Ruhui Huang, Kay McMonigal, Fanglou Liao, Jianyu Hu
Relative roles of wind stress and buoyancy forcing in shaping Pacific circulation and sea level remain unclear. Using large-ensemble simulations from Community Earth System Model version 2, we disentangle the contributions of wind and buoyancy fluxes during 1960–2014. Wind stress accounts for 81% of barotropic circulation changes and explains 54% of regional sea-level trend, while buoyancy forcing contributes 19% of barotropic circulation changes but 46% of regional sea-level trend. Circulation changes diagnosed from the barotropic stream function match estimations from the Sverdrup stream function, underscoring the reliability of wind-driven frameworks. Wind stress drives ocean heat redistribution through meridional transport and subduction, inducing sea-level rise along the poleward flanks of subtropical gyres. Buoyancy forcing partially offsets wind-driven changes in the North Pacific, while exerting a weaker but synergistic influence in the South Pacific. These findings highlight the dominant yet regionally modulated role of wind stress in shaping Pacific circulation and sea level.
{"title":"Disentangling Wind- and Buoyancy-Driven Changes in Pacific Barotropic Circulation and Regional Sea Level During 1960–2014","authors":"Ruhui Huang, Kay McMonigal, Fanglou Liao, Jianyu Hu","doi":"10.1029/2025gl119899","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119899","url":null,"abstract":"Relative roles of wind stress and buoyancy forcing in shaping Pacific circulation and sea level remain unclear. Using large-ensemble simulations from Community Earth System Model version 2, we disentangle the contributions of wind and buoyancy fluxes during 1960–2014. Wind stress accounts for 81% of barotropic circulation changes and explains 54% of regional sea-level trend, while buoyancy forcing contributes 19% of barotropic circulation changes but 46% of regional sea-level trend. Circulation changes diagnosed from the barotropic stream function match estimations from the Sverdrup stream function, underscoring the reliability of wind-driven frameworks. Wind stress drives ocean heat redistribution through meridional transport and subduction, inducing sea-level rise along the poleward flanks of subtropical gyres. Buoyancy forcing partially offsets wind-driven changes in the North Pacific, while exerting a weaker but synergistic influence in the South Pacific. These findings highlight the dominant yet regionally modulated role of wind stress in shaping Pacific circulation and sea level.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147329829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Short-Term Variability of Jupiter's Satellite Footprints as Spotted by JWST","authors":"Katie L. Knowles, H. Melin, T. S. Stallard, L. Moore, J. O’Donoghue, C. Schmidt, J. R. Szalay, P. I. Tiranti, K. Roberts, R. E. Johnson, E. M. Thomas","doi":"10.1029/2025gl118553","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118553","url":null,"abstract":"We present the main Alfvén wing (MAW) spots of Io and Europa as observed by the Near-Infrared Spectrograph onboard the James Webb Space Telescope. These auroral footprint features have been measured previously, but only in emission. Here, the derived ionospheric <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/ac6c27ef-a269-424b-b545-43266ebe1d65/grl72137-math-0001.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"10\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/grl72137-math-0001.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msubsup data-semantic-children=\"0,1,2\" data-semantic-collapsed=\"(4 (3 0 1) 2)\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal upper H 3 Superscript plus\" data-semantic-type=\"subsup\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\"vertical-align: -0.297em; margin-left: 0px;\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"addition\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\" size=\"s\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-spacer style=\"margin-top: 0.18em;\"></mjx-spacer><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\" size=\"s\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-script></mjx-msubsup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl72137:grl72137-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl72137-math-0001.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msubsup data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"0,1,2\" data-semantic-collapsed=\"(4 (3 0 1) 2)\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal upper H 3 Superscript plus\" data-semantic-type=\"subsup\"><mi data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\" mathvariant=\"normal\">H</mi><mn data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\">3</mn><mo data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"addition\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\">+</mo></msubsup></mrow>${mathrm{H}}_{3}^{+}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container> emission, temperature and column density are reported, as well as <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/fa342ac4-1038-407d-b9e1-a98954519f9c/grl72137-math-0002.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"11\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"87 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147329826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tianyu Cui, Wei Wang, John E. Vidale, Hao Zhang, Hao Luo, Yinshuang Ai
Temporal changes near the core-mantle boundary (CMB) would trigger insights into ongoing thermal and chemical interactions between the Earth's core and mantle. Here, we search for multidecadal temporal changes in the CMB topography and heterogeneity using waveform similarity analysis of core-reflected phases (PcP, ScP, and ScS) from global repeating earthquakes. Most well-resolved observations reveal no temporal changes; however, we observe clear PcP waveform difference in the last event of a repeating earthquake triplet sampling the region beneath Siberia. Seismic array analysis indicates that this discrepancy results from interference from a local earthquake, which can easily be misinterpreted as a CMB-related changes. These findings suggest that dynamical evolution at the CMB either occurs over timescales longer than several decades; any faster transient processes remain invisible to current seismic detection limits.
