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A multi-timescale optimal operation strategy for an integrated energy system considering integrated demand response and equipment response time 考虑综合需求响应和设备响应时间的综合能源系统多时间尺度优化运行策略
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1063/5.0159626
Fugui Dong, Zihang Meng, Laihao Chi, Xiaofeng Wang
The response potential of demand-side resources is becoming increasingly significant in integrated energy system (IES) operations. In addition, to ensure the effective participation of system devices, their actual responsiveness at different timescales should be considered. Based on these considerations, this paper proposes an IES multi-timescale operation optimization strategy that incorporates multiple forms of integrated demand response (IDR) and considers the response characteristics of the equipment. First, the multi-timescale characteristics of IDR are analyzed. Moreover, a multi-timescale operation model of IES that comprises day-ahead, intraday, and real-time stages is further established. In the day-ahead dispatch, a low-carbon economic scheduling model is developed by considering the shifting demand response (DR) and the cost of carbon emissions. In the intraday scheduling, noting that cooling and heat energy transmission possess slow dynamic characteristics, a rolling optimization model for cooling/heating coupled equipment considering load shedding and substituting DR is established. In real-time scheduling, the output of electric/gas coupled equipment is adjusted. Finally, an industrial park-type IES in northern China was selected as an example for a case study. The results show that (1) the IDR multi-timescale response strategy can exploit different types of demand-side flexibility resources. After implementing the shifting DR, the peak-to-valley difference of the electric load curve was reduced by 20%, and the total system cost was reduced by 2.3%. After implementing load shedding, the maximum load differences per unit period of the electric, heat, and cooling load curves decreased by 18.7%, 40.0%, and 68.9%, respectively. (2) By refining the timescale of IES optimization, the proposed model can effectively ensure the energy supply and demand balance of the system under different load scenarios and reduce the system operation cost. After applying the model to simulation in three typical days (transition season, summer, and winter), the penalty costs of lost loads reduce by ¥3650, ¥3807, and ¥3599, respectively, and the total system costs decrease by 17.4%, 16.1%, and 16.2%, respectively.
需求侧资源的响应潜力在综合能源系统(IES)运营中变得越来越重要。此外,为了确保系统设备的有效参与,应考虑它们在不同时间尺度上的实际响应能力。基于这些考虑,本文提出了一种IES多时间尺度运行优化策略,该策略结合了多种形式的综合需求响应(IDR),并考虑了设备的响应特性。首先,分析了IDR的多时间尺度特征。此外,还进一步建立了IES的多时间尺度运行模型,包括日前、日内和实时阶段。在日前调度中,通过考虑需求响应变化和碳排放成本,建立了低碳经济调度模型。在日内调度中,考虑到冷、热能传递具有慢动态特性,建立了考虑减载和替代DR的冷、热耦合设备滚动优化模型。在实时调度中,调整电/气耦合设备的输出。最后,以中国北方某工业园区为例进行了案例分析。研究结果表明:(1)IDR多时间尺度响应策略可以利用不同类型的需求侧柔性资源。实施换挡DR后,电力负荷曲线的峰谷差降低了20%,系统总成本降低了2.3%。实施甩负荷后,电力、热力和冷负荷曲线的单位周期最大负荷差分别降低了18.7%、40.0%和68.9%。(2) 通过细化IES优化的时间尺度,该模型可以有效地确保系统在不同负载场景下的能源供需平衡,降低系统运行成本。将该模型应用于三个典型日子(过渡季节、夏季和冬季)的模拟后,损失负荷的惩罚成本分别降低了3650元、3807元和3599元,系统总成本分别降低17.4%、16.1%和16.2%。
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引用次数: 0
A novel data gaps filling method for solar PV output forecasting 一种新的太阳能光伏发电量预测数据缺口填充方法
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1063/5.0157570
I. Benitez, Jessa A. Ibañez, Cenon D. Lumabad, Jayson M. Cañete, F. N. De los Reyes, J. Principe
This study proposes a modified gaps filling method, expanding the column mean imputation method and evaluated using randomly generated missing values comprising 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% of the original data on power output. The XGBoost algorithm was implemented as a forecasting model using the original and processed datasets and two sources of solar radiation data, namely, Shortwave Radiation (SWR) from Advanced Himawari Imager 8 (AHI-8) and Surface Solar Radiation Downward (SSRD) from ERA5 global reanalysis data. The accuracy of the two sets of forecasted power output was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results show that by applying the proposed gap filling method and using SWR in forecasting solar photovoltaic (PV) output, the improvement in the RMSE and MAE values range from 12.52% to 24.30% and from 21.10% to 31.31%, respectively. Meanwhile, using SSRD, the improvement in the RMSE values range from 14.01% to 28.54% and MAE values from 22.39% to 35.53%. To further evaluate the accuracy of the proposed gap-filling method, the proposed method could be validated using different datasets and other forecasting methods. Future studies could also consider applying the said method to datasets with data gaps higher than 20%.
