road traffic and a municipal solid waste incinerator, as supported by profiles of other metals (Cu, V and Zn) and the spatial distribution of the EF_Pb, respectively. Non-radiogenic Pb isotope ratios (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) indicated a geogenic origin in some PM₁₀ samples, based on their similarity to the geochronology of specific Spanish ore samples. However, radiogenic ratios (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁷Pb and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb) pointed to coal-fired electrical plants (EGUs) and road traffic as the sources of the majority of the samples. These findings were corroborated by EF spatial distribution maps and by our previous study coupling air masses back trajectories with C and N isotopes in the same PM samples. Bayesian mixing models using both ²⁰⁴Pb- and ²⁰⁷Pb-normalised Pb isotope ratios estimated sources' contributions as follows: i) municipal solid waste incinerator (at least 10 % in PM₁₀ and up to 60 % in both PM_2.5 and PM₁); ii) road traffic (up to 40 % for all size fractions); iii) coal-fired EGUs (around 20 % for all size fractions); and iv) geogenic particles (&lt;10 % for all size fractions). Despite this strong contribution of anthropogenic sources, the potential health impacts of potentially toxic elements exposure were low, i.e., 3 additional cancer cases for adults per million of people due to Pb exposure, which nonetheless is comparable to levels observed in cities with populations 30 or more times larger than that of Tarragona.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"316 ","pages":"Article 107939"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Black carbon pollution over India simulated with recent emission inventories and WRF-CHEM model","authors":"Rahul Sheoran ,&nbsp;Sanhita Ghosh ,&nbsp;U.C. Dumka ,&nbsp;D.G. Kaskaoutis ,&nbsp;R.E.P. Sotiropoulou ,&nbsp;S.D. Attri ,&nbsp;V.K. Soni ,&nbsp;Suresh Tiwari ,&nbsp;Sidharth Singh ,&nbsp;Rakesh K. Tiwari","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107931","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107931","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study simulates the BC concentrations in India using the WRF-Chem model with four emissions inventories: Expt-I (Constrained emissions), Expt-II (SMOG-India), Expt-III (EDGAR-HTAP V3), and Expt-IV (Mix), emphasizing on two domains, the whole Indian region (D01) and the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) (D02). The simulated BC over D01 was 2–3 times higher using Expt-I compared to Expt-II and Expt-III, despite the similar spatial-seasonal variations. BC simulations from Expt-I show good agreement with observed data, particularly at megacities like Delhi and Kolkata with high anthropogenic emissions. However, Expt-III underestimates BC concentrations at certain stations, suggesting the need for improvement in emission-inventory strength and proper distribution of emissions. The diurnal BC pattern from Expt-I matches well with measured BC, with higher concentrations during late evening and night hours in the IGP and large cities. High-altitude stations present a BC peak during late afternoon hours due to the transport of pollutants from the IGP within a deeper mixing layer. BC simulations show better agreement during the daytime than nighttime, indicating the effect of nighttime emission strength that needs better representation, while the model underestimations maximize in winter, associated with the highest BC concentrations. Source apportionment analysis revealed the highest contribution from the domestic sector to total BC emissions (58 %) during winter, underscoring the reliance on biofuel combustion for household cooking and heating. The energy and industrial sector contributed significantly to the annual BC levels over the IGP, ranging from 22 % in winter to 28 % in monsoon. The increased contribution from the open burning sector during post-monsoon indicates the effect of crop residue burning in NW IGP. By quantifying BC concentration and identifying its dominant sources utilizing the robust emission inventory, this work provides actionable insights for policymakers and a scientific basis for strategies to mitigate BC pollution and its associated environmental and health impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107931"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143027326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of six latest precipitation datasets for extreme precipitation estimates and hydrological application across various climate regions in China","authors":"Yongjing Wan ,&nbsp;Daiyuan Li ,&nbsp;Jingjing Sun ,&nbsp;Mingming Wang ,&nbsp;Han Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107932","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107932","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The evaluation of gridded precipitation datasets is crucial for enhancing precipitation accuracy and supporting its applications. This study comprehensively evaluated the performances of six widely used long-term precipitation datasets in capturing extreme precipitation and streamflow over China using two hydrological models. These datasets include one satellite-reanalysis-gauge dataset (MSWEP V2), two gauged-based datasets (GPCC and CPC), and three reanalysis datasets (NECP-2, MERRA-2, and ERA5). The evaluation was performed at a daily timescale for the period 1982–2020. Compared with the rain gauge observations, GPCC provides the best performance in extreme precipitation estimation, followed by MSWEPV2, CPC, and MERRA-2. All precipitation datasets tend to underestimate annual maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1) and annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5), while they overestimate the extremely wet days (R95p) in dry northwestern China and underestimate it in wet southeastern China. Integrating gauge data into gridded precipitation datasets enhances the accuracy of extreme precipitation measurements. For streamflow simulation, GPCC shows the best performances across most catchments regarding hydrological calibration score (Kling–Gupta efficiency, KGE), except in arid northwestern China, where MSWEP V2 performed best. The ability of precipitation datasets to