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Challenging the hegemon: great power motives for Russia’s struggle with the US over Ukraine 挑战霸权:俄罗斯与美国在乌克兰问题上争斗的大国动机
Pub Date : 2023-02-22 DOI: 10.46272/2409-3416-2022-10-4-44-53
M. Suchkov
Theconflict in Ukraine unfolds at least at three levels– local, international and global. At the same time, the conflict dynamics at all three levels are interconnected, while the interests of external stakeholders directly influence the behavior of local players and determine the prospects for the outcome of the conflict. This article presents Russian assessments of the logic of American policy on the European and Ukrainian tracks in the context of the US attempts to retain the initiative and preserve dominance in international affairs.
乌克兰的冲突至少在三个层面展开——地方、国际和全球。与此同时,所有三个层面的冲突动态是相互关联的,而外部利益相关者的利益直接影响当地参与者的行为并决定冲突结果的前景。本文介绍了俄罗斯对美国在欧洲和乌克兰轨道上的政策逻辑的评估,背景是美国试图在国际事务中保留主动权和主导地位。
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引用次数: 0
The crisis in Ukraine and Russia’s global strategy 乌克兰危机与俄罗斯的全球战略
A. Bezrukov
When studying the conflict unfolding in Ukraine, two axes of confrontation are most often considered: Russia versus Ukraine and Russia versus the West. The author is convinced that such division is a false dyad. Ukraine is a kind of battering ram, which has been prepared with regard to the specific class organization, as well as militarily. Through Ukraine, the West is trying to solve its main foreign policy objective, i.e. to eliminate Russia as an adversary and then, before the momentum is lost, to challenge China as well. Nevertheless, the West is weakening and is in a phase where it is starting to lose its global position. Thus, for the West, which is coming to realize that it is on the verge of a political and economic crisis, the war in Ukraine is the last chance to deal with two key issues: to finish off its main adversaries by military and political means and at the same time, indirectly, to avoid a possible war.
在研究乌克兰正在展开的冲突时,人们最常考虑的是两个对抗轴:俄罗斯与乌克兰,以及俄罗斯与西方。作者确信这样的划分是一个假的二分法。乌克兰是一种攻城锤,无论是在具体的阶级组织上,还是在军事上,都已经准备好了。通过乌克兰,西方正试图实现其主要的外交政策目标,即消灭俄罗斯这个对手,然后在势头丧失之前,也向中国发起挑战。然而,西方正在削弱,并且正处于开始失去其全球地位的阶段。因此,对于逐渐意识到自己正处于政治和经济危机边缘的西方来说,乌克兰战争是解决两个关键问题的最后机会:通过军事和政治手段消灭其主要对手,同时间接避免可能发生的战争。
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引用次数: 0
Sanctions against Russia: a new financial and economic reality? 对俄制裁:新的金融和经济现实?
Pub Date : 2023-02-22 DOI: 10.46272/2409-3416-2022-10-4-65-76
I. Timofeev
Every conflict sooner or later ends in peace. This is the conventional wisdom that can often be heard from those who, in the current “tsunami” of sanctions and confrontation with the West, try to find hope for a return to “normality”. For the most part, sanctions against Russia will not be lifted even if there is a ceasefire in Ukraine and the conflict is resolved. There will be no return to “pre-February normality”. Instead of remembering the lost past, the focus will have to be on creating a new future in which sanctions imposed by the West will remain a constant variable.
每一次冲突迟早都会以和平告终。这是在当前制裁和与西方对抗的“海啸”中,那些试图寻找回归“正常”希望的人经常会听到的传统智慧。在很大程度上,即使乌克兰停火,冲突得到解决,对俄罗斯的制裁也不会解除。不会回到“2月前的正常状态”。与其记住失去的过去,不如把重点放在创造一个新的未来上,在这个未来中,西方施加的制裁将仍然是一个不变的变量。
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引用次数: 0
US and NATO strategy in Ukraine: scenarios for relations with Russia 美国和北约在乌克兰的战略:与俄罗斯关系的情景
Pub Date : 2023-02-22 DOI: 10.46272/2409-3416-2022-10-4-35-43
I. Safranchuk
This article examines scenarios for the development of relations between certain members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia. The author attempts to assess the bloc’s internal cohesion in terms of relations with Russia and to identify what timelines key NATO member states have defined as to their foreign policy planning in the current crisis.
