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A Coupled SFM-ASCRIBE Model To Investigate the Influence of Emotions and Collective Behavior in Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Crowds 研究同质和异质人群中情绪和集体行为影响的 SFM-ASCRIBE 耦合模型
Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI: 10.17815/cd.2024.147
Yassine Lamrhary, Aissam Jebrane, Pierre Argoul, A. Boukamel, A. Hamdaoui
The understanding of crowd behavior dynamics holds immense significance in ensuring public safety across a range of situations, including emergency evacuations and large-scale events. Our research focuses on two primary objectives: investigating the impact of emotions on crowd movement and gaining valuable insights into collective behavior within crowds. To achieve this, we present a coupled model, incorporating an enhanced ASCRIBE model with an agent displacement model. We introduce heterogeneity into our model by incorporating specific mobility laws for different categories of panicked crowds, considering the influence of emotions on both speed and direction. Through numerical simulations, we analyze the model's parameters, observe the behavior of uniform crowds, and explore the collective dynamics within diverse crowds. By conducting comprehensive simulations and analyses, the findings from this study can contribute to the development of more effective crowd management strategies and emergency evacuation protocols.
了解人群行为动态对确保紧急疏散和大型活动等各种情况下的公共安全具有重要意义。我们的研究侧重于两个主要目标:研究情绪对人群移动的影响,以及获得对人群中集体行为的宝贵见解。为此,我们提出了一个耦合模型,将增强型 ASCRIBE 模型与代理位移模型相结合。考虑到情绪对速度和方向的影响,我们为不同类别的恐慌人群引入了特定的移动规律,从而在模型中引入了异质性。通过数值模拟,我们分析了模型的参数,观察了均匀人群的行为,并探索了不同人群的集体动态。通过进行全面的模拟和分析,本研究的结果将有助于制定更有效的人群管理策略和紧急疏散协议。
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引用次数: 0
A Rumor has Spread like Wildfire? - Empirical Investigation of Information Propagation in Waiting Crowds 谣言如野火般蔓延?- 等待人群中信息传播的实证调查
Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI: 10.17815/cd.2024.146
Helena Lügering, A. Sieben
Information propagation in crowds tends to have a negative image. A common narrative is that information about a danger spreads like wildfire and leads to panic. In contrast, using person-to-person information sharing in crowd management as a complement to other communication channels has been discussed less. Even though previous research indicated that information does not propagate easily in crowds, more detailed research is lacking. In this study, two different experiments are presented to provide initial insights. In the main experiment, five groups of 33-41 participants took part in a total of 35 runs. In each run, a person in a waiting group was given a message or command that had to be passed on, whereby the knowledge about the task, the relevance of the message and the input side were varied. In the second experiment, this procedure was repeated with two larger groups of participants (n = 91 and n = 101). Overall, results showed that information propagated better when people were properly briefed on their task and have performed it several times. There was also a tendency for a higher density to foster faster propagation and for participants to rely on the spoken word rather than seeing a behavior performed. Yet, some participants did not receive the information at all or did not pass it on. In general, the direction of communication (e.g., back to front or left to right) was not always the same but information was usually passed along in a similar direction from where it came.
