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Detrending U.S. GDP and Policy Responses to Economic Recessions 美国 GDP 走势与应对经济衰退的政策
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/101/20231694
Shuai Huang, Zizhao Liang, Kun Chen
The purpose of the article is to verify whether to stimulate investment or consumption when facing a recession in order to stabilize the economy. We use the detrend method and some specific data to analyze the situation. When faced with a financial crisis, some effective measures can help stabilize the economy. To diversify the sample, we include the United States' GDP in 19812022. We tried to predict some trend that might happen in the next few years, but when facing such a financial crisis, it shows a sharp downward trend. We also find that the standard deviation of investment is larger than the standard deviation of consumption, which means that in the short term, its better to stimulate investment since it can be affected a lot. On the contrary, we had better stimulate consumption in the long term because of its stability.
本文旨在验证在面临经济衰退时,是刺激投资还是刺激消费以稳定经济。我们采用去趋势法和一些具体数据来分析。在面临金融危机时,一些有效的措施可以帮助稳定经济。为了使样本多样化,我们将美国 19812022 年的 GDP 纳入样本。我们试图预测未来几年可能发生的一些趋势,但当面临这样一场金融危机时,它却呈现出急剧下降的趋势。我们还发现,投资的标准偏差大于消费的标准偏差,这意味着在短期内,最好是刺激投资,因为它会受到很大的影响。相反,从长期来看,我们最好刺激消费,因为它具有稳定性。
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引用次数: 0
Analyses the Strategies for Sustained Membership Growth in Post-COVID-19 China 分析后 COVID-19 时代中国会员持续增长的策略
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/102/2024ed0056
Longxuan Bin
China's domestic retail industry has been adversely affected by the recent coronavirus pandemic for the past two years. Nevertheless, following the containment of the outbreak, the general condition has ameliorated. The objective of this paper was to examine the factors contributing to the growth of Sam's Club stores in China following the conclusion of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the paper aims to propose systematic strategies to enhance customer turnout at Sam's Club and other retail establishments in China. This study employed a case study methodology to examine the aspects that could potentially contribute to the expected growth of Sam's Club between 2022 and 2023. The conclusion section of this article analyzes the determinants that impact the sustainable development of Sam's Club. The study included suggestions on how Sam's Club and the Chinese retail industry may adapt in order to sustain the growth of their membership numbers in the near future.
过去两年来,中国国内零售业一直受到近期冠状病毒疫情的不利影响。尽管如此,随着疫情的控制,总体情况已有所好转。本文旨在研究 COVID-19 大流行结束后,山姆会员店在中国的增长因素。此外,本文还旨在提出系统性战略,以提高山姆会员店和中国其他零售机构的顾客回头率。本研究采用案例研究方法,对山姆会员店在 2022 年至 2023 年间的预期增长可能做出贡献的方面进行了研究。本文的结论部分分析了影响山姆会员商店可持续发展的决定因素。研究还就山姆会员店和中国零售业如何进行调整以在不久的将来保持会员数量的增长提出了建议。
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引用次数: 0
A Study of Debt Problems in the Chinese Real Estate Industry 中国房地产业债务问题研究
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/102/2024ed0087
Heng Zhang
This paper will focus on real estate industry in China, uses Evergrande group as a case to compare with another Chinese real estate company Vanke and a real estate company of United State which is AvalonBay Communities, Inc. This paper will introduce the background of real estate industry in China, and base on the case which is bankruptcy of Evergrande Group to throughout the causes find out the issues of real estate in China, in causes is discuss of three factors: Industry characteristics, financing channels, loan evaluation, analysing what make Evergrande can owe a massive $2.4 trillion in debt, and analysing the United States real estate industry not usually having such high leverage. Essay will tell the strategy of real estate companies in China usually do. The strategy led to Evergrande group bankruptcy and compare with Vanke uses what strategy avoid debt crisis. Finally, conclude the chaos of real estate industry in China reflected by Evergrande group, recognise the issues of Evergrande group and prevent the significant consequence occur again.
