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Characteristics of vegetation carbon sink carrying capacity and restoration potential of China in recent 40 years 近40年中国植被碳汇承载能力及恢复潜力特征
3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-26 DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1266688
Luhua Wu, Yun Zhang, Guangjie Luo, Dan Chen, Dongni Yang, Yifan Yang, Fengxia Tian
Improving vegetation carbon sink is a key measure for China to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. However, the gradual saturation of vegetation carbon fixation under the constraints of climate change and human activities has limited the long-term and sustainable growth of vegetation carbon sinks, resulting in significant uncertainty in understanding future carbon sink capacity and recovery potential. In this study, NPP has been selected as a carbon sink indicator to quantitatively evaluated the carbon sink carrying capacity (CSCC) and the carbon sink resilience (CSR) of China. Results demonstrated that (1) the NPP of vegetation cover areas in China exhibited an increasing trend from 1981 to 2018, with an average growth rate of 1.66 g C m −2 yr. −1 and a total net NPP increase of 0.32 P g C. (2) The average CSCC in China was 658.59 g C m −2 yr. −1 , with a total amount of 4.13 Pg C yr. −1 . The NPP exceeded 60% of CSCC in various years, and the total NPP in 2018 was 3.26 Pg C yr. −1 , which reached 78.74% of CSCC. In the future, carbon sink that can be increased is 0.88 Pg C yr. −1 , with an increase proportion of 21.26%. (3) From 2000 to 2018, the NPP of vegetation-covered area (VCA) in China had generally maintained a positive succession trend with the stronger CSR. Only four provinces (HUN, CQ, AH, and JS) in China showed the extremely strong levels of CSR. The study has revealed the huge and sustainable CSCC and restoration potential in China over the past 40 years, and has provided spatial positioning and theoretical guidance for future ecological carbon sink restoration and benefit assessment.
改善植被碳汇是中国实现碳中和目标的关键措施。然而,在气候变化和人类活动的约束下,植被碳固定逐渐饱和,限制了植被碳汇的长期可持续增长,导致对未来碳汇容量和恢复潜力的认识存在很大的不确定性。本研究选择NPP作为碳汇指标,对中国的碳汇承载能力(CSCC)和碳汇弹性(CSR)进行定量评价。结果表明:(1)1981 ~ 2018年,中国植被覆盖区NPP呈增加趋势,平均增长率为1.66 g C m−2 yr.−1,净NPP总量增加0.32 Pg C.−1;(2)中国平均CSCC为658.59 g C m−2 yr.−1,总量为4.13 Pg C. yr.−1。NPP历年均超过CSCC的60%,2018年总NPP为3.26 Pg C - 1,达到CSCC的78.74%。未来可增加的碳汇为0.88 Pg C / r.−1,增加比例为21.26%。(3) 2000 - 2018年,中国植被覆盖面积NPP总体上保持正演替趋势,CSR越强。在中国,只有四个省份(湖南、重庆、河南和JS)表现出极强的企业社会责任水平。该研究揭示了中国近40年来巨大的可持续碳汇恢复潜力,为未来生态碳汇恢复和效益评价提供了空间定位和理论指导。
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引用次数: 0
Increase in Arctic Oscillations explains most interannual variability in Russia’s wildfires 北极振荡的增加解释了俄罗斯野火的大部分年际变化
3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1188057
Andrei G. Lapenis, Leonid N. Yurganov
Over the past two decades, the escalating emissions of greenhouse gases from boreal wildfires in the Northern Hemisphere have drawn significant attention, underscoring an unprecedented wildfire season in 2021. Our calculations indicate that between 2002 and 2020, wildfires in Russia released approximately 726 ± 280 Tg CO 2eqv yr −1 . This aligns closely with similar estimates derived from remote sensing data, far surpassing the earlier approximations found in the Russian National Inventory Report (NIR) by a factor of 2 to 3. Notably, in 2021 alone, Russia’s wildfires emitted an exceptionally high amount of 1,700 Tg CO 2eqv , exceeding the carbon emissions from the country’s fossil fuel consumption. Consequently, this situation led to an almost complete counterbalance of carbon assimilation by Russian forests. Our analysis attributes over 50% of the variation in wildfire frequency between 2002 and 2021 to shifts in the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This suggests a potential for utilizing AO as a predictive variable for wildfires. It’s noteworthy that the AO itself is influenced by the sustained regression of Arctic sea-ice. From this, it can be inferred that in the foreseeable future, Russian forests might undergo a transition from their role as carbon sinks to the potential net contributors of carbon to the atmosphere.