{"title":"Decadal Stability of Multi-Scale Core-Mantle Boundary in Core-Reflections of Repeating Earthquakes","authors":"Tianyu Cui, Wei Wang, John E. Vidale, Hao Zhang, Hao Luo, Yinshuang Ai","doi":"10.1029/2025gl119930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119930","url":null,"abstract":"Temporal changes near the core-mantle boundary (CMB) would trigger insights into ongoing thermal and chemical interactions between the Earth's core and mantle. Here, we search for multidecadal temporal changes in the CMB topography and heterogeneity using waveform similarity analysis of core-reflected phases (PcP, ScP, and ScS) from global repeating earthquakes. Most well-resolved observations reveal no temporal changes; however, we observe clear PcP waveform difference in the last event of a repeating earthquake triplet sampling the region beneath Siberia. Seismic array analysis indicates that this discrepancy results from interference from a local earthquake, which can easily be misinterpreted as a CMB-related changes. These findings suggest that dynamical evolution at the CMB either occurs over timescales longer than several decades; any faster transient processes remain invisible to current seismic detection limits.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147329827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cong Ji, Cunrui Han, Xinglu Wang, Götz Bokelmann, Zhouchuan Huang
Craton evolution plays a fundamental role in stabilizing the continental lithosphere and the long-term evolution of Earth's surface environment. The Shanxi Rift Zone (SRZ) within the North China Craton marks an ongoing craton destruction. Detailed lithospheric structure is essential to explain craton destruction. To better understand its mechanism, we investigated the anisotropic lithospheric structure of the SRZ using surface-wave Eikonal tomography. The results reveal strong north–south contrasts. In the northern SRZ, strong low-velocity anomalies with weak azimuthal anisotropy are revealed in the upper mantle under the Datong volcano, implying strong mantle upwelling. In the central SRZ, the lithosphere shows higher velocity and consistent E-W anisotropy across the rift, indicating little thermal effect. We attribute these variations, particularly the thermal structure, to Paleozoic subduction of the Paleo-Asian Ocean along the northern margin of the craton, leading to a feasible environment for later magmatic underplating induced by the Pacific subduction.
{"title":"Differential Craton Destruction Controlled by Fossil Structures in the Central North China Craton","authors":"Cong Ji, Cunrui Han, Xinglu Wang, Götz Bokelmann, Zhouchuan Huang","doi":"10.1029/2025gl119472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119472","url":null,"abstract":"Craton evolution plays a fundamental role in stabilizing the continental lithosphere and the long-term evolution of Earth's surface environment. The Shanxi Rift Zone (SRZ) within the North China Craton marks an ongoing craton destruction. Detailed lithospheric structure is essential to explain craton destruction. To better understand its mechanism, we investigated the anisotropic lithospheric structure of the SRZ using surface-wave Eikonal tomography. The results reveal strong north–south contrasts. In the northern SRZ, strong low-velocity anomalies with weak azimuthal anisotropy are revealed in the upper mantle under the Datong volcano, implying strong mantle upwelling. In the central SRZ, the lithosphere shows higher velocity and consistent E-W anisotropy across the rift, indicating little thermal effect. We attribute these variations, particularly the thermal structure, to Paleozoic subduction of the Paleo-Asian Ocean along the northern margin of the craton, leading to a feasible environment for later magmatic underplating induced by the Pacific subduction.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147330056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jihong Moon, Daehyun Kim, Karthik Balaguru, L. Ruby Leung, Eunkyo Seo
Tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is driven by complex interactions of TCs with multiple environmental factors. Using observations and two HighResMIP models (CNRM-CM6-1-HR and HadGEM3-GC31-HM) that better simulate TCRI, we examine how six environmental factors jointly influence TCRI. Observations show that while TCRI occurrence probability increases with the number of supportive conditions, it is strongly suppressed when even a few unsupportive ones are present. For the same number of supportive conditions, the number of unsupportive conditions largely controls the TCRI occurrence. In the models, the sensitivity of TCRI occurrence frequency to the number of supportive and unsupportive conditions is found to be weaker than the observed, caused by unrealistic representation of the effect of vertical wind shear and low free-troposphere humidity on TCRI. Our results emphasize that unsupportive environmental conditions must be explicitly considered alongside supportive ones when diagnosing and predicting RI.
