Pub Date : 2025-08-19DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01210-2
Masooma Batool, Fanny J. Sarrazin, Xin Zhang, Andreas Musolff, Tam V. Nguyen, Sabine Attinger, Rohini Kumar
The Farm to Fork (F2F) Strategy under the Green Deal aims to halve nutrient losses by 2030 in the European Union (EU). Here, using the nitrogen surplus as an indicator for nitrogen losses in agricultural areas, we explore a range of scenarios for nitrogen surplus reduction across EU landscapes. We identify four nitrogen surplus typologies, each responding differently to input reduction. A 20% decrease in synthetic fertilizer alone is projected to reduce the nitrogen surplus by only 10–16%, falling short of F2F goals. Specific top-down scenarios such as reducing synthetic fertilizer by 43% and animal manure by 4%, coupled with improved technological and management practices, can achieve a reduction of up to 30–45% in nitrogen surplus. Among the most ambitious scenarios, only a handful of EU countries (four to five) may meet the intended F2F nitrogen pollution targets. Achieving F2F goals requires region-specific strategies to reduce nitrogen use while improving efficiency and sustaining productivity. This study evaluates nitrogen surplus reduction scenarios across Europe using century-long sub-national data and a multidimensional clustering algorithm. The findings show that a 20% fertilizer reduction alone is insufficient to meet Farm to Fork targets and that region-specific strategies, combined with advances in technology and management practices, are essential.
{"title":"Scenario analysis of nitrogen surplus typologies in Europe shows that a 20% fertilizer reduction may fall short of 2030 EU Green Deal goals","authors":"Masooma Batool, Fanny J. Sarrazin, Xin Zhang, Andreas Musolff, Tam V. Nguyen, Sabine Attinger, Rohini Kumar","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01210-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01210-2","url":null,"abstract":"The Farm to Fork (F2F) Strategy under the Green Deal aims to halve nutrient losses by 2030 in the European Union (EU). Here, using the nitrogen surplus as an indicator for nitrogen losses in agricultural areas, we explore a range of scenarios for nitrogen surplus reduction across EU landscapes. We identify four nitrogen surplus typologies, each responding differently to input reduction. A 20% decrease in synthetic fertilizer alone is projected to reduce the nitrogen surplus by only 10–16%, falling short of F2F goals. Specific top-down scenarios such as reducing synthetic fertilizer by 43% and animal manure by 4%, coupled with improved technological and management practices, can achieve a reduction of up to 30–45% in nitrogen surplus. Among the most ambitious scenarios, only a handful of EU countries (four to five) may meet the intended F2F nitrogen pollution targets. Achieving F2F goals requires region-specific strategies to reduce nitrogen use while improving efficiency and sustaining productivity. This study evaluates nitrogen surplus reduction scenarios across Europe using century-long sub-national data and a multidimensional clustering algorithm. The findings show that a 20% fertilizer reduction alone is insufficient to meet Farm to Fork targets and that region-specific strategies, combined with advances in technology and management practices, are essential.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 8","pages":"787-798"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12367536/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144884690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-19DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01207-x
Alberto Sanz-Cobena, Rasmus Einarsson
Improved nitrogen efficiency alone will not halve nitrogen pollution in Europe. Comprehensive regionally adapted measures across both production and consumption are needed to truly address these challenges from farm to fork.
{"title":"Nitrogen efficiency falls short of environmental targets","authors":"Alberto Sanz-Cobena, Rasmus Einarsson","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01207-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01207-x","url":null,"abstract":"Improved nitrogen efficiency alone will not halve nitrogen pollution in Europe. Comprehensive regionally adapted measures across both production and consumption are needed to truly address these challenges from farm to fork.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 8","pages":"745-746"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144884689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-18DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01213-z
Cynthia Schuck-Paim, Wladimir J. Alonso, Cleo Verkuijl, Margaret Hegwood, Kate Hartcher
Animal welfare lacks sufficient methods for quantitative inclusion in food system impact assessments. The Welfare Footprint Framework addresses this gap, revealing that adopting slower-growing breeds can prevent at least 15–100 hours of intense pain in chickens at an estimated cost of US$1 per kilogram of meat, or US$0.00003–0.00005 for each hour using carbon externality pricing.
