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On the Implications of Two-Sided Altruism in Human-Capital-Based OLG Model 基于人力资本的OLG模型中双边利他主义的含义
Pub Date : 2009-05-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1159423
Takaaki Aoki
This article summarizes some propositions regarding economic dynamics and implications of two-way altruism, on the basis of the human-capital-based OLG model of Ehrlich and Lui (1991) and Ehrlich and Kim (2007) with application of a modified, fertility-endogenized definition of linearly separable two-way altruism examined by Abel (1987) and Altig and Davis (1993). Some properties in both a transition process and a steady state, and the effect of unfunded social security on an equilibrium path are also discussed. My calibration results and analyses show that (1) the combination of altruism toward parents and children is crucial for determining a threshold level of initial human capital and productivity in a transition process (stagnant to growth or growth to stagnant), and the generation’s attained utility, (2) dynamic consistency might not necessarily be the best choice to overpass the stumbling block against growth regime, (3) in this human-capital-based OLG model, a regular recursive induction approach might still cause inefficiency in terms of an ex-post Pareto optimality criterion as of two periods later, even if strategic effects for after children (two generations later) are appropriately taken account of, and (4) unfunded social security tax, which involves actuarially fair insurance as well as certainty premium transfer, does affect critical values for a regime change as well as dynamic equilibrium paths and corresponding subsequent life strategies, even in two-way altruistic economy.
本文在Ehrlich和Lui(1991)以及Ehrlich和Kim(2007)基于人力资本的OLG模型的基础上,运用Abel(1987)和Altig和Davis(1993)检验的线性可分双向利他主义的改进的生育内生定义,总结了有关双向利他主义的经济动态和含义的一些命题。讨论了过渡过程和稳态的一些性质,以及无资金保障对均衡路径的影响。我的校准结果和分析表明:(1)对父母和子女的利他主义的结合对于确定过渡过程(从停滞到增长或从增长到停滞)中初始人力资本和生产率的阈值水平以及这一代人获得的效用至关重要;(2)动态一致性可能不一定是跨越阻碍增长制度的绊脚石的最佳选择;(3)在这个基于人力资本的OLG模型中。常规的递归归纳方法可能仍然会导致两个时期后的帕累托最优性标准的效率低下,即使对后子女(两代人之后)的战略影响被适当地考虑在内,以及(4)无资金的社会保障税,这涉及精算公平保险以及确定性保费转移。即使在双向利他经济中,也会影响制度变化的临界值,以及动态平衡路径和相应的后续生活策略。
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引用次数: 1
Should I Stay or Should I Go? Gender Differences in Professional Employment 我该走还是该留?专业就业中的性别差异
Pub Date : 2009-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1413695
Kathrin Leuze, A. Rusconi
Occupational sex segregation is a persistent source of social inequalities. The increasing participation of women in tertiary education and rising female employment rates, however, have given hope that gender inequalities will decline as a result of growing female opportunities for high skill employment in the service sector, e.g. the professions. This paper asks whether such optimistic accounts are justified by comparing male and female professional career trajectories in Germany. Our main assumptions hold that, even today, strong gender differences continue to exist between public and private sector professions, which are further aggravated by different forms of family commitment. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that even among highly qualified men and women, important patterns of sex segregation are present. An initial horizontal segregation between public and private sectors brings about "equal, but different" career prospects, which in the phase of family formation turn into vertical segregation, promoting "different and therefore unequal" labor market chances.