capture extreme streamflow is associated with considerable uncertainties, depending on the hydrological model used, and no single dataset consistently outperforms others. Besides, the influence of hydrological model selection in streamflow simulations is more significant in dry and high-latitude mountainous regions than in wet and low-latitude regions. This study provides significant insights into the reliability of the latest precipitation datasets and their applications in hydrological modeling, which is expected to serve as a reference for utilizing these datasets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107932"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143027329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of meteorological and precursor emission factors on PM2.5 and O3 from 2019 to 2022: Insights from multiple perspectives","authors":"Decai Gong ,&nbsp;Ning Du ,&nbsp;Li Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaodong Deng ,&nbsp;Xianyun Zhang ,&nbsp;Longshan Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107933","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107933","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is one of the areas in China most severely affected by fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) pollution. Understanding the influence of meteorological conditions and precursor emissions on PM_2.5 and O₃ in the BTH region is crucial for effective air pollution control. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of PM_2.5 and O₃ in the BTH region from 2019 to 2022. We employed Geodetector, Generalized Additive Model (GAM), and Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to investigate the impacts of meteorological conditions and precursor emissions on PM_2.5 and O₃ from multiple perspectives: spatiotemporal differentiation, nonlinear responses, and causal relationships. This comprehensive exploration has enhanced our understanding of the interactions between these factors and revealed some intriguing phenomena.</div></div><div><h3><strong>Environmental implication</strong></h3><div>PM_2.5 and ozone are major atmospheric pollutants that pose significant threats to human health and the ecological environment, primarily influenced by precursor emissions and meteorological conditions. Clarifying the impact of these factors on PM_2.5 and ozone is crucial for providing scientific insights into air pollution control. However, most current studies have not comprehensively explored these relationships, lacking multidimensional perspectives. Therefore, we propose a multi-perspective analytical approach that thoroughly examines these relationships from three key perspectives: spatiotemporal variability, nonlinear responses, and causal relationships. This approach offers a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of the interactions between these factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107933"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143027328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characteristics of local recirculation affecting summer ozone in coastal areas of the Korean Peninsula","authors":"Jung-Woo Yoo ,&nbsp;Soon-Hwan Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107934","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107934","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the influence of local circulations, specifically stagnation and recirculation, on high ozone concentration events in Seoul during the summer (May–August) from 2016 to 2021. Local circulations were classified into Stagnation, Recirculation, and Ventilation types using the recirculation factor (RF), calculated as the ratio of net displacement distance (<span><math><mi>L</mi></math></span>) to actual displacement distance (<span><math><mi>S</mi></math></span>) based on wind observation data. Stagnation was the most frequently observed type, characterized by the highest daily maximum ozone concentrations and meteorological conditions unfavorable for dispersion, such as weak winds. During stagnation periods, limited air flow resulted in the accumulation of ozone within the urban area, with horizontal transport (HTRANS process) identified as a significant contributor to increased ozone concentrations near the surface. Additionally, nighttime ozone concentrations decreased due to active NO titration, accompanied by an increase in NO₂. In contrast, recirculation periods were marked by the presence of elevated ozone concentrations (∼0.07 ppm) at altitudes above 500 m during the early morning. This residual ozone, transported offshore by nighttime land breezes, was brought back inland by daytime sea breezes and subsequently transported downward to the surface through vertical transport (VTRANS process), contributing significantly to surface ozone levels. The differences in ozone formation mechanisms between stagnation and recirculation highlight the role of limited dispersion in stagnation and the combined effects of sea breeze and vertical transport in recirculation. These findings emphasize the importance of understanding local circulation patterns, particularly the interaction between land and sea breezes, in predicting and managing high ozone events during the summer. The study underscores the need for long-term climatological research on local circulations and their impact on urban air quality to inform effective air quality management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107934"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143027327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cloud processing dominates the vertical profiles of aerosols in marine air masses over the Great Barrier Reef","authors":"Ramon C. Braga ,&nbsp;Daniel Rosenfeld ,&nbsp;Diana Hernandez ,&nbsp;Chris Medcraft ,&nbsp;Avichay Efraim ,&nbsp;Manuel Moser ,&nbsp;Johannes Lucke ,&nbsp;Adrian Doss ,&nbsp;Daniel Harrison","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107928","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107928","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations greatly determine the vertical microphysical evolution and rain initiation of warm convective clouds. We investigated the vertical profile of aerosol particles large enough (diameter &gt; 60 nm) to act as CCN in marine air masses over the Great Barrier Reef. Such data were collected during an aircraft research campaign in February 2024. The results show a strong relationship between the microphysical processes measured in the cloud and the aerosol properties measured at the same altitude. The number concentration of aerosol particles decreases significantly above cloud bases due to CCN activation into cloud droplets. For heights above the in-cloud rain initiation level, the aerosol concentrations decrease further due to the scavenging of particles by drizzle and raindrops. The Hoppel minimum in particle size distributions is observed up to the altitude at which the coagulation process intensifies. Furthermore, a tail of larger aerosol particles was measured above the altitudes of rain initiation. These results suggest that the vertical profile of aerosols measured in marine air masses is dominated by cloud processing.