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A Conceptual System Dynamics Model of Enhancing Biodiesel Adoption in Indonesia 提高印尼生物柴油采用的概念系统动力学模型
Ade Y. Ramdhani, Andri D. Setiawan
To increase the renewable energy mix in Indonesia, the Indonesian government has implemented a mandatory policy for the use of a 20 percent biodiesel blend (B20). This policy is a part of an effort to realize Indonesia's commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 29% by 2030. This policy also aims to increase domestic palm oil consumption in Indonesia as the largest palm oil producer globally with a total land area of 14.99 million hectares or equivalent to 49.5% of the world's total oil palm land. However, the utilization of renewable energy that can be achieved currently is only around 11.5%, still far from the target of 23% by 2025. The low use of renewable energy is certainly a challenge for the Indonesian government to enhance biodiesel adoption as renewable energy by raising the percentage of biodiesel blended. However, such an enhancement is arduous to do due to the complexity of biodiesel adoption. While capturing biodiesel adoption complexity is important before moving to the next biodiesel blended plan, there is an insufficient effort on this matter. This paper aims to understand the complex structure of biodiesel adoption in Indonesia. For this purpose, a conceptual model of system dynamics approach is developed to analyze the biodiesel adoption complexity and its related policy. The result shows that many underlying factors affecting biodiesel development are considered in designing policies to increase the adoption of biodiesel in Indonesia. Further, the government mandates and subsidies seem to take the most determining factors as the government intervention for increasing biodiesel adoption.
为了增加印尼的可再生能源结构,印尼政府实施了一项强制性政策,要求使用20%的生物柴油混合物(B20)。这项政策是印尼为实现到2030年将温室气体排放量减少29%的承诺所做努力的一部分。印尼是全球最大的棕榈油生产国,土地总面积达1499万公顷,相当于世界油棕土地总面积的49.5%,这一政策也旨在增加国内棕榈油消费。然而,目前可实现的可再生能源利用率仅为11.5%左右,距离2025年23%的目标还有很大距离。可再生能源的低使用率对印尼政府来说无疑是一个挑战,通过提高混合生物柴油的百分比来提高生物柴油作为可再生能源的采用。然而,由于采用生物柴油的复杂性,这种改进是困难的。虽然在转向下一个生物柴油混合计划之前,掌握生物柴油采用的复杂性很重要,但在这个问题上的努力还不够。本文旨在了解印度尼西亚生物柴油采用的复杂结构。为此,建立了系统动力学方法的概念模型,分析了生物柴油的采用复杂性及其相关政策。结果表明,在制定政策以增加印度尼西亚生物柴油的采用时,考虑了影响生物柴油发展的许多潜在因素。此外,政府的命令和补贴似乎是政府干预增加生物柴油采用的最决定性因素。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation Modeling and Performance Analysis of Production Schedule of Polymer Dispersion Plant with Limited Storage Tank 有限储罐聚合物分散装置生产计划仿真建模及性能分析
S. Subagiyo, D. Ishak
Scheduling is a crucial point in the manufacturing process of Polymer Dispersion in a Polymer Dispersion Plant, especially for a plant that has a limited amount of storage tank. The optimization of scheduling is needed to avoid any bottleneck and achieve the optimum flow time and production cost by simulation modeling with Discrete Event Simulation. The best scenario on assigning and sequencing the product to be produced within the horizon of time can be observed. In this study, we analyze scheduling performance by testing all factors with two criteria: average product flow time and the cost of production. We conduct three phases process in this frame fork. In the first phase, we create the design of experiments to state the pre-defined process factor that affects the performance criteria. We make a simulation model of the Polymer dispersion plant based on the actual data and the second phase. The last phase calculates the aggregate of two performance criteria with Grey Relational Analysis to determine the best scenario. Based on the analysis in this study, among the other factors, the quantity rule and the reaction time rule have the most significant effect on the performance of production scheduling in the chemical plant, which the Polymer Dispersion Plant represents.
