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Have Young Adults’ Opinions on the Social Role of the State Changed since the 2008 Economic Crisis? 自2008年经济危机以来,年轻人对国家社会角色的看法发生了变化吗?
Pub Date : 2020-07-09 DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2020.514t.2013
Adrien Papuchon
[eng] The 2008 economic crisis, which has had a significant impact on young adults’entry into the labour market, may have changed their opinions on social policies and expenditure. Data from the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP, 2006, 2016) allow analysis and comparison of these opinions and their evolution in 12 European countries, as well as in the United States and New Zealand. We also examine the differences between the opinions of young adults and other adults and their evolution over time. In order to take into account differences in national contexts, we use the standard typology of welfare state regimes. Young adults’ support for public intervention in social issues increased between 2006 and 2016, except in the Scandinavian countries. Differences of opinion with their elders have increased in liberal countries and decreased in conservative countries, while the desire for increased social welfare remains high in countries where social welfare was least developed.
2008年的经济危机对年轻人进入劳动力市场产生了重大影响,可能已经改变了他们对社会政策和支出的看法。来自国际社会调查计划(ISSP, 2006年,2016年)的数据允许分析和比较这些观点及其在12个欧洲国家以及美国和新西兰的演变。我们还研究了年轻人和其他成年人之间的观点差异及其随时间的演变。为了考虑到国家背景的差异,我们使用福利国家制度的标准类型学。2006年至2016年间,除了斯堪的纳维亚国家之外,年轻人对公共干预社会问题的支持有所增加。与老年人的意见分歧在自由国家有所增加,在保守国家有所减少,而在社会福利最不发达的国家,对增加社会福利的渴望仍然很高。
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引用次数: 0
Political Failure, Citizen Feedback, and Representative Bureaucracy: The Interplay of Politics, Public Management and Governance 政治失败、公民反馈与代议制官僚制:政治、公共管理与治理的相互作用
Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.52372/kjps35201
K. Meier
This article proposes that two major trends - the failure of political institutions and the globalization of minority rights - present major challenges for public administration. These changes mean that public administrators must now perform roles that were previously the realm of elected officials in relation to the broader public. Specific concerns related to the public’s ability to evaluate programs and the enhanced role and limits on representative bureaucracy are discussed.
本文提出两个主要趋势- -政治体制的失败和少数人权利的全球化- -对公共行政构成重大挑战。这些变化意味着公共行政人员现在必须在与广大公众的关系中发挥以前是民选官员的作用。讨论了与公众评估项目的能力以及代议制官僚机构的作用和限制的增强有关的具体问题。
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引用次数: 1
The Contribution of CSR during the COVID-19 Period in Greece: A Step Forward 2019冠状病毒病期间企业社会责任在希腊的贡献:向前迈进一步
Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.12681/hapscpbs.24971
D. Kritas, S. Tzagkarakis, Zoi Atsipoulianaki, Symeon Sidiropoulos
The spread of the Covid-19 brought global institutions, societies, states and economies in a critical position as they encounter a new worldwide multilevel crisis. At the same time, states have had to handle this crisis acquiring an interventionist role, protecting the social and economic cohesion, providing better health care services for their citizens and investing in scientific research, as a means to restrict this new pandemic. In order to handle that situation and its consequences, the use of all the available resources became necessary as well as the improvement of the cooperation between the private and the public sector. In Greece private sector has shown an unprecedented willingness for Greece’s CSR tradition, to contribute government’s efforts.
新冠肺炎疫情的蔓延使全球机构、社会、国家和经济面临新的全球性多层次危机,处于关键地位。与此同时,各国必须应对这场危机,发挥干预作用,保护社会和经济凝聚力,为其公民提供更好的保健服务,并投资于科学研究,以此作为限制这一新的流行病的手段。为了处理这种情况及其后果,必须利用所有现有资源,并改善私营部门和公共部门之间的合作。在希腊,私营部门对希腊的企业社会责任传统表现出前所未有的意愿,愿意为政府的努力做出贡献。
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引用次数: 8
Does a District-Vote Matter for the Behavior of Politicians? A Textual Analysis of Parliamentary Speeches 选区投票对政治家的行为有影响吗?议会演讲文本分析
Pub Date : 2020-06-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3644358
Andreas Born, Aljoscha Janssen
In most democracies, members of parliament are either elected over a party list or by a district. We use a discontinuity in the German parliamentary system to investigate the causal effect of a district-election on an MP’s conformity with her party-line. A district-election does not affect roll call voting behavior causally, possibly due to overall high adherence to party voting. Analyzing the parliamentary speeches of each MP allows us to overcome the high party discipline with regard to parliamentary voting. Using textual analysis and machine learning techniques, we create two measures of closeness of an MP’s speeches to her party. We find that district-elected members of parliament do not differ, in terms of speeches, from those of their party-peers who have been elected through closed party lists. However, both speeches and voting correlate with district characteristics suggesting that district-elections allow districts to select more similar politicians.