在过去二十年中,北半球北方野火造成的温室气体排放不断增加,引起了人们的极大关注,突显了2021年前所未有的野火季节。我们的计算表明,在2002年至2020年期间,俄罗斯的野火释放了大约726±280 Tg CO 2eqv yr - 1。这与从遥感数据得出的类似估计值密切一致,远远超过俄罗斯国家清单报告(NIR)中发现的较早的近似值,高出2至3倍。值得注意的是,仅在2021年,俄罗斯的野火就排放了异常高的1,700 Tg CO 2eqv,超过了该国化石燃料消耗的碳排放量。因此,这种情况导致俄罗斯森林的碳吸收几乎完全平衡。我们的分析将2002年至2021年间野火频率变化的50%以上归因于北极涛动(AO)的变化。这表明有可能利用AO作为野火的预测变量。值得注意的是,AO本身受到北极海冰持续消退的影响。由此可以推断,在可预见的未来,俄罗斯森林可能经历从碳汇角色向大气碳的潜在净贡献者的转变。
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引用次数: 0
Mountain protective forests under threat? an in-depth review of global change impacts on their protective effect against natural hazards 山地防护林受到威胁?深入审查全球变化对其抵御自然灾害的保护作用的影响
3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-22 DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1223934
Christine Moos, Ana Stritih, Michaela Teich, Alessandra Bottero
Forests in mountain areas provide an indispensable ecosystem service by protecting people and infrastructure against natural hazards. As forests are increasingly affected by global change, including climate change, more frequent and severe natural disturbances, and shifts in land use, open questions remain regarding the long-term and sustainable provision of this crucial protective service. To improve our understanding of the various effects of global change on protective forests, we summarized the current knowledge based on a systematic review. Focusing on changes in mountain forests’ protective effect against snow avalanches, landslides, rockfall, torrential floods and debris flow, we assessed 72 peer-reviewed, English publications. Overall, climate-induced changes are expected to increase forests’ protective effect at higher elevations but reduce it at lower elevations mainly due to increased drought. Natural disturbances usually decrease the protective effect of forests, and their impact is often further exacerbated by salvage logging. Different forest management strategies are often studied using forest simulation models, and their impacts on protective forests strongly depend on the local context and interactions with climate change. While clearcuts consistently reduce the protective effect, other forest management interventions such as thinning can have either positive or negative effects. Most of the reviewed studies were case studies based on forest simulation or process-based hazard models (but rarely combining the two), while empirical evidence was scarce. Forests’ protective effect is often assessed using (diverse) indicators of forest structure, but evaluations of resulting risks are less common. More consistent modeling approaches linking forest structure to hazard and risk, as well as consistent indicators across different case studies, are needed for a better understanding of changes in protective forests and the service they provide under global change.