本文将聚焦中国的房地产行业,以恒大集团为案例,与另一家中国房地产公司万科和一家美国房地产公司 AvalonBay Communities, Inc. 进行比较。本文将介绍中国房地产业的背景,并以恒大集团破产这一案例为基础,通过原因分析找出中国房地产存在的问题:行业特点、融资渠道、贷款评估,分析是什么让恒大可以欠下 2.4 万亿美元的巨额债务,并分析美国房地产行业通常没有如此高的杠杆率。文章将讲述中国房地产公司通常采取的战略。该战略导致恒大集团破产,并比较万科采用何种战略避免债务危机。最后,总结恒大集团反映出的中国房地产业的乱象,认识恒大集团存在的问题,防止重大后果再次发生。
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引用次数: 0
Situation Analysis of Sam's Club Based on the SWOT Model Based on the Research of Chinese Market Environment 基于中国市场环境研究的 SWOT 模型对山姆会员店的现状分析
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/101/20231716
Tianqin Shi
Sam's Club was founded by Mr. Sam Walton, the founder of Walmart, in 1983. As a high-end member superstore under Walmart, one of the world's top 500 companies, it has made inroads into the international market since the early 1990s. Since the first Sam's Club landed in Shenzhen in 1998, Sam's Club currently operates 36 stores in 23 cities and covers most of the country through its e-commerce platform. By focusing on the characteristics of consumers, market trends, and brand influence in Mainland China. This report analyzes the internal business advantages and disadvantages of Sam's Club and the external environment in the Chinese market. It summarizes them with the SWOT model through field visits and data searches. Finally, this article proposes strategic outputs for its internal strengths and weaknesses as well as market opportunities and threats. By analyzing the example of Sam's Club in this article, it suggests the key reasons why it went viral. Since Sams Club went into the Chinese market depending on focusing on its three main competitive generic strategies, Sam's Club has seized the opportunity of the epidemic to expand its marketing scope by leveraging them. In the development of the Chinese market, changes in consumer preferences and the economic environment have led to problems. The WO strategy becomes the optimal choice for Sam's Club to consider with the internal and external situation of the current development in China, to strengthen its own strengths and clear the business strategies.
山姆会员店由沃尔玛创始人山姆-沃尔顿先生于 1983 年创立。作为世界 500 强企业之一沃尔玛旗下的高端会员制超市,山姆会员店自 20 世纪 90 年代初开始进军国际市场。自 1998 年第一家山姆会员商店落户深圳以来,山姆会员商店目前已在 23 个城市开设了 36 家门店,并通过电子商务平台覆盖了全国大部分地区。本报告通过对中国内地消费者特征、市场趋势和品牌影响力的研究,分析了山姆会员店的内部经营优势,并对其在中国内地的发展前景进行了展望。本报告分析了山姆会员商店的内部业务优势和劣势,以及中国市场的外部环境。通过实地考察和数据搜索,利用 SWOT 模型对其进行总结。最后,本文针对其内部优势和劣势以及市场机会和威胁提出了战略输出建议。本文通过对山姆会员店的实例分析,提出了其走红的关键原因。由于山姆会员店进入中国市场主要依靠其三大竞争通用战略,因此山姆会员店抓住了疫情的机会,利用这些战略扩大了营销范围。在中国市场的发展过程中,消费者偏好和经济环境的变化导致了一些问题。WO战略成为山姆会员店结合中国发展现状的内外部形势,强化自身优势,明确经营策略的最优选择。
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引用次数: 0
Enterprise Brand Building Empowered by Chinese Culture -- Taking Moutai as an Example 中国文化助力企业品牌建设--以茅台为例
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/101/20231655
Xintong Suo
Chinese culture has a profound impact on enterprise brand construction, enterprises in the brand construction to establish a good reputation and image, which is consistent with the principle of advocating integrity in Chinese culture, enterprises in the brand construction of the Chinese traditional cultural elements into the product design and marketing activities, enhance the brand uniqueness and attractiveness. Chinese culture emphasizes drinking culture, and Moutai is a traditional high-end liquor based on Chinese culture. Its unique brewing process and long history perfectly reflect the pursuit and unique insight of Chinese culture for wine making. As a traditional brand, Moutai inherits and carries forward traditional Chinese values and family culture through the production skills and drinking ceremony passed down from generation to generation. With its noble temperament and exquisite packaging, Moutai wine shows the elegance and charm of Chinese culture, and has become a good product for domestic and foreign feasts and ceremonial occasions. When Moutai was negatively affected by the macro environment, Moutai still relied on cross-border co-branding, cultural integration and digital integration of Chinese culture to get out of the dilemma.