{"title":"The Welfare Footprint Framework can help balance animal welfare with other food system priorities","authors":"Cynthia Schuck-Paim, Wladimir J. Alonso, Cleo Verkuijl, Margaret Hegwood, Kate Hartcher","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01213-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01213-z","url":null,"abstract":"Animal welfare lacks sufficient methods for quantitative inclusion in food system impact assessments. The Welfare Footprint Framework addresses this gap, revealing that adopting slower-growing breeds can prevent at least 15–100 hours of intense pain in chickens at an estimated cost of US$1 per kilogram of meat, or US$0.00003–0.00005 for each hour using carbon externality pricing.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 8","pages":"737-739"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144877676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-18DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01211-1
Mehroosh Tak, Sardar Babur Hussain, Haris Zargar, Lauren Jessica Blake
Prevalent policy responses to food systems in protracted crises adopt a dichotomous lens of either humanitarian aid or economic underdevelopment, while ignoring the key role of colonialism and/or settler colonialism. Here we propose a framework to enable us to better comprehend food systems in protracted crises by paying attention to the role of colonial and settler colonial regimes and their use of slow violence and land dispossession in de-developing food systems. Investigation and acknowledgement of these structural drivers of food systems change is critical for policy success due to the role of the state in the perpetration of violence against Indigenous or native peoples’ food systems in protracted crises. Policy responses to food systems in protracted crises tend to ignore the role of colonial and settler colonial regimes and their use of slow violence and land dispossession in de-developing food systems. Acknowledging these structural elements is critical for policy success.
{"title":"Settler colonialism de-develops food systems in protracted crises","authors":"Mehroosh Tak, Sardar Babur Hussain, Haris Zargar, Lauren Jessica Blake","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01211-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01211-1","url":null,"abstract":"Prevalent policy responses to food systems in protracted crises adopt a dichotomous lens of either humanitarian aid or economic underdevelopment, while ignoring the key role of colonialism and/or settler colonialism. Here we propose a framework to enable us to better comprehend food systems in protracted crises by paying attention to the role of colonial and settler colonial regimes and their use of slow violence and land dispossession in de-developing food systems. Investigation and acknowledgement of these structural drivers of food systems change is critical for policy success due to the role of the state in the perpetration of violence against Indigenous or native peoples’ food systems in protracted crises. Policy responses to food systems in protracted crises tend to ignore the role of colonial and settler colonial regimes and their use of slow violence and land dispossession in de-developing food systems. Acknowledging these structural elements is critical for policy success.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 8","pages":"751-756"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144877675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-11DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01218-8
Annika N. Flynn, Taro Takahashi, Alex Sim, Jeffrey M. Brunstrom
A weekly canteen menu comprising 15 dishes (3 dishes × 5 days) has 1.4 million unique configurations. Here food choice was monitored over four weeks ( ~ 5,000 meals) in a UK university residence. Without students noticing, mathematically optimized menus achieved 30.7% and 6.3% reductions in carbon footprint and saturated fatty acid intake, respectively. This demonstrates the potential of strategic menu manipulation to benefit health and the environment, without the need for recipe changes. Menu manipulation is a promising strategy to increase environmental and health benefits of food choices. Drawing on data from a UK university residence, this study illustrates such potential.
{"title":"Dish swap across a weekly menu can deliver health and sustainability gains","authors":"Annika N. Flynn, Taro Takahashi, Alex Sim, Jeffrey M. Brunstrom","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01218-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01218-8","url":null,"abstract":"A weekly canteen menu comprising 15 dishes (3 dishes × 5 days) has 1.4 million unique configurations. Here food choice was monitored over four weeks ( ~ 5,000 meals) in a UK university residence. Without students noticing, mathematically optimized menus achieved 30.7% and 6.3% reductions in carbon footprint and saturated fatty acid intake, respectively. This demonstrates the potential of strategic menu manipulation to benefit health and the environment, without the need for recipe changes. Menu manipulation is a promising strategy to increase environmental and health benefits of food choices. Drawing on data from a UK university residence, this study illustrates such potential.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 9","pages":"843-847"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-025-01218-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144813042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-08DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01216-w
Fiona Coleman
As global hunger remains elevated, and foreign assistance budgets shrink, the humanitarian food assistance system is under immense strain. Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of Food Security and Nutrition Analysis at the World Food Programme, reflects on the implications of the recent funding cuts and what is needed to save lives now and in the future.
{"title":"Humanitarian food aid in crisis","authors":"Fiona Coleman","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01216-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01216-w","url":null,"abstract":"As global hunger remains elevated, and foreign assistance budgets shrink, the humanitarian food assistance system is under immense strain. Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of Food Security and Nutrition Analysis at the World Food Programme, reflects on the implications of the recent funding cuts and what is needed to save lives now and in the future.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 8","pages":"740-741"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144797573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-08DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01215-x
João Vasco Silva, Jill E. Cairns, Dumisani Kutywayo
Satellite data reveal widespread stagnation in cropland productivity and moderate climate trends across much of southern Africa. Ground-truthing these results using a mix of approaches and local knowledge is critical to avoid inadvertently misguiding investments in the future.
