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Payment for Ecosystem Services: institutional arrangements for a changing climate in the Chilean Mediterranean Region 为生态系统服务付费:智利地中海地区应对气候变化的制度安排
Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00132-2
Anahí Ocampo-Melgar, Pilar Barría, Claudia Cerda, Alejandro Venegas-González, Javiera Fernández, Raúl Díaz-Vasconcellos, Javier Zamora
Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) can promote different types of governance arrangements to address the triple challenge of biodiversity loss, climate change and air pollution. These institutional arrangements, however, do not explicitly incorporate climate change into the ecosystem’s capacity to provide services. In this study, we explore why and how to incorporate climate uncertainties using as example the Altos de Cantillana Nature Reserve, a unique biodiversity hotspot in Central Chile. First, prioritized ecosystem services (ES) were grouped in bundles and linked to measured and modeled impacts of climate change on key water-related processes. Second, institutional barriers to PES were identified from case studies and analyzed considering challenges in a changing climate. Finally, bundles with different levels of risk were matched to six recommendations that better incorporate levels of risks to the uncertainty of climate change into Payment for Ecosystem Services in Chile.
生态系统服务付费 (PES) 可促进不同类型的治理安排,以应对生物多样性丧失、气候变化和空气污染的三重挑战。然而,这些制度安排并未明确将气候变化纳入生态系统提供服务的能力中。在本研究中,我们以智利中部独特的生物多样性热点地区 Altos de Cantillana 自然保护区为例,探讨了为什么以及如何纳入气候不确定性。首先,将优先考虑的生态系统服务(ES)进行分组,并将其与气候变化对关键水相关过程的测量和模拟影响联系起来。其次,从案例研究中发现了生态系统服务补偿的制度障碍,并考虑到气候变化带来的挑战对其进行了分析。最后,将具有不同风险水平的包与六项建议相匹配,以便更好地将气候变化不确定性的风险水平纳入智利的生态系统服务付费中。
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引用次数: 0
Managing a low urban emissions world 管理城市低排放世界
Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00117-1
Rob Lichtman
We have largely ignored serious organization issues blocking urban greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Most urban climate measures treat decision-making as a black box where sensible solutions are simply implemented. We need to re-examine decision-making assumptions about how city governments and businesses actually collaborate and whether current plans are credible. Significant constraints affect both groups and also limit citizens’ abilities to effectively shape policies and investments. These problems can be addressed by creating a trusted, professional, independent organization to drive innovation and implementation to reduce emissions and moderate urban inequality. This “Lowering Emissions Economy Partnership (LEEP)” can be jointly owned by stakeholders who could pool investments and recover a share of the large resource savings this approach will create. Any city could do this drawing upon a range of start-up capital options. This reduces political and financial risks and it can accelerate emission reductions in a more just sustainable way.
我们在很大程度上忽视了阻碍城市温室气体减排的严重组织问题。大多数城市气候措施将决策视为一个黑箱,只需实施合理的解决方案即可。我们需要重新审视决策假设,即城市政府和企业实际上是如何合作的,以及当前的计划是否可信。巨大的制约因素影响着这两个群体,同时也限制了市民有效制定政策和投资的能力。要解决这些问题,可以建立一个值得信赖的、专业的、独立的组织来推动创新和实施,以减少排放和缓和城市不平等。这种 "降低排放经济伙伴关系 (LEEP) "可以由利益相关者共同拥有,他们可以集中投资,并从这种方法所节省的大量资源中收回一部分。任何城市都可以利用一系列启动资金方案来这样做。这样可以降低政治和金融风险,并以更加公正可持续的方式加速减排。
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引用次数: 0
Dream or reality: where is the club for green steel? 梦想还是现实:绿色钢铁俱乐部在哪里?
Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00119-z
Charlotte Unger, Rainer Quitzow
The USA and the EU proposed a ‘Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum (GASSA)’ as the first step towards a carbon club for clean steel in 2021. Yet, visions about the core elements of GASSA, a common standard for green steel and a tariff on ‘dirty’ steel, remain far apart. This comment discusses the international developments, domestic priorities, and structural conditions that enable and constrain the negotiations on GASSA. Ultimately, we argue that if the USA and the EU at least conclude an agreement with a definition for green steel and provide an opportunity for including further partners, this initiative might become a valuable endeavor for industrial decarbonization.