山区的森林通过保护人民和基础设施免受自然灾害的影响,提供了不可或缺的生态系统服务。由于森林日益受到包括气候变化在内的全球变化、更频繁和严重的自然干扰以及土地利用变化的影响,在长期和可持续地提供这一至关重要的保护服务方面仍然存在悬而未决的问题。为了提高我们对全球变化对保护林的各种影响的认识,我们在系统回顾的基础上总结了目前的知识。我们关注山林对雪崩、滑坡、落石、洪水和泥石流的保护作用的变化,评估了72份经过同行评审的英文出版物。总体而言,气候引起的变化预计将在高海拔地区增加森林的保护作用,但在低海拔地区减少森林的保护作用,主要原因是干旱增加。自然干扰通常会降低森林的保护作用,而其影响往往因抢救性采伐而进一步加剧。不同的森林管理策略经常使用森林模拟模型进行研究,它们对保护林的影响在很大程度上取决于当地环境及其与气候变化的相互作用。虽然砍伐森林不断降低保护作用,但其他森林管理干预措施,如疏林,可能产生积极或消极的影响。大多数审查的研究都是基于森林模拟或基于过程的危害模型的个案研究(但很少将两者结合起来),而经验证据很少。森林的保护作用通常是用森林结构的(多种)指标来评估的,但对由此产生的风险的评估却不太常见。为了更好地了解防护林的变化及其在全球变化下提供的服务,需要将森林结构与危害和风险联系起来的更加一致的建模方法,以及不同案例研究中的一致指标。
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引用次数: 0
Collective forest tenure reform and forest conditions: evidence from the social-ecological system in Southwest China 集体林权制度改革与森林状况:来自西南地区社会生态系统的证据
3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-22 DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1162058
Wenqing Li, Jiahui Chen, Fengwen Wu, Zhiming Zhang
China’s recent collective forest tenure reform (CFTR) aims to improve forest conditions by devolution of forest management rights from community collectives to individual households. Studies reveal substantial local variation in CFTR implementation, but the ecological effects and underlying mechanism have received little attention. Our study focused on community-managed forests and household-managed forests in four communities located in the mountains of Southwest China. The objective was to investigate the relationship between CFTR and forest conditions at the local scale. We employed a combination of remote sensing technology, field forest observations and socioeconomic surveys to gather data for analysis. The results showed that the forest cover change trends of collective forests and household forests in each community were consistent from 1994 to 2014. There was no significant relationship between CFTR implementation and local-level differences in species diversity and soil fertility in forests. The aboveground biomass of collective forests was significantly higher than that of household forests. Differentiated access and use, low compensation amounts, and loose payment terms jointly affected CFTR’s effectiveness to improve local-scale forest conditions in the study area. Attempts to formalize forest tenure rights must be flexible enough and adapted to the local environment so that changes induced by the CFTR can improve local access to forest resources and its benefits.
中国最近的集体林权改革(CFTR)旨在通过将森林经营权从社区集体下放到个体家庭来改善森林状况。研究表明,CFTR的实施存在很大的地方差异,但生态效应和潜在机制却很少受到关注。本研究以中国西南山区4个社区的社区经营森林和家庭经营森林为研究对象。目的是在地方尺度上调查CFTR与森林条件之间的关系。我们采用遥感技术、野外森林观测和社会经济调查相结合的方式收集数据进行分析。结果表明:1994 - 2014年各群落集体林和家庭林的森林覆盖变化趋势基本一致;CFTR的实施与森林物种多样性和土壤肥力的局地差异无显著相关。集体林的地上生物量显著高于家庭林。不同的获取和利用、低补偿金额和宽松的支付条件共同影响了CFTR改善研究区局地森林状况的有效性。将森林权属正式化的努力必须足够灵活,并适应当地环境,以便CFTR引起的变化能够改善当地获得森林资源及其利益的机会。
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引用次数: 0
Silvicultural treatments improve pest and disease conditions of white pine (Pinus strobus) residual trees and regeneration 造林处理改善了白松残树病虫害状况和再生
3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-22 DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1239835
Isabel Alvarez Munck, Mariko Yamasaki, Jon Janelle
Managing multiple forest insect pests and diseases is challenging. For example, in eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus ) stands whereas partial shading and high seedling density is encouraged to reduce damage by white pine blister rust ( Cronartium ribicola ) and white pine weevil ( Pissodes strobi ), dense conditions in the understory may increase damage by foliar diseases such as brown spot needle blight ( Lecanosticta acicola ) and Caliciopsis canker ( Caliciopsis pinea ). We evaluated the effect of silvicultural treatments, shelterwoods (residual basal area < 18 m 2 ha −1 ), low density thinnings (residual basal area ≤ 14 m 2 ha −1 ), patch cuts (1.2 ha openings), and untreated controls on damage by these insect pest and diseases in residual overstory trees and regeneration. Shelterwoods and low density thinnings provided a good balance of some shading and reduced stem density, which resulted in less weevil damage and foliar disease severity. Crown condition and quality of regeneration was better in all treatments compared to unmanaged controls. Shelterwoods, low density thinnings and patch cuts have the added benefit on increasing seral habitat, resulting in greater songbird diversity.