本文探讨了北大西洋公约组织某些成员国与俄罗斯之间关系发展的设想。作者试图从与俄罗斯关系的角度来评估该集团的内部凝聚力,并确定北约主要成员国在当前危机中制定外交政策规划的时间表。
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引用次数: 0
Operation Toba in Northeast Argentina: the spread of the State of Terror (1975–1977) 阿根廷东北部的多巴行动:恐怖状态的蔓延(1975-1977)
Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI: 10.46272/2409-3416-2022-10-3-70-87
Jussaramar da Silva
The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how Argentine experience of internal repression was passed on to Paraguay as a result of the meetings between its intelligence services. The meetings were carried out by the military in the 1970s, aiming at joint operations of political persecution and extermination of the opponents of the dictatorships that prevailed in these two countries. The author analyzes documentation transmitted during the meeting called IIda Regional Bilateral Meeting of Intelligence between Paraguay and Argentina in 1978. Documentation reports to the Paraguayan military the strategies and tactics of war developed by the Argentine armed forces in the so-called Operation Toba. The importance of discussing Operation Toba is to demonstrate the similarity of the repressions that took place in other countries of the Southern Cone. The techniques and tactics used illustrate that such massacres have repressive synchrony and are consistent with a single internationalized process of repression. Although the repression called Operation Toba was developed only by the Argentine State, it demonstrates an international chain of repression, as well as the similarity in the modus operandi of the precepts of the widespread Counter-Revolutionary War Doctrine, developed by the French during the fighting in Indochina and Algeria in the 1950s.
本文的目的是要说明阿根廷内部镇压的经验是如何通过两国情报部门之间的会晤而传递给巴拉圭的。这些会议是军方在1970年代举行的,目的是联合行动,对在这两个国家盛行的独裁统治的反对者进行政治迫害和消灭。作者分析了1978年巴拉圭和阿根廷之间的IIda区域双边情报会议期间传递的文件。文件向巴拉圭军方报告了阿根廷武装部队在所谓的多巴行动中制定的战争战略和战术。讨论多巴行动的重要性在于表明在南锥体其他国家发生的镇压的相似之处。所使用的技术和战术表明,这种屠杀具有镇压同步性,并与单一的国际化镇压过程相一致。
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引用次数: 0
Trajectories, bifurcations and hysteresis in the Argentine economic cycle: the economic policy of Sudden Stops 阿根廷经济周期的轨迹、分岔和滞后:突然停止的经济政策
Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI: 10.46272/2409-3416-2022-10-3-169-185
Pablo Schiaffi
This paper analyzes the evolution of the Argentine gross domestic product between 1875-2010. It intends to analyze its trajectory over time according to the periods of greater or lesser economic integration that the country experienced. An explanation of the poor performance that occurs between 1970-2010 (second globalization) is presented and compared with the period 1885-1914 (first globalization). This paper presents a series of graphic arguments that will allow us to analyze the evolution of the Argentine gross product from 1885 to 2010. It is not intended to explain or investigate the specific causes or reasons for the prosperity or depression that Argentina experienced in each of its episodes. Instead, an attempt is made to present longterm stylized facts seeking to compare moments of opening versus those of a closed economy over which the country oscillated in order to analyze long-term growth and economic volatility.
本文分析了1875-2010年间阿根廷国内生产总值的演变。它打算根据该国所经历的或大或小的经济一体化时期来分析其随时间的轨迹。对1970-2010年(第二次全球化)期间的不良表现进行了解释,并与1885-1914年(第一次全球化)期间进行了比较。本文提出了一系列图形论证,使我们能够分析1885年至2010年阿根廷国内生产总值的演变。本文不打算解释或调查阿根廷在其每一时期所经历的繁荣或萧条的具体原因或原因。相反,为了分析长期增长和经济波动,作者试图呈现长期程式化的事实,试图比较开放与封闭经济的时刻。
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引用次数: 0
The Argentine political and economic paradox 阿根廷的政治和经济悖论
Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI: 10.46272/2409-3416-2022-10-3-152-168
J. M. Abal Medina, Andrea Ariza
Unlike most Latin American nations, Argentina experienced a situation of partisan political stability in a context of consistently deteriorating macroeconomic conditions. Other countries in the region, meanwhile, have suffered profound crises and political transformations with notable stability in macroeconomic indicators. That is why the article investigates the causes of this paradox experienced by Argentina and aims to identify the causes of this institutional political stability that is maintained despite the macroeconomic disorder, the strong polarization and the deterioration of the social situation. To carry out this task, the article details the situation of the countries of the region based on the study of various economic indicators and then describes the political and economic situation in Argentina.