人群中的信息传播往往具有负面形象。一种常见的说法是,有关危险的信息会像野火一样蔓延,导致恐慌。与此相反,在人群管理中使用人与人之间的信息共享作为其他沟通渠道的补充却较少被讨论。尽管以往的研究表明,信息在人群中不易传播,但仍缺乏更详细的研究。本研究通过两个不同的实验提供了初步见解。在主要实验中,五组 33-41 名参与者参加了总共 35 次跑步。在每次运行中,等待组中的一个人都会收到一条必须传递的信息或命令,而任务的相关知识、信息的相关性和输入方都是不同的。在第二次实验中,有两组更大的参与者(n = 91 和 n = 101)重复了这一过程。总之,实验结果表明,如果人们对自己的任务有适当的了解,并且已经执行过多次任务,那么信息传播的效果会更好。还有一种趋势是,密度越高,传播速度越快,而且参与者更依赖于口头语言,而不是亲眼目睹行为的实施。然而,也有一些参与者根本没有收到信息或没有将信息传递出去。一般来说,传播的方向(如从后到前或从左到右)并不总是相同的,但信息通常会以相似的方向传递。
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引用次数: 0
Signalized and Unsignalized Road Traffic Intersection Models: A Comprehensive Benchmark Analysis 信号灯和非信号灯道路交通交叉口模型:综合基准分析
Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.17815/cd.2023.144
Ibrahima Ba, A. Tordeux
Road traffic flow models allow the development and testing of intelligent transportation solutions. Macroscopic intersection models are especially relevant for the simulation of large traffic networks. In this article, we study four first-order signalized and unsignalized intersection models. The two unsignalized approaches are the first-in-first-out (FIFO) model (roundabout-type intersection) and an optimal non-FIFO model (highway-type intersection). The optimal control operates upstream for the first signalized intersection model. It occurs downstream for the second signalized model. All four models satisfy the expected physical constraints of vehicle conservation, traffic demand, and assignment. The models are minimal and allow a comprehensible analysis of the results. We determine mathematical relationships between the intersection models and empirically analyze the performances using Monte Carlo simulations. The numerical simulations assume random demand, supply, and assignment. Besides average performances, the approach accounts for the flow ranges of variation. A benchmark analysis compares the intersection models. We observe that the optimal signalized intersection models overcome the performances of the FIFO model in congested states. They may even reach the performances of the idealistic non-FIFO model. Further applications for the four intersection models are discussed.
道路交通流模型有助于开发和测试智能交通解决方案。宏观交叉口模型对于大型交通网络的模拟尤为重要。本文研究了四种一阶信号灯和非信号灯交叉口模型。两个无信号交叉口模型分别是先进先出(FIFO)模型(迂回型交叉口)和非先进先出优化模型(高速公路型交叉口)。在第一个信号灯路口模型中,优化控制在上游运行。第二个信号灯路口模型的最优控制在下游进行。所有四个模型都满足车辆保护、交通需求和分配等预期物理约束条件。这些模型都是最小的,可以对结果进行可理解的分析。我们确定了交叉口模型之间的数学关系,并通过蒙特卡罗模拟对其性能进行了经验分析。数值模拟假设需求、供应和分配是随机的。除了平均性能,该方法还考虑了流量的变化范围。基准分析对交叉口模型进行了比较。我们发现,最佳信号交叉口模型在拥堵状态下的性能优于先进先出模型。它们甚至可以达到理想化的非先进先出模型的性能。我们还讨论了四种交叉口模型的进一步应用。
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引用次数: 0
How to Navigate Crowd Crushes History? A Compilation of Six Existing Sources 如何浏览挤压历史?六种现有资料的汇编
Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.17815/cd.2023.145
Capucine-Marin Dubroca-Voisin
We use six existing sources about past crowd crushes and accident to build a merged data base. By doing so, we show that every source has a partial view of the crowd crushes, with coverage rates between 14% and 59% of our merged data base. Each of the sources contains crowd crushes that are cited by none of the other sources.We then may have a very partial view of past crowd crushes. We examine several biases that can explain under reporting of crowd crushes, notably the less recent ones and the smaller.This partial view affects any statistical study that we can do on the evolution of crowd crushes. However, our data analysis suggests that the number of crowd crushes par capita is not steadily increasing. Crowd crushes may not be a growing tendency in regard to global population.Our analysis suggests it is necessary to continue studying crowd crushes, both globally and in-depth, to gain a more global view of their reasons and their tendencies. We propose to use collaborative projects such as Wikidata to do so.