管理多种森林病虫害具有挑战性。例如,在东部白松林分,虽然鼓励部分遮阳和高幼苗密度以减少白松水疱锈病(Cronartium ribicola)和白松象牙虫(Pissodes strobi)的危害,但林下茂密的条件可能会增加褐斑针叶枯病(Lecanosticta acicola)和Caliciopsis canker (Caliciopsis pinea)等叶面疾病的危害。评价了不同造林措施、防护林(残基面积;18平方米2公顷−1),低密度疏林(剩余基材面积≤14平方米2公顷−1),斑块切割(1.2公顷的开口),以及未经处理的控制这些病虫害对剩余上层树木的损害和更新。防护林和低密度疏林在一定程度上平衡了遮荫和降低茎密度,降低了象鼻虫危害和叶面病害的严重程度。与未处理的对照组相比,所有处理的冠状态和再生质量都更好。防护林、低密度的疏林和小块的砍伐对增加一些栖息地有额外的好处,导致更大的鸣禽多样性。
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引用次数: 0
Time-dependent mortality and behavioral response of Odontotermes obesus (Blattodea: Termitidae) against different dose rates of pesticides for sustainable forest management 森林可持续经营中不同剂量率农药对肥胖齿白蚁死亡率及行为反应的影响
3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1257418
Asad Aslam, De-Fu Chi, Asim Abbasi, Muhammad Arshad, Faisal Hafeez, Amna Fayyaz, Ashraf Atef Hatamleh, Munirah Abdullah Al-Dosary
Termites have become a global concern, and their effective management has remained a challenge since time immemorial. Certain microbial and botanical agents have been used for their management, but their efficacy has been compromised, particularly in field conditions. Hence, the current study was designed to check the efficacy of low doses of different pesticides, such as chlorpyrifos, fipronil, bifenthrin, and chlorantraniliprole, against mortality and behavioral responses of Odontotermes obesus at two different temperatures (16 ± 1 and 26 ± 1°C). The discrete behavioral symptoms included intoxication, ataxia, moribundity, and death. Laboratory-maintained termite workers were exposed to different concentrations of pesticides through a filter paper bioassay. All tested pesticides and their concentrations differed significantly regarding their lethal time (LT 50 ) values compared to the mortality of termite workers. Moreover, the LT 50 values of pesticides gradually decreased with increased pesticidal concentrations. Temperature also had a significant effect on the efficacy of tested pesticides as all pesticides showed better results at higher temperatures. At both tested temperatures, chlorantraniliprole (5 ppm) proved to be the most effective pesticide against termite workers. Similarly, the behavioral symptoms also varied depending on pesticides and their administered concentrations and existed for a relatively longer time span at lower temperatures. In most cases, the order of responses was moribundity, followed by intoxication and ataxia. Moribundity and intoxication were the most frequently observed symptoms for chlorpyriphos and bifenthrin-treated termite workers. In the case of fipronil, intoxication was the most pronounced symptom. Similarly, the maximum value of ataxia was recorded in the case of chlorantraniliprole. However, moribund symptoms lasted longer in all tested concentrations of chlorantraniliprole, followed by ataxia and intoxication. The overall order of toxicity was chlorantraniliprole > bifenthrin > fipronil > chlorpyrifos. These pesticides, at their low doses, did not exhibit any repellent action and were not detected by the foraging termite workers. Moreover, their slow action mechanism makes them a suitable candidate for infecting whole colonies away from treated surfaces. Therefore, these pesticides can be successfully incorporated into different integrated termite management programs to keep the plantation free from threatening underground pests.