{"title":"Joint Influence of Supportive and Unsupportive Environmental Conditions on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in Two HighResMIP Simulations","authors":"Jihong Moon, Daehyun Kim, Karthik Balaguru, L. Ruby Leung, Eunkyo Seo","doi":"10.1029/2025gl119986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119986","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is driven by complex interactions of TCs with multiple environmental factors. Using observations and two HighResMIP models (CNRM-CM6-1-HR and HadGEM3-GC31-HM) that better simulate TCRI, we examine how six environmental factors jointly influence TCRI. Observations show that while TCRI occurrence probability increases with the number of supportive conditions, it is strongly suppressed when even a few unsupportive ones are present. For the same number of supportive conditions, the number of unsupportive conditions largely controls the TCRI occurrence. In the models, the sensitivity of TCRI occurrence frequency to the number of supportive and unsupportive conditions is found to be weaker than the observed, caused by unrealistic representation of the effect of vertical wind shear and low free-troposphere humidity on TCRI. Our results emphasize that unsupportive environmental conditions must be explicitly considered alongside supportive ones when diagnosing and predicting RI.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"99 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147329824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Giovanni Durante, Julio Sheinbaum, Alejandro Domínguez-Guadarrama, Julien Jouanno, Luna Hiron, Uwe Send, Homar Verdugo-Ortega, Angel Ruiz-Angulo
We report the recurrent formation of waters with thermohaline properties similar to Gulf Common Water (GCW) in the western Yucatan Channel, absent upstream in the Caribbean. Mooring observations and a partial submesoscale-resolving model show that these Yucatan GCW forms locally when the Yucatan Current separates from the slope, intensifying a frontal zone with isopycnal uplift, cyclonic vorticity, and sharp lateral gradients, signatures of submesoscale activity. These conditions favor interleaving and mixing among Caribbean inflow waters within a vertically compressed isopycnal layer. Lagrangian backtracking confirms their local origin, while forward tracking reveals export within cyclonic frontal eddies along the Loop Current periphery. Our findings uncover a previously unrecognized pathway of water-mass transformation in the Yucatan Channel and highlight its potential implications for Loop Current variability.
{"title":"Frontal-Driven Water-Mass Transformation in a Western Boundary Current: Evidence From the Yucatan Current","authors":"Giovanni Durante, Julio Sheinbaum, Alejandro Domínguez-Guadarrama, Julien Jouanno, Luna Hiron, Uwe Send, Homar Verdugo-Ortega, Angel Ruiz-Angulo","doi":"10.1029/2025gl119064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119064","url":null,"abstract":"We report the recurrent formation of waters with thermohaline properties similar to Gulf Common Water (GCW) in the western Yucatan Channel, absent upstream in the Caribbean. Mooring observations and a partial submesoscale-resolving model show that these Yucatan GCW forms locally when the Yucatan Current separates from the slope, intensifying a frontal zone with isopycnal uplift, cyclonic vorticity, and sharp lateral gradients, signatures of submesoscale activity. These conditions favor interleaving and mixing among Caribbean inflow waters within a vertically compressed isopycnal layer. Lagrangian backtracking confirms their local origin, while forward tracking reveals export within cyclonic frontal eddies along the Loop Current periphery. Our findings uncover a previously unrecognized pathway of water-mass transformation in the Yucatan Channel and highlight its potential implications for Loop Current variability.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"353 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147319723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joaquin Julve, Åke Fagereng, Giovanni Toffol, Kohtaro Ujiie
Interactions between upper plate deformation and plate interface seismicity in subduction zones remain poorly understood, but growing evidence indicates that fluid flow along splay faults modulates upper-plate faulting. Field observations from two exhumed splay faults define end-member scenarios where impermeable faults trap fluids in their footwall, whereas permeable faults channel fluids along them. Using finite element poroelastic models, with slip mode inferred solely from stress–pore-fluid pressure patterns, we define two end-member behaviors: (a) Impermeable, clay-rich, mature splay faults favor footwall fluid flow, promoting low differential stress, dilation, and vein formation in the upper plate, while reducing pore-fluid pressure and coupling the megathrust downdip of the intersection. (b) Permeable, less mature faults allow distributed upper-plate fluid flow, increasing fluid flux, and differential stress, while maintaining plate interface overpressure and promoting creep. These models provide a framework for prism-scale effects of splay fault permeability on shallow subduction zone deformation and seismicity.