我们利用现有的六个关于过去挤兑事件和意外事件的资料来源,建立了一个合并数据库。通过这种方法,我们发现每个来源对挤兑事件的看法都是片面的,其覆盖率在我们合并数据库的 14% 到 59% 之间。每个来源都包含其他来源都没有引用的挤压事件。我们研究了几种偏差,这些偏差可以解释对挤兑事件的报道不足,尤其是对较新的挤兑事件和较小的挤兑事件的报道不足。然而,我们的数据分析表明,人均人群拥挤次数并没有稳步增长。我们的分析表明,有必要继续在全球范围内深入研究 "人群挤压 "现象,以便更全面地了解其原因和趋势。我们建议利用维基数据等合作项目来开展这项工作。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the Dynamic Relationship between Pushing Behavior and Crowd Dynamics 推挤行为与人群动力学之间的动态关系探讨
Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.17815/cd.2023.143
Ezel Uesten, Jette Schumann, Anna Sieben
Crowds, subjects of considerable complexity, have been extensively studied both as homogeneous entities and as collective sums of individual movements in various studies. However, crowd models, being grounded in physics, are limited in terms of incorporating psychological perspectives on individual behavior. Building upon the premise that crowd behavior is heterogeneous and dynamic, particularly in bottleneck scenarios, this study aims to explore the nuances of forward motion. Adopting the category system proposed by Lügering et al. (2022) (consisting the following categories: strong pushing, mild pushing, just walking, falling behind), this paper investigates the circumstances and locations where pushing or non-pushing behaviors arise, intensify, or cease within crowds approaching bottlenecks. The study utilized 14 video materials obtained from previous laboratory pedestrian experiments to examine the spatial characteristics of forward motion and pushing behavior in relation to corridor widths and varied motivational instructions. Two trained raters independently annotated these videos, achieving satisfactory inter-rater agreement (KALPHA = .65) , and a joint dataset was then created for each video. These videos consisted both high (7 videos) and low (7 videos) motivation scenarios. The importance of corridor width was also considered: four videos featured a 5.6m width, another four featured a 4.5m width, and the remaining videos displayed widths of 3.4m, 2.3m, and 1.2m twice. Our findings suggest a tendency for increased pushing behavior or an increase in the categories as individuals approach the bottleneck, regardless of the width of the corridor or the motivational instruction. Furthermore, non-pushing behaviors were predominantly observed in the areas farther away from the bottleneck. A noticeable trend was observed in high motivation scenarios, which generally exhibited more instances of pushing behavior. The effect of corridor width indicated that, in certain cases, pedestrians who push in wider corridors experience faster access to the bottleneck. However, this effect is less significant in narrower widths.
群体是一个相当复杂的主题,在各种研究中被广泛研究,既作为同质实体,也作为个体运动的集体总和。然而,以物理学为基础的群体模型在结合个体行为的心理学观点方面是有限的。基于人群行为是异构和动态的前提,特别是在瓶颈场景下,本研究旨在探索向前运动的细微差别。本文采用l尔格林等人(2022)提出的类别系统(包括强推、轻推、走路、落后),研究接近瓶颈的人群中推或不推行为产生、加剧或停止的情况和位置。本研究利用从先前的实验室行人实验中获得的14个视频材料来研究与走廊宽度和不同动机指示相关的向前运动和推动行为的空间特征。两个训练有素的评分员独立地对这些视频进行注释,达到了令人满意的评分员之间的一致性(KALPHA = .65),然后为每个视频创建一个联合数据集。这些视频包括高动机场景(7个视频)和低动机场景(7个视频)。走廊宽度的重要性也被考虑在内:4个视频的宽度为5.6m,另外4个视频的宽度为4.5m,其余视频的宽度分别为3.4m、2.3m和1.2m。我们的研究结果表明,当个体接近瓶颈时,无论走廊的宽度或激励指示如何,推行为都有增加或类别增加的趋势。此外,非推挤行为主要发生在远离瓶颈的区域。一个明显的趋势是在高动机情景中观察到的,通常表现出更多的推动行为。走廊宽度的影响表明,在某些情况下,在更宽的走廊上推进的行人更快地到达瓶颈。然而,这种效应在较窄的宽度中不太显著。
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引用次数: 2
How a Game Theoretic Approach Can Minimize the Cost of Train Passenger Services: An Intermodal Competition between Rail and Road Transport 博弈论方法如何使火车客运服务成本最小化:铁路和公路运输的多式联运竞争
Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.17815/cd.2023.142
Tryson Yangailo
Game theory models provide very powerful tools for evaluating strategies that are beneficial to both rail and road operators competing for passengers on parallel routes. This study examines how game theory can help rail operators who are incurring losses on passenger transport to identify strategies that can minimise costs, using the methodology of dual linear programming to analyse strategies. In identifying the best strategies for minimising costs for the railway operator, the best strategies for maximising profits for the road operators are also identified. The game model is set up between two passenger transport operators (rail and road) and is based on the income earned by the road operators from passengers. This study illustrates the following: how the strategies of the two competitors (rail and road) are determined; the formation of the payoff matrix and the presentation of the mathematical problem for the two competitors; and the results and verification of the best strategies for both competitors. The Leonid Hurwicz criterion was used to verify the optimal strategies.