白蚁已成为全球关注的问题,自古以来,有效管理白蚁一直是一个挑战。某些微生物和植物制剂已用于其管理,但其功效已受到损害,特别是在田间条件下。因此,本研究旨在研究不同剂量杀虫剂毒死蜱、氟虫腈、联苯菊酯和氯虫腈在不同温度(16±1℃和26±1℃)下对肥胖齿白蚁死亡率和行为反应的影响。离散的行为症状包括中毒、共济失调、死亡和死亡。实验室饲养的白蚁工蚁通过滤纸生物测定暴露于不同浓度的农药。所有被试农药及其浓度的致死时间(l50)值与白蚁工蚁的死亡率相比存在显著差异。随着农药浓度的增加,农药的l50值逐渐降低。温度对农药的药效也有显著影响,所有农药在较高温度下的效果都更好。在两个测试温度下,氯虫腈(5ppm)被证明是对白蚁最有效的杀虫剂。同样,行为症状也因农药及其施用浓度而异,并在较低温度下存在相对较长的时间。在大多数情况下,反应的顺序是死亡,其次是中毒和共济失调。毒死蜱和联苯菊酯处理的白蚁工蚁最常见的症状是死亡和中毒。氟虫腈中毒是最明显的症状。同样,在氯虫腈的情况下,也记录了共济失调的最大值。然而,在所有测试浓度的氯虫腈中,死亡症状持续时间较长,其次是共济失调和中毒。总体毒性顺序为:氯虫腈;联苯和gt;fipronil和gt;毒死蜱。这些杀虫剂在低剂量下,没有表现出任何驱避作用,也没有被觅食的白蚁检测到。此外,它们缓慢的作用机制使它们成为感染远离处理表面的整个菌落的合适候选者。因此,这些农药可以成功地结合到不同的综合白蚁管理方案中,使种植园免受地下害虫的威胁。
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引用次数: 0
Ironwood/hophornbeam leaf rust, an emergent disease across the southeastern United States affiliated to Melampsoridium asiaticum 铁木/hophornbeam叶锈病,一种横跨美国东南部的与亚洲Melampsoridium相关的新兴疾病
3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1212192
Nicolas Anger, Benjamin W. Held, Robert A. Blanchette, Yoshitaka Ono, Catherine M. Aime, Jason A. Smith
In the late fall of 2018, foliar rust (referred to as ironwood/hophornbeam leaf rust [IHLR]) was discovered in several counties in Florida, United States, on ironwood ( Carpinus caroliniana ) and hophornbeam ( Ostrya virginiana ), both members of the Betulaceae . Uredinia were observed on leaves and, in some cases, samaras of both species at numerous locations on trees of all age classes. Similar reports across the southeastern United States (Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Texas) were detected the following year, with European hornbeam ( Carpinus betulus ) being reported as an additional host, while Ostrya virginiana var. guatemalensis in El Salvador was also discovered showing signs of uredinial infection. Field observations and analyses of morphological data obtained with light and scanning electron microscopy on IHLR and related Melampsoridium herbarium samples and combined molecular data from the ITS and LSU loci indicate that (i) IHLR across samples from the southeastern United States and El Salvador belong to the same taxon; (ii) IHLR is closely affiliated to M. asiaticum ; and (iii) some taxonomic modifications might be necessary at the genus level. No alternative (gametophyte) host has been identified, and the rust is likely overwintering in the uredinial stage. This disease represents a novel leaf pathogen on these hosts in North America, and efforts are needed to monitor future disease epidemiology and impacts on these native and cultivated tree species.