与大多数拉丁美洲国家不同,阿根廷在宏观经济状况持续恶化的背景下经历了党派政治稳定的局面。与此同时,该地区其他国家遭受了深刻的危机和政治变革,宏观经济指标明显稳定。这就是为什么本文调查了阿根廷所经历的这种矛盾的原因,并旨在确定尽管宏观经济混乱,强烈的两极分化和社会局势恶化,但仍保持这种体制政治稳定的原因。为了完成这一任务,本文在研究各种经济指标的基础上,详细介绍了该地区各国的情况,然后描述了阿根廷的政治和经济形势。
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引用次数: 0
Argentina vs Great Britain: the trajectory of one conflict 阿根廷vs英国:一场冲突的轨迹
Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI: 10.46272/2409-3416-2022-10-3-123-135
N. Yakovleva
40 years ago, on April 2, 1982, Argentina made a failed attempt by military means to establish sovereignty over the archipelago in the South Atlantic, which was under the jurisdiction of Great Britain. The war was the result of a two-century dispute over the ownership of the islands. Upon joining the UN in 1945, Buenos Aires loudly announced its claims to the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) and began to seek from the international community to recognize its claims as legitimate. Since then, the problem has been a red thread through the history of the country. The policy of the Argentine authorities on the issue of disputed territories developed with a pendulum dynamic. Periods of de-escalation of the conflict and the development of cooperation with Great Britain, coupled with a friendly attitude towards the islanders, were replaced by phases of the dominance of irreconcilable discourse with a strong demand for the “termination of the colonization policy” by the British authorities. Relations between Argentina and Great Britain after the end of hostilities can be divided into several stages. Regardless of the direction of the course of the next government, the issue of sovereignty over disputed territories has never been removed from the agenda. The Argentine side certainly used the “Malvinas question” as an instrument of domestic policy. Currently, the conflict is in a latent phase with no prospect of an early resolution.
40年前,1982年4月2日,阿根廷试图通过军事手段对南大西洋群岛建立主权,但失败了,该群岛当时在大不列颠的管辖之下。这场战争是两个世纪以来对这些岛屿所有权的争议的结果。1945年加入联合国后,布宜诺斯艾利斯大声宣布对福克兰群岛(马尔维纳斯)的主权要求,并开始寻求国际社会承认其主权要求的合法性。从那时起,这个问题就成了这个国家历史上的一条红线。阿根廷当局在有争议领土问题上的政策像钟摆一样动态发展。冲突降级和与大不列颠发展合作以及对岛民采取友好态度的时期,被强烈要求英国当局“终止殖民政策”的不可调和的言论占主导地位的阶段所取代。阿根廷和英国在战争结束后的关系可以分为几个阶段。无论下届政府的方向如何,争议领土的主权问题从未从议程中移除。阿根廷方面当然利用“马尔维纳斯问题”作为其国内政策的工具。目前,冲突处于潜伏阶段,没有早日解决的希望。
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引用次数: 0
Russia’s foreign economic relations with major Latin American partners in the context of anti-Russian sanctions 在反俄制裁背景下,俄罗斯与拉美主要伙伴的对外经济关系
Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI: 10.46272/2409-3416-2022-10-3-109-122
V. X. M. Gonzalez, Reyza N. Toro Bellott
The article examines key vectors of the development of Russia’s foreign economic relations with its largest trading partners in Latin America in the context of anti-Russian sanctions. The author analyzes peculiarities of Russia’s foreign trade and investment cooperation with Brazil, Ecuador, Argentina, Mexico and Chile. Factors hindering the development of this cooperation are economic instability in the world, anti-Russian sanctions, weak development of logistics networks, lack of free trade agreements, the presence of high custom duties on Russian products in the Latin American market, high competition on part of the United States and China, insufficient interest of Russian business in economic cooperation with the countries of the region over the past decades. It is shown that the largest increase in Russia’s trade turnover with the countries under consideration was recorded with Mexico, an increase in Russian exports was observed in Argentina, and imports - from Mexico. Chile demonstrated the worst indicators in the sphere of foreign trade relations among the countries under consideration. It is concluded that Russia’s largest Latin American partners have serious prospects for expanding their presence on the Russian market in the face of anti-Russian sanctions. Two key factors can be considered favorable for further development of Russia - Latin America trade cooperation. The first one is the orientation of the foreign policy of many countries in the region to other economic partners in order to minimize dependence on the United States. The second one is that Russia is shifting its vectors of economic cooperation from unfriendly countries to other countries, including Latin American states. It is concluded that investment cooperation between the countries has certain prospects for development, especially in the field of oil and gas exploration, energy and railway construction.