在大多数民主国家,议会成员要么是由政党名单选举产生,要么是由地区选举产生。我们使用德国议会制度的不连续性来调查地区选举对国会议员与其政党路线的一致性的因果影响。地区选举不影响唱名投票行为的因果关系,可能是由于总体上高度坚持政党投票。分析每位议员的国会发言,可以克服在议会选举中严格的党纪。使用文本分析和机器学习技术,我们创建了两种衡量议员演讲与其政党密切程度的标准。我们发现,就演讲而言,地区选举的国会议员与通过封闭政党名单当选的同党议员没有什么不同。然而,演讲和投票都与地区特征相关,这表明地区选举允许地区选择更多相似的政治家。
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引用次数: 1
U.S. Populist Rhetoric and Currency Returns 美国民粹主义言论和货币回报
Pub Date : 2020-05-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3610518
I. Filippou, A. Gozluklu, My T. Nguyen, Mark P. Taylor
We develop a novel measure of U.S. populist rhetoric. Aggregate Populist Rhetoric (APR) Index spikes around populist events. We decompose the APR Index into sub-indices. We show that APR Index and International Relations sub-index are negatively priced in the cross-section of currency excess returns. Currencies that perform well (badly) when U.S. populist rhetoric is high yield low (high) expected excess returns. Investors require high risk premium for holding currencies which underperform in times of rising U.S. populist rhetoric, especially in the post-crisis period. A long-short strategy that buys (sells) currencies with high (low) exposure to U.S. populism offers strong diversification benefits.
我们开发了一种衡量美国民粹主义言论的新方法。民粹主义言论综合指数(APR)在民粹主义事件期间飙升。我们将APR指数分解为子指数。我们发现,在货币超额收益的横截面上,年利率指数和国际关系子指数是负定价的。当美国民粹主义言论高收益时,表现良好(糟糕)的货币低(高)预期超额回报。在美国民粹主义言论升温之际,尤其是在危机后时期,投资者持有表现不佳的货币需要较高的风险溢价。买进(卖出)受美国民粹主义影响高(低)的货币的多(空)空策略,具有很强的分散风险的好处。
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引用次数: 2
Electoral Intermediaries 选举的中介
Pub Date : 2020-05-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3611346
Jorge Gallego, Christopher Li, Léonard Wantchékon
Democratic elections increasingly involve political intermediaries (e.g. grassroots organizations or political brokers). We develop a model of electoral competition in which candidates must decide between brokers (patronage) and grassroots organizations. Our model shows that patronage is more likely when public offices are relatively more “valuable” for brokers. Moreover, setups that constrain candidates from funding grassroots campaigns and weaken ties between politicians and citizens make patronage more likely. We show that patronage negatively affects citizens’ welfare, as winning brokers turned civil servants undermine the quality of governments. Finally, our model explores the role of policy deliberation in curbing patronage politics.
民主选举越来越多地涉及政治中介(如基层组织或政治掮客)。我们开发了一种选举竞争模式,候选人必须在经纪人(赞助)和基层组织之间做出选择。我们的模型显示,当公职对经纪人来说相对更“有价值”时,赞助更有可能发生。此外,限制候选人资助基层竞选活动、削弱政客与公民之间联系的机制更有可能促成赞助。我们表明,任人唯亲会对公民福利产生负面影响,因为中介人变成公务员会破坏政府的质量。最后,我们的模型探讨了政策审议在遏制庇护政治中的作用。
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引用次数: 1
Policy Priority Inference: A Computational Method for the Analysis of Sustainable Development 政策优先推理:可持续发展分析的一种计算方法
Pub Date : 2020-05-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3604041
Omar A. Guerrero, Gonzalo Castañeda Ramos
We develop a computational framework to support the planning and evaluation of development strategies towards the 2030 Agenda. The methodology takes into account the complexities of the political economy underpinning the policymaking process, for example, the multidimensionality of development, the interlinkages between these dimensions, the inefficiencies of implementing policy interventions, as well as the institutional factors that promote or disencourage these inefficiencies. The framework is scalable and usable with publicly-available development-indicator data, and it can be further refined as more data becomes available, for example, on public expenditure. We demonstrate its usage through an application for the Mexican federal government. For this, we infer historical policy priorities, i.e. non-observable allocations of transformative resources that generate changes in development indicators. We also show how to use the tool to assess the feasibility of development goals, to measure policy coherence, and to identify accelerators. Overall, the tool provides a systemic framework that allows policymakers and other stakeholders to embrace a complexity view to tackle the challenges of the Sustainable Development Goals.