职业性别隔离是社会不平等的持久根源。然而,妇女越来越多地参加高等教育和妇女就业率的上升使人们希望,由于妇女在服务部门,例如专业领域获得高技能就业的机会越来越多,性别不平等现象将会减少。本文通过比较德国男性和女性的职业生涯轨迹,来质疑这种乐观的说法是否合理。我们的主要假设是,即使在今天,公共部门和私营部门的职业之间仍然存在着强烈的性别差异,而不同形式的家庭承诺进一步加剧了这种差异。总的来说,我们的分析表明,即使在高素质的男性和女性中,也存在重要的性别隔离模式。公共部门和私营部门之间最初的横向隔离带来了“平等但不同”的职业前景,在家庭形成阶段,这种隔离转变为纵向隔离,促进了“不同的,因此不平等的”劳动力市场机会。
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引用次数: 22
Delay in Marriage and Income Inequality in Japan: The Impact of the Increased Number of Unmarried Adults Living with Their Parents on the Household 日本晚婚与收入不平等:与父母同住的未婚成年人数量增加对家庭的影响
Pub Date : 2009-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1413821
S. Shirahase
The continuous decline in the fertility rate has been witnessed since 1980 in Japan. Japan's total fertility rate in 2005 is 1.32, which is far below the replacement rate, 2.08. One of the main reasons for declining the fertility rate is the delay in marriage or even shy away from marriage among young adults. In this paper, looking at youth interms of their relation to the household, we will examine the economic disparities of unmarried adults living with their parents in Japan in comparative perspective with Europe and U.S. The countries which I analyze in this paper are France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, U.K., U.S., and Taiwan, compared with Japan. The paper consists of twoparts. First, I will examine economic disparities among households with unmarried adults, and second, the determinants of co-residence with their parents will be scrutinized. The degree of the Japanese youth unemployment rate is not as high as those in European countries, but it is commonly found that the youth tend to be targeted by economic downturns, and that they are exposed to high economic risk. Young unmarried people do not always live alone, but share their households with their family, mostly their parents. Less than 20 percent of unmarried adults live alone in Japan, and in Italy and Taiwan, its corresponding figures are even lower than thatin Japan. The proportion of income derived from unmarried adults in the household economy is more or less negatively associated with family income. Therefore, unmarried adults are not always dependent on their parents in the household but there are cases in which unmarried adults are the ones who support the family incomeby living with their parents, particularly in low-income groups. The economic role of unmarried adult children in the household differs by the level of household economy. In determining if unmarried adults live with their parents, the economic factor is important for both men and women. Since their individual income is not high enough to have their independent households, they stay in their parental home. The most interesting finding in this analysis is on the gender role in living arrangement with their parents. Unmarried female adults are less likely to stay in their parental home if their mothers are at work, while there is no significant impact of mother's work on their male counterparts. Unmarried daughters are like to be expected to take over the mother's role in the households when she is in the labor force, so there is a gendered allocation of family role for unmarried adults. Thus, the economic levels of unmarried adults and the gender constrain in allocating family roles were important in determining the living arrangement with the parents.
自1980年以来,日本的生育率持续下降。2005年日本的总生育率为1.32,远低于2.08的人口替代率。生育率下降的主要原因之一是年轻人推迟结婚,甚至回避结婚。在这篇论文中,我们将从年轻人与家庭的关系来看,从欧洲和美国的比较角度来研究日本未婚成年人与父母同住的经济差距。我在这篇论文中分析的国家是法国、德国、意大利、瑞典、英国、美国和台湾,与日本相比。本文由两部分组成。首先,我将检查未婚成年人家庭之间的经济差异,其次,与父母共同居住的决定因素将被仔细审查。日本青年失业率的程度不像欧洲国家那么高,但人们普遍发现,青年往往是经济衰退的目标,他们面临着很高的经济风险。未婚的年轻人并不总是独自生活,而是与家人(主要是父母)合住。在日本,只有不到20%的未婚成年人独自生活,而在意大利和台湾,这一比例甚至低于日本。未婚成年人在家庭经济中所占的收入比例或多或少与家庭收入呈负相关。因此,未婚成年人在家庭中并不总是依赖父母,但在某些情况下,未婚成年人通过与父母同住来支持家庭收入,特别是在低收入群体中。未婚成年子女在家庭中的经济作用因家庭经济水平的不同而不同。在决定未婚成年人是否与父母同住时,经济因素对男性和女性都很重要。由于他们的个人收入不够高,无法组建独立的家庭,所以他们住在父母家里。这项分析中最有趣的发现是性别角色与父母的生活安排。如果母亲外出工作,未婚成年女性不太可能留在父母家中,而母亲的工作对男性没有显著影响。当未婚的女儿进入劳动力市场时,人们希望她在家庭中接替母亲的角色,因此,未婚成年人的家庭角色是有性别分配的。因此,未婚成年人的经济水平和分配家庭角色中的性别约束是决定与父母生活安排的重要因素。