博弈论模型为评估策略提供了非常强大的工具,这些策略对铁路和公路运营商在平行路线上争夺乘客都有利。这项研究考察了博弈论如何帮助在客运方面遭受损失的铁路运营商确定可以最大限度地降低成本的策略,并使用双线性规划方法来分析策略。在确定铁路运营商成本最小化的最佳策略时,还确定了道路运营商利润最大化的最佳策略。博弈模型是在两个客运运营商(铁路和公路)之间建立的,基于公路运营商从乘客那里获得的收入。本研究说明了以下几个方面:两个竞争对手(铁路和公路)的战略是如何确定的;两个竞争对手的报酬矩阵的形成和数学问题的表示;以及对两个竞争对手的最佳策略的结果和验证。Leonid-Hurwicz准则用于验证最优策略。
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引用次数: 0
Pedestrian Crowd Management Experiments: A Data Guidance Paper 行人人群管理实验:数据指导文件
Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI: 10.17815/cd.2023.141
Ann Katrin Boomers, M. Boltes, Juliane Adrian, Mira Beermann, M. Chraibi, S. Feldmann, F. Fiedrich, Niklas Frings, Arne Graf, Alica Kandler, Deniz Kilic, Krisztina Konya, M. Küpper, Andreas Lotter, Helena Lügering, Francesca Müller, Sarah Paetzke, Anna-Katharina Raytarowski, Olga Sablik, Tobias Schrödter, A. Seyfried, A. Sieben, Ezel Üsten
Understanding pedestrian dynamics and the interaction of pedestrians with their environment is crucial to the safe and comfortable design of pedestrian facilities. Experiments offer the opportunity to explore the influence of individual factors. In the context of the project CroMa (Crowd Management in transport infrastructures), experiments were conducted with about 1000 participants to test various physical and social psychological hypotheses focusing on people's behaviour at railway stations and crowd management measures. The following experiments were performed: i) Train Platform Experiment, ii) Crowd Management Experiment, iii) Single-File Experiment, iv) Personal Space Experiment, v) Boarding and Alighting Experiment, vi) Bottleneck Experiment and vii) Tiny Box Experiment. This paper describes the basic planning and implementation steps, outlines all experiments with parameters, geometries, applied sensor technologies and pre- and post-processing steps. All data can be found in the pedestrian dynamics data archive.
