Global Change Biology最新文献

Droughts affect soil microbial abundance and functions—key parameters of plant–soil carbon (C) allocation dynamics. However, the impact of drought may be modified by the mean climatic conditions to which the soil microbiome has previously been exposed. In a future warmer and drier world, effects of drought may therefore differ from those observed in studies that simulate drought under current climatic conditions. To investigate this, we used the field experiment ‘Hohenheim Climate Change,’ an arable field where predicted drier and warmer mean climatic conditions had been simulated for 12 years. In April 2021, we exposed this agroecosystem to 8 weeks of drought with subsequent rewetting. Before drought, at peak drought, and after rewetting, we pulse-labelled winter wheat in situ with ¹³CO₂ to trace recently assimilated C from plants to soil microorganisms and back to the atmosphere. Severe drought decreased soil respiration (−35%) and abundance of gram-positive bacteria (−15%) but had no effect on gram-negative bacteria, fungi, and total microbial biomass C. This pattern was not affected by the mean precipitation regime to which the microbes had been pre-exposed. Reduced mean precipitation had, however, a legacy effect by decreasing the proportion of recently assimilated C allocated to the microbial biomass C pool (−50%). Apart from that, continuous soil warming was an important driver of C fluxes throughout our experiment, increasing plant biomass, root sugar concentration, labile C, and respiration. Warming also shifted microorganisms toward utilizing soil organic matter as a C source instead of recently assimilated compounds. Our study found that moderate shifts in mean precipitation patterns can impose a legacy on how plant-derived C is allocated in the microbial biomass of a temperate agroecosystem during drought. The overarching effect of soil warming, however, suggests that how temperate agroecosystems respond to drought will mainly be affected by future temperature increases.

Increasing temperatures in the tropics will reduce performance of trees and agroforestry species and may lead to lasting damage and leaf death. One criterion to determine future forest resilience is to evaluate damage caused by temperature on Photosystem-II (PSII), a particularly sensitive component of photosynthesis. The temperature at which 50% of PSII function is lost (T₅₀) is a widely used measure of irreversible damage to leaves. To assess vulnerability to high temperatures, studies have measured T₅₀ or leaf temperatures, but rarely both. Further, because extant leaf temperature records are short, duration of exposure above thresholds like T₅₀ has not been considered. Finally, these studies do not directly assess the effect of threshold exceedance on leaves. To understand how often, and how long, leaf temperatures exceed critical thresholds, we measured leaf temperatures of forest and agroforestry species in a tropical forest in the Western Ghats of India where air temperatures are high. We quantified species-specific physiological thresholds and assessed leaf damage after high-temperature exposure. We found that leaf temperatures already exceed T₅₀. However, continuous exposure durations above critical thresholds are very skewed with most events lasting for much less than 30 min. As T₅₀ was measured after a 30-min exposure, our results suggest that threshold exceedances and exposure durations for lasting damage are currently not reached and will rarely be reached if maximum air temperatures increase by 4°C. Consistent with this, we found only minor indications of heat damage in the forest species. However, there were indications of heat-induced reduction in PSII function and damage in the agroforestry leaves which have lower T₅₀. Our findings suggest that, for forest species, while high-temperature thresholds may be surpassed, durations of exposure above thresholds remain short, and therefore, are unlikely to lead to irreversible damage and leaf death, even under 4°C warming.

Antarctic toothfish are a commercially exploited upper-level predator in the Southern Ocean. As many of its prey, the ectothermic, water-breathing Antarctic toothfish is specifically adapted to the temperature and oxygen conditions present in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. Additionally, the life cycle of Antarctic toothfish depends on sea-ice dynamics and the transport of individuals by currents between regions with different prey. To assess the impact of 21st-century climate change on potential interactions of Antarctic toothfish and its prey, we here employ the extended aerobic growth index (AGI), which quantifies the effect of ocean temperature and oxygen levels on the habitat viability of individual species. We quantify changes in predator–prey interactions by a change in viable habitat overlap as obtained with the AGI. As environmental data, we use future projections for four emission scenarios from the model FESOM-REcoM, which is specifically designed for applications on and near the Antarctic continental shelf. For the two highest-emission scenarios, we find that warming and deoxygenation in response to climate change cause a subsurface decline of up to 40% in viable habitat overlap of Antarctic toothfish with important prey species, such as Antarctic silverfish and icefish. Acknowledging regional differences, our results demonstrate that warming and deoxygenation alone can significantly perturb predator–prey habitat overlap in the Southern Ocean. Our findings highlight the need for a better quantitative understanding of climate change impacts on Antarctic species to better constrain future ecosystem impacts of climate change.

Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate mean state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing variability, will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial-design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (−16% gross primary production), carbon pools (−35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (−33% and −22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively). By unambiguously parsing the effects of changing climate mean versus variability and quantifying their nonadditive impacts, this study lays a foundation for more robust understanding and prediction of agroecosystems' vulnerability to 21st-century climate change.

Climatic variation can play a critical role in driving synchronous and asynchronous patterns in the expression of life history characteristics across vast spatiotemporal scales. The synchronisation of traits, such as an individual's growth rate, under environmental stress may indicate a loss of phenotypic diversity and thus increased population vulnerability to stochastic deleterious events. In contrast, synchronous growth under favourable ecological conditions and asynchrony during unfavourable conditions may help population resilience and buffer against the negative implications of future environmental variability. Despite the significant implications of growth synchrony and asynchrony to population productivity and persistence, little is known about its causes and consequences either within or among fish populations. This is especially true for long-lived deep-sea species that inhabit environments characterised by large-scale interannual and decadal changes, which could propagate growth synchrony across vast distances. We developed otolith growth chronologies for three deep-sea fishes (Etelis spp.) over 65° of longitude and 20° of latitude across the Indo-Pacific region. Using reconstructed time series of interannual growth from six distinct Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), we assessed the level of spatial synchrony at the individual-, population- and species-scale. Across five decades of data, complex patterns of synchronous and asynchronous growth were apparent for adult populations within and among EEZs of the Pacific Ocean, mediated by shifts in oceanographic phenomena such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Overall, our results indicate that the degree of synchrony in biological traits at depth depends on life history stage, spatiotemporal scales of environmental variability and the influence of ecological factors such as competition and dispersal. By determining the magnitude and timing of spatially synchronous growth at depth and its links to environmental variability, we can better understand fluctuations in deep-sea productivity and its vulnerability to future environmental stressors, which are key considerations for sustainability.