美国和欧盟提出了 "全球可持续钢铁和铝安排(GASSA)",作为 2021 年建立清洁钢铁碳俱乐部的第一步。然而,双方对 "全球可持续钢铁和铝安排 "的核心要素--绿色钢铁的共同标准和对 "肮脏 "钢铁征收关税--的看法仍然相去甚远。本评论将讨论促成和制约 GASSA 谈判的国际发展、国内优先事项和结构性条件。最后,我们认为,如果美国和欧盟至少能就绿色钢铁的定义达成一致,并为纳入更多合作伙伴提供机会,那么这一倡议可能会成为工业去碳化的一项有价值的努力。
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引用次数: 0
Climate-induced migration in the Global South: an in depth analysis 全球南部由气候引起的移民:深入分析
Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00133-1
Abdulaziz I. Almulhim, Gabriela Nagle Alverio, Ayyoob Sharifi, Rajib Shaw, Saleemul Huq, Md Juel Mahmud, Shakil Ahmad, Ismaila Rimi Abubakar
Scientists predict ongoing global climate change to trigger adverse events affecting about 143 million people in the Global South by 2050, leading to various forms of migration and mobility. While existing literature extensively examines climate-induced migration, there is a lack of studies considering the compounding impacts of multiple climate hazards on migration, mobility, and immobility. To address this gap, we conducted a systematic literature review to explore how climate-induced stressors, specifically rising temperatures, water stress and droughts, and floods and sea-level rise, have affected populations in the Global South, leading to voluntary and/or forced migration. Our findings show that these stressors have displaced and profoundly impacted millions of people, resulting in both internal and transboundary migration. Climate-induced stressors often trigger migration through indirect pathways influenced by multiple intervening institutional, political, and socio-economic factors and programmatic and policy gaps. Effectively addressing challenges related to climate-induced migration necessitates adaptation strategies that adequately consider the impacts of these intervening factors while recognizing their differential effects on various socio-demographic groups. We argue that support from Global North countries, including compensation for loss and damage, along with continued institutional and financial support from international non-governmental organizations, is crucial for managing climate-induced migration in the Global South. Without proper planning and adequate resources, migration may escalate and significantly impact human security. The findings of this study can inform climate migration policies and assist adaptation and migration experts in identifying intervention mechanisms and opportunities for people-centered climate solutions.
科学家预测,到 2050 年,持续的全球气候变化将引发影响全球南部约 1.43 亿人的不利事件,导致各种形式的迁移和流动。虽然现有文献广泛研究了气候引起的移民问题,但缺乏考虑多种气候灾害对移民、流动性和不流动性的复合影响的研究。为了弥补这一不足,我们进行了一次系统的文献综述,探讨气候诱发的压力因素,特别是气温升高、水资源紧张和干旱、洪水和海平面上升,是如何影响全球南部人口,从而导致自愿和/或被迫迁移的。我们的研究结果表明,这些压力因素已使数百万人流离失所,并对他们产生了深远影响,导致了境内和跨境移民。气候诱发的压力因素往往通过间接途径引发人口迁移,而这些间接途径受到多重干预性制度、政治和社会经济因素以及计划和政策差距的影响。要有效应对与气候诱发移民相关的挑战,就必须制定适应战略,充分考虑这些干预因素的影响,同时认识到这些因素对不同社会人口群体的不同影响。我们认为,来自全球北方国家的支持,包括对损失和损害的补偿,以及来自国际非政府组织的持续的机构和财政支持,对于管理全球南方国家由气候引起的移民至关重要。如果没有适当的规划和充足的资源,移徙可能会升级并严重影响人类安全。本研究的结果可为气候移民政策提供参考,并帮助适应和移民专家确定干预机制和机会,从而找到以人为本的气候解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Back to basics for the IPCC: applying lessons from AR6 to the Seventh Assessment Cycle 政府间气候变化专门委员会返璞归真:将第六次评估报告的经验教训应用于第七次评估周期
Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00130-4
Raphael Slade, Minal Pathak, Sarah Connors, Melinda Tignor, Andrew Emmanuel Okem, Noëmie Leprince-Ringuet
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been producing influential reports for over 35 years. As the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) cycle begins, we offer our perspective as former members of the IPCC Technical Support Units from Working Groups I, II & III, and the Synthesis Report on lessons learned during the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) cycle. We identify three broad issues that, if addressed, could reinforce and sustain the IPCC in continuing its mission to comprehensively assess the scientific understanding of human-induced climate change. These are the imperative to ensure balanced representation, the importance of author recognition, and the need for improved institutional memory. Our recommendations include addressing skill and training needs, tackling barriers to participation particularly for Global South authors, and ensuring all contributors receive appropriate recognition for their efforts. We focus, in particular, on feasible incremental changes that could be implemented during AR7 without major changes to the underlying procedures that require approval by the 195 member governments that make up the IPCC.
