With the implementation of China’s Western Development Strategy, coal mining activities in Xinjiang has intensified, raising concerns over heavy metal contamination in local soils. The arid climate, characterized by low rainfall, high evaporation, and low soil organic matter, significantly influences the migration and transformation of heavy metals. However, the underlying driving mechanisms remain poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, this study analyzed the contamination status, risks, sources, and driving mechanisms of soil heavy metals by integrating pollution and health indices, Monte Carlo simulations, and structural equation modeling across four major coal mining areas in Xinjiang. The results revealed that: (1) although the average concentrations of soil heavy metals were below local background values, localized hotspots of elevated concentrations were detected. Overall, the Ili and Kubai mining areas exhibited higher contamination levels than Zhundong and Tuha; (2) both the geo-accumulation index and the Nemerow pollution index identified cadmium (Cd) as the most severe contaminant, particularly in the Ili mining area of western Xinjiang, where Cd was the main contributor to ecological risk; (3) although all heavy metals presented negligible non-carcinogenic risks to both children and adults, Cd and arsenic (As) exhibited potential carcinogenic risks in both groups, with As emerging as the dominant contributor to the total carcinogenic risk; (4) heavy metal contamination primarily originated from multiple sources, including mining and transport, atmospheric deposition from coal-fired power generation, and emissions from coal chemical industries. Source contributions varied significantly across different mining areas and metal types; (5) soil physicochemical properties exerted a significant positive influence on heavy metal concentrations, whereas hydrological factors exhibited a weak and non-significant negative effect. This study offers crucial insights into the dynamics of heavy metal contamination in coal mining soils of Xinjiang, providing valuable guidance for pollution prevention and soil management strategies.
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