我们开发了一个计算框架,以支持规划和评估实现《2030年议程》的发展战略。该方法考虑到支持决策过程的政治经济的复杂性,例如,发展的多维性、这些方面之间的相互联系、执行政策干预的低效率,以及促进或阻碍这些低效率的体制因素。该框架可扩展,可使用公开的发展指标数据,并可在获得更多数据(例如公共支出数据)后进一步完善。我们通过一个墨西哥联邦政府的应用程序来演示它的用法。为此,我们推断了历史上的政策优先事项,即产生发展指标变化的转型资源的不可观察分配。我们还展示了如何使用该工具来评估发展目标的可行性、衡量政策一致性以及确定加速因素。总体而言,该工具提供了一个系统框架,使政策制定者和其他利益攸关方能够从复杂性的角度来应对可持续发展目标的挑战。
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引用次数: 4
Environmental Pollution & the Political Economy of Public Debt 环境污染与公共债务的政治经济学
Pub Date : 2020-05-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3592355
Maximilian Kellner
This paper analyzes the political economy of government debt when elected politicians decide about the distribution of public funds between a clean and a polluting public good. When provision of the polluting good creates a stock of climate externalities, strategic incentives for the incumbent government arise from both a budget and emission interaction. In this framework, reelection uncertainty leads to inefficiently low public savings (or even debt) which are attenuated by the emission interaction, while first period pollution decreases regardless of the future government's identity. If the incumbent government competes for office against an environmentalists' party, the total welfare loss from emissions also decreases as a direct result of reelection uncertainty.
本文分析了当民选政治家决定公共资金在清洁和污染公共产品之间的分配时,政府债务的政治经济学。当污染产品的供应产生了大量的气候外部性时,对现任政府的战略激励来自预算和排放的相互作用。在这一框架下,连任的不确定性导致公共储蓄(甚至债务)的低效率,这被排放相互作用减弱,而无论未来政府的身份如何,第一阶段的污染都会减少。如果现任政府与环保主义政党竞争,排放造成的总福利损失也会减少,这是连任不确定性的直接结果。
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引用次数: 0
Countably Infinite Utilitarian Aggregation 可数无限功利聚合
Pub Date : 2020-05-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3633541
Tangren Feng, Shaowei Ke, A. McMillan
We extend Harsanyi's (1955) utilitarianism theorem to an infinite-horizon multi-generation setting: Under some additional assumptions, the Pareto condition is equivalent to utilitarian aggregation and the utilitarian weights are unique. Our results facilitate analysis of the properties of utilitarian weights, such as the limiting behavior of utilitarian weights for distant future generations, and the comparative statics of utilitarian weights as the social discount factor or the social risk attitude changes. Among other findings, we show that a higher social discount rate is associated with a more unequal assignment of utilitarian weights across generations.
我们将Harsanyi(1955)的功利主义定理推广到无限视界的多代环境中:在一些附加的假设下,帕累托条件等价于功利聚合,并且功利权值是唯一的。我们的研究结果有助于分析功利权重的性质,例如功利权重对遥远后代的限制行为,以及功利权重在社会贴现因子或社会风险态度变化时的比较静力学。在其他研究结果中,我们发现,较高的社会贴现率与代际间更不平等的功利权重分配有关。
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引用次数: 1
Media, Pulpit, and Populist Persuasion: Evidence from Father Coughlin 媒体、讲坛和民粹主义说服:来自考夫林神父的证据
Pub Date : 2020-04-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3583114
Tianyi Wang
New technologies make it easier for charismatic individuals to influence others. This paper studies the political impact of the first populist radio personality in American history. Father Charles Coughlin blended populist demagoguery, anti-Semitism, and fascist sympathies to create a hugely popular radio program that attracted tens of millions of listeners throughout the 1930s. I evaluate the short- and long-term impacts of exposure to Father Coughlin's radio program. Exploiting variation in the radio signal strength as a result of topographic factors, I find that a one standard deviation increase in exposure to Coughlin's anti-FDR broadcast reduced FDR's vote share by about two percentage points in the 1936 presidential election. Effects were larger in counties with more Catholics and persisted after Father Coughlin left the air. An alternative difference-in-differences strategy exploiting Coughlin's switch in attitude towards FDR during 1932-1936 confirms the results. Moreover, I find that places more exposed to Coughlin’s broadcast in the late 1930s were more likely to form a local branch of the pro-Nazi German-American Bund, sell fewer war bonds during WWII, and harbor more negative feelings towards Jews in the long run.
新技术使有魅力的个人更容易影响他人。本文研究了美国历史上第一位民粹主义广播名人的政治影响。查尔斯·考夫林神父将民粹主义煽动、反犹太主义和同情法西斯主义混合在一起,创造了一个非常受欢迎的广播节目,在整个20世纪30年代吸引了数千万听众。我评估了接触考夫林神父的广播节目的短期和长期影响。利用地形因素导致的无线电信号强度的变化,我发现,在1936年的总统选举中,考夫林反罗斯福广播的曝光率每增加一个标准差,罗斯福的选票份额就会减少约两个百分点。在天主教徒较多的县,这种影响更大,并且在考夫林神父离开后仍然存在。另一种利用Coughlin在1932-1936年间对罗斯福态度转变的差异中的差异策略证实了结果。此外,我发现,在20世纪30年代后期,更多地接触到考夫林广播的地方,更有可能形成亲纳粹的德美外滩的地方分支,在二战期间出售的战争债券更少,从长远来看,对犹太人的负面情绪更多。
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引用次数: 36
期刊
Public Choice: Analysis of Collective Decision-Making eJournal
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