政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 发布有影响力的报告已有 35 年之久。随着 IPCC 第七次评估报告 (AR7) 周期的开始,我们作为 IPCC 第一、第二和第三工作组以及综合报告技术支持小组的前成员,就第六次评估报告 (AR6) 周期中的经验教训提出了我们的观点。我们确定了三大问题,这些问题如果得到解决,可以加强和支持政府间气候变化专门委员会继续履行其全面评估对人类引起的气候变化的科学认识的使命。这三个问题是:必须确保均衡的代表性、对作者的认可的重要性以及改善机构记忆的必要性。我们的建议包括满足技能和培训需求,解决特别是全球南部作者的参与障碍,以及确保所有贡献者的努力得到适当的认可。我们特别关注可行的渐进式变革,这些变革可以在第七次评估报告期间实施,而无需对基本程序做出重大改变,因为这些程序需要得到组成政府间气候变化专门委员会的 195 个成员国政府的批准。
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引用次数: 0
From niches to norms: the promise of social tipping interventions to scale climate action 从利基到规范:扩大气候行动规模的社会倾覆干预承诺
Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00131-3
Veronica Pizziol, Alessandro Tavoni
The net-zero transition poses unprecedented societal challenges that cannot be tackled with technology and markets alone. It requires complementary behavioral and social change on the demand side. Abandoning entrenched detrimental norms, including those that perpetuate the fossil-fueled lock-in, is notoriously difficult, preventing change and limiting policy efficacy. A nascent literature tackles social tipping interventions—STI, aiming at cost-effective disproportionate change by pushing behaviors past an adoption threshold beyond which further uptake is self-reinforcing. Intervening on target groups can greatly reduce the societal cost of a policy and thus holds promise for precipitating change. This article takes stock of the potential of STI to scale climate action by first reviewing the theoretical insights arising from behavioral public policy based on applications of threshold models from sociology and economics; then, it assesses the initial evidence on the effectiveness of STI, in light of the outcomes of laboratory and online experiments that were designed to study coordination on an emergent alternative to the initial status quo. Lastly, the article identifies potential conceptual limitations and proposes fruitful avenues for increasing the robustness of STI assessments beyond theory and small-scale experimentation.