本研究提出了一种改进的缺口填充方法,扩展了列均值法,并使用随机生成的缺失值分别占原始输出数据的5%、10%、15%和20%进行评估。XGBoost算法是利用原始数据集和处理后的数据集,以及两个太阳辐射数据源,即来自Advanced Himawari Imager 8 (AHI-8)的短波辐射(SWR)和来自ERA5全球再分析数据的地表太阳向下辐射(SSRD),作为预测模型实现的。使用均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)对两组预测输出功率的准确性进行评估。结果表明:采用间隙填充方法和利用SWR预测光伏发电量,RMSE和MAE的改善幅度分别为12.52% ~ 24.30%和21.10% ~ 31.31%;同时,采用SSRD方法,RMSE和MAE的改善幅度分别为14.01% ~ 28.54%和22.39% ~ 35.53%。为了进一步评估所提出的空白填充方法的准确性,可以使用不同的数据集和其他预测方法验证所提出的方法。未来的研究还可以考虑将上述方法应用于数据差距大于20%的数据集。
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引用次数: 1
CSP-IES economic dispatch strategy with generalized energy storage and a conditional value-at-risk model 具有广义储能和条件风险值模型的CSP-IES经济调度策略
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1063/5.0161850
W. Chen, Haonan Lu, Zhanhong Wei
To promote the efficient use of energy storage and renewable energy consumption in the integrated energy system (IES), an economic dispatch strategy for the concentrating solar power (CSP)-IES with generalized energy storage and a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) model is proposed. First, considering the characteristics of energy storage and distributed power supply timing, a CSP-IES configuration is established by using a CSP plant to achieve thermal decoupling of the combined heat and power unit and by defining the thermal storage system of the CSP plant and the battery as the actual energy storage. Second, the fuzzy response of the logistic function is used to optimize the time-of-use tariff to guide load shifting, and the load shifting is defined as virtual energy storage. Third, the CSP-IES economic dispatch model is established to consider the carbon emission allowance model. Finally, considering the system uncertainty, a fuzzy chance constraint is used to relax the system power balance constraint, and then the trapezoidal fuzzy number is transformed into a deterministic equivalence class, and the CVaR model is used as a risk assessment index to quantify the risk cost of the system due to uncertainty. The CSP-IES economic dispatch model with CVaR is constructed. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed optimization model are verified by comparing various scenarios.
为了促进综合能源系统(IES)中储能和可再生能源消耗的有效利用,提出了一种具有广义储能和条件风险值(CVaR)模型的聚光太阳能(CSP)-IES的经济调度策略。首先,考虑到储能和分布式供电时序的特点,通过使用CSP工厂实现热电联产机组的热去耦,并将CSP工厂和电池的储热系统定义为实际储能,建立了CSP-IES配置。其次,利用逻辑函数的模糊响应来优化电价使用时间,以指导负荷转移,并将负荷转移定义为虚拟储能。第三,建立了考虑碳排放限额模型的CSP-IES经济调度模型。最后,考虑到系统的不确定性,使用模糊机会约束来放松系统功率平衡约束,然后将梯形模糊数转化为确定性等价类,并将CVaR模型作为风险评估指标来量化系统由于不确定性而产生的风险成本。建立了具有CVaR的CSP-IES经济调度模型。通过对各种场景的比较,验证了所提出的优化模型的可行性和有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Ultra-short-term wind speed prediction based on deep spatial-temporal residual network 基于深度时空残差网络的超短期风速预测
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1063/5.0153298
Xinhao Liang, Feihu Hu, X. Li, Lin Zhang, Xuan Feng, Mohammad Abu Gunmi
To maintain power system stability, accurate wind speed prediction is essential. Taking into account the temporal and spatial characteristics of wind speed in an integrated manner can improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. Considering complex nonlinear spatial factors such as wake effects in wind farms, a deep residual network is valuable in predicting wind speed with a high degree of accuracy. Wind speed data are typically a time series that requires feature extraction and attribute modeling, while maintaining signal integrity. In order to measure the importance of different temporal attributes and effectively aggregate temporal and spatial features, we used a parameter fusion matrix. We introduce a deep spatial-temporal residual network (DST-ResNet) for wind speed prediction that extracts the spatial-temporal characteristics, which can forecast the future wind speed of a multi-site wind farm in a particular region. In this model, wind speed data's nearby property and periodic property are separately modeled using a residual network. The outputs of the two temporal components are dynamically aggregated using a parameter fusion matrix and then fused with additional meteorological features to achieve wind speed prediction. Based on wind data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, our experiments show that the proposed DST-ResNet improves prediction accuracy by 8.90%.