在聚合物分散体工厂,特别是储罐数量有限的工厂,调度是聚合物分散体生产过程中的一个关键环节。利用离散事件仿真技术对生产过程进行仿真建模,以避免生产过程中的瓶颈,实现最优的生产时间和成本。可以观察到在时间范围内分配和排序要生产的产品的最佳方案。在本研究中,我们以平均产品流程时间和生产成本两个标准测试所有因素来分析调度绩效。我们在这个框架叉中进行了三个阶段的加工。在第一阶段,我们创建实验设计,以说明影响性能标准的预定义过程因素。根据实际数据和第二阶段的研究,建立了聚合物分散装置的仿真模型。最后一个阶段使用灰色关联分析计算两个性能标准的总和,以确定最佳方案。根据本研究的分析,在众多因素中,数量规则和反应时间规则对以聚合物分散装置为代表的化工厂的生产调度性能的影响最为显著。
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引用次数: 0
Fear of Covid-19: A Conceptual Model for Behavior and Employee Performance in Service and Manufacturing Industries Covid-19恐惧:服务业和制造业行为和员工绩效的概念模型
Nuke Ferdilia Prasiwi, R. Ardi
The COVID-19 pandemic has been going for more than one year since the first time discovered in Wuhan, China in December 2019. As of February 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic has reached more than 109 million confirmed cases and more than 2 million death cases worldwide. Many areas in life are badly affected by the pandemic such as health, economics, business, education, political, international relations and social life. Business is one of areas that is most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many companies and organizations adjust their working schedule and doing anything to survive from running out of business. They keep going despite the circumstances which means their employees are working during the pandemic. Working from office (WFO) during pandemic is risky because highly transmittable virus and unavailability vaccine and medicine. Even though preventive measurement has been applied, the feeling of fear and anxiety in employee could not be avoided. This study we will investigate correlation between fear of COVID-19, behavior and employee performance in service and manufacturing industries, that are connected to Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and Theory Planned Behavior (TPB). An online questionnaire is created by collecting variables and constructs from previous studies. Then interviewing some experts to evaluate and validate them. In the future, a Structural Equation Modelling Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) will be used to examine correlation and relationship of variables and constructs.
自2019年12月在中国武汉首次发现COVID-19大流行以来,已经持续了一年多。截至2021年2月,全球COVID-19大流行确诊病例已超过1.09亿例,死亡病例超过200万例。生活中的许多领域受到疫情的严重影响,如卫生、经济、商业、教育、政治、国际关系和社会生活。商业是受COVID-19大流行影响最大的领域之一。许多公司和组织调整他们的工作时间表,做任何事情来避免倒闭。尽管情况如此,他们仍在继续工作,这意味着他们的员工在疫情期间仍在工作。在大流行期间在办公室工作是危险的,因为病毒具有高度传染性,而且无法获得疫苗和药物。即使采取了预防措施,也无法避免员工的恐惧和焦虑感。本研究以保护动机理论(PMT)和计划行为理论(TPB)为基础,探讨服务业和制造业员工对COVID-19的恐惧、行为和绩效之间的相关性。通过收集以前研究中的变量和结构,创建了在线问卷。然后采访一些专家来评估和验证他们。在未来,结构方程建模偏最小二乘(SEM-PLS)将用于检查变量和结构的相关性和关系。
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引用次数: 0
Critical Success Factors of A Partnership between Traditional Shop & Startup Business: A Preliminary Findings 传统商店与创业企业合作关系的关键成功因素:初步研究
Falih Muhtadi, R. Ardi
Micro and Small Medium Enterprises (MSME) in Indonesia have been providing significant economic development and employment. The majority of MSMEs are the micro-business sector; one is the traditional shop or Warung in Bahasa. Given the contributions, the MSMEs owner faces crucial obstacles, mainly in supply chain issues and their lack of perception and readiness to meet industry changes thanks to their informalities. The owners could leverage innovation in a business partnership and ICT (Information, Communication & Technology) adoption as leverage to overcome these obstacles and increase their capabilities. In Indonesia, startups highlight these issues to initiate a business partnership entity that integrates ICT into the traditional shop's business process. Previous studies confirm that business relationships positively impact small business performance, which will contribute to their success. However, the lack of understanding about factors contributing to business partnerships' success leads to the inability to achieve their goals. Given the MSME business entity's informalities, restrained resources, and the novelty of this business relationship, the understanding of its success factors becomes essential. Thus, this study intends to identify the Critical Success Factors (CSF) of traditional shop and startup business relationships using literature reviews and field interviews validated by industry experts. This study's outcomes would help the stakeholders identify the factors which essential to lead these relationships achieving their goals and empowering the MSMEs owner at the same time.