{"title":"Splay Fault Permeability Governs Fluid–Structure Interaction in Accretionary Wedges","authors":"Joaquin Julve, Åke Fagereng, Giovanni Toffol, Kohtaro Ujiie","doi":"10.1029/2025gl120143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120143","url":null,"abstract":"Interactions between upper plate deformation and plate interface seismicity in subduction zones remain poorly understood, but growing evidence indicates that fluid flow along splay faults modulates upper-plate faulting. Field observations from two exhumed splay faults define end-member scenarios where impermeable faults trap fluids in their footwall, whereas permeable faults channel fluids along them. Using finite element poroelastic models, with slip mode inferred solely from stress–pore-fluid pressure patterns, we define two end-member behaviors: (a) Impermeable, clay-rich, mature splay faults favor footwall fluid flow, promoting low differential stress, dilation, and vein formation in the upper plate, while reducing pore-fluid pressure and coupling the megathrust downdip of the intersection. (b) Permeable, less mature faults allow distributed upper-plate fluid flow, increasing fluid flux, and differential stress, while maintaining plate interface overpressure and promoting creep. These models provide a framework for prism-scale effects of splay fault permeability on shallow subduction zone deformation and seismicity.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"98 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147319719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xiaoyi Shen, Yubin Fan, Stephen J. Livingstone, Chang-Qing Ke
The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission provides a powerful data set for monitoring global surface water resources. However, its performance for monitoring ice-marginal lakes in Greenland remains unknown. Due to the scarcity of in situ measurements, this study evaluated the reliability of ice-marginal lake elevations derived from the SWOT Water Mask Raster Product by comparing to ICESat-2 LiDAR altimeter data. Results show that across 204 near-contemporaneous water level points for 110 lakes, the average deviation between SWOT and ICESat-2 was 0.03 m, with a root mean square deviation of 1.43 m, showing a good agreement. The higher temporal resolution of SWOT (<21 days over Greenland) enabled better monitoring of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), with a 100% increase in the number of GLOFs detected compared to ICESat-2 between 2023 and 2024. These advantages make SWOT an excellent data source for monitoring ice-marginal lakes around the Greenland Ice Sheet.
{"title":"Assessment of SWOT for Monitoring Ice-Marginal Lake Water Levels in Greenland","authors":"Xiaoyi Shen, Yubin Fan, Stephen J. Livingstone, Chang-Qing Ke","doi":"10.1029/2025gl120513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120513","url":null,"abstract":"The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission provides a powerful data set for monitoring global surface water resources. However, its performance for monitoring ice-marginal lakes in Greenland remains unknown. Due to the scarcity of in situ measurements, this study evaluated the reliability of ice-marginal lake elevations derived from the SWOT Water Mask Raster Product by comparing to ICESat-2 LiDAR altimeter data. Results show that across 204 near-contemporaneous water level points for 110 lakes, the average deviation between SWOT and ICESat-2 was 0.03 m, with a root mean square deviation of 1.43 m, showing a good agreement. The higher temporal resolution of SWOT (<21 days over Greenland) enabled better monitoring of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), with a 100% increase in the number of GLOFs detected compared to ICESat-2 between 2023 and 2024. These advantages make SWOT an excellent data source for monitoring ice-marginal lakes around the Greenland Ice Sheet.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147320179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Classical relationships between cumulative and maximum seismic moment, based on the Gutenberg-Richter law, shows a non-physical anomaly for low b-values. We here derive new relationships, including a low and a high b-value approximation. We apply these theoretical relationships to a comprehensive set of 17 induced seismic sequences, by examining the growth of the released seismicity with the injected volume. While the event number is found to be directly proportional to the volume, the cumulative and maximum seismic moment depends on the volume with an exponent that depends at first order on the b-value. This is confirmed by the theoretical relationships we derived, and shows that the injected volume primarily controls seismic nucleation and therefore the seismic rate of occurrence. The magnitude dependence on b-value, which is not considered in most moment-volume relationships, may have a significant impact on earthquake magnitude forecasting for monitoring purposes.