净零过渡带来了前所未有的社会挑战,仅靠技术和市场是无法解决的。它需要需求方在行为和社会方面做出补充性改变。摒弃根深蒂固的有害规范,包括那些使化石燃料锁定永久化的规范,是出了名的困难,会阻碍变革并限制政策效力。新出现的文献探讨了社会临界点干预--STI,旨在通过推动行为超过采用临界点,实现具有成本效益的过度改变,而超过该临界点后,进一步的采用会自我强化。对目标群体进行干预可以大大降低政策的社会成本,从而有望促进变革。本文首先回顾了基于社会学和经济学阈值模型应用的行为公共政策所产生的理论见解,评估了科技创新在扩大气候行动规模方面的潜力;然后,根据实验室和在线实验的结果,评估了科技创新有效性的初步证据。最后,文章指出了潜在的概念局限性,并提出了在理论和小规模实验之外提高科技创新评估稳健性的有效途径。
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引用次数: 0
Rethinking digitalization and climate: don’t predict, mitigate 反思数字化与气候:不要预测,要减缓
Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00127-z
Daria Gritsenko, Jon Aaen, Bent Flyvbjerg
Digitalization is a core component of the green transition. Today’s focus is on quantifying and predicting the climate effects of digitalization through various life-cycle assessments and baseline scenario methodologies. Here we argue that this is a mistake. Most attempts at prediction are based on three implicit assumptions: (a) the digital carbon footprint can be quantified, (b) business-as-usual with episodic change leading to a new era of stability, and (c) investments in digitalization will be delivered within the cost, timeframe, and benefits described in their business cases. We problematize each assumption within the context of digitalization and argue that the digital carbon footprint is inherently unpredictable. We build on uncertainty literature to show that even if you cannot predict, you can still mitigate. On that basis, we propose to rethink practice on the digital carbon footprint from prediction to mitigation.
数字化是绿色转型的核心组成部分。如今的重点是通过各种生命周期评估和基线情景方法来量化和预测数字化对气候的影响。在此,我们认为这是一个错误。大多数预测尝试都基于三个隐含的假设:(a)数字化碳足迹可以量化;(b)一切照旧,偶发变化将导致新的稳定时代;(c)数字化投资将在其商业案例中描述的成本、时间框架和效益范围内实现。我们对数字化背景下的每个假设都提出了质疑,并认为数字碳足迹本质上是不可预测的。我们以不确定性文献为基础,说明即使无法预测,也可以减轻影响。在此基础上,我们建议重新思考从预测到缓解的数字碳足迹实践。
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引用次数: 0
The enablers of adaptation: A systematic review 适应的促进因素:系统回顾
Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00128-y
Tia Brullo, Jon Barnett, Elissa Waters, Sarah Boulter
Knowledge of the practice of climate change adaptation is slowly shifting from a focus on barriers and limits to an understanding of its enablers. Here we take stock of the knowledge on the enablers of adaptation through a systematic review of the literature. Our review of empirical articles explaining how adaptation is enabled finds that there is a tendency in the literature to focus on local-scale case studies. Across all studies, some factors seem to be more important than others, including resources (particularly money), awareness of climate risks and responses, leadership, bridging and bonding social capital, and the support of higher-level institutions. Our analysis also highlights significant gaps in knowledge about enablers, including those that affect change in regional/provincial and national governments, in the private sector, and in non-local not-for-profit and non-governmental organisations.
对气候变化适应实践的认识正在从关注障碍和限制慢慢转向对其促进因素的理解。在此,我们通过对文献的系统回顾,总结了有关适应的促进因素的知识。我们对解释如何促成适应的实证文章进行了综述,发现文献倾向于关注地方规模的案例研究。在所有研究中,有些因素似乎比其他因素更重要,包括资源(尤其是资金)、气候风险和应对措施意识、领导力、桥梁和纽带型社会资本以及上级机构的支持。我们的分析还凸显了在对推动因素的了解方面存在的巨大差距,包括那些影响地区/省和国家政府、私营部门以及非本地非营利组织和非政府组织变革的因素。
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引用次数: 0
Consistency in climate change impact reports among indigenous peoples and local communities depends on site contexts 土著人民和当地社区气候变化影响报告的一致性取决于现场情况
Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00124-2
Christoph Schunko, Santiago Álvarez-Fernández, Petra Benyei, Laura Calvet-Mir, André B. Junqueira, Xiaoyue Li, Anna Porcuna-Ferrer, Anna Schlingmann, Emmanuel M. N. A. N. Attoh, Rosario Carmona, Fasco Chengula, Álvaro Fernández-Llamazares, Priyatma Singh, Miquel Torrents-Ticó, Victoria Reyes-García
Indigenous Peoples and local communities are heavily affected by climatic changes. Investigating local understandings of climate change impacts, and their patterned distribution, is essential to effectively support monitoring and adaptation strategies. In this study, we aimed to understand the consistency in climate change impact reports and factors influencing consistency at site and individual levels. We conducted cross-cultural research among iTaukei (Fiji), Dagomba (Ghana), fisherfolks (Tanzania), Tsimane’ (Bolivia), Bassari (Senegal), ribeirinhos (Brazil), Mapuche (Chile), Mongolian (China), Tibetan (China) and Daasanach (Kenya) communities using semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and surveys among 1860 individuals. We found that cross-culturally more than two-thirds of individual reports of climate change impacts match site-confirmed reports. Consistency in reports is higher for changes related to pastoralism than crop production and wild plant gathering. Individual’s experience with nature, Indigenous and local knowledge, and local family roots are not significantly associated with consistency across sites, but site-specific associations are prevalent. Despite high average consistency among sites, there is considerable variation caused by site-specific factors, including livelihood activities, socio-cultural settings, and environmental conditions. Site contexts and related consistency in climate change impact reports need to be taken into account for climate change monitoring and adaptation planning.