印度尼西亚的中小微企业(MSME)一直在提供重要的经济发展和就业机会。大多数微型中小企业是微型企业部门;一个是传统的商店,也就是印尼语的Warung。鉴于这些贡献,中小微企业所有者面临着重大障碍,主要是在供应链问题上,由于他们的非正式性,他们缺乏对行业变化的感知和准备。业主可以利用商业伙伴关系中的创新和ICT(信息,通信和技术)的采用作为杠杆来克服这些障碍并提高他们的能力。在印度尼西亚,创业公司强调这些问题,以建立一个商业伙伴关系实体,将ICT整合到传统商店的业务流程中。先前的研究证实,商业关系对小企业绩效有积极影响,这将有助于小企业的成功。然而,缺乏对促成商业伙伴关系成功的因素的理解导致无法实现他们的目标。考虑到中小微企业的非正式性、有限的资源以及这种商业关系的新颖性,了解其成功因素变得至关重要。因此,本研究旨在通过文献综述和行业专家验证的实地访谈来确定传统商店和创业企业关系的关键成功因素(CSF)。本研究的结果将有助于利益相关者确定导致这些关系实现其目标的关键因素,同时赋予中小微企业所有者权力。
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引用次数: 0
Factors Influencing Residents’ Intention toward Source Separation of Plastic Noodle Wrapper Waste: A Case Study of Jabodetabek, Indonesia 居民对塑料面皮废弃物源头分类意愿的影响因素——以印尼Jabodetabek市为例
Zarahmaida Taurina, M. Dachyar, F. Farizal
Economic growth and urban development have induced environmental damages. It because of plastic consumption never stops increasing, and make it into environmental pollution. The contribution of noodle wrapper into environment has become significant since Indonesia is the second biggest instant noodles’ consumer in the world. As the most rapidly urban development and populous area in Indonesia, Jabodetabek (Jakarta-Bogor-Depok-Tangerang-Bekasi) contributes to the high plastic waste generation. Separation waste at source is important for the successful of any waste management. However, the waste separation behaviors are not common in Indonesia and the study about residents’ separate intentions for noodle wrapper is scarce. For filling this gap, we have tried to identify the critical factors that affect the residents’ intention towards noodle wrapper separation. Data drawn from 435 questionnaires were used to assess demographic factors and the TPB constructs (i.e. attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, knowledge, past behavior, willingness to accept, intention, and behavior). Results of this study showed that subjective norms had the most significant influence on the intention of noodle wrapper separation followed by past behavior, attitude, and knowledge. While perceived behavioral control and willingness to accept do not have a significant effect on the intention of noodle wrapper separation.
经济增长和城市发展造成了环境破坏。这是因为塑料的消费量不断增加,并使其成为环境污染。由于印度尼西亚是世界上第二大方便面消费国,方便面包装对环境的贡献已经变得重要。作为印度尼西亚城市发展最快和人口最多的地区,Jabodetabek(雅加达-茂物-德波克-丹格朗-别加西)产生了大量的塑料废物。从源头上对废物进行分类对任何废物管理的成功都很重要。然而,印度尼西亚的垃圾分类行为并不普遍,居民对面皮的分离意图研究较少。为了填补这一空白,我们试图找出影响居民对面皮分离意愿的关键因素。从435份问卷中抽取数据,评估人口统计学因素和TPB结构(即态度、主观规范、感知行为控制、知识、过去行为、接受意愿、意图和行为)。本研究结果显示,主观规范对面皮分离意向的影响最显著,其次是过去行为、态度和知识。而感知行为控制和接受意愿对面皮分离意图没有显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
A Preliminary Findings of Risks in Adopting Circular Economy Initiatives in Indonesia: Supply Chain of Plastic Industry 印尼采用循环经济举措的风险初探:塑料行业供应链
Muhamad Fajar, R. Ardi
The circular economy aims to utilize natural resources and reduce the large amount of waste that impacts the environment. Although many studies had identified various advantages of adopting a circular economy, only a few studies have investigated the risks of adopting a circular economy context. Therefore, to fill this research gap, this study proposes a preliminary risks assessment of adopting circular economy initiatives in the Indonesian plastic supply chain. First, this study performed a literature review to identify risk criteria in the plastic manufacturing supply chain's circular economy initiative. Second, it continued by interviewing the experts to validate the identified risks. Right experts are involved in rating the criteria on a four-point Likert scale. From expert appraisal, this study established eight risk categories and 31 specific risks for further analysis.