中国文化对企业品牌建设有着深远的影响,企业在品牌建设中要树立良好的口碑和形象,这与中国文化中倡导诚信的原则是一致的,企业在品牌建设中要将中国传统文化元素融入到产品设计和营销活动中,增强品牌的独特性和吸引力。中国文化讲究饮酒文化,茅台酒是以中国文化为基础的传统高端白酒。其独特的酿造工艺和悠久的历史完美体现了中国文化对酿酒的追求和独特见解。作为一个传统品牌,茅台酒通过代代相传的制作技艺和饮酒礼仪,继承和发扬了中国传统价值观和家文化。茅台酒以其高贵的气质和精美的包装,展现了中国文化的典雅和魅力,成为国内外宴请和礼仪场合的佳品。当茅台酒受到宏观环境的负面影响时,茅台酒依然依靠跨界联合品牌、文化整合和中国文化数字化融合走出困境。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing the Successful Reasons for Microsoft Cloud Computing Service Business Transformation 分析微软云计算服务业务转型的成功原因
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/102/2024ed0065
Zhihuan Ye
With the continuous development of high-tech due to the emergence of artificial intelligence services, resulting in a growing trend in enterprise transformation, Microsoft began to officially transition to cloud computing services in 2010. The purpose of this study, based on the above content, was to investigate the reasons for Microsoft's transformation into a stable period. This paper used a real-life case study to analyze the business value of Microsoft's cloud computing services and artificial intelligence in light of Microsoft's transformation. The study's results indicated that three factorstalent reserve, technological innovation and accumulation, and corporate strategic layoutare responsible for transforming Microsoft's cloud computing service into a stable period. Therefore, Microsoft needs to attract more high-quality and innovative technical talents; vigorously develop technological innovation; increase investment in research and development; and constantly promote technological innovation; strengthen the core business; increase investment in emerging areas; deepen partnerships; strengthen the global layout; and focus on corporate social responsibility and sustainable development in order to maintain its competitive advantage and create more business value. This study's value and significance lie in its analysis of Microsoft's forward-looking cloud computing transformation while still maintaining its business value, providing new ideas for Microsoft's subsequent development, and providing reference value for enterprises in the same industry in the transformation.
随着高科技的不断发展,由于人工智能服务的出现,导致企业转型的趋势越来越明显,微软于 2010 年开始正式向云计算服务转型。本研究基于上述内容,旨在探究微软转型进入稳定期的原因。本文通过一个真实案例,结合微软的转型,分析了微软云计算服务和人工智能的商业价值。研究结果表明,人才储备、技术创新与积累、企业战略布局三个因素是微软云计算服务转型进入稳定期的原因。因此,微软需要吸引更多高素质的创新型技术人才,大力发展技术创新,加大研发投入,不断推进技术创新,强化核心业务,加大新兴领域投入,深化合作伙伴关系,加强全球布局,注重企业社会责任和可持续发展,以保持竞争优势,创造更多商业价值。本研究的价值和意义在于分析了微软在保持自身商业价值的前提下进行云计算转型的前瞻性,为微软的后续发展提供了新思路,也为同行业企业的转型提供了参考价值。
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引用次数: 0
Research on Stock Selection Strategies Based on the Basic Value of Stocks Based on Buffett's Theory 基于巴菲特理论的股票基本价值选股策略研究
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/102/2024ed0076
Liuyi Chen
The paper presented is highly significant as it explores the applicability and effectiveness of Warren Buffett's stock value investing theory in China's A-share market. By employing five key indicatorsdividend yield, debt-to-asset ratio, ROE, net profit growth rate, and the 200-day moving average (MA200), the paper attempts to adjust the values of these indicators to construct a model. This model is tested on the Chinese A-share market to verify its universality and effectiveness. Ultimately, the author concludes that the stock value investing theory is practical in the Chinese market, although the numerical values differ significantly from those recommended in traditional Western literature. Specifically, the return on equity (ROE) within a specific parameter range yields better returns, which are a quarter lower than the values mentioned by Buffett; the forecasted net profit growth rate for the coming year shows a slight negative correlation with excess returns within a certain range; and the latest balance sheet debt-to-asset ratio and dividend yield are positively correlated with excess returns within a specific range.