{"title":"Why crop yields fail to increase in southern Africa","authors":"João Vasco Silva, Jill E. Cairns, Dumisani Kutywayo","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01215-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01215-x","url":null,"abstract":"Satellite data reveal widespread stagnation in cropland productivity and moderate climate trends across much of southern Africa. Ground-truthing these results using a mix of approaches and local knowledge is critical to avoid inadvertently misguiding investments in the future.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 8","pages":"743-744"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144797379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-05DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01212-0
Nicole Bamber, Ian Turner, Nathan Pelletier
A carbon footprint analysis following the ISO 14067 standard reveals that Canadian field crops have generally much lower footprints than those of international competitors due to differences in soil carbon flux and nitrous oxide emissions. Transportation-to-market of Canadian crops is proportionately important, but related emissions are often more than offset by low production-related emissions. In extreme cases, Canadian crops could be shipped to western European markets an additional 17 times before their carbon footprint would break even with crops grown in Europe. Greenhouse gas emissions of major commodity field crops are of increasing interest to diverse stakeholders. A carbon footprint analysis following the ISO 14067 standard reveals key drivers of, and differences in, emissions for selected field crop production and transport to market between Canada and other countries.
{"title":"Rapeseed, wheat and peas grown in Canada have considerably lower carbon footprints than those from major international competitors","authors":"Nicole Bamber, Ian Turner, Nathan Pelletier","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01212-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01212-0","url":null,"abstract":"A carbon footprint analysis following the ISO 14067 standard reveals that Canadian field crops have generally much lower footprints than those of international competitors due to differences in soil carbon flux and nitrous oxide emissions. Transportation-to-market of Canadian crops is proportionately important, but related emissions are often more than offset by low production-related emissions. In extreme cases, Canadian crops could be shipped to western European markets an additional 17 times before their carbon footprint would break even with crops grown in Europe. Greenhouse gas emissions of major commodity field crops are of increasing interest to diverse stakeholders. A carbon footprint analysis following the ISO 14067 standard reveals key drivers of, and differences in, emissions for selected field crop production and transport to market between Canada and other countries.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 8","pages":"757-761"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-025-01212-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144778485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-25DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01194-z
João Vasco Silva, Fernando Aramburu-Merlos, Frédéric Baudron, Samuel Gameda, Tesfaye Shiferaw Sida, Vicky Ruganzu, Joel Meliyo, Moti Jaleta, Jordan Chamberlin, Robert J. Hijmans
Acid soils are widespread across sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural lime can be used to alleviate production constraints associated with soil acidity, but lime is not widely available in the region, and it is unclear if applying it would be profitable. Using lime requirement models and crop yield responses to soil acidity modelled as plateau–linear decay functions, we estimated the profitability of acid soil remediation through liming. Crop yield loss to soil acidity occurs on 32.7 Mha, or 23% of sub-Saharan Africa’s cropland. The burden of acid soils is US$6.0 billion (6% of the current production value), and 75% of that could be profitably alleviated. Under prevailing conditions, liming would be profitable in the year of application on 6.2 Mha (with an average profitability of US$278 ha−1) and on 8.8 Mha when lime’s long-term effect is considered. Intensification of crop production and lower relative lime/output prices could make liming profitable on more cropland. Soil acidity constrains agricultural productivity in a large proportion of sub-Saharan Africa’s croplands. This study estimates the location- and crop-specific amounts of lime required to remediate acid soils, taking into account the profitability and returns on investment of liming in the year of application and beyond.
{"title":"Soil acidity remediation in sub-Saharan Africa requires targeted investments","authors":"João Vasco Silva, Fernando Aramburu-Merlos, Frédéric Baudron, Samuel Gameda, Tesfaye Shiferaw Sida, Vicky Ruganzu, Joel Meliyo, Moti Jaleta, Jordan Chamberlin, Robert J. Hijmans","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01194-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01194-z","url":null,"abstract":"Acid soils are widespread across sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural lime can be used to alleviate production constraints associated with soil acidity, but lime is not widely available in the region, and it is unclear if applying it would be profitable. Using lime requirement models and crop yield responses to soil acidity modelled as plateau–linear decay functions, we estimated the profitability of acid soil remediation through liming. Crop yield loss to soil acidity occurs on 32.7 Mha, or 23% of sub-Saharan Africa’s cropland. The burden of acid soils is US$6.0 billion (6% of the current production value), and 75% of that could be profitably alleviated. Under prevailing conditions, liming would be profitable in the year of application on 6.2 Mha (with an average profitability of US$278 ha−1) and on 8.8 Mha when lime’s long-term effect is considered. Intensification of crop production and lower relative lime/output prices could make liming profitable on more cropland. Soil acidity constrains agricultural productivity in a large proportion of sub-Saharan Africa’s croplands. This study estimates the location- and crop-specific amounts of lime required to remediate acid soils, taking into account the profitability and returns on investment of liming in the year of application and beyond.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 8","pages":"799-808"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144701531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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