为了保持电力系统的稳定性,准确的风速预测至关重要。综合考虑风速的时空特征,可以提高风速预测的准确性。考虑到复杂的非线性空间因素,如风电场中的尾流效应,深度残差网络在高精度预测风速方面很有价值。风速数据通常是一个时间序列,需要特征提取和属性建模,同时保持信号完整性。为了测量不同时间属性的重要性,并有效地聚合时间和空间特征,我们使用了参数融合矩阵。我们引入了一种用于风速预测的深度时空残差网络(DST-ResNet),该网络提取时空特征,可以预测特定地区多站点风电场的未来风速。在该模型中,使用残差网络分别对风速数据的邻近特性和周期特性进行建模。使用参数融合矩阵对两个时间分量的输出进行动态聚合,然后与附加的气象特征进行融合,以实现风速预测。基于国家可再生能源实验室的风力数据,我们的实验表明,所提出的DST ResNet将预测精度提高了8.90%。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating horizontal-axis wind turbine aerodynamics using cascade flows 利用叶栅流研究水平轴风力涡轮机的空气动力学
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1063/5.0147946
Narges Golmirzaee, D. Wood
The simplest aerodynamic model of horizontal-axis wind turbines is the blade element momentum theory, which assumes that the blades behave as airfoils, but a correct two-dimensional representation is an infinite cascade of lifting bodies. This study analyzes the conventional and impulse forms of the forces on cascades of airfoils at spacings and pitch angles typical of wind turbine applications. OpenFOAM software was used to simulate steady, incompressible flow at a Reynolds number of 6×106 through cascades of NACA 0012 airfoils. The force equations agree well (less than 1% error) with the forces determined directly from OpenFOAM for four spacing ratios. We concentrate on the “wake vorticity” term, which is ignored in blade element momentum analysis. At a pitch angle of 90°, this term balances the viscous drag when the angle of attack is zero. At zero pitch, which models the outer region of a wind turbine blade at a high tip speed ratio, the term can account for 27% of the axial thrust when the angle of attack is about 4°. The normal force equation, like the angular momentum equation for wind turbines, has no viscous term, which forces the body drag to contribute to the circulation in the wake. It is shown that the airfoil assumption is conservative in that cascade elements have higher lift-to-drag ratios than airfoils at the same angle of attack. An associated result is that separation occurs at higher angles of attack on a cascade element compared to an airfoil.