原住民和当地社区深受气候变化的影响。调查当地对气候变化影响的理解及其分布模式,对于有效支持监测和适应战略至关重要。在这项研究中,我们旨在了解气候变化影响报告的一致性,以及在地点和个人层面上影响一致性的因素。我们在 iTaukei(斐济)、Dagomba(加纳)、fisherfolks(坦桑尼亚)、Tsimane'(玻利维亚)、Bassari(塞内加尔)、ribeirinhos(巴西)、Mapuche(智利)、蒙古(中国)、西藏(中国)和 Daasanach(肯尼亚)社区中开展了跨文化研究,使用了半结构式访谈、焦点小组和对 1860 人的调查。我们发现,在不同文化背景下,三分之二以上关于气候变化影响的个人报告与现场确认的报告一致。与农作物生产和野生植物采集相比,与畜牧业相关的变化报告的一致性更高。个人对大自然的体验、土著和地方知识以及当地家庭根基与不同地点的一致性没有显著关联,但与具体地点的关联却很普遍。尽管不同地点之间的平均一致性较高,但地点特定因素(包括生计活动、社会文化背景和环境条件)造成的差异也相当大。在气候变化监测和适应规划中,需要考虑地点背景和气候变化影响报告中的相关一致性。
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引用次数: 0
Enterprise’s strategies to improve financial capital under a climate change scenario – evidence of the leading country 气候变化情景下企业改善金融资本的战略--领先国家的证据
Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00121-5
Quang-Loc Nguyen, Minh-Hoang Nguyen, Viet-Phuong La, Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, Vuong Quan Hoang
Climate change poses manifold consequences to the world’s ecosystems and human well-being. Greenhouse gas emissions reduction and climate-friendly technological innovations at the corporate level are considered effective measures to mitigate climate change. Using the Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) to analyze 178 enterprises listed in the Standard and Poor’s 500 companies from 2016 to 2021, this paper examines how companies’ climate risk-mitigating efforts can affect their market value. We found that emitted carbon dioxide negatively affects the stock price. Meanwhile, companies’ income and climate risk-mitigating efforts, including producing eco-friendly products, using renewable energy, and environmental investments, are positively associated with their share value. However, the effects of these efforts are conditional on the companies’ income. Based on these findings, we suggest that building an eco-surplus culture among investors and improving their climate change knowledge can be a promising approach to promoting a corporation’s mitigation efforts.
气候变化对世界生态系统和人类福祉造成了多方面的影响。企业层面的温室气体减排和气候友好型技术创新被认为是减缓气候变化的有效措施。本文利用贝叶斯明仕亚洲手机版框架(BMF)分析了2016年至2021年标准普尔500强企业中的178家上市企业,研究了企业的气候风险缓解努力如何影响其市场价值。我们发现,排放的二氧化碳会对股票价格产生负面影响。同时,公司的收入和气候风险缓解措施(包括生产环保产品、使用可再生能源和环保投资)与其股票价值呈正相关。然而,这些努力的效果取决于公司的收入。基于这些研究结果,我们认为,在投资者中建立生态盈余文化,提高他们对气候变化的认识,是促进公司减缓气候变化努力的一种可行方法。
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引用次数: 0
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npj Climate Action
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