本文探讨了在反俄制裁背景下,俄罗斯与其拉丁美洲最大贸易伙伴对外经济关系发展的关键因素。分析了俄罗斯与巴西、厄瓜多尔、阿根廷、墨西哥和智利的对外贸易和投资合作的特点。阻碍这种合作发展的因素是世界经济不稳定、反俄制裁、物流网络发展薄弱、缺乏自由贸易协定、俄罗斯产品在拉丁美洲市场上的高关税、美国和中国的激烈竞争、过去几十年来俄罗斯企业对与该地区国家进行经济合作的兴趣不足。报告显示,俄罗斯同所审议的国家之间的贸易额增加最多的是同墨西哥的贸易,俄罗斯对阿根廷的出口增加,从墨西哥的进口增加。智利在所审议的国家之间的对外贸易关系方面的指标是最差的。结论是,面对反俄制裁,俄罗斯最大的拉丁美洲合作伙伴在俄罗斯市场上扩大存在的前景严峻。有两个关键因素有利于俄拉贸易合作的进一步发展。第一个是该地区许多国家的外交政策转向其他经济伙伴,以尽量减少对美国的依赖。第二,俄罗斯正在将其经济合作的载体从不友好国家转移到其他国家,包括拉丁美洲国家。结论是,两国投资合作具有一定的发展前景,特别是在油气勘探、能源和铁路建设领域。
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引用次数: 0
The place of peronism in the history of science in Argentina 庇隆主义在阿根廷科学史上的地位
Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI: 10.46272/2409-3416-2022-10-3-136-151
Hernán Comastri
This research is part of a larger study aimed at reconstructing the various ways in which professional historiography and other non-academic historical discourses have dealt with the relationship between Science and Peronism in contemporary Argentina. The purpose of this study is to analyze the overly simplistic image of this relationship that still persists in social memory and, to a large extent, continues to influence historical research agendas and the more general political debate. The article provides a bibliographic review and offers a reading key, useful for future research agendas, in which the history of science and that of Peronism intersects, coming from both professional historiography and of the disciplinary histories many times rehearsed by the scientific community itself. These investigations cover a multitude of topics, but for reasons of space and focus, we will focus here mainly on those disciplines that, broadly speaking, we could encompass within the “exact and natural sciences” and engineering. Based on these considerations, it is possible to observe that this field of study still reproduces a set of stereotypes that limit historical knowledge about the period, both with regard to the insertion of Peronism in a long-term reading of state policies in science and technology, as in its insertion in the history of the university in Argentina.
这项研究是一项更大的研究的一部分,旨在重建专业史学和其他非学术历史话语处理当代阿根廷科学与庇隆主义之间关系的各种方式。本研究的目的是分析这种关系过于简单化的形象,这种形象仍然存在于社会记忆中,并且在很大程度上继续影响历史研究议程和更普遍的政治辩论。这篇文章提供了一个参考文献回顾,并提供了一个阅读关键,对未来的研究议程有用,其中科学史和庇隆主义的历史交叉,来自专业史学和科学界本身多次预习的学科历史。这些调查涵盖了许多主题,但由于篇幅和重点的原因,我们将在这里主要关注那些学科,从广义上讲,我们可以包括在“精确和自然科学”和工程学中。基于这些考虑,我们可以观察到,这一研究领域仍然再现了一套刻板印象,限制了对这一时期的历史认识,无论是在对国家科技政策的长期解读中插入庇隆主义,还是在阿根廷大学的历史中插入庇隆主义。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Cadernos ibero-americanos de direito sanitario = Cuadernos iberoamericanos de derecho sanitario
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