2018年深秋,在美国佛罗里达州的几个县,在桦木科的铁木(Carpinus caroliniana)和hophornbeam (Ostrya virginia)上发现了叶锈病(被称为铁木/hophornbeam叶锈病[IHLR])。在所有年龄等级的树木的许多位置上,在叶子和某些情况下,在两个物种的翅果上观察到乌氏菌。第二年,在美国东南部(乔治亚州、卡罗来纳州、田纳西州和德克萨斯州)也发现了类似的报告,欧洲角树(Carpinus betulus)被报道为另一个宿主,而萨尔瓦多的Ostrya virgiana变种危地马拉也被发现显示出尿道感染的迹象。对IHLR和相关Melampsoridium标本馆标本的光镜和扫描电镜形态学数据以及ITS和LSU位点的综合分子数据进行实地观察和分析表明(i)来自美国东南部和萨尔瓦多的IHLR标本属于同一分类单元;(ii) IHLR与亚洲支原体密切相关;(3)在属水平上可能需要进行一些分类修改。没有其他(配子体)寄主被确定,并且锈病很可能在尿道阶段越冬。这种疾病代表了北美这些寄主的一种新的叶片病原体,需要努力监测未来的疾病流行病学及其对这些本地和栽培树种的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Contrasting impacts of climate change on protection forests of the Italian Alps 气候变化对意大利阿尔卑斯山防护林的影响对比
3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1240235
Laurin Hillebrand, Sebastian Marzini, Alice Crespi, Ulrike Hiltner, Marco Mina
Protection forests play a key role in protecting settlements, people, and infrastructures from gravitational hazards such as rockfalls and avalanches in mountain areas. Rapid climate change is challenging the role of protection forests by altering their dynamics, structure, and composition. Information on local- and regional-scale impacts of climate change on protection forests is critical for planning adaptations in forest management. We used a model of forest dynamics (ForClim) to assess the succession of mountain forests in the Eastern Alps and their protective effects under future climate change scenarios. We investigated eleven representative forest sites along an elevational gradient across multiple locations within an administrative region, covering wide differences in tree species structure, composition, altitude, and exposition. We evaluated protective performance against rockfall and avalanches using numerical indices (i.e., linker functions) quantifying the degree of protection from metrics of simulated forest structure and composition. Our findings reveal that climate warming has a contrasting impact on protective effects in mountain forests of the Eastern Alps. Climate change is likely to not affect negatively all protection forest stands but its impact depends on site and stand conditions. Impacts were highly contingent to the magnitude of climate warming, with increasing criticality under the most severe climate projections. Forests in lower-montane elevations and those located in dry continental valleys showed drastic changes in forest structure and composition due to drought-induced mortality while subalpine forests mostly profited from rising temperatures and a longer vegetation period. Overall, avalanche protection will likely be negatively affected by climate change, while the ability of forests to maintain rockfall protection depends on the severity of expected climate change and their vulnerability due to elevation and topography, with most subalpine forests less prone to loosing protective effects. Proactive measures in management should be taken in the near future to avoid losses of protective effects in the case of severe climate change in the Alps. Given the heterogeneous impact of climate warming, such adaptations can be aided by model-based projections and high local resolution studies to identify forest stand types that might require management priority for maintaining protective effects in the future.