最简单的水平轴风力涡轮机气动模型是叶片单元动量理论,该理论假设叶片的行为与翼型相似,但正确的二维表示是升力体的无限级联。本研究分析了传统和脉冲形式的力在叶栅上的间距和俯仰角风力发电机的典型应用。使用OpenFOAM软件模拟了NACA 0012翼型叶栅在雷诺数6×106下的稳定不可压缩流动。对于四个间距比,力方程与直接从OpenFOAM中确定的力一致(误差小于1%)。本文主要研究叶片单元动量分析中忽略的“尾迹涡度”项。在俯仰角为90°时,当迎角为零时,该项平衡了粘性阻力。在零俯仰时,它模拟了高叶尖速比的风力涡轮机叶片的外部区域,当迎角约为4°时,该项可占轴向推力的27%。法向力方程,就像风力涡轮机的角动量方程一样,没有粘性项,这迫使身体阻力在尾迹中促进循环。结果表明,翼型假设是保守的,因为在相同的迎角下,叶栅元件比翼型具有更高的升阻比。一个相关的结果是,分离发生在较高的攻角对级联元素相比翼型。
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引用次数: 1
Analysis of tar and pyrolysis gas from low-rank coal pyrolysis assisted by apple branch 苹果枝辅助低阶煤热解焦油及热解气体分析
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1063/5.0156660
Ning Yin, Y. Song, Lei Wu, P. Dong, C. Wang, Jun Zhou, Xinwei Zhang
Low-rank coal (LRC) pyrolysis assisted by biomass can realize the clean and efficient conversion utilization of LRC. The gas and tar characteristics obtained from co-pyrolysis of apple branch (AB) and LRC at different stages were studied with TG-FTIR and Py-GC/MS. It was found that the co-pyrolysis process could be divided into four stages, and the weight loss rate of AB+LRC was 24.03% in the second stage (194.60–404.63 °C), lower than the calculated value. However, the third stage (404.63–594.33 °C) weight loss rate was 13.33%, higher than the calculated value. The content of volatile products increased during co-pyrolysis, resulting in a higher total weight loss rate than the calculated value. There was a synergistic effect between AB and LRC. Aromatic hydrocarbon release intensity in co-pyrolysis products was significantly enhanced in the second and third stages, and it was stronger than that of pyrolysis alone; in contrast, the release intensity of gaseous products was weaker than that of pyrolysis alone. In co-pyrolysis tar, the content of monocyclic and bicyclic aromatic hydrocarbons was increased. The C<10 component was 86.48%, higher than the calculated value of 12.68%. The proportion of aromatic hydrocarbons and phenols increased significantly compared with the calculated value.
生物质辅助低阶煤热解可实现低阶煤的清洁高效转化利用。采用TG-FTIR和Py-GC/MS对苹果枝(AB)和LRC在不同阶段共热解所得气体和焦油特征进行了研究。结果表明,共热解过程可分为4个阶段,第二阶段(194.60 ~ 404.63℃)AB+LRC失重率为24.03%,低于计算值。而第三阶段(404.63-594.33℃)失重率为13.33%,高于计算值。共热解过程中挥发性产物含量增加,导致总失重率高于计算值。AB与LRC之间存在协同效应。共热解产物中芳烃释放强度在第二和第三阶段显著增强,且强于单独热解;相比之下,气态产物的释放强度弱于单独热解。在共热解焦油中,单环芳烃和双环芳烃的含量增加。C<10组分占86.48%,高于计算值12.68%。与计算值相比,芳烃和酚类化合物的比例明显增加。
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引用次数: 0
SWSA transformer: A forecasting method of ultra-short-term wind speed from an offshore wind farm using global attention mechanism SWSA变压器:一种基于全球关注机制的海上风电场超短期风速预测方法
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1063/5.0153511
Shengmao Lin, Jing Wang, Xuefang Xu, Hang Tan, Peiming Shi, Ruixiong Li
Accurate ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting is great significance to ensure large scale integration of wind power into the power grid, but the randomness, instability, and non-linear nature of wind speed make it very difficult to be predicted accurately. To solve this problem, shifted window stationary attention transformer (SWSA transformer) is proposed based on a global attention mechanism for ultra-short-term forecasting of wind speed. SWSA transformer can sufficiently extract these complicated features of wind speed to improve the prediction accuracy of wind speed. First, positional embedding and temporal embedding are added at the bottom of the proposed method structure to mark wind speed series, which enables complicated global features of wind speed to be more effectively extracted by attention. Second, a shifted window is utilized to enhance the ability of attention to capture features from the edge sequences. Third, a stationary attention mechanism is applied to not only extract features of wind speed but also optimize the encoder-decoder network for smoothing wind speed sequences. Finally, the predicted values of wind speed are obtained using the calculation in the decoder network. To verify the proposed method, tests are performed utilizing data from an real offshore wind farm. The results show that the proposed method outperforms many popular models evaluated by many indexes including gated recurrent unit, Gaussian process regression, long-short term memory, shared weight long short-term memory network, and shared weight long short-term memory network -Gaussian process regression, in terms of mean absolute error, mean square error (MSE), root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, mean square percentage error, and coefficient of determination (R2).