本文探讨了巴菲特的股票价值投资理论在中国 A 股市场的适用性和有效性,意义重大。通过运用股息率、资产负债率、净资产收益率、净利润增长率和 200 日移动平均线(MA200)这五个关键指标,本文试图调整这些指标的数值,从而构建一个模型。该模型在中国 A 股市场进行了检验,以验证其普遍性和有效性。最终,作者得出结论,股票价值投资理论在中国市场是实用的,尽管其数值与西方传统文献中推荐的数值有很大不同。具体而言,在特定参数范围内的净资产收益率(ROE)能获得较好的回报,比巴菲特提到的数值低四分之一;预测的下一年度净利润增长率在一定范围内与超额回报略呈负相关;最新资产负债率和股息率在特定范围内与超额回报呈正相关。
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引用次数: 0
Supply Chain Risk Management Strategies in the Era of Digital Intelligence Integration: Strategies and Insights 数字智能整合时代的供应链风险管理战略:战略与见解
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/102/2024ed0071
Qiming Liu
This study explores the impact of digital intelligence-driven developments on business strategies and operations, and through a combination of theoretical analyses and case studies, it provides insights into the risk landscape faced by enterprises in the context of digital and smart transformation, offering practical solutions and insights to help them meet the challenges. In addition, the study highlights the experience of leading manufacturing companies such as Haier in building digital supply chains, which provides valuable experience for SMEs seeking to improve their competitiveness and adaptability. This study also delves into key issues that hinder the implementation of digital supply chain projects, such as financial constraints, technological barriers, talent shortages and cybersecurity issues. Based on these findings, this study proposes that companies adopt a phased digital transformation strategy, focus on talent development and technology adoption, and collaborate with government and stakeholders to create an environment that fosters digital innovation and enhances resilience. Ultimately, successfully addressing supply chain risks in the age of digital intelligence requires proactive strategies, flexible adaptation and cross-sectoral collaboration to drive sustainable growth and competitiveness in the digital economy.
本研究探讨了数字智能驱动的发展对企业战略和运营的影响,通过理论分析和案例研究相结合的方式,深入剖析了企业在数字化和智能化转型背景下面临的风险状况,为企业应对挑战提供了切实可行的解决方案和见解。此外,本研究还重点介绍了海尔等领先制造企业在构建数字化供应链方面的经验,为中小企业提高竞争力和适应性提供了宝贵的经验。本研究还深入探讨了阻碍数字化供应链项目实施的关键问题,如资金限制、技术壁垒、人才短缺和网络安全问题。基于这些发现,本研究建议企业采取分阶段的数字化转型战略,注重人才培养和技术应用,并与政府和利益相关方合作,营造一个促进数字化创新和增强应变能力的环境。归根结底,要成功应对数字智能时代的供应链风险,就必须采取积极主动的战略,灵活调整并开展跨部门合作,以推动数字经济的可持续增长并提高竞争力。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on the Impact of Capital Structure on the Performance of Listed Companies 资本结构对上市公司绩效的影响研究
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/102/2024ed0085
Yiran Tao
The paper investigates the influence of capital structure on listed companies' performance, with a focus on the property sector, spanning 2010 to 2021. It delves into Modigliani-Miller theorem, factors shaping capital structure decisions, and industry-specific characteristics across various sectors like real estate, technology, and healthcare, and compares capital structure trends in developed and developing countries. The findings reveal a nuanced relationship between capital structure and performance, varying by industry and market maturity. In capital-intensive sectors, like real estate, excessive leverage correlates with diminished performance, while moderate debt levels in technology and healthcare can support innovation but excess leverage may hinder it. Developed countries tend towards balanced capital structures, whereas developing nations lean more towards debt financing. Notably, Chinese firms demonstrate superior property investment efficiency and capital structure management compared to Vietnam. Contributions include a comprehensive framework for capital structure determinants, industry-specific insights aiding firms in optimizing capital structure, empirical evidence on capital structure management in different developing nations, and highlighting capital structure's multidimensional impact on firm performance, encompassing financial risk, R&D investment, and market competitiveness. This study offers valuable guidance for firms, particularly in emerging markets like China, in devising optimal capital structure strategies tailored to industry dynamics and market conditions.