防护林在保护居民区、居民和基础设施免受山崩和雪崩等重力危害方面发挥着关键作用。快速的气候变化通过改变森林的动态、结构和组成,正在挑战森林保护林的作用。关于气候变化对保护林的地方和区域影响的信息对于森林管理的适应规划至关重要。利用森林动态模型(ForClim)对未来气候变化情景下东阿尔卑斯山地森林的演替及其保护作用进行了评估。我们在一个行政区域内的多个地点,沿着海拔梯度调查了11个具有代表性的森林样地,涵盖了树种结构、组成、海拔和暴露的广泛差异。我们使用数值指标(即链接函数)对模拟森林结构和组成指标的保护程度进行量化,以评估对岩崩和雪崩的保护性能。我们的研究结果表明,气候变暖对东阿尔卑斯山山林的保护作用有不同的影响。气候变化可能不会对所有的保护林分产生负面影响,但其影响取决于立地和林分条件。影响很大程度上取决于气候变暖的程度,在最严重的气候预测下,影响的临界程度越来越高。低海拔山区的森林和位于干燥大陆山谷的森林由于干旱引起的死亡,森林结构和组成发生了剧烈变化,而亚高山森林主要受益于气温上升和植被期延长。总体而言,气候变化可能会对雪崩防护产生负面影响,而森林维持岩崩防护的能力取决于预期气候变化的严重程度及其由于海拔和地形的脆弱性,大多数亚高山森林不太容易失去保护作用。在不久的将来,应采取积极的管理措施,以避免在阿尔卑斯山严重气候变化的情况下失去保护作用。考虑到气候变暖的异质性影响,这种适应可以通过基于模式的预测和高地方分辨率的研究来辅助,以确定可能需要优先管理的林分类型,以便在未来保持保护作用。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting potential distributions of Monochamus saltuarius, a novel insect vector of pine wilt disease in China 松材枯萎病新媒介沙鼠在中国的潜在分布预测
3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1243996
Ruihe Gao, Lei Liu, Rongjiao Li, Shiming Fan, Jianghai Dong, Lijuan Zhao
Monochamus saltuarius Gebler was first identified as a new vector of pine wilt disease in Northeast China in 2018, and monitoring of M. saltuarius has become a key strategy to prevent and control the disease in this region. However, the potential distributions of M. saltuarius in China are unclear. In this study, we clarified bioclimatic environmental variables affecting the distribution of M. saltuarius , predicted the geographically suitable habitats of M. saltuarius in current and future climate conditions, and determined changes in the spatial pattern of a suitable distribution area of M. saltuarius under current and future climate conditions. This is the first study to use the optimized maximum entropy model and ArcGIS to accurately predict suitable geographical areas for M. saltuarius based on different climatic conditions in China. and the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve reached 0.954 ± 0.0024. Of the 32 bioclimatic variables, temperature seasonality, precipitation of wettest month, precipitation seasonality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and elevation played significant roles in determining the potential distribution of M. saltuarius , with contribution rates to the model of 32.1, 31.8, 11.5, 7.5, and 6.5%, respectively. Under the current climate scenario, the predicted suitable areas for M. saltuarius were mainly at latitudes north of 33° in China, and larger suitable areas were mainly distributed in Northeast China and North China, with areas of 87.04 × 10 4 and 73.15 × 10 4 km 2 , respectively. Using future climatic scenarios SSP126 and SSP585, the predicted suitable areas of M. saltuarius will continue to expand from that of 2040, 2070, and 2100, with highly and moderately suitable areas showing larger increasing trends but low suitable distribution areas will decrease to varying degrees. The potential suitable areas of M. saltuarius may increase greatly in Northwest, Central, and Eastern China. This study provides important scientific theoretical knowledge for effectively controlling and preventing M. saltuarius and pine wilt disease in northern China.
