Clinical Trials最新文献

A clinical trial represents a large commitment from all individuals involved and a huge financial obligation given its high cost; therefore, it is wise to make the most of all collected data by learning as much as possible. A multistate model is a generalized framework to describe longitudinal events; multistate hazards models can treat multiple intermediate/final clinical endpoints as outcomes and estimate the impact of covariates simultaneously. Proportional hazards models are fitted (one per transition), which can be used to calculate the absolute risks, that is, the probability of being in a state at a given time, the expected number of visits to a state, and the expected amount of time spent in a state. Three publicly available clinical trial datasets, colon, myeloid, and rhDNase, in the survival package in R were used to showcase the utility of multistate hazards models. In the colon dataset, a very well-known and well-used dataset, we found that the levamisole+fluorouracil treatment extended time in the recurrence-free state more than it extended overall survival, which resulted in less time in the recurrence state, an example of the classic "compression of morbidity." In the myeloid dataset, we found that complete response (CR) is durable, patients who received treatment B have longer sojourn time in CR than patients who received treatment A, while the mutation status does not impact the transition rate to CR but is highly influential on the sojourn time in CR. We also found that more patients in treatment A received transplants without CR, and more patients in treatment B received transplants after CR. In addition, the mutation status is highly influential on the CR to transplant transition rate. The observations that we made on these three datasets would not be possible without multistate models. We want to encourage readers to spend more time to look deeper into clinical trial data. It has a lot more to offer than a simple yes/no answer if only we, the statisticians, are willing to look for it.

Composite endpoints defined as the time to the earliest of two or more events are often used as primary endpoints in clinical trials. Component-wise censoring arises when different components of the composite endpoint are censored differently. We focus on a composite of death and a non-fatal event where death time is right censored and the non-fatal event time is interval censored because the event can only be detected during study visits. Such data are most often analysed using methods for right censored data, treating the time the non-fatal event was first detected as the time it occurred. This can lead to bias, particularly when the time between assessments is long. We describe several approaches for estimating the event-free survival curve and the effect of treatment on event-free survival via the hazard ratio that are specifically designed to handle component-wise censoring. We apply the methods to a randomized study of breastfeeding versus formula feeding for infants of mothers infected with human immunodeficiency virus.

Clinical trials with random assignment of treatment provide evidence about causal effects of an experimental treatment compared to standard care. However, when disease processes involve multiple types of possibly semi-competing events, specification of target estimands and causal inferences can be challenging. Intercurrent events such as study withdrawal, the introduction of rescue medication, and death further complicate matters. There has been much discussion about these issues in recent years, but guidance remains ambiguous. Some recommended approaches are formulated in terms of hypothetical settings that have little bearing in the real world. We discuss issues in formulating estimands, beginning with intercurrent events in the context of a linear model and then move on to more complex disease history processes amenable to multistate modeling. We elucidate the meaning of estimands implicit in some recommended approaches for dealing with intercurrent events and highlight the disconnect between estimands formulated in terms of potential outcomes and the real world.

Duration of response is an important endpoint used in drug development. Prolonged duration for response is often viewed as an early indication of treatment efficacy. However, there are numerous difficulties in studying the distribution of duration of response based on observed data subject to right censoring in practice. The most important obstacle is that the distribution of the duration of response is in general not identifiable in the presence of censoring due to the simple fact that there is no information on the joint distribution of time to response and time to progression beyond the largest follow-up time. In this article, we introduce the restricted duration of response as a replacement of the conventional duration of response. The distribution of restricted duration of response is estimable and we have proposed several nonparametric estimators in this article. The corresponding inference procedure and additional downstream analysis have been developed. Extensive numerical simulations have been conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. It appears that a new regression-based two-step estimator for the survival function of the restricted duration of response tends to have a robust and superior performance, and we recommend its use in practice. A real data example from oncology has been used to illustrate the analysis for restricted duration of response.

Treatment noncompliance and censoring are two common complications in clinical trials. Motivated by the ADAPTABLE pragmatic clinical trial, we develop methods for assessing treatment effects in the presence of treatment noncompliance with a right-censored survival outcome. We classify the participants into principal strata, defined by their joint potential compliance status under treatment and control. We propose a multiply robust estimator for the causal effects on the survival probability scale within each principal stratum. This estimator is consistent even if one, sometimes two, of the four working models-on the treatment assignment, the principal strata, censoring, and the outcome-is misspecified. A sensitivity analysis strategy is developed to address violations of key identification assumptions, the principal ignorability and monotonicity. We apply the proposed approach to the ADAPTABLE trial to study the causal effect of taking low- versus high-dosage aspirin on all-cause mortality and hospitalization from cardiovascular diseases.

The win ratio has been increasingly used in trials with hierarchical composite endpoints. While the outcomes involved and the rule for their comparisons vary with the application, there is invariably little attention to the estimand of the resulting statistic, causing difficulties in interpretation and cross-trial comparison. We make the case for articulating the estimand as a first step to win ratio analysis and establish that the root cause for its elusiveness is its intrinsic dependency on the time frame of comparison, which, if left unspecified, is set haphazardly by trial-specific censoring. From the statistical literature, we summarize two general approaches to overcome this uncertainty-a nonparametric one that pre-specifies the time frame for all comparisons, and a semiparametric one that posits a constant win ratio across all times-each with publicly available software and real examples. Finally, we discuss unsolved challenges, such as estimand construction and inference in the presence of intercurrent events.

Background/aims: Including women of childbearing age in a clinical trial makes it necessary to consider two factors from a bioethical perspective: first, the lack of knowledge about the potential teratogenic effects of an investigational product, and also, the principle of justice not to exclude any population from the benefits of research. The most common way to address this issue is by requiring volunteers to use contraceptives before, during, and a few weeks after the clinical trial. This work presents all the strategies used to promote contraception use and prevent pregnancy during the Alzheimer's Prevention Initiative Autosomal-Dominant Alzheimer's Disease (API ADAD) Colombia clinical trial. Two characteristics of this trial make it of special interest for closely monitoring contraception use. One is that the trial lasted more than 7 years, and the other is that participants could be carriers of the E280A PSEN1 mutation, leading to a mild cognitive impairment as early as their late 30s.

Methods: An individual medical evaluation to select the contraception method that best fits the volunteer was carried out during the screening visit, remitting to the gynecologist when necessary. All non-surgical contraception methods were supplied by the sponsor. Staff were trained on contraception counseling, correctly dispensing contraceptive drugs to volunteers, and identifying, reporting, and following up on pregnancies. Two comprehensive educational campaigns on contraception use were performed, and the intervention included all volunteers. In addition, volunteers were asked on an annual survey to evaluate the dispensing procedure. Finally, the effectiveness of these strategies was retrospectively evaluated, comparing by extrapolation the number of pregnancies presented throughout the trial with the General Fertility Rate in Colombia.

Results: A total of 159 female volunteers were recruited. All strategies were implemented as planned, even during the COVID-19 contingency. Ten pregnancies occurred during the evaluation period (2015-2021). Two were planned; the rest were associated with a potential therapeutic failure or incorrect use of contraceptive methods for a contraceptive failure of 0.49% per year. Sixty percent of pregnancies led to an abortion, either miscarriage or therapeutic abortion. However, there was not enough data to associate the pregnancy outcome with the administration of the investigational product. Finally, we observed a lower fertility rate in women participating in the trial compared to the Colombian population.

Conclusion: The lower rates of contraceptive failure and the decrease in the incidence of pregnancies in women participating in the trial compared to the Colombian population across the 7 years of evaluation suggest that the strategies used in API ADAD Colombia were adequate and effective in addressing contraception use.