本文研究了资本结构对上市公司业绩的影响,重点关注房地产行业,时间跨度为 2010 年至 2021 年。论文深入探讨了莫迪利亚尼-米勒定理、影响资本结构决策的因素以及房地产、科技和医疗保健等不同行业的具体特征,并比较了发达国家和发展中国家的资本结构趋势。研究结果表明,资本结构与业绩之间存在着微妙的关系,因行业和市场成熟度而异。在房地产等资本密集型行业,过高的杠杆率与业绩下降相关,而在科技和医疗保健行业,适度的债务水平可以支持创新,但过高的杠杆率可能会阻碍创新。发达国家倾向于平衡资本结构,而发展中国家则更倾向于债务融资。值得注意的是,与越南相比,中国企业在房地产投资效率和资本结构管理方面更胜一筹。本研究的贡献包括:建立了资本结构决定因素的综合框架;提出了帮助企业优化资本结构的行业性见解;提供了不同发展中国家资本结构管理的经验证据;强调了资本结构对企业绩效的多维影响,包括财务风险、研发投资和市场竞争力。本研究为企业,尤其是中国等新兴市场的企业,根据行业动态和市场条件制定最优资本结构战略提供了宝贵的指导。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing the Commercial Value of Cartoon Characters: A Case Study on Loopy 分析卡通人物的商业价值:罗比》案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/102/2024ed0051
Chanyi Xie
In recent years, the cartoon character Loopy has seen a swift and significant surge in popularity, resulting in a major increase in its economic worth. Based on this phenomenon, this article aimed to understand Loopy's business significance and explore the factors that contribute to its significant commercial value, taking into account its historical and contextual background. This paper did a sample analysis of Loopy in different market sectors and investigated the elements that contribute to its increasing commercial worth. Additionally, this paper compared it to the earlier depiction of Loopy. This study determined that the rapid growth in commercial worth generated by Loopy may be attributed to the psychological projection effects experienced by customers, the expansion of the market, and the rationale behind Loopy's collaborations with other companies. Social media platforms' services, users' psychological projections, and cooperation with different enterprises may have contributed to Loopy's rapid popularity and increasing economic value.
近年来,卡通人物卢比的知名度迅速大幅飙升,导致其经济价值大增。基于这一现象,本文旨在了解 Loopy 的商业意义,并结合其历史和背景,探讨促成其巨大商业价值的因素。本文对 Loopy 在不同市场领域的情况进行了抽样分析,并研究了促使其商业价值不断提高的因素。此外,本文还将其与早期对 Loopy 的描述进行了比较。本研究认为,Loopy 商业价值的快速增长可归因于客户体验到的心理投射效应、市场的扩张以及 Loopy 与其他公司合作背后的原因。社交媒体平台的服务、用户的心理投射以及与不同企业的合作可能是 Loopy 迅速流行和经济价值不断增长的原因。
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引用次数: 0
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Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
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