</div></div><div><h3>Plain text summary</h3><div>Understanding the role of aerosol-cloud interactions is crucial information in accurately predicting the effects of climate change on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Characterizing the properties of aerosol particles found over the Reef is essential in determining their ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The evaporation of cloud droplets and raindrops represents an additional source that may influence the concentrations and sizes of aerosol. Here, we show that warm clouds dominate the vertical profiles of aerosol particles in the lower troposphere over the GBR. Our research shows that marine clouds work like a sink of aerosol particles found over the Reef. The cloud microphysical processes (activation of CCN into cloud droplets and the collision and coalescence processes) decrease the concentration of aerosol particles at the same altitude in the lower troposphere. Cloud processing develops the “Hoppel minima” or Hoppel minimum of the marine boundary layer aerosol size distributions as clouds evaporate. The Hoppel minimum is not observed in the particle size distributions above altitudes of intense coagulation processes. Above this level, the ultrafine particles dominate the aerosol concentrations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107928"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143027330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating sources and oxidation pathways of nitrate aerosols across altitudes: A year-long study using oxygen isotope anomaly and stable nitrogen isotopic composition from Canton Tower in South China","authors":"Yujing Wang ,&nbsp;Chenglei Pei ,&nbsp;Fobang Liu ,&nbsp;Fan Jiang ,&nbsp;Junwen Liu ,&nbsp;Fang Cao ,&nbsp;Yanlin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107930","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107930","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nitrate aerosol (NO₃⁻) has increasingly contributed to particular matter pollution in many regions worldwide, yet the relative contributions of key sources and oxidation pathways to NO₃⁻ remain poorly understood in South China. In this study, we present a year-long observation of the signatures for oxygen isotope anomaly (Δ¹⁷O) and stable nitrogen isotopic composition (δ¹⁵N) in NO₃⁻ collected at different heights (ground, 118 m, 488 m) from Canton Tower in South China covering the period from October 18, 2018 to August 10, 2019. Δ¹⁷O-δ¹⁵N-derived measurements showed that the main contributors to the oxidation pathways and source of NO₃⁻ in Guangzhou during the sampling campaign were NO₂ + OH (58.1 %) and coal combustion (34.3 %), respectively. Interestingly, there was an obvious vertical change for both the source and oxidation pathways of NO₃⁻ under different NO₃⁻ pollution levels. During periods of slight pollution, there was no significant difference in the oxidation pathways among the three heights, despite the ground-level NO₃⁻ concentration being much higher than at the other two altitudes. In contrast, during severe NO₃⁻ pollution episodes, the contribution of nocturnal chemistry (NO₃ + HC/N₂O₅ + Cl⁻ and N₂O₅ + H₂O) to NO₃⁻ formation reached up to 60.4 % at 118 m and 57.1 % at 488 m, which is 1.4 to 1.5 times higher than the contribution observed at ground level. Taken together, our year-long measurements for the signatures of Δ¹⁷O and δ¹⁵N in NO₃⁻ highlight the important role of nocturnal chemistry and coal combustion in driving NO₃⁻ pollution in the largest city of South China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107930"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143027332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Detection of the 2022 extreme drought over the Yangtze River basin using two satellite-gauge precipitation products","authors":"Linyong Wei ,&nbsp;Shanhu Jiang ,&nbsp;Liliang Ren ,&nbsp;Zulin Hua ,&nbsp;Linqi Zhang ,&nbsp;Zheng Duan","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107929","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107929","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In 2022, the Yangtze River Basin in China experienced an unprecedented extreme drought, induced by high temperatures and precipitation deficits. Accurate monitoring of such extreme drought events is vitally significant for disaster mitigation under global warming. This study evaluated the effectiveness of two satellite-based precipitation products: the latest Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final Run (IMERG-F) v07B and gauge-adjusted Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP-G) v8, using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to monitor the record-breaking drought. The evaluation was implemented based on the China Hydro-Meteorology precipitation (CHM_PRE) dataset with high-density stations. Results showed that the both satellite products presented satisfactory accuracy for the precipitation anomalies and monthly precipitation estimates. IMERG-F generally performed better than GSMaP-G, especially in the upstream region. Although the satellite-based SPEIs were constantly consistent with the CHM_PRE observations (correlation coefficient surpassing 0.9) in the midstream and downstream regions as the timescale increased, they exhibited greater spatial heterogeneity and