循环经济旨在利用自然资源,减少对环境造成影响的大量废物。尽管许多研究已经确定了采用循环经济的各种优势,但只有少数研究调查了采用循环经济背景的风险。因此,为了填补这一研究空白,本研究提出了在印度尼西亚塑料供应链中采用循环经济举措的初步风险评估。首先,本研究进行了文献综述,以确定塑料制造供应链循环经济倡议中的风险标准。其次,它继续通过采访专家来验证已识别的风险。正确的专家参与了对四分李克特量表的标准进行评级。通过专家评估,本研究确定了8个风险类别和31个具体风险进行进一步分析。
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引用次数: 0
Crude Oil Production Recovery Strategies for Upstream Sectors on Offshore Indonesia: A Conceptual Model 印度尼西亚海上上游部门原油生产恢复策略:一个概念模型
Leo Ginting, Andri D. Setiawan, A. Hidayatno
Crude oil is one of Indonesia's most significant revenue from its export. However, crude oil is also a burden in import spending to fulfill the high demand for its derivative product, fuel oil. This issue is driven by the decline of crude oil production and sluggish upstream activities to replace the depleted oil reserves, which are also affected by low crude oil prices in the market. The upstream oil activities such as exploration and exploitation mostly operated on onshore instead of offshore, so the offshore’ undeveloped oil reserves are still vast and promising. Therefore, there is an urgency to set the crude oil production recovery strategies by focusing on the offshore upstream sector. However, the offshore upstream macro processes are complex and dynamic, need a holistic view to understand their structure, causal relationship, and behavior over time. This study proposes a conceptual model based on the System Dynamics approach to comprehend those dynamic complexities. It will be modeled through one of the biggest and oldest offshore oil companies in Indonesia as a representative to produce the strategies. The conceptual model shows that the exploration sectors should be more prioritized to ensure the sustainability of exploitation activities and crude oil production recovery in the future.
原油是印尼最重要的出口收入之一。然而,原油也是进口支出的负担,以满足对其衍生产品燃料油的高需求。这一问题是由原油产量下降和上游活动缓慢导致的,以取代枯竭的石油储备,这也受到市场原油价格低迷的影响。石油勘探开发等上游石油活动大多在陆上而不是海上进行,因此海上未开发的石油储量仍然巨大,前景广阔。因此,迫切需要通过关注海上上游部门来制定原油产量恢复策略。然而,海上上游宏观过程是复杂和动态的,需要一个整体的观点来理解它们的结构、因果关系和随时间的行为。本文提出了一个基于系统动力学方法的概念模型来理解这些动态复杂性。该战略将以印尼规模最大、历史最悠久的海上石油公司之一为代表,制定战略。概念模型表明,勘探部门应该更加优先,以确保未来开采活动的可持续性和原油产量的恢复。
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引用次数: 0
Developing a Sustainable Green Battery Swapping Industry Model: A Conceptual Framework 发展可持续的绿色电池交换产业模式:概念框架
Aditya Idamsyah, Andri D. Setiawan
The government of Indonesia (GOI) has committed to accelerating electric motorcycles adoption for reducing transport sector emissions. A battery swapping scheme is an attractive option for the GOI to solve several impediments to electric motorcycle adoption related to short milage, charging times, and initial investment costs. However, the battery swapping policy alone seems ineffective in supporting emission reduction targets since Indonesia's grid electricity source is still dominated by fossil energy. Therefore, it is crucial to introduce a green battery swapping concept. It is a concept that integrates the battery swapping scheme with the use of solar energy as its primary energy source for the battery. However, creating a sustainable green battery swapping industry should be assessed as a complex system. Hence, a holistic view is needed to understand the system process and determine the relationship between related elements. This study aims to develop the conceptual model of a sustainable green battery swapping business development using system dynamics modeling. The conceptual model translated into a system diagram and a causal loop diagram (CLD) provides initial information that solar PV capacity, carbon credit, and incentives for charging stations are the main variables impacting the sustainability of a green battery swapping industry.