了解行人动态和行人与环境的相互作用对于设计安全舒适的步行设施至关重要。实验为探索个体因素的影响提供了机会。在CroMa(交通基础设施中的人群管理)项目的背景下,对大约1000名参与者进行了实验,以测试人们在火车站的行为和人群管理措施的各种生理和社会心理假设。实验包括:1)列车站台实验,2)人群管理实验,3)单队列实验,4)个人空间实验,5)上下车实验,6)瓶颈实验,7)小盒子实验。本文描述了基本的计划和实施步骤,概述了所有实验的参数,几何形状,应用的传感器技术和前后处理步骤。所有数据都可以在行人动态数据档案中找到。
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引用次数: 5
Towards a Reference Database for Pedestrian Destination Choice Model Development 建立行人目的地选择模型的参考数据库
Pub Date : 2023-01-12 DOI: 10.17815/cd.2022.140
C. King, N. Bode
The move towards publishing research data openly has led to the formation of reference databases in many fields. The benefits of such resources are numerous, particularly in the development of models. While these exist in research on other aspects of pedestrian behaviour, no reference database is available for modelling pedestrian destination choice, the process by which pedestrians choose where they wish to visit next. This work seeks to construct such a database from the literature. The resulting data obtained are described and potential ways in which they could be used to calibrate a simple pedestrian destination choice model are presented. It contains four datasets that include destination choices for hundreds of pedestrians in settings ranging from university campuses and music festivals to highly structured stated preference surveys. A case study using one of these datasets to calibrate a simple pedestrian destination choice model is provided. These efforts highlight some general issues from creating and using reference data openly. Discussing these issues will hopefully guide the development of reference data and accelerate the development of accurate pedestrian destination choice models that can be applied generally.
公开发表研究数据的趋势导致了许多领域参考数据库的形成。这些资源的好处是很多的,特别是在模型的开发中。虽然这些数据存在于行人行为的其他方面的研究中,但没有可用的参考数据库来模拟行人目的地选择,即行人选择下一步要去哪里的过程。这项工作试图从文献中构建这样一个数据库。本文描述了获得的结果数据,并提出了用于校准简单行人目的地选择模型的潜在方法。它包含四个数据集,其中包括数百名行人的目的地选择,从大学校园和音乐节到高度结构化的陈述偏好调查。提供了一个案例研究,使用这些数据集之一来校准一个简单的行人目的地选择模型。这些努力突出了公开创建和使用参考数据的一些一般问题。通过对这些问题的探讨,有望指导参考数据的开发,并加快可广泛应用的准确行人目的地选择模型的开发。
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引用次数: 0
Pushing and Non-pushing Forward Motion in Crowds: A Systematic Psychological Observation Method for Rating Individual Behavior in Pedestrian Dynamics 人群中的推挤和非推挤运动:行人动力学中评价个体行为的系统心理观察方法
Pub Date : 2022-08-05 DOI: 10.17815/cd.2022.138
Ezel Üsten, Helena Lügering, A. Sieben
Pushing behavior impairs people’s sense of well-being in a crowd and represents a significant safety risk. There are nevertheless still a lot of unanswered questions about who behaves how in a crowded situation, and when, where, and why pushing behavior occurs. Beginning from the supposition that a crowd is not thoroughly homogenous and that behavior can change over time, we developed a method to observe and rate forward motion. Based on the guidelines of quantitative content analysis, we came up with four categories: (1) falling behind, (2) just walking, (3) mild pushing, and (4) strong pushing. These categories allow for the classification of the behavior of any person at any time in a video, and thereby the method allows for a comprehensive systematization of individuals’ actions alongside temporal crowd dynamics. The application of this method involves videos of moving crowds including trajectories. The initial results show a very good inter-coder reliability between two trained raters demonstrating the general suitability of the system to describe forward motion in crowds systematically and quantify it for further analysis. In this way, pushing behavior can be better understood and, prospectively, risks better identified. This article offers a comprehensive presentation of this method of observation.