temporal differentiation at longer timescales. IMERG-F demonstrated strong performance in detecting historical drought events, whereas it displayed worse reliability for the except 1-month drought estimates, as reflected by lower correlation and higher error metrics. During the 2022 extreme drought, IMERG-F-based SPEI had more reliable performance in identifying the stricken area and severity of meteorological drought. Conversely, GSMaP-G was more effective in characterizing the variability of summer agricultural drought and hydrological drought. These findings can provide valuable insights for the use of satellite remote sensing products in monitoring extreme drought events, offering potential to reduce drought risks and improve disaster management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107929"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143027333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Subseasonal prediction of weekly precipitation anomalies over Southern China during early summer based on predictability analysis and machine learning","authors":"Yang Lyu ,&nbsp;Xiefei Zhi ,&nbsp;Shoupeng Zhu ,&nbsp;Yi Fan ,&nbsp;Yan Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107927","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107927","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rainfall in southern China (SC) reaches its annual peak in early summer (May–June), which is often accompanied by the occurrence of rainstorm and flooding disasters. Reliable subseasonal precipitation forecasts play important roles in disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the four leading predictable patterns (accounts for 63.24 % of the total variance) of weekly precipitation anomalies (WPA) over Southern China (SC) during early summer and the corresponding signal sources in European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are analyzed. The first and second predictable patterns present uniform and meridional dipole pattern over SC, respectively, while the third and fourth predictable patterns feature with the tripole patterns. Further analysis indicates that the low-level anomalous anticyclone centered over the tropical western Pacific and the lower-level subtropical western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone are the key predictability sources for the first and second predictable patterns, respectively. Although ECMWF shows limited forecast skills in predicting the four leading predictable patterns after 2-week lead time, it can capture the associated large-scale circulation features to a large extent even up to 4-week lead time. Against this backdrop, we develop a dynamical-statistical model (DSM) using random forest to reconstruct these predictable patterns of WPA based on the associated large-scale features in ECMWF. The DSM can extend the forecast skills of WPA up to 4-week lead time over the majority area of SC and increase regional average TCC by ∼0.1 compared to the ensemble mean forecast from ECMWF for 3–4-week lead times. Further analysis indicates that the enhanced TCCs of DSM compared with ECMWF can be largely attributed to the enhancement in predicting the second predictable pattern. The proposed DSM is very promising in subseasonal precipitation forecasts and can also be applied to the routine forecast of other atmospheric and ocean phenomena in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107927"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143027348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Passive microwave-based diagnostics of medicanes over the period 2000–2021","authors":"Valentina Di Francesca ,&nbsp;Leo Pio D'Adderio ,&nbsp;Paolo Sanò ,&nbsp;Jean-François Rysman ,&nbsp;Daniele Casella ,&nbsp;Giulia Panegrossi","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107922","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107922","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Mediterranean Sea is a well-documented region of cyclogenesis where hundreds of cyclones of variable lifetime, intensity and structure form every year. Although they are smaller, weaker and shorter in duration compared to tropical or most of the extratropical cyclones, they are often associated with high impact weather phenomena, due to significant amount of precipitation, strong winds and storm surges, thus affecting the coastal areas in the Mediterranean basin. Recently, there has been a growing interest in Mediterranean cyclones which closely resemble actual tropical cyclones with spiraling rainbands around a calm, a mostly cloud-free “eye”, strong rotation winds around the center, and a warm core (WC). These cyclones are generally referred to as Tropical-Like Cyclones (TLCs) or MEDIterranean hurriCANES (medicanes). This study aims to analyse, through an observational, satellite-based approach, 23 medicanes occurred from 2000 to 2021 in order to carry out a comprehensive passive microwave (PMW)-based characterization of these cyclones. A novel methodology for detecting the “closed eye” feature has been designed and implemented. Moreover, a well-established methodology based on the 54–55 GHz temperature sounding channels is applied to all 23 cyclones to detect the WC and characterize its depth, intensity and symmetry. Finally, the high frequency channels (&gt; 89 GHz) are exploited to retrieve cloud top height and ice water path, and to detect deep moist convection, offering insights on the role of diabatic heating in the WC development. This study applies, for the first time, both known and newly-developed PMW-based techniques and tools over an extensive medicanes' satellite-based data record in order to unveil the thermodynamic and microphysical processes which fuel the WC and to identify the cyclones which undergo a tropical-transition, (i.e., with a WC mainly driven by diabatic processes). In addition, this study evidences how PMW radiometry can contribute to address open questions on the processes that drive medicanes development and evolution, and offer useful insights into the potential classification of these complex systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"316 ","pages":"Article 107922"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143027331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}