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引用次数: 0
SOEP as a Source for Research on Ageing - Issues, Measures and Possibilities for Improvement 社会福利计划作为老龄化研究的来源-问题、措施和改进的可能性
Pub Date : 2009-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1452624
Laura Romeu Gordo, A. Motel-Klingebiel, S. Wurm
Demographic change is a key consequence of the development of modern societies. The prolongation of life expectancy, shifts of mortality into later life and long-term low fertility rates cause essential changes in population structures - with an increase in the number and proportion of older people as a key feature. The changes in mortality patterns can be seen as a success of modern society. But demographic shifts imply new risks and challenges as well as opportunities for modern societies, as they affect individual life courses as well as societies as a whole. The present low birth rates also predict low birth numbers in the future, since the number of potential mothers decreases. At the same time, life expectancies are not expected to decrease. As a consequence, the relation between old and young people will change in Germany in the next decades. In 2050, just about half of the population will be of working age and more than 30 percent will be 65 years old or older. The number of the 20 to under 65-year-olds will decrease from 50 million to a figure between 35 and 39 million in the next 40 years (Federal Statistical Office, 2006). Furthermore, the working age population will undergo an ageing process, implying that in 2050, nearly 40 percent of the working-age population will be between 50 and 64 years old (Federal Statistical Office, 2006). In order to understand the labour market and the fiscal implications of these population trends, it is very illustrative to analyse the proportion of older individuals in relation to the working population, the so-called old-age dependency ratio. According to the Federal Statistical Office (2006) the old-age dependency ratio will grow from 32 percent in 2005 to 60 or 64 percent by 2050. This projection indicates that in 40 years, for every three persons of working-age in Germany there will be two persons receiving a pension. If we consider the age cut at 67, the results are not much more optimistic, indicating that increasing the legal retirement age alone is not a solution for the sustainability of the public pension systems and for the decrease in the labour force. The proportion of people of very old age is also growing. While the 80 population was nearly 4 million in 2005, it will grow to 10 million by 2050 (Federal Statistical Office, 2006). This trend has inter alia, important consequences for health care provision. In this demographic context, interdisciplinary research of ageing and later life gains in relevance. Thus, research on ageing becomes an increasingly crucial task for major surveys like the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). As part of the “research infrastructure” they are called upon to invest in its potentials and attractiveness for research on ageing and later life.
人口变化是现代社会发展的一个重要结果。预期寿命的延长、死亡率向晚年转移以及长期的低生育率导致人口结构发生重大变化,其中一个主要特点是老年人的人数和比例增加。死亡率模式的变化可以被视为现代社会的成功。但是,人口结构的变化对现代社会意味着新的风险和挑战,也意味着新的机遇,因为它们影响着个人的生命历程以及整个社会。目前的低出生率也预示着未来的低出生率,因为潜在母亲的数量会减少。与此同时,预期寿命预计不会减少。因此,在未来几十年里,德国老年人和年轻人之间的关系将发生变化。到2050年,大约一半的人口将处于工作年龄,超过30%的人口将达到或超过65岁。在未来的40年里,20岁到65岁以下的人口将从5000万减少到3500万到3900万(联邦统计局,2006年)。此外,劳动年龄人口将经历一个老龄化过程,这意味着到2050年,近40%的劳动年龄人口将在50至64岁之间(联邦统计局,2006年)。为了了解劳动力市场和这些人口趋势的财政影响,分析老年人与工作人口的比例,即所谓的老年抚养比,是很能说明问题的。根据联邦统计局(2006年)的数据,老年抚养比率将从2005年的32%增长到2050年的60%或64%。这一预测表明,在40年内,德国每三个工作年龄的人将有两人领取养恤金。如果我们考虑将退休年龄降至67岁,结果也不会乐观得多,这表明仅提高法定退休年龄并不能解决公共养老金体系的可持续性和劳动力减少的问题。高龄人口的比例也在增长。而80人口在2005年接近400万,到2050年将增长到1000万(联邦统计局,2006年)。这一趋势对保健服务的提供产生了重要影响。在这种人口背景下,老龄化和晚年生活的跨学科研究具有重要意义。因此,老龄化研究成为德国社会经济小组(SOEP)等主要调查的一项日益重要的任务。作为“研究基础设施”的一部分,他们被呼吁投资于其潜力和吸引力,以研究老龄化和晚年生活。
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引用次数: 2
Do Constraints on Market Work Hours Change Home Production Efforts? 市场工作时间的限制会改变家庭生产努力吗?