{"title":"Theoretical Maximum and Cumulative Seismic Moment Relationships Confirm that Injection Volume Controls the Occurrence Rate, But Not the Magnitude, of Induced Earthquakes","authors":"L. De Barros, D. Marsan","doi":"10.1029/2025gl117164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117164","url":null,"abstract":"Classical relationships between cumulative and maximum seismic moment, based on the Gutenberg-Richter law, shows a non-physical anomaly for low <i>b</i>-values. We here derive new relationships, including a low and a high <i>b</i>-value approximation. We apply these theoretical relationships to a comprehensive set of 17 induced seismic sequences, by examining the growth of the released seismicity with the injected volume. While the event number is found to be directly proportional to the volume, the cumulative and maximum seismic moment depends on the volume with an exponent that depends at first order on the <i>b</i>-value. This is confirmed by the theoretical relationships we derived, and shows that the injected volume primarily controls seismic nucleation and therefore the seismic rate of occurrence. The magnitude dependence on <i>b</i>-value, which is not considered in most moment-volume relationships, may have a significant impact on earthquake magnitude forecasting for monitoring purposes.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147319725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wenjing Zhang, Zijie Zhao, Alistair J. Hobday, Neil J. Holbrook
Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—discrete and prolonged warm ocean temperature extremes—can pose serious threats to marine ecosystems. While the previous work of authors has highlighted the diversity of MHWs, future changes in six representative MHW types, under different climate change scenarios, are unknown. Here, we analyze changes in MHW diversity projected for the late 21st century using multi-model ensembles from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Our results show that under the normal-emission scenario, annual occurrence days of bimodal MHWs keep increasing, while those of the other five types rise early but level off around 2050. Under the high-emission scenario, annual occurrence days of three long, intense types keep rising, whereas the other three decline after mid-century. We further find that higher-intensity MHWs are increasingly associated with bimodal events. Spatially, MHW distributions shift toward bimodal dominance, with nearly all ocean regions projected to be governed by bimodal types by mid-century under the both scenarios. Improved understanding of these projected shifts is critical for informing marine conservation planning and climate adaptation strategies in ocean ecosystems.
{"title":"Projected Global Diversity of Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century","authors":"Wenjing Zhang, Zijie Zhao, Alistair J. Hobday, Neil J. Holbrook","doi":"10.1029/2025gl120526","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120526","url":null,"abstract":"Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—discrete and prolonged warm ocean temperature extremes—can pose serious threats to marine ecosystems. While the previous work of authors has highlighted the diversity of MHWs, future changes in six representative MHW types, under different climate change scenarios, are unknown. Here, we analyze changes in MHW diversity projected for the late 21st century using multi-model ensembles from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Our results show that under the normal-emission scenario, annual occurrence days of bimodal MHWs keep increasing, while those of the other five types rise early but level off around 2050. Under the high-emission scenario, annual occurrence days of three long, intense types keep rising, whereas the other three decline after mid-century. We further find that higher-intensity MHWs are increasingly associated with bimodal events. Spatially, MHW distributions shift toward bimodal dominance, with nearly all ocean regions projected to be governed by bimodal types by mid-century under the both scenarios. Improved understanding of these projected shifts is critical for informing marine conservation planning and climate adaptation strategies in ocean ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147334704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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