2018年,东北地区首次发现了一种新的松材枯萎病病原,对其进行监测已成为该地区松材枯萎病防控的重要策略。然而,saltuarius在中国的潜在分布尚不清楚。本研究明确了影响黄颡鱼分布的生物气候环境变量,预测了黄颡鱼在当前和未来气候条件下的地理适宜生境,确定了黄颡鱼适宜分布区在当前和未来气候条件下的空间格局变化。本研究首次利用优化后的最大熵模型和ArcGIS技术,基于不同气候条件对中国黄颡鱼适宜生长的地理区域进行了准确预测。受试者工作特性曲线下的平均面积为0.954±0.0024。在32个生物气候变量中,温度季节性、最湿月降水量、降水季节性、最暖月最高气温和海拔高度对黄颡鱼潜在分布的影响最为显著,贡献率分别为32.1、31.8、11.5、7.5和6.5%。在当前气候情景下,中国黄颡鱼的适宜生长区域主要在33°以北,较大的适宜生长区域主要分布在东北和华北地区,面积分别为87.04 × 104 km2和73.15 × 10.4 km2。在SSP126和SSP585未来气候情景下,沙蚤适宜分布区域在2040年、2070年和2100年的基础上继续扩大,高、中适宜分布区域增长趋势较大,低适宜分布区域则有不同程度的减少。中国西北部、中部和东部可能会有较大的潜在适宜区。本研究为中国北方松材线虫病和松材线虫病的有效防治提供了重要的科学理论知识。
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引用次数: 0
Vulnerability of northern rocky mountain forests under future drought, fire, and harvest 北落基山森林在未来干旱、火灾和收成下的脆弱性
3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1146033
Jeffrey E. Stenzel, Crystal A. Kolden, Polly C. Buotte, Kristina J. Bartowitz, Eric W. Walsh, Tara W. Hudiburg
Novel climate and disturbance regimes in the 21st century threaten to increase the vulnerability of some western U.S. forests to loss of biomass and function. However, the timing and magnitude of forest vulnerabilities are uncertain and will be highly variable across the complex biophysical landscape of the region. Assessing future forest trajectories and potential management impacts under novel conditions requires place-specific and mechanistic model projections. Stakeholders in the high-carbon density forests of the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains (NRM) currently seek to understand and mitigate climate risks to these diverse conifer forests, which experienced profound 20th century disturbance from the 1910 “Big Burn” and timber harvest. Present forest management plan revisions consider approaches including increases in timber harvest that are intended to shift species compositions and increase forest stress tolerance. We utilize CLM-FATES, a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) coupled to an Earth Systems Model (ESM), to model shifting NRM forest carbon stocks and cover, production, and disturbance through 2100 under unprecedented climate and management. Across all 21st century scenarios, domain forest C-stocks and canopy cover face decline after 2090 due to the interaction of intermittent drought and fire mortality with declining Net Primary Production (NPP) and post-disturbance recovery. However, mid-century increases in forest vulnerability to fire and drought impacts are not consistently projected across climate models due to increases in precipitation that buffer warming impacts. Under all climate scenarios, increased harvest regimes diminish forest carbon stocks and increase period mortality over business-as-usual, despite some late-century reductions in forest stress. Results indicate that existing forest carbon stocks and functions are moderately persistent and that increased near-term removals may be mistimed for effectively increasing resilience.
21世纪的新气候和扰动可能会增加美国西部一些森林在生物量和功能损失方面的脆弱性。然而,森林脆弱性发生的时间和程度是不确定的,并且在该地区复杂的生物物理景观中变化很大。评估未来森林轨迹和在新条件下潜在的管理影响需要对特定地点和机制模式进行预测。美国北部落基山脉(NRM)高碳密度森林的利益相关者目前正在寻求了解和减轻这些不同针叶林的气候风险,这些针叶林经历了20世纪1910年“大燃烧”和木材采伐的深刻干扰。目前修订的森林管理计划考虑的方法包括增加木材采伐,目的是改变物种组成和提高森林的抗逆性。本文利用动态植被模型(DVM)与地球系统模型(ESM)耦合的CLM-FATES,模拟了在前所未有的气候和管理下,到2100年NRM森林碳储量、覆盖、生产和扰动的变化。在21世纪的所有情景中,由于间歇性干旱和火灾死亡率与净初级生产力(NPP)下降和干扰后恢复的相互作用,域森林c -蓄存量和冠层覆盖在2090年后都将下降。然而,由于缓冲变暖影响的降水增加,各气候模式对本世纪中叶森林对火灾和干旱影响脆弱性的预测并不一致。在所有气候情景下,尽管在本世纪后期森林压力有所减少,但采伐制度的增加减少了森林碳储量,并增加了时期死亡率。结果表明,现有的森林碳储量和功能具有中等持久性,增加短期清除量可能不合时宜,无法有效提高恢复力。
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Frontiers in Forests and Global Change
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