Pub Date : 2009-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1372063
Geng Li
We study variations in housework time and leisure consumption when workers are subject to labor market work hours constraints that prevent them from working the optimal number of hours. Using data from two large nationwide longitudinal surveys, we first document that such constraints are widespread--about 50 percent of all households in our sample had been bound by such constraints in at least one year, highlighting the significance of studying household behaviors in labor markets under binding constraints. Our analysis reveals strong heterogeneity and asymmetry in workers' reactions to this type of market constraint that are difficult to reconcile with standard preferences and home production technology. In particular, we find that the ceilings on market work hours induce workers to increase time spent on housework, including cooking, and to reduce vacation time. In contrast, floors on market work hours do not significantly affect time spent on housework, but may boost vacation time. On net, workers constrained by hours ceilings (floors) appear to have more (less) leisure time. Meanwhile, the response to hours ceilings are more pronounced among unmarried households. We also find some evidence that the magnitude of the effects of market hours constraints increases with the persistence of these constraints. Our results are robust to a number of variations in measurement metrics, econometric specifications, sample selection criteria, and data sources. We argue that the empirical results documented in this paper can be taken as additional moments conditions against which equilibrium models with home production are calibrated.
我们研究了当工人受到劳动力市场工作时间的限制,无法达到最佳工作时间时,家务劳动时间和休闲消费的变化。利用两项大型全国性纵向调查的数据,我们首先证明了这种约束是普遍存在的——在我们的样本中,大约50%的家庭在至少一年内受到了这种约束的约束,这凸显了在约束性约束下研究劳动力市场中家庭行为的重要性。我们的分析表明,工人对这种市场约束的反应具有很强的异质性和不对称性,难以与标准偏好和家庭生产技术相协调。特别是,我们发现市场工作时间的上限促使工人增加花在家务上的时间,包括做饭,并减少休假时间。相比之下,市场上地板的工作时间对家务劳动时间没有显著影响,但可能会增加休假时间。总的来说,受工作时间限制的员工似乎有更多(更少)的闲暇时间。与此同时,对工作时间上限的反应在未婚家庭中更为明显。我们还发现一些证据表明,市场时间约束的影响程度随着这些约束的持续而增加。我们的结果对测量指标、计量经济学规范、样本选择标准和数据源的许多变化都是稳健的。我们认为,在本文中记录的经验结果可以作为额外的力矩条件,对均衡模型与家庭生产进行校准。
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引用次数: 1
Time to Work or Time to Play: The Effect of Student Employment on Homework, Housework, Screen Time, and Sleep 工作时间还是娱乐时间:学生就业对家庭作业、家务、屏幕时间和睡眠的影响
Pub Date : 2009-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1368367
C. Kalenkoski, S. Pabilonia
Recent research suggests that working while in high school reduces the amount of time students spend doing homework. However, an additional hour of work leads to a reduction in homework by much less than one hour, suggesting a reduction in other activities. This paper uses data from the 2003-2007 American Time Use Surveys (ATUS) to investigate the effects of market work on the time students spend on homework, sleeping, household work, and screen time. Results show that an increase in paid work reduces time spent in all of these activities by 84%, with the largest effect found for screen time.
最近的研究表明,在高中打工可以减少学生做作业的时间。然而,多一个小时的工作导致家庭作业减少的时间远远少于一个小时,这表明其他活动减少了。本文使用2003-2007年美国时间使用调查(ATUS)的数据来调查市场工作对学生花在家庭作业、睡眠、家务劳动和屏幕时间上的时间的影响。结果显示,有偿工作的增加使所有这些活动的时间减少了84%,其中对屏幕时间的影响最大。
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引用次数: 9
Can the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Afford to Grow Old? 东加勒比货币联盟能承受老化吗?
Pub Date : 2009-03-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451871869.001
Hunter Monroe
The demographic transition in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) now underway is rapid compared with international experience, and emigration is playing a particularly large role. This paper describes and quantifies several factors which could magnify the challenge of pension reform. First, for some ECCU countries, continued emigration at historical rates would considerably advance the projected date at which pension scheme assets are depleted. Second, there is a significant risk that assets will underperform, given the large exposures to the highly-leveraged public sector and to a lesser extent the record with private sector investments. Third, portfolio diversification away from the public sector could be complicated by age-related pressure for greater central government health spending.
与国际经验相比,东加勒比货币联盟目前正在进行的人口转型是迅速的,移民正在发挥特别大的作用。本文描述并量化了可能放大养老金改革挑战的几个因素。第一,对一些欧洲经委会国家来说,继续以历史速度移徙将大大提前养恤金计划资产耗尽的预计日期。其次,鉴于对高杠杆公共部门的大量敞口,以及在较小程度上对私人部门的投资记录,存在资产表现不佳的重大风险。第三,远离公共部门的投资组合多元化可能会因为年龄相关的中央政府加大医疗支出的压力而变得复杂。
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引用次数: 1
Family Transitions and Child Well-Being: Evidence from Adolescents 家庭转变与儿童幸福:来自青少年的证据
Pub Date : 2009-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1124122
Y. Tsai
This paper uses panel data from the National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS) for 1988-2000 to examine the effects of family transitions during the teenage years on adolescent short-term high school performance and long-term adult outcomes. To deal with the potential endogeneity problem, I use OLS and first-difference models. The distinct feature of the NELS data allows for testing the OLS and first-difference estimates. The results indicate that parental death, in the short run, is associated with low test scores and this association can be interpreted as causality. Parental separation and parental job loss, in contrast, are associated with lower educational attainment in the future.