准确的超短期风速预测对于确保风电大规模接入电网具有重要意义,但风速的随机性、不稳定性和非线性使其很难准确预测。为了解决这一问题,提出了一种基于全局注意力机制的移动窗口平稳注意力变换器(SWSA变换器),用于风速的超短期预测。SWSA变压器可以充分提取这些复杂的风速特征,提高风速的预测精度。首先,在所提出的方法结构的底部添加了位置嵌入和时间嵌入来标记风速序列,这使得注意力能够更有效地提取风速的复杂全局特征。其次,利用移位窗口来增强注意力从边缘序列捕获特征的能力。第三,应用平稳注意力机制不仅提取风速特征,而且优化编码器-解码器网络以平滑风速序列。最后,利用解码器网络中的计算得到风速的预测值。为了验证所提出的方法,利用真实海上风电场的数据进行了测试。结果表明,所提出的方法在平均绝对误差、均方误差(MSE)、均方根误差、,平均绝对百分比误差、均方百分比误差和决定系数(R2)。
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引用次数: 0
Comprehensive review of power system oscillations in large-scale power electronic-based renewable energy power plants 大型电力电子可再生能源发电厂电力系统振荡综述
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1063/5.0148188
Nina Liu, Hong Wang, Dangsheng Zhou, He Shi, Zhe Chen
Recently, the large-scale integration of power electronic-based renewable energy power plants has changed the operation and response mechanism of the power system, resulting in several emerging oscillation issues that have seriously been threatening the system's stability. It helps us to recognize the similarities and differences among the triggering causes and formation mechanisms of oscillation scenarios. Following several typical oscillation events in the real world and the timescale decomposition method, this paper comprehensively reviews the wide-bandwidth oscillation study from the aspects of the analysis methods, possible cause, mechanism, and mitigation solution. The paper provides a perspective to classify the oscillations in the modern power systems on the basis of the oscillation frequency and the main oscillation module. This classification framework involves not only emerging oscillations in the power system with large-scale renewable energy sources integration but also includes typical oscillations in traditional power systems. It also systematically presents the relative relationship, development process, and inner influence between emerging oscillations and typical oscillations. Based on this review, the future research is suggested to focus on the relationship between different analytical methods or oscillation mechanisms, as well as the stability risk assessment of hybrid alternating current and direct current power systems.
最近,基于电力电子的可再生能源发电厂的大规模集成改变了电力系统的运行和响应机制,导致了一些新出现的振荡问题,这些问题严重威胁着系统的稳定性。它有助于我们认识到振荡情景的触发原因和形成机制之间的异同。根据现实世界中的几个典型振荡事件和时间尺度分解方法,本文从分析方法、可能的原因、机制和缓解方案等方面全面回顾了宽带振荡的研究。本文从振荡频率和主要振荡模块的角度对现代电力系统中的振荡进行了分类。该分类框架不仅涉及大规模可再生能源整合的电力系统中出现的振荡,还包括传统电力系统中的典型振荡。系统地介绍了新兴振荡与典型振荡的相对关系、发展过程及其内在影响。基于这一综述,建议未来的研究重点是不同分析方法或振荡机制之间的关系,以及交流和直流混合电力系统的稳定性风险评估。
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引用次数: 0
Life cycle assessment of an agrivoltaic system with conventional potato production 传统马铃薯生产的农业光伏系统的生命周期评估
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1063/5.0156779
Christin Busch, K. Wydra
Climate change and land use conflicts represent two of the greatest challenges worldwide. One possible solution are agrivoltaic (APV) systems, in which agricultural production is combined with a photovoltaic (PV) system in the same area. However, there is insufficient information on the environmental impacts of this technology. Therefore, the goal of this study was to evaluate the environmental impacts of an agrivoltaic system with conventional potato production using life cycle assessment (LCA). For this purpose, three scenarios were developed and compared in terms of their environmental impact: An APV system with combined potato and electricity production (scenario 1), a system with spatially separated potato and photovoltaic (PV) electricity production (scenario 2), and a potato scenario in which the electricity purchase was covered by the German electricity mix (scenario 3). The APV system (scenario 1) and the system with ground-mounted PV modules (scenario 2) performed better than scenario 3. In the Land Use category, scenario 1 caused the lowest environmental impact. Comparing the PV scenarios, scenario 2 had lower impacts in 12 of the 17 impact categories due to lower steel consumption. Also, comparing scenario 1 with scenario 3, lower impacts of the APV system were observed in 13 categories. The impacts of APV systems are generally similar to those of ground mounted PV systems, and impacts of both PV systems are lower than the existing, conventional systems of separate energy and crop production. However, due to ongoing advances in system design, materials used for the mounting structures and in the development of solar modules, it can be expected that the impact of APV will be significantly reduced in the future.