印度尼西亚政府(GOI)已承诺加快电动摩托车的采用,以减少交通部门的排放。电池交换方案对印度政府来说是一个有吸引力的选择,可以解决电动摩托车采用的几个障碍,包括短里程、充电时间和初始投资成本。然而,由于印尼的电网电力来源仍然以化石能源为主,仅靠电池交换政策似乎无法实现减排目标。因此,引入绿色电池交换概念至关重要。这是一个将电池交换方案与使用太阳能作为电池的主要能源相结合的概念。但是,创造可持续的绿色电池交换产业是一个复杂的系统。因此,需要一个整体的观点来理解系统过程,并确定相关元素之间的关系。本研究旨在运用系统动力学模型,建立永续绿色电池交换业务发展的概念模型。转化为系统图和因果循环图(CLD)的概念模型提供了太阳能光伏发电容量、碳信用和充电站激励是影响绿色电池交换行业可持续性的主要变量的初始信息。
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引用次数: 0
Supply Chain Resilience of Indonesian Nickel Mining Industry: A Causal Loop Analysis 印尼镍矿业供应链弹性:因果循环分析
I. A. T. Munikhah, R. Ardi
This paper aims to assess the supply chain resilience in the nickel mining industry in Indonesia. Problems arise in the supply chain for the Indonesian mining industry, i.e. the existence of laws regarding the export ban on nickel ore and policies regarding industrial downstream which hamper the process of nickel refined production because it is still unable to carry out downstream activities. When the export ban on nickel ore was imposed, the demand for nickel fell sharply which caused the reference nickel price to fall. Furthermore, carbon emissions resulting from mining and nickel processing can also damage the environment if not handled properly. The supply chain needs to withstand disruption and recover from a disruption quickly. This study utilizes a part of System Dynamics methodology, i.e. Causal Loop Diagram Analysis. The methodology consists of literature review, qualitative model development and expert interviews. The results show a validated causal loop diagram that could become a basis for the dynamic assessment for the systems under scenario.
本文旨在评估印尼镍矿业的供应链弹性。印度尼西亚采矿业的供应链出现了问题,即存在关于镍矿石出口禁令的法律和关于工业下游的政策,这些法律和政策阻碍了镍精炼生产的进程,因为它仍然无法进行下游活动。当镍矿出口禁令实施后,镍的需求急剧下降,导致镍的参考价格下跌。此外,如果处理不当,采矿和镍加工产生的碳排放也会破坏环境。供应链需要承受中断,并从中断中迅速恢复。本研究运用了系统动力学方法的一部分,即因果循环图分析。研究方法包括文献综述、定性模型开发和专家访谈。结果显示了一个经过验证的因果循环图,可以作为情景下系统动态评估的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Conceptual Model for Increasing Services and Users of Mass Public Transportation in Jakarta. 增加雅加达公共交通服务和用户的概念模型。
Ryanda G. Away, Andri D. Setiawan, A. Hidayatno
The transportation demand in urban areas is driven by high mobility needs. However, in urban areas such as Jakarta, people propensity to use private transportation rather than public transportation even though modern public transportation is available. Consequently, the continued increase in the modal share of private vehicles was a matter of concern in the context of public transport services and the number of users. This paper wants to address this concern holistically by using the system dynamics approach. System dynamics is being used to developing a conceptual model of the dynamic complexity in Jakarta's transportation sector. By capturing the elements involved in the transportation system, this study also aims to capture key factors that may play significant roles in increasing services and the number of users. Such a holistic view could provide insights for possible effective measures that the government can take. The system diagram revealed the system's key components and stakeholders that involved in the transportation system in Jakarta. The Improvement of accessibility facilities and travel restrictions for private transport users is key points that need to be addressed properly to develop policy. Actor Responsibility Problem Perception Objectives Sources of program funding Feasibility of funding program Funding allocation for propper program Ministry of Environment and Forestry Healthy living environment High growth rate of private vehicle users Emission reduction National Police Traffic control High growth rate of private vehicle users Reducing traffic accident & congestion
城市地区的交通需求是由高流动性需求驱动的。然而,在雅加达等城市地区,即使有现代公共交通工具,人们也倾向于使用私人交通工具而不是公共交通工具。因此,在公共交通服务和用户数量方面,私人车辆所占的比例继续增加是一个令人关切的问题。本文希望通过使用系统动力学方法来全面地解决这个问题。系统动力学正在被用于开发雅加达运输部门动态复杂性的概念模型。通过捕获运输系统中涉及的元素,本研究还旨在捕获可能在增加服务和用户数量方面发挥重要作用的关键因素。这种整体的观点可以为政府可能采取的有效措施提供见解。系统图揭示了雅加达交通系统的关键组成部分和利益相关者。改善私人交通工具使用者的无障碍设施和出行限制,是制定政策时需要妥善处理的重点。行动者责任问题认知目标项目资金来源资助项目可行性资助项目资金分配适当的项目环境和林业部健康的生活环境私家车用户高增长减排国家警察交通管制私家车用户高增长减少交通事故和拥堵
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引用次数: 0
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Proceedings of the 4th Asia Pacific Conference on Research in Industrial and Systems Engineering
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