本文使用1988-2000年国家教育纵向研究(NELS)的面板数据来检验青少年时期家庭转变对青少年短期高中表现和长期成年结果的影响。为了处理潜在的内生性问题,我使用OLS和一阶差分模型。NELS数据的独特特征允许测试OLS和第一差分估计。结果表明,在短期内,父母死亡与考试成绩低有关,这种联系可以解释为因果关系。相比之下,父母分居和父母失业与未来较低的受教育程度有关。
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引用次数: 0
Do Health Problems Reduce Consumption at Older Ages? 健康问题会减少老年人的消费吗?
Pub Date : 2009-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1371110
B. Butrica, Richard W. Johnson, Gordon B. T. Mermin
High out-of-pocket health care costs may have serious repercussions for older people and their families. If their incomes are not sufficient to cover these expenses, older adults with health problems may have to deplete their savings, turn to family and friends for financial help, or forego necessary care. Or they may be forced to reduce their consumption of other goods and services to pay their medical bills. This paper uses data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the related Consumption and Activities Mail Survey (CAMS) to examine the impact of health problems at older ages on out-of-pocket health care spending and other types of expenditures. The analysis estimates fixed effects models of total out-of-pocket health care spending, out-of-pocket health care spending exclusive of premiums, total spending on all items except health care, and total spending on all items except health care and housing. The models are estimated separately for households ages 65 and older and those ages 51 to 64.
高昂的自付医疗费用可能对老年人及其家庭产生严重影响。如果他们的收入不足以支付这些费用,有健康问题的老年人可能不得不耗尽他们的储蓄,向家人和朋友寻求经济帮助,或放弃必要的护理。或者,他们可能被迫减少其他商品和服务的消费,以支付医疗费用。本文使用健康与退休研究(HRS)和相关消费与活动邮件调查(CAMS)的数据来研究老年人健康问题对自付医疗保健支出和其他类型支出的影响。分析估计了总自付医疗保健支出、不包括保费的自付医疗保健支出、除医疗保健以外的所有项目的总支出以及除医疗保健和住房以外的所有项目的总支出的固定效应模型。这些模型分别对65岁及以上的家庭和51岁至64岁的家庭进行了估算。
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引用次数: 18
Marital Violence and Women’s Employment and Property Status: Evidence from North Indian Villages 婚姻暴力与妇女就业和财产状况:来自北印度村庄的证据
Pub Date : 2009-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1447382
M. Bhattacharya, A. Chhachhi, A. Bedi
Dominant development policy approaches recommend women’s employment on the grounds that it facilitates their empowerment, which in turn is believed to be instrumental in enhancing women’s well-being. However, empirical work on the relationship between women’s employment status and their well-being as measured by freedom from marital violence yields an ambiguous picture. Motivated by this ambiguity, this paper draws on testimonies of men and women and data gathered from rural Uttar Pradesh, to examine the effect of women’s employment and asset status as measured by their participation in paid work and their ownership of property, respectively, on spousal violence. Unlike the existing literature, we treat women’s work status and violence as simultaneously determined and find that women’s engagement in paid work and ownership of property, are associated with sharp reductions in marital violence.
占主导地位的发展政策方法建议妇女就业,理由是这有助于赋予她们权力,而这反过来又被认为有助于提高妇女的福利。然而,关于妇女的就业地位和她们的幸福之间的关系的经验性工作(以不受婚姻暴力的自由为衡量标准)得出了一个模棱两可的结论。基于这种模糊性,本文借鉴了男性和女性的证词以及从北方邦农村收集的数据,分别考察了女性的就业状况和资产状况(通过参与有偿工作和财产所有权来衡量)对配偶暴力的影响。与现有文献不同,我们认为女性的工作地位和暴力是同时决定的,并发现女性从事有偿工作和拥有财产与婚姻暴力的急剧减少有关。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family
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