气候变化和土地使用冲突是全球面临的两大挑战。一个可能的解决方案是农业光伏(APV)系统,其中农业生产与同一地区的光伏(PV)系统相结合。然而,关于这项技术对环境的影响的资料不足。因此,本研究的目的是利用生命周期评估(LCA)来评估具有传统马铃薯生产的农业光伏系统的环境影响。为此目的,制定了三种方案,并就其对环境的影响进行了比较:马铃薯与电力生产结合的APV系统(场景1)、马铃薯与光伏发电空间分离的系统(场景2)和马铃薯购电由德国混合电力覆盖的场景(场景3)。APV系统(场景1)和地面安装光伏模块的系统(场景2)的性能优于场景3。在土地用途类别中,情景1造成的环境影响最小。与光伏情景相比,由于钢材消耗较低,情景2在17个影响类别中有12个影响类别的影响较低。此外,对比情景1和情景3,在13个类别中,APV系统的影响较低。APV系统的影响与地面光伏系统的影响大致相似,并且这两种光伏系统的影响都低于现有的传统能源和作物分离生产系统。然而,由于系统设计的不断进步,用于安装结构的材料和太阳能组件的开发,可以预期,未来APV的影响将大大减少。
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引用次数: 0
A design of ultra-short-term power prediction algorithm driven by wind turbine operation and maintenance data for LSTM-SA neural network 基于LSTM-SA神经网络的风电机组运维数据超短期功率预测算法设计
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1063/5.0159574
Hong-Qiang You, Renyuan Jia, Xiaolei Chen, Lingxiang Huang
Due to factors such as meteorology and geography, the generated power of wind turbines fluctuates frequently. In this way, power changes should be predicted in grid connection to take control measures in time. In this paper, an operation and maintenance data-driven LSTM-SA (long short-term memory with self-attention) prediction algorithm is designed to predict the ultra-short-term power of wind turbines. First, the wind turbine operation and maintenance data, including wind speed, blade deflection angle, yaw angle, humidity, and temperature, are subjected to feature selection by using the Pearson correlation coefficient method and the Lasso algorithm, thereby establishing the correlation between wind speed, blade deflection angle, and out power. Then, full-connect neural network is trained to establish a mapping model of wind speed, blade deflection angle, and out power. The power change rate k is calculated by the derivative of output power to wind speed. Finally, based on the historical power data and the power change rate k, the LSTM neural network power prediction model is trained to calculate the output power prediction value. In order to increase the training efficiency and reduce the delay, the self-attention mechanism is used to optimize the hidden layer of the LSTM model. The test results show that, compared with similar prediction algorithms, this algorithm has higher prediction accuracy, faster convergence speed, and better stability, which can solve the problem of accurately predicting ultra-short-term power when wind power training data is inadequate.
由于气象和地理等因素,风力发电机的发电量波动频繁。通过这种方式,应预测电网连接中的功率变化,以便及时采取控制措施。本文设计了一种运行和维护数据驱动的LSTM-SA(具有自注意的长短期记忆)预测算法来预测风力涡轮机的超短期功率。首先,使用Pearson相关系数法和Lasso算法对包括风速、叶片偏转角、偏航角、湿度和温度在内的风机运行和维护数据进行特征选择,从而建立风速、叶片偏转角和输出功率之间的相关性。然后,对全连接神经网络进行训练,建立风速、叶片偏转角和输出功率的映射模型。功率变化率k通过输出功率对风速的导数来计算。最后,基于历史功率数据和功率变化率k,训练LSTM神经网络功率预测模型来计算输出功率预测值。为了提高训练效率和减少延迟,使用自注意机制对LSTM模型的隐藏层进行优化。测试结果表明,与类似的预测算法相比,该算法具有更高的预测精度、更快的收敛速度和更好的稳定性,可以解决风电训练数据不足时超短期功率的准确预测问题。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy
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