推搡行为会损害人们在人群中的幸福感,并代表着重大的安全风险。然而,关于谁在拥挤的情况下表现如何,以及何时、何地以及为什么会发生推搡行为,仍然有很多问题没有得到回答。从假设人群不是完全同质的,行为可以随着时间的推移而变化开始,我们开发了一种观察和评价向前运动的方法。基于定量内容分析的指导原则,我们得出了四类:(1)落后,(2)只是走路,(3)轻度推搡,和(4)强烈推搡。这些类别允许对视频中任何人在任何时间的行为进行分类,因此该方法允许对个人的行为与时间人群动态进行全面的系统化。该方法的应用涉及移动人群的视频,包括轨迹。初步结果表明,两个经过训练的评分者之间的编码器间可靠性非常好,这表明该系统系统系统地描述人群中的前向运动并对其进行量化以供进一步分析的普遍适用性。通过这种方式,可以更好地理解推动行为,并从前瞻性角度更好地识别风险。这篇文章全面介绍了这种观察方法。
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引用次数: 8
Effects of Driving Style on Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions 驾驶方式对能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的影响
Pub Date : 2022-05-11 DOI: 10.17815/cd.2022.137
Susana Carreón-Sierra, A. Salcido
The tractive force developed by energy consumption (EC) in a car engine produces its acceleration and sustains the motion against velocity dependent resistance forces. In internal combustion engines, fuel burning entails pollutant emissions (PE) released into the atmosphere. In vehicular traffic, EC and PE depend on the driving style. This paper assumed that the transition rules in a traffic cellular automata (TCA) represent a driving style, and its effect on EC and PE in TCA is studied. Extending empirical relationships, we proposed models to estimate EC and PE in TCA from the velocity and acceleration distributions, which we obtained by computer simulations for three well-known TCA. The Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) and Fukui-Ishibashi (FI) models, and a variant (NS+FI) defined by combining the NS and FI rules, were considered. The FI driving style revealed EC and CO2 emission rates dependent on the stochastic delay (p) only for low vehicular densities. We also detected that the larger EC and CO2 emission rates were 45.4 kW and 26.7 g/s with no dependence on p. With NS and NS+FI driving styles, the larger energy consumption and CO2 emission rates occurred for small stochastic delays, 18.4 kW and 6.6 g/s and 61.1kW and 30.2 g/s for p = 0.2. On average, for NS, FI, and NS+FI models (p = 0.2), we obtained energy consumptions of 1.88, 2.60, and 2.76 MJ/km, fuel consumptions of 0.08, 0.12, and 0.13 L/km, and CO2 emissions of 0.158, 0.460, and 0.562 kgCO2/km. Our results agree with those (3.37 MJ/km and 0.235 kgCO2/km) of petrol combustion car engines at 10 km/L. This work may help in designing flow and driving style scenarios to optimize vehicular traffic EC and reduce PE.
汽车发动机中由能量消耗(EC)产生的牵引力产生加速度,并抵抗与速度相关的阻力来维持运动。在内燃机中,燃料燃烧导致污染物排放(PE)释放到大气中。在车辆交通中,EC和PE取决于驾驶风格。本文假设交通元胞自动机(TCA)中的转换规则代表一种驾驶风格,并研究了它对TCA中EC和PE的影响。扩展经验关系,我们提出了根据速度和加速度分布估计TCA中EC和PE的模型,这是我们通过对三种著名TCA的计算机模拟获得的。考虑了Nagel-Schreckenberg(NS)和Fukui-Ishibashi(FI)模型,以及通过结合NS和FI规则定义的变体(NS+FI)。FI驾驶方式显示,EC和CO2排放率仅在低车辆密度时取决于随机延迟(p)。我们还检测到,较大的EC和CO2排放率分别为45.4 kW和26.7 g/s,与p无关。对于NS和NS+FI驾驶方式,较小的随机延迟出现较大的能耗和CO2排放速率,当p=0.2时,分别为18.4 kW和6.6 g/s以及61.1 kW和30.2 g/s。平均而言,对于NS、FI和NS+FI模型(p=0.2),我们获得的能耗分别为1.88、2.60和2.76 MJ/km,燃油消耗分别为0.08、0.12和0.13 L/km,二氧化碳排放分别为0.158、0.460和0.562 kgCO2/km。我们的结果与汽油发动机在10km/h下的结果(3.37MJ/km和0.235kgCO2/km)一致。这项工作可能有助于设计流量和驾驶方式场景,以优化车辆交通EC并减少PE。
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引用次